Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 10/16/18
Books survive Week 6
October 15, 2018
By Micah Roberts
Week 6 of the NFL Sunday had two root games that would determine the fate of the Nevada sports book and when the Broncos (+7) got the back-door cover at home against the Rams in a 23-20 loss, that appeared to be the biggest of them all. That late TD was worth at least a half million, right?
"No, we didn't win a half-million (on the Rams), but it was a good decision," said MGM Resorts sports book hub manager Jeff Stoneback. "It was our second-best game," he said, "but the best game was the Dolphins winning. The Bears ran from -3 to -6.5 -130 at our place, but I saw as high as -7.5 out there."
Miami quarterback Ryan Tannehill hurt his shoulder last week at Cincinnati, where the Dolphins lost their second straight after starting 3-0, and not many people gave it a second thought that he wouldn't play. It wasn't built into the number and stayed Bears -3.5 for most of the week. But news started to slowly leak Saturday that the shoulder may make him a game-time situation and then the number really started to roll Sunday morning from -5 all the way up to -7.
Once known that Tannehill wouldn't play, every bettor on the planet knew back-up QB Brock Osweiler, the butt of many jokes, would be the starter and they apparently went all in with Bears play on straight bets and parlays counting it as an easy win. However, the Dolphins rallied multiple times to win 31-28 in overtime with Osweiler throwing 380 yards with 3 TDs.
"We were a moderate loser before the Dolphins posted as a win for us," Stoneback said. The Dolphins win was the last nine 10 am PT games posted. "The three afternoon games turned out well for us," he said.
Station Casinos 18 books across Las Vegas were in the same boat.
"The morning was not good with really the only the Dolphins and Jets being helpful," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "The afternoon Broncos cover and Cowboys wins were fantastic. The only thing left to complete a decent day is for the Chiefs to cover, which is a healthy decision for us."
The books would get the decision they wanted with Chiefs (+4) covering in a 43-40 loss at New England. The small favorite on the money line with the underdog covering usually works out well for the house, the bookmaker's dream.
"Our biggest liability on the Sunday night game was Over 59.5 total points," said Stoneback.
The two elite AFC squads combined for 30 points in the fourth quarter and the Chiefs tallied 446 yards and the Patriots had 500 yards. The Chiefs took their first loss on the season, but they're still the only perfect 6-0 team against the spread.
Perhaps the most shocking decision of the day was how easy the Cowboys manhandled the Jaguars defense as well as how dominant the Cowboys (+3.5) defense was home in the 40-7 win. The Jags had just 204 yards of total offense.
The best games for the public happened early with the Falcons (-3) covering at home in a 34-29 win against the Buccaneers and also the Steelers (+1) winning at Cincinnati, 28-21. The Chargers (PK) also had plenty of support at Cleveland in a 38-14 win.
Overall, favorites went 6-7 ATS on Sunday with four underdogs winning straight up while the 'over' went 7-6.