NFL Betting Trends To Watch For
By: Michael Hill
Statfox.com is always on the lookout for betting trends to help you win you more money. We pore over our proprietary database frequently to see what shakes out. Sometimes the numbers don’t deviate much past 50 percent, but oftentimes our hunches prove to be true. Below are four such cases of our research paying off, which hopefully produces even more payoffs for you.
Majority of bettors playing Over:
There has been a solid trend developing over the last few weeks regarding plays OVER the total. In games for which the vast majority of wagering support is going to the Over, the majority is proving to be correct. So far this season, the Over has gained 80% or more of the action on the Total for 17 games. In these games, the over has hit 12 times (71%). When you limit the sample to the past three weeks (Weeks 5-7), the success rate is even higher at 8-for-10 (80%). In Week 7 alone, this angle was a perfect 4-for-4 with three of the games going 20-plus points higher than the total:
Oakland/Denver - 87% Over Total: 43, Points Scored: 73
Cincinnati/Atlanta - 83% Over Total: 43, Points Scored: 71
Jacksonville/Kansas City - 81% Over Total: 39.5, Points Scored: 62
Cleveland/New Orleans - 80% Over Total: 44, Points Scored: 47
Bettors wisely picked the Over despite three of these games featuring back-up quarterbacks starting (Colt McCoy for Cleveland, Todd Bouman for Jacksonville and Jason Campbell for Oakland). Be sure to keep an eye out for opportunities such as these as we get closer to kickoff for Week 8.
Line movement:
Last week, we took a look at games for which there was significant line movement toward one side. When the line moved toward the underdog by more than one point over the course of the week, we suggested strong plays on those underdogs based on their 89% success rate. Week 7 presented three such opportunities, two of which were winners both ATS and SU.
Our stats, along with information from the FoxSheets, showed a lot of support for Cleveland as a double-digit underdog (+14 to +12.5) at New Orleans. Not only did the Browns cover, they stunned the defending Super Bowl champs outright. The line movement to the underdog angle also would have led you to a play on formerly winless Carolina, who dropped from +3 to +1.5 by kickoff against San Francisco. The Panthers also won straight up, 23-20. The lone loser with this angle was Cincinnati (+4.5 to +3), which entered the fourth quarter with a lead over Atlanta before falling 39-32.
Double-digit spreads:
Week 7 wasn’t the first time the Saints had struggled as a heavy favorite. Week 7 was the second time in as many opportunities that they were unable to cover a 12.5-point spread. They almost lost outright to Carolina in Week 4 when favored by the same wide margin. The Saints are not alone in their struggles as double-digit favorites. Overall, there have been 11 games for which the spread has been 10 or greater this season. While Cleveland’s upset win over New Orleans stands as the lone outright win for the underdogs in these contests, the ‘dogs are 7-4 (64%) ATS in these instances.
Super Bowl hangover:
Since winning both SU and ATS in Week 1 vs. Minnesota, New Orleans is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in the Superdome. The Saints host the formidable Pittsburgh Steelers in the Big Easy in Week 8 in what has opened as a pick ‘em game. On the flip side, the Steelers have been road warriors, posting records of 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, with the lone ATS failure occurring this past weekend in their controversial win over Miami. Interestingly, the Steelers struggled as they began defense of their Super Bowl title a year ago, getting off to a 1-5 start ATS (4-2 SU) on their way to finishing 5-10 ATS and 9-7 SU, missing out on the postseason. That was last year, though, and this year there are a lot of signs pointed in Pittsburgh’s direction this weekend.