NFL Betting Preview: Colts at Dolphins
The Monday Night Football matchup features to AFC rivals tonight as the Miami Dolphins host Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts kicked off the 2009 season with a 14-12 win at home over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Manning threw for 301 yards and a touchdown, while Reggie Wayne caught 10 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown, although Indianapolis failed to cover the 6-point spread as favorites.
The Dolphins got off to a rough start last week in Atlanta, dropping a 19-7 decision to the Falcons on the road. Not only did they fail to cover the 4-point spread, but Chad Pennington only threw for 176 yards, was intercepted once and fumbled once. As a team, Miami committed four turnovers in the loss.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sports Interaction have made the Colts 3.5-point road favorites over the Dolphins tonight. The over/under total for this matchup has been set at 42.
The last time these two teams met was in December of 2006 when the Colts edged the Dolphins 27-22 in Indianapolis. The Colts also beat the Dolphins 23-17 in Miami on November 2 of 2003.
It’s highly unlikely that the Dolphins turn the ball over four times in this game like they did last week against the Falcons. One advantage Pennington and the rest of Miami’s offense has in this game is that Colts’ All-Pro safety Bob Sanders won’t play due to a knee injury. Without him patrolling the secondary for Indy, Pennington can concentrate on finding open receivers across the middle like he does so well.
The key for Miami will be slowing down Manning and the Colts’ high-powered offense. Indy didn’t run the ball well last week, so if they can’t get Joseph Addai going again tonight, then the Dolphins’ corners will be counted on to contain Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark.
We love the home team getting points and think that the Dolphins will be more prepared then they were last week. We see this being a three-point game either way and we recommend fading the public in this one, which currently loves the Colts. (Of the 51,641 bets placed on tonight’s game, 74% favor Indianapolis according to our public betting charts.)
The total has gone over in four of Miami’s last five games when playing in Indianapolis. Check the weather reports tonight to make sure that no rain is in the area. If it’s clear skies (it’s supposed to be), then we recommend taking the over.
Our NFL Free Picks for this Week 2 matchup are: MIAMI DOLPHINS +3.5 and OVER 42.
Colts at Dolphins Current Odds
235 Indianapolis Colts –3.5 Over 42 Moneyline –170
236 Miami Dolphins +3.5 Under 42 Moneyline +150
NFL Week 2 Betting Trends
Indianapolis is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Indianapolis's last 12 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
NFL Week 2 Injury Report
Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Out Week 2 (knee)
Bob Sanders, S, Out Week 2 (knee)
Tom Santi, TE, Out Week 2 (ankle)
Charlie Johnson, T, Questionable Week 2 (back)
Jerraud Powers, DB, Questionable Week 2 (groin)
Jamey Richard, G, Questionable Week 2 (shoulder)
Gijon Robinson, TE, Questionable Week 2 (back)
Jamie Silva, CB, Questionable Week 2 (abdomen)
Miami Dolphins
Akin Ayodele, LB, Questionable Week 2 (back)