NFL Betting: Top 5 Easiest Schedules
By Larry Hartstein
Covers.com
Life isn’t fair, and neither is the NFL schedule. League honchos apply the formula, then give maximum exposure to popular teams.
A few days ago we identified the five toughest NFL schedules. Now we examine which teams have the easiest paths to 2012 success.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
2011 record: 13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS
Odds to win Super Bowl: 7/1; AFC: 3/1
Despite making the Super Bowl, the Pats benefit from mediocre-to-bad division opponents (Jets, Dolphins, Bills) and a schedule rotation that has the AFC East facing the AFC South and NFC West, perhaps the two softest divisions.
New England’s opponents went a combined 116-140 (.453) in 2011, easiest in the NFL. The Pats play just four playoff teams from last year, and three of those games (Denver, Houston, San Fran) are at Gillette Stadium.
The only real difficulty is a travel stretch in October. New England flies cross-country to face Seattle on Oct. 14, comes home to play the arch rival Jets, then flies to London to play the Rams.
HOUSTON TEXANS
2011 record: 10-6 SU, 9-5-2 ATS
Odds to win Super Bowl: 10/1; AFC: 4/1
It would be a shock if Houston does worse than 5-1 in its division. The Texans, who finished No. 2 in defense last season, likely will face QBs Andrew Luck, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker twice each.
Texans’ opponents went a combined 121-135 (.473), tied for third easiest. No team has a more appealing three-game finish: Indianapolis, Minnesota, at Indianapolis.
Houston’s toughest stretch comes in early October, when the Texans visit the Jets on Monday Night Football (Oct. 8), then host Green Bay (Oct. 14) and Baltimore (Oct. 21).
The bye comes after Week 7.
“I like it,” coach Gary Kubiak told the Houston Chronicle. “Any time it’s close to the middle is good. You never know how it’s going to pan out for your team as far as is it a good time? Do you need some extra time to get some guys healthy? I think any time you’re somewhere there in the middle, it gives you a break and gets you ready for the back end (of the schedule).”
BUFFALO BILLS
2011 record: 6-10 SU, 6-9-1 ATS
Odds to win Super Bowl: 50/1; AFC: 25/1
Buffalo and Miami both finished 6-10 last season, but the Bills took the cellar by virtue of getting swept by the Dolphins. The payoff comes now. Buffalo’s last-place schedule features Kansas City and Cleveland instead of Oakland and Cincinnati.
Like the Pats, Buffalo gets to face the NFC West and AFC South. Bills’ opponents went 121-135 (.473), tied for third easiest.
Five of the Bills’ final seven games are at Ralph Wilson Stadium, where they finished 5-3 last year.
If the Bills are anywhere near wild card contention, opposing offenses won’t like going to Buffalo in December and facing a D-line that just added ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to inside studs Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
2011 record: 3-13 SU, 6-8-2 ATS
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1; NFC: 50/1
Notwithstanding six tough divisional games and a home game against San Fran, the Vikes have a chance to make major improvements. Especially if Adrian Peterson comes back healthy and quarterback Christian Ponder continues to develop.
Ponder certainly won’t mind if Minnesota, as expected, picks USC left tackle Matt Kalil at No. 3 overall in the upcoming draft.
Minnesota opens at home against Jacksonville before visiting Indy. The Vikes should be favored in both.
Minnesota plays all the other 2011 last-place NFC teams: St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Washington. Home games against Arizona and Tennessee also look winnable.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
2011 record: 4-12 SU, 4-12 ATS
Odds to win Super Bowl: 100/1; NFC: 50/1
New coach Greg Schiano and the new-look Bucs have a chance to get off to a good start as they host Carolina in the Sept. 9 opener. They also get Washington and Kansas City at home in the first five weeks. San Diego and St. Louis come to Raymond James Stadium later.
Tampa Bay’s opponents went a combined 124-132 (.484) last season, sixth easiest.
The Bucs made a big splash by signing WR Vincent Jackson and G Carl Nicks, and they own the No. 5 pick in the draft.
Tampa Bay only has one likely cold-weather game, at Denver on Dec. 2.