Betting Recap - Week 1
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
National Football League Week 1 Results
Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 6-7
Home-Away
Straight Up 5-8
Against the Spread 7-6
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 3-10
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Chiefs (+9, ML +400) at Patriots, 42-27
Jaguars (+6, ML +200) at Texans, 29-7
The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-7.5) vs. Jets, 21-12
Cowboys (-6) vs. Giants, 19-3
Panthers (-5) at 49ers, 23-3
First Bad Beat of 2017
The Arizona Cardinals-Detroit Lions game appeared to be headed for an 'under' (48.5) result through three quarters, with Arizona leading just 17-15. However, that's when the scoring machine revved up. Matthew Stafford tossed a pair of touchdown strikes to rookie Kenny Golladay, pushing the lead to 28-17 with 4:13. It appeared that an under could still be possible, perhaps if the Cardinals settled for the field goal and then a potential onside kick and touchdown with a two-point conversion. However, once Arizona got the ball back it was Carson Palmer hurt by the pick-six, as Miles Killebrew took it back 35 yards to push the total 'over'. To add insult to injury, JJ Nelson found the end zone with 1:33 remaining for a total of 58 points.
Bad Beat - Part Deux
The Pittsburgh Steelers were in trouble to start in their road game against the Cleveland Browns, never covering until 3:50 left in the third quarter. Still, bettors were rejoicing midway through the third quarter as it appeared the Steelers were waking up and taking control. Up 21-10 with a 9.5-point number, the Steelers yielded a touchdown and two-point conversion with 3:05 left in regulation, closing the lead to 21-18. That's how the game ended, as Pittsburgh amassed just 255 total yards of offense.
Total Recall
It was a high-scoring game on Thursday night football, as Kansas City-New England (48) started the week with 69 total points and a bang. So the first full weekend of regular season action was going to feature plenty of high-scoring battles, right? Wrong. The 'under' dominated with a 10-3 mark through Sunday's action with two Monday Night Football games remaining.
Two games -- Oakland-Tennessee (50.5) and Seattle-Green Bay (50) had lines over 50, but neither game really threated to go over. The Raiders scored 10 points in the fourth quarter for the only double-digit quarter by either side, winning 26-16. The points were at even more of a premium at Lambeau Field, as there was no score after 15 minutes and just three total points at halftime. The over never had a chance. The third-highest total on the board was Philadelphia-Washington (49.5), but progress was stunted when each team only exchanged field goals in the third quarter. Philly ended up with an 11-point flurry in the fourth, but the 'over' came up just short at 47.
There was just one game with a line of 40 or less, Jacksonville-Houston (38). The horrendous showing by Texans QB Tom Savage helped 'under' bettors, as the home team was scoreless and in disarray in the first half. Rookie DeShaun Watson led them to seven in the second half, but the under ended up just coming in under the number with 36 total points. Who would have thought the Jags would drop 29 points and the total would still go under?
The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 1. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.
Injury Report
Bears WR Kevin White (collarbone) might be done for the season (again!), this time due to a potential broken collarbone. He is expected to be placed on the season-ending Reserve/Injured list.
Cardinals RB David Johnson (wrist) suffered a wrist injury in Week 1 at Detroit. He attempted to return to the game, but left for good in the second half. He'll undergo an MRI on Monday to determine if he will be sidelined for a game or two.
Jaguars WR Allen Robinson (knee) is done for the season after suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament in Sunday's victory in Houston.
Ravens RB Danny Woodhead (hamstring) was battling a hamstring injury in the preseason and he apparently aggravated the injury in the first half of his team debut, checking out early.
Looking Ahead
The Ravens posted a 20-0 win over the Bengals, while the Browns were on the short end of a 21-18 score. The two AFC North rivals will battle in Charm City in Week 2. Cleveland is 1-10-1 ATS over their past 12 games against teams with a winning record, and they're 1-10-1 ATS in their past 12 against the AFC North (although they did cover Sunday!), while going 0-3-1 ATS across their past four on the road. Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in their past 10 AFC North affairs.
The Jaguars won their opening game in impressive fashion, but they'll have to go along without Robinson now. Still, they look to improve on a 4-0 ATS mark over their past four against divisional mates.On the flip side, Week 2 opponent Tennessee is just 13-35-3 ATS over their past 51 games against divisional foes. The Titans are also 7-19-1 ATS in their past 27 on the road. The Titans are also 1-5-2 ATS in the past eight meetings, and 0-5-1ATS in their past six trips to Jacksonville.
In another divisional matchup, the 49ers and Seahawks will square off in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle will be ornery after a loss in Green Bay, while the San Francisco offense was listless in a 23-3 setback at home to Carolina in front of a scant crowd. The 49ers have struggled against the Seahawks, going just 1-9-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings, and 0-5-1 ATS in their past six trips to Century Link Field.
Wrapping up NFL Sunday
Chiefs 42, Patriots 27— Chiefs scored 28 second half points, ran up 537 yards, offsetting 139 penalty yards, as they made New England’s defense look slow. Only one of KC’s six TD drives was less than 75 yards- they had touchdown PLAYS of 75, 78 yards. Surprising result, but last three times New England lost in Week 1, they won the Super Bowl that year.
Bills 21, Jets 12— Buffalo sits alone atop AFC East, holding Jets to 38 rushing yards and 11 first downs. As far as team points over/unders go, my new hobby here, under is 18-7-1— only 7 of 26 teams exceeded their over/under points so far this week. Jets’ total was 15.5, 1.5 points lower than any other team this week.
Falcons 23, Bears 17— Chicago had ball on 10-yard line when game ended; two passes were either dropped/broken up inside 2-yard line in last three plays. Falcons coach Quinn was VERY happy when this game ended and he let it show— not sure happy is right word, maybe total relief after that Super Bowl and then an 0-4 preseason.
Jaguars 29, Texans 7— Upset of Day. Jacksonville ran ball for 155 yards, were +4 in turnovers, and held QB-challenged Houston to 203 yards. Savage was awful in first half; rookie QB Watson played second half, led one TD drive, but this was another very disappointing day in Houston.
Eagles 30, Redskins 17— Philly’s two TD drives were only 56-39 yards; each team scored a defensive TD, as Eagles snapped a 5-game skid against Washington. Iggles converted 8-14 on 3rd down, Redskins only 3-14, as Philly scored TD’s on two of first four drives, then kicked three FG’s on their last six drives.
Lions 35, Cardinals 23— On their first nine drives, Detroit had one TD, one FG, gaining total of 182 yards, but on their last three drives, Lions ran 17 plays for 149 yards and three TD’s. I have a question: is conditioning a factor early in the season? Teams haven’t played full games because coaches are scared of injuries, so when they have to play a full game in Week 1, are some teams in worse shape than others? Arizona’s defense looked very tired at the end.
Raiders 26, Titans 16— One of two games this week (Atl-Chi) with no turnovers. For the week so far, home teams are 7-6 vs spread; over is 3-10. Listening to TV Sunday, the consensus is that the defenses are ahead of offenses in the first couple weeks of the season. Offense takes more precision. Titans were 7-14 on 3rd down but scored only one TD, kicked three FG’s.
Ravens 20, Bengals 0— Baltimore led 3-0 at 2:00 warning of first half, then scored two TD’s in 0:24 span to break game open and lead 17-0 at half. Total yardage in lackluster game was 268-221 Baltimore; Ravens had 85 penalty yards, while Bengals turned ball over five times (-4). Flacco was 9-17/111 passing, after missing just about the whole summer with a bad back.
Steelers 21, Browns 18— Cleveland is now 1-18 in Week 1, with only win 13 years ago. Steelers blocked punt for TD on Browns’ first drive, then survived 144 penalty yards to win their opener. Pittsburgh ran 17 times for only 35 yards, which is not good; Big Ben targeted Brown 11 times, and he caught all 11 passes for 182 yards.
Rams 46, Colts 9— Indy has severe QB issues; if Andrew Luck can’t come back soon, and he hasn’t started practicing yet, they should sign Colin Kaepernick, who is way better than either Tolzien or Brissett. As for the Rams, this was a great day; Jared Goff looked like an NFL QB and the defense was dominant, even without Aaron Donald.
Packers 17, Seahawks 9— Game was scoreless until just before the half; this was 5th time in Seattle’s last nine road games that they scored 10 or less points. Rodgers was a magician on third down (9-16), as usual; Green Bay held Seahawks to 12 first downs as Seattle lost its 8th game in a row at Lambeau Field.
Panthers 23, 49ers 3— Hard to tell much about Carolina’s offense; their two TD drives were only 42-28 yards. Total yardage was 287-217; Panthers were 7-13 on third down- they didn’t score on any of their drives that started 75+ yards from the goal line, but scored two TD’s, kicked three FG’s on the other five drives that started less than 75 yards from the goal line.
Cowboys 19, Giants 3— Dallas outgained Giants 392-233; New York ran ball only 12 times for 35 yards, converted only 4-12 on third down- their average starting field position was their own 16 yard line. Under is now 8-1 in Giants’ last nine road games; they are 5-10-2 vs spread in last 17 games as a road underdog. Cowboys converted 8-15 on third down, had a 13-yard edge in average starting field position.
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