Coaches on the Hot Seat
By Bruce Marshall
"Nothing is etched in granite."
That statement, or other words to that effect, have appeared on many TGS pages throughout the years. And handicapping-wise, that's a good motto to keep handy, especially dealing with pointspread trends and angles that have been accumulated in past seasons.
Apparently, however, the same phrase could apply to the evolution of the NFL coaching carousel. In particular the Tennessee Titans and their owner, Bud Adams, once the most notoriously trigger-happy boss in the business. Indeed, the thought of Adams ever employing the longest-tenured coach in pro football once seemed about as likely as Bill O'Reilly and Keith Olbermann becoming the best of friends. But a quick look at the NFL coaching lineup notes that Adams' Jeff Fisher, hired to replace Jack Pardee when the franchise was still based in Houston back in 1994, is actually the longest-tenured coach in the league. This from the same owner who used to run coaches in and out like a train depot. In one three year stretch right after the AFL-NFL merger, Adams' Oilers ran through Wally Lemm, Ed Hughes, Bill Peterson, and Sid Gillman all in a short span between 1970-73. He once fired Bum Phillips after three straight playoff appearances between 1978-80. And his Oilers coaching merry-go-round continued almost unabated until Fisher's hire. (Maybe it's just a case of Adams mellowing with age, like his baseball counterpart with the New York Yankees, George Steinbrenner, once just as notorious for running his managers in and out of town until allowing Joe Torre an uninterrupted run between 1996-2007).
Interestingly, though Bud Adams has become kinder and gentler as the years have gone by, the NFL has hardly become more "coach friendly" than in the past. Where it has mostly departed from previous years, however, is generally refraining to hit the eject buttons on coaches during the regular season, which is a marked departure from standard operating procedure of previous decades. Ironically, in recent years it's been college coaches who have been more likely to get their walking papers before the season concludes than their NFL counterparts. Perhaps that's because in tighter economic times, colleges have had more sources to tap into in order to finance coaching buyouts; NFL teams usually have only one benefactor (the owner, although in some cases there are multiple ownership interests) to finance such maneuvers.
Regardless, coaches can still get the boot in the NFL during the regular season, and many of them are certainly still on the hot seat until the campaign concludes, when many of their fates will be decided. Following are some looks at the "hottest" seats in the NFL coaching fraternity as we enter October, and what the chances might be for those coaches to walk the plank before the season concludes.
Jim Zorn, Washington Redskins...We hate to mention Zorn, a truly decent fellow, in any such list. And we will always have a soft spot for Zorn after following his early days as a player with the expansion Seattle Seahawks; we remember an unheralded Zorn leading a second-half comeback in the Seahawks' first-ever game, an exhibition vs. the San Francisco 49ers at the Kingdome, way back on August 1, 1976, the same day the Montreal Olympics concluded (Zorn's late rally ended two yards short of a tying TD in a 27-20 49ers win). But the handwriting is on the wall in Washington, where notoriously meddlesome and impatient owner Dan Snyder craves a bigger name to coach his team, and is running out of patience with Zorn after last year's Skins faded to 8-8 and opened this season an unimpressive 1-2, barely avoiding back-to-back defeats vs. the lowly Rams and Lions in the process. And after that ugly loss in Detroit, some D.C. observers thought Snyder might hit the eject button on Zorn before this week's game vs. the Bucs. That stay of execution, however, might not last much longer if the Skins can't win this week, and many sources say they would not be surprised to see defensive coordinator Greg Blache promoted on an interim basis as soon as it appears Zorn is finished. That, however, would figure only as a temporary situation, as many expect Snyder to make spirited runs at a number of high-profile former Super Bowl coaches now on the market, including Bill Cowher, Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, Jon Gruden, and Brian Billick, with high-profile college mentors such as Southern Cal's Pete Carroll and Oklahoma's Bob Stoops also likely to get a call. Snyder's reputation will likely turn off most of the candidates (of those former Super Bowl coaches, Billick would seem the most likely to welcome a chance to work for Snyder), although the Redskin owner could sweeten the pot if offering player personnel control as well (which would mean the possible dismissal of Director of Football Operations Vinny Cerrato, also rumored to be in the works as soon as Zorn's fate in confirmed). Carroll, who has resisted recent NFL overtures, is said to be only interested in another pro opportunity if he gets total control of the football operation, and that might not even be enough to get him to budge from SC. Snyder, however, might be tempted to offer the moon. Stay tuned.
Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders...If any owner has filled the trigger-finger gap created by Bud Adams' mellowing, it's fellow AFL pioneer Al Davis, who's made the former versions of Adams and Steinbrenner seem almost passive by comparison with his recent antics that include canning coaches after just one season on the job (Joe Bugel and Art Shell, with Lane Kiffin lasting just a few games longer), others after just two years (Mike White, Norv Turner, and Bill Callahan, the latter just a year after taking the Silver and Black to the Super Bowl), and literally chasing Jon Gruden out of town to Tampa Bay after back-to-back playoff appearances. All of this since the franchise relocated back to Oakland in 1995. Cable would appear the next to go, with the Raiders appearing increasingly inept on the field and providing little help to JaMarcus Russell, who has few NFL-caliber weapons at his disposal. Some league sources are wondering if this damage to Russell's psyche might have a negative impact on his ability to ever become a top-flight (or even middle-flight) NFL QB. Cable's situation could be even more tenuous thanks to his preseason altercation with assistant coach Randy Hansen, although to some in Raider Nation that almost serves as a feather in Cable's cap. Davis, however, has been increasingly impatient in the past decade, and will look to throw someone under the bus if the Oakland season disintegrates once again. Unfortunately for Cable, that will likely be him.
We think Zorn and Cable might be the only two coaches who are likely to walk the plank during the regular season, but we suspect a few others could eventually be in trouble as well.
Norv Turner, San Diego...Never mind that Norv has steered the Chargers deeper into the playoffs than predecessor Marty Schottenheimer, whose Charger teams had usually burned themselves out before the postseason commenced. But most believe the team has been performing at something less than its capacity for Turner over the past couple of seasons, benefiting greatly from what has been the NFL's weakest division (AFC West) over that span. Too many times the Chargers have appeared to sleepwalk on Norv's watch, and with a potential legitimate division contender perhaps emerging in Denver, it is not that far-fetched a notion to envision the Chargers (already with mounting injuries) missing the playoffs entirely. At which point we doubt GM A.J. Smith would risk another season with Norv and the hopes that the team might rally again down a future stretch drive and peak in the playoffs.
Eric Mangini, Cleveland...Admittedly, the Browns have been in pretty tough this season, with early foes Minnesota, Denver, and Baltimore a combined 9-0. And Mangini is in his first year on his new job. But Cleveland has looked bad in its losses, continues to struggle mightily on offense (no TDs in two of its first three games, on top of the six straight games without one to end '08 on Romeo Crennel's watch), and has apparently chafed at some of Mangini's notorious mind games that include keeping a "secret" of opening-day starting QB Brady Quinn and the recent $1701 fines to players for not paying $3 for a bottle of water in the team hotel, a development that is headed for a showdown between the Browns and the NFL Players Association. A clubhouse meltdown similar to what Mangini experienced in his last days with the Jets might be coming sooner than expected, which might force the Lerners to pull the plug on this experiment much sooner than anyone could have anticipated.
Dick Jauron, Buffalo...The Bills have played a bit better than expected in the early going for the ex-Ivy leaguer Jauron (although some sources have told us that the Ivy stereotype might not have ever applied to Jauron, who more seemed a misplaced jock during his days at Yale). But the evidence against Jauron sticking beyond this season is daunting; he's had seven losing seasons in eight previous years as an NFL head coach (including a 5-year stint with the Bears), and three straight entering this season with the Bills. The dismissal of o.c. Turk Schonert created quite a controversy near the end of preseason, although the offense has seemed a bit more lively with Alex Van Pelt now calling the plays. Still, we doubt Jauron can survive another sub-.500 season and proceed to challenge Dave Wannstedt as the NFL coach with the fewest percentage of winning campaigns in a career of 8 seasons or more.
Lovie Smith, Chicago...Lovie might seem a bit misplaced on this list because his Bears team is a legitimate playoff contender. But that's also the problem Lovie has to solve, because with expectations so high and a new franchise QB (Jay Cutler) finally in tow, anything less than a postseason berth could signal the end of his six-season tenure at Solider Field. GM Jerry Angelo's neck is also on the line for the Bears this season, although we think there's a good chance both will be spared if the Bears finish where we think they will (in the playoffs, perhaps pretty close to, or in, the Super Bowl).
Wade Phillips, Dallas...No coach with a name other than Parcells has been able to avoid the axe on Jerry Jones' watch as owner by not making the playoffs more than once, and we suspect Phillips will get the boot sooner or later. Jones has already given lukewarm endorsements, telling ESPN's Michele Tafoya last week that "I can't imagine Wade Phillips not as our coach...of our defense, at least." Indeed, some Metroplex insiders believe Jones would have pulled the plug on Phillips after last season concluded minus a playoff berth and with a 44-6 loss in Philadelphia, except that it was no time to promote Jones' self-proclaimed successor, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, who bore some of the blame for last season's late collapse. Expect Phillips to be demoted back to defensive coordinator (his calling anyway) at some time in the future, and for Garrett to be likely promoted...although probably not until this season is complete.
Others to watch: Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati and Raheem Morris, Tampa Bay.