NFL Betting Trends, Sunday, December 10th, 2017

NFL

Week 14

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Trend Report

Sunday, December 10

SAN FRANCISCO @ HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home

OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oakland's last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Oakland is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

CHICAGO @ CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games

GREEN BAY @ CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 11 games at home
Cleveland is 4-16-1 ATS in its last 21 games at home

DETROIT @ TAMPA BAY
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

DALLAS @ NY GIANTS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Dallas's last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games

WASHINGTON @ LA CHARGERS
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Washington's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

TENNESSEE @ ARIZONA
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Arizona's last 18 games at home

NY JETS @ DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets

SEATTLE @ JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games

PHILADELPHIA @ LA RAMS
Philadelphia is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
LA Rams is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

NFL

Week 14

Sunday's games
Lions (6-6) @ Buccaneers (4-8)— Stafford hurt his hand late in loss to Ravens LW; check status. Untested Iowa alum Rudock is his backup. Lions allowed 74 points in losing last two games (turnover ratio of -5); they’re 4-2 on road, losing by 14 in Superdome, 24 in Baltimore. Tampa Bay lost seven of last eight games; they got QB Winston back last week, and are 3-2 at home, losing 19-14 to Patriots, 17-3 to Carolina. Detroit won three of last four series games, winning 27-20/23-20ot in last two visits here, with last visit here in ’11. NFC South non-divisional home teams are 7-10 vs spread; NFC North road teams are 7-6. Last five Detroit games went over total; four of Buccaneers’ five home games stayed under.

Bears (3-9) @ Bengals (5-7)— Last week, Bears were first team in NFL history to run a punt back for a TD, not allow a TD, win turnover battle and still lose the game. Last two weeks combined, Bears have run 85 plays for 287 yards- not good. Short week for Bengals after blowing 17-0 lead in Monday night loss to hated Steelers. Since 2005, Cincy is 5-9-1 vs spread in game the week following loss to Pittsburgh. Bengals covered their last four games; they’re 3-3 SU at home, 2-3 as home favorites. Chicago lost its last five gamesBengals won four of last six series games; teams split four meetings played here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-5-1 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 6-6. Over is 4-2-1 in last seven Bengal games.

Colts (3-9) @ Bills (6-6)— Bills QB Taylor hurt his knee LW, would be replaced here by rookie Peterman who threw five picks in one dreadful half vs Chargers in his only NFL start. Buffalo lost four of its last five games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-0-1 as home favorites. Indy lost six of its last seven games; they’re 2-4 as road underdogs, with only win 20-14 (+7) in Houston. Colts won seven of last nine series games, but most of that was in Manning era for Colts; Indy lost 30-7/27-14 in last two visits here. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 3-4-1 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4-1. Bills are -8 in turnovers their last five games; they were +14 in their first seven. Last four Indy games stayed under the total.

Seahawks (8-4) @ Jaguars (8-4)— Seahawks won seven of their last nine games; they won last four road games, after losing first two- Seattle is 1-2 as road underdogs. Jacksonville won five of its last six games; they’re 4-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, losing to Titans/Rams. Jaguars allowed 23+ points in their four losses; they’re 8-0 when they allow 17 or less. Seahawks scored 22+ points in six of their last seven games. Seattle is 5-2 against the Jaguars; home side won last four series games. Teams split four games played here. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 4-7 vs spread; AFC South home favorites are 5-4-1. Under is 6-2 in Seattle’s last eight games, 5-1 in Jaguars’ last six.

Raiders (6-6) @ Chiefs (6-6)— Teams are in 3-way tie with Chargers atop AFC West. Chiefs lost six of last seven games after a 5-0 start; KC is 3-2 as home favorites, winning by 7-9-8 points, losing to Steelers/Bills. Chiefs have only one takeaway (-4) in their last four games. Raiders won three of last four games; they’re 2-3 in true road games, 1-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 17-6-20 points, with wins in Nashville, Miami. Chiefs (-3) lost 31-30 in Oakland in Week 7; Raiders gained 505 yards, threw for 417 as they snapped 5-game series skid. Oakland lost its last four games in Arrowhead, by 17-18-6-8 points. Last three Raider games stayed under total, as did three of last four Chief games. KC is 0-4 in games decided by less than 7 points.

Vikings (10-2) @ Panthers (8-4)— Minnesota is on road for third week in a row; they won their last eight games, covered last seven. Vikings are 4-1 in true road games, with only loss 26-9 in Pittsburgh. In their last four games, Minnesota is 27-51 (52.9%) on 3rd down, their opponents 12-46 (26.1%). Carolina won four of its last five games; they’re 3-2 at home, losing to Saints, Eagles, winning by 6-3-24 points. Panthers are 8-4 despite a -7 turnover ratio; they have only 11 takeaways. Carolina scored 11 TD’s on its last 30 drives; eight of them were 75+ yard drives. Vikings won three of last four series games; they won 22-10 in Charlotte LY. Four of last six Viking games went over the total, as have last three Carolina games.

Packers (6-6) @ Browns (0-12)— Winless Cleveland is 3-9 vs spread, 2-3 at home, losing games on Lake Erie by 3-24-3-3-12 points. Browns are -20 in turnovers because in part because Kizer isn’t an NFL-caliber QB; in their last nine games, Cleveland scored 63 points on 21 red zone drives, which is really poor. Green Bay lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-3 on road, 0-1 as road favorite. Packers have been outscored in 2nd half in six of last seven games. Green Bay is 3-1 against the Browns, winning by 23-28-18 points, winning 31-3 in its last visit here, in ’09. All five Cleveland home games stayed under the total; four of last five Packer games went over. Last two weeks, Green Bay opponents converted 17 of 29 third down plays.

49ers (2-10) @ Texans (4-8)— 49ers won Garoppolo’s first start LW, despite not scoring a TD; they were first team in NFL history to allow punt return for a TD, not score a TD, lose turnover battle and still win the game. Niners won two of last three games; they’re 4-2 vs spread as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-3-3-2-23 points, with win in Chicago. Texans lost five of their last six games; they’re 3-3 at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with wins by 43-16-10 points. In their last three games, Houston lost field position by 13-13-14 yards; they haven’t led at halftime since Watson got hurt. Home side won all three series games; 49ers lost 24-21 in last visits here, in ’09. Despite their win last week, Niners had no TD’s (five FG’s) in five red zone drives.

Redskins (5-7) @ Chargers (6-6)— Chargers are 6-2 in last eight games, winning last three, by 30-22-9 points- they were +10 in turnovers in those games. Bolts won last three home games after losing first three- they’re 1-2 as home favorites. Redskins lost five of last seven games; they are 2-4 on road, beating Rams/Seattle, losing by 9-10-3-24 points. Washington is 7-3 against the Chargers; five of last six series games were decided by 5 or less points or in OT. Teams split four series games that were played in California. Over is 6-2 in last eight Washington games; six of last seven Charger games stayed under. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 9-3 against the spread; AFC West home favorites are 4-9 vs spread.

Jets (5-7) @ Broncos (3-9)— Denver is horrible, losing last eight games (0-8 vs spread); their offense was outscored 9-0 by the Miami defense last week. Broncos are 1-4 vs spread as a dog this year- they lost last three home games, by 13-25-3 points. In its last six games, Denver lost field position by 11+ yards five times. Jets lost five of their last seven games; they’re 1-4 on road, with only win by FG in Cleveland. Jets are 3-1 when allowing 20 or less points. 2-6 if they allow more than 20. Denver won four of last five series games; this is Jets’ first visit here since 2011. Four of last six Denver games went over the total, as did three of last four Jet games. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 10-8-1 vs spread, 6-5 on the road.

Titans (8-4) @ Cardinals (5-7)— Tennessee won six of its last seven games; four of their last five wins were by 4 or less points. Titans are 3-3 on road, 2-2 as road favorites; they’re 7-0 when they score 20+ points, 1-4 if they score less than 20. Arizona was outscored 55-24 in 2nd half of its last three games; they’re at home for 3rd week in row. Cardinals lost three of last four games, are 3-3 at home, 2-2-1 as home underdogs. Arizona leads series 6-4; they won last meeting in OT in Nashville in 2013- this is Titans’ first visit to the desert since ’05. Over is 7-4 in Titans’ last 11 games, 3-0 in Arizona’s last three. Tennessee outscored its last two opponents 28-6 in 2nd half; in their last six games, Titans allowed an average of only 66.5 rushing yards/game.

Eagles (10-2) @ Rams (9-3)— Eagles have 4-game lead with four weeks left; Rams lead by game in NFC West, and visit Seattle next week. Philly had 9-game win streak snapped LW; Eagles are 4-2 on road, 1-1 as road underdogs. Iggles turned ball over five times in last two games, after turning it over only five times in previous seven games. Last week was first time since Week 1 that Philly ran for less than 100 yards. Rams won six of their last seven games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites. LA won field position battle in last seven games; they’re only 9-36 on 3rd down in last three games. Eagles won last four series games; last meeting was in ’14. Rams’ last win was in ’04. Four of last five Eagle games stayed under, as did three of Rams’ last four games.

Cowboys (6-6) @ Giants (2-10)— McAdoo is gone, Manning is back at QB for Giants team that is 1-4 at home, with only win 12-9 in OT over the Chiefs. New York is 1-4 as home underdogs this season. In their last three games, Giants are 10-41 on 3rd down. Cowboys had extra prep time after playing on Thursday LW; they’ve lost three of last four games, are 3-2 on road, losing in Denver, Atlanta, both by 20+ points. Cowboys are 5-3 vs spread as favorites this year, 3-1 on road. Dallas (-4) beat the Giants 19-3 at home in season opener; outrushing them 129-35, winning despite scoring only 16 points in four visits to red zone. Cowboys are 6-3 in last nine series games, but lost 27-20/10-7 in last two visits here.

Ravens (7-5) @ Steelers (10-2)— Shazier/Smith-Schuster are both out for Steelers, after tough win in Cincy Monday night. Steelers won their last seven games; four of their last five wins were by 5 or less points. Pitt is 4-1 at home, 3-2 as home favorites. Ravens won four of last five games, allowing 11.8 ppg; they’re 2-1-1 as road underdogs. Pitt (-3) spanked Ravens 26-9 in Baltimore in Week 4, running ball for 172 yards; Baltimore turned ball over three times (-2), averaged 3.9 ypp. Ravens are +20 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in losses- they have 11 takeaways in their last three games. Baltimore won four of last five series games; they won two of last three visits here, with an OT win, playoff win. Over is 2-0-1 in last three Steeler games, 7-1 in Ravens’ last eight.

NFL opening line report: Focus is on the NFC in Week 14 with several key matchups
Patrick Everson

"We anticipate Saints money from the public, and this line could head south sooner than later."

Without question, the best Week 14 NFL games are in the NFC, as the playoff picture continues to evolve. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening lines for a handful of matchups, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2)

New Orleans had a one-game hiccup, then got right back to its winning ways and now stands atop the NFC South. The Saints (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) saw their eight-game win streak end in Week 12 at the Los Angeles Rams, but came home Sunday and beat Carolina 31-21 as a 5.5-point chalk.

Defending NFC champion Atlanta is making things tough for itself to even get back to the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl. The Falcons (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) had a nice little three-game SU and ATS win streak, then had a dismal offensive showing and lost at home to Minnesota 14-9 as a 2-point favorite in Week 13.

“Our team was anywhere from a pick ‘em to -3 for this matchup,” Cooley said. “The deuce felt like a fair number. We can see where the bettors are leaning early and adjust from there. We anticipate Saints money from the public, and this line could head south sooner than later.”

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+1)

Minnesota just keeps on rolling behind a top-notch defense that ranks No. 2 in the league in scoring, allowing just 17 points per game. On Sunday, the Vikings (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) went to Atlanta as a 2-point underdog and won a defensive slog 14-9.

Carolina (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) won and cashed four straight heading into Sunday’s showdown with New Orleans. But the Panthers couldn’t keep it going, losing 31-21 catching 5.5 points.

“No matter how many wins, the Vikings don’t get any love from the general betting public,” Cooley said. “Sharps were on them again (against the Saints), and likely will be here, but the squares aren’t hopping aboard, so these spreads are kept somewhat at bay. Of course, you have to think Minnesota is going to stumble at some point.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

Philadelphia has been the class of the NFC this season, but its impressive winning streak of nine games SU and eight games ATS finally ended Sunday night. The Eagles (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) went off as 3.5-point road chalk against Seattle and lost outright, 24-10.

Los Angeles is red-hot of late, going 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven outings. The NFC West-leading Rams (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS) doubled up Arizona 32-16 giving 7.5 points on the road Sunday.

With Philly having played in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu won’t post the line on this game until Monday.

“Depending on how Sunday night plays out, we could make this anywhere from a pick to L.A. a small ‘dog,” Cooley said. “If the latter happens, the Rams feel like a very live ‘dog at home. Despite the two prolific offenses, I expect to see sharp players on the under.”

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)

Kansas City started the season 5-0 SU and ATS and was 6-2 SU and ATS through eight weeks. The Chiefs (6-6 SU and ATS) haven’t won since then, dumping four in a row to fall into a three-way logjam atop the AFC West with Oakland and San Diego. On Sunday, K.C. blew a 14-0 lead by the end of the first quarter and ultimately lost to the New York Jets 38-31 as a 4-point road fave.

Oakland has also played far below expectations this season, but has won three of its last four (1-2-1 ATS). In Week 13, the Raiders (6-6 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) held off the New York Giants 24-17 giving 10 points at home.

“Early action from the pros has been on Oakland, which prompted a 1-point move. They really don’t like this K.C. squad right now, and it’s obvious why,” Cooley said of sharp Raiders action forcing Bookmaker down to K.C. -3.5. “That said, you know this losing streak is going to end soon, and this is a season-defining type of game for the Chiefs. Expect their best effort here.”

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 14
Monty Andrews

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 47.5)

Raiders' ragged secondary vs. Chiefs' elite ball security

The AFC West is officially the craziest division in the NFL, with three teams tied for the division lead as we enter the final four weeks of the regular season. This week's encounter between the streaking Raiders and the tumbling Chiefs will have a significant impact on how the final standings play out - and despite Kansas City having squandered what was a comfortable lead just a month ago, it has a sizeable edge in this one when it comes to retaining possession on offense.

The Oakland pass defense is a major reason why the Raiders are sitting at .500 through 13 weeks rather than leading the division by several games. By any measure, Oakland has struggled mightily to contain opposing signal callers, surrendering 20 pass touchdowns with just one interception; only one other team, the Atlanta Falcons (three), have fewer than five INTs. In addition, Oakland's 108.2 passer rating against is easily the worst in football.

Despite Kansas City's recent struggles, don't expect the Raiders secondary to suddenly look like world beaters against Alex Smith. The Chiefs have perennially been one of the lowest-turnover offenses in football with Smith at the helm, and 2017 is no exception - Kansas City has thrown just six interceptions, tied for the fourth-fewest in the league. Look for Smith to pick apart Oakland's pass defense, which should at least give the Chiefs a fighting chance of ending their four-game losing skid.

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 40.5)

Packers' red-zone proficiency vs. Browns' broken defense

No Aaron Rodgers? No problem - okay, several problems, but not as many as fans and bettors thought after the Packers lost their franchise quarterback to a collarbone injury in a Week 6 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay evened its record at 6-6 with an impressive 26-20 overtime win over Tampa Bay, and with Rodgers due back later this month, a postseason spot remains in play. The Packers will look to improve their chances this week by exploiting a major edge in red-zone play against winless Cleveland.

If there is one area where Green Bay has remained as potent as ever, it is in turning red-zone opportunities into six points. The Packers come into Week 14 with a success rate of nearly 65 percent inside the opponents' 20-yard line, the third-best rate in the league. That red-zone proficiency was on full display in last week's victory over the Buccaneers, when Aaron Jones ran in his only carry from the Tampa Bay 20-yard line to give the Packers a critical victory.

The Browns have been halfway decent at limiting opponent yardage (327.2, 10th in NFL), but are lagging behind in just about every other defensive metric. That includes red-zone points against, with Cleveland having allowed a touchdown on 68.6 percent of foes' trips inside their 20 - the second-worst rate in the NFL. The Browns' chances of earning win No. 1 will likely hinge on their ability to hold Green Bay to field goals - and if that's the case, bettors shouldn't hold their breath.

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3, 43)

49ers' third-down troubles vs. Texans' punt-forcing prowess

A two-game losing skid and a date with a suddenly improving San Francisco team has the host Texans staring at a minuscule edge in the Vegas line this weekend. Yet, despite having lost four of its past five games to guarantee a non-winning season, Houston is still in good position heading into Week 14. Not only have the Texans prevailed in two of their previous three home games, but they have been a force on third downs - and the 49ers, for lack of a more eloquent turn of phrase, have not.

Perhaps the switch at quarterback from C.J. Beathard to Jimmy Garoppolo will mean great things for the 49ers on third down - after all, they went a stunning 10-for-18 in such situations in Garoppolo's first start in the red and gold. But one game is just that - and if you look at the season, San Francisco is still converting just 36.3 percent of third downs, good for 26th out of 32 teams. And getting to third down 18 times against the Texans probably won't turn out nearly as well for Garoppolo and the visitors.

Only five teams have been stingier on third down than the Texans, who have forced a punt or fourth-down try on 65.9 percent of opponent opportunities. Houston has been even tighter over the previous three games, allowing teams to extend drives or score on just 31.4 percent of third-down chances. And with opponents converting just 32.4 percent of their third-down opportunities at NRG Stadium, it could be a long afternoon for Garoppolo and the rest of the San Francisco offense.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 44)

Ravens' ball-hawking skills vs. Big Ben's interception troubles

The Ravens still have a shot at the NFC North title - albeit a small one - as they prepare to visit Ben Roethlisberger and the division-leading Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. Baltimore did its part to remain in the hunt with a 44-20 drubbing of the Detroit Lions - its third consecutive victory - and will be looking to atone for a 26-9 loss to the Steelers in their previous meeting Oct. 1. Even though Heinz Field is Big Ben's personal playground, the Ravens have the secondary to make life miserable for him.

The Ravens continue to lead the NFL in interceptions with 20 - four more than the runner-up Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars. And while it's fair to note that eight of those picks came in Baltimore's first two games - specifically, four each against the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns - the Ravens are still a top-six interception unit even if they hadn't recorded an INT in either of those contests. Opponents throw a pick on 5.14 percent of passing plays vs. Baltimore.

Roethlisberger escaped with just one interception in the Steelers' Week 4 triumph in Baltimore, but that was largely because his team ran the ball an unbelievable 42 times in the victory. Pittsburgh passers - yes, plural, thanks to Robert Golden's 44-yard completion in a Week 7 win over Cincinnati - come into this weekend with (12) interceptions, the seventh-most of any team. And with the Ravens looking to make up for their earlier loss, Pittsburgh might want to fire up 35 more carries for Le'Veon Bell.