NFL Betting Recap - Week 4

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 4 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 6-8
Against the Spread 3-11

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 3-11
Against the Spread 5-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 37-24-1
Against the Spread 24-37-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 26-35-1
Against the Spread 20-41-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-34

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+9.5, ML +375) at Rams, 55-40
Browns (+7, ML +280) at Ravens, 40-25
Panthers (+5.5, ML +210) at Texans, 16-10
Raiders (+5.5, ML +210) at Colts, 31-24
Eagles (+3.5, ML +170) at Packers, 34-27
Titans (+3.5, ML +160) at Falcons, 24-10

The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-14.5) at Dolphins, 30-10
Seahawks (-5.5) at Cardinals, 27-10
Giants (-3) vs. Redskins, 24-3

Living Up To The Hype

-- The Cleveland Browns (+7, ML +280) hit the road for a key AFC North battle against the Baltimore Ravens, and their struggling offense finally hit its stride. The Browns entered the day with 49 points scored through three games, or 16.3 PPG, but they erupted for 40 in this one to help the books immensely. The Browns are now 0-2 SU/ATS in two games at home and 2-0 SU/ATS in two games on the road.

Cleveland posted 193 rushing yards, 337 passing yards and 22 first downs with no fumbles lost and just one interception. The lack of turnovers was key in their road win, and they at least cut their penalties down to a manageable six for 41 yards. Cleveland's red-zone efficiency was a solid 4-for-5, something they could have used more help with against the Rams last Sunday night.

Ram It

-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rolled up a franchise-record 55 points in their win on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, winning outright as 9.5-point underdogs (ML +375). The Bucs offense has improved every week, scoring 17 points in Week 1, 20 points in Week 2, 31 points in Week 3 and 55 points in Week 4. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they'll need to figure out their defensive problems if they wish to continue winning. They're allowing 29.3 PPG through four outings, including at least 31 points in three of the four contests.

Total Recall

-- The 'under' will outperform the 'over' in Week 4, regardless of what happens in the Monday Night Football contest.

The highest total on the board was the Kansas City Chiefs-Detroit Lions (54.5) lived up to the hype, as the Chiefs outlasted the Lions 34-30 at Ford Field, as the Chiefs dealt the Lions their first straight-up loss of the season. It was amazing that the 'over' connected considering that QB Patrick Mahomes failed to throw or run for a touchdown in the game. The second-highest total on the board, the Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (49) saw a scoreless third quarter keep the lid on the scoring, ending up going under by 12 points. The two games at 48 or 48.5, the Bucs-Rams (48.5) and Washington Redskins-New York Giants (48) were completely different results. The 'Skins mustered just three points in a 24-3 loss, while the Bucs-Rams saw 95 total points, easily the highest scoring game of the 2019 season. It was the highest-scoring game in the NFL since 105 points were put up in the Chiefs-Rams game on Nov. 19, 2018.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Denver Broncos (37) game, which was a very entertaining affair. QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 26-24 comeback win, including 20 points in the second half. The other game with a total in the 30's, the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (38) game, ended up with a just 22 points, and the Bears nearly pitched the shutout until the Vikings scored in the final few minutes to make it 16-6.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 4, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Cincinnati Bengals-Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5) still pending. The 'over' is 3-9 (25.0%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 5-0 for Sunday Night Football this season.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) suffered a left shoulder injury early in the game vs. the Vikings, so it was the QB Chase Daniel show to close out the win.

-- Bills QB Josh Allen (concussion) was knocked out of the loss against the Patriots, and the Bills suffered their first setback of the season as a result.

-- Lions TE T.J. Hockenson (head) attempted to hurdle a defender, had his legs taken out, and he banged his head on the turf. Perhaps that will be the end of that move. Maybe not.

Looking Ahead

-- The Rams and Seahawks will square off on Thursday Night Football in Seattle. The Rams have posted a 4-0 ATS mark in their past four road outings, and they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 inside the division. However, they're also just 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances on TNF. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have posted an impressive 7-0-2 ATS mark in their past nine showings on Thursday, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four against winning sides. Seattle looks even more impressive when you consider they're 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 battles in the Pacific Northwest.

-- The Buccaneers and Saints will lock horns in the Big Easy on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Bucs won outright and covered in their first road game Sunday in L.A., and they're now 4-0-1 ATS in the past five on the road. The Saints edged the Cowboys 12-10 on Sunday night in a low-scoring affair, but they still got it done and are 2-0 SU/ATS in two games since QB Drew Brees (thumb) went down. QB Teddy Bridgewater is doing enough to get it done. The 'under' has hit in 15 of the past 21 meetings in this series, so perhaps the Saints D, which cooled off the Cowboys, can hold down the Bucs.

-- The Ravens and Steelers will tangle in the Steel City. After Baltimore's straight-up loss at home to the Browns, they're now 0-5 ATS in the past five inside the division. They look to snap that in Pittsburgh, as they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five trips to Heinz Field, and they're 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series. The 'over' is 13-6-2 ATS in the past 21 meetings in Pittsburgh, too.

-- The Broncos and Chargers will square off in L.A., as Denver finally looks to get it right. They're 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS, including a pair of narrow losses at home on last-second field goals. The Broncos vaunted D hasn't shown up, allowing 23.4 PPG through four outings so far. The Chargers have hit the 'under' in each of their past three outings, too. The under is also 6-0 in the past six battles in Southern California in this series, and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall.

-- The Browns won their first appearance on Monday night against the Jets back in Week 2, now they get another shot under the lights in San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off a bye, so they'll be fairly healthy and well-rested, and they get an extra day with the MNF game. That's the first-place 49ers against the first-place Browns. Is this an alternate universe? The Browns are 4-0 ATS in the past four on the road, while the 49ers are 26-7 ATS in the past 33 on MNF. Something's gotta give. Well, the Niners are also 0-6 ATS in the past six following a bye.

Hot & Not Report - Week 5
Matt Blunt

Week of September 30th

There were some interesting results from the two games covered in last week's piece, as the Chiefs/Lions game was the first to buck that 'under' trend of 2019 with a non-conference home underdog. Even still, that game needed a TD late in the contest by Detroit to sail 'over' the number (before KC scored again).

But it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55-40 wild win out at the Los Angeles Rams that was one that shocked many, but not if you caught the “Who's Not” part last week.

That topic touched on just how bad home favorites have been early in the year prior to a road game on TNF, and the Rams SU and ATS loss pushed home favorites in that pre-TNF road role to 2-10 ATS and 2-10 SU during the first five weeks of the year over the past three seasons. I discussed how there had been some big upset winners in there before, and as a 9-10 point underdog on Sunday, Tampa Bay added themselves to that list of big paydays for those that were ballsy enough to ride that trend.

No rest for the wicked though, as it's on to Week 5's potential spots. And while I did mention that I wasn't intentionally picking on L.A. Rams fans, just that their team kept finding themselves in these situational angles, Rams fans will find their team involved in this week's piece as well.

Staying away from Rams angles is going to have to wait at least another week!

Who's Hot

Playing on 'Unders' after a team scores 40 or more points

1-8 Over/Under since Week 15 of 2018

5-12 O/U since start of 2018 season when it's divisional rivals squaring off

In 2019 alone, this trend is 1-4 O/U overall, as we actually had nobody live in it this past Sunday. Interestingly enough too, is the lone 'over' (New England/New York Jets in Week 3) came after a team (New England) put up their 40+ points and didn't cash an 'over' ticket in the process. That came in their 43-0 win over Miami in Week 2, as that's a rare scenario in of itself.

But generally speaking, getting one side to put up 40 points typically cashes an 'over' ticket along with it, and we've got three different teams fitting this role for Week 5.

I'll begin with the Rams and Buccaneers, who each put up 40 or more points in that wild Sunday afternoon game yesterday. They are somewhat grouped together this week as well, as they are both out on the road, and both squaring off against division foes. Remember, since the start of last year, divisional games that fit this 40+ scenario have hit the 'under' at a 70% clip.

The Rams have that short week ahead of them as we already know, travelling north to Seattle for a big game with the Seahawks. A total of 49 is no slouch of a number for guys on a short week, and considering how many yards quarterback Jared Goff threw for on Sunday (517), and how many points the Rams scored (40) and allowed (55), it's easy to assume there will be plenty of love for the high side of this total as Thursday draws near.

Chances are we could see this number even climb a bit, but it won't be because of support from me if that's the case.

Goff's big day statistically was great, but first and foremost, LA's defense has to tighten things up to avoid putting Goff and the offense in that spot needing so many points. Granted, the three interceptions that Goff threw didn't help things, but getting the defense to turn around things on a short week isn't unfeasible. Can't imagine they took Tampa Bay too seriously given how that game played out, and that just won't be the case with a road divisional game against Seattle this week.

NFL prime time games have still been 'under' machines in 2019 despite a 2-1 O/U record the last three, and with how sloppy these short-week, TNF games can be, I do think going low on this total makes a lot of sense in general. Add in this great 'under' role, and I hope this number climbs.

Tampa Bay's the other team visiting a divisional rival in Week 5, as they take a trip to the Big Easy to face a New Orleans team off a big SNF win. The Saints defense completely wrapped up the Cowboys in that one, and there shouldn't be any worry about them taking Tampa lightly as a divisional foe, and after the offensive performance they put up in LA.

The Bucs total is a little lower at 47.5, and with the way the Saints are trying to win games now with Teddy Bridgewater as a “game manager” QB and the defense doing plenty of the heavy lifting, the 'under' generally makes sense here as well. There is more time to dig into a game like this to either confirm or pass on the low side of this total, but given the history of these 40+ point teams the following week, it's hard not to like going low.

The final team that fits this role in Week 5 of coming off a game where they scored 40+ are the Cleveland Browns. The Browns get the national spotlight treatment once again as they head to San Francisco for MNF, with the 49ers coming off a bye.

The bye week for the 49ers makes things a bit more tricky here as they've had two full weeks to prepare to attack this Browns defense, although the last three times it's been AFC vs NFC in this situational angle with one side coming off a 40+ effort, the 'under' is a perfect 3-0. That includes an 0-2 O/U record this year, with one of those games including the 49ers themselves in their 24-20 win over Pittsburgh last time out.

Who's Not

Backing teams ATS after scoring 40 or more points in their last outing

4-8 ATS (33%) since Week 14 of 2018 and 1-4 ATS (20%) in 2019

Sorry Rams fans, I know the first half of this piece could be taken as positive in terms of your defense turning things around in a few days, and they probably will. But recent history suggests that it probably doesn't turn out to be a SU victory for your team given what the point spread is (+1) and the ATS history the following week for these 40+ point scoring teams.

That being said, the ATS record might be 1-4 ATS this season the following week for these squads, but the SU record is 4-1 SU. All four of those outright winners off a 40+-point day were laying at least -6 in all of those wins though, and only the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 2 win over Oakland was able to bring home the ATS cash. The virtual pick'em point spread here for the Rams/Seahawks game on TNF is a different situation in that regard, so we will just have to see how it plays out.

We already know that Tampa and Cleveland are the other two teams in this spot for Week 5, as both teams are catching a little more than a FG (Tampa +4.5, Cleveland +3.5) for their respective games. Given that the situation does look tougher for Cleveland on paper as it is – an undefeated opponent coming off a bye week and not playing a backup QB – this history does the Browns no favors as well, so we might see another prime time stinker from Cleveland this time next week.

The last five times this scenario has applied to a non-conference game, the team coming into that contest off a 40-point effort is just 1-4 ATS, a run that includes a 0-2 ATS record this season. The 49ers themselves couldn't get it done when they hosted Pittsburgh last time out, and neither could the Ravens in Week 2 when they hosted Arizona.

So Cleveland fans, don't get too over-hyped this week after a great win in Baltimore over the weekend, because we saw the impact a completely full bandwagon for your team can do in their Week 1 blowout loss.