NFL: Buyer's Remorse - WC

Buyer's Remorse - WC
January 8, 2018
By BetOnline.ag

Underdogs Roar In Wild Card Upsets

Sometimes when you’re wrong, you are so very wrong in a lot of ways. In this special edition of Buyer’s Remorse, we revisit a Wild Card weekend that was actually pretty wild for once. Bucking the trend of “home favorites are a lock”, the road upsets all covered and I lost my damn mind in the process. It’s playoff football. Sometimes you take really bad licks. I’m happier that they happen earlier in the wild card round than later on because there’s still plenty of time to recover.

Let’s figure out what the hell just happened, shall we?

Odds per BetOnline.ag

DERRICK HENRY BURNS CHIEFS IN 22-21 UPSET
(Ten +8.5 over KC)

I knew I was boned when Marcus Mariota caught a Mr. Perfect touchdown. That kind of play has a weird, supernatural habit of setting the tone for an entire weekend, especially when there’s so much on the line. And then Derrick Henry erupted like a volcano full of candy that we’ve been waiting on for two freaking years.

It’s hilarious that it took 18 weeks for Henry to actually post meaningful yards that weren’t built on junk garbage time. Most of his production through the season was off of single plays in the fourth quarter. When he was handed the keys against Seattle in Week 3, Henry managed just 54 yards on 13 attempts and never seemed to get in to a rhythm.

Time have changed in Tennessee. They know that Henry can make volume, and are also understanding that he needs a tad bit more room compared to DeMarco to get going. Once Henry has even a bit of momentum, defenders obviously don’t like tackling him. The one downside of Henry that I’ve always disliked is that he has a really pedestrian first step, and his acceleration is akin to an 18-wheeler. He’s 6-foot-3 and 250 pounds so I get that it’s not easy to move that load. The Titans were much better about giving him room to maneuver and gain steam in this game.

With the beloved Henry and the always liked Mariota engineering a comeback against the Chiefs, people seem to be hammering the Titans early as +13.5 dogs in New England. That’s fair. The Patriots have been known to key in on the best player of the opposition, but Henry is a load that can wear down defences over the course of the game. Mariota’s slipperiness is also a big x-factor.

I’m still not totally convinced that Tennessee belongs on the same field as the defending champions in the playoffs, but a line that is probably going to kiss two touchdowns is very hard to pass up. I wouldn’t overlook the fact that the Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid. That’s my biggest hang up. Reid has a knack for chocking in the playoffs and Belichik is the exact opposite. I’ll need a few days to stew on this.

Next Game: Tennessee at New England -13.5

RAMS FALL FLAT ON THEIR FACE TO FALCONS
(ATL +6 over LAR)

My narrative for this game was pretty simple. The Rams were one of the hottest teams in the league with an impending MVP on the roster who seemed unstoppable. They had encountered a comically easy schedule, but that didn’t seem to matter. The potential for the Falcons to drop off the face of the planet was real.

Instead, the narrative was the “been here before playoff team beating down the new kids on the block” and it played out as such. The Rams needed Goff to become a playoff hero to keep the game close, and he simply hadn’t done that enough in the season to come up with the goods in the heat of the moment.

It also helped that the Falcons figured out that feeding Julio Jones is a really, damn good idea. Jones is ready to rip the Eagles to shreds. I’m still tepid on the Falcons overall, but I seem to be the only one who watched the regular season. There’s no possible way anyone’s going to trust Foles with their money.

Atlanta has been very lucky this season, and getting a Wentz-less Eagles team in the divisional round is just another solid bounce. Frankly, Atlanta probably deserves some good fortune after everyone rode them for the whole “28-3” thing.

Next Game: Atlanta -3 at Philadelphia

BORTLES BRUTAL IN NARROW 10-3 WIN FOR JACKSONVILLE
(BUF +8.5 over JAC)

So who had Bortles running for more yards than he threw? Unbelievable that a guy who was drafted as a pocket passer and given a one-year deal worth over $20 million can only throw 12-for-23 completions for 87 yards. It was adorable seeing him run for his life (and probably for his career) like it was the final high school game of his life.

The big news for the Jaguars is how legitimate their defence is. Jalen Ramsey was toying with Kelvin Benjamin and whomever the Bills threw at him, and holy hell do I feel bad for Nathan Peterman. Of course the Bills’ season ends on a Nathan Peterman interception. What the hell.

Books are being flooded by speculation based on Jacksonville’s 30-9 over Pittsburgh from Week 5, but I’ll warn you that the Steelers did not care about the season at that point in the year. They lost to the Bears and Mike Glennon two weeks prior.

Of course, everything about this game hinges on the health of Antonio Brown who is returning from a torn calf muscle. If he’s not good to go like the Steelers need him to be, Jalen Ramsey is going to know it in the first drive. Leonard Fournette has also been absolutely average over the last two months of football and is not the gangbuster, drivetrain that he was in the beginning of 2017 so I have less and less hope for the Jaguars as I ponder this line.

Also, there’s that whole “warm weather team playing in a coldsnap” thing that gamblers love hinging on.

Next Game: Jacksonville at Pittsburgh -7.5

PANTHERS BLINDED BY SAINTS BUT STILL COVER
(CAR +6.5 over NO)

This was always meant to be the best game of the weekend, and if the Saints weren’t complete morons they would have covered the damn spread. Who goes for it on 4th and 2 in that situation?!

Unlike the two games they had in the regular season, Carolina showed up for this one with a neat little scheme package that capitalized on Christian McAffery’s astonishing talents for once. That guy is incredible.

What was telling about the Saints is that the Panthers completely stuffed their running game, giving up just 45 yards total on 19 carries to the combination of Kamara and Ingram, which had been ripping through foes like they were made of whipped butter. So in came Drew Brees, never looking better and dropping 376 yards and 2 touchdowns against one interception.

I advertised the Saints as a scary 10-to-1 longshot to win the NFC last week and I’m still riding that wagon. Going in to Minnesota to play a somewhat flawed Vikings team is going to be fascinating, and I love the Saints as +4.0 point underdogs already. Drew Brees in a dome against Case Keenum is going to be the tell-all of the NFC playoffs in my eyes.

But then again, we have a few more days to grind out the nitty gritty of the divisional round. If you haven’t cleared your Sunday afternoon for this game already, then do it.

Next Game: New Orleans at Minnesota -4