Close Calls - Week 3
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 3 of the NFL regular season.
Los Angeles Rams (-3) 41, San Francisco 49ers (40½): Those backing the favorite and ‘over’ to start Week 3 Thursday night had to feel good with a 24-13 edge for the Rams at halftime. Los Angeles had to settle for a very short field goal out of the break and that left an opportunity for the 49ers, getting within seven after completing a 10-play touchdown drive. Late in the third quarter the Rams answered on 3rd-and-goal from the 1-yard line with a touchdown pass to prevent another short kick and the teams traded touchdowns again early in the fourth quarter as Los Angeles was ‘over’ the total by itself with a 41-26 edge.
Getting the ball back with six minutes to go Brian Hoyer led a four-play touchdown drive for an offense that hadn’t scored a touchdown in the first two weeks and Pharoh Cooper fumbled on the kickoff return as the 49ers got the ball back in great field position. Just ahead of the two-minute warning the 49ers were back in the end zone and lined up for a game-tying two-point-conversion. That attempt failed but the 49ers got the on-side kick for another chance before ultimately going backwards with a critical offensive pass interference call. The Rams escaped with the win to reach 2-1 but fell short of the slight road favorite spread that looked fairly safe most of the way.
New Orleans Saints (+5½) 34, Carolina Panthers 13 (46½): The 0-2 Saints traveled to Carolina this past weekend to face the NFC South leading Panthers who had matched the Falcons at 2-0 in the first two weeks. New Orleans came into this game with one of the worst defenses in the NFL after giving up over 1,000 yards and 65 combined points in its first two games against the Vikings and Patriots. Carolina had some offensive woes in the 2-0 start against the 49ers and Bills, scoring just 32 combined points through two weeks, heading into a matchup with Drew Brees and the Saints, a team that averaged 29.3 points per game last season.
Carolina opened the game with a nearly nine-minute drive down to the Saints 8-yard-line before a sack of quarterback Cam Newton forced the Panthers into a 32-yard field goal. The Saints answered with a 75-yard drive of their own, capped off with a touchdown pass from Brees to put New Orleans up 7-3. Brees went on to throw two more touchdowns and 220 yards without an interception. The Saints put up 362 yards of total offense against a Panthers defense that had allowed fewer than 400 total yards in their previous two games combined. The Panther offense struggled all day long, mustering just 288 total yards of offense and 13 points. ‘Under’ bettors were looking good in the fourth quarter until Cam Newton was picked off with the return to the Carolina 35-yard-line. A few plays later Saints running back Alvin Kamara dashed 25 yards for a touchdown with 4:42 remaining to push the game ‘over’ the closing number by a half-point, through early week bettors saw a figure as high as 49 as the middle was possible.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) 30, Detroit Lions 26 (50½): The surprising 2-0 Lions hosted the 2-0 Falcons on Sunday in a game featuring a pair of unbeaten teams in the NFC. Detroit never led in the game but almost pulled off another last second win (and cover) but a rarely used NFL rule kept them from cashing in. With 12 seconds left on the clock and Detroit facing a third-and-goal, quarterback Matthew Stafford threw a strike to WR Golden Tate on a slant route. Tate caught the ball and initially appeared to score with eight seconds remaining, but replay officials ruled that Tate was down just short of the goal line. NFL rules require 10 seconds to be run off the clock in such late game situations when a replay review stops the clock in a situation the clock would not normally stop in. Since the Lions didn't have any timeouts remaining to prevent the runoff, the game ended after the controversial review.
Statistically, the Falcons held a rushing and total yardage advantage but three interceptions thrown by Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan kept the Lions in the game. Ryan’s first interception was returned for a touchdown, his second led to a field goal, and his third was at Detroit’s 8-yards line with the Falcons threatening to score. The Detroit comeback was also aided by a late game pass interference call on 3rd-and-10 with just 24 seconds left in the game at the Falcons 19-yard-line. Despite the turnovers and the late game scare, the Falcons held on to win and cover the 3-point road favorite spread.
Philadelphia Eagles (-5) 27, New York Giants 24 (42): The Eagles and Giants squared off in a huge NFC East showdown in what the oddsmakers were suggesting would be a low-scoring defensive grinder with a total set at just 42 points, actually down from an opening number of 43. ‘Over’ players may have torn their tickets up at halftime when the two teams combined for just 287 yards of total offense and seven points. The third quarter was pretty much the same as the first two with the Eagles managing a touchdown with only five minutes left in the quarter to lead 14-0 of a favorite line that fell from -6 to -5 by kickoff. Everything changed in the fourth quarter as the two teams combined for 37 points. The Giants offense came into this game averaging just 251 total yards of offense per game but racked up 296 total yards in the second half alone against the Eagles.
New York scored three touchdowns in the span of just over five minutes early in the fourth quarter with the help of a fumble from Zach Ertz. The total was reached with just over five minutes remaining in the game as Corey Clement scored his first NFL touchdown on a 15-yard rush, knotting the score at 21-21. The Giants secured the win for the ‘over’ with a 41-yard field goal just ahead of the three-minute mark and overtime looked realistic after the Eagles hit their own three-pointer in the final minute. The Giants opted to throw in the final minute but wound up a yard short on 3rd-and-15 and had to punt with the Eagles still retaining a timeout. Brad Wing only got off a 28-yard punt as the Eagles started their own 38-yard-line and rookie kicker Jake Elliott gave the Eagles the win with an epic 61-yard kick as time expired, though still netting a win for those on the Giants plus the points.
Tennessee Titans (-2½) 33, Seattle Seahawks 27 (42): ‘Under’ bettors were looking good at halftime of the Seattle Seahawks vs. Tennessee Titans game as the two teams combined for just 16 points at intermission. This game started out with eight straight drives that resulted in either team punting and zero points. The third quarter featured a severe turn in the scoring pace of the game.
The two teams combined for five touchdowns in the first seven possessions out of the break, three of which came on drives of 4 plays/75 yards, 5 plays/54 yards and 1 play/75 yards. Those five touchdowns came in just over 13 minutes of game clock and greatly shifted the trajectory of the total. The biggest score of that stretch was a 75-yard touchdown run by the Titans running back DeMarco Murray, which was the longest touchdown run allowed by the ‘Legion of Doom’ defense since Pete Carroll took over in Seattle in 2010. The 195 rushing yards allowed by Seattle were the most allowed by a Seahawks team dating back to November of 2014 as well.
Green Bay Packers (-7) 27, Cincinnati Bengals 24 (48): After not scoring an offensive touchdown in their first two games the Bengals replaced their offensive coordinator and scored an opening drive touchdown in Green Bay. Early in the second quarter the Bengals added another offensive score on a 6-yard pass to RB Giovani Bernard to lead 14-7. The Bengals defense came up with a touchdown just two minutes later, picking off Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and returning it 75 yards for a score. That was just the second time in the career of Rodgers that he’s thrown an interception for a touchdown.
After the torrid scoring start there were no points scored in the final 10 minutes of the first half to keep the ‘under’ in play and the Bengals offense then reverted to their form of the first two games. The Packers added a touchdown on their first second half possession to trail 21-14 heading into the final frame. More than 10 minutes passed without points but Green Bay settled for a short field goal early in the fourth quarter to reach of a total of 38 after Cincinnati had missed a late third quarter field goal.
The Bengals were pinned deep with about 10 minutes remaining in the game up by seven, getting a big pass interference call on a 3rd down play to extend the drive, eventually getting a field goal to go back up by seven with about four minutes remaining. Rodgers led the Packers on a 12-play, 75-yard drive that resulted in a touchdown with 17 seconds to play, tying the game 24-24. Overtime locked the underdog Bengals in for a cover in most scenarios and those on the ‘under’ at the late week number of 48 needed 10 more scoreless minutes for a push. Cincinnati punted and the Packers delivered a 72-yard pass play to Geronimo Allison to set up the game winning and ‘over’ clinching field goal.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) 28, Arizona Cardinals 17 (46½): The Monday night ‘under’ pace was strong with a 7-7 score at the half and still just a 14-14 game through three quarters. Dak Prescott eluded pressure and hit Brice Butler 37 yards away in the end zone to put the Cowboys up seven just past the 12-minute mark. Arizona answered with a field goal to put the total at 38 with about six minutes to go but Dallas only needed four plays to take a commanding 28-17 lead.
The favorite cover and the ‘under’ had to survive a late Arizona drive, reaching 1st-and-goal at the Dallas five-yard-line with just over a minute remaining. The Cardinals were down two scores and could have opted for a field goal that would have shifted the total result but instead still went for it on 4th-and-2 with a pass falling incomplete. Had Arizona scored they would have gone for two, with the conversion result creating a push or even a loss for some on Dallas early the week at -3½.