NFL: Betting Recap - Week 5

October 8, 2018
By Joe Williams

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bills (+6, ML +230) vs. Titans, 13-12
Browns (+3.5, ML +155) vs. Ravens, 12-9 (OT)
Vikings (+3.5, ML +165) at Eagles, 23-21

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-11) vs. Colts, 38-24
Bengals (-6) vs. Dolphins, 27-17
Chargers (-5.5) vs. Raiders, 26-10

K.C. Masterpiece

-- The Kansas City Chiefs picked up an impressive 30-14 victory against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 5, becoming the only team to move to 5-0 SU and ATS. The Chiefs have an average winning margin of 9.2 points per game (PPG). It will be interesting to see if they can keep up those winning ways when they hit the road to meet the New England Patriots in Foxboro on Sunday Night Football in Week 6. The Chiefs opened their campaign last season with a 42-27 victory at Gillette Stadium in Week 1 as eight-point underdogs. Can they do it again?

Beat Beats - NFL style

-- Normally bad beats are more prevalent in college football, as things change rather quickly and there are just way more games, too. However, there were a couple of awful beats in the National Football League in Week 5.

The Miami Dolphins held a 17-3 lead on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals heading into the fourth quarter. Hopefully you weren't holding a moneyline ticket on the underdogs, or catching the six points, as what happened in the fourth quarter was rough. Six seconds into the quarter, the Bengals struck for an 18-yard touchdown. No worries, as Miami led 17-10 still. However, just 3:11 later, Michael Johnson took a pick-six back the other way for 22 yards to tie the game at 17. The Bengals tacked on a field goal with 3:30 left in regulation, giving the Bengals their first lead of the afternoon, 20-17. Still, the Dolphins had plenty of time. However, the Bengals scooped up a fumble with 2:37 to go, returning it 19 yards for the score. The Bengals not only won, but they covered, too, scoring 24 in the final quarter to leave bettors shaking their heads.

If you were a moneyline bettor of the New York Giants on Sunday, it was likely losing twice. The Panthers were up 17-3 in the second quarter, and 27-16 early in the fourth. It appeared the Panthers were going to salt the game away with a field goal at 2:16 to go, making it 30-24. However, the G-Men marched it down the field in just 68 seconds to post a touchdown, re-taking the lead at 31-30. Moneyline bettors would be left shaking their heads, however, as Graham Gano booted a 63-yard field goal at the horn for the amazing 33-31 win.

There have been three field goals over 60 yards across the past two NFL seasons, with two of the game-winning variety to sink the Giants. That's just bad luck.

Total Recall

-- The lowest total on the board was the only one in the 30's, as Tennessee-Buffalo was a defensive struggle as expected. The Arizona-San Francisco (40.5) gave was expected to follow suit, but rookie QB Josh Rosen had other plans. He picked up his first-career victory as a starter, 28-18. Arizona entered the game averaging just 9.3 PPG, and they hadn't scored more than 17 in a single game all season. In fact, the 'under' was a perfect 4-0 until their over result on Sunday.

-- The highest total on the board Atlanta-Pittsburgh (57.5), but 'over' bettors needed a little help getting the win. We discussed bad beats above, and 'under' bettors in this game were probably wondering where this game was. The Steelers hopped on a fumble in the end zone, taking a 41-17 lead with 3:35 to go in regulation to inch the total over by a half-point at most shops. Three of the other four games with totals of 50 or higher also ended up cashing. The winning overs were L.A. Rams-Seattle (50.5), Green Bay-Detroit (50.5) and Indianapolis-New England (50), with the Oakland-L.A. Chargers (51.5) the lone 'under' result in the 50-plus games.

-- The 'over' failed to cash for the first time in five games for the Cincinnati Bengals. The over also had been 4-0 until Sunday's under for the Chargers, too. Every team in the AFC now has at least two 'over' results, as the high-scoring results continue to come in.

-- The 'over/under' split in the first two primetime games with one game pending in Monday night contest. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 6-9 (40.0%). The 'under' has now cashed in three consecutive Sunday night battles heading into Week 6.

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- 49ers RB Matt Breida (ankle) was unable to return after a first-quarter injury against Arizona. X-rays were negative, but he might be sidelined for playing time going forward.

-- Rams WRs Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp were forced out in the first half at Seattle with concussions.

Looking Ahead

-- The Eagles will travel to meet the Giants on Thursday night in Week 6. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their past five appearances on Thursday night, but just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games against teams with a losing home record. The Giants are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 Thursday appearances, but just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 at home and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 against NFC foes. The Eagles have dominated this series, at least against the number, going 8-3 ATS in the past 11 trips to New Jersey, and 13-6-1 ATS in the past 20. The 'over' has hit in five straight meetings, and each of the past six in the Meadowlands.

-- The Buccaneers and Falcons will tangle in the ATL on Sunday. Tampa has covered nine of their past 12 coming off their bye week. They're also 4-0 ATS in the past four inside the division, but just 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 on the road. The Faclons are a dismal 1-4 ATS in the past five overall. The favorite is 10-4-1 ATs in the past 15 meetings between these NFC South rivals.

-- The defensively-challenged Steelers invade Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday. The Steelers have covered just once in their past six against teams with a winning record, and they are 0-5 ATS in their past five divisional tilts. The Bengals have covered seven in a row against AFC foes, they're 4-0 ATS in their past four inside the division and 14-6 ATS in the past 20 against losing teams. Pittsburgh has dominated this series, however, going 16-4-2 ATS in the past 22 trips to the Queen City, and they're 18-7-1 ATS in the past 26 in this series.