NFL Conference Previews

AFC North Breakdown
By Gary Bart
VegasInsider.com

The AFC North shapes up as one of the most competitive divisions in the entire NFL, which you can see by the future odds listed below.

Odds to win AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 5/4
Pittsburgh Steelers 2/1
Cincinnati Bengals 9/4
Cleveland Browns 15/1

AFC North Win Totals
Baltimore Ravens - 9 (Over -140, Under +120)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 8.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
Cincinnati Bengals - 8.5 (Over -125, Under +105)
Cleveland Browns - 6.5 (Over +140, Under -160)

The Steelers, Bengals and Ravens all made the playoffs in 2014. Baltimore upset Pittsburgh in the Wild Card Round and then lost a close game against the Patriots in New England in the Divisional Round. Cincinnati made their usual first round exit in a loss at home to the Colts. The last place Browns finished with an improved 7-9 record.

Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens are one of the best organizations in the NFL. They are led by head coach John Harbaugh who has seven playoff appearances in eight seasons and a Super Bowl victory in 2012. Ozzie Newsome is an elite general manager and a great talent evaluator.

Baltimore almost upset the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots in last year’s AFC Divisional Round. They were adequate on offense last season but struggled on the defensive side of the ball against the pass. I was surprised they waited until the fourth round to pick their first and only defensive back considering their weakness in this area.

The Ravens have an easier schedule than the Steelers and the Bengals. They added skilled position pieces to their offense by drafting deep threat receiver Breshad Perriman in the first round, tight end Maxx Williams with their second pick and running back Javorius Allen with their second pick of the fourth round. This will give new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman a lot of talent to work with. If the Ravens can resolve their pass defense issues they could be Super Bowl contenders.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers won this division last season but were upset by the Ravens in the opening round of the playoffs. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had an outstanding 2014 regular season. Big Ben threw for 32 touchdown passes with only nine interceptions and a career high 4,952 passing yards.

The Steelers parted ways with long time defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau after the Steelers finished 18th in total defense and 27th against the pass. They address their defensive issues by selecting Kentucky outside linebacker Bud Dupree with their first round selection and unanimous first team All-American Mississippi cornerback Senquez Golson with their second pick. In total, the Steelers took six defensive players in this year’s draft.

Pittsburgh will have a tough time matching last year’s 11-5 record. They play the toughest schedule in the league, including nine games against playoff teams while playing only four games against teams that had sub 500 records. Their schedule will make it difficult for the Steelers to repeat as Division Champions and they may have a tough time making the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how the defense responds to the absence of Dick LeBeau.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals qualified for the playoffs last season with a 10-5-1 record. They have not won a playoff game in 24 years and set an NFL record by losing an opening-round playoff game for the fourth consecutive year. The outcome of that game was not surprising. The Bengals were not a very good statistical team, ranked 15th on offense and 22nd on defense last season.

Cincinnati tried to address their issues on both sides of the ball by selecting five offensive and four defensive players in this year’s draft. They went big in the first three rounds picking two offensive tackles and a tight end with their first three selections.

Marvin Lewis is 0-6 in the playoffs despite qualifying for the playoffs in six of his 12 seasons as head coach. It will be difficult for this team to make the playoffs this season unless they improve on last year’s offensive and defensive statistics. This statistical problem will be compounded by the fact that the Bengals have the league’s second most difficult schedule. If Cincinnati misses the playoffs or suffer another opening-round playoff loss Lewis’ job may be in jeopardy.

Cleveland Browns

The Cleveland Browns were an improved team last season. They added to their talent pool with 12 picks in this year’s draft. Cleveland had two first round choices and seem to have made good selections in this year’s draft. They had a total of seven picks in the first four rounds. The Browns are in the process of building a very strong defensive line and were able to add players at a number of other positions including Florida State offensive centre Cameron Erving with their second first round pick.

The problem with the Browns is at quarterback. They signed 12-year journeyman Josh McCown who has never played a full NFL season. Johnny Manziel is starting his second year with the Browns. Drafting Manziel in the first round last year may be another costly mistake, similar to the drafting of two other first round quarterback busts Brady Quinn and Brandon Weeden.

This is general manager Ray Farmer’s second season. He accomplished a lot in this year’s draft. I think this team will have difficulty contending for a playoff spot because of their deficiency at quarterback and as a result of having the ninth most challenging schedule.

AFC South Breakdown
By Gary Bart
VegasInsider.com

The Indianapolis Colts are the favorites to win their third consecutive AFC South Division title. They are coming off an 11-5 season that included a trip to the AFC Championship game. I'm stating the obvious that the Colts are in a very weak division and will not be challenged by the Texans, Jaguars or Titans.

Odds to win AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 1/4
Houston Texans 4/1
Tennessee Titans 20/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 20/1

AFC South Win Totals
Indianapolis Colts - 10.5 (Over -150, Under +130)
Houston Texans - 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Tennessee Titans - 5.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 5.5 (Over -150), Under +130)

Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are coming off a very good 2014 season. They won their first two playoff games before losing 45-7 to the Patriots in the conference championship. Indianapolis had the third ranked offense and No.1 ranked passing attack last season. These statistics look impressive, but they are very deceptive. The Colts played a weak regular season schedule that included only six games against teams that made the playoffs. They were able to run up the score against weak opponents and went just 2-4 against teams that made the playoffs.

Quarterback Andrew Luck is entering his fourth NFL season. He had a breakout season in 2014, throwing 40 touchdown passes with only 16 interceptions. Luck is a good signal caller but I cannot put him in the elite category at this time. He has a habit of making poor decisions at key times, a problem that goes back to his college days at Stanford. Indianapolis will play the second easiest schedule in the entire league. Most observers would think this is a positive situation for this team, but is it a two edge sword? The upside is that the Colts should walk away with the division and will have a very good chance of securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The downside could be that they may not be fully prepared when facing elite teams during the playoffs.

The Colts should win the division. The question is whether or not Andrew Luck can stop making poor decisions in key situations and if the Colts can figure out a way to improve on their 22nd ranked rushing attack. The offseason addition of running back Frank Gore should help the cause for the Colts.

They will also need to find a way to play better defense against good teams. The Colts gave up an average of 41.5 points per game in their four losses to playoff teams last season. That does not include the 45 points they allowed against the Patriots in the AFC title game.

Indianapolis did sign three defensive free agents albeit older veterans during the offseason but they waited until the third round before selecting their first defensive player in this year’s draft, a decision that could be costly. If the Colts can improve on defense they should contend for a spot in the Super Bowl.

Houston Texans

The Houston Texans rebounded with a 9-7 record after a terrible 2-14 season in 2013. They drafted Wake Forest cornerback Kevin Johnson with their first round pick in an effort to improve their 21st ranked passing defense. They also addressed a need on offense by taking two wide receivers with their third and fourth picks.

It made sense that the Texans picked two wide receivers in this year’s draft, but I am wonder who is going to throw the ball to them. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played in 12 games for the Texans last season and was not resigned. Ryan Mallet who has played in just seven NFL games, inexperienced second-year pro Tom Savage and journeyman Brian Hoyer are competing for the starting quarterback position.

Houston has the third easiest schedule in the league. With their lack of experience and quality at the quarterback position, it will be difficult for this team to match last year’s 9-7 record, despite their soft schedule.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is coming off another disappointing season. They finished 3-13 and were rewarded with the third overall pick in the draft. After some gamesmanship leading up to the draft the Jaguars selected Florida defensive end Dante Fowler. Fowler was penciled in as a starter until he tore his ACL during the team’s first minicamp workout.

The Jaguars addressed their need at quarterback in 2014 when they drafted Blake Bortles with the third overall pick. They also added wide receiver targets Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson in the second round of last year’s draft. Jacksonville may have found their starting running back in Alabama’s T.J. Yeldon and they also added two wide receivers in the later rounds to compliment Lee and Robinson.

It will not be difficult for this team to improve on last year’s record, even with the loss of Fowler. Bortles was not very good in the 14 games he appeared in during his rookie season. If Jacksonville can have success running the football with Yeldon and if Bortles lives up to expectations, the Jaguars could surprise a few teams.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans were 2-14 last year. When a team wins only two games in a season they usually need upgrades at most positions. They may have helped themselves on offense by picking quarterback Marcus Mariota with the second overall pick in this year’s draft. The drafting of Mariota, along with troubled Missouri wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham provides an upgrade at two important skilled positions.

Mariota was a standout in college and he could be a solid leader for the Titans. It is unclear at this point if Mariota will start the season as the number one quarterback or if second-year pro Zach Mettenberger will get the call. I do not see this team contending for a playoff spot. If the Titans are smart, they will not rush Mariota and continue to rebuild.

AFC West Breakdown
By Gary Bart
VegasInsider.com

The AFC West shapes up as an interesting division for the 2015 season. Once again, the Broncos are the favorites to repeat as Division Champions.

At the opposite end of the spectrum are the Oakland Raiders who finished in last place last season with a 3-13 record. In the middle of the pack are two teams that are coming off disappointing seasons.

The Kansas City Chiefs and the San Diego Chargers both missed the playoffs with identical 9-7 records. Both teams made the playoffs in 2013 with the Chargers making it to the Divisional Round.

It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs can regain their 2013 form that included a 9-0 start and if the Raiders can improve on their 3-13 record.

Odds to win AFC West
Denver Broncos 1/2
Kansas City Chiefs 4/1
San Diego Chargers 5/1
Oakland Raiders 18/1

AFC West Win Totals
Denver Broncos - 10 (Over -135, Under +115)
Kansas City Chiefs - 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
San Diego Chargers - 8 (Over -140, Under +120)
Oakland Raiders - 5.5 (Over -110, Under -110)

Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos are coming off another tremendous regular season. They finished with a 12-4 record but were unable to reach the Super Bowl. They lost to the Indianapolis Colts at home as a 9.5 point favourite in the Divisional Round.

Peyton Manning returns for his fourth season with the Broncos. Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, despite having only one Super Bowl win to his credit.

Surprisingly, the Broncos parted ways with one of the league’s best coaches John Fox, who led the Broncos to a 46-18 record and four division titles during his four year tenure. The departure of Fox was based on philosophical differences on the offensive side of the ball between Fox and general manager John Elway. Fox is being replaced by former Houston Texans head coach Gary Kubiak. The Broncos were good on both sides of the ball last season, finishing third in the league on defense and fourth in the league in offense.

Denver may have pulled off the steal of the draft by picking Missouri consensus first-team All- American and SEC Defensive Player of the Year Shane Rae with the 23rd pick. They improved themselves on the offensive line by picking two offensive linemen and Ohio State tight end Jeff Heuerman in the next three rounds. These selections should help the Broncos improve their seventh ranked rushing offense and help Peyton Manning’s passing attack. The Broncos are loaded at key positions.

There are two pressing questions about this team. Will Peyton Manning have enough left in the tank after fading late last season because of an apparent leg injury and will John Elway’s coaching change be the right move?

If this team stays healthy and if Manning can return to form, the Broncos should win the division easily, making them my early AFC choice to make it to the Super Bowl.

Kansas City Chiefs

Andy Reid starts his third season as head coach of the Chiefs after 14 years as the main man in Philadelphia. Reid had success in Philadelphia, taking them to five NFC title games and one Super Bowl appearance.

The Chiefs are 11-12 since getting off to that 9-0 start in 2013. Kansas City has quarterback issues. They ranked 29th in pass offense last season and 25th in overall offense. The team added free agent wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and drafted two wide receivers in an effort to help unimpressive quarterback Alex Smith. Kansas City are counting on veteran running back Jamal Charles to carry the rushing load, even though his production slipped last season. The Chiefs did not draft a running back in this year’s draft.

Coach Reid reminds me of former Kansas City coach Marty Schottenheimer. Both have had regular season and playoff success but neither has won a Super Bowl. Reid has the reputation of being out coached in big games.

This team could compete for a Wildcard spot or be worse than last year’s 9-7 record. Relying on an aging Charles and not drafting a running back in this year’s draft may be a costly mistake.

San Diego Chargers

I have the Chargers and Chiefs ranked exactly the same. Phillip Rivers is a better quarterback than Alex Smith. I am concerned with San Diego’s 1-3 late collapse last season, after opening with a 5-1 record. The Bolts moved up two spots in this year’s draft to get Doak Walker Award winner and Heisman Trophy runner-up Melvin Gordon to help improve their 30th ranked rushing attack. I like the addition of hard hitting Miami linebacker Denzel Perryman with the 48th selection. Some observers had him rated as a late first round pick. This pick should help the Chargers 26th ranked rushing defense.

The Chargers should be in the mix for a Wildcard spot. The addition of Gordon will help their running game and free up their passing attack. If they can find a way to stop the run, the Bolts could improve on their 9-7 record.

Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders have won 11 regular season games during the past three seasons. They are excited about Fresno State second-year quarterback Derek Carr. The Raiders had the fourth pick in this year’s draft. They seem to have made a solid selection in wide receiver Amari Cooper. Cooper is coming off an outstanding career at Alabama and seems to be a solid citizen. He won the Biletnikoff Award and was a unanimous First Team All-American in 2014.

General Manager Reggie McKenzie has been given mixed grades on the rest of this year’s draft. They snagged another weapon for Carr in the third round, using that pick to draft Miami tight end Clive Walford. McKenzie also traded down in the later rounds of the draft in order to pick up extra selections. I like this strategy for a team that needs an upgrade in talent at most positions.

McKenzie has been the Raiders General Manager since 2012. He needs to have some of his draft picks step up if this team is going to improve on last year’s 3-13 record. I am not sold on Carr at this point. This team will finish last in the division. The only interest I have in the Raiders is to see if they go over or under the 5.5 win total.

NFC East Breakdown
By Gary Bart
VegasInsider.com

In my opinion the NFC East is the most interesting division in the NFL. I cannot wait to see how it unfolds.

The Philadelphia Eagles were 10-6 the past two seasons and made wholesale changes to their roster. It will be fascinating to see if Chip Kelly has success with this new look Eagles team or if they take a step backward.

The Cowboys are coming off a very good season and their fans have every right to be optimistic.

Add to the mix a Giants team that has missed the playoffs for the past three seasons and the Redskins with their quarterback issue and this division should provide a lot of excitement throughout the entire year.

Odds to win NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 11/10
Philadelphia Eagles 7/5
New York Giants 9/2
Washington Redskins 15/1

NFC East Win Totals
Dallas Cowboys - 9.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Philadelphia Eagles - 9.5 (Over +120, Under -140)
New York Giants - 8 (Over -120, Under +100)
Washington Redskins - 6 (Over -135, Under +115)

Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are coming off a very successful 12-4 season and a trip to the Divisional Playoffs, which ended with a tough loss to Green Bay. Tony Romo had his best season in 2014 and the highest quarterback rating in the league.

Dallas were forced to make some difficult off-season decisions including not resigning 2014 league rushing leader DeMarco Murray. They had to make that move in order to resign wide receiver Dez Bryant.

Dallas has an exceptional offensive line and feel they can plug in almost any running back to do the job. We are going to find out if the Cowboys are right. They will be going with disappointing seven-year veteran Darren McFadden as their featured back. Third-year pro Joseph Randle will also compete for the starting job.

I am sure Cowboys owner Jerry Jones realized that his team was not going to contend for the Super Bowl unless they improved last year’s 26th ranked passing defense. They addressed that need by selecting Connecticut cornerback Byron Jones with their first pick in this year’s draft and took a chance on highly regarded and troubled defensive end Randy Gregory in the second round. They also signed talented free agent defensive end Greg Hardy from Carolina who will miss the first four games of the season due to suspension.

Dallas did not draft a running back in this year’s draft despite the loss of Murray. It will be interesting to see if their arrogance about slotting in any running back behind their great offensive line will be a mistake. If the Cowboys are able to receive the same production from Romo as they did last season and if Gregory and Hardy can stay out of trouble this team could be playing in February.

We will find out how good the Cowboys are early in the season. They open at home against the Giants and then travel to Philadelphia for a Week 2 matchup against the Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles

Head coach Chip Kelly made some wild moves in the off-season. Most teams coming off consecutive 10-6 seasons try to make improvements by adding pieces to the lower end of their roster. Not Kelly. He decided his team was not going to get to the next level with last year’s roster.

In a surprise move the Eagles traded starting quarterback Nick Foles to the Rams for quarterback Sam Bradford and also traded their number one running back LeSean McCoy to the Bills. The Eagles were unable to re-sign wide receiver Jeremy Maclin who was coming off a career best 85 receptions for 1,318 yards. They did not re-sign five-year safety Nate Allen.

Philadelphia may be taking a gamble going with Bradford as their starter. The first overall pick in 2010 missed all of last season with a torn ACL, played in only seven games in 2013 and 10 games in 2011. Philadelphia signed free agent running back DeMarco Murray to replace McCoy and drafted USC’s diminutive receiver Nelson Agholor in the first round to replace Maclin. The Eagles drafted defensive back Eric Rowe with their second pick and added a pair of former Seattle defensive backs Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond via free agency to help their 28th ranked defense.

It will be interesting to see if Kelly’s moves are enough to put the Eagles into Super Bowl contention. You never know what can happen when a team makes sweeping changes. Philadelphia has one important factor in their favor, which is the 10th easiest schedule in the league.

New York Giants

The New York Giants are coming off two consecutive losing seasons. They have not made the playoffs since their 2012 Super Bowl upset win against the New England Patriots. Their offense was respectable last season, but their 29th ranked defense cost them any chance of making the playoffs.

The Giants may have surprised a few people by waiting until the second round in this year’s draft to bolster their defense. Rather than spending their first draft choice on a defensive player they added 329 pound offensive tackle Ereck Flowers to solidify the offensive line. After drafting Flowers they traded up into the second round to grab Alabama safety Landon Collins. Collins was a projected first round pick that fell to New York in the second round. The Giants added two more defensive players with their next two picks. The only noteworthy free agent signing was former Patriots running back Shane Vereen.

New York have some question marks heading into this season. They are solid at wide receiver with offensive Rookie of the Year Odell Beckham Junior and at QB with 11-year veteran Eli Manning running the show.

The Giants may have been dealt a big blow if defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul does not recover from the loss of his right index finger and broken right thumb suffered in a fireworks accident. There are rumors that Pierre-Paul may have lost more than one finger and that he may be lost for the season. New York also lost starting offensive tackle Will Beatty who suffered an injury to his chest while weight training.

Tom Coughlin is a very good coach, but needs talent in order to compete in the NFC East Division. It will be difficult for the Giants to contend for a playoff spot if Pierre-Paul and Beatty are not available for the entire season.

Washington Redskins

Washington are coming off a 4-12 season and have managed to win just seven games during the past two years. Jay Gruden starts his second year as head coach with a lot of question marks surrounding this team. The most concern has to involve 4th year quarterback Robert Griffin. RG3 is coming off two injury plagued seasons after he burst onto the scene in 2012. He was a dominant player in his rookie season until he injured his knee. Griffin played in only seven games last season and has not been able to match his 2012 success.

The Redskins were better statistically last season in some areas than their 4-12 record would suggest. They finished 13th in total offense and 20th in total defense, but were 30th in points allowed. Washington may be heading in the right direction in overall team talent after drafting 10 players in this year’s draft. They went big in the first two rounds selecting Iowa offensive lineman Brandon Scherff with the fifth overall pick and Mississippi State defensive end Preston Smith early in the second round. Rookie general manager Scot McCloughan added five free agents to their defense including three linemen.

It will be interesting to see if McCloughan’s moves pay off. Their biggest problem remains at quarterback. Griffin has great athletic ability, but lacks in other areas. His biggest deficiency is his inability to pick up secondary receivers when his primary receiver is covered. As a result, it did not take long for defensive coordinators to take advantage of a less mobile RG3. If Griffin is unable to improve this part of his game it will be his last season playing for the Redskins.

The Redskins have made a number of key roster changes. I can see them improving on last year’s record, but not enough to challenge for a playoff spot.

NFC North Breakdown
By Gary Bart
VegasInsider.com

The Green Bay Packers are the best team in the NFC North and should win their fifth consecutive North Division title without being challenged. The intrigue should come from the other three teams in the division as a result of key changes to the Bears and Lions and the controversy surrounding the Minnesota Vikings.

Odds to win NFC North
Green Bay Packers 1/4
Detroit Lions 11/2
Minnesota Vikings 8/1
Chicago Bears 12/1

NFC North Win Totals
Green Bay Packers - 11 (Over +110, Under -130)
Detroit Lions - 8.5 (Over +120, Under -140)
Minnesota Vikings - 7.5 (Over -145, Under -125)
Chicago Bears - 7 (Over +130, Under -150)

Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.

Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers were 12-4 last season and just missed out on a trip to the Super Bowl. They had a commanding 19-7 lead with approximately four minutes remaining in the NFC Championship against Seattle before unravelling and eventually losing in overtime. The Packers will have a chance to avenge that loss in Week 2 from Lambeau Field.

The Packers were a respectable sixth in the league in total offense. They ranked 15th in the league on defense and 23rd against the run. Their inability to stop the run was Green Bay’s Achilles heel in that game against the Seahawks. They allowed Seattle to run for 194 yards with Marshawn Lynch picking up 157 yards on 25 carries. The unit took a hit when they lost nose tackle B.J. Raji for the season but he’s expected to be fully healthy this fall.

The Packers upgraded their defense by picking cornerbacks Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins with their first two picks and added linebacker Jake Ryan in the fourth round. They are hoping these additions along with last year’s number one pick safety Ha’Sean Clinton-Dix will improve their overall defense.

There is no question the Packers are Super Bowl contenders. Quarterback Aaron Rogers may be the best gun slinger in the league. Green Bay can beat you in the air and on the ground. General Manager Ted Thompson is one of the best in the business and he’s done a great job addressing some of the Packers weaknesses on defense this off-season and made a great selection in the third round by adding Stanford receiver Ty Montgomery to a potent group of receivers.

The Packers led the league in scoring last season averaging 30.4 points per game. If the additions they made with their high draft picks the past two seasons develop this team has a very good chance of winning the Super Bowl. They open with four of their first six games at home. If Green Bay can win their first two games on the road against the Bears and at home against the Seahawks they have a great chance to start the season with a 6-0 record.

Chicago Bears

The Marc Trestman era was short lived in Chicago. Chicago fired the second-year coach after Trestman guided the team to a 5-11 record last season. The Bears went in a completely different direction this time by hiring veteran coach John Fox. They made a smart move grabbing Fox after four successful seasons in Denver. Fox is a detailed oriented coach that looks at all aspects of his team’s preparation.

QB Jay Cutler returns for his seventh season in Chicago and he was ranked 23rd in QBR ratings in 2014. His ability to make the right decision at the right time is non-existent. Many believe it will be a miracle if Fox is able to get this team into contention for a playoff spot with Cutler at the helm.

First year GM Ryan Pace quickly put his stamp on this franchise by trading All-Pro wide receiver Brandon Marshall in a surprise move. The Bears replaced Marshall by using their first round pick to select exceptional wide receiver Kevin White out of West Virginia. Chicago also added running back Jeremy Langford with their fourth round selection to compliment stud running back Matt Forte. They also solved a long-term problem at safety by signing free agent Antrel Rolle from the New York Giants.

Chicago definitely upgraded their talent in this year’s draft and through free agency. They selected athletic players in the draft in an effort to turn this franchise around. All six picks were from elite NCAA programs. Pace gets an “A” grade from me in his first NFL draft.

Fox will have this team playing better all-around football and you can count on them being well prepared for each game. If they can find a way to run the football and keep Cutler’s passing game to a minimum this team has a solid chance to improve on their 5-11 record. Look for this team to be ready for their opener at home against the Packers.

Minnesota Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a difficult year after running back Adrian Peterson was suspended for most of last season. Peterson recently agreed to return to the team despite what he felt was a lack of support from the Vikings during his legal problems. It will be interesting to see if he can regain his form at the advanced age of 30.

Minnesota improved to 7-9 last season after winning just five games in 2013. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is getting a lot of positive attention because of his improved completion rating at the end of last season. The numbers may not tell the whole storey because Bridgewater faced three teams that missed the playoffs during that stretch and threw for only 138 yards in a game against the Panthers. He is improving, but let’s see what happens against good teams in meaningful games.

I like what the Vikings did in the first three rounds of this year’s draft with the addition of three defensive players to an improving defense. They selected speedy cornerback Trae Waynes with their first pick linebacker Eric Kendricks to play with last year’s number one pick linebacker Anthony Barr in the second round and added defensive end Danielle Hunter with their third selection.

The Vikings spent a lot of high draft picks trying to build a dominant defense that will eventually put them into contention for a run at the Super Bowl. I am not sure if Bridgewater will ever be an elite quarterback, but if the defensive talent develops the way I think it should this team could contend for a playoff spot despite having the 12th most difficult schedule. The return of Peterson should help Bridgewater develop plus the acquisition of WR Mike Wallace from the Dolphins could help stretch the field.

Detroit Lions

Detroit made it to the playoffs last season and almost pulled off a first round upset against a very good Cowboys team. They took a big step backward when they were unable to resign Pro-Bowl defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.

It is going to be difficult for the Lions to make the playoffs this season after overachieving in 2014. The Lions are talented on defense but lack a front line starting quarterback. I never felt that overrated Matt Stafford was an elite quarterback and that was confirmed last season with his 22rd quarterback ranking last among quarterbacks that made the 2014 playoffs.

The Lions drafted well this year. They stole Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah in the second round. Abdullah is a game breaker and a difference maker. They also drafted offensive guard Laken Tomlinson in the first round to fill a pressing need on the offensive line and selected defensive tackle Gabe Wright in the fourth round to help fill the void left by the departure of Suh. They improved themselves through free agency by adding second tier players.

This team won 11 games last season. The Lions will be hard pressed to go 8-8 with their lack of production at the quarterback position and the huge loss of Suh. They start the season with three out of four games on the road and play the Broncos in their only home game during that stretch. I have seen over/under win totals of eight at some sportsbooks and it’s fair to say the oddsmakers seem to agree with my assessment of the Motor City club.

NFC South Breakdown
By Gary Bart
VegasInsider.com

The NFC South finished in an unusual way last season. The Carolina Panthers overcame a sluggish start to win the division with a 7-8-1 record. The Panthers became only the second team in NFL history to qualify for the playoffs with a losing record after playing a 16 game schedule.

The division also saw the preseason favorite New Orleans Saints miss the playoffs for the second time in three years, the third place 6-10 Atlanta Falcons fire their head coach and the last place 2-14 Buccaneers qualify for the first overall pick in this year’s draft.

Odds to win NFC East
New Orleans Saints 2/1
Carolina Panthers 2/1
Atlanta Falcons 2/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 15/2

NFC East Win Totals
New Orleans Saints - 9 (Over +120, Under -140)
Carolina Panthers - 8.5 (Over +105, Under -125)
Atlanta Falcons - 8 (Over -130, Under +110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6 (Over -110, Under -110)

Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina’s 2014 season can be looked at in a positive and negative way. They finished with a losing record, but were able to make the playoffs by winning their last four games of the regular season and won their first round playoff matchup against Arizona before showing some fight in a loss to Seattle in the Divisional round.

The Panthers defense impressed down the stretch. They allowed 10.75 points per game during their season ending four game winning streak and 12.17 PPG over their last six regular season games.

Carolina were above average on offense last season, led by four-year quarterback Cam Newton who has become a positive force with the Panthers. Newton’s 20th ranked quarterback rating does not tell the whole story. He was a big part of Carolina’s 7th ranked rushing offense, running for 539 yards and a 5.2 rushing average in 14 games.

The Panthers had five picks in this year’s draft. They used one of those selections to draft Michigan receiver Devin Funchess in the second round. Some experts had Funchess ranked as a possible first round pick, but his 4.7 second time in the 40 yard dash at the NFL combine seemed to be the reason why he fell to the Panthers in the second round. They used their first pick to select versatile linebacker/safety Shaq Thompson to shore up their defense and acquired free agent veterans Ted Ginn, Michael Oher and Alan Ball to fill key positions.

Despite having the 16th ranked offense in 2014 the Panthers scored over 30 points in nine different games. With the addition of Thompson to what I think should be a dominant defense, combined with the 6th easiest schedule in the league, Carolina should win this division for the second consecutive year.

New Orleans

New Orleans are coming off a disappointing 7-9 season. It was an unusual season for the Saints from an offensive and defensive perspective. They lead the league in total offense (411 YPG) and finished 31st on defense.

General Manager Mickey Loomis tried to address the team’s defensive issues by spending six of their nine draft choices on defensive players. The Saints made one of the biggest off-season trades when they acquired Seattle’s two-time Pro Bowl centre Max Unger and a first-round pick for star tight end Jimmy Graham and a fourth round selection. They signed free agent 2013 Pro Bowl running back C. J. Spiller who played with the Bills for the past five seasons and former Patriots free agent cornerback Brandon Browner to help improve the defense.

The Saints used Seattle’s first round pick to select Clemson linebacker Stephone Anthony and picked Colorado State quarterback Garrett Grayson in the third round. Although New Orleans are currently set at quarterback I think Grayson was one of the steals in this year’s draft. He threw for 4,006 yards with 32 touchdown passes against only seven interceptions in his senior year. With Drew Brees still a few years away from retirement the Saints can afford to be patient with their young quarterback.

It appears the Saints have decided to run a more balanced offense to take the pressure off their defense and Brees. The additions of Unger, Spiller and first round pick offensive tackle Andrus Peat should help them achieve this goal. If the offense can run the ball and if the defense improves the Saints should be in the mix for a playoff spot.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons had a 13-3 record in 2012 under head coach Mike Smith. The NFL is tough on coaches and after two consecutive losing seasons the Falcons replaced Smith with Seattle assistant coach Dan Quinn.

Quinn is walking into a pretty good situation. The Falcons have the league’s easiest schedule and general manager Thomas Dimitroff is coming off an excellent draft. Their first three selections are projected starters and could become impact players.

The Falcons moved quickly in the draft to upgrade their 32nd ranked defense by selecting Clemson star Vic Beasley at number eight overall. Beasley is an outstanding pass rusher and has a chance to become a Pro-Bowl player. Atlanta took cornerback Jalen Collins who dropped to the second round because of concerns surrounding a foot injury and three failed drug tests. Dimitroff was lucky to acquire Indiana running back Tevin Coleman in the third round. Colman was the second leading NCAA rusher in 2014 with 2,036 yards and I expect him to be the starting running back for the Falcons. Atlanta re-signed a number of free agents from last year’s team and added a few fringe free agents from other teams.

The Falcons are coming off a 6-10 season and I was not in agreement with the firing of Smith. Although he was 0-4 in playoff appearances, his 56-24 record during his first five seasons in Atlanta should have earned him another season as head coach.

Atlanta should be able to move the ball on a consistent basis. It will be interesting to see if they can stop anyone. They open at home against Philadelphia and then play back-to-back road games against the Giants and Dallas. If they can avoid being swept in their first three games they should contend for a playoff spot.

Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay finished last overall (2-14) in the NFL last season under first-year head coach Lovie Smith, which put them in position to draft the first overall pick in this year’s draft. There were early discussions about which quarterback the Buccaneers would select but that conversation ended when they drafted Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston first.

After selecting Winston the Buccaneers used both of their second round picks to protect him. The club went with Penn State offensive tackle Donovan Smith with their first pick of the second round and drafted Hobart & William Smith center Ali Marpet with the 61st overall selection. Tampa drafted two small targets for Winston in the fifth and sixth rounds to compliment veteran receiver Vincent Jackson and second-year stud Mike Evans. This team did not make a splash in free agency. They picked up a few players that may fill some of their needs. The Buccaneers will have to depend on their 2015 draft choices if they hope to improve on last year’s record.

Winston is not a slam dunk franchise impact player. His biggest problem is similar to his predecessor at Florida State E. J. Manuel. Both quarterbacks have accuracy issues with their mid-range throws. In addition to his accuracy problem Winston is trying to change his long throwing motion. This will be very difficult to accomplish and should have been taken into consideration by the Buccaneers scouting staff before making Winston the number one overall pick.

The Buccaneers did not make enough upgrades to compete for a playoff spot. I think they made a big mistake drafting Winston with the first overall pick. He was a risky selection because of his lack of accuracy, elongated throwing motion and off-field issues. I will be surprised if he becomes a frontline NFL quarterback and I expect him to struggle in his rookie season.

NFC West Breakdown
By Gary Bart
VegasInsider.com

The NFC West is one of the most interesting divisions in the NFL. Each team had at least one major change to their organization this offseason.

The Seahawks lost a number of key players and were involved in a blockbuster trade that involved the acquisition of New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham and a fourth round pick for veteran center Max Unger and Seattle’s first round pick. St. Louis sent former first overall pick in 2010 quarterback Sam Bradford to the Eagles for quarterback Nick Foles. Add to that the return of Carson Palmer to the Cardinals from a knee injury and this division has a lot of unanswered questions. Plus, San Francisco will be without Jim Harbaugh as coach and some key veterans across the board.

Odds to win NFC East
Seattle Seahawks 1/4
Arizona Cardinals 11/2
St. Louis Rams 7/1
San Francisco 49ers 25/1

NFC East Win Totals
Seattle Seahawks - 11 (Over -125, Under +105)
Arizona Cardinals - 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
St. Louis Rams - 8 (Over +140, Under -160)
San Francisco 49ers - 6 (Over -110, Under +100)

Listed below are my notes on all four teams and predicted order of finish.

Seattle Seahawks

Pete Carroll has guided the Seahawks to a 36-12 record during the past three regular seasons and came within a whisker of winning his second straight Super Bowl last season.

Seattle’s accomplishments have been remarkable. Unfortunately, there is a price to be paid for that success. Most people do not realize the physical toll a run to the Super Bowl places on a team. That toll is magnified for this team as a result of back to back appearances in the Super Bowl and the damage incurred by the loss of a number of starters through free agency and injury.

The Seahawks number one defense has been decimated by the loss of cornerback Byron Maxwell through free agency and defensive back Jeremy Lane to an ACL injury. Add to that the loss of defensive backs Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond last season and this team is vulnerable.

Seattle traded away their first round pick when they acquired tight end Jimmy Graham from the Saints. They drafted Michigan defensive end Frank Clark with the 63rd pick and added free agent cornerbacks Cary Williams and Will Blackmon to fill holes in their defensive backfield.

The Seahawks finished with a 12-4 record last season after getting off to a sluggish 3-3 start. They were talented enough to survive that slow start and make it to the Super Bowl. They will not have that luxury this season. With the fourth most difficult schedule, the loss of key players during the past two years and an improving division, I do not see this team making it to the Super Bowl for a third consecutive year.

St. Louis Rams

Jeff Fisher is entering his fourth season as head coach of the Rams with an unimpressive 20-27-1 record. St. Louis made a bold move in the off-season when they traded 2010 first overall pick quarterback Sam Bradford to the Eagles in exchange for Philadelphia’s starting quarterback Nike Foles.

The Rams had nine selections in this year’s draft. They used their first seven picks on offensive players including running back Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick. The offensive line was terrible last season. They addressed that issue by drafting offensive linemen with their 2nd, 3rd and 5th picks.

The Rams did not sign any impact players through free agency. They were able to re-sign their second leading receiver free agent Kenny Brit to a two-year deal and added depth to their defensive line with the signing of former Lions defensive tackle Nick Fairly.

St. Louis will be an interesting team to follow this season. They have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and have improved their offensive line. I am a Jeff Fisher fan. With the acquisition of Foles and an upgrade on the offensive line this team could surprise a few people.

Arizona Cardinals

What a job head coach Bruce Arians has done with the Cardinals. They are 21-11 in two seasons under Arians including a trip to the playoffs last season. He was able to get his team into the playoffs despite losing starting quarterback Carson Palmer for a good portion of last season with a knee injury.

The Cardinals had some interesting statistics. They were ranked 24th in overall offensive and defensive statistics and 24th in points scored.

Arizona needed to address their 31st ranked rushing attack. They accomplished this by drafting offensive tackle D.J. Humphries with their first round pick and Northern Iowa running back David Johnson with their third selection. They also signed 49ers free agent offensive guard Mike Lupati and Colts centre A. Q. Shipley to bolster their running attack.

The Cardinals invested heavily on defense. They used their 2nd, 3rd and 5th picks to select defensive ends and added four defensive players through free agency.

It is hard to tell what will happen with the Cardinals this season. Arians is a very good coach, but I am concerned with last year’s 24th rankings on offense, defense and points scored. I am not sure they have added enough pieces to improve in these areas. I also have concerns about starting quarterback Carson Palmer. He was having a very good season before his knee injury, but has been inconsistent throughout his career. Add this to the 5th hardest schedule, and I do not see this team matching last year’s win total.

San Francisco 49ers

Jim Harbaugh is out as head coach. He has been replaced by likeable 49ers assistant coach Jim Tomsula. Despite his success, the knock on Harbaugh was that he was too hard on his players.

The 49ers finished with an 8-8 record last season. There are questions surrounding starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s play. His quarterback rating was second highest in the league last season, but the 49ers finished 30th in overall passing statistics and 25th in points scored. There is no question that part of San Francisco’s problems last season were caused by a drop in Kaepernick’s performance.

San Francisco had the 5th ranked defense in 2014. That didn’t stop them from selecting defensive players with their first three picks in this year’s draft. The 49ers used their other seven selections to fill a number of holes including the addition of Clemson punter Bradley Pinion in the 7th round.

The 49ers have lost a number of players to retirement and veteran running back Frank Gore to free agency. They signed 11 free agents in the off-season including notable running back Reggie Bush to help replace Gore and Ravens wideout Torrey Smith.

This team has the third most difficult schedule in the league and they will be tested early. They open at home on Monday Night Football against Minnesota then travel to Pittsburgh and Arizona for their next two games before returning home to play Green Bay.

This team appears to be in big trouble. The recent loss of former first round draft pick Aldon Smith will make it difficult for this team to match last year’s win total.

AFC Betting Outlook
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Passer Rating Differential

In a passer-friendly league these days, it’s important to know that you win when you have a quarterback; you lose when you don’t.

According to ColdHardFacts.com, teams with great efficient QBs win games and teams with lousy, inefficient QBs lose games.

Want proof? Look no further than the fact that teams that won the battle of Passer Rating Differential (the difference between a team’s Offensive Passer Rating and Defensive Passer Rating) in 2014 went 218-36 (.858). Leading the pack was Green Bay, as the Packers Offensive Passer Rating was 109.88 while its Defensive Passer Rating was 82.05 – for a differential of 27.83.

AFC teams brought up the bottom of the barrel as Jacksonville, the NY.Y. Jets and Oakland ranked as the lowest rated teams at -27.05, -26.40 and -22.54 overall Passer Rating Differentials, respectively.

In order for the AFC to hold its own against the NFC the conference will need it’s signal callers to stand up and deliver.

Toe-to-Toe

Not so coincidentally, the AFC stands 120-138-1 SU and 123-127-9 ATS in non-conference clashes against the NFC the past four seasons.

They have gone 148-109-2 ‘Over’ in those games, including 91-61-2 ‘Over’ when playing as a dog.

Quick Outs

The AFC reigns supreme when it comes to point differential. In 2014 New England led the league in point differential +155. In 2013 the leader was Denver at +207. In 2012 it was New England, again, at +226.

The Indianapolis Colts led the league in dropped passes in 2014 with 40. The Oakland Raiders (33) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (32) round out the top three. The average Drops Percentage in the NFL 2014 season was 4.35.

It’s a passing league these days and with it the AFC owned the three worst rushing teams in the league in 2013, Baltimore (1,328), Jacksonville (1,260) and Pittsburgh (1,383). Not so coincidentally, all three teams miss the playoffs. Last year the AFC produced two of the three worst rushing squads, Oakland and San Diego – who also missed the playoffs.

AFC EAST

BUFFALO

TEAM THEME: 16 CANDLES... AND COUNTING
If you lit a candle depicting how long it’s been since Buffalo last made a playoff appearance (16 years), you’d be holding a torch. That being said, Bills savior and new owner Terry Pegula forked over $1.6 billion for the right to become only the second owner in Buffalo’s checkered 55-year history. When asked if he overpaid for the team, Pegula’s response was point-on: “I want to ask our fans if I overpaid, because I know what they're going to tell you." And with it comes changes aplenty, starting with new head coach Rex Ryan.

After taking the Jets to the AFC championship game in his first two seasons with the Flyboys, Rexy turned less sexy with New York fans, going just 26-38, while allowing nearly 24 PPG, thereafter. Still, strong offseason acquisitions including the likes of RB Sean McCoy, WR Percy Harvin, QB Matt Cassel and TE Charles Clay, helped offset a mediocre draft (no first-round pick). Thus, WR Sammy Watkins needs to quickly justify his being the No. 4 pick in last year’s draft. The biggest issue facing the new-look Bills is the quarterback position, which has been a black hole for this team since Hall of Famer Jim Kelly (the last Buffalo QB to win a playoff game) retired. Nonetheless, if Ryan – who knows this division even better than the bottom of his wife’s feet – can replicate his first two seasons with the Jets, the passing of the torch in Buffalo will be well worth it.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Fifteen of Buffalo’s last 24 losses have been by a touchdown or less.

MIAMI

TEAM THEME: SWEET NOTHINGS
Six years, $96 million dollars. It’s the price you pay for stability in the NFL these days. Even though he has never had a winning season, and had two years remaining on the back end of his rookie contract, QB Ryan Tannehill inked a $96 million contract extension with the Dolphins in the offseason. In a dizzying three months they turned over nearly half their starting lineup, signed Tannehill and Mike Pouncey to contract extensions and landed the year’s biggest free agent prize, Ndamukong Suh. And to help Tannehill and the Fish ascend, Miami reeled in free agent Pro Bowl TE Jordan Cameron and stud WR DeVante Parker in the first round of the draft. It’s what happens when your owner (Stephen Ross) has nothing to show for his investment and is willing to provide the financial wherewithal to make it happen.

And speaking of reeling it in, expect a breakout season from WR Jarvis Landry who switches from inside to outside receiver. Word is his improvement during the offseason has been dramatic. So, if you’re head coach Joe Philbin, with all this new and expensive talent on hand it all needs to happen now. Miami beat the sisters of the poor last season, going 5-1 versus losing teams while struggling at just 3-7 versus winning opposition. Luckily OC Bill Lazor is looked upon as a quarterback whisperer after delivering dramatic results with QBs Nick Foles and Tannehill in his first year with both Philadelphia and Miami. Let’s hope it’s not all smoke being blown into Ross’ ear.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Owners of a 42-5 September home record from 1970-2003, Miami has gone 8-15 since.

NEW ENGLAND

TEAM THEME: THE DEFLATRIOTS
As pointed out in our preview, the Patriots have been one of the most consistent teams over the last dozen years, winning six straight AFC East titles, and eleven of the last twelve overall, including a pair of Super Bowl victories. Unfortunately, the Deflategate scandal further smeared the reputation of this organization with Tom Brady suspended and the team fined $1M, while losing a No. 1 draft pick next year and a 4th-rounder in 2017. In addition, the loss of star CBs Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner cannot be underestimated. Not only is the secondary weakened, it’s also likely to have an impact on the wide receivers, who felt going up against the tandem every day in practice made them better. “It's been great for our receiving corps and (because of it) we're all better out there,” insists WR Danny Amendola.

Toss in NT Vince Wilfork’s departure and suddenly there are huge gaps to fill. RBs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley (nearly 100 rush attempts apiece last season) are also gone, leaving a significant hole in the backfield (look for Dion Lewis to fill one of the holes). If RB Jonas Gray wakes up in time, he will likely be teaming with suspended druggie LeGarrette Blount, leaving Brady holding a precarious hand. Thus, keeping stud TE Rob Gronkowski (averaged 11 TD passes in five seasons) is Priority One. Heck, if it weren’t the Patriots we’re talking about, this club would be in dire straits. Then again, it wouldn’t be a Bill Belichick team, would it?

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Patriots are 0-4 ‘In The Stats’ the last four games with the Jets, averaging 247 YPG.

NEW YORK JETS

TEAM THEME: EXTREME MAKEOVER
It’s safe to say the Jets enjoyed the best offseason of all AFC teams, and arguably the entire league. What else can you say after they landed CBs Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie, plus talented nickel-back Brian Skrine, in addition to WRs Brandon Marshall and Percy Harvin. It continued when DL Leonard Williams (USC) – said to be the best player in this year’s draft – fell into their lap with the sixth pick. Added to the mix was Ohio State star wide-out Devin Smith, the 37th selection in the draft. Indeed, it was quite a haul. But as is always the case, the success of new head coach Todd Bowles will go hand-in-hand with the play he gets from the quarterback position.

Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick figured to go toe-to-toe for starting honors (that’s not saying much), until Smith hit the canvas with a broken jaw in a scuffle a former teammate. Fortunately, new OC Chan Gailey has worked with Fitzpatrick in the past (Buffalo). Another concern is that no less than 16 new coaches will be entering their first season with the Jets – and that’s not counting Bowles. On the defensive front, Gang Green will be counting heavily on third-year iron man LB Demario Davis, one of four Jets defenders to log 32 starts the past two seasons. It’s been five years since Rex Ryan last led this team to the postseason. With a little luck of the Irish, Bowles may do it in one.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is 0-15 SU away vs. foes who ended the season with a winning record.

AFC NORTH

BALTIMORE

TEAM THEME: NOT SO AVERAGE JOE
Pro Bowl QB Joe Flacco, off arguably the best season of his NFL career in 2014, insists working with a fourth offensive coordinator in as many years is no big deal. This time it’s Marc Trestman, former Chicago Bears head coach. "I'm really excited about Marc being here," Flacco said last spring. "I think he's got a great mind. I think he does a great job in the meeting room. My conversations with him have gotten me excited." With Trestman aboard, and after losing WR Torrey Smith to free agency and TE Dennis Pitta to forced retirement, Baltimore’s first priority in the draft was to bolster its air corps.

That was accomplished with the selection of human rocket Breshad Perriman with the first pick, then trading up for TE Maxx Williams in the second round. As a result, Flacco was all smiles entering the OTA’s. You would be too after piloting the team to franchise records in total points (25.6) and yards (364.9) per game last season. Meanwhile, head coach John Harbaugh has been a symbol of success during his tenure with the Black Birds, averaging nearly 12 wins in seven years, with nary a losing season. And to his credit, he managed to make it to the AFC divisional round game year despite the fallout from the Ray Rice fiasco, thanks to a career-year (1,266 yards) from RB Justin Forsett. An 18-7 SU mark in head-to-head games against the NFC West – including 4-1 with Harbaugh – bodes well. Color them a legit threat to make it to Super Bowl 50.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: 30 of the Ravens’ 45 losses under John Harbaugh have been by a touchdown or less, including 10 times the last two years.

CINCINNATI

TEAM THEME: STRIPE HYPE
In the 2014 season the Bengals dealt heavily with the injury bug on the offensive side of the ball. Among others, they lost QB Andy Dalton’s No. 2 wide receiver in Marvin Jones (10 TD passes in 2013 – only five WRs scored more. Figuring to contribute this season with a now-healthy Jones is 2013 first-round pick TE Tyler Eifert, out the majority of last year. Along with star WR A.J. Green and added support from Mohamed Sanu, Denarius Moore and Brandon Tate, plus a boost from good-hands running back Giovanni Bernard, these cats once again have an air attack that would make most head coaches envious. And speaking of Dalton, his 40-23-1 record in the NFL is rock solid, to say the least. It’s his 0-4 mark in the playoffs that leaves the 96 million-dollar-man scratching his head.

To make matters worse, the Red Rifle’s numbers regressed last season, albeit largely due to the aforementioned loss of Eifert and Jones. Cincy has added much needed depth to the OL with the addition of Cedric Ogbeuhi and Jake Fisher with their top two picks in this year’s draft. Meanwhile, second year RB Jeremy Hill fits run-loving OC Hue Jackson’s playbook like a glove. The Achilles heel may be its defense, one that slipped 60 YPG last season. The optimistic return of stud LB Vontaze Burfict (microfracture surgery) is a key to a turnaround. It may sound like press-release hype but the fact is it would be a shock if the Bengals do not only improve on last year’s 10-win effort but also... drum roll, please... win a playoff game!

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: It’s been 24 years since the Bengals last won a playoff game – the longest in the league.

CLEVELAND

TEAM THEME: QB-PALOOZA
After a 7-4 start under new head coach Mike Pettine last season, it was looking like sunny skies had finally found their way to the north coast. And then faster than you can say nor’easter, the heavens turned black when the Browns lost all-star C Alex Mack and proceeded to drop their final five games of the season. In the process, Cleveland cycled through three more starting quarterbacks, making it 10 the last five years and a total of 23 starting signal callers since their rebirth 16 years ago. As stoked up as Browns fans were when the team announced the selection of Heisman Trophy winning Johnny Manziel in the first round of last year’s draft, it proved to be simply another letdown: Manziel himself was more stoked than most realized when he headed off to rehab at the conclusion of the season.

Gone is QB Brian Hoyer, the hometown star who just happened to own the only winning record (10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS) as a starting Cleveland quarterback since Vinny Testaverde (1993-95). So does recycled QB Josh McCown – 1-10 as a starter with Tampa Bay last season – step in and pick up where Hoyer left off, or does a clear-headed Johnny Smoke take over and capitalize on a super-soft three game season-opening set (foes 9-39 last year) and win the fans back? Stay tuned. Meanwhile, re-cycled WR’s Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline come aboard. The hope is a star-studded draft, headlined with NT Danny Shelton and RB Duke Johnson (the talk of minicamp), should pay dividends sooner than later.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Browns are 1-15 SU the last two years without QB Brian Hoyer.

PITTSBURGH

TEAM THEME: CAPSULIZING
If you don’t agree with us that the best acquisition the Steelers made during the offseason last year was the signing of OL coach Mike Munchak, then think again. After having been sacked 386 times in his 10-year NFL career – or an average of 2.64 times per game started – Ben Roethlisberger hit the deck just 2.24 times per game last season. As a result, Pittsburgh’s offense spiked 71 YPG when the Black-and-Gold ended a two-year playoff hiatus. This season they must endure a three-game suspension of stoner RB Le’Veon Bell (pot), meaning he’ll be out the entire month of September.

The hope is 32-year old RB DeAngelo Williams has enough oxygen left in the tank to fill the gap. On the other side of the ball the defense loses Hall of Fame DB Troy Polamalu, along with CB Ike Taylor and LB Jason Worilds, all to retirement. In addition, longtime DC Dick LeBeau has departed, leaving the Steel Curtain in distress. If the picture we’re painting seems fuzzy, it’s because it is. The good news is the long-in-the-tooth Steelers are clearing cap space – $8.2M this year as opposed to 998K last season – and Big Ben has been signed to a long-term deal. At least for now the Steelers can make clear football decisions, instead of worrying how many players they must cut to clear enough cap room.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Roethlisberger is 17-3 SU in his NFL career games played in Ohio.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON

TEAM THEME: BOUNCE HOUSE
After winning the stats by 29 YPG in 2013, yet losing 14 games in the process, the call went out to Bill O’Brien to get Houston back to the playoff. Despite slipping in the stats on both sides of the ball, O’Brien’s bunch came tantalizingly close to returning to the postseason. And therein lies the rub. It’s not often a team slips statistically as Houston did in 2014, yet improves dramatically both SU and ATS – which by definition makes them prime ‘play against’ material the next season. Granted, we admire the fact the Texans outyarded each of their final five opponents to finish the season but closer inspection reveals that three of the contests were against division lightweights Jacksonville and Tennessee.

Meanwhile, former Browns QB Brian Hoyer comes in to battle former Patriots castoff Ryan Mallet, with Hoyer holding the edge having worked under O’Brien at New England. And since the quality of the quarterback position largely determines the outcome of a season, the Texans could be in trouble. Especially with former stud WR Andre Johnson in a new huddle, leaving talented DeAndre Hopkins and 3rd round steal Jaelen Strong to carry most of the wide receiver weight. The loss of star RB Arian Foster (groin) for the first half of the campaign is especially crippling for and offense looking to find an identity. A healthy Jadeveon Clowney, along with Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt, could make the defense imposing. Still, with HBO’s HARD KNOCKS focusing on their every move this preseason, a bounce looks to be in order this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Texans have suffered 13 losses by a TD or less the last two seasons, including six by a FG or less.

INDIANAPOLIS

TEAM THEME: GREATEST SHOE ON EARTH
It was fun while it lasted, picking on the Colts and their smoke-and-mirrors winning efforts the previous two years. But after drawing the league’s easiest – or 2nd easiest – strength of schedule each of the past three years, it appears the Colts are ready to go toe-to-toe with the Big Boys in 2015. A 33-5 SU mark at home in division play since 2002 bodes well. As does the fact they will face only four foes this season that made the playoffs last year. In a sign of Super Bowl or bust, the offseason additions of WR Andre Johnson (34 years old) and RB Frank Gore (32 years old) look good on paper, but age could be a factor. Consider: in the NFL's 95-year history, there have been only 46 instances of a 1,000-yard season by a running back who is at least 30 years old. Worse, only four times has it happened for one older than 32, and not once since 1984.

The real strength of the team, however, is QB Andrew Luck who is a jaw-dropping 14-1 SUATS off a loss – meaning he’s lost back-to-back contests only one time. And then there’s Chuck Pagano, Indy’s underrated head coach, who himself is 12-1 SU and 11-1-1 ATS in games off a spread loss. They are also ecstatic over selecting WR Phillip Dorsett at No. 29 overall in this year’s NFL Draft. “He looks really good,” Pagano raved. “He’s really fast. He’s got really good hands. He’s really smart.” (FYI: the Colts led the league in dropped passes, 50, last year). Yep, he’s Andrew Luck’s kind of guy – and the QB agrees that Dorsett fits in very, very well. Behind an improving defense, its no wonder Indianapolis OC Pep Hamilton has dubbed the Colts the “Greatest Shoe on Earth.” It’s a moniker the iconic helmets can finally live up to... provided Luck can snap a dizzying 0-4 SUATS career mark against the Patriots.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Colts are 12-1 SU and 11-1-1 ATS when playing on Thursdays.

JACKSONVILLE

TEAM THEME: HOP ON THE BUS, GUS
The news from rookie minicamp was not good: the Jaguars suffered a crushing blow when LB Dante Fowler, the third selection in this year’s NFL Draft, tore his left ACL. Still, all is not lost. Jacksonville had the sixth most sacks in the league last year without Fowler and have added former Miami Dolphins DL Jared Odrick – who many believe is set for a breakout season in 2015. Fowler can now learn behind Sen’Drick Marks (12.5 sacks the last two seasons) and Chris Clemons (8 sacks and 4 forced fumbles last year). Ironically, Marks tore his ACL three seasons ago before developing into an elite pass rusher. In addition, the Jags may have landed the biggest gem of the draft when Ohio State DT Michael Bennett fell to them in the sixth round. And then there is the offense where, come hell or high water, Blake Bortles is their quarterback.

Last year’s third overall pick was the worst QB in the league statistically but Bortles has shown enough promise and leadership that the feeling is he has nowhere to go but up this season. After two years of finishing 31st in total offense under Jedd Fisch, new OC Greg Olsen can only hope to lead this offense up the ladder. The hope is former Alabama star and rookie RB T.J. Yeldon – the third running back in this year’s draft – will help kick-start an attack that has failed to gain 300 YPG each of the last four seasons. And word from camp is former starting RB Toby Gerhart is healthy and turning heads. Should that happen, Jags fans will be riding the victory bus with Gus.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Jaguars have been favored in only one of their last 44 games.

TENNESSEE

TEAM THEME: MATH WHIZ
Ken Whisenhunt’s first year with the Titans was not a good one as no team in the league won fewer games. Enter the newest savior: Marcus Mariota, last year’s Heisman Trophy winning quarterback from Oregon. Recognizing an apparent need for instant offense, Whiz immediately surrounded the deceptive Duck with plenty of help at the wide receiver position, bringing in Hakeem Nicks and Harry Douglas while also drafting Dorial Green-Beckham. Word in camp is Marriotta has taken control of the huddle and is further along than they thought he would be. “I think there is good reason to be really excited about him,” said Whisenhunt. Let the experiment begin. Meanwhile, an experienced OL returns five linemen who each started at least five games last season.

New assistant head coach Dick LeBeau will be in charge of the defense. As David Climer of the Tennessean.com best put it, “LeBeau is in the same union as Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy. He shows up in the middle of the night and delivers great defense while we’re sleeping.” His defenses have earned five No. 1 rankings and he owns two Super Bowl rings with the Steelers. It’s said he makes average players good, good players great, and great players elite. See Joey Porter, James Harrison and Troy Polamalu for prime examples. The free agent additions of LBs Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan should be a terrific fit. LeBeau’s hire was not only a no-brainer but a coup for a 2-14 team whose defense was ranked 27th in the NFL last year. It all adds up to a huge step forward.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger went 14-1 when Ken Whisenhunt was the Steelers OC.

AFC WEST

DENVER

TEAM THEME: KOOB JOB
As mind-boggling as it seems, after averaging more than 12 wins a season with Denver, the Broncos sent head coach John Fox packing. Enter Gary Kubiak, former head Houston boss who averaged less than 8 wins per season in just under eight years with the Texans. While we may not own a masters degree from MIT, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to call that a mysterious move. However, a deeper look shows Kubiak, an OC for the Broncos from 1995-2005 and Texas High School Hall of Fame inductee, was twice named to the all-state football, basketball, baseball and track teams.

He played his entire nine-year NFL career as a backup for John Elway, and thus the two are re-united once again. Kubiak owns three Super Bowl rings, two more than his star QB Peyton Manning, who winds down a brilliant Hall of Fame career having won 40 of 53 games for the Broncos. It should also be noted that Kubiak mentored quarterbacks John Elway and Joe Montana in their NFL careers. With 40 wins in the last three seasons, and behind a defense that improved leaps and bounds in 2014 en route to outstatting 13 of its final 15 foes, it appears Peyton is in prime position to write a winning epitaph. So the question begs: Is Gary Kubiak the man for the job in Denver? John Elway thinks so. Retaining WR Demaryius Thomas for the long run was huge, but rest assured, this team is going as far as Manning takes them.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Gary Kubiak is 0-8 ATS in his NFL career in Game Five of the season.

KANSAS CITY

TEAM THEME: CHARLES CHIPS
After taking over a 2-14 squad in 2013 and compiling 20 wins in two seasons, Andy Reid is riding high in Kansas City these days. Sure, he’s yet to win a playoff game, but then again the Chiefs are 0-8 SUATS in postseason play dating back to 1994. And on a side-bar note, speaking of non-regular season games, this just in: KC has struggled mightily in preseason play, too, going 9-34-1 SU and 7-36-1 ATS in its last 44 exhibition games. It’s safe to say the Chiefs’ absence from the playoffs last year – despite winning ten games – was largely attributable to the dramatic drop in numbers by feature running back Jamaal Charles. Playing through an injury-riddled season, Charles amassed nearly 700 fewer combined yards while catching 30 fewer passes.

One has to figure if Charles chips in with a better effort in 2015 that Kansas City’s season-ending woes under Reid (4-8 SUATS during the final six games of the regular season) might be a thing of the past. The addition of ex-Philadelphia WR Jeremy Maclin was an upgrade over departed Dwayne Bowe. Coupled with speedy 3rd round pick, 6-foot-2 WR Chris Conley (4.35 speed with 45-inch vertical jump), they figure to aid QB Alex Smith, whose 18 TDs and 6 INTs last year equated into a rock-solid 93.4 QB Rating. Heck, they may even snag a TD pass this season (none by Chiefs’ wide-outs in all of 2014). The return to health of star CB Eric Berry is a strong shot in the arm for the defense. Once again the pieces are in place. The rest is up to Andy.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 16-0 SU with rest versus sub .888 opponents.

OAKLAND

TEAM THEME: KEYS TO A NEW CARR
New but re-cycled head coach Jack Del Rio joins the Raiders, a team that has suffered 10 double-digit loss seasons the last eleven years. Also aboard is new OC Bill Musgrave, who spent the last two seasons working with Chip Kelly in Philadelphia. Musgrave’s up-tempo offense should suit rising QB Derek Carr – who thrived in a no-huddle attack at Fresno State – just fine. Carr, though, will need to improve on his atrocious 5.5 yards-per-attempt mark, one of the worst in NFL history. To do so, Alabama’s Amari Cooper, the best wide receiver in this year’s NFL Draft, was taken with the fourth overall pick. Cooper may also end up being the best player selected – he’s that good.

With the addition of Michael Crabtree, Carr now has the tools to work with. In addition, Oakland is expecting big things from third round draft pick TE Clive Walford (Miami, FL). The loss of RB Darren McFadden to the Cowboys marks the end of a failed project as health issues hampered his high hopes. Likely-to-explode RB Latavius Murray showed big-play potential last season and will step in for McFadden. The bottom line, though, is this team will go as far as its young defense carries them. Del Rio is a defensive specialist and having LB Khalil Mack as his anchor is a strong starting point.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Raiders are 1-11 SUATS vs. foes off a pair of losses by 7 or more points each.

SAN DIEGO

TEAM THEME: DIAMONDS ON THE SOLES OF THEIR SHOES
What appeared to be a messy divorce in the making turned into good news for the Chargers in 2015 when they managed to ink QB Philip Rivers to a lucrative long-term deal. And while it appeared that the loss of OC Ken Whisenhunt last year was unsettling (Diego dipped 39 YPG on offense in 2014), San Diego’s 9-win effort last season fell right in line with the fact the Chargers’ record has now regressed each year eight times in a row since 1982 after winning 10 or more games the previous season. So what can we expect in 2015? They will certainly need Rivers to improve on a 55.8 QBR on passes 10 yards or fewer. He finished seventh in the league in the same category en route to a 10-win playoff effort in 2013. It’s called taking what the defense gives you, a trait his AFC West counterpart Peyton Manning does best.

Meanwhile, San Diego lost RB Ryan Mathews to the Eagles and WR Eddie Royal to the Bears in free agency, but managed to acquire WR Stevie Johnson. First round draft pick RB Melvin Gordon of Wisconsin will be counted on to fill Mathews’ shoes. The loss of star TE Antonio Gates – Rivers’ security blanket - for the first month of the season (drugs) is a bummer. But as far as Rivers’ separation papers from the Chargers were concerned, it was Zsa Zsa Gabor who put divorce in the best light when she said, “I have never hated a man enough to give his diamonds back.” Safe to say, Rivers now walks with diamonds on the soles of his shoes.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Philip Rivers is 31-9 SU during the month of December in his NFL career.

NFC Betting Outlook
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Last Year Was The First Time

According to Athlon Sports, the NFL set a record number of firsts throughout the 2014 season. Listed among the tally on the NFC ledger, last year was the first time a team...

• from the NFC South won its division for s second straight season (Carolina)

• lost at least nine of its first 10 games for a third consecutive season (Jacksonville)

• allowed an opposing QB to complete 80% of its passes and throw for three TDs in the threes games of a season (Chicago)

• rushed for 355 yards in a game and lost (San Francisco)

• opened the season 3-0 despite trailing by double-digits in each game (Philadelphia)

• blew a fourth-quarter lead as large as 10 points and lost a Super Bowl (Seattle)

Falling Asleep At The Wheel

Speaking of last year, rested teams in the NFC performed at a poor rate last season, going just 7-15 SU and 6-16 ATS overall, including the post season.

They were particularly disturbing as dogs (0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS) and when playing in games off a loss (2-10 SUATS).

NFC underdogs with rest are currently on a 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS overall run in their last fourteen games.

Note: team write-ups are excerpts from the 2015 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine, on sale at newsstands nationwide and available on the Playbook App in the iTunes, Google Play, and Amazon stores.

NFC EAST

DALLAS

TEAM THEME: LESSON LEARNED
Dallas was depth shy at the linebacker position last year, forcing the Cowboy 'D' to use their nickel package 66 percent of the time. In 2014, according to ProFootballFocus.com, only 34 linebackers of the non-pass rushing variety played at least 75 percent of their team's defensive snaps. None was a Cowboy. It's because they deployed two or fewer linebackers 70 percent of the time. Depth shy and open to doubt at best, Dallas went on an offseason linebacker quest that made an Easter egg hunt look like a visit to Hens "R" Us. As a result, they now have twelve LBs on the roster, more than any position group on the team. Leading tackler Sean Lee, out with an ACL injury last year, returns to help fortify the spot. Should the Cowboys reap the reward and bolster last year's vastly improved defense, they will certainly be a load, especially if risky sack master Greg Hardy can stay on the field. Furthermore, you have to love the fact that Dallas walked into this year's draft with one first round pick and left with three (that's impressive). And five of Dallas' first six picks in this year's draft, and seven of last year's nine selections, were of the defensive variety. Factor in a $100 million quarterback, 35-year old Tony Romo, who led the league in passer rating (113.2) and completion rate (69.9%) in 2014 and it's appearing more and more as if America's team is suddenly a well-balanced machine despite the loss of RB DeMarco Murray to the Eagles. And arguably the best offensive line in the league padded its contention with the signing of LSU stud OL La'el Collins. It's safe to say the Cowboys don't shy away from welcoming troubled players. With back-to-back games against teams with winning records in 2014, it prompted Romo to go so far as to state, "We're going to win the Super Bowl. I want to win a championship so bad." Heck, they even blew the doors off their annual December disappearing act last year. What a difference a new mindset makes.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys are 8-21 ATS as home favorites under Jason Garrett, including 1-9 ATS when favored by 7 or more.

NEW YORK GIANTS

TEAM THEME: WIN OR ELSE
Following their last playoff appearance, a Super Bowl victory over New England in 2012, the Giants missed out on postseason play for the third consecutive year. Thus, when asked if 2015 is a win-or-else season for the G-Men, team President Wellington Mara's reply was, "I do not think that is an unfair statement." After hearing of the boss' assessment, 69-year old head coach Tom Coughlin's first course of action was to call on 2007 Super Bowl winning DC Steve Spagnuolo to fix a declining defense, one still uncertain about the status of Pro Bowl DL Jason Pierre-Paul and his amputated right finger (fireworks). Spags will be counting heavily on a draft that landed S Landon Collins (Alabama) and DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa (UCLA). On the other side of the ball, a spotty offensive line should be aided with the selection of first round pick OT Ereck Flowers (Miami Fla) and the continued development of 2013 first round pick Justin Pugh. The big news, though, is the return of electrifying WR Victor Cruz, who was limited to six games due to a knee injury last season. Teamed with rapidly budding star Odell Beckham Jr., they give QB Eli Manning a potentially lethal pair of targets. Manning rebounded from a rotten 2013 season by completing 63.1 percent of his passes for 30 TDs and 14 INTs and a 92.1 QB Rating in 2014. Like Pierre-Paul, we're not pointing fingers but with the new directive in place, look for Big Blue to rise to the challenge in 2015. After all they are the only team to beat Tom Brady and the Patriots in the Super Bowl and they did it twice.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Giants are 15-2 ATS as dogs vs. the AFC East, including 11-0 when taking more than 3 points.

PHILADELPHIA

TEAM THEME: BOTH HANDS ON THE WHEEL
Chip Kelly's trade of RB LeSean McCoy may have rankled many of the veterans on the Eagles squad, but after winning 10 games and failing to make the playoffs last year he could care less. Also gone is QB Nick Foles. The replacements include QB Sam Bradford, and RBs DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, who join Darren Sproles in the backfield. Playing time at wide receiver will be up for grabs with veterans Riley Cooper and Miles Austin looking to fend off Brad Smith, Nelson Agholor (a draft steal) and Josh Huff. On the defensive side of the ball, stud LB Kiko Alonso and former Seattle DB Byron Maxwell are rock-solid additions. And the there's Tim Tebow who, if he makes the cut, will likely serve as the team's designated 2-point machine. For all the rumors and reports of Kelly wanting to hock the future for QB Marcus Mariota, it never materialized. The lure was there, for sure. "We examined it," Kelly said. But contrary to all the gossip, Kelly said it was a trade the Eagles couldn't afford. "We drove into a very nice neighborhood and saw an unbelievable house, but when we found out the price of the house we stayed in the car, never even got out of the car." As a result, considering the financial investment and what the Eagles gave up to get him, Bradford - who hasn't taken a snap in the NFL since October 2013 - will be the man behind center. Meanwhile, like his team, the frenetic Kelly never tires or quits trying. The biggest advantage Philadelphia inherits this season is they will travel the fewest miles of all NFL teams this season (only one game outside the Eastern time zone). The largest obstacle they must overcome in 2015: Since 1970 eight teams have replaced their #1 QB, RB and WR from one year to the next. Only one had a winning season. Gulp.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chip Kelly is 23-2 SU away versus either NFL division or college conference foes in his career.

WASHINGTON

TEAM THEME: THE HOGS ARE SQUEALING AGAIN
The clock strikes twelve for Redskin QB Robert Griffin III this season. He needs to deliver the goods it's just that simple. After a 10-7 rookie season, RG3's Hogs have gone just 7-25 the past two seasons. In preparation, new Washington GM Scot McCloughan is revitalizing a smash-mouth offensive line mentality, making RT Brandon Scherff the fifth pick of the draft before selecting Alabama OG Arie Kouandio and South Florida C Austin Reiter. "Just get back to the old days the ground-and-pound football, which will open up the passing lanes. I think that's what they want to start doing," said Scherff. Impressed with their draft was ESPN analyst Todd McShay, who went on to say, "I'd be surprised if we look back three years from now and they don't have a minimum of three good, solid starters from this class." Thus, an emphasis by the Redskins running the ball, and not Griffin carrying the ball, should lead to more effective play-action passes. In addition McCloughan revamped the defensive line (nickname: "Capital Punishment") and secondary as well. McCloughan also revamped the defensive line (nickname: "Capital Punishment") and secondary as well. However, the loss of LB Brian Orakpo is a major blow. For it all to work, though, the real RG III will need to surface. After watching Kirk Cousins struggle last year, Washington opted to use its fifth-year option in Griffin, meaning he is under contract through next season. The Hogs will also need leading contributions from WR DeSean Jackson and RB Alfred Morris. And if TE Jordan Reed (missed 12 games the last two seasons) can stay healthy there will be no more faking it in the nation's capital (an oxymoron if ever there was one). It's time to stand and deliver.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Redskins last won an Eastern Division title in 1999.

NFC NORTH

CHICAGO

TEAM THEME: FOX ON THE RUN
When fans clamored for Lovie Smith's head, and management brought in Marc Trestman to man the sidelines, little did they know that trading-in is not always trading-up. The Trestman experiment ended after two brief years in which the Bears averaged 6.5 wins per season. With only six winning seasons since 1996, the call went out for a veteran head coach who has taken seven teams to the playoffs, including four times the last four years, with two Super Bowl appearances. Enter coach whisperer John Fox, who was unceremoniously dropped by Denver and brings in what ESPN analyst Louis Riddick calls a star-studded coaching staff, headed with OC Adam Gase and DC Vic Fangio (directed the 49ers defense to three straight NFC Championship games). Gase will be counted on to revive QB Jay Cutler's southbound-and-down career, one that has seen the $18M a year bust go just 61-58 SU and 45-71-2 ATS in his NFL career. Based on numbers like those, it's astonishing to learn Cutler actually earns more than Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck and Eli Manning. The potential loss No. 7 draft pick, WR Kevin White, to a leg stress fracture could prove devastating, especially with Brandon Marshall now with the Jets. Defensively, the Bears have fielded the worst stop-unit in in a century of Chicago football the past two seasons. Finally, remember this: new HC Fox is money on the division road, where he is 28-11 SUATS in his NFL career, including 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS the last four years (all with Denver), and 14-3 SUATS from Game Twelve out. Now let's see how Cutler plays into the equation.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bears went 5-for-5 in two-point conversion attempts last year, the highest success rate in the NFL.

DETROIT

TEAM THEME: THE ROAR IS GONE
Hmmm. Head coach Jim Caldwell has long been looked upon as a quarterback guru, having worked with Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco and others. Thus, it was expected his influence on Matthew Stafford would help take the talented signal-caller to the next level. Not so last year when Stafford's season-ending 85.7 QB rating ranked below the likes of Kyle Orton, Mark Sanchez and Charlie Whitehurst. While it was an improvement over Stafford's previous two years, it's hardly headline news. What did happen, though, was an 11-win season, the second-best in franchise history. It's not what you'd expect from a team that slipped 5 full points and 49 YPG offensively from 2013. The talk in camp is that rookie RB Ameer Abdullah is something special. "He's quick as a cat," said Jets head coach Todd Bowles after scrimmaging and taking on Detroit this preseason. He's about as quick as Barry Sanders." Where the Lions roared was on defense behind the league's second ranked unit. With Lion Kings Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley plugging the middle, Detroit owned the loop's best rush defense, surrendering a mere 70 RYPG or less than half of what the porous Browns allowed. Rather than build on that foundation, the Lions were forced to wheel and deal when both Suh and Fairley opted out for larger dollars. In a stopgap measure, DT Haloti Ngata was acquired from the Ravens and DT Tyrunn Walker (one NFL career start) was signed as a free agent. They certainly won't counter the loss of the dynamic duo, but watch out should Stafford ever get his act together, and ought rookie Abdullah (Nebraska) continue to impress. After all most people forget this team, behind the No. 2 ranked defense in the league, led Dallas, 20-7, in the 3Q in last year's 24-20 playoff loss before a questionable call sent the Cowboys on to Green Bay.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Despite going 22-27 the past three seasons, the Lions were 32-17 ITS in those games.

GREEN BAY

TEAM THEME: THREE-MINUTE WARNING
The offense is good. Real good. And when you return all 11 players from a unit that led the NFL in scoring last season, it quickly becomes the recipe for another prosperous campaign. And although you don't mess with success Green Bay will run its same no-huddle offense the team is turning the keys over to former quarterbacks coach Tom Clements who, as its new associate head coach of offense, will take over play-calling duties from Mike McCarthy (first time McCarthy won't call plays since becoming head coach in 2006). If they were a college football squad we'd be lauding the return of all 11 starters sans WR Jordy Nelson to an ACL this preseason - including the best QB in the game (Aaron Rodgers). If only the defense had as much talent. Hit hard in free agency, the Packers stop-unit replenished itself through the draft and must now stand and deliver. Can they depend on 35-year old Julius Peppers to make an impact, along with their best pass rusher Clay Matthews moving to inside linebacker? The good news is nose tackle B.J. Raji returns after missing last season with a biceps injury. In his stead, Letroy Guion filled in starting all 16 games, recording career-high 3.5 sacks. And DC Dom Capers will not get outcoached too many times. And remember, like the Cardinals, the Cheeseheads will take on an NFC-high 3 teams that will be coming off a Monday night game this campaign. FYI: GB is 11-1 SU and 10-2 the last five years against foes that played their previous game on a Monday night. Just three minutes removed from going to the Super Bowl before crashing spectacularly in an OT loss to the Seahawks last season (the devastating loss of Jordan aside), makes us Packer-backers in 2015.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Rodgers is 32-9 SU and 29-12 ATS in division games, including 13-1 SUATS off a spread loss.

MINNESOTA

TEAM THEME: WATER UNDER THE BRIDGE
It was largely a surprise when the Vikings passed Louisville WR DeVante Parker with the 11th pick in this year's draft. After all, they lost WR Gregg Jennings to free agency and the move would have reunited Parker with his former Cardinal QB Teddy Bridgewater, who broke onto the NFL scene by completing 64.4% of his passes for 14 TDs in his rookie year with Minnesota last season. They opted instead for CB Trae Waynes of Michigan State, as Mike Zimmer continues to put the emphasis on defense. And it worked last year when the Vikes improved 9 points and 53 yards per game in Zimmer's first season as a head coach in the league. Besides, Minnesota had earlier acquired speedy WR Mike Wallace from Miami, thus allowing the team to stock up on three more talented defensive players with its first three picks in the draft. (And this added sidebar: fifth-round WR/PR Stefon Diggs of Maryland has been highly impressive in camp.) Along with recent first round picks including DB Harrison Smith, DT Shariff Floyd, CB Xavier Rhodes and LB Anthony Barr the defense has become the strength of the squad. Now that star RB Adrian Peterson and the Vikings appear to have resolved their differences, there is still a huge hurdle the 'switchback' must overcome. Namely: in the NFL's 95-year history, there have been only 46 cases of a 1,000-yard season recorded by a running back who is at least 30 years old. Couple that with a tough first-half schedule (won't a face a team with a losing record in 2014 until November 1), Mike Zimmer's target to make the playoffs in 2016 just may sty right on track.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Vikings are 11-2 ATS in their last thirteen games in December.

NFC SOUTH

ATLANTA

TEAM THEME: RETURN OF THE GRITS BLITZ
It's our feeling the hire of former Seattle DC Dan Quinn should go down as one of the better moves in Atlanta Falcons football history. And you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know why. A downhill decline on the defensive side of the ball each of the last three years says it all. Hence, after narrowly missing the playoffs for a second straight year despite an appalling 6-10 record in 2014, Quinn's services were secured. Looking to clean up the league's worst ranked defense, he went to work immediately securing LB Vic Beasley (very impressive minicamp) and CB Jalen Collins with the Falcons' top two picks in the draft. Behind an elite aerial attack orchestrated by QB Matt Ryan and new OC Kyle Shanahan, expect Atlanta to get back to the playoffs in 2015. Don't laugh the Falcons tackle the c0-cushiest schedule in the league with half of their opponents sporting losing records last year (Atlanta's average opponent Super Bowl odds a super-soft 19.56-to-1, same as Indianapolis). Five of their six wins last season came in division play and they face the NFC East in its entirety for the first time in three years. And as fate would have it, the last time Atlanta played the NFC East they swept the division en route to an NFC Championship game appearance in 2012. Looking back, Matty Ice has completed over 66% of his passes the past two seasons while tossing 54 TD passes. Imagine what he might suddenly accomplish with a defense.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: QB Matt Ryan is 7-0 SUATS in home openers, but only 1-6 SUATS in road openers, with the Falcons.

CAROLINA

TEAM THEME: BLACK PANTHER PARTY
Sneer at them all you want. After making it to the playoffs with a losing record last season, the Panthers only the second team in NFL history to do so are thirsting for more. You would be too if you closed out the season in the dominant fashion Carolina did last year, outyarding each of its final eight foes, including stat wins in BOTH of its playoff games. While an 8-9-1 record may not appear impressive on the surface, victories in five of its final six games certainly were. Granted, seven of the nine losses were by 14 or more points but there is no refuting the fact that the Panthers' defense held three of their final seven opponents to season-low yardage and 10 of 11 starters return. Like it or not, the black and blue wrecking crew became the first team ever to repeat as NFC South division champs last season. The offseason signing of blindside OT Michael Oher, and the drafting of Michigan WR Devin Funchess promises to make Cam Newton a happy man (that and a new $103.8 million contract), the loss of star WR Kelvin Benjamin (ACL) aside. With it all Newton is on record vowing to make the Panthers the No. 1 ranked offense the NFL. "And I'm not just blowing smoke," contends Newton. Oh, and for what it's worth... the only other team in the league to win its division with a losing record was Seattle (7-9) in 2010. And we all know what the Seahawks went on to become. Should the Panthers pick up where they left off last season, they'll be partying hearty in Charlotte this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Panthers are 0-6 SUATS when playing with rest under head coach Ron Rivera.

NEW ORLEANS

TEAM THEME: BRING BACK THE BEIGNETS
It was a big pill to have to swallow. The Saints, in total rebuilding mode, were cap-strapped and needed to free up room. Trading away all-Pro Bowl TE Jimmy Graham and WR Kenny Stills are big losses. And while the trading of Graham appeared to be head scratching, New Orleans did receive one of the best centers in the league (Max Unger) and Seattle's No. 1 pick in this year's draft (LB Stephone Anthony of Clemson). But offensively it's potentially an enormous loss for New Orleans. Newly acquired RB C.J. Spiller will team with Mark Ingram to form the ground attack. And while QB Drew Brees figures to be operating behind a vastly improved offensive line, WRs Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks (an excellent offseason) will be counted on to carry a heavy load. The defense was hit hard with injuries in 2014 and as a result slipped 83 yards and 7 points per game. New CB Brandon Browner was a great addition and six defensive players taken in this year's draft figure to contribute right away, including 2nd round OLB Hau'oli Kikaha. Rest assured, if Rob Ryan has this unit playing anywhere near 2013's level, and head coach Sean Payton is able to mastermind a fifth consecutive 400-yard offense, the Saints will be primed for a big bounce-back year. Last year's head-scratching five losses in their final five home games figures to be in the rear-view mirror with the Saints owning the league's second-easiest home schedule based on 2014 win-loss records. Lest we forget, according to opening Super Bowl odds, only Atlanta and Indianapolis will face a softer schedule of opponents in 2015.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Saints were 0-5 SUATS in their final five home games of the season last year.

TAMPA BAY

TEAM THEME: TAKE TWO
Buccaneers GM Jason Licht insists, "We're not rebuilding we're re-tooling." It occurred two years ago when management snapped the rubber band and reeled in veteran free agents, along with head coach Lovie Smith, in an attempt to move the needle. While the grades of that spending-spree are still out, the Bucs struck gold in last year's draft when they landed big WR Mike Evans and talented TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Granted, Jenkins hobbled his way to only 21 catches, but new OC Dirk Koetter has had a ton of success utilizing tight ends, making him a breakout candidate in 2015 especially with Evans and fellow WR Vincent Jackson figuring to soak up a ton of coverage. The bottom line is Tampa's pathetic play in 2014 landed them the No. 1 spot in this year's draft and with it Heisman Trophy winning QB Jameis Winston was summoned. His off-the-field antics aside, Famous Jameis is a franchise signal caller and as a result the Bucs will likely contend for the NFC South title within a year or two. To accelerate the process, Tampa also drafted two OL and speedy WR Kenny Bell in the later rounds to help build around Winston. With last year's OC Jeff Tedford not able to coach after undergoing heart surgery, expect the new-look Bucs to make serious bucks for their backers this season. Loading up on OL help in the draft was a good, logical first step. We'll find out whether or not Evans was a soothsayer we he proclaimed last year's Bucs "the best 2-14 team ever."

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Teams who finished last, or tied for last, have won the NFC South 11 of last 12 years the next season.

NFC WEST

ARIZONA

TEAM THEME: A COLD DOSE OF REALITY
Since 1950 the Cardinals have enjoyed the luxury of three consecutive winning seasons only two times, covering a span of 65 years a mighty long time between drinks of water. Now, giddy off back-to-back double-digit winning seasons the past two years, head coach Bruce Arians is busy filling the canteens in preparation for the task ahead this 2015 campaign. Our much-loved coach completed what was arguably the mother of all coaching efforts last season when he guided his team down to its 3rd-string quarterback to the playoffs despite being outgained a whopping 64 YPG on the season. The feeling here is, even with QB Carson Palmer back behind center, improvement is not likely. Consider: only Seattle will take on a more difficult strength-of-schedule task when weighed against foes' Super Bowl odds this season (Cardinals average opponent Super Bowl odds 12.06-to-1). Over the years we've learned that if it looks like a skunk, walks like a skunk and smells like a skunk... it's a skunk. And Arizona's stats stunk up the joint last season. The Red Birds were out yarded in six of their final seven games, allowing season high or 2nd high yardage on five occasions. And the defense, the glue to last year's team, lost DL Darnell Dockett, NT Dan Williams and CB Antonio Cormartie not to mention DC Todd Bowles (Jets new head coach). Yes, we understand the absolutely masterful job Arians has done. But to ask him to improve on an 11-win season, forged largely with smoke-and-mirrors, is simply not realistic. Granted, a healthy Palmer who contends his surgically repaired shoulder is stronger than ever - at QB and newly signed RB Chris Johnson are stepping-stones, but don't underestimate the loss of starting C Lyle Sendlien (cut in the offseason), the starter since 2008. So until they actually begin out-yarding opponents on a consistent basis, we're sellers. Buyer beware.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Arians is 23-5 SU and 22-4-2 ATS as an NFL head coach versus sub .600 opponents.

ST. LOUIS

TEAM THEME: FISHERMAN'S TALE

It's hard to believe but only the Oakland Raiders have fewer wins since 2004 than do the Rams. It's what happens when you haven't had a single winning season over that time span. Former Philly QB Nick Foles swaps spots with Sam Bradford and appears to be a good fit for the Rams' style of offense. The question is a makeshift offensive line and who will be on the receiving end of his tosses, as the St. Louis wide receivers certainly don't scare many a secondary in the league. And for Foles to make an impact, they will need the OL to improve dramatically. Greg Robinson, the second pick in last year's draft, struggled mightily and center Scott Wells (released) was even worse. As a result, the Rams nabbed four OL in the first six rounds in this year's draft. RB Tre Mason (765 rushing yards in 2014) figures to carry the early load until this year's top draft choice Todd Gurley (aka: Marshawn Lynch 2.0) is ready to take the field. FYI: the Rams claim they had Gurley at the very top of their draft board. On the defensive front, free agent DL Nick Fairley pairs with Pro Bowl DE Robert Quinn (10.5 sacks last season) and to help form an imposing frontline one that features no less than five first-rounders, including 2014 defensive rookie of the year Aaron Donald. If DE Chris Long recovers from ankle surgery, the defense has a legit chance of going from shaky to super good overnight. Its time head coach Jeff Fisher helps this team find the winner's circle... before they bolt for Los Angeles.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last 1,000-yard receiver the Rams had was Torry Holt in 2007

SAN FRANCISCO

TEAM THEME: MILES AND MILES AND MILES
If the loss of head coach John Harbaugh in the offseason wasn't bad enough for the Niners to endure, they will travel the most miles of all NFL teams in 2015 (27,998), including four road games where the team travels over 2,000 miles. Not to belabor the point, but we must note that last year's air miles leader, Oakland, ran out of gas in its final three road games of the campaign, going 0-3 SUATS when they were outscored a mind-boggling 130-27. Now where else but in the PLAYBOOK are you going to read neat stuff like that? Meanwhile, new head coach Jim Tomsula, San Fran's former defensive line coach with ONE game of head coaching experience (coached and won the final game of the 2010 season after Mike Singletary was fired), assumes the reins. This much we know for sure: Their top running back, Frank Gore, is gone (Indianapolis). Gore had rushed for 1,000 or more yards eight of the last nine years, including each of the last four seasons in a row. LB's Patrick Willis and 23-year old Chris Borland, along with DL Justin Smith and RT Anthony Davis have retired. DE Ray McDonald and lineman Aldon Smith's careers are history. And you thought you had troubles? It's a good thing QB Colin Kaepernick worked with future Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner in the offseason. He's going to need every advantage he can muster.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last time San Francisco won a Super Bowl was 21 years ago

SEATTLE

TEAM THEME: LEAST MODE
Ouch. From back-to-back Super Bowl titles to Super Bowl loser, all in the fell swoop of an ill-fated call in the final stages of last season's championship game. If you're reading this you're all-too-familiar with head coach Pete Carroll's head-scratching decision to go from obvious beast mode to yeast infection when he turned his nose up at handing the ball to Marshawn Lynch and instead watched Russell Wilson toss a pick from the 1-yard line with the Super Bowl on the line. And now, according to the 2015 opening Super Bowl odds, they must not only tackle the league's most difficult schedule including nine games versus playoff squads from last season but, like the Oakland Raiders, must trek over 25,000 travel miles for the second year in a row. Talk about having to pay the piper! And speaking of the Super Bowl loser, it goes without saying the task ahead for teams having to carry the leprous label is daunting. Only seven teams have ever made it back to the Super Bowl, and only two of those (1971 Cowboys and 72 Dolphins) have ever won. The last Super Bowl loser to return to the big game was the Buffalo Bills in SB XXVIII in January 1994. And forget about backing downtrodden Super Bowl losers the following season as they are a 48.4% ATS proposition overall since 1980. Do you really want any of that? Not with a team that will take on a league-high four opponents coming off a bye week, and zero foes in the 2nd of back-to-back away games, in 2015. Note: Seahawks are 3-7 SUATS versus rested foes with winning records during the regular season this millennium. We fully realize Carroll's magical ability in bringing the absolute best out of his players, and his determined focus on making amends for the aforementioned Super Bow faux pas are incentives. The there is the best defense in the league, anchored by the "Legion of Boom", arguably the best-ever secondary the NFL has ever seen. Toss in the addition of all-world TE Jimmy Graham and a content QB (Wilson inked to a long-term $87 million deal) and you have the makings of a team anxious to rule the NFC roost. But a new-look OL and the myriad of aforementioned obstacles, including the release of two-year starting DT Tony McDaniel (a salary cap hit), plus a new defensive coordinator (Kris Richard) for the 2nd time in three years, forces us to look the other way.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Seahawks are 0-6 SU and 0-4-2 ATS away all-time versus AFC North opponents.