NFL Betting Recap - Week 8

Betting Recap - Week 8
Joe Williams

National Football League Week 8 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 12-2
Against the Spread 7-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-3
Against the Spread 6-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 75-41-1
Against the Spread 50-65-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 56-60-1
Against the Spread 43-72-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 55-61-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Chargers (+3.5, ML +165) at Bears, 17-16

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-12.5) vs. Cardinals, 31-9
Rams (-11.5) vs. Bengals (London), 24-10
Patriots (-10) vs. Browns, 27-13
Jaguars (-7) vs. Jets, 29-15
Packers (-5.5) at Chiefs, 31-24
49ers (-4) vs. Panthers, 51-13

Razor Thin Margin

-- The Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5, ML +165) finally won one of those close games, taking advantage of the kicking woes of the Chicago Bears, 17-16. PK Eddy Pineiro was the hero earlier this season, sinking the Denver Broncos on a kick at the buzzer in the Mile High City. The Bears thought they had found their guy after years of ugly kicking performances, lowlighted by the playoff meltdown of Cody Parkey.

The Bolts have had their shortcomings, too, especially in close games. It's cliche' to say it, but football, in particular professional football, really is a game of inches. The Chargers found that out last week when they were stuffed at the 1-yard line, fumbling away a win on the road against the Tennessee Titans, much to the dismay of Chargers bettors holding a +2 ticket. The week before they were beaten by one score by an undrafted rookie QB. The week before that, they lost by one score. In Week 3, they lost by one score. In Week 2, they lost by a field goal. In week 1, they won in overtime by one score. Unfortunately for the Bolts, they won just two of the first seven games, so they really needed this, and they were facing a team in the exact same boat. They finally found an opponent with worse luck they they have.

For the Chargers, not only are close games inevitable, but low-scoring games are inevitable, too. The 'under' is 6-1 across the past seven, and last week's 'over' hit by just a half-point, although they should have had a touchdown in the closing moments.

London Fog

-- The Los Angeles Rams (-11.5) weren't feeling sorry for the Cincinnati Bengals, and they weren't about to play down to the competition. They won and cover 24-10, although the offense was a bit sluggish at times. Still, the defense showed up and kept the Bengals winless at 0-8. Cincinnati hits the halfway point with a goose egg in the win column while allowing 21 or more points in each game. They're just 3-5 ATS, failing to cover in back-to-back games all season. The 'under' is also 5-2-1 so far for Cincinnati, who will join the Rams in a bye in Week 9 after the trip back overseas.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Oakland Raiders-Houston Texans (52.5) battle, and it was a close call. One decision might have changed everything. Down 21-13, the Texans scored a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. Instead of going for two, head coach Bill O'Brien elected to kick the extra point. With plenty of time on the clock, it was probably the correct decision, but for bettors it changes things. Perhaps it didn't. We'll never know now. The game ended up 27-24, and just 'under'.

The second-highest total was the New York Giants-Detroit Lions (49.5) battle, and if you were holding a Lions (-6) ticket, it was a bad beat. RB Saquon Barkley gave Giants bettors (+6) and fantasy owners a gift touchdown with 1:19 to go in regulation, needing an onside kick for a chance at a win. That didn't happen, as it hardly ever does now, but the game was already well 'over' before that late score.

The next highest totals were the Seattle Seahawks-Atlanta Falcons (49) and Arizona Cardinals-New Orleans Saints (48.5) games. The Falcons were driving down the field, down 27-17, and needing two scores late, they elected to take the field goal first, then try to get the onside kick (again, you know how that works out) and go get the touchdown. 'Over' bettors, and those holding Seattle (-7.5) tickets were screaming "NO!!!" in unison, but a PK Matt Bryant field goal was made and the onside kick wasn't...

In the Saints game, people were concerned that QB Drew Brees (thumb) returning for the first time since Week 2 would upset things, maybe make the offense a bit rusty. He was just fine. It was the Cardinals who looked like they've been off for weeks after the 31-9 loss.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Philadelphia Eagles-Buffalo Bills (39) game. Buffalo was the last team to see an 'over' result, hitting the 'under' in each of their first five. Now, they're on an 'over' streak in the past two outings. The New York Jets-Jacksonville Jaguars (40) game also went over by four points, and in the Carolina Panthers-San Francisco 49ers (40.5) game saw the over taken care of by the home team all by themselves, 51-13.

-- The 'over/under' split 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 8, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Miami Dolphins-Pittsburgh Steelers (43) stiil to be played. The 'over' is just 6-18 (25.0%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the Green Bay Packers-Kansas City Chiefs (48) game finally was a SNF game with an over - barely - 31-24.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- There was really only one 'major' injury, but it's a big one for a contender. Texans DE J.J. Watt (pectoral) left Sunday's game against the Raiders, and he immediately went to the hospital. He tweeted out Sunday night indicating his season is over, and sources said has a torn pec. Not good.

Looking Ahead

-- The unbeaten 49ers hit the road to face the Cardinals on Thursday Night Football. Will we get a trick or a treat on Halloween night? The 49ers have covered five of their past seven, but they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven inside the division. They open as more than a touchdown favorite. For the Cards, they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven at home, and 2-6-1 ATS in the past nine appearances on TNF. Arizona is also 4-9 ATS in the past 13 tries at home against San Francisco.

-- The Watt-less Texans will travel to meet the Jaguars overseas in London. The 'over' is 2-1 in the three previous London games so far, with the Week 8 Bengals-Rams battle at Wembley Stadium going under. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the AFC South, while the Jags are 1-3-1 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record. The underdog has connected in 10 of the past 14 meetings in this series.

-- The Jets and Dolphins will meet in South Florida, and the one-win Jets will be looking to keep the Fins winless. The Jets lost and failed to cover in NE Florida in Week 8 in the heat and humidity in Jacksonville, and they're just 3-7 ATS in the past 10 road games. New York is also 2-8 ATS in the past 10 AFC East battles, including their 33-0 whitewashing against the Patriots last Monday night. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their past five at home, though, and 2-7 ATS in the past nine overall. In this series, the Jets are 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 trips to Miami, so that's probably the way to go.

-- In the fourth and final divisional game on the schedule we get the Cowboys and Giants squaring off on Monday Night Football. Dallas has an impressive 13-3 ATS mark in the past 16 games inside the NFC East, but they're just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 appearances on MNF. The G-Men are 1-5 ATS in the past six at home, and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning teams. However, Dallas is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.

Close Calls - Week 8
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 8 of the NFL regular season. Most of this week’s games apply as if you won in Week 8 on sides, congratulations, almost every game could have gone the other way with many of those games certainly deserving of an opposite spread result.

Minnesota Vikings (-17) 19, Washington Redskins 9 (41½): There were eight scoring plays on Thursday night, but seven were field goals as Minnesota posted more than twice as many yards but couldn’t pull away. Washington trailed by just seven late in the third quarter and got the ball back with a stop on 4th-and-1 just outside of Minnesota field goal range. Two plays later, Dwayne Haskins was intercepted to set-up a Dan Bailey field goal early in the fourth quarter to put Minnesota up by 10. A late touchdown would be enough for most Vikings backers on a spread that opened at -14½ and only hit -17 very late in the day before kickoff. The Vikings had the opportunity and attempted to score despite Washington being out of timeouts late, but ultimately wound up stopped on 4th-and-4 from the Washington 7-yard-line in the final minute.

Detroit Lions (-6) 31, New York Giants 26 (49): The Lions had a 14-0 lead early, but Detroit has made a habit of blowing leads this season. Sure enough the Giants scored the next two touchdowns, but missed a PAT to trail by one. The Lions would stretch the edge to four by halftime and led by five through three quarters after an exchange of touchdowns in the third with the Giants failing going for two. Detroit hit a big play early in the fourth quarter to lead by 12 before New York was stopped on downs on back-to-back possessions. Detroit would go backwards on both late possessions and getting the ball back just ahead of the two-minute warning, the Giants were a backdoor threat. A 25-yard pass interference call put New York in business and with 1:19 remaining the Giants found the end zone. Down six, New York matched the closing number and opted to kick the important PAT to lose by just five.

Tennessee Titans (-2) 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 (45½): The Buccaneers have appealing numbers but the consistent turnovers stand out and they came to bite in this contest with Tampa Bay posting a 389-246 yardage edge in a narrow loss. The Titans led by two at halftime after the Buccaneers went for two after a score right before the break and came up short. The Buccaneers would get eight on an early third quarter score however to lead by six. Tennessee added a late third quarter field goal to trail by three, but forced a punt with Tampa Bay unwilling to go for it on 4th-and-1 in its own territory. The Titans then nearly doubled their offensive production for the game with a 12-play, 90-yard drive to deliver the go-ahead score, slipping past the slight favorite spread with 6:55 to go as well. Tampa Bay had three more possessions that ended in a fumble, failing on 4th-and-1 in Tennessee territory, and finally a deep pass from Jameis Winston intercepted at the Tennessee 25-yard-line.

Los Angeles Chargers (+3) 17, Chicago Bears 16 (41): The Bears commanded this game in the numbers, but settled for three first half field goals while the Chargers got a touchdown. The scoring mode flipped in the third quarter as the Bears were able to find the end zone and led 16-10 as a slight home favorite after a Chargers field goal late in the third quarter. Mitchell Trubisky fumbled in Chicago territory on the next possession and the Chargers were able to go 26 yards for a touchdown in three plays to lead by one. Chicago had a productive drive to reach the Los Angeles 37-yard-line, but Trubisky took a 3rd down sack and the Bears had to punt. The defense got the stop to give the Bears another chance and rather than taking a few shots to get a touchdown or get closer, the Bears took a knee in the final minute and watched Eddy Pinero miss left from 41 yards.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) 27, Atlanta Falcons 20 (48½): The closing line says seven but that wasn’t an overly common price on this game. Seattle opened at -3 and held at -3½ early in the week before number jumped with Matt Ryan ruled out. Seahawks -8 was typical over the weekend as results wound up varying on this game. Multiple outcomes didn’t seem possible as Seattle led 24-0 at halftime, but Matt Schaub would prove to be a productive backup getting the Falcons 11 points in the third quarter. A Seattle field goal with about six minutes left in the game made the lead 16 and seemed safe, but Atlanta went the distance in fewer than three minutes and suddenly was within 10, failing on a two-point conversion that mattered for many. In many ways that might have been a worse outcome for Seattle backers as with a two-score lead, the Seahawks could still relax and they punted back while taking just 27 seconds off the clock. Schaub and the Falcons managed the clock well and kicked a second down field goal without using a timeout to trail by seven while still leaving more than a minute on the clock, giving many late-week Falcons backers a win. The on-side kick went out of bounds to end any further threat as Seattle held on and the total that fell throughout the week stayed just ‘under’.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7) 29, New York Jets 15 (40): Jacksonville dominated this game in most ways and led 22-7 after a late third quarter field goal. An early fourth quarter touchdown with a successful two-point conversion suddenly put the Jets down just seven to land even with the common weekend number though early in the week Jacksonville opened at -4½ and was -6 to -6½ for long stretches. The Jaguars gained 30 yards on the next possession but had to punt. Hopes for a New York comeback were short-lived however with a penalty, a negative rushing play, and an interception on three snaps for the Jets. On a short field, Jacksonville found the end zone on 3rd-and-goal to go up by 14. Sam Darnold was intercepted across midfield on the next possession for the Jets while another late series ended on downs.

Los Angeles Rams (-12) 24, Cincinnati Bengals 10 (48½): In London, the Rams got more they bargained for with the winless Bengals with a 10-10 tie late in the second quarter before a trick play gave Los Angeles a 65-yard touchdown. Out of halftime, the Rams added another touchdown to slip past the heavy favorite spread. The Bengals appeared ready to answer reaching the edge for field goal range before going backwards and needing to punt on 4th-and-long. Cincinnati held the Rams to four straight punts the rest of the game, but two late drives deep into Los Angeles territory came up empty with a field goal not being worth considering given the time and score. The Bengals couldn’t convert from the 6-yard-line with about five minutes remaining and on a late drive appeared to get the underdog cover with a touchdown with eight seconds to go. On review, the play was overturned and the Bengals came up incomplete on its last shot from inside the 10. Winning by 14 with only 24 points, Rams backers escaped with a very fortunate cover in a game where the Bengals had more than 400 total yards, but just 10 points.

New Orleans Saints (-12½) 31, Arizona Cardinals 9 (48): Arizona trailed New Orleans just 10-6 at halftime but opted to go for it on 4th-and-1 form its own 30 early in the third quarter. The aggressive play was commendable as Kliff Kingsbury is breaking the mold, but the move backfired with the Saints adding a short-field touchdown to go up 17-6 a few plays later. Arizona would add a field goal and through three quarters both teams had three scores, but Arizona had only field goals. Still down one score, Arizona couldn’t get a big third down stop early in the fourth quarter and the Saints went up by 15. About halfway through the final frame, the Cardinals reached the New Orleans 27-yard-line, but a field goal did no good at that point and 3rd-and-2 and 4th-and-2 attempts to extend the series were stopped. A deflated Cardinals defense gave up back-to-back big plays as the Saints put the game away with another touchdown with five minutes to go.

Houston Texans (-5½) 27, Oakland Raiders 24 (52): The total wound up with mixed results on this game landing right on 51 where the number sat for big chunks of the week. Oakland led this game 21-13 as a Houston win didn’t seem in play but the Texans scored in the first few seconds of the fourth quarter and just went for one to trail 21-20. The Raiders managed a field goal to go up by four before a wild sequence with Deshaun Watson delivering a go-ahead touchdown pass but appearing to be seriously injured. Up three, the Houston defense forced an Oakland punt and was a serious threat to steal the cover, but Oakland exhausted its timeouts and Houston with Watson still in the game, was ultimately able to take a knee well across midfield after the two-minute warning without needing to try to advance further or consider a late field goal.

New England Patriots (-10) 27, Cleveland Browns 13 (43): Double-digit spreads in the NFL are rarely out of play as while the Patriots were in complete control after 17-0 first quarter, a Browns cover lurked as a real possibility. Down 27-10, Cleveland went for it on 4th-and-16 deep in its own territory and went further backwards. Dealt a 14-yard field, the Patriots went backwards as well and missed on a 34-yard field goal with about four minutes remaining. A touchdown would have trimmed the margin to 10, but the Browns came up just short of a 1st down on a late series in New England territory and after a false start pushed it to 4th-and-6, they opted to kick a field goal to trail by 13. The Browns would get the ball back with about a minute to go and picked up a big gain with a pass interference call but a sack followed. With no timeouts left and the clock would run out a few plays later with the game staying just ‘under’ as well.

Green Bay Packers (-5) 31, Kansas City Chiefs 24 (48): A quick 14-0 lead for the Packers was erased in the second quarter as the Chiefs got a good performance from Matt Moore and the defense created some pressure. The Sunday night game was tied 17-17 through three quarters and 24-24 with nine minutes to go. The Packers scored on a 67-yard short pass and run from Aaron Jones to lead by seven but more than eight minutes remained. The Chiefs reached the 40-yard-line and opted to punt on 4th-and-3 with more than five minutes remaining and three timeouts left, a decision it isn’t clear they would make with Patrick Mahomes. Green Bay was able to covert a pair of third downs and run out the remaining clock for the win and narrow cover.