NFL: Betting Recap - Week 16

Betting Recap - Week 16
December 24, 2018
By Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 16 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 12-3
Against the Spread 5-8-2
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 1-12-2
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8-1
National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 154-82-2
Against the Spread 104-124-10
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 143-93-2
Against the Spread 112-116-10
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 110-126-2

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Ravens (+4, ML +180) at Chargers, 22-10
Jaguars (+3, ML +150) at Dolphins, 17-7

The largest favorite to cover
Rams (-14) at Cardinals, 31-9
Vikings (-6.5) at Lions, 27-9
Bears (-3.5) at 49ers, 14-9

Road Kings

-- It was a great day to beat the road teams. Heading into the Sunday Night Football game between the Kansas City Chiefs-Seattle Seahawks the away team was 12-0-2 against the spread (ATS). The Seahawks ended up being the first home team to cover, as they entered the SNF game as short 'dogs (+1) at CenturyLink Field.

Dressed To The Nines

-- It's more of a coincidence than anything else, obviously, but it's fun if you like numbers. The teams which covered the highest spreads in Week 16 each allowed nine points. The Los Angeles Rams laid the most points (-14) in their 31-9 road win over the Arizona Cardinals. The Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) won and covered 27-9 on the road against the Detroit Lions. The Chicago Bears also posted a 14-9 win against the San Francisco 49ers in a chippy game, covering a 3.5-point number at most shops.

Total Recall

-- The game with the highest total on the board was the Kansas City Chiefs-Seattle Seahawks (54.5), and it got off to a bit of a slow start. However, it ended up going well over with 45 total points in the second half. The Pittsburgh Steelers-New Orleans Saints (53.5) game was expected to be a shootout, and it didn't disappoint. While there were 52 points on the board through three quarters, there were some tense moments for a bit in the fourth with just seven total points, but it cashed the over.

-- Perhaps the worst bad beat of the season occurred in the Washington Redskins-Tennessee Titans (38) game on Saturday night. It's the kind of game you're likely to see on ESPN's 'Bad Beats' segment with Scott Van Pelt and Stanford Steve. The Titans were leading 18-16 on the final, last gasp for the Redskins. DB Malcolm Butler picked off a pass with no time left and rather than go down, he worked as hard as possible to run it back all the way for a pick-six. It flipped what should have been an 'under' result to an 'over', and affected some teaser plays, too.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 this week through the first two primetime games with the Monday nighter between the Denver Broncos-Oakland Raiders (43.5) still pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 25-24 (51.0%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Colts TE Eric Ebron (concussion) left the Week 16 battles against the Giants and he entered the league's mandated concussion protocol.

-- Falcons RB Tevin Coleman (groin) was unable to return to Sunday's game in Carolina, leaving Atlanta down its top three running backs.

-- 49ers RB Matt Breida (ankle) left the Week 16 battle against the Bears after turning an ankle and he was unable to return.

-- Texans WR Demaryius Thomas (Achilles') was forced out of Sunday's game in Philadelphia and he might have suffered a long-term injury.

Looking Ahead

-- The 'over' has cashed in six straight meetings between the Lions and Packers. The favorite is 20-7 ATS in the past 27 in this series, and the Lions are 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to Lambeau.

-- The over is 4-1 in the past battle between the Falcons and Buccaneers, although the under is 5-2 in the past seven at the RayJay. The favorite is 11-4-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings.

-- The over has hit in five straight betweeen the Panthers and Saints under the dome, and the over is 7-2 in the past nine in this series. The Panthers are 13-5 ATS in the past 18 trips to NOLA, with the underdog 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings. The road team is also 24-11 ATS in the past 35.

-- The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. The under is 19-8 in the past 27 meetings, with the under 16-5 in the past 21 in K.C.

-- The under is 5-0 in the past five between the Jets and Patriots. The home team is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight, although the Jets are 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 in this series.

-- The Jaguars are 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven trips to Houston, with the road team 4-1 ATS in the past five and the underdog also 4-1 ATS in the past five.

-- The home team is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 battles between the Dolphins and Bills, with Miami 1-5 ATS in the past six trips to Buffalo.

-- The under has connected in five straight meetings between the Cowboys and the Giants.

-- The favorite has hit in four straight meetings between the Eagles and Redskins.

-- Chicago is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings with Minnesota, although the home team is 23-9 ATS in the past 32 meetings. The under is 10-4 in the past 14 meetings, including 5-2 in the past seven in the Twin Cities.

-- The Cardinals are 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings with the Seahawks, and they're 4-1 ATS in the past five in Seattle. The road team is also 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight, with the underdog 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven.

-- The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and 4-1 ATS in the past five road games against the Rams.

-- Cincinnati is 7-19-1 ATS in the past 27 meetings with the Steelers, including 1-4 ATS in the past five trips to the Steel City. The under is also 7-2 in the past nine meetings in Pittsburgh.

-- The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings between the Chargers and Broncos, while the Bolts are 8-2-5 ATS in the past 15 trips to the Mile High City. The over is 4-0 in the past four battles in Denver.

-- The Browns are just 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings with the Ravens, although the road team is 12-5-1 ATS in the past 18 in this series. The under has cashed in four straight meetings, and the under is 6-1 in the past seven battles in Charm City.

-- The home team has covered in five of the past seven trips, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The Colts are 11-3 ATS in the past 14 in the series with the over 4-1 in the past five meetings in the Music City.