Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 10/1/18
October 1, 2018
By Joe Williams
Overall Notes
National Football League Week 4 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 7-6-1
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 7-6-1
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-8
National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 38-22-2
Against the Spread 27-33-2
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 38-22-2
Against the Spread 33-27-2
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 33-31
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bengals (+3.5, ML +165) at Falcons, 37-36
Ravens (+3, ML +140) at Steelers, 26-14
Titans (+3, ML +130) vs. Eagles, 26-23 (OT)
The largest favorite to cover
Packers (-9) vs. Bills, 22-0
Jaguars (-7.5) vs. Jets, 31-12
Patriots (-6.5) vs. Dolphins, 38-7
May Day Mayfield
-- The Cleveland Browns probably should have come away with a 42-34 win against the Oakland Raiders in Week 5, as it appeared from every angle on the telecast that RB Carlos Hyde converted a first down which would have meant the Browns could simply take a knee. It's uncertain where the officials saw conclusive evidence, but they overturned the first-down call on the field and it brought up fourth down, giving the Raiders a chance. They picked up a touchdown and game-tying two-point conversion to force OT, winning it with a field goal, 45-42. Lost in the review controversy was Mayfield, who had two touchdowns in his first NFL start, but he also had two interceptions and two lost fumbles. Since 2002, quarterbacks who were No. 1 overall picks making the first NFL start are now 0-11 SU/ATS. Houston's David Carr is the last to successfully win and cover in his debut. It's ironic his brother, Derek, extended that streak by rallying to beat Mayfield.
Second-Half Ravens
-- The Baltimore Ravens blanked the Pittsburgh Steelers in the second half at Heinz Field on Sunday Night Football, and they have now outscored their opponents 49-9 in the second half through four games in 2018. It was another 'under' result on Sunday night, too, as underdogs and the under are now 4-1 in five SNF games so far this season.
Total Recall
-- The two lowest totals on the board (40), N.Y. Jets-Jacksonville and Seattle-Arizona, split 1-1. The Jags nearly took care of the 'over' themselves with 31 points. 'Over' bettors were hoping for overtime in the Seahawks game, but Sebastian Janikowski banged home a long field goal at the buzzer to sink the Cardinals and save 'under' bettors. In the Philadelphia-Tennessee (41.5) game, it was OT which saved over bettors. A flurry of points in the fourth quarter had the Eagles and Titans tied 20-20. The Eagles struck first with a field goal, but WR Corey Davis walked it off with a touchdown in the 26-23 win.
-- The highest total on the board in Week 4 was Cincinnati-Atlanta (52.5), and that game featured the most points outside of the Cleveland-Oakland tilt. The Bengals ralled for a 37-36 win to sink the Falcons, who have yielded 79 points over their past two home games, thanks largely in part to several key defensive season-ending injuries during the early going. The next three highest totals on the board, New Orleans-N.Y. Giants (52), Baltimore-Pittsburgh (51.5) and Miami-New England (50.5) each cashed under.
-- The 'over' has now cashed in all four games for the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers are the only two teams in the AFC with a 4-0 'over' mark so far, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking to join the club on Monday against the Denver Broncos. Meanwhile, the under is 4-0 for the Arizona Cardinals so far this season, while the Dallas Cowboys saw their first 'over' result after a 3-0 'under' run to start 2018.
-- There are two primetime games in the books so far in Week 4, with the 'over/under' 1-1 with the MNF game pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 5-7 (41.7%).
Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.
In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.
In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.
In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.
Injury Report
-- Bengals TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) suffered what is believed to be a season-ending broken ankle in Sunday's 37-36 win in Atlanta.
-- Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard (knee) left the blowout loss in Chicago and he will have an MRI on Monday, although head coach Dirk Koetter seemed optimistic that the injury isn't that bad.
-- Colts WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring) suffered a hamstring injury in the team's OT loss against the Texans and head coach Frank Reich said after the game that Hilton's outlook isn't good for the quick turnaround Thursday in New England.
-- Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) returned from a hamstring injury, but aggravated the ailment and was back on the shelf by mid-game.
-- Patrioits TE Rob Gronkowski (ankle) left with an ankle injury and he did not return. However, with a lopsided score on the board, he might have simply been held out as a precaution.
-- Seahawks S Earl Thomas (knee) suffered a broken leg in Sunday's game in Arizona, but nothing was wrong with his finger. TE Will Dissly (knee) suffered what is believed to be a season-ending injury, too.
-- Texans WR Will Fuller (hamstring) left the team's game in the third quarter and he was unable to return.
Looking Ahead
-- The Browns host the Ravens in AFC North action. The Ravens have won and covered five in a row in this series, and the 'under' has connected in three consecutive meetings. However, the 'over' is 4-1 in the past five meetings at First Energy Stadium in Cleveland. The last time the Browns won at home against the Ravens came back on Nov. 3, 2013, a 24-18 win and cover.
-- The Lions return home to face the Packers at Ford Field. The home team is just 3-4 SU in the past seven meetings in this NFC North battle. The 'over' has connected in five straight meetings, and three in a row at Ford Field. The Lions swept this series and covered both games in 2017.
-- The Raiders will travel to the Los Angeles area to battle the Chargers, and they should have plenty of fans travelling with them. The Chargers franchise is 4-2 SU over the past six home games, and 9-4 SU in the past 13 battles in L.A./San Diego. However, the Chargers are just 2-7 ATS in their past nine home games against the Raiders. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in L.A./San Diego, and 10-2-1 in the past 13 battles in Southern California.
-- The Cardinals travel to meet the 49ers in Santa Clara, and San Francisco is looking to snap a six-game losing skid in the series. They're also 1-3 ATS in their past four home games against Arizona, while the 'under' is 3-1 in the past four in the Bay Area and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall in this series.