Betting Recap - Week 2
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
National Football League Week 2 Results
Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-4
Against the Spread 8-7
Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 8-7
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8-1
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Texans (+5.5, ML +190) at Bengals, 13-9
Dolphins (+3.5, ML +160) at Chargers, 19-17
Redskins (+3, ML +135) at Rams, 27-20
The largest favorite to cover
Raiders (-14) vs. Jets, 45-20
Steelers (-8.5) vs. Vikings, 26-9
Ravens (-7.5) vs. Browns, 24-10
Buccaneers (-7) vs. Bears, 29-7
Patriots (-6) at Saints, 36-20
Getting Defensive
The Carolina Panthers allowed just three points for the second consecutive week, and it's no surprise the 'under' has come in both times. The defense will eventually give up scores, but will the offense ever score? They have averaged just 16.0 PPG through the first two outings and now the team will have TE Greg Olsen on the sidelines for a substantial period due to a broken foot. The 'under' is now 5-0-1 over their past six games overall and 8-2-1 over their past 11 outings. They welcome the New Orleans Saints to Bank of America Stadium in Week 3. The 'under' cashed last season in their meeting in Charlotte, and the total has gone under in three of the past four meetings in Carolina. However, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.
Charm City Covers
The Baltimore Ravens have opened the season 2-0 SU/ATS, winning by an average of 17.0 PPG against a pair of divisional opponents. The 'under' has also hit in each of their two outings, as the offense is giving up just 5.0 PPG while scoring 22.0 PPG. The Ravens will head overseas in Week 3 to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. The 'over' cashed in two of the three London games last season, and that was also the case in 2016. In fact, the 'over' has hit in nine of the past 12 NFL games played in the United Kingdom.
Total Recall
Sunday Night Football saw a high-scoring results, as Green Bay-Atlanta (55) went 'over' despite being tied for the highest total on the board. In fact, both the SNF game and New England-New Orleans (55) both ended up inching over the total
Two games -- Houston-Cincinnati (38.5) and Cleveland-Baltimore (39.5) were the lowest numbers on the board in Week 2, but the two games still ended up going well under the total. In fact, the Texans scored the only touchdown in a low-scoring TNF game, while the AFC North battle between the Browns and Ravens featured just three total TDs. Like Baltimore, the 'under' has cashed in each of Cleveland's two games to kick off 2017. In fact, all four AFC Central Division teams have had the 'under' go 2-0 through two outings.
The Houston Texans have also struggled on offense, averaging just 11.0 PPG through two games. The 'under' is a perfect 2-0 for Houston, too, although that will be put to the text next week when they travel to meet New England. The opening line for that game is 44, and was already bet down a half-point as of early Monday morning. These teams met last season in Foxboro, and it was the Patriots winning by a 27-0 score for the 'under', and the under has hit in each of the past two meetings across the past two seasons.
The 'over/under' is 4-2 through the first six primetime games of the 2017 season, with the Monday night game still on deck. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.
Injury Report
Browns WR Corey Coleman (hand) might have suffered a broken bone in his hand in the Week 2 loss in Baltimore. He missed six weeks with a similar injury in 2016.
Packers WR Jordan Nelson (quadriceps) was forced out of the Sunday Night game in the first quarter at Atlanta due to a quadriceps injury and he was unable to return. WR Randall Cobb (shoulder) also left early.
Panthers TE Greg Olsen (foot) suffered a broken bone in his foot and he is expected to miss significant time.
Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (groin) left Sunday's game in New Orleans due to a groin injury and he was unable to return, while RB Rex Burkhead (ribs) also departed early, as did WR Phillip Dorsett (knee).
Looking Ahead
The Rams travel to meet the 49ers on Thursday night. San Francisco finished 2-14 SU/5-11 ATS last season, but they won and covered both meetings against the Rams. In fact, the 49ers blanked the Rams 28-0 in Week 1 to kick off their season, and they're 3-1 SU/ATS across the past four meetings in Santa Clara.
The Jets will host the Dolphins in Week 3, their first home game of the season. The Dolphins will be playing on the road for the second straight weekend, and they haven't been home yet after Hurricane Irma wiped out their opening game. New York is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings in this series, although Miami swept the season series (2-0 SU/ATS) in 2016. The Jets have dropped four of the past five meetings at home against the Fins.
The Eagles host the Giants, and Philly hopes to maintain its dominance against their NFC East rivals. The Eages are 5-1 SU/ATS over the past six meetings in this series, and Philadelphia is 4-1 SU/3-1-1ATS in the past five meetings at Lincoln Financial Field. Philly is also 14-4 SU and 13-4-1 ATS over the past 18 meetings overall between these two.
The Chargers host the Chiefs in their first divisional battle since moving to Los Angeles. Kansas City looks for their seventh straight victory in this series. Last season, K.C. swept the series with the 'over' cashing in both matchups. L.A. is 2-5 ATS over their past seven overall against Kansas City.
Buyer's Remorse - Week 2
Vegasinsider.com
Truthfully, Week 2 is a hard sample size to take away a lot of meaningful analysis. A lot of teams either had cakewalk matchups, or were playing without real starters.
So let’s scrounge what we can and look back at the week that was as BetOnline.ag presents Buyer’s Remorse for Week 2.
Houston Texans +5.5 over Cincinnati Bengals
Here’s what I’ll say about Houston’s “savior” DeShaun Watson – he has zero arm strength. Star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins never caught a pass longer than 25 yards, and even that play was a catch-and-run.
The thing about Hopkins is that he’s an automatic double-coverage receiver, which you should know because he’s about to become the highest paid player at his position. Hopkins should’ve busted open in man-on-man multiple times, even against a premier corner like Pacman Jones. The reason he didn’t is because Watson can’t make the throws. Of Hopkins seven receptions, five were comeback routes.
What this takes away is Houston’s big play ability and that’s a huge minus for gamblers, especially given the fact that Houston’s defense doesn’t look like a world beater overall. Houston is going to be playing from behind more often than they’ll admit and this offence doesn’t look like it can fire up enough points to close gaps as an underdog. Stay weary.
The Thursday night stinker also proved that the Bengals are more dysfunctional than we could’ve imagined, but you probably already knew that.
Buffalo Bills +6.5 over Carolina Panthers
This game was not only catastrophically boring until the last few drives, it’s also really hard to draw meaningful conclusions from. The Bills now rank out as a top-5 defense, but have played two of the worst offensive units in the entire league over the first two weeks.
Meanwhile the Panthers look like a complete train wreck. Cam Newton is having trouble connecting, and the Christian McAffery project isn’t reaping massive gains. The Panthers technically have the top rated offense but have also played the Bills and the Niners so there’s nothing to suggest that any of their metrics are legitimate.
Both teams have essentially had it relatively easy for the first two weeks but now have awful matchups over the next two weeks. Buffalo gets a home game against Denver and then hits the road to play Atlanta, while Carolina hosts New Orleans and then goes to Foxboro to lineup against the Patriots. That means that both teams are complete bet-off prospects right now. There are just too many unknowns. I wish I could say more but there just isn’t anything positive to note.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 over Chicago Bears
Here’s the main problem with that win: if any team knew Mike Glennon, it’s the team he practiced against for four years. I said that in the preview and it was shockingly obvious that the Bucs had Glennon figured out from the get-go.
What was surprising was just how dominant the Bucs looked against a defense that held the Falcons in check just a week before. Winston was cold, calculated and conservative which is a step up from the “win on every play” mentality he’s bombarded the league with for the last two years.
Tampa simply controlled the game in a way that makes them a more comfortable play at BetOnline.ag on a weekly basis. Every level of their defense has playmakers, and they have that big play ability with Evans that I mentioned was lacking in Houston. I love their next two games against Minnesota and the New York Giants as well.
San Francisco 49ers +13.5 over Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks officially look terrible. Their defense is great and all, but you still need to ramp up offensively if you’re going to do real damage. Russell Wilson has now thrown for 158 and 198 yards against Green Bay and San Francisco. That’s pretty bad. He doesn’t have a lot of help with his insane band of less-than-mediocre receivers (excluding Doug Baldwin) and his non-existent running game. Seahawks fans and backers are annoyingly defensive of this team, and the Seahawks are still a “public” team by most measurables but there is nothing trustworthy here. The core of betting on football is based around a team’s ability to score touchdowns, and the Seahawks don’t seem to have the pieces in place to do that.
Denver Broncos +2.5 over Dallas Cowboys
This has a lot less to do with Denver, a team we suspected might be a Super Bowl contender, than it does with Dallas. The Cowboys were embarrassed on Sunday afternoon with one of their worst performances in a long, long time. And the main culprit is unfortunately Dak Prescott, a man who has no excuses given how good the team around him is and how well he performed last season.
Prescott has now completed just 54-of-89 passes and thrown for 3 touchdowns leaning against 2 interceptions (he only threw four picks last year). There was concern that he may regress in his sophomore year and those issues came to light in Week 2.
Denver didn’t do anything miraculous to stuff Ezekiel Elliott. They just overwhelmed the box and relied on Von Miller to haunt him. What that should have done is freed up Prescott to rip open their (albeit) strong secondary as best as he could. Prescott is just having trouble making those throws, and that bottle of special sauce that he was able to bring in his rookie run seems to be empty. Teams have a full year of film on Prescott and Denver just put on a showcase of how to box his ears in. If Prescott can’t beat teams without Zeke running roughshod, this is going to be a painful year for America’s team.
Lessons Learned From Week 2 Of The NFL
By Cole Ryan
Bangthebook.com
The second week of the NFL is complete and the best football handicappers know that this is when you earn your money. Before you can look ahead at the games for week three you have to look back at the games that were just played. By looking back at the previously played games, the handicapper may be able to identify situations or trends that will identify winners in the future.
These valuable lessons learned can save you from making a bad bet in the future while boosting your bankroll with more winners! Here is a look at the lessons learned from the game play in the second week of the season.
Overreaction Pays Off
Every week in the NFL there is overreaction, but it is never more prevalent than it is in week two. Since football bettors only have one week to go off, teams are often over valued going into the second week of football. This was the case again this season. The game in Indianapolis stands out above the rest.
The Cardinals went into Indy to take on the Colts and the Cards were favored by more than a touchdown. This was due to the fact that the Colts were crushed in week one against the Rams. This pushed the public on the Cardinals in a spot where the line was inflated. Due to this inflation, the Colts were winners and it wasn’t even close. This game also served up another lesson learned.
Beyond the Box score
When looking at the box score for the Cardinals and the Colts, one would see that the Cardinals dominated statistically although the end result failed to match up with the final score. Arizona had 6.0 yards per play, while the Colts sat at 3.8. The Cardinals also had more passing yards and rushing yards. If you just looked at the box score you may have guessed that the Cardinals won by double digits, not by three points in overtime. This could mislead football bettors who may now consider the Colts when in an underdog spot. The Colts are one point home underdogs to the Browns this week.
Saints Defenseless
This may be a new season, but the New Orleans Saints still have the same problems. They have an incredibly ugly defense.
After making Sam Bradford look like Aaron Rodgers they got torched by Tom Brady and the Patriots. The Saints benched Kenny Vaccaro and are now desperate to try and fix a porous defense that has struggled for years. How bad is it? The Saints allowed Brady to pass for 177 yards and three touchdowns in the first quarter alone. They have now allowed 777 passing yards in the first two games, the most allowed in franchise history in two games. The Saints travel to Carolina to take on the Panthers in week three.
Can’t Count on Cam
The Carolina Panthers are 2-0 on the season, but they have won ugly. Quarterback Cam Newton is struggling and this has to be a cause for concern. Newton struggled in week one against the 49ers and looked even worse against the Buffalo Bills in week two. Newton failed to get into the end zone and he has missed some wide open receivers in both games. He had offseason shoulder surgery which forced him to miss all of the OTAs and most of training camp. Newton lost a big target as tight end Greg Olsen broke his foot and he will be out for 6-8 weeks. If Newton has a chance to get better it will be this week against the Saints.
Pressing Prescott
The Cowboys were annihilated over the weekend by the Denver Broncos. The Broncos easily covered the small number and dominated on both sides of the ball. It seems that the Cowboys offense has been figured out.
The once impressive offensive line has cracks. Tackle La’el Collins allowed a sack, hit and 11 pressures. That left Dak Prescott running for his life. Defenses are playing the Cowboys differently this season. They are daring Prescott to throw deep by loading the box. When opposing teams load the box they not only bottle up the run, but they can send extra rushers. Until the Cowboys can stretch the field, Prescott will feel the pressure. The Cowboys will face the Cardinals next week a team that blitzes more than any other team in the league.
Trends To Track
After watching week two there are several trends that are worth tracking. The Baltimore Ravens trounced the Cleveland Browns and they continue to be money makers in the AFC North. On the flip side the Browns keep on fading against the division. The Ravens are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games against divisional opponents. The Browns are 3-10 ATS (0-13 straight up) in their past 13 games against divisional opponents. Both teams play out of division this week, but this is a trend to track for the future.