Betting Recap - Week 5
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
National Football League Week 5 Results
Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 7-6
Home-Away
Straight Up 4-9
Against the Spread 4-9
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-7
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Jaguars (+7.5, ML +310) at Steelers, 30-9
Chargers (+3, ML +145 ) at Giants, 27-22
Ravens (+3, ML +125) at Raiders, 30-17
The largest favorite to cover
Eagles (-6.5) vs. Cardinals, 34-7
Patriots (-4) at Buccaneers, 19-14
Bengals (-3) vs. Bills, 20-16
Keep Pounding
The Carolina Panthers have fired out to a 4-1 record, winning their second straight game on the road against a winning team. The Panthers topped the Detroit Lions, 27-24, holding off a charge from Matt Stafford and his usual fourth-quarter heroics. The Panthers are now a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS on the road, and the 'over' has cashed in each of their past three outings, too. They have a short week before returning home to face the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football, their first prime time game of the season.
Odd-Week Heroes
There is something about odd-numbered weeks that really agrees with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags thrashed the Pittsburgh Steelers by a 30-9 count, moving to 3-0 SU/ATS in odd-numbered weeks, while going 0-2 SU/ATS in even-numbered weeks. The good news for the Jaguars is that their bye falls in Week 8. Next up is a home game against the Los Angeles Rams. The Jags lost their only appearance in Northeast Florida this season back in Week 2, as the Tennessee Titans hammered them 37-16.
Total Recall
Sunday Night Football was a shootout between Kansas City-Houston (45), as the Chiefs held off the Texans 42-34. There were just 36 total points on the board heading to the final quarter, but the teams combined for a ridiculous 40 points. The high-scoring game pulled the 'over' to 6-7 on the week with the Monday Night Football game still left to go.
The lowest total on the board -- Buffalo-Cincinnati (39) ended up going 'under' by three points, helped out by the soggy weather. There were rainy conditions in the Steel City, too, as Jacksonville-Pittsburgh (41.5) ended up just 'under' the number. It's important to watch the weather leading up to game time. There were sunny conditions in South Florida, but Tennessee-Miami (41.5) also went under. It was helped out by the fact the Titans had backup QB Matt Cassel under center for the injured QB Marcus Mariota.
The L.A. Chargers-N.Y. Giants (45.5) ended up going 'over' despite the fact both teams entered 0-4, and the G-Men lost four wide receivers. It was the second straight over for the Bolts, and the over is a perfect 2-0 in two road games for Los Angeles. It was the third consecutive over for the Giants, too. That will be put to the test next weekend on the road against the Denver Broncos.
The 'Over' is 9-7 (56.3%) through the first 16 primetime games of the 2017 season, with Monday's game between the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears still pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.
Injury Report
Bills TE Charles Clay (knee) was forced to the cart after a knee injury in Cincinnati, not helped out by slippery conditions in the Queen City.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (concussion) is in the concussion protocol after checking out at halftime in Sunday's game in Houston. WR Chris Conley (Achilles') is believed to have suffered a ruptured Achilles' tendon.
Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) suffered a fractured left ankle in the fourth quarter of Sunday's loss against the Chargers. It was an ugly day for G-Men pass catchers, as WRs Dwyane Harris (fractured foot), Brandon Marhsall (ankle) and Sterling Shepard (ankle) also left injured.
Texans DE J.J. Watt (knee) was taken to the hospital after suffering a serious knee injury. He is scheduled for an MRI.
Looking Ahead
The Packers will travel to face the Vikings in Week 6. The Packers enter the game with an impressive 46-22 ATS mark over their past 68 divisional games. The Vikings enter the game enter the game just 2-5 ATS over their past seven against teams with a winning mark. The home team is also 9-4 ATS in the past 13 meetings in this series, while the underdog has cashed in four of the past five in this series.
The Patriots hit the road for the Jets, and not many predicted that the winner of this Week 6 game would be in first place in the AFC East. But the Jets enter play with three consecutive victories, helped in large part by a last-place schedule. New England covered on the road in Week 5 at Tampa, pushing their record to 10-1 ATS over their past 11 away from home. They're also an impressive 10-3 ATS in their past 13 against AFC teams, and 7-1 ATS in their past eight against winning teams. The Patriots are a dismal 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight in this series, including 0-4 ATS in their past four trips to New Jersey. The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight in this series, too.
The Chargers hit the road for the Black Hole to battle the Raiders. The Bolts have had tremendous success in this series, going 10-4 ATS in the past 14 trips to Oakland, and the underdog is 14-2 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall. The road team has hit in five straight in this series, too. Both sides have had their trouble against the number vs. divisional foes. L.A. is 0-4-1 ATS in their past five against AFC West teams, while the Raiders are 2-5 ATS in the past seven against divisional foes.
The Colts head to the Music City next Monday for a battle with the Titans. The Colts are an impressive 19-8-2 ATS in their past 29 against AFC South teams, while the Titans are a dismal 13-36-3 ATS in their past 52 divisional games.They're also just 5-11-2 ATS in their past 18 at home against teams with a losing road record. However, Tennessee has covered five straight appearance on Monday night. The Colts have dominated this series, going 10-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings, while going 4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Nashville.
Lessons Learned in the NFL Week 5
By Cole Ryan
Bangthebook.com
With another week in the books it is once again time to look back at what happened. By looking back at what happened during the week we can figure out some angles and some edges that we may be able to be used in the future when it comes to picking winners against the spread.
The NFL season is a constant grind, but if you want to find winners on a regular basis you will need to do your best to find out as much information as possible. Once you are able to do this method of handicapping constantly you will then be able to find the best angles that will pay off in the end. Now it is time to look at the lessons learned from week 5 in the NFL.
Giants are Feeling Blue
The New York Giants have yet to win a football game. For a team that generally goes to the playoffs and have multiple super bowl victories this could be very difficult. The Giants not only failed to cover as 3.5 point favorites at home against the San Diego Chargers, they lost outright. This is the lowest point of the season for a team that had high aspirations. To make matters worse, the Giants lost Odell Beckham Jr for the rest of the season. OBJ broke his ankle in a gruesome play and the Giants are now without their best player from a talent standpoint. The Giants will be undervalued at the betting window. They opened as (+9) point dogs at Denver which is a very big number. The Giants have not been bad against the spread (2-3 ATS) and in the right spot they may actually have value.
Are the Packers the Team to Beat?
The Packers had another late comeback to beat the Dallas Cowboys over the weekend and they cashed in as (+2.5) point underdogs. Aaron Jones stepped in and took over at running back and gave the Packers the burst of energy out of the backfield that they have been looking for. He averaged 6.6 yards per carry and had five broken tackles putting up big numbers. Despite playing well both the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs have better odds to win the Super Bowl. Right now you can bet on the Packers at (+550) to win it all. This could be a good chance to get the value by betting on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to win a championship.
Off the Field Problems
Coming into the game against the Detroit Lions, Cam newton and the Panthers were dealing with off the field problems. Newton had an incident with a female reporter and it was a distraction all week long. Many believed that the distraction would make things difficult for the Panthers on the football field. That was the exact opposite as the Panthers won outright as underdogs. Now the Miami Dolphins will have to deal with an off the field incident. Dolphins offensive line coach Chris Foerster resigned Monday following a video that surfaced showing him snorting a white powder. This incident will obviously be the main topic in Miami. The Dolphins will have to show that they have the mettle to deal with the questions and the loss of a very good coach.
Steelers Bigger Problems?
The Steelers lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ben Roethlisberger had five interceptions and this team was embarrassed at home against a team that many believed that they could beat. Every quarterback can have a bad day, but this team has bigger problem right now. They had questionable play calling and they have players that are making decisions based on their own play and not on the team. The Steelers have bigger problems then what they showed on Sunday. This could get even worse as they go up against the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend. The Steelers are still a very good team, but beware before betting on the Black and Gold.