NFL: Buyer's Remorse - DP

There is so much to cover here. First off, I’m getting murdered in the playoffs which is only making me lean harder as we march forward to hedge the game. The 2018 NFL playoffs are absolute mayhem, and while the Saturday games ended up being duds, the Sunday matchups absolutely made up for it with some of the craziest action I have ever seen.

Let’s sift through the rubble and sort out where we went wrong, what we got right, and what to look forward to as we barrel on towards one of my favorite days of the year – Championship Sunday.

Odds per BetOnline.ag

MATT RYAN CHOKES AWAY ANOTHER PLAYOFF GAME
(PHI +2.5 over ATL)

I spent the entire year ragging on the Falcons, and the one time I backed them with conviction they screwed me over. I should’ve held to my guns, but there was no way I was going to bank money on Nick Foles. The backup quarterback had an unusually competent game with 23-of-30 completions for 246 yards but those seven missed passes were also pretty terrible. The ball leaves Foles’ hand like it’s going to be a beauty, and then you see it sail out of bounds over his receivers outstretched hands and all you can think is “woof”.

Foles did his job, ensuring that he didn’t lose the game while letting the rest of his teammates shine. The Eagles seemingly calibrated for Foles’ shortcomings, which is a sign of how good Pederson is at his job. But you could argue that the Falcons lost this game more than the Eagles won it. Honestly I hate using phrases like that, but it feels true with this game.

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Matt Ryan was awful in the end zone. You’d think that the reigning league MVP, who came off an incredible offensive season in 2016 and an NFC Championship would have…what’s the word…”command” of the offence.

Steve Sarkisian is an idiot. Everyone has known this and I don’t know why or how people keep hiring him to run offences. His play calling is unimaginative, like it’s straight out of a textbook called Coordinating Offence for Dummies. Ryan should have the authority to audible at the line, or influence the play calling in a way that better suits what he did last year. It can’t always be mental, especially when the Falcons had gained some serious momentum over the last few weeks.

You could almost see it on Ryan’s face. He played the entire second half scared, like he knew “it” was going to happen again, and the team seemed to feel it too. The game was by no means out of reach for Atlanta at any point. They were leading at the half and then never scored another point. They didn’t even get in field goal range. How does that happen?

Philadelphia’s defence is good, but they’ve been vulnerable through the air all season long and the game script for Atlanta was setting up perfectly. Tevin Coleman was beasting this game, but for whatever reason the Falcons went away from him. He ran for 79 yards on 10 carries and then ceded to Freeman for the remainder of the game. Freeman had 7 rushing yards.

Coleman’s production should’ve opened things up for Ryan. He attempted 36 passes, only completed 22 of them and whenever he needed to come up big, he came up short. It’ll be another torturous summer for Ryan wondering what could’ve been if he hadn’t blown it.

Also, could someone please tell Arthur Blank to stop coming down to the sideline? They flashed him in the fourth quarter next to his players and you could just hear Atlanta fans moaning “Damnit, we’re screwed” from the deep south.

I know that this rant should be about Philadelphia, but they’re about to be steamrolled by the Vikings. They would’ve been killed by New Orleans as well. They’re fine. I think they’ve gone from “juggernaut” to “pretty competent” with Foles in place of Wentz, and honestly I do not want to live in a world where Nick Foles can somehow get to the Super Bowl.

TENNESSEE CHECKS OUT HALFWAY THROUGH BLOWOUT
(NE -14.5 over TEN)

The most tired trope in professional football is the running team that abandons the run after they go down by two touchdowns. That’s exactly what happened in this game and it drove me absolutely bonkers. I will never understand why a team does that.

Derrick Henry was coming off a career defining performance against Kansas City where he pounded them for 156 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. The week before, he helped seal a fantastic win over Jacksonville with 28 carries for 51 yards. The yardage for Henry is always dependent on him breaking off a huge run, but there were moments against New England where it seemed possible.

And that was the only way Tennessee was going to have a chance in this game. Yet, for some dumb reason, the Titans converted themselves in to a pocket passing team and watched Mariota get sacked 8 times for 52 lost yards even though it seemed like he lost more. Mariota was having a decent day on the ground, but took a big hit in the first half that seemed to take him out of the running game.

The loss of Ty Conklin was massive, but it shouldn’t have led to the Titans abandoning the run the way they did.

Tennessee was never going to win that game, but the idea of Henry wearing down their defence heading in to the fourth quarter was the only thing that was going to give them a chance. One of the reasons that Mariota kept getting sacked beyond the fact that he just didn’t throw it away was that the coverage for New England involved mostly eight guys blanketing the secondary. The Pats would rush three or four guys, still somehow get in to the backfield, and there was nobody to throw to.’

You know why? Because the Titans receivers aren’t that good. It was a baffling decision by Mularkey who is thankfully gone from Tennessee with Josh McDaniels in line to takeover. Through the first quarter of the game, Tennessee looked like it could keep the game close but Mularkey went golfing halfway through and the team could feel it. When the coach loses hope, the team loses hope.

Then again, we should’ve seen this coming and I said as much last week during my previews. I didn’t mind taking Tennessee as a big time underdogs, but the Patriots tend to cover in games that they win. Take that for whatever you think it’s worth as the Patriots face a -9.5 line currently that is sure to go down according to rumblings from around the gambling circle.

BORTLES! FREAKING BORTLES! WAIT…
(JAX +7.0 over PIT)

There’s a lot to unpack here. I know that Pittsburgh is good, but what the hell was with their play calling at the end of the game? Why did they throw it on 4th down when they could’ve just sneaked the QB? Why kick an onside kick before the two-minute drill to essentially put Jacksonville in range? Why not kick the field goal early and then go for the onside kick and try to score a touchdown to tie? What was Antonio Brown thinking not getting out of bounds on his last reception?

And beyond all of this – how did Ben Roethlisberger throw for 469 yards and 5 touchdowns against the best defence in the NFL? The Steelers scored six times on offence and somehow still made Jacksonville look good. It was weird, and makes me worried about the bandwagons of bettors already piling money on Jacksonville as an upset specialist in New England.

Credit Doug Marrone and his staff for having a pretty damn perfect read on Pittsburgh’s defence. The Jaguars spliced the Steelers early on to bury them, and then came up with big pass plays every time they needed them in the second half. Bortles only connected on 14-of-26 passes, but every time the Jags needed to convert on third down he would throw ballistic missiles. It’s that thing where Bortles didn’t actually do much throughout the game, but he didn’t do that many bad things either.

Ultimately, the problem with Jacksonville is a matter of perception. The Jaguars are a great football team that would feel unstoppable if they had a quarterback who was reliable. But they don’t, and that’s the reality. Again, that defence is awesome in all the places you want it to be but they just gave up 469 yards and 5 touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger and a coaching staff that fell asleep at the wheel. To think that they have a chance against Brady is a bit bonkers when you consider the game from that perspective.

But we’ll get in to that later this week after I’m done picking up the shattered pieces of my life.

I DON’T EVEN KNOW WHAT HAPPENED IN MINNESOTA
(NO +5.5 over MIN)

This was the game that everyone wanted. An absolute slug fest that felt close the entire way through, even when New Orleans was down 0-17 in the first half. I loved everything about it.

Drama ramped up high when Payton burned two challenges, lost both of them and was then reduced to just one timeout in a game that was meant to come down to the wire. Michael Thomas balled out of control in the endzone in the second half. Alvin Kamara was making insane plays.

Perhaps the most unsung feature of this game was the refs, who really painted the Saints in to a tight corner with some loose pass interference calls. The zebras kept the flags in their pockets for much of the second half, which led to Thielen and Diggs fighting off very handsy coverage. But it led to actual football instead and I loved it.

Of course, you can’t talk about this game without mentioning Marcus Williams, who missed the biggest tackle in Saints history to allow Stefon Diggs to prance in to the endzone untouched. I can’t believe it. Marcus Peters summed it up best when he tweeted, “He closed his eyes like a sucka”. Williams knows he screwed up in the worst way possible.

The Saints overcame so much bad luck in that game too. The poor pass interference calls. The 17-point hole. Brees’ unfortunate tipped interception off a hand of a defensive lineman who just threw his hands in the air blindly after he got turned around. Willie Snead missing Kamara on a wide-open, trick play that the Saints love to unleash in the playoffs and usually score on. They were one tackle away from going to the NFC Championship and probably the Super Bowl.

Maybe this was the way the football gods balanced out the Brett Favre pick oh so many years ago. Maybe it was just a great football game that couldn’t have ended any other way. It was exactly what people are calling it – a Minnesota Miracle.

And now we have two former disciples of Jeff Fisher playing in the NFC Championship and a berth in the Super Bowl. How fitting is it that Keenum and Foles wear the numbers “7” and “9”? You can’t even make this stuff up.

The Patriots are -9.5 point favorites against Jacksonville while the Vikings are getting -3.5 on the road in Philadelphia.