NFL: Betting Recap - Week 16

Betting Recap - Week 16
December 25, 2017
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 16 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 7-6-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 10-4
Against the Spread 9-4-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 3-11

HAPPY HOLIDAYS, EVERYONE!!!

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Seahawks (+4.5, ML + ) at Cowboys, 21-12
49ers (+4, ML + ) vs. Rams, 44-33
Bengals (+3, ML + ) vs. Lions, 26-17

The largest favorite to cover
Chiefs (-11) vs. Dolphins, 29-13
Patriots (-11) vs. Bills, 37-16
Vikings (-9) at Packers, 16-0

Kansas City Barbeque

-- The Kansas City Chiefs are finally back on track after taking a few weeks off in the middle of the season. The Chiefs opened 5-0 SU/ATS in the first five weeks, went 1-6 SU/ATS over the next seven weeks, and now are rolling again as they have clinched the AFC West Division and heading for the playoffs. Since Week 14 the Chiefs are 3-0 SU/ATS and they have found their defense again, too. The 'under' is a perfect 3-0 over the past three weeks, and 6-1 across the past seven as they look like the contender they were in the beginning of the season rather than the pretender we saw for half of October and most of November.

Feeling Minnesota

-- The Minnesota Vikings are showing no signs of letting up as they march to the playoffs in hopes of becoming the first team in National Football League history to play the Super Bowl in their own stadium. In fact, as this rate they might not have to leave their own building for the playoffs, either. The Vikings have allowed single-digit point totals in four of the past six games as their defense reigns supreme, and we all know defense wins championships. Minnesota has won 10 of their past 11 games and they're an impressive 8-1 ATS over the past nine games, too.

Total Recall

-- Vegas expected the Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans game (52) to be a shootout, but for the second time in three weeks this NFC South Division battle went 'under'. They met on Dec. 7 and the Falcons won 20-17 with the same exact 52-point line, and the Saints won the rematch 23-13 in the Big Easy on Christmas Eve. Bettors should have known better, as the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 across the past four games for Atlanta and 9-3 over the past 12 outings. The 'under' has been a semi-frequent occurence for the Saints, too, going 7-4 across their past 11 outings.

-- A shootout was expected in what was essentially an elimination game between the Seattle Seahawks-Dallas Cowboys. It wasn't close to happening, and it didn't help that the first half was completely scoreless. The pace picked up in the middle quarters, but it safely went 'under' with the Seahawks winning 21-12. Tampa Bay-Carolina (47) was also expected to be rather high scoring, especially with the Bucs ranked last in pass defense. However, the NFC South battle turned into a field-goal fest, with just two offensive touchdowns, a special teams touchdown and seven field goals.

-- Even with a line of 36.5, Cleveland-Chicago never threatened to go 'over' the total. The Bears led the game 6-3 at halftime in a battle which resembled a preseason contest. In fact, these teams meet frequently on the exhibition schedule. The 'under' is 4-0-1 for Chicago over the past five outings, with the 'under' going 3-1 over the past four as these two non-contenders limp to the finish line. The other two games with totals in the 30's -- Denver-Washington (39) and N.Y. Giants-Arizona (39.5) -- both cashed the 'under'. In fact, the Giants were blanked, one of two teams to get shut out in Week 16 to help 'under' bettors.

-- The 'Under' went 1-0 from the lone primetime game Saturday, with no Sunday night contest due to the holiday. The 'over' is 25-22-1 (53.1%) through the first 48 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's Oakland-Philadelphia (46) game still pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Chargers RB Melvin Gordon (ankle) left with an ankle injury, and he was unable to return after the fourth-quarter injury. His status for the regular-season finale is up in the air.

-- Titans RB DeMarco Murray (knee) suffered what is believed to be a sprained lateral collateral ligament in his knee, with an MRI pending.

Looking Ahead

-- The Cowboys and Eagles meet in Week 17. Dallas was eliminated from playoff contention, while the Eagles continue to jockey for position in the NFC playoff picture. Philly went to Dallas and humbled the Cowboys 37-9 back on Nov. 19 on Sunday Night Football, but that also came with QB Carson Wentz under center before his season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. The Cowboys are struggling down the stretch, going 2-4-1 ATS over the past seven games with the 'under' going 7-1 over the past eight, including that first matchup with the Eagles.

-- The Browns and Steelers met in Week 1, with Pittsburgh winning 21-18 in Cleveland as a 10-point favorite. It was a rare cover for the Browns, who are 1-7 ATS over their past eight and 2-12 ATS since that opening game loss. In fact, the three-point loss in the opener might have been Cleveland's best performance of the season. Can they avoid NFL history and an 0-16 record by upsetting their rivals in the Steel City?
-- The Falcons enter an important NFC South battle with the Panthers as a three-point favorite. These sides met in Charlotte back on Nov. 5, and it was the Panthers coming away with a 20-17 victory with the 'under' cashing. It will be the first meeting between these teams are Atlanta's brand new Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but Julio Jones went for 300 yards receiving in the most recent meeting in Atlanta, something Carolina will be working to avoid.

-- Both the Packers and Lions will be home for the holidays, as both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Lions are looking to finish up strong, and they exorcised many demons with a 30-17 win in Green Bay back on Nov. 6. Detroit has covered two of their past three games and they're playing much better, while the 'under' has hit in three straight. Green Bay has their backup quarterback taking them to the finish line, and they're 4-6 ATS over the past 10 outings. Sunday's 'under', a result of a shutout loss to Minnesota, was the first under after four consecutive 'over' results.