NFL Betting Recap - Week 1
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
National Football League Week 1 Results
Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 10-5
Against the Spread 7-7-1
Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 8-6-1
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 5-10
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Chiefs (+9, ML +400) at Patriots, 42-27
Jaguars (+6, ML +200) at Texans, 29-7
The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-7.5) vs. Jets, 21-12
Cowboys (-6) vs. Giants, 19-3
Panthers (-5) at 49ers, 23-3
First Bad Beat of 2017
The Arizona Cardinals-Detroit Lions game appeared to be headed for an 'under' (48.5) result through three quarters, with Arizona leading just 17-15. However, that's when the scoring machine revved up. Matthew Stafford tossed a pair of touchdown strikes to rookie Kenny Golladay, pushing the lead to 28-17 with 4:13. It appeared that an under could still be possible, perhaps if the Cardinals settled for the field goal and then a potential onside kick and touchdown with a two-point conversion. However, once Arizona got the ball back it was Carson Palmer hurt by the pick-six, as Miles Killebrew took it back 35 yards to push the total 'over'. To add insult to injury, JJ Nelson found the end zone with 1:33 remaining for a total of 58 points.
Bad Beat - Part Deux
The Pittsburgh Steelers were in trouble to start in their road game against the Cleveland Browns, never covering until 3:50 left in the third quarter. Still, bettors were rejoicing midway through the third quarter as it appeared the Steelers were waking up and taking control. Up 21-10 with a 9.5-point number, the Steelers yielded a touchdown and two-point conversion with 3:05 left in regulation, closing the lead to 21-18. That's how the game ended, as Pittsburgh amassed just 255 total yards of offense.
Total Recall
It was a high-scoring game on Thursday night football, as Kansas City-New England (48) started the week with 69 total points and a bang. So the first full weekend of regular season action was going to feature plenty of high-scoring battles, right? Wrong. The 'under' dominated with a 10-3 mark through Sunday's action with two Monday Night Football games remaining.
Two games -- Oakland-Tennessee (50.5) and Seattle-Green Bay (50) had lines over 50, but neither game really threated to go over. The Raiders scored 10 points in the fourth quarter for the only double-digit quarter by either side, winning 26-16. The points were at even more of a premium at Lambeau Field, as there was no score after 15 minutes and just three total points at halftime. The over never had a chance. The third-highest total on the board was Philadelphia-Washington (49.5), but progress was stunted when each team only exchanged field goals in the third quarter. Philly ended up with an 11-point flurry in the fourth, but the 'over' came up just short at 47.
There was just one game with a line of 40 or less, Jacksonville-Houston (38). The horrendous showing by Texans QB Tom Savage helped 'under' bettors, as the home team was scoreless and in disarray in the first half. Rookie DeShaun Watson led them to seven in the second half, but the under ended up just coming in under the number with 36 total points. Who would have thought the Jags would drop 29 points and the total would still go under?
The 'over/under' is 3-1 through the first four primetime games of the 2017 season. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.
Injury Report
Bears WR Kevin White (collarbone) might be done for the season (again!), this time due to a potential broken collarbone. He is expected to be placed on the season-ending Reserve/Injured list.
Cardinals RB David Johnson (wrist) suffered a wrist injury in Week 1 at Detroit. He attempted to return to the game, but left for good in the second half. He'll undergo an MRI on Monday to determine if he will be sidelined for a game or two.
Jaguars WR Allen Robinson (knee) is done for the season after suffering a torn anterior cruciate ligament in Sunday's victory in Houston.
Ravens RB Danny Woodhead (hamstring) was battling a hamstring injury in the preseason and he apparently aggravated the injury in the first half of his team debut, checking out early.
Looking Ahead
The Ravens posted a 20-0 win over the Bengals, while the Browns were on the short end of a 21-18 score. The two AFC North rivals will battle in Charm City in Week 2. Cleveland is 1-10-1 ATS over their past 12 games against teams with a winning record, and they're 1-10-1 ATS in their past 12 against the AFC North (although they did cover Sunday!), while going 0-3-1 ATS across their past four on the road. Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in their past 10 AFC North affairs.
The Jaguars won their opening game in impressive fashion, but they'll have to go along without Robinson now. Still, they look to improve on a 4-0 ATS mark over their past four against divisional mates.On the flip side, Week 2 opponent Tennessee is just 13-35-3 ATS over their past 51 games against divisional foes. The Titans are also 7-19-1 ATS in their past 27 on the road. The Titans are also 1-5-2 ATS in the past eight meetings, and 0-5-1ATS in their past six trips to Jacksonville.
In another divisional matchup, the 49ers and Seahawks will square off in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle will be ornery after a loss in Green Bay, while the San Francisco offense was listless in a 23-3 setback at home to Carolina in front of a scant crowd. The 49ers have struggled against the Seahawks, going just 1-9-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings, and 0-5-1 ATS in their past six trips to Century Link Field.