Betting Recap - Week 7
By Daniel Dobish
VegasInsider.com
National Football League Week 7 Results
Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 8-4-2
Home-Away
Straight Up 9-5
Against the Spread 8-4-2
Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bears (+3, ML +130) vs. Panthers, 17-3
Raiders (+3, ML +135) vs. Chiefs, 31-30
The largest favorite to cover
Cowboys (-6.5) at 49ers, 40-10
Vikings (-5) vs. Ravens, 24-16
Three tied at (-4)
Three Bagels
The Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts were each shut out in Week 7. The number equaled the number of total shutouts for the entire 2016 season, and it was the first time since Dec. 16, 2012 that three teams were blanked in the same weekend in the National Football League. Points were also at a premium in the Tennessee Titans-Cleveland Browns game, which featured seven field goals and no touchdowns. The game between the Carolina Panthers-Chicago Bears featured 20 total points, but just two field-goal drives by the two offenses, while the Bears defense accounted for a pair of defensive scores. In fact, Bears rookie S Eddie Jackson recorded a 75-yard fumble return for touchdown and a 76-yard interception return for score, becoming the first rookie in NFL history to posted two 75-yard defensive touchdowns in a season. He is also the first player in franchise history with two defensive touchdowns in a game since 1948, and the first NFL player to turn the trick since 2012.
Odd-Week Winners
If you've been following along the past few week, you'll know that the Jacksonville Jaguars continue to win and covered in odd-numbered weeks, and lose and post non-covers in even-numbered weeks. The trend continued with their 27-0 road victory in Indianapolis. The streak is uncanny, as they are now a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in odd-numbered weeks, and 0-3 SU/ATS in even-numbered weeks. We'll see if the betting or football gods are confused when the Jags are off in Week 8. They resume play in Week 9 against the Cincinnati Bengals when they'll try to continue their odd-week success.
Total Recall
Sunday Night Football was not the shootout everyone expected. In a rematch of Super Bowl LI, the New England Patriots hosted the Atlanta Falcons in what was supposed to be a high-scoring affair, with a total closing at 57. Like last season's championship game, neither team scored in the first quarter. However, a fog rolled into Foxboro, and defense also reigned supreme in a surprisingly defensive battle. Unlike the Super Bowl, there was no monster comeback or overtime, either, as the Patriots won 23-7 to cover a three-point number.
The game with the lowest total on the board -- Baltimore-Minnesota (37.5) ended up inching 'over' in the worst way possible. With no time remaining in regulation, and the game already decided, the Ravens scored a touchdown on the final play of the game, falling 24-16. While the line for the game wasn't affected, although perhaps a teaser or two could have been ruined, the total was flipped for the worst bad beat of Week 7.
The Tampa Bay-Buffalo (46.5) game appeared to be headed for an 'under' result, with the Bills leading 17-13 after three quarters. With 13:31 to go, the Bills got a 52-yard field goal from Stephen Hauschka to push their lead to 20-13. The game was tied on a 33-yard touchdown at the 10:08 mark, as the Bucs knotted the game 20-20. Things were looking pretty good for the next six-plus minutes until turnovers tilted the field. The Bucs scored with 3:14 to official push the total over, 27-20. The Bills then added 10 points in the final 2:28 to not only snatch a win, but change a Bucs cover into a push at most shops.
The 'Over' is 12-10 (54.5%) through the first 22 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's game between the Washington Redskins-Philadelphia Eagles (49) went pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.
Injury Report
Cardinals QB Carson Palmer (arm) suffered a broken arm in the game against the Rams in London and he will require corrective surgery, costing him at least eight weeks of playing time, if not the remainder of the season.
Dolphins QB Jay Cutler (chest) was forced from the game against the Jets due to a chest injury, although it might have been addition by subtraction. QB Matt Moore rallied his team back from 14 down for the 31-28 victory. Reports indicate Cutler will not be ready for the Week 9 game on Thursday in Baltimore, so Moore is expected to start.
Looking Ahead
The Panthers and Buccaneers will square off in Tampa next Sunday, and the Bucs opened as a two-point favorite. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS over their past six road games, but that loss came in their dismal performance in Week 7 against the Bears. The Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their past six against NFC foes, 5-15-1 ATS in their past 21 at home against teams with a winning road record and 0-4 ATS in their past four at home against Cam Newton and the Cats. The Panthers have covered six of the past eight meetings, while the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series.
The Cowboys and Redskins will meet in the nation's capital, with the Cowboys looking to keep it rolling. They're 2-4 ATS over their past six road games, but they were able to cover in San Francisco in Week 7. They're also 4-8 ATS over their past 12 against NFC foes. The Redskins are 1-4 ATS over their past five home games, and the home team has failed to cover in six straight in this series. The underdog is 29-9 ATS across the past 38 in this series, too. Total bettors will be interested to know the 'under' is 7-3-1 in the past 11 meetings at FedEx Field.
In the third divisional matchup of Week 8, the Broncos and Chiefs will battle at Arrowhead on Monday night. The Chiefs are coming off a deflating 31-30 loss in the waning seconds of Thursday Night Football in Oakland, while the Broncos scored as many points as you and I did in Carson against the Chargers, losing 21-0. The Broncos are just 2-6 ATS over their past eight road games, and they're 2-6-2 ATS in their past 10 games on Monday night. The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their past seven inside the division, while going 5-2 ATS in their past seven on Monday. The road team has cashed in six of the past seven in this series, with the Broncos going 6-2 ATS in their past eight appearances at Arrowhead. The over is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings, while the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series.