NFL Conference Championship Game Handicapping
By Steve Makinen
Hopefully youve enjoyed the round-by-round series on playoff handicapping thus far. This week I move on to the Conference Championship Round, with four teams about to be trimmed in half. Those two lucky teams will represent their respective conferences in Super Bowl XLIV in Miami in two weeks. They cant dream of that ultimate goal until taking care of business here however. Likewise, the bettor shouldnt be looking ahead either, as the two games this weekend are loaded with profit making potential. In fact, you should find the available wagering options expanded greatly for the conference title tilts. In this weeks piece, Ill look mostly at the most common plays, the sides, money lines, and totals.
Like the earlier rounds of the NFL playoffs, the Conference Championship games have taken on a different feel lately than most football fans had become accustomed. For one, no longer is the #1 seed a lock to be hosting the game. In fact, prior to 2006, top seeds had hosted 21 of the 26 games since 92. Since then, they have only host three of the last eight. With upsets becoming the norm in the earlier rounds, the typical methods for handicapping the Conference Championships has changed dramatically. Well dive deeper into that as we move along, but well start with the fact that home teams are just 20-14 SU & 16-17-1 ATS in the last 34. One thing that has stayed consistent however, is the fact that the games in this round have been reliably high scoring. In terms of the total, OVER has been the result in 21 of 34 games since 92, and only twice in that period was the UNDER the result in both games in a single year.
The trend on the total gives us something favorable to dig deeper into. With the sides being split so evenly, its unlikely that well be able to come up with anything to top last weeks 17-0 ATS Divisional Round Trend, but lets give it a try anyway.
General Divisional Trends
Ive already established the fact that most recent Conference Championship games have gone OVER the total. If you look back at just the games since 05, nine of the 10 games have seen the total go that way. Home field advantage has been restored somewhat as well of late, with hosts on a run of 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS dating back to the late game of January 22nd of 2006. Here are some other general handicapping tidbits you might be able to utilize the weekend:
AFC and NFC Conference Championship games have shown varying results. In the AFC, road teams are on a run of 5-5 SU & 6-4 ATS in the last decade. In the NFC, home field has been more advantageous, with hosts boasting a record of 4-1 SU & ATS in the L5.
Overall, favorites own an 8-6 ATS edge in the last seven years on Conference Championship Sunday. AFC favorites have carried that edge though, going 5-2 ATS.
The last four NFC Championship games have gone OVER the total. The home team has poured in 30.4 PPG in that span. In that same span, AFC road teams have been the higher scoring of the teams, averaging 27 PPG. Four of the L5 in the AFC went OVER the total.
Trends by Seed Number
Heres a breakdown of trends specific to the seed number of the playoff teams involved in the Conference Championship games:
The last five times that a Conference Championship game was hosted by a non-#1 seed, the games went OVER the total, producing 52 PPG. The last three non-#1 seeded hosts won their games, both SU & ATS.
#1 seeds are holding their own once they advance to this round, boasting a record of 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS since 03.
In the last six #1 vs. #2 seeded matchups in the Conference Championship Round, OVER the total is 5-0-1.
There have been 10 instances since 93 in which a seed #4 or lower reached the Conference Championship Round and took on a #1 or #2. Those lesser seeds boast a 6-4 SU & 6-3-1 ATS record in those games.
Six straight #1 vs. #6 matchups in the Conference Championship Round have gone UNDER the total. As a sign of the new times, the #6 has swept the last three meetings, both SU & ATS, after losing the prior seven.
Line Range Trends
Lines in the Conference Championship Round have been a bit tighter than those of the Divisional Round, with the average favorite laying 5.4 points since 93, as compared to 7.1 points last week. Furthermore, there have been six home underdogs in that span, a relatively high percentage. Take a look at these other line specific trends:
Double-digit home favorites have won games but have not been a solid bet in the Conference Championship Round of late, going 5-2 SU but just 1-6 ATS (14%) since 96, including five straight ATS losses.
There is a reason some hosts have played as underdogs at this point in the season, as evidenced by their 2-4 SU & 2-3-1 ATS record in such occurrences. However, Arizona did pull an outright upset of Philadelphia last January.
Hosts have been most reliable when playing as favorites in the -3 to -9.5 line range in Conference Championship Round games, going 13-8 SU & ATS since 93. Interestingly, the straight up winner is 21-0 ATS in such games, and six straight contests of this type have gone OVER the total.
So far wee seen bettors be very successful in moving the lines in the Wildcard Round, while not faring well with the same strategy in the Divisional Round. In the Conference Title tilts, it has been split dead down the middle, 13-13 ATS. Furthermore, when moving the line towards the hosts, bettors have gone 6-6 ATS, when moving it to the road team, theyve gone 7-7 ATS. Thus, we can take very little from how the lines move throughout the week.
Going back to 94, 10 Conference Championship games have seen a line move 1.5-points or more throughout the week. Bettors are 4-5-1 ATS in those games following the money, but when the line has moved 3-points or more, bettors are just 0-3-1 ATS. In other words, youd have been much better off fading the line move in such cases.
Total Range Trends
As touched upon a few times already, the majority of Conference Championship games have gone OVER the total in recent years. Lets see what else we can uncover regarding totals:
There have been two total ranges that have produced the most frequent percentage of games going OVER the total. In Conference Championship games with totals in the 37-41 range (average total), the OVER is 7-1-1 since 93. In games expected to be most high scoring, or those 46 or above, the OVER is 8-2.
The betting public has been poor dealing with totals in the Conference Championship Round, as since 93, the smart money is just 12-20 for 32%. In other words, fade the direction the total is moving. If you recall last week piece on the Divisional Round, following the total move netted a 60% chance of winning.
Weather often has a huge bearing on which way the total moves throughout the week during this round, and that explains why a high percentage of games (22 out of 34 since 93) have seen the total move 1.5 points or more. As it turns out though, the success of following the money on a total bet increases dramatically if the total move was 2.5-points or more throughout the week. In such cases since 93, this smart money has gone 7-3-1 (70%).
Scoring Trends
Games in the Conference Championship Round are won by scoring points, plain and simple. In fact, unlike past rounds, the amount of points it takes to ensure a spread cover increase quite a bit:
Home teams that failed to reach 20 points in the Conference Championship Round have gone 1-9 SU & 0-10 ATS since 93. If youve been keeping track, including the four Wildcard games this year, home teams that fail to score 20 points are 1-33-1 ATS in the NFL playoffs since 93.
Unlike the previous two rounds, scoring 20 points is no assurance of either a win or cover for a home team. The key number here is 30 points. Those hosts that score between 20-29 points have gone just 8-5 SU & 5-7-1 ATS over the last 17 years in the Conference Championship Round. Those that score 30 points have swept their last 11 games, both SU & ATS.
There has been very little scoring-wise by road teams in the Conference Championships that has defined success when compared to home teams, and/or other rounds. In fact, there seems to be only a slight break at the 16-point mark. When visitors do reach 16 points, they are 14-6-1 ATS. When they dont, they are 3-10 ATS.
Trends based upon Won-Lost Records
There have been 13 of 34 games in the last 17 years of the Conference Championship Playoffs when the road team has had the same amount of wins or more than the host. Those visitors are 7-6 SU & 6-6-1 ATS. Here are some more worthwhile trends concerning won-lost marks and the Conference Championship Round:
Home teams that won 14 games or more in the regular season are just 4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS in the Conference Championship Round. Whats more, none of these eight teams scored 30 points in the game.
No road team that won 11 or fewer games (including playoffs) has advanced past this point since prior to93, as they are just 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their L5 Conference Championship Round appearances.
Road teams in the Conference Championship games with three or fewer losses in the regular season have advanced to the Super Bowl five straight times, going 5-0 ATS, regardless of the quality of the host opponent.
Trends based upon Statistical Traits
Going into Conference Championship games, here are the trends concerning statistical edges. Keep in mind that these season stats DO include those obtained in the previous weeks playoff games.
Teams with an edge in Offensive Points per Game are 16-17-1 ATS (48%) in the Conference Championship Round since 93. However, since 05, the effectiveness of this particular stat has improved, with a record of 6-4 ATS (60%).
Teams with an edge in Offensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are an ugly 8-17-1 (32%) ATS in the Conference Championship Round since 96. It appears again though that this has become more important in recent years, as since 04, the team with the edge in this category is at least even at 6-6 ATS (50%).
Remember our potent trends from last weeks Divisional Round on teams with an edge in Yards per Rush? Well, no such luck for the Conference Championship tilts, as teams with an edge in this stat are just 12-21-1 ATS (36%) since 93, including just 5-15 ATS over the last decade.
Teams that have averaged more Pass Yards per Attempt going into a Conference Championship game havent done well either, going just 13-20-1 ATS (39%) since 93, although they have split the last seven years games, 7-7 ATS.
Not surprisingly, with the lack of success by teams with better rushing or passing statistics in the Conference Championship Round, those with an edge in Yards per Play havent fared well either, 14-19-1 ATS (42%) since 93. Perhaps a momentum shift has begun though, with a 6-4 ATS mark since 05.
Yards per Point has proven to be more effective than any of the pure yardage stats in Conference Championship Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat are 16-17-1 ATS (48%) overall since 93. Unlike some of the other offensive indicators thus far though, it has turned of late for the worse, as evidenced by the 4-8 ATS (33%) record since 04.
Turnover Differential has proven to be the most effective indicator we have found yet in predicting Conference Championship Round success since 93, as teams with an edge in this stat are 21-11-1 ATS (66%). Edge teams own a 10-6 ATS (42%) record since 01 as well, so it has been consistent.
At this point, concerning offensive statistics, we have found very little to go on other than Tunrover Differential, to use as a predictor for this weekends games. In fact, if anything, we may proved that going against the grain, and backing the lesser offense may be a more sound strategy. Lets see if we can find anything in looking at the defensive numbers. My guess is the numbers will be more favorable, as with familiarity, pressure, and weather, etc, this side of the ball is typically more reliable at this late stage of the year.
Teams with an edge in Defensive Points per Game are 18-15-1 (55%) ATS in the Conference Championship Round since 93, so were off to a good start in our research. However, recent developments suggest change is in order, as better defensive teams in this stat are just 2-6 ATS (25%) over the L4 seasons.
Teams with an edge in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 12-13-1 ATS (48%) ATS in the Conference Championship Round since 96, with recent findings showing a similar 6-6 ATS (50%) mark over the last six seasons.
A previously demonstrated ability to stop the run on defense was proven very important in the Divisional Round games. It has proven fairly important in the Conference Championship games too, as since 93, teams with an edge in Defensive Yards per Rush are 20-13-1 ATS (61%). Over the last four playoff seasons, an edge in this stat has produced a 5-3 ATS (63%) record.
Teams better at stopping big plays through the air, or those allowing fewer Pass Yards per Attempt, are 19-14-1 ATS (58%) in the Conference Championship Round since 93, and 13-5 ATS (72%) dating back to 01. This so far, is our most potent recent statistical angle.
The combination of Yards per Rush allowed and Yards per Pass Attempt allowed gives you Yards per Play on defense. Teams with an edge in the Conference Championship Round in this stat are 17-16-1 ATS (52%) since 93, but 11-7 ATS (61%) over the last nine seasons.
Defensive Yards per Point has been a relatively strong predictor in Conference Championship Round, as teams with an edge in this stat are 18-15-1 ATS (55%) since 93. This trend has also been solid in the last nine seasons, 12-6 ATS (67%).
As expected, the defensive edge trends produced some more promising results. I took these trends a step further and combined the games in which one team had an edge defensively in BOTH Yards per Rush and Yards per Pass allowed. These teams are 12-6 ATS in the Conference Championship games. Still, this is nothing like we came up with last week.
As it turns out, the best angle I could uncover using the statistical edge combinations came when a team had BOTH a better Turnover Differential AND allowed fewer Yards Per Rush on defense. These teams are 15-6 ATS (71%) in the Conference Championships since 93, including 6-0 ATS (100%) if the team with the edge was the visitor. Well see if either of our two matchups for 10 present an opportunity based upon this trend.
Its hard to believe the football season is almost over. The next time we get together well be getting ready for the Super Bowl. I will of course have plenty to satisfy your handicapping appetite for that game! In the meantime, good luck on Sundays games.