NFL: Betting Recap - Week 7

Betting Recap - Week 7
October 22, 2018
By Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 7 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-4
Against the Spread 7-6
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 5-8
Against the Spread 3-10
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 4-9
National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 68-36-2
Against the Spread 48-56-2
Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 63-41-2
Against the Spread 53-51-2
Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 55-51

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Panthers (+5, ML +200) at Eagles, 21-17
Texans (+3.5, ML +170) at Jaguars, 20-7
Saints (+2.5, ML +125) at Ravens, 24-23

The largest favorite to cover
Rams (-9) at 49ers, 39-10
Colts (-7) vs. Bills, 37-5
Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Bengals, 45-10

Idiot Kickers

-- Kickers were changing the fortune of betting results all over the National Football League in Week 7. Or, a coach failing to use a kicker in a key point, also was a big sticking point for some.

In the Dallas Cowboys-Washington Redskins battle, Cowboys PK Brett Maher doink'd one off of the upright that would have sent the game into overtime. Sure, the Redskins could have still won the game in OT, but Cowboys side bettors, elated that Dallas nearly erased a 10-point lead in the final two minutes, had to feel like they lost their wager twice. In addition, while 'under' (40.5) bettors weren't complaining one bit, Maher's errant kick also changed the fortunes of 'over' bettors.

That was barely a bad beat, however, considering how raw 'over' (49.5) bettors felt in the New Orleans Saints-Baltimore Ravens battle. The Ravens tied it up with :24 remaining in regulation, or so they thought. Ravens PK Justin Tucker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history, misfired on an extra point to do over bettors dirty, as under bettors celebrated everywhere. Side bettors for the Ravens weren't terribly pleased, either, as they could have had a chance in the extra session.

In the Cleveland Browns-Tampa Bay Buccaneers contest it was a redemption story. Buccaneers PK Chandler Catanzaro misfired on an extra point and a potential game-winning field goal to close regulation, giving Browns side bettors a chance in OT. The points left on the field also cost the Bucs side bettors potentially, as they failed to cover by a half-point when the dust cleared. In addition, who knows if the missed kicks woud have affected the total (52.5) in any way. In the end, Catanzaro redeemed himself with a 59-yard bomb to win it in overtime.

Oh, And Don't Forget These Gems!

-- The Chicago Bears were catching two points as short 'dogs at home against the New England Patriots. On a desperation heave at the horn, QB Mitchell Trubisky found WR Kevin White, who climbed the ladder and snared the ball at the 1-yard line. He was Kevin Dyson'd just short of the goal-line, again, making Bears side bettors feel like they lost their wager twice.

-- And if you were an 'under' (45) bettor in the Minnesota Vikings-New York Jets game...wow. The Vikings were up 27-17 with 5:16 to go in regulation. Instead of pounding it on the ground, the Vikings went to the air and had 34-yard touchdown from QB Kirk Cousins to WR Aldrick Robinson push the total 'over'. PK Dan Bailey added a 43-yard field goal with 3:22 to go just for good measure, as he didn't affect anyone's day negatively.

-- Last, but certainly not least, the 'over' (56.5) appeared to be in the bag for bettors in the Cincinnati Bengals-Kansas City Chiefs battle on Sunday Night Football. There were 31 points on the board at halftime, and 48 points on the board after three quarters. The Chiefs went ahead 45-10 with 12:50 to go in regulation, and all that was needed was a field goal. With just a few minutes to go, RB Spencer Ware took a swing pass and appeared to be hurtling toward the end zone, but the turf monster reached up and grabbed him, as he lost his footing. Then, on fourth down, head coach Andy Reid elected to go for it and eschew the short field goal, causing 'over' bettors everywhere to swear in unison. But hey, don't blame the Chiefs. They did their part with 45 points. How sorry were the Bengals?

Total Recall

-- The lowest total on the board, Dallas-Washington (40.5), apparently was low enough. Of course, we covered this one above. It probably should have gone over. The second-lowest total on the board (42.5) split, as Thursday's Denver Broncos-Arizona Cardinals (42.5) went over and the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars (42.5) went well under.

-- The two highest totals on the board, Cleveland-Tampa Bay (52.5) and Cincinnati-Kansas City (56.5), again, probably should have gone over, but...kickers, or a lack thereof.

-- The 'over' had cashed for the L.A. Chargers in five of their first six outings, but the Tennessee Titans and a long flight to London, as well as a missing key offensive component, sent them to a rare under result. As far as the Saints are concerned, they have alternated overs and unders in each of their six games so far. It looks like an 'over' is coming next Sunday night against the Vikings.

-- The 'over/under' is 1-1 through the first two primetime games in Week 7, and maybe we should put an asterisk next to the SNF result. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 11-10 (52.3%). The 'under' has cashed in four of the past five battles on Sunday Night Football.

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bills RB LeSean McCoy (concussion) suffered a concussion in Sunday's blowout loss against the Colts.

-- Patriots RB Sony Michel (knee) exited Sunday's game against the Bears early due to a knee ailment.

Looking Ahead

-- The Redskins will travel to meet the Giants in Week 8. Washington is a dismal 1-4 ATS over their past five on the road, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven inside the NFC East Division. They're also 1-7 ATS in their past eight following a straight-up win. As far as the Giants, they're just 3-8 ATS across the past 11 at home and 3-9 ATS in their past 12 against NFC foes, pending Monday's result. In this series, the under is 12-3 in the past 15 in New Jersey, while the Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their past five visits against the Giants. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven, while Washington is 3-7 ATS in the past 10 in this series.

-- The Broncos and Chiefs meet for the second time this season. Kansas City won 27-23 in the Mile High City on a Monday night in Week 4, barely covering as 3 1/2-point favorites as the 'under' (53) cashed. The Broncos are 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 against divisional foes, and 2-11 ATS in their past 13 on the road. The Chiefs have covered 10 of the past 11, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six at Arrowhead. While the road team is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings, the Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their past six trips to K.C. The over is 4-1 in the past five at Arrowhead, and 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings in this series.

-- After a Week 1 tie, the Browns and Steelers will square off in the second meeting of the year in the Steel City. Despite that cover, Cleveland is still just 4-14-1 ATS in their past 19 inside the AFC North. The Steelers are just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 overall, and 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the division. Surprisingly, they're also 0-5 ATS in the past five following a bye. Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings, and the 'over' is 11-5-1 in the past 17 meetings in Pittsburgh.

-- If it seems like the 49ers and Cardinals just met, it wasn't that long ago. Arizona won 28-18 in San Francisco for QB Josh Rosen's first NFL win on Oct. 7, covering as three-point 'dogs. Frisco is 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 inside the division. The Cardinals are 3-1-1 ATS in their past five overall. The road team has covered five in a row in this series, and the 49ers are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 trips to the desert.