NFL: Betting Recap - Week 1

Betting Recap - Week 1
September 10, 2018
By Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 1 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-4-1
Against the Spread 7-6-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-5-1
Against the Spread 7-6-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-6

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+10, ML +425) at Saints, 48-40
Chiefs (+3.5, ML +165) at Chargers, 38-28
Redskins (+2.5. ML +115) at Cardinals, 24-6

The largest favorite to cover
Ravens (-8) vs. Bills, 47-3
Vikings (-6.5) vs. 49ers, 24-16
Patriots (-6) vs. Texans, 27-20

Kissing Your Sister

-- It's been said a tie is like kissing your sister. Kissing your sister sounds like a loss to me. Anyway, the Pittsburgh Steelers likely feel like they suffered a loss in their Week 1 game on the road against the rival Cleveland Browns. The Browns were more likely to come out of this game feeling good about themselves, erasing a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter to snap a 17-game losing streak, albeit not with a victory. Still, their 0-0-1 record signifies Cleveland's best start since the 2004 season. How bad is that? It was also the league's first tie in the opening weekend of the regular season since 1971, and first in the NFL since Oct. 30, 2016.

Bad Beat Time...

-- It isn't officially football season until there is a bad beat. Moneyline bettors for the Chicago Bears (+7, ML +260) and 'under' (45) bettors took it in the shorts when Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (knee) returned from the medical tent, cart and locker room to play in the second half. The Packers ralled from a 20-0 deficit to pick up a 24-23 win against the Bears. Chicago kicked a field goal with 2:39 to go, taking a 23-17 lead. It appeared all hope with 2:13 to go in regulation and the Packers in their own end trailing by six with a 3rd and 10. However, Rodgers dropped one off to WR Randall Cobb across the middle and he did the rest, squirting free for a 75-yard touchdown to miraculously take a 24-23 lead. The 10 points in the final 2:39 push the total from 'under' to 'over', and it killed moneyline bettors who had watched the Bears tied or in the lead for the first 57:47 of the game.

Total Recall

-- The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon wreaked havoc on the Midwest and East Coast during Saturday's college football schedule, and the rain shield was firmly in place over Northeast Ohio for the Steelers-Browns game. The right call was the 'under' (41) in this one, as there were just seven points on the board at halftime, and 28 points on the board after three quarters. However, the Browns decided to resemble and NFL caliber club in the fourth quarter, and they took advantage of a couple of miscues by the Steelers to rally for a 14-point quarter and a tie. Even if there were a score in the overtime period, the 'over' was already in the books.

-- The highest total on the board was that way for a reason. In the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-New Orleans Saints battle, the Vegas oddsmakers weren't put off by the fact backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was under center for the suspended QB Jameis Winston. It was a smart call, as the Bucs nearly took care of the 'over' themselves with 48 points. They posted 14 points in the first quarter, 17 points in the second and 10 points in the third before cooling off for just seven in the final period. The Saints scored 10 or more points in the first, second and fourth in this insanely entertaining battle under the dome. No rain here to slow things down.

-- The Buffalo Bills-Baltimore Ravens (38.5) was the lowest listed game on the board, but someone apparently forgot to tell the Ravens that they weren't a good offensively club. They ran roughshod over the Bills, firing out to a 26-0 lead to make 'under' bettors feeling uneasy. It got worse, as they took a 40-0 lead before the end of the third quarter when the Bills finally got on the board with a field goal.

-- There are three primetime games in Week 1, with one already in the books and an 'under' result 0-1 (0.0%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Buccaneers WR DeSean Jackson (concussion) suffered a concussion in Sunday's game in New Orleans. He'll have to go through the league's mandated concussion protocol before he is cleared to return.

-- Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) checked out of the game against the New York Giants and he was unable to return.

-- Panthers TE Greg Olsen (foot) left Sunday's game against Dallas in the first half due to a foot injury, and he returned to the sidelined on crutches while wearing a walking. It's the same foot he injured in the 2017 season.

-- Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin (knee) sustained a sprained medial collateral ligament in the first half Sunday's game in Denver and he was unable to return.

-- It was a long afternoon for the Titans due to lengthy lightning delays. It got even longer when play resumed in Miami, as QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) suffered an elbow injury, and he missed most of the second half. TE Delanie Walker (ankle) suffered a dislocated ankle and associated fracture and he is expected to be out for the season.

Looking Ahead

-- The Ravens will look to carry over their momentum into Thursday's game with the Bengals in a battle of 1-0 clubs in the AFC North. Cincinnati has won seven of the past nine in this series straight-up while going 6-3 ATS during the span. Cincinnati has won five of the past six at Paul Brown Stadium against Baltimore while going 4-2 ATS. The underdog has cashed in seven of the past eight in this series, too. In addition, the 'under' is 4-1 in the past five meetings overall between these rivals.

-- The Dolphins and Jets will do battle at MetLife Stadium and it has been a coin-flip series lately. The teams are 4-4 SU/ATS against each other over the past eight meetings, with a slight edge to the 'over' 5-3. The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, however.

-- The Chargers and Bills each lost their opening games, although Buffalo was a lot worse overall in a 47-3 embarrassment in Baltimore. These teams met in Los Angeles last season, with the Chargers coming away with a 54-24 victory on Nov. 19 to cover a seven-point spread.

-- The Panthers will travel to meet the Falcons, and that never seems to end well for Carolina. They're 1-4 SU/ATS over the past five meetings, and they have lost three straight in Georgia. When these teams get together it's usually a defensive battle, as the 'under' is 8-1-1 over the past 10 meetings in this series, including 2-0 last year.
-- The Cowboys host the Giants are Jerry World, and Dallas is looking for its third straight win in this series. While Dallas is 2-5 ATS in the past seven meetings, they won and covered both in 2017. The 'under has also cashed in each of the past four meetings in this series.