Division Openers
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
New Orleans at San Francisco
Line: Saints -3.5 (47)
Movement: All of the major offshore outfits (Pinnacle, Greek, CRIS, 5Dimes) sent out New Orleans -3 with the money being flat (EVEN) or listed at (-125). The total came out at 46.5 and was pushed up to 47 at most shops.
Notes: Will gamblers give the points with New Orleans again? It's hard not to bet on the Saints, considering the team has won and covered nine straight games. It shouldn't be easy, considering San Francisco went 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS from the Bay Area and the lone loss came by three points, an overtime decision to Dallas (24-27) in Week 2. New Orleans went 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road this season. The Saints have won six straight (4-2 ATS) against the 49ers, with their last meeting coming (25-22) in the 2010 season on MNF. San Francisco hasn’t won or been to a playoff game since 2002, when they rallied past the N.Y. Giants for a 39-38 victory. Make a note that Saints QB Drew Brees has never won a road playoff game in his career, unless you count the Super Bowl victory over the Colts, which was played in South Florida.
Denver at New England
Line: Patriots -13.5 (51)
Movement: New England opened at -13 and the hook was added quickly. 5Dimes opened 14, jumped to 15½ real quick. The total started at 51 dropped to 49 ½ and danced back to 51.
Notes: After a slow start, New England ran past Denver in Week 15 for a 41-23 road victory. The Pats covered as seven point favorites and the combined 64 points easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number (47). The Patriots went 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at home this season, with the lone loss coming to the N.Y. Giants (20-24) in Week 9. New England was 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. Prior to the win over Pittsburgh (29-23) in the Wild Card round, Denver was 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS versus playoff teams. The Broncos went 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS on the road, but were 5-1 with Tim Tebow as the starting quarterback. Bill Belichick and the Patriots have lost their last three playoff battles, including the last two at home.
Houston at Baltimore
Line: Ravens -7.5 (35.5)
Movement: Depending on who you like and where you play, you could shop for a good number here. Baltimore opened at -7 in Las Vegas and offshore. The lowest number you can get right now is 7.5 but there are 8s and even 9s as of Sunday evening. The total got slammed from 38.5 to 35.5 points, where it seems to have settled.
Notes: These two squads have met five times and Baltimore has come away with victories in all five (4-1 ATS), including an encounter this season. Baltimore stopped Houston 29-14 in Week 5, covering as a seven-point home favorite. The Ravens only led 16-14 after three quarters, but they also saw five drives end with field goals. Baltimore was a beast at home this season, going 8-0 (4-3-1 ATS). Meanwhile, Houston was a respectable 5-3 both SU and ATS on the road. Baltimore has never lost a playoff opener since John Harbaugh has taken over as coach in 2008. Ironically, this will be the first postseason game at home for the Ravens under Harbaugh.
New York Giants at Green Bay
Line: Packers -8.5 (52)
Movement: This is another number that has some solid range. The opener was sent out at 9.5 at both Greek and Wynn, but 5Dimes opened 11, which has dropped to 10. The consensus is sitting at 8½ but there are a couple 9s (EVEN) out there. The total opened at 51 and has jumped up to 52 at the majority of shops.
Notes: The Packers held off the Giants 38-35 for a road victory in Week 13, but they failed to cover as seven-point favorites. Green Bay averaged 40 points per game at Lambeau Field, which help the team produce an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS mark. New York was 5-3 both SU and ATS as a visitor this season. Gamblers have some good coaching trends for this matchup. Tom Coughlin is 5-3 in the postseason with the G-Men and that includes a 4-1 road record (5-0 ATS) outside of New York. And for the Packers, Mike McCarthy is 7-0 versus the number with a bye week.
Blade,
What are your picks for the 2nd round post season??
I took Giants +9 and Saints / 49ers Over 47½, been riding the Saints over the last few weeks and see no reason to jump off now.
Divisional Playoff Trends
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
After expanding its playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, the NFL left the door wide open to the possibilities of a Wild Card team running the table and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. And while a Wild Card team has done so only seven times in Super Bowl history, five such winners have been crowned since 1997.
Last year witnessed the Packers hauling home the hardware. In 2007 it was the New York Giants, in 2005 the Pittsburgh Steelers, in 2000 the Baltimore Ravens and in 1997 the Denver Broncos.
Will the trend continue this season or will the top seeded teams have their say? With both of the No.1 seeds owning the league’s worst defenses, a strong case might certainly be made for New Orleans to continue in red-hot mode. Before we crown anyone just yet, let’s first check a few Divisional Round angles in the NFL playoffs that are noteworthy.
All results are since 1990 and are ATS, unless noted otherwise…
Top Seeds Generally Up To Speed
No. 1 seeds enjoy the luxury of not only hosting a game in this round but also play with an added week of rest.
For the most part these teams have met with modicum of success, going 31-11 SU and 23-19 ATS in this role.
The best the NFC has to offer has gone 19-2 SU and 15-6 ATS, including 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS versus a foe off a spread win of more than 13 points in its Wild Card game.
Top seeds from the AFC have struggled, going 12-9 SU and 8-13 ATS, including 5-5 SU and 1-9 ATS when playing off back-to-back wins.
Success Breeds Success
Rested hosts in this round that enjoyed success last season use that experience to their advantage.
That’s confirmed by the fact that teams that won 11 or more games last year are 38-9 SU and 29-17-1 ATS at home with a week to prepare in Division Round contests.
On the flip side, teams that were losing teams last years (seven or fewer wins) are just 7-34 SU and 15-24-1 ATS in this round.
Put one up against the other – an 11-plus win home team against a losing team last year – and these hosts respond with aplomb, going an eye-opening 16-0 SU and 12-3-1 ATS.
Highway Blues
Life on the road for Wild Card teams who won at home has been rocky, especially if they grabbed the cash as well.
These highwaymen are just 15-36 SU and 20-29-1 ATS in this role against well-rested higher-seeded foes.
And if these same Wild Card winners take to the road off one win-exact they dip to a disgusting 0-15 SU and 1-13-1 ATS in these affairs.
There you have it. A trio of time-tested theories to help guide you through the NFL Divisional Round games this week. Do the math, figure them out and play accordingly. The exercise should help expand your mind and your bank account.
WELL this is nuts this year for NFL! I have leraned something in handicapping your eventual champion!This year we have allfrauds on one side of the ball Except for the Texans !
HERE it is your super bowl chmpion must have outgained all 16 opponents by 35 yrads or more and be plus in the T O's !
Last year all the frauds went down the tubes in div rounds and they were at home ! Falcons only were +18 yds pergame ,Bears were - 8 yrads pergame , Patriots were - 3 yards pergame Colts were + 17 yds per game the two superbowl teams were both plus over 60 yds pergame and plus in the TO's !
Thats why this year i'm having difulculty with the superbowl matchup ! Texans HC is the a moronic fool thinking a rookie QB will get him out of playoffs ! SEE ya next year Texans Baltimore will rip you apart !
THE NYG can pull off the upset @ GB the way thier defense has turned around they can do it !
SO if that happens the history of NFL playoffs in superbowl years will kick in ! Anyteam who beats the defending champs in playoffs is 0-13 in next playoff game !
Seahawks was #13 Lat year !
SO if That Happens WE may have Harbaugh bowl #2 ! Ravens Can beat Patriots in NE they have the defense and run game to pull it off ! NYG loses at 49ers and we have the 49ers and Ravens in the Bowl !
NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Divisional Round Betting Notes
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Why Saints cover: These guys are hotter than a supermodel on the sun. Drew Brees & Co. have won and covered nine straight games, including seven by double digits, and they rolled Atlanta 45-28 laying 10.5 last week in the wild-card round.
Why 49ers cover: Yeah, the Saints are the second-best spread-covering team in the league this year, but guess who’s No. 1? San Fran at 12-3-1 against the spread (ATS). And Jim Harbaugh’s defense could be just the antidote for New Orleans’ high-octane offense – the Niners allow a stingy 14.3 ppg, second in the NFL.
Total (47.5): Over has hit in four straight for Saints and is sturdy 7-1-1 in New Orleans’ last nine postseason tilts. And in this rivalry, over is 4-1-1 last six overall and 7-0 in the City by the Bay. But San Fran, with its stout defense, is on under runs of 8-3 overall and 4-1 at Candlestick.
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-13.5)
Why Broncos cover: Denver on pointspread streaks of 5-1 on the highway, 6-1 catching points and 9-1 on Saturday. And the Pats definitely struggle in Vegas against big numbers, with ATS slides of 5-16 overall laying more than 10 points and 3-14 giving more than 10 points at home. Plus, New England is on an 0-6 playoff ATS skid.
Why Patriots cover: They’re nearly as hot as the Saints, as winners of eight in a row straight up (SU), and their five covers in that stretch have all come in double-digit routs. New England has one of the most consistent passers of all time in Tom Brady. Tim Tebow, on the other hand, is perhaps most consistent at being inconsistent.
Total (50.5): New England is built for overs. The Pats score lots of points (32.1 ppg, second), and they give up a fair amount of points and a ton of yards (411.1 ypg, 31st). They’ve allowed 20 points or more in each of their last six outings – all of which went over. That includes a 41-23 win at Denver three weeks ago. Total has also gone over in 15 of Denver’s last 18 vs. winning teams.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9)
Why Texans cover: They already covered easily in a playoff game against an AFC North foe, whipping Cincinnati 31-10 last week, and they’re the fourth-best ATS team in the league (10-5-2 ATS). Add to that the No. 2 yardage defense (285.7), No. 4 scoring defense (17.4 ppg), and some guy named Arian Foster – the stud RB had 153 yards and two TDs last week.
Why Ravens cover: They aren’t the Bengals and they’re on a roll, having won seven of their last eight SU. They’ve got their own star RB (Ray Rice) and, like Houston, Baltimore has a sterling defense, allowing just 16.6 ppg (second) and 288.9 ypg (third). Plus, the Ravens have already dumped Houston once this year, 29-14 as 7-point home chalk in October.
Total (36.5): Two elite defenses could keep this score low, and the under for Ravens is on streaks of 4-1 after an ATS win and 4-1 with Baltimore as playoff chalk. Texans, however, are on number of over stretches, including 5-0 in January, 12-3-1 catching points and 27-9 vs. winning teams.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-8)
Why Giants cover: Eli Manning & Co. have done this before in near identical circumstances. In the playoffs following the 2007 season, they went on the road and downed the Packers 23-20 as 7.5-point underdogs. And how about these pointspread streaks: 6-0 as a pup, 6-1 in the postseason and a superb 6-0 in road playoff games. New York also covered while nearly upending Green Bay in a 38-35 December home loss.
Why Packers cover: These guys aren’t the defending NFL champs for nothing. Aaron Rodgers leads the league’s No. 1 scoring attack (35.0 ppg) and No. 3 yardage attack (405.1 ypg). And while going a spotless 8-0 SU at home this season, the Packers went 7-1 ATS - scoring 35 points or more seven times and winning by an average score of 40.1-20.4. Men in Green went 4-0 ATS in rolling through last year’s playoffs and are on further ATS streaks of 18-7-1 at Lambeau and 8-1 vs. winning teams.
Total (52.5): Total has gone low in four straight overall for Giants and in seven of their last eight postseason affairs. But Packers are on abundance of over streaks, including 8-2 overall, 27-11 at home and 4-1 in the playoffs at Lambeau. Plus, the last four Giants-Packers meetings have gone high, with last month’s game (73 points) sailing over the posted total of 53.5.
Total Talk - Divisional Playoffs
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Wild Card Recap
Total bettors watched the 'over' go 3-1 last weekend but those following the action would agree that the results could've been 2-2 or even 3-1 to the 'under.' Including the first round results, the 'under' stands at 121-116-5 (51%) on the season.
Possible Numbers
Last week's 'over/under' between the Saints and Lions closed at 59 ½ points, which was the highest postseason total ever. According to VI expert Marc Lawrence and his database, since 1980 the highest NFL total was 62 in the Rams-49ers game on Oct. 29, 2000. St. Louis earned a 34-24 victory and the game stayed 'under' the number. With the top three scoring units (Packers, Saints, Patriots) still alive in the playoffs, we could see that number eclipsed this postseason. We reached out to head oddsmaker Jay Kornegay at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book and he believed that you could see a Super Bowl 'over/under' of 64 if the Saints or Packers met the Patriots in this year's finale.
Divisional Playoff History
Prior to last year, the second round of the postseason usually saw the 'under' dominate. However, the 'over' went 4-0 last year but it could've easily been 2-2 if it wasn't for some serious bad beats. The Bears beat the Seahawks 35-21 in a game that saw a combined 28 points posted in the fourth quarter. And if you thought that was tough to stomach, the Jets upset the Patriots 28-21 on the road and the combined 49 points barely slid 'over' the closing number of 45. In that outcome, 17 points were posted in the final two minutes. Below are the recent results in the second round.
Bye, Bye Scoring
We kept track of this during the regular season and will bring it up again since all four games fit the situation this weekend. This season, the 'under' went 24-8 (75%) in games that featured at least one team playing with rest.
Coaching Trends
For those of you who followed the Mike Tomlin 'over' trend last week, congrats! For those that didn't, make a note that the Pittsburgh Steelers coach has been on the sidelines for eight playoff games and all eight have went 'over' the number. This week, we have another good angle and it was perfect up until last season. Since taking over for the Patriots in 2000, Bill Belichick has coached in seven divisional round games and the 'under' has cashed in six of seven. It would've been seven out of seven but the as mentioned above, the Jets and Patriots snapped the streak. Of the seven games, five were played in Foxborough and New England has only surrendered an average of 15.6 PPG.
Saturday, Jan. 14
New Orleans at San Francisco: Something has to give in this matchup, when the Saints' high-powered offense (34.8 PPG) meets the 49ers' stout defense (14.3 PPG). Who do you put your money on? New Orleans has busted 40-plus points in its last four games, but San Francisco's defense has surrendered 10 points in its last three home games albeit to inferior attacks. The opener was 46½ points but the number is hovering between 47 and 48 at most books. This is the highest total that the 49ers have seen all season, and the second-lowest 'over/under' for the Saints. On the road, New Orleans saw the total hold steady at 4-4 with its offense averaging 27.3 PPG. If you're looking for a solid trend, make a note that Saints QB Drew Brees has played in seven playoff games with his current team and six have gone 'over' the number. The one 'under' came in Super Bowl XLIV victory over the Colts (31-17), which had a total of 57.
Denver at New England: This total is bouncing back and forth between 50 and 51 points. New England ran past Denver 41-23 on the road in Week 14 and the 'over' cashed (47.5) in the third quarter. The Patriots' offense put up seven scores (5 TDs) in the win and it's hard to see the unit slowing down. New England closed the season with six straight 'over' tickets. Including last week against Pittsburgh, Denver has squared off against five playoff teams this season and all five of those games have gone 'over.' There are no early signs of precipitation for the primetime affair, but temperatures are expected to be in the twenties.
Sunday, Jan. 15
Houston at Baltimore: The total on this game has seen the most action so far. The line opened at 38 ½ points before dropping quickly to 35 ½. Most shops push the number back up to 36 as of Thursday. In Week 5, Baltimore handled Houston 29-14 and the 'over/under' closed at 43 ½ points. Due to injuries, the Texans are a completely different team, especially on offense. Since QB Matt Schaub went down, the team averaged 19.8 PPG. Defensively, Baltimore (16.6 PPG) and Houston (17.4 PPG) are ranked fourth and fifth respectively in scoring. At home, the Ravens have seen the 'over/under' go 4-4 this season. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has been in seven playoff games and the 'under' has gone 4-3 in those tilts but all of them were played on the road as well. Will we see a different Ravens team in the playoffs at home?
N.Y. Giants at Green Bay: Another rematch here as the Giants will look to avenge a 38-35 home loss to the Packers in Week 13. The 'over' hit midway through the third quarter, yet this week's opener (51) was lower than the first meeting (53.5). The number has spiked up since and it's hard to argue an 'under' play considering Green Bay's offense (35 PPG) is the best in the league and its defense (22.4 PPG) isn't exactly a brick wall. At Lambeau Field, the Packers have put up 35 or more points in seven games and 40-plus in five contests, which has produced a 7-1 mark to the 'over.' The high-powered attack could be tempered on Sunday against a Giants' defense that has only given up 23, 14, 14 and two points the last four weeks. To no surprise, the 'under' has gone 4-0 during this stretch. We mentioned a player-based trend on the Giants QB Eli Manning last week and we'll revisit it again. In his eight playoff starts, New York has never scored more than 24 points, which has helped the 'under' produce a 7-1 record.
I just rembered something about 49ers roster wow do they have an edge ! Thier all pro center Johnathan Goodwin was on the Saints Superbowl Championship team !
SO he sure knows thier front 4 very well and i'm guessing his playoff and champion experience is helping the other players on San Fran
Even tho 49ers had a weak schedule they beat some darn good teams on the road and at home totally demolished the AFC champ steelers 20-3 !
Also the Saints have never won a road playoff game plus they lost to TB again which is the kisss of death in NFL history !
Rember Last Year saints lost to TB and wound up losing at the 7-9 Seahwks ?
Seahawks also lost to TB and bowed out at the Bears
yeah yeah i know Saints lost to TB in 09 when they didnt play final 3 games of year but they needed help in Finals vs Vikings the refs had to Swallow lots of Flags for late rember me hits on Farve ! They got away with highway robbery in that game and squeaked a 3 point win as a 3.5 or 4 point home favorite
BUT IF Vikings won that game and played The Colts i dont know who would win that Superbowl
49ers win this game either way it goes they have put up points away and at home ! IF saints play shootout 49ers will match them and stop them with defense which saints cannot do
especially on Natural turf ! Maybe 49ers use heavy watering before game day make it nice and wet n thicker !
HEY why not it';s your house gotta keep the lawn pretty !
ON TO Giants at Packers after handicapping this game Vegas is trying to trick you with 8 point on giants ! Look at giants games even at end of year who have they beaten ?
bunch of failing rejects
and THEY lost @ redskins theeeeee worst team in DIV yeah the REX Grossman redskins the 4 - 12 losing redskins
I can understand a lil let down not covering the spread but to lose to them week 15 when your trying to make a run at playoffs !
SO everyone is thinking wow they almost Beat GB at home lost by 3 points now i get 8 points and they are healthy now !
SUCKER bet of Playoffs ! ONLY thing is the depression of Packers OC losing his son in the lake maybe heavy Hearts during game plus he will not be there having to deal with funeral and all family stuff !
Maybe Giants hang within a TD or maybe the Troops rally and play thier hearts out and destroy this Weak NYG team like many others who came in thier house
helllo perfect at home 8-0
ON ward Broncos + 13 1/2 at Patriots well the broncos didnt win thier div. they got in at 8-8 because raiders lost !
8-8 team do not go far in playoffs yeah sure they won at home over the multi injured steelers but @ Patriots trying to stop Brady and his crew for 4 quaters takes one strong defensive effort only the Giants pulled it off and that was close NYG won 24- 20 had a stop late in game to get ball back from Pats trying to go in to win the game
NOW this 8-8 team with basically a rookie in his first starting year have to try and Beat a BILL bellichick team with an extra week to prepare for YOU !
BYIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE 52 - 24
Teaxns at ravens well for sure HC Kubiak is a moron going in with a 3rd string rookie QB and losing final 3 games of year is no way to to get to a bowl !
Funny this team is only real superbowl contender way over the PLUS 35 yds per game of 16 games at + 110 yards per game and plus 24 in the turnover catergory
all other teams in playoffs are smal pluses or negative yards per game and minus in the turnover catergory
Ravens at home vs an inexperienced rookie QB seeeeeeee yaaaaaaa Texans
so theres YUR [playoff winners folks GB 49ers Patriots and ravens
superbowl will either BE packers Ravens or 49ers ravens Patriots defense will be thier undoing vs Ravens
Saints at 49ers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 47)
THE STORY: Does defense still win championships in today's pass-happy NFL? Drew Brees and the high-powered New Orleans Saints will test that notion when they pay a visit to the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday afternoon. The game is a purist's dream, matching the league's top offense against its best defense in the only one of this weekend’s four playoff games that is not a rematch of the regular season. Brees eclipsed Dan Marino's single-season record for passing yards in putting up offensive numbers rarely seen this side of a video game. Third-seeded New Orleans arrives in the Bay Area riding a nine-game winning streak and having scored 45 points in each of its last three games, including last week's 45-28 demolition of the Detroit Lions in the wild card round. No. 2 seed San Francisco counters with a defense that allowed an NFC-low 14.3 points per game. The 49ers can also point to one critical stat: The Saints have never won a road playoff game, including last season’s 41-36 loss at Seattle.
LINE: The Saints opened as low as 3-point favorites and have since climbed to as high as -4. The total opened at 48 points and has dropped to 47.
WEATHER: Clear skies are in the forecast for the Bay Area, with temperatures in the high 50s and winds blowing slightly, NNE, at speeds of up to 4 mph.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (14-3, 13-4 ATS): Brees threw for 466 yards and three TDs as New Orleans amassed a postseason-record 626 yards against Detroit. The Saints trailed at halftime before reeling off 35 second-half points. Brees has not been intercepted in 215 attempts – another playoff record – and is the only quarterback to throw for 400 yards in back-to-back postseason games, although one came in a loss at seven-win Seattle last season. New Orleans also showed great balance last week by getting 164 rushing yards from the trio of Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles and Chris Ivory. While Marques Colston is Brees’ favorite target, the biggest matchup nightmares are third-down back Sproles and TE Jimmy Graham. They had a combined 185 receptions and scored 20 TDs between them in the regular season.
ABOUT THE 49ERS (13-3, 12-3-1 ATS): San Francisco is in the postseason for the first time since the 2002 season, rebounding from last season’s 6-10 mark under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh. The 49ers’ formula is pure smash-mouth football, utilizing the running of Frank Gore and an unyielding defense that surrendered only 308.2 yards per game. The first-round bye had to help Gore, who rushed for 1,211 yards and had five straight 100-yard games before injuries limited him over the second half of the season. QB Alex Smith threw for 3,144 yards and was intercepted only five times, but he also had only 17 TDs for a team that too often settled for field goals. K David Akers set an NFL mark with 44 FGs.
TRENDS:
* Over is 7-0 in the last seven meetings in San Francisco.
* Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in San Francisco.
* Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
* Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Saints have beaten the 49ers six straight times, including a 25-22 victory in San Francisco last season on a field goal as time expired.
2. New Orleans was 5-3 on the road and was held to 26 points or less in four of its last five away from home.
3. The 49ers allowed a league-record three rushing touchdowns for the season.
PREDICTION: Saints 24, 49ers 16. San Francisco manages to slow New Orleans somewhat, but failure to capitalize on its scoring chances makes the difference.
Broncos at Patriots: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-13.5, 50)
THE STORY: Tom Brady is hardly ever knocked out of the spotlight, which is saying something when you're married to a supermodel. However, the husband of Gisele Bundchen – and quarterback of the New England Patriots – has been relegated to second billing this weekend with the arrival of Tebowmania in Foxborough. Media lightning rod Tim Tebow will look to pull off a second straight stunning upset when he leads the visiting Denver Broncos against Brady and the Patriots on Saturday night. It will be a rematch of a Week 15 game in Denver, in which the Patriots erased an early deficit and rolled to a 41-23 victory – the first of three straight losses to close the regular season for the Broncos. Denver rebounded from the late swoon to shock the Pittsburgh Steelers 29-23 last week on Tebow’s 80-yard scoring pass on the very first play of overtime.
LINE: The Patriots opened as two-touchdown favorites, but have been bet down to -13.5. The total opened at 51 points and has dropped to 50.
WEATHER: Temperatures in Gillette Stadium will fall into the mid teens while winds will blow NW at 7 mph.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-8, 8-9 ATS): Tebow rose from the ashes of two dreadful performances by throwing for a career-high 316 yards in the upset of the Steelers. Pittsburgh dared Tebow to beat him with his arm – and he did with four completions of at least 30 yards, including tosses of 51, 58 and 80 yards to Demaryius Thomas, who had four receptions for 204 yards. RB Willis McGahee rushed for 70 yards on seven carries before he was hurt in the first meeting with New England. The Broncos gashed the Patriots for 252 yards on the ground, including 167 in the opening quarter, but three lost fumbles that forced them into catch-up mode. Leading WR Eric Decker is not expected to play due to a knee injury.
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (13-3, 9-7 ATS): Despite an eight-game winning streak and last month’s comfortable victory at Denver, New England has plenty of reasons not to feel overconfident. The Patriots have lost their playoff opener – at home – in each of the past two seasons and developed a disturbing habit of falling behind early in their last three games of the regular season. New England fell behind 17-0 to Miami and 21-0 to Buffalo – both at home – before rallying. The one constant has been two-time MVP Brady, who threw for 5,235 yards and 39 touchdowns while getting picked off only 12 times. He has 19 TDs and two interceptions during the winning streak. The main concern is a defense that ranks 31st in the league, getting trampled for 411.1 yards per game.
TRENDS:
* Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in New England.
* Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in New England.
* Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The No. 1 seed is no guarantee of success in the AFC, compiling a 12-9 record since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990.
2. Brady is tied with Terry Bradshaw for the best postseason record (14-5) by a quarterback with at least 15 starts.
3. Ex-Broncos coach Josh McDaniels, who drafted Tebow and Thomas, joined New England’s staff this week.
PREDICTION: Patriots 27, Broncos 17. The magic finally runs out on Tebow as Brady guides New England into AFC title game.
Saturday's Playoff Primer
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
One of the best weekends in sports has arrived! Gamblers have a pair of doubleheaders on Saturday and Sunday in the NFL Playoffs, including a showdown between the Tim-Tebow-led Broncos against Tom Brady and the Patriots in Foxboro in Saturday’s prime-time tilt.
But we start in San Francisco, where the NFC’s second-seeded 49ers will take on a red-hot New Orleans squad by the Bay. The Saints were 3½-point favorites for most of the week, but the number moved up to four on Friday morning. The total is 47 and Jim Harbaugh’s club is plus-170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170)
New Orleans (14-3 straight up, 13-4 against the spread) has taken the cash in nine consecutive games, including last week’s 45-28 win over Detroit as an 11-point home ‘chalk.’ Drew Brees completed 33-of-43 passes for 466 yards and three touchdowns without throwing an interception.
Pierre Thomas had 14 ‘touches’ (eight rushes, six receptions) for 121 yards and one rushing score, while Darren Sproles had 85 yards on 14 touches (10 carries, four catches) with a pair of TD scampers. Marques Colston had a team-high seven receptions for 120 yards.
San Francisco (13-3 SU, 12-3-1 ATS) was the NFL’s biggest surprise this year under the leadership of Harbaugh, who has shattered the previous trend of college coaches flopping at the pro level. The former Stanford coach has instilled toughness into a team that thrives on defense and running the football.
The 49ers were nearly perfect at home this year, going 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 versus the number. The lone loss came to the Cowboys in an overtime game they led by 10 with seven minutes remaining.
Sean Peyton’s club went 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road. The Saints saw the ‘over’ go 10-7 overall, 4-4 in their eight road assignments.
San Francisco has seen the ‘under’ go 9-7 overall, 4-4 in its home games. This is the highest total the 49ers have had all year. The previous high was 45 in a 25-19 win at Detroit.
On the injury front, New Orleans WR Lance Moore (hamstring) has been ruled ‘out.’ LB Jonathan Vilma has been limited at practice but will play.
The bye week has allowed the 49ers to get completely healthy with the exception of TE Delanie Walker, who is ‘out’ with a fractured jaw.
Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday afternoon at 4:30 p.m. Eastern on FOX.
New England (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS) garnered the AFC’s No. 1 seed thanks to eight straight victories to close the regular season. The Patriots overcame a leaky defense thanks to their high-octane offense led by veteran quarterback Tom Brady, who enjoyed another sensational year with 5,239 passing yards and a 39/12 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Brady has utilized one of the best WRs in the game (Wes Welker) and two of the league’s top tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Welker hauled in an NFL-best 122 receptions for 1,573 yards and nine TDs. Gronkowski had 90 catches for 1,327 yards and 17 TDs, while Hernandez finished the regular season with 79 grabs for 910 yards and seven scores.
Denver (9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS) lost four of its first five games before finally turning to Tim Tebow in favor of Kyle Orton at the QB position. The two-time national-title winner at the University of Florida paid instant dividends, leading the Broncos to a 7-1 record in his first eight starts.
However, John Fox’s team faltered down the stretch with three consecutive losses, backing into the postseason with a .500 record. With Tebow struggling mightily in losses at Buffalo and vs. Kansas City to end the year, his critics roared with approval.
But No. 15 didn’t get the memo. Facing the NFL’s top-ranked defense in last week’s AFC quarterfinals, Tebow threw for 316 yards, including an 80-yard scoring strike on the first play of overtime to propel the Broncos to a 29-23 win over the Steelers.
Denver hooked up its backers as an eight-point underdog, cashing money-line tickets in the plus-350 range (risk $100 to win $350).
Tebow’s game-winning TD pass went to fellow second-year player Demaryius Thomas, who showed his speed and power by dealing out a ferocious stiff-arm to create a little distance before beating the Pittsburgh secondary to the end zone. Thomas was all about the YAC (yards after the catch), turning four catches into 204 yards.
These teams met in the Mile High City on Dec. 18 with the Patriots capturing a 41-23 win as seven-point favorites. Denver raced out to a 16-7 lead before three second-quarter fumbles turned the tide of the game.
Brady threw for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns without an interception. Tebow completed 11-of-22 throws for 194 yards and also rushed 12 times for 93 yards and a pair of scores.
As of early Friday evening, most books were listing New England as a 13½-point favorite with a total of 50½. Neither number has had much movement since opening Sunday night. The Broncos are available to win outright for a plus-600 return (risk $100 to win $600).
New England has been a double-digit favorite three times, going 2-1 ATS. The Pats, who have won only three of their eight home games by double-digit margins, went 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at home during the regular season.
Denver has thrived on the road with a 5-3 SU record and a 6-2 ATS mark. This is the Broncos’ richest underdog situation of the year.
The ‘over’ is 11-5 overall for the Pats, 5-3 in their home games. They have seen the ‘over’ hit in six consecutive games. Also, they have watched the ‘over’ cash at a 5-4 clip in their nine games with totals in the 50s.
This is the highest total of the season for the Broncos, who have seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 their last four times out. For the year, the ‘over’ is 10-7 overall, 4-4 in their road contests. The previous high seen by Denver was 47½ in the aforementioned loss to New England.
CBS will provide the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Here are the updated NFL futures per Sportsbook.com: Green Bay is the 7/4 (+175) ‘chalk’ and New England has the second-shortest odds at 5/2 (+250). The rest are as follows…Saints (4/1), Ravens (7/1), Giants (10/1), 49ers (12/1), Texans (20/1) and Broncos (50/1).
Denver owns a 6-2 spread record in eight games as an underdog with Tim Tebow as its starting quarterback.
Sportsbook.com has a slew of proposition wagers for all four NFL games this weekend. Tebow’s ‘over/under’ totals are as follows: passing yards (192.5), rushing yards (55.5) completions (11.5) and rushing attempts (9.5).
Denver veteran safety Brian Dawkins remains ‘out’ and WR Eric Decker is also ‘out.’ Decker (44 catches, 612 yards, eight TDs) suffered a knee injury against Pittsburgh.
Since the Brees-Peyton combo arrived in New Orleans, it has only played a pair of road playoff games. The Saints lost both times, at Chicago in 2006 and at Seattle last year.
Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
There may quite a few of you who are tired of the Tim Tebow talk whether it be on TV, radio or print, but I think I’m going to milk out everything I can out of it while he’s still a hot topic. By the end of Saturday night, it could all be over and then we can all focus our attention on real football quarterbacks with perfect throwing motions, someone like Joe Flacco of the Ravens who finds that he can’t even watch ESPN anymore because he’s so irked about all the attention Tebow gets.
Most of us can’t explain it, but for whatever the reason, Tim Tebow is a hot topic in the sports world. If ESPN can devote nearly half of their news updates to the phenomenon of Tebow due to public demand, than I’m hopping on board too.
We have had it embedded in our minds what the successful conventional quarterback is supposed to be. We measure all the greats by statistics and Tebow doesn’t match up with even the most mediocre quarterbacks in league history, but there’s no denying that despite all his flaws, he’s got something working that has led to wins. And isn’t winning ultimately what it’s all about?
Las Vegas sports books have given the Broncos the longest odds on the board to win the Super Bowl, but sports books are finding that they are at severe risk if Denver does the unthinkable by running the table.
Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller can be put in the category of someone hoping that the Tebow from the Week 16 and 17 losses against the Bills and Chiefs shows up quickly, rather than the Tebow who shredded the top-ranked defense of the Steelers last week.
“We posted odds on the Broncos to win the Super Bowl at 500/1 after they started 1-4, just before Tebow made his first miracle at Miami,” said Miller, “and we’ve been dropping them ever since because of money taken.”
“We currently have the Broncos at 20/1 to win the Super Bowl just because of all the risk accumulated throughout the season. They are our biggest risk of all the remaining teams. Needless to say, I am not rooting for any more magic to occur.”
Admittedly, Miller knows his odds aren’t even close to what the value should be on a team that is looking at being close to double digits in each of their final three games should they make the Super Bowl. But Miller’s job as a bookmaker is to eliminate risk for his properties and with the Broncos, the risk is large. It’s almost as if he’s put a closed sign on the team.
I recently had Jay Rood, VP of race and sports for MGM Resorts, on Sports Book Radio and talked about his futures with the Broncos and he’s in the same boat with Miller where the demand is far exceeding the supply.
“Before the playoffs started I was going to post the Broncos at 60/1 and your buddy, Gregg Fisher (Supervisor at MGM Grand), said the odds shouldn’t be lower than 100/1 so I made them 99/1 and we got all kinds of small bets that turned into pretty big risk,” said Rood. “Right now, we’re down to 20/1 on the Broncos and people are still betting it.”
Mathematically, Fisher was absolutely correct, but math doesn’t account for the massive overflow of action on one side. With three games to go, and figuring the Broncos would be double-digit underdogs against whoever they face, Denver should be about 139/1 right now to win the Super Bowl (+600 x +300 x +400). To get those odds, the only way to grab it is betting the money-line on Denver and rolling the winnings over in each of the next three games.
When I posed the question to Rood of how big the handle would be if Tebow happened to make the Super Bowl against anyone, Rood didn’t hesitate with an answer, “It would set an all-time record.”
Between the crossover appeal Tebow has, he would have everyone from priests to bible belt Moms, who never bet on football, getting their $10 and $20 bets to Las Vegas somehow. We see that crossover appeal in huge TV ratings whenever Tebow plays and we see the same appeal over the counters at the sports books.
The LVH Super Book offered the Broncos at 65/1 following the Patriots loss, odds that are the best in the city, despite being well below what rolling over the money-line weekly would be. I asked LVH assistant sports book manager Jeff Sherman about what Tebow in the Super Bowl would mean for his book and he had the same sentiment as Rood.
“The handle would be through the roof and likely set a record,” said Sherman. “Not only would we get all the action from new bettors that have been watching football again because of Tebow, but we’d also get that segment of the market that dislikes him to come in and bet against him.“
Just like Flacco, there are a growing number of people who don’t like Tebow. Most of it stems from him just being unconventional, yet so publicized on our favorite sports shows. When listening to callers on sports talk radio shows discuss Tebow, it’s almost like hearing passionate crusaders debate the subject of abortion.
However, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and the league couldn’t be happier with the wholesome image portrayed by Tebow in light of all the other jurisprudence stories routinely going on with his other players, not to mention the trauma the lockout gave fans.
In the midst of all the hype and publicity Tebow gets from the media, we’ve almost forgotten about the 15-1 Packers and their very likable and marketable quarterback Aaron Rodgers, a QB who get‘s ‘A‘s‘ in every category of what most of us think a typical slinger should be.
Yet, in an ESPN poll, Tebow is voted as the most liked professional athlete above Rodgers and the likes of NBA superstar Kobe Bryant and Saints QB Drew Brees.
We have become a reality-television driven society and love the immediate shock value and watching drama unfold among unique personalities, whether it be in a pawn shop, storage unit, bakery or fishing boat. Our sports television programming has taken all the weekly miracles Tebow has been involved in and turned it into their own reality sports show.
Unlike the Snooki’s or Dave Hester’s of the reality TV world, Tim Tebow actually might be as genuine as he portrays which makes him even more endearing to those who have been captivated.
The 13½-point spread may suggest that the Tebow show comes to an end this week in New England, but sharp money was quick to jump on any +14 with Denver, and why not? It’s not like Tom Brady has won more playoff games than Tebow over the last three years. Home losses in this round the last two seasons by the Patriots have some questioning how hungry the three-time champs really are.
The Patriots’ 41-23 win in week 15 at Denver was aided by three key turnovers in the second quarter, but Denver basically did what they wanted offensively except for holding onto the ball. For Denver to have a chance in this game, they are going to have to be very aggressive with their pass rush on Brady. Dropping seven defenders back in coverage didn’t work the first time, so send the kitchen sink at him on almost every play and make him feel the pain like the Ravens and Jets did the last two postseasons. Easier said than done, but Denver can’t trade scores with Brady.
The Saints have been bet up from the opening line as 3-point favorites to -4 just about everywhere in town. The public has been correct with the Saints against-the-spread in their last nine games and their fast paced offensive attack seems impossible to stop.
As if the Candlestick Park turf wasn’t soggy enough, reports have been coming from San Francisco that the grounds crew have been mysteriously watering the field a little bit more than usual which seems odd since the below sea level field almost waters itself. The 49ers might be trying to use home field advantage to its fullest by creating quick-sand to help slow the Saints and win the game in the trenches. New Orleans has shown to be a completely different team away from the dome and have gone 2-3 against he spread on grass fields this season.
The Saints are tied with the Ravens as the most publicly bet teams of the week. Unlike the Saints, the Ravens-Texans line has stayed steady at -7½ despite all the small money. The biggest move on the game was the total, which initially opened 38½ and was bet down to 35½. The LVH Super Book currently has it at 36.
Public opinion is split down the middle on the Giants and Packers. Sharp money took all the +9, +8½ and +8 that was out there and the line has been sitting at 7½ all week. In Week 13 the Packers were 7-point road favorites versus New York and won 38-35. A lot has changed since then. The Giants were on a three-game losing streak coming in while the Packers were undefeated.
Now we have a healthy Giants squad that has won four of their last five, which were essentially playoff games, while the Packers have been on hiatus for three weeks. Most bettors want to believe that the 2007 season’s NFC Championship game can repeat itself, but we could be jaded by recent events and forgetting about how good this Packers offense is.
Enjoy the games this week, good luck!
Division Round Preview
Saints (14-3) @ 49ers (13-3) - This is just second outdoor game for Saints since October 16; we saw how well that worked for Falcons in similar spot last week. Big question here is how Saints’ offense translates to outdoor game; in their last seven red zone drives outdoor, NO has just one TD/five FGs; their points/drive in red zone is 1.5 ppd lower outdoors (3.73) than in a dome. That said, Saints have won/covered nine games in row since hideous Week 8 loss to Rams in St Louis; they’re 6-0 vs Niners since teams stopped being divisional rivals in 2002- they won here 25-22 LY. 49ers finished with a ludicrous +28 turnover ratio, turning ball over only 10 times all year (none in last five games); they had a 10+-yard advantage in field position in seven of their last nine games. Must be noted that only five of their 16 games were played against teams with winning record (4-1, lost at Ravens). Been over a decade since home team in this round is home dog; Niners are 3-1-1 as an underdog this season. Saints are 3-3 as a road favorite. Over last 20 years, NFC’s #2 seed is 7-3 SU against #2 seed in this round (12-4 in AFC, so 19-7 league-wide).
Broncos (9-8) @ Patriots (13-3) - AFC’s #1 seed has covered this game just once in last eight years; league-wide, #1 seed is 4-12 vs spread in this game the last eight years. Not sure if it means anything, but Patriots fell behind 17-0/21-0 in last two regular season games, rallying to beat non-contending division rivals both times; NE won its last eight games, but covered once in last three played here. New England (-6) won 41-23 at Denver in Week 15, despite Broncos running ball for 252 yards. Tebow was 11-23/141 passing; three lost fumbles led to Patriots’ 24-yard edge in average field position, which is almost impossible to beat. Belichick is 4-1 in this round with a bye, losing to Jets LY; he’s 0-3 vs spread in this round as #1 seed, beating Jags 31-20 (-13.5) in ’07, Titans 17-14 (-6.5) in ’03- he also beat Fox 32-29 (-7) in Super Bowl eight years ago, when Fox was in Carolina. Tebow’s Broncos are 5-2 SU this year as an underdog (6-4 overall). Over last 20 years, Denver is actually 5-2 in Foxboro, losing 41-7 in last visit here, three years ago.
Texans (11-6) @ Ravens (12-4) - Houston won first-ever playoff game last week, now rookie QB Yates has first-ever road playoff start at Ravens’ squad playing first home playoff game under Harbaugh (had seven on road). Back in Week 6, Ravens (-7.5) overcame -2 turnover ratio and beat Houston 29-14, holding Schaub to 4.9 ypa in game where first Texan TD came after turnover on short 17-yard drive- Baltimore was also coming off a bye in that game, while Texans hadn’t had theirs yet. Ravens were just 1-3-1 vs spread in last five home games, after covering first three- they ran ball for 162/221 yards in last two regular season games, would expect to see more of that, to take heat off suspect-QB Flacco. Texans covered last four tries as an underdog; they’re 2-2 as road dogs this season. Over last 20 years, AFC’s #2 seed is 12-4 SU against #2 seed in this round (7-3 in NFC, so 19-7 league-wide); underdogs are 4-4 vs spread in this game the last eight years, 8-8 league-wide. This is just second time since October 23 that Texans are playing an outdoor game that isn’t in Florida.
Giants (10-7) @ Packers (15-1) - Been six years since defending Super Bowl champ won playoff game (lost last four); Giants (+8) upset Pack 23-20 in OT in frigid NFC title game here four years ago (after Pack had beaten them in regular season), two stats fueling Big Blue optimism, but Green Bay is 8-0 at home this year, 7-1 as home favorite (only non-cover was 35-26 win over Bucs). Packers (-6.5) beat Giants 38-35 at Swamp Stadium in Week 13, scoring TD on pick-6 in game where total yardage was 449-447- they crushed Giants 45-17 at Lambeau LY. Giants won four of last five games, as defense has come alive, allowing only four TDs in last three games- they’re 5-2 as an underdog this season, 3-2 on road (Jet game was technically road game, but not really). Packer OC Philbin isn’t with team, after tragic death of his 21-year old son last week. This is Giants’ first game on grass since 27-20 loss at Candlestick in Week 10 (Nov 13). #1 seeds are just 4-12 vs spread in this round last eight years, 3-5 in NFC. Over last six years, #1 seeds are just 5-7 SU in this round, so certain amount of pressure on Pack to make home field count.
49ers, Patriots TODAY!!!!!!!!!
sorry i'm a california girl and the patriots have to beat tebow!
K2
Texans at Ravens: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9, 36)
THE STORY: The Houston Texans finally found the formula to make the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, combining a dominating running game with a stalwart defense. Some would say they simply borrowed from the playbook used by the Baltimore Ravens for the past decade. In many ways, the Texans will have to beat the Ravens at their own game when they visit Baltimore for an AFC divisional round matchup on Sunday afternoon. Houston already had one crack at the Ravens earlier this season, dropping a 29-14 decision at Baltimore on Oct. 16. Of course, that was a typical outcome this season for the Ravens, who posted the first perfect 8-0 record at home in team history. Baltimore has won all five meetings with Houston as it seeks its first home playoff win since the 2000 Super Bowl-winning season.
LINE: Depending on where you bet, Las Vegas or offshore, this line looks different. Most online books have taken the spread to -9 while Vegas oddsmakers have kept it a -7.5. The total has fallen from 38.5 to 35.5.
WEATHER: The forecast for Baltimore is calling for temperatures in the low 30s with slight winds blowing NNW at 8 mph.
ABOUT THE TEXANS (11-6, 10-5-2 ATS): Houston won its first playoff game in franchise history last week, getting 153 yards rushing and two touchdowns from Arian Foster in a 31-10 victory over Cincinnati. Star WR Andre Johnson, who missed the first meeting versus the Ravens and sat out nine games this season, had five receptions for 90 yards, including a 40-yard scoring pass. Rookie T.J. Yates, who was the third-string QB in October, completed 11 of 20 for 159 yards and one TD. Houston had four sacks and an interception return for a touchdown by DE J.J. Watt vs. Cincinnati. Foster was limited to 49 yards on 15 carries by the Ravens in Week 6, but he had 100 yards against them last season.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (10-3, 8-7-1 ATS): Joe Flacco is often criticized for holding back Baltimore’s offense, but he’s the only QB in the Super Bowl era to start a playoff game in each of his first four seasons. Flacco is 27-5 at home and will get a boost with the return of WR Anquan Boldin, who missed the last two games with a knee injury. Boldin had eight receptions for 132 yards in the last meeting against the Texans. Still, the offense revolves around RB Ray Rice, who rushed for 1,364 yards and 12 TDs and led the league with 2,068 yards from scrimmage. He rushed for 101 yards and added 60 more receiving against Houston. Baltimore led the AFC with 48 sacks.
TRENDS:
* Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff games as favorites.
* Texans are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. The Ravens and Texans were the only teams to rank among the top five in total defense, rushing defense and passing defense.
2. Houston was the first team to win its franchise playoff debut since Baltimore in 2000.
3. The Ravens have won their playoff opener in each of the last three seasons. Each game was on the road.
PREDICTION: Ravens 23, Texans 13. Baltimore is most susceptible through the air, but expecting Yates to win in a hostile environment is asking too much.