NFL Championship Betting News and Notes

OLR - Title Games
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Next Sunday’s conference championship games feature two of the NFL’s most public teams as underdogs, which may create betting value on the favorites. But with an historically-high total in the NFC title tilt, let’s start there with our opening line report.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook hung 58.5 as its original over/under for Packers at Falcons, but that number didn’t last long, as the oddsmakers moved along with the market. That meant making an already huge total ever larger.

“We put up 58.5, thinking that probably would be high, and then we saw it come a little bit higher (offshore) and move in that direction, so we said, ‘we’ll go with it,’” Westgate manager Ed Salmons said Sunday night. “I mean, there are no numbers for these Packers-Falcons game to keep them ‘under.’ The first time they played (Oct. 30 in Atlanta) it was 33-32 (Falcons).”

The Falcons, in fact, are 14-2-1 to the ‘over’ this season, including Saturday’s 36-20 win against Seattle in the divisional round that flew ‘over’ the 51.5. The ‘over’ has cashed in 10 of the Packers’ last 12 games, including the most recent six.

Totals as large as next Sunday’s number are seldom seen in the league. There are only a few in history that have been higher.

According to Pro Football Reference, the highest-ever total for an NFL playoff game was 60 for the Lions at Saints in 2012. It went ‘over’ in New Orleans’ 45-28 win.

The highest total for any game in NFL history is 63 for the Rams-49ers in 2000. That game stayed ‘under’ with the Rams winning 34-24.

A 31-30 win by the Raiders over the Chiefs on Christmas Day in 2004 went over the total of 60.

The Packers-Falcons over/under price is “warranted based on what you see,” Salmons said. “Atlanta plays a high-tempo game and with Green Bay you’ve got all the ingredients to be a crazy high-scoring game.”

Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, had a different take. He agreed with the notion that the number is artificially high because of anticipated ‘over’ money from the public.

“I don’t necessarily think it’s justified,” Simbal said of the lofty total. “We were saying today, ‘What fan that’s been betting all these games and winning is going to bet ‘under’ in that game?’ They’re going to bet ‘over’ or they’re not going to bet it. The Falcons score 30 points a game, so they’re not going to bet the ‘under’. So we figured we’d open it pretty high, but the sharps thought it was too high.”

CG opened the total 60 and when the book moved with the market to 61 , respected money showed up on the ‘under’, prompting a move back in the other direction.

“When we got to 61, they bet it ‘under’ and they were pretty sizable bets, and that’s why we moved it down to 59.5,” Simbal said.

While public bettors tend to bet ‘over’, they get gun shy with totals this high, according to Salmons. But, with the way these playoffs are going, they may not be able to resist.

“The rule of thumb in the past is the public will back away from favorites in the NFL when they’re higher than 14 (or when totals get to a certain threshold), and we’ve never had a total this high that I can remember in a playoff game. But they were laying the Patriots (Saturday night vs. the Texans) like 16.5 was 6.5, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they bet it ‘over’. It wouldn’t surprise me if it moved up.”

By Monday morning, CG was dealing 59.5 for the total, while the Westgate was at 60 and Stations Casinos was at the high end of the market at 61.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 59.5), Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET

The Westgate on Sunday night opened Atlanta -4 vs. Green Bay and moved to -4.5 after the first bet came on the favorite. The shop then adjusted with the market up to -5.5, but settled back to -4 later in the evening, Salmons said.

CG opened -4 and stood pat, booking two-way action at that price.

The Falcons went off at -6.5 vs. the Seahawks in Saturday night’s divisional playoff game, making the conference championship line against the Packers feel light. Thank the public nature of the Packers for that. According to CG’s power ratings, the Falcons are a theoretical 5.8-point favorite in this spot. The book went with a lower number because it is anticipating the public backing underdog Green Bay on the money line, Simbal said.

“I think you’re going to end up getting people who want to play Green Bay playing the money line at (about) +160,” he added. “I don’t think they’ll bother taking the 4 very much.”

Salmons said of public sentiment influencing this line, “If you reversed the team names and you made the Packers the Falcons and the Falcons the Packers, the line would probably be 7 or 7.5.”

Still, wiseguys weren’t interested early in the Falcons at -4, according to Simbal.

Green Bay cashed as the 3-point underdog in the Oct. 30 meeting between these teams, the aforementioned 33-32 win by Atlanta.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5, 51)

At CG Technology, the Patriots opened -5.5 vs. the Steelers in the AFC championship game, a number cheap enough to draw early sharp action on the favorite. The book took at a $4,000 bet and two $3,000 bets on New England on Sunday night, while only smaller, $200-type wagers came in on the dog.

According to CG’s power ratings, New England should be -6.5 or -7 at home vs. Pitt, Simbal said.

This game could be the rare sharps vs. public spot where the sharps are laying the points and the public is backing the dog.

“I figure the public to be on Pittsburgh here,” Simbal said. “They’re going to be on both dogs I think, money line specifically. We’re trying to hold back (on moving the line higher) because of that.”

But Salmons, whose shops opened New England -4.5 and moved with the market to -5.5, wouldn’t be surprised to see this spread grow to -6.5.

“It’s not going to take much (for that to happen),” he said. “It’s more than a field goal and less than a touchdown.”

He added, “I think we’ll get really good two-way action on this game. Next to Green Bay, Pittsburgh as an underdog is very popular.”

While these teams met Oct. 23, it’s a tough comparison to make, since Landry Jones was in for an injured Ben Roethlisberger. For what it’s worth, the Pats covered as 7.5-point road favorites in a 27-16 win but were outgained by the Steelers, 375-362.

FL Line Watch Championship Weekend
By Art Aronson
Covers.com

Game to bet on now

Pittsburgh at New England (-6)

If you want to catch the Patriots napping, probably the last thing you might want to do is call them A-holes, like Mike Tomlin did after his Steelers’ victory at Kansas City on Sunday. Kind of hard to crawl out of that hole if you want to avoid riling up the team that you have already lost to this season. Whether AholeGate has any sticking power and provides New England with any emotional firepower this coming Sunday is uncertain, but what is certain is that both teams will be searching for their offenses in this one. Pittsburgh somehow survived in KC without once finding the end zone, and in Foxboro the Patriots and Tom Brady (two interceptions) had more trouble than expected moving the ball against the Texans. NE’s late-October win at Pittsburgh can be disregarded because of the absence of Ben Roethlisberger, but the Patriots did hold down Le’Veon Bell (81 yards). If you think that the Pats’ spotty performance vs. Houston was a hiccup and NE is ready to roll again against an average Pittsburgh defense, you might want to lay the points now before heavy wagering affects the line or vig when we get closer to kickoff.

Game to wait on

Green Bay at Atlanta (-4)

There appears to be no obstacle too great for Green Bay to overcome. If the Packers need six wins in a row to get into the playoffs, they get them. Playoff victory over a Giants team that had owned the Packers? No problem. Go on the road and beat the rested Cowboys? Child’s play. Given that, it looks like Aaron Rodgers & Co. should be more than ready for Sunday’s NFC title game – even though they have to again play on the road against a top-level team. Oddsmakers installed the Falcons as a 5-point favorite, but gamblers – no doubt impressed by GB’s takedown of the Cowboys in Dallas (the Packers were 5-point dogs in that one) – scoffed at that. Packers money spoke loud and clear, and books were forced to drop the line to 4, which is the current consensus. Might be worth hanging on a bit to see if a second wave of wagering affects the line as the weekend nears.

Total to watch

Green Bay at Atlanta (60)

Total players must be choking at this line, but there is some reason for it. Two high-scoring teams at the top of their games, perfect temperature in a dome, suspect defenses, the top best QBs in the conference – all the elements will be in play. But 60 (the number was actually bet up after a 59.5 open)? That means scoring touchdowns and not settling for field goals, it means at least a few turnovers and short fields, it means neither team emphasizing the run, it means at least a couple of PI penalties on long passes. Lots of things after to happen. And just might.

NFC Championship Notes
VegasInsider.com

Green Bay (12-6 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) at Atlanta (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS)

Line Movement: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Atlanta -4 and the number jumped as high as 5½ but settled back down to the opener. The total was sent out at 58½ and moved up quickly before finally settling between 60 and 61. CRIS, a major offshore betting shop, opened Atlanta -5 with a total of 60 1/2. As of late Sunday, they’re holding the Falcons -4 (-115) with a total of 60.

Green Bay Road Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS
Atlanta Home Record: 6-3 SU, 6-4 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams met in Week 8 from Atlanta and the Falcons came away with a 33-32 decision but failed to cover as three-point home favorites. Green Bay led 24-19 at halftime and held a 32-26 lead late in the fourth quarter before Atlanta answered with a 75-yard game-winning touchdown drive that ended with an 11-yard passing score from quarterback Matt Ryan. There were no turnovers in the game that saw seven passing touchdowns, three from Ryan and four from Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.

Despite losing the first regular season meeting, Rodgers has gone 4-2 in his career versus the Falcons and that includes a 48-21 victory in the 2010 playoffs at Atlanta when he completed 31-of-36 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns. Ryan is 3-3 in his career against Green Bay, one of the wins coming against a Packers team that didn’t have Rodgers in the lineup.

Playoff Notes: Including last week’s 34-31 win over Dallas, the Packers are now 10-6 in the playoffs with Rodgers at QB. He’s gone 6-4 in games away from home in the postseason and three of the losses came in overtime. Atlanta improved to 2-4 in the postseason with Ryan under center after the team defeated Seattle 36-20 last Saturday in the Divisional Playoff round. While the quarterback has taken some heat in his career, the four playoff losses came against opponents that went onto the Super Bowl and two of them captured the title with one of them being Green Bay in the 2010 edition.

Total Notes: According to VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence and his archives, the highest NFL postseason total came in 2012 when New Orleans defeated Detroit 45-28 and the game went 'over' (59.5). While this will likely go down as the highest postseason total you’ll ever see, it’s deserving of the number and it’s hard to argue for the ‘under’ in this spot. Atlanta has watched the ‘over’ go 9-0 at the Georgia Dome this season behind the league’s top scoring offense at 33.9 points per game. Green Bay has watched the ‘over’ go 7-2 on the road and it enters this game on a 6-0 run to the high side behind an offense averaging 34.8 PPG in its last six.

The Falcons have seen the 'over' go 5-1 in six playoff games with Ryan at quarterback, which includes a 4-0 mark in Atlanta. The offense averaged 28.5 PPG in those games. Green Bay has seen the 'over' go 7-3 in 10 road playoff games with Rodgers at QB and the club has never been held under 20 points during this span.

NFC Championship Notes: The favorite has gone 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in the last four NFC title games. Green Bay is 1-1 in its last two trips to the title game, losing in 2014 at Seattle and defeating Chicago in the 2010 playoffs. The Falcons made a trip to the 2012 NFC Championship and dropped a 28-24 decision to San Francisco from the Georgia Dome. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four NFC title games.

AFC Championship Notes
VegasInsider.com

Pittsburgh (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) at New England (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS)

Line Movement: The MGM Mirage Sportsbook opened New England at 5 1/2 with a total sent out at 50 1/2. Sportsbook,ag, a major offshore betting shop, opened New England -6 with a total of 50 1/2. As of late Sunday, they’re holding the Patriots -6 (-110) with a total of 50 1/2, with the Steelers +215 on the moneyline.

Pittsburgh Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
New England Home Record: 7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Steelers host the Patriots back in Week 7, but it's difficult to glean much from that result. The Patriots picked up a 27-16 victory, but they also had the luxury of facing the Steelers without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger, as he missed that game due to a knee injury. In addition, Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski starred in that game with 93 yards and a touchdown, but he is done for the season.

As far as the guys who did play, Patriots QB Tom Brady threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns, RB Le'Veon Bell totalted 149 yards from scrimmage on 31 total touches and WR Antonio Brown posted a game-high 106 yards. The game featured two lost fumbles by the Patriots, and New England was able to pick off backup QB Landry Jones once. There were also zero sacks by both sides.

The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the past 14 meetings between these teams, with the Steelers going 4-11 ATS in the past 15 in the series.

These teams will meet in the AFC Championship Game for the third time, and the first time since 2004. It's also the first meeting at Gillette Stadium between the two combatants in a title game. New England won both the 2001 and 2004 AFC Championship Games against Pittsburgh, and they're 3-1 in four all-time postseason meetings against the Steelers.

Brady owns a 9-2 career record against the Steelers, and he has thrown for 3,148 yards, 26 touchdowns and just three interceptions, and his passer rating against the Steelers is higher than against any other opponent (min. five starts). Over his past six starts against Pittsburgh he has a passer rating in excess of 100, and the last time the Steelers picked him off in a game came way back in 2005. Brady also owns a 5-1 record against head coach Mike Tomlin, posting 19 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in those six outings. One of the reasons for Brady's success has been tremendous pass protection, as the Steelers have just eight sacks in their past six meetings.

Playoff Notes: The Steelers stomped the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card on Jan. 8 by a 30-12 score, covering an 11-point number at home. They also posted an 18-16 road victory against the Kansas City Chiefs, as PK Chris Boswell set an NFL postseason record with six field goals. The 'under' has connected in each of their two playoff games so far. Roethlisberger is 0-1 in his career against the Patriots in the playoffs, but he owns a 13-6 record as a starter in the postseason, including 5-2 on the road. The Steelers haven't been terribly success in recent seasons, however, going just 3-4 SU in their past seven playoff outings. Pittsburgh is also averaging just 19.8 PPG over their past five playoff games while yielding 22.4 PPG over their past seven postseason appearances.

The Steelers are 2-0-2 ATS in their past four playoff games, but just 1-3-2 ATS in their past six on the road in the postseason. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their past five playoff games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five postseason games at Gillette Stadium, but they're 1-6 ATS in their past seven in the AFC Championship Game.

Total Notes: The 'under' was 5-2 in the final seven regular season games for the Patriots, and 4-4 in eight regular season home games. However, the 'over' hit in their 34-16 Divisional Round win over the Texans, as they covered a 16-point number. The 'over' is 6-1 in New England's past seven home games, with an 'under' result last taking place Jan. 20, 2013 against Baltimore. It has been since Jan. 20, 2008, when the 'under' cashed in a New England home playoff game against an opponent other than the Ravens.

The 'under' is 7-1 in Pittsburgh's past eight games on the road including the postseason and regular season. The 'under' is also 4-0-1 in Pittsburgh's past five playoff appearances, including 3-0 in their past three on the road.

AFC Championship Notes: The favorite is 5-3 ATS over the past eight AFC title games, although the underdog is 3-2 ATS over the past five. The 'under' has hit in five in a row to follow up a 6-1 run of 'over' results. New England is just 1-2 SU/ATS in its past three AFC Championship Games at home, and 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS over the past five title game appearances overall. Pittsburgh returns to the game for the first time since 2011 when they topped the N.Y. Jets, also cashing as favorites. Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU/ATS in its past three trips to the AFC title game.

GREEN BAY (12 - 6) at ATLANTA (12 - 5) - 1/22/2017, 3:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 94-65 ATS (+22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 71-41 ATS (+25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
ATLANTA is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

PITTSBURGH (13 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (15 - 2) - 1/22/2017, 6:40 PM

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 114-81 ATS (+24.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 80-53 ATS (+21.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

GREEN BAY vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 12 games when playing Atlanta
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Green Bay

PITTSBURGH vs. NEW ENGLAND
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

Green Bay at Atlanta
Green Bay: 12-2 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less
Atlanta: 10-0 OVER as a favorite

Pittsburgh at New England
Pittsburgh: 6-0 UNDER in road games off a road win
New England: 12-3 ATS in home lined games

Total Talk - Championships
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Divisional Playoffs Recap

The ‘over’ went 3-1 last weekend and all of the results were clear-cut. Bettors playing halves watched the first-half go 3-1 to the ‘over’ as well while the second-halves ended in a stalemate (2-2). Through eight games, the ‘over’ stands at 5-3 in the playoffs.

Championship Game History

The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight AFC title games and is 6-4 over the last 10 years. New England will be playing in its six straight championship game and even though the club is known for offense, the unit has only averaged 23 points per game in their last five trips. Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 2-0 in its last two trips to the AFC title game but both of those totals closed in the thirties.

The NFC Championship has watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 the last 10 years both Green Bay (2-1) and Atlanta (1-0) have helped contribute to that mark.

NFC Championship – Green Bay at Atlanta

After this game was set last Sunday, oddsmakers sent out a total of 58½ and that number didn’t last long. It was quickly pushed up to 61 and most books are holding 60 to 61 as of Thursday.

In the 2011 playoffs, New Orleans earned a 45-28 home win over Detroit in the Wild Card round and the total (59½) on that game was the highest ever for a playoff matchup. For those keeping records, the highest total for any NFL game occurred in the 2000 regular season when the Rams and 49ers had a number of 62½ and that game went ‘under’ as St. Louis captured a 34-24 win in the Bay Area.

I’m not sure if Sunday’s number will reach 62 or 63 but I certainly don’t see a ton of wagers leaning to the low side, especially when you look at the form for both clubs.

Atlanta owns the best scoring offense (33.9 PPG) in the league and Green Bay is averaging 32.2 PPG during its current eight-game winning streak.

Those numbers have helped the Falcons produced the best ‘over’ mark (14-2-1) this season and that includes a perfect 9-0 mark at the Georgia Dome. Green Bay has also been a great ‘over’ bet (12-6) and it’s riding a six-game run to the high side headed into this game.

These teams met in Week 8 and Atlanta earned a 33-32 decision at home and the ‘over’ (51) was never in doubt as Green Bay led 24-19 at halftime. The game had 11 scores, eight of them being touchdowns and there were no turnovers in a game that saw both quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers (246 yards, 4 TDs) and Matt Ryan (288 yards, 3 TDs) dice up the defensive units.

Even though the teams combined for 65 in the first go ‘round, the pace wasn’t exactly fast and each team only had nine possessions. Green Bay ran 60 offensive plays while Atlanta’s unit offensive only managed 56 snaps.

Another factor contributing to Atlanta’s great ‘over’ record is its defense, which allowed 25.1 PPG this season. However, the unit trimmed that number to 21.9 PPG in the second-half of the season and they did hold Seattle to 20 points last Saturday.

Including last week’s win over Seattle in the Divisional Playoffs, the Falcons have now seen the ‘over’ go 5-1 in six postseason games with Ryan under center behind an offense averaging 28.5 PPG.

The Packers posted 34 points at Dallas last Sunday and the club has now seen the 'over' go 7-3 in 10 road playoff games with Rodgers at QB. These teams met in the 2010 playoffs from the Georgia Dome and Rodgers was near perfect (31-of-36, 366 yards, 3 TDs) as the Packers earned a 48-21 road win.

Fearless Prediction: Everybody is expecting a shootout in this matchup and while it’s hard to argue for the ‘under’ in this game, it’s the smarter play because the line has been inflated 10 points since they met earlier in the season. I could see one team getting into the thirties but not both and I would lean to the Green Bay Team Total ‘under’ (28) and the Atlanta Team Total ‘under’ (32½).

AFC Championship – Pittsburgh at New England

Unlike the NFC title game, this total hasn’t had as much movement and has stayed closer to the opener of 51½ but the early money has come in on the ‘under.’ As of Thursday, most books were holding steady at 50, 50½ and 51.

It’s a tough total to handicap because the Patriots (10-7) and Steelers (12-6) have both produced solid ‘under’ wagers this season yet the oddsmakers know that Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard.

The Patriots dropped the Texans 34-16 last Saturday in the Divisional Playoffs and the ‘over’ connected (44½) despite Brady only completely 47 percent of his passes. Truth be told, Brady hasn’t looked sharp in his last two playoff games but he was also facing top-ranked units in Houston and Denver in last year’s conference championship.

Expecting Brady to rebound on Sunday isn’t a stretch, especially when you look at his career numbers against Pittsburgh. The Patriots have gone 9-2 versus the Steelers with Brady under center and he’s tossed 26 touchdowns and only three interceptions while completing 69 percent of his passes.

In this year’s meeting between the pair in Week 7, Brady was sharp (19-of-26, 222 yards, 2 TDs) and the Patriots defeated the Steelers 27-16 on the road. Landry Jones played for an injured Roethlisberger and he wasn’t that bad in the loss, tossing for 281 yards and a score. The game went ‘under’ (49 ½) and three of the last four in this series have gone to the low side.

Pittsburgh’s 18-16 win over Kansas City last Sunday saw the ‘under’ (45½) connect as the Steelers settled for six field goals. Including that result, Pittsburgh has seen the ‘under’ go 7-2 in nine games away from Heinz Field this season.

Defensively, New England (15.6 PPG) is ranked first in scoring and Pittsburgh (19.7 PPG) isn’t far behind with the eighth ranked unit. While those numbers are impressive, you can argue that neither unit has been tested against many top-tier quarterback this season.

Including Brady, the Steelers only faced two other signal callers ranked in the Top 10 in quarterback rating - Kirk Cousins in Week 1 and Dak Prescott in Week 10. The Steelers went 1-2 in those games while allowing 26 PPG. Meanwhile when it comes to QBR, the best gunslinger that New England faced this season was Ryan Tannehill, who was ranked 12th. The Patriots beat the Dolphins in Week 2 but Tannehill finished 32-of-45 for 387 yards with a pair of touchdowns and interceptions. After him, Seattle’s Russell Wilson (14th) was the next stiffest test for the Patriots this season and he diced up the unit (25-of-27, 348 yards, 3 TDs) for a 31-24 Seahawks road win in Week 10.

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin watched the ‘over’ go 8-0-1 in his first nine playoff games but the ‘under’ has cashed in his last four postseason games. While New England has had a knack of putting up points in the Divisional round, the same can’t be said for championship round. As mentioned above, the Patriots are averaging 23 PPG in their last five trips to the AFC title game and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-0 during this span.

Fearless Prediction: Even though Pittsburgh has scored 18, 16 and 18 points in its last three playoff road games, I believe the Steelers will score in this spot against a New England defense that hasn’t been tested. With that being said, I’ll play the Pittsburgh Team Total ‘over’ (22½).

NFL Conference championship Games

Packers (12-6) @ Falcons (12-5) — Green Bay won its last eight games; they were underdogs in three of the eight games. Packers are 2-2 on artificial turf this season- all four of those games were in domes. Only way #2 seeds play conference final at home is if #1 seed loses its first playoff game; since 1997, #2 seeds playing conference final at home are 2-7, 0-3 in NFC (Steelers got both wins). Green Bay lost 33-32 at Atlanta back in Week 8, during midst of Packers’ defensive funk; TY was 367-331 Falcons in game Green Bay led 24-19 at half- it was Falcons’ first win in last five games vs Packers, who won playoff game 48-21 here in 2010. Atlanta won its last five games, scoring 38.4 pts/game. Last six Packer games went over total- over is 14-2-1 in Atlanta games this season.

Steelers (13-5) @ Patriots (15-2) — Since 2004, #1 seeds are 5-0 in conference title games (4-1 vs spread) when facing a #3 or worse seed, who didn’t get first round bye. Home team won AFC title game nine of last ten years; Patriots are 2-3 in this game last five years- they’re 4-1 in AFC title games at home under Belichick. Steelers won their last nine games; they’re 1-1 as an underdog this year. Patriots are 7-2 at home, 7-2 as a home favorite; they’re 12-1 with Brady at QB, with only loss to the Seahawks. New England won last three series games, by 24-7-11 points; they beat Steelers 27-16 in Week 7, in game Roethlisberger sat out, making it mostly irrelevant. Pitt lost four of last five visits here, with last win in ’08. Under is 10-4 in last 14 Steeler games, 5-3 in Patriots’ last eight games.

Armadillosports.com

NFL: Streaks, Tips, Notes
Sportspic.com

Green Bay at Atlanta

Offense has ruled the NFL playoffs thus far, and the league’s top two offenses will clash this Sunday (3:05 p.m. ET, FOX) when the Green Bay Packers visit the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta opened as a 4-point favorite and drew enough early action to move the juice from –105 to –115 at press time.

When these same two teams met in Week 8, it was the Falcons (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS) winning 33-32 on a last-minute touchdown pass from Matt Ryan to Mohamed Sanu. Green Bay (12-6 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) still cashed in as a 3-point road dog. That was the start of a four-game losing streak for the Packers, but they’ve won all eight of their games since at 7-1 ATS. Atlanta has won five in a row at 4-1 ATS.

Ryan is the heavy favorite to win this year’s MVP award at –1000, but Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is second at +500, and Green Bay’s offense has driven the OVER to the pay window in each of the last six games. The OVER is also 14-2-1 for the Falcons this year, including 6-0-1 since their Week 11 bye. Expect a gigantic total for Sunday’s Conference Championships.

Pittsburgh at New England

The Pittsburgh Steelers have captured the attention of bettors with nine straight wins at 7-1-1 ATS. But they’ll face their toughest challenge of the season this Sunday (6:40 PM ET, CBS) when they visit the New England Patriots in the Conference Championships. The Patriots are 6-point favorites at press time with a total of 51.

New England (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS) is also on a tear, winning eight in a row at 7-1 ATS and covering some big spreads along the way – none bigger than the 17 points they were laying in last week’s 34-16 Divisional Round victory over the Houston Texans. The Patriots escaped that game mostly intact; WR Malcolm Mitchell remains iffy for this week after sitting against Houston with a knee injury.

The Steelers (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) didn’t have any new names on their injury list after squeaking past the Kansas City Chiefs 18-16 last week as 1-point road dogs. But their chances for Sunday will improve if TE Ladarius Green makes it out of concussion protocol in time to face New England. The weather forecast calls for overcast skies over Foxborough at kick-off with temperatures in the low 40s.

Vegas Moves - Championships
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

The average Joe is having their best NFL playoffs which in turn has made the last two weeks the roughest playoffs Las Vegas sports books have ever seen. It's been an incredible run, and those bettors have made it well-known what their collectively strategy is for Sunday's conference championship games.

"We're split overall on the Packers-Falcons game," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal, "but if the Packers win paying off on the money-line (+175), parlayed to the Over (61) and then tied to the Patriots covering (-6), it's going to be an ugly day."

That's the doomsday three-team parlay paying out +902 that the books simply can't make up through straight bet wagers on the other sides.

"It's been all Packers money-line with the fans (public) while the sharps have been on the Falcons," Simbal said. "Were 5.5-to-1 on ticket counts with the Packers money-line."

CG Tech's nine books in Las Vegas have theFalcons as 5.5-point home favorites over thePackers, which along with the Westgate SuperBook is the highest number offered in Las Vegas as of Friday afternoon. Most books are at -5 with the South Point offering the only -4.5.

William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada have seen 91 percent of their GB/ATL money-line tickets written on the Packers money-line (+175) as well as 78 percent of the actual cash.

Wynn Resort sports books director John Avello says he's "seeing some good size wagers on the Packers money-line". When Avello says "good size wagers" at a place that houses several whales who get any amount they want, I immediately think six-figures.

Who needs the points with the Packers anyway, right? Although, it was the Packers who needed +3 to cash in the Week 8 meeting at Atlanta when the Falcons won 33-32, the Packers to win outright has been the popular bet throughout town.

It's hard not to buy in to the reasoning and believe in quarterback Aaron Rodgers after saying his team would "run the table" when the Packers were 4-6 and playoff hopes were looking dim. True to his word, Green Bay has won eight straight (7-1 ATS) and made Joe Public a believer.

Perhaps the most intriguing part of the Packers-Falcons game is the monstrous record setting total sitting as high as 61.5 at Boyd Gaming and Station Casinos chain of local casinos. Most books, like CG Technology, are firm at 61.

"We had sharp action take 'over' 59.5 and also 'under' 61.5. When we've been at 60 or 61 we've had good two-way action. The fans are betting Over."

The last two meetings between MVP candidates Matt Ryan and Rodgers have totaled a whopping 145 points.

"If Atlanta could win by 3, that would be super," said Simbal regarding his best scenario. "It would also help us out in futures because we do the best with them in NFC and Super Bowl."

Sunday's late game features two more elite quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, with thePatriots as consensus six-point home favorites over theSteelers and the public has made it clear who they support here with a number driven up from an opener of -4.5.

"They're betting New England and they can't stop betting New England," said Simbal. "We're at -6 and have over two times the cash on the Patriots. We've also taken a huge Patriots money-line bet (at -230). All the fans are betting the Steelers money-line (+220), but we still need them to win."

The Steelers come into this game on a nine-game win streak (7-1-1 ATS), but the Patriots have won eight straight (7-1 ATS). The most incredible thing about what New England has done this season is go 14-3 ATS when most of the spreads -- when Tom Brady returned in Week 5 -- were inflated by 25 percent of what the true rating suggested.

The Patriots won a Week 7 meeting at Pittsburgh, 27-16, as 7.5-point road favorites in a game that Roethlisberger missed. They last met in the playoffs during Big Ben's rookie season when the Steelers were seeded No. 1 and the Patriots (-3) won 41-27 earning a trip to the Super Bowl.

William Hill books have taken 88 percent of their cash on the game laying the points with the Patriots. The total in the game hasn't been as popular as the NFC game holding steady at 51 with a few books showing 50.5.

Championship Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

History demands that Super Bowl winning teams ascribe to a major element that most others in the league do not – namely a Top 10-ranked defense. Given the fact that 41 of the 50 Super Bowl winners owned Top 10 overall ranked defenses, it appears this year’s race to the Super Bowl is a one horse race considering three of the four of the teams appearing in Sunday’s NFL Championship currently rank outside the Top 10 in overall total team defense.

Only the New England Patriots, who finished the regular season with the league’s 8th best defensive unit, make this year’s list.

Let’s see how all four teams stack up heading into this week’s Championship playoff round, and take a look at what’s worked and what hasn’t in conference Championship Games in the past.

SURPRISE, SUPRISE

Don’t be alarmed should a surprise or two happen not only in this year’s Championship Round but also in the Super Bowl 51 matchup as well.

According to our database, underdogs have managed to pull off upsets 16 times in 52 title games since the 1990 season, including the Denver Broncos over the New England Patriots last year.

In fact, the last three times a team has pulled a surprise in the Championship game they have gone on to capture the Super Bowl as well. The most recent being the aforementioned Broncos along with the Baltimore Ravens in 2013, and the New York Giants in 2012.

FYI: A total of 10 of the 16 Championship Game upset winners went on to capture the Super Bowl crown.

WE’RE BACK

The age-old adage “practice makes perfect” rings especially true for home teams in playoffs that were defeated in the Championship round the previous year.

That’s confirmed by the fact that these close-but-no-cigar squads are a jaw dropping 38-4 straight up and 30-11-1 against the spread as playoff hosts the following season since the 1981 season. And when these same teams find themselves favored by more than 4 points in title games they zoom to 34-1 SU and 26-8 ATS.

The Pittsburgh Steelers may be itching for a payback from the 27-16 loss they suffered at home – sans QB Ben Roethlisberger - against the Patriots on October 23 earlier this season. But that itching may be a bad case of poison ivy for Big Ben’s bunch this Sunday as the saying ‘be careful what you wish for’ may come back to haunt them.

BEEN THERE, DONE THAT

Three of the four head coaches playing this weekend own the luxury of having previously mentored teams in NFL Championship games – namely Green Bay Packers coach Mike McCarthy, New England’s Bill Belichick, and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin.

McCarthy stands 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in title games, while Belichick brings a 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS slate in championship affairs into this week’s clash against the Steelers, including a paltry 1-6 ATS mark in the last seven games. Pittsburgh’s Tomlin sports a perfect 2-0 both SU and ATS mark in AFC championship tilts, while Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn leads his troops to his first appearance in a title game.

GRAVITY ALERT

While high-scoring games are the norm in the NFL these days, teams arriving to the championship round off a high-scoring effort in their last game tend to crash back to earth in a hurry.

Consider: Only 18 teams of the 34 teams who scored 36 or more points in a divisional round victory have gone on to advance to the Super Bowl since 1981. Those same teams are just 10-23-1 ATS in Championship games, including 5-17-1 ATS since 1992. And only four of those teams managed to top 30 points in these games.

That would look to put the Falcons on hard ground this Sunday.

DUELING ARMS

Sunday will mark the ninth time in which New England QB Tom Brady will oppose Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger in their NFL careers. The Pats have bested the Steelers six times in those games, while going 5-2-1 ATS, including 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in Foxborough.

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers has squared off six times against Atlanta’s Matt Ryan, going 3-3 both SU and ATS. The visiting team is 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS those games

TWO-MINUTE HANDICAP

All playoff trends date to 1980, unless otherwise noted:

Green Bay at Atlanta:

Packers – 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS as visitors in the playoffs since 2011; 7-14 ATS versus NFC South opponents under McCarthy.

Falcons – 2-4 SU and 0-5-1 ATS at home against NFC North foes since 2011; favorites are 10-23 in Atlanta’s games behind Dan Quinn.

Pittsburgh at New England:

Steelers – 7-1-1 ATS last nine games as away underdog in the playoffs; 2-5 SU and 2-4-1 ATS last seven visits to New England including 0-3 SU/ATS when Pats own .666 or greater record.

Patriots – 13th AFC title game since 1970 (16th for Pittsburgh in the same span); QB Brady is 15-3 SU at home in the playoffs, including 8-0 SU against .722 or better opponents.

STAT OF THE WEEK

NFL home favorites are 20-36-6 ATS after facing Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks, including 1-7 ATS from Game 14 out. (Atlanta)

NFC Conference Championship Betting Preview: Packers at Falcons
By Covers.com

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 60.5)

Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan are enjoying the rides of their lives, although one quarterback's impressive run will come to an unceremonious end at the other's expense. Rodgers has made good on his confident promise to run the table - and then some - as he powers the Green Bay Packers into Sunday's NFC Championship Game against the host Atlanta Falcons.

"I think he's played incredible," Packers coach Mike McCarthy told reporters of Rodgers, who has posted a 117.9 passer rating with 21 touchdowns and one interception during his eight-game winning streak. "Is he playing the best he ever has? He's played at this level so often, but I think this is probably one of his best runs." The 31-year-old Ryan (franchise-record 4,944 yards) hasn't been too shabby in his own right, throwing 14 scoring passes without an interception during Atlanta's five-game winning streak while his 117.1 passer rating this season was tops in the league and his 38 TDs trailed only Rodgers (40). Ryan's Falcons got the better of Rodgers' Packers in the first meeting of the season on Oct. 30, with Mohamed Sanu reeling in the quarterback's third touchdown pass with 31 seconds remaining in a 33-32 victory.

POWER RANKINGS: Packers (-4) - Falcons (-4.5) + home field (-3) = Falcons -3.5

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 4.5-home favorites and quickly dropped to 4 before returning to the original number and by mid-week was bet up to 5, where that number has held. The total hit the board at 61 and faded a full point to 60 Monday. View the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "This is currently the second highest total in NFL history and the highest total ever for a NFL playoff game. When these teams played earlier this season, the line was nearly ten points lower (O/U 51) and it easily soared Over that total with 65 combined points, including 43 points in the first half. Both teams played a very clean game with no turnovers." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “Somewhat of a roller coaster ride of action for this matchup. We opened Atlanta -6 and within the first half hour had taken so many sharp bets on Green Bay that we dropped it to -4. It sat there for a day or so and then began creeping back up. We're back to the opener because during the last 48 hours we've seen an abundance of smart money on the Falcons, much like we did last week when they played Seattle. Spread handle is pretty even, but regarding the total, we have a ton of liability on the over.” - Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu.

INJURY REPORT:

Green Bay - WR Geronimo Allison (probable, hamstring), K Mason Crosby (probable, illness), WR Jeff Janis (probable, quadricep), LB Clay Matthews (probable, shoulder), WR Davante Adams (questionable, ankle), G T.J. Lang (questionable, foot), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), RB James Starks (questionable, concussion), LB Jayrone Elliott (questionable, hand), CB Quinten Rollins (questionable, concussion), S Morgan Burnett (questionable, quadricep), WR Jordy Nelson (doubtful, ribs)

Atlanta - WR Taylor Gabriel (probable, foot), WR Julio Jones (probable, toe), DT Jonathan Babineaux (questionable, shoulder), S Keanu Neal (questionable, foot), De Adrian Clayborn (IR, bicep)

ABOUT THE PACKERS (12-6 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 12-6 O/U): While Rodgers has been blistering hot, the two-time NFL MVP will need some wide receivers to reel in his passes as Jordy Nelson (ribs), Davante Adams (ankle) and undrafted rookie Geronimo Allison (hamstring) all are nursing injures. Nelson (NFL-best 14 receiving touchdowns) sat out Sunday's 34-31 victory over Dallas and is dealing with a combination of pain tolerance and medical clearance in his decision to play versus Atlanta. While Adams (career-best 76 catches, 997 yards and 12 TDs) won't practice before Sunday's pregame workout, Randall Cobb has gotten healthy with five touchdowns in his last five playoff games. "In the regular-season ... mindset, none of them would play," McCarthy said Thursday. "But obviously, this is a different time. This is a different point where we are in the season. Everybody understands where we are here."

ABOUT THE FALCONS (12-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 14-2-1 O/U): All-Pro wideout Julio Jones insists he expects to play in the NFC title game despite sitting out his second straight practice on Thursday. "I got a little snag," said Jones (NFL second-best 1,409 receiving yards), referring to aggravating a toe injury in Saturday's 36-20 victory over Seattle that has plagued him since Week 13. "And I was like, 'Well, let's go check it out.' It's fine. I'll be ready to go." Sanu had nine receptions for 84 yards to go along with his touchdown in the earlier contest versus the Packers while fellow wideout Taylor Gabriel also found the end zone in that tilt and has five TDs in his last seven games overall.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.
* Packers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
* Over is 6-0 in Packers last 6 games overall.
* Over is 9-0 in Falcons last 9 home games.
* Over is 11-0 in Falcons last 11 games on fieldturf.
* Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road underdog Green Bay Packers are picking up 65 percent of the point spread action and Over is grabbing 61 percent of the totals wagers.

AFC Conference Championship Betting Preview: Steelers at Patriots
By Covers.com

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6, 50.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots are in familiar territory as they prepare to clash in Sunday night's AFC Championship Game at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Both franchises are used to playing with the stakes so high -- the winner of the matchup will establish an NFL record by becoming the first team to advance to the Super Bowl for the ninth time.

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has a pair of Super Bowl rings but knows the challenge presented by the Patriots, who beat Pittsburgh in the AFC title game after both the 2001 and 2004 regular seasons on their way to championships. "You are going up to the lion's den, the dragon's lair," Roethlisberger told reporters. "They are the dragon. We are trying to slay them. It doesn't matter who it is, but they are the gold standard." New England, the first team since the 1970 merger to advance to six consecutive conference championship games, won at Pittsburgh 27-16 in Week 7 - a game Roethlisberger missed due to injury. "I think the game earlier in the season is not really that relevant," said Patriots coach Bill Belichick, instead pointing to the Steelers' nine-game winning streak. "What the Steelers have done in the last 2 1/2 months is really what we're probably going to see Sunday night, and that's what we've got to be ready for."

POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-5) - Patriots (-7) + home field (-3) = Patriots -5

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 5.5-point home favorites and that line was bet up to 6 within the first hour and briefly faded back to the opening number before returning to 6. The total hit the board at 51 and was bet up to 51.5 before fading to 50.5 by the end of the week. View the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The AFC title game features the Killer B’s at their best - Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, Big Ben, Antonio Brown, LeVeon Bell… and Chris Boswell. Pats will rely on the fact that home teams in the playoffs that lost in a conference championship game the previous year are 38-4 SU and 30-11-1 ATS. The Steeler will bank on a 7-1-1 ATS mark as playoff road dogs, and a perfect 2-0 SUATS record in title game under Mike Tomlin. All killer stats, to say the least." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Patriots as 6 point favourites at home to the Steelers and took enough action on the Steelers to adjust the juice on the Patriots -6 (from -115 to even). we did eventually dip down to Patriots -5.5 with some sharp action coming in on the Steelers. We have since moved bak up to our opening number of Patriots -6(-110) with just over 55% of the action coming in on the Patriots." - Michael Stewart at CarbonSports.ag

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a typical January night for football at Gillete Stadium on Sunday night. Conditions are expected to be overcast with temperatures in the high-30’s at kick off and north northeast winds at 5-10 mph.

INJURY REPORT:

Pittsburgh - LB Vince Williams (probable, shoulder), LB James Harrison (probable, shoulder), K Chris Boswell (questionable, illness), S Sean Davis (questionable, shoulder), C B.J. Finney (questionable, illness), WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (questionable, illness), QB Zach Mettenberger (questionable, illness), DE Ricardo Mathews (questionable, ankle), LB Anthony Chickillo (questionable, ankle), RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (questionable, concussion), TE Ladarius Green (doubtful, concussion)

New England - DL Jabaal Sheard (probable, knee), WR Danny Amendola (probable, ankle), TE Martellus Bennett (probable, knee), WR Chris Hogan (probable, thigh), RB Brandon Bolden (questionable, knee), LB Dont’a Hightower (questionable, knee), QB Jacoby Brissett (questionable, thumb), CB Cyrus Jones (questionable, knee), WR Malcolm Mitchell (questionable, knee)

ABOUT THE STEELERS (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS, 6-12 O/U): Roethlisberger has one of the league's top receivers at his disposal, but Pittsburgh is centering its offense around running back Le'Veon Bell, who has set franchise playoff records in back-to-back games by rushing for 167 yards against Miami and 170 at Kansas City. Bell has rushed for at least 118 yards in seven of his last eight contests but was limited to 81 on 21 carries by New England while making 10 catches for 68 yards. Antonio Brown has racked up 481 receptions over the last four seasons, including seven for 106 yards in Week7, while going over 100 yards in both postseason wins. The defense has shown the most improvement for the Steelers, who have permitted an average of 16.6 points and registered 31 sacks during their winning streak.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS, 7-10 O/U): After throwing for 28 touchdowns against only two interceptions, Tom Brady matched the latter total by getting picked off twice during a pedestrian performance in last week's 34-16 victory over Houston. Brady, though, routinely has carved up Pittsburgh's defense, throwing for 19 touchdowns and zero interceptions in the last six matchups, and for his career has 26 scoring passes versus three picks while posting a 9-2 record against the Steelers. Running back LeGarrette Blount rushed for 127 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the Week 7 meeting, but Dion Lewis did the bulk of the damage against Houston with three TDs - including one on a 98-yard kickoff return. The Patriots' defense led the league by surrendering 15.6 points during the regular season.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
* Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Conference Championships games.
* Over is 6-0 in Steelers last 6 Conference Championships games.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 Conference Championships games.

CONSENSUS: The road underdog Pittsburgh Steelers are getting 55 percent of the action from Covers users and the over is picking up 52 percent of the totals wagers.

Packers at Falcons
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

How They Got Here

Atlanta (12-5 straight up, 11-6 against the spread) advanced to the NFC Championship Game by drilling Seattle 36-20 last Saturday as a six-point home favorite. The 56 combined points went ‘over’ the 51-point total thanks to a pair of touchdown passes in the final four minutes. Just 19 seconds after Matt Ryan’s three-yard TD pass to Mohamed Sanu extended the Falcons’ lead to 36-13, Russell Wilson found Doug Baldwin for a 31-yard scoring strike to hook up ‘over’ supporters.

Ryan completed 26-of-37 passes for 338 yards and three TDs without an interception. Julio Jones had six receptions for 67 yards and one TD, while Tony Gabriel had four catches for 71 yards. Devonta Freeman rushed 14 times for 45 yards and one TD while also catching four balls for 80 yards. Tevin Coleman had 57 rushing yards on 11 attempts, in addition to three receptions for 22 yards and one TD.

Keanu Neal, the team’s first-round pick out of Florida, had a team-high eight tackles and one assists. Meanwhile, another rookie, second-round pick Deion Jones from LSU, had three tackles, two assists and one interception. Ricardo Allen also had an interception.

Green Bay (12-6 SU, 11-6 ATS) won its eighth consecutive game by going into Dallas and capturing a 34-31 win as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. The Packers, who improved to 7-1 ATS in their last eight contests, won on Mason Crosby’s walk-off 51-yard field goal as time expired. The game-winning boot was set up by one of the sickest passes you’ll ever see, as Aaron Rodgers found Jared Cook for a 36-yard connection. Rodgers had been sacked for a 10-yard loss on the previous play, leaving his team facing a 3rd-and-20 play with 12 seconds remaining. Rodgers rolled to his left and was moving toward the sidelines to avoid pressure before unleashing a dart to Cook, who expertly tapped his toes just inside the white line before falling out of bounds.

Crosby had booted a 56-yarder with 1:38 remaining to put Green Bay in front 31-28 after Dallas had scored 15 unanswered points. But the Cowboys responded by going 42 yards in five plays to set up Dan Bailey’s tying 52-yard field goal with 44 ticks left.

After Dallas kicked a field goal on its opening drive of the game, Green Bay scored 21 straight points thanks to a pair of Ty Montgomery TD runs. Trailing by 18 midway through the second quarter, the Cowboys countered with a four-play, 75-yard drive that was capped by Dak Prescott’s 40-yard TD pass to Dez Bryant. After forcing a quick three and out by Green Bay, Dallas mounted another nice drive that ended with a 33-yard field goal by Bailey to trim the deficit to one-possession (21-13) by intermission.

Green Bay took the opening drive of the third quarter and quickly went 75 yards to paydirt on just six plays. Rodgers connected on all six of his throws on the drive, including 25 and 26-yard completions to Randall Cobb and Cook, respectively. The veteran QB found Cook for a three-yard scoring strike to cap the drive.

Rodgers completed 28-of-43 throws for 355 yards and a pair of TDs, although he was intercepted for the first time since Nov. 13. Montgomery produced 47 rushing yards and two TDs on 11 carries while also catching six balls for 34 yards. Cook finished with six receptions for 103 yards and one TD, while Davante Adams had five grabs for 76 yards. Cobb had seven catches for 62 yards.

Micah Hyde led the defense with four tackles, one sack and a clutch interception that stifled a Dallas drive deep in Green Bay territory.

Rodgers is playing the best football of his life, throwing 36 TD passes compared to only four interceptions since Week 7. Making those numbers more impressive is the fact that he’s been without so many of his weapons for good chunks of the season. Starting RB Eddie Lacy went on injured reserve in early October, while veteran back-up RB James Starks remains ‘out’ since sustaining a concussion in early December. Those injuries prompted Montgomery’s move to RB after playing WR throughout his collegiate career at Stanford.

Cobb missed the last three games of the regular season, though he’s returned and played extremely well in the first two games of the postseason. WR Jordy Nelson, who had 97 receptions for 1,257 yards and 14 TDs during the regular season, suffered two broken ribs in the first half of Green Bay’s 38-13 home win over the Giants in the NFC quarterfinals on Jan. 8. Nelson didn’t play at Dallas and is considered ‘doubtful’ at Atlanta.

Adams, who had 75 catches for 997 yards and 12 TDs during the regular season, has 13 grabs for 201 yards and one TD in the first two games of the postseason. However, he sprained his ankle at Dallas and is ‘questionable’ to play against the Falcons. WR Geronimo Allison (hamstring) is also ‘questionable,’ along with starting safety Morgan Burnett and starting OG T.J. Lang.

As for Atlanta, it won’t have DE Adrian Clayborn (5 sacks) after he tore his bicep vs. Seattle. Also, WRs Jones and Gabriel have been limited at practice this week due to lingering foot injuries, but both will play.

Series History

Well, the obvious thing you think about with these two organizations is how Jerry Glanville opted to trade “Buckhead” Brett Favre to Green Bay for peanuts and a cold beer after Favre spent much of his rookie season partying in Atlanta and carrying a clipboard. We all know how that one worked out.

Since 2001, Green Bay has won six of 11 head-to-head meetings, but the Falcons are 7-4 ATS in those encounters. They’ve met three times in the playoffs with the Packers winning two of those contests. They routed an Atlanta team coached by June Jones with Jeff George as its QB by a 37-20 count in 1994.

Then in January of 2003, a young Michael Vick, who was in his second NFL season and his first as a starter and had other-worldly quickness and speed at the time, put on a scintillating performance to lead the Falcons to a 27-7 win. It was Green Bay’s first-ever postseason loss at Lambeau Field.

After going 13-3 to earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed in 2011, Atlanta hosted Green Bay in the NFC semifinals. With the game tied at 14-14, Rodgers found James Jones for a 20-yard scoring strike to put the Packers ahead 21-14 with 42 seconds left in the second quarter. The Falcons quickly moved the ball to Green Bay’s 26 with 14 seconds remaining. But then Ryan was sacked by Clay Matthews for a nine-yard loss and Atlanta was forced to call a timeout with 10 ticks left. Mike Smith opted to run one more play to get into better field-goal position, but Ryan was intercepted by Tramon Williams, who coasted to a 70-yard pick-six that was a backbreaker for Atlanta.

Green Bay rolled to a 48-21 win thanks to Rodgers, who was just downright nasty on that Saturday night at the Ga. Dome. He completed 31-of-36 passes for 366 yards and three TDs without an interception. Rodgers also had a seven-yard TD run. Meanwhile, Ryan went 20-for-29 for 186 yards with one TD and two interceptions.

These teams met on Oct. 30 with Atlanta winning a 33-32 thriller. However, Green Bay covered the number as a three-point road underdog. The 65 combined points soared ‘over’ the 51-point total. The game featured six lead changes, with the last coming after Ryan found Sanu for an 11-yard TD pass with 31 seconds remaining.

Ryan and Rodgers were both sensational. Rodgers completed 28-of-38 passes for 246 yards and four TDs without an interception. He also ran for 60 yards on just six attempts. Lacy, Starks and Montgomery were all out with injuries. Nelson had four receptions for 94 yards and one TD, while Adams had 12 catches for 74 yards.

Ryan connected on 28-of-35 throws for 288 yards and three TDs without a pick. Coleman was out with an injury and Freeman rushed for 35 yards and one TD on 11 carries. Sanu finished with nine catches for 84 yards and the game-winning TD grab. Gabriel had three receptions for 68 yards and one TD, while Jones was limited to three grabs for just 29 yards. Clayborn had a pair of sacks for Atlanta and Vic Beasley had one of his NFL-high 15.5 sacks for the year.

Playoff History

Atlanta is in the NFC Championship Game for just for the fourth time in the organization’s history. It has gone 1-2 in those games, winning in overtime at Minnesota in January of 1999. The Falcons lost 27-10 at Philadelphia in January of ’05 and allowed a 17-0 first-half lead to get away in a gut-wrenching 28-24 home loss to San Francisco four years ago. They’ve been to just one Super Bowl, getting smashed by John Elway and the Broncos in ’99.

Green Bay owns a 5-3 record in NFC Championship Games and is 34-21 in 55 overall playoff games. The Packers have won four Super Bowls, losing just one to Denver in 1998.

Line Movement

Shortly after Green Bay polished off Dallas, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Atlanta as a four-point favorite with an ‘over/under’ of 60. By Monday afternoon, the betting shop had adjusted the Falcons to 4.5-point ‘chalk’ with the total moved to 61. The tally briefly was bumped up to 61.5 but quickly moved back to 61, where it remained as of late Friday afternoon. Then on Saturday, the number was moved back to 61.5

On Tuesday morning, the Westgate moved Atlanta to five, only to go back to 4.5 that night. Then on Thursday, the Falcons were back to five. They went to 5.5 for a few hours on Friday, only to settle back at five by late Friday afternoon. With the chances of Nelson and/or Adams playing seemingly diminishing as of Saturday afternoon, the Westgate and many other shops had the Falcons up to six-point favorites.

As of Saturday afternoon, Atlanta was -200 to win outright (risk $200 to win $100), while the Packers were +175 on the money line (risk $100 to win $175). For first half wagers, most spots had the Falcons installed as three-point favorites (with a -120 price tag) with a total of 31.

Handicapper’s Corner

VI cohort Chris David had these thoughts on the Packers and Falcons: “After dropping its first two games at the Georgia Dome this season as home favorites to the Buccaneers and Chargers, the Falcons have stayed the course and finished with a 5-1 mark when laying ‘chalk’ at home. Despite the strong finish, bettors could still be hesitant to lay the points with Atlanta knowing that it’s 6-14 (30%) ATS in its last 20 spots as a home favorite. One of those non-covers came in its three-point win over Green Bay.

“If you’re hesitant to lay the points with Atlanta, the money-line could be the better play and you’re getting value with it in this spot. Most betting shops are holding the Falcons as minus-200 favorites (Bet $100 to win $50) on the money-line versus the Packers. Normally, a five-point favorite in the NFL should be priced -240 so you’re saving 40 cents on each wager because the majority of bettors are backing Green Bay to win instead of taking the points.”

Props

The ‘over/under’ for Rodgers’ completions is 27.5 (‘under’ -120, ‘over’ -110), while his passing yards are at 323.5 (-115 either way). Other totals for the veteran QB include TD passes (2.5; -150 to the ‘over,’ +120 for the ‘under), longest completion (41.5; -115 either way) and pass attempts (41.5; u-120, o-110).

The above numbers came from Sportsbook.ag, which has zero props for Adams or Nelson. Obviously, bettors would hammer the ‘under’ if those were available because the bets would be action if either player stepped on the field for just one play.

The offshore shop has the following totals for Ryan: completions (25.5; o-140, u+110), passing yards (326.5; -115 either way) and TD passes (2.5; o-150, u+120). I’m bullish on the prop for Ryan’s passing yards to go ‘over’ 326.5.

Future Odds

New England is the +140 ‘chalk’ to win Super Bowl LI, while Atlanta has the second-shortest odds at +260 (risk $100 to win $260). Green Bay is +400 and Pittsburgh is +425.

Various outlets, including Sportsbook.ag, have odds on who will garner Super Bowl LI MVP honors New England’s Tom Brady is the +175 ‘chalk,’ while Ryan has the second-shortest odds (+350). Ryan’s odds at this time last week were 12/1. Other Falcons on the board included Freeman (30/1), Jones (30/1), Coleman (50/1), Beasley (50/1), Bryant (100/1), Gabriel (200/1), Neal (250/1) and Sanu (250/1).

Green Bay players on the board include Rodgers (+390), Nelson (50/1), Montgomery (50/1), Clay Matthews (75/1), Adams (75/1), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (100/1), Cook (100/1), Cobb (100/1), Nick Perry (200/1), Peppers (500/1), Crosby (500/1), Hyde (500/1) and Ripkowski (1,000/1).

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Atlanta owns a 6-3 SU record and a 4-5 ATS mark at home this year.

Ryan owns a 2-4 record in six postseason games.

Green Bay has been an underdog five times this year, compiling a 4-1 spread record with three outright victories.

The ‘over’ has been a money-making machine in Atlanta games this season, cashing at a remarkable 14-2-1 overall clip. The ‘over’ is a perfect 9-0 for the Falcons in their home games.

The ‘over’ is 12-6 overall for the Packers, 7-2 in their road assignments.

Sportsbook.ag has spreads for all four potential Super Bowl LI matchups: New England -3.5 vs. Atlanta with a total of 55, New England -3 (+100) vs. Green Bay (+3 at -120 price) with a total of 54.5, Pittsburgh -1 vs. Atlanta (54) and Green Bay -1 vs. Pittsburgh (53.5).

Steelers at Patriots
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Patriots and Steelers haven’t met in the postseason since the 2004 AFC Championship as the two conference powers hook up for the AFC title in Foxboro on Sunday evening. New England is playing in its sixth consecutive AFC Championship, as the Patriots are looking for their seventh Super Bowl appearance in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. Pittsburgh is playing its best football of the season, but will need an even better effort to reach its first Super Bowl since 2010.

HOW THEY GOT HERE

New England (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS) captured its eighth consecutive AFC East title and 13th division championship in 15 seasons with a 14-2 regular season record. The Patriots survived Brady’s four-game “Deflategate” suspension to begin the season by winning three of the first four games with the combination of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett under center. Brady took over in Week 5 at Cleveland and torched the hapless Browns for 406 yards and three touchdown passes in a 33-13 rout.

The Patriots have won 12 of 13 games started by Brady this season with the only loss coming in a 31-24 home setback to Seattle in Week 10 as 7 ½-point favorites. Since that defeat to the Seahawks, New England has won eight consecutive games, while covering seven times, including in last week’s 34-16 triumph over Houston as 16 ½-point favorites in the divisional playoffs. Brady didn’t have his best game by completing 18-of-38 passes for 287 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, but New England intercepted Brock Osweiler three times in the win.

Pittsburgh (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) last lost in Week 10 to Dallas at home, as the Steelers have ripped off nine consecutive victories. Although one of those wins during a seven-game hot streak to close the regular season came against a playoff team (Giants), the Steelers have limited seven of nine opponents to 20 points or less during this stretch. Since starting the season with a 1-3 road record, Mike Tomlin’s club has won five consecutive contests away from Heinz Field, as the Steelers were listed as a road underdog only once this season.

Although the Steelers failed to reach the end zone last Sunday, Pittsburgh held off Kansas City, 18-16 to cash outright as 2½-point underdogs to advance to the AFC Championship. Kicker Chris Boswell booted six field goals, while running back Le’Veon Bell racked up a career-high 170 yards on the ground, one week after rushing for 167 yards against the Dolphins. Wide receiver Antonio Brown put together his second consecutive 100-yard performance by hauling in six receptions for 108 yards, including the game-clinching catch to put away the Chiefs in the final minutes.

SERIES HISTORY

The Patriots have owned the Steelers through the years, winning nine of 12 matchups since the 2001 playoffs. Brady has compiled an 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS record against Pittsburgh as one of three wins by the Steelers in this stretch came in 2008 when the New England star was out with a torn ACL.

These teams met at Heinz Field in Week 7 as New England pulled away from Pittsburgh, 27-16 as 7½-point favorites. Ben Roethlisberger missed the game with a left knee injury as backup Landry Jones stepped in and threw for 281 yards for Pittsburgh. Brady tossed a pair of touchdowns to James White and Rob Gronkowski, while running back LeGarrette Blount compiled 127 yards and two touchdowns for the Patriots.

New England has won four of the past five home meetings with Pittsburgh, including a 28-21 triumph to open up the 2015 season. The Patriots and Steelers are hooking up in the postseason for the fifth time ever as New England has captured three of the first four matchups, including a 41-27 rout of Pittsburgh in the 2004 AFC Championship.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

It seems like we see the Patriots in the AFC Championship every season (last miss was 2010), but New England has failed to win this game in three of the past four years. Last season, New England fell short at Denver in a 20-18 setback, but the Pats have won four of five home AFC Championships with Brady at quarterback. However, New England owns a dreadful 1-6 ATS mark in its last seven conference championships since 2006 with the only cover coming against Indianapolis in 2014.

The Steelers have qualified for the postseason seven times in Tomlin’s 10 seasons as head coach, while looking for the franchise’s first Super Bowl title since 2008 when Pittsburgh edged Arizona, 27-23. Pittsburgh is playing in its fifth AFC Championship game since 2004, while going on the road for the conference title game for the first time since 2005 when the Steelers dismantled the Broncos, 34-17 as three-point underdogs.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Patriots as 4½-point favorites with a total of 51½ once the Steelers advanced to the AFC Championship last Sunday night. New England has been pushed up to a six-point favorite along with a total of 51 and that number has stayed constant at many sports books. Sunday’s weather should hold up in Foxboro with temperatures in the low 40’s and a 20% chance of rain.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says New England will have its hands full with Pittsburgh’s defense, “Brady was hit often last week against the Texans as the offensive line didn’t hold up in many situations and Pittsburgh’s pass rush was formidable late in the season. The return of Bud Dupree mid-season has made a big impact and the playoff failures for New England all share the common theme of pressure up front created with the Giants, Ravens, and Broncos notably having the best success.”

On the defensive side for the Patriots, Nelson notes that they have stepped up their game in these situations, “New England allowed fewer than 16 points per game at home this season with only one team topping 24. In the past five AFC Championships, New England has given up just over 20 points per game with five straight wins for the ‘under’. The ‘under’ has now hit in 11 of the last 13 Pittsburgh road games going back to late last season with Pittsburgh yielding just over 15 points per game over the last six road games.”

PROPS

Pittsburgh

B. Roethlsiberger – Total Gross Passing Yards
284½ - OVER (-110)
284½ - UNDER (-110)

B. Roethlisberger – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (-160)
1½ - UNDER (+140)

L. Bell – Total Rushing Yards
103½ - OVER (-110)
103½ - UNDER (-110)

Will L. Bell score a touchdown?
YES (-150)
NO (+130)

A. Brown – Total Receiving Yards
95½ - OVER (-110)
95½ - UNDER (-110)

Will A. Brown score a touchdown?
YES (-130)
NO (+110)

New England

T. Brady – Total Gross Passing Yards
286½ - OVER (-110)
286½ - UNDER (-110)

T. Brady – Total Touchdown Passes
2½ - OVER (Even)
2½ - UNDER (-120)

Will T. Brady throw an interception?
YES (+130)
NO (-150)

Will L. Blount score a touchdown?
YES (-135)
NO (+115)

J. Edelman – Total Receiving Yards
80½ - OVER (-110)
80½ - UNDER (-110)