NFL Divisional Playoffs Betting News and Notes

Divisional Playoffs

Seahawks (11-5-1) @ Falcons (11-5) — Seattle (-7) held on to beat Falcons 26-24 in Week 6, thanks to no-call on blatant PI by Sherman on last play of game. Ryan passed for 310 yards but Atlanta was -2 in turnovers. Falcons had 362-333 edge in yardage. Seattle is 5-3 in Atlanta, winning 33-10 in last visit three years ago. Ryan is 1-4 in NFL playoff games; only win was 30-28 over Seattle here four years ago. Wilson is 8-3 in playoff games, 2-2 in true road games. Seahawks are 3-4-1 on road, 2-0 as a road underdog. Falcons won last four games, scoring 38.5 pts/game; they’re 5-3 at home, 2-5 as home favorites. Four of last six Seahawk games went over total; over is 5-0-1 in last six Atlanta games. #2 NFC seed won this game six of last seven years, but is 0-3 vs spread last three years.

Texans (10-7) @ Patriots (14-2) — Houston (+1) lost 27-0 here in Week 3, Brissett’s first NFL start at QB during Brady’s suspension- Texans opened as a favorite that week, but were -3 in TO’s. Houston lost all four visits here, with average score 38-12. Texans are 2-6 on road with only wins at Jaguars/Colts; they’re 2-6 as road underdogs. Last week was Osweiler’s first playoff game; he is 14-9 an an NFL starter. Brady is 22-9 in playoff games, 15-3 at home. Patriots won their last seven games (6-1 vs spread); they won/covered six of eight home games. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Houston games, 5-2 in last seven New England games. Patriots won in this round the last five years (3-1-1 vs spread) all at home. #1 seed in AFC is just 6-5SU in this round last 11 years, 2-4 vs spread the last six years.

Steelers (12-5) @ Chiefs (12-4) — Steelers won last eight games (6-2 vs spread); this is first time they’ve been underdog since Oct 23 in Foxboro. Pitt is 5-3 on road, 0-1 as an underdog this year- they hammered the Chiefs 43-14 (-3.5) back in Week 4; game was 29-nil at half. Chiefs won five of last six games, are 6-2 at home; they’re 12-0 if they score more than 17 points, 0-4 if they score 17 or less. Steelers won four of last five series games, but lost three of last four visits to Arrowhead. Roethlisberger is 12-6 in playoff games, 4-2 on road, with both losses in Denver.- he hasn’t faced KC in playoffs. Steelers are Smith is 2-3 in playoff games, 1-1 at home; all three of his playoff games with Chiefs have been on road. Under is 9-4 in last 13 Steeler games, 2-4 in Chiefs’ last six. #2 seed in AFC won this game five of last six years.

Packers (11-6) @ Cowboys (13-3) — Dallas (+5) beat Packers 30-16 in Lambeau in Week 6, snapping a 5-game skid vs Green Bay; Pack won 37-36 in its last visit here, three years ago- they beat Dallas 26-21 in a playoff game at Lambeau two years ago. Green Bay won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread); they’re 4-4 on road, 1-2 in domes (lost at Minn/Atl), 3-1 vs spread as an underdog. Cowboys are 7-1 at home (lost in Week 1 to Giants) 5-2 vs spread as a favorite. Rodgers is 9-6 in playoff games, 4-4 in true road games. This is rookie QB Prescott’s first playoff game. Green Bay played five of last six games in cold weather; they won 31-24 in dome at Detroit on Dec 26 to win NFC North. Four of last five Dallas games stayed under total; last five Packer games went over. #1 seed in NFC won this game last four years, but is 2-4 vs spread the last six years.

Armadillosports.com

AFC Divisional Notes
VegasInsider.com

Houston at New England

Line Movement: The Patriots opened as 14½-point home favorites and the number jumped to as high as 16 at some books. Most shops are holding New England -15½ as of Tuesday. The total has dropped from an opener of 46 to 44½.

Houston Road Record: 2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS
New England Home Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams have met eight times since Houston came back into the league in 2002 and this series has been dominated by New England. The Patriots have gone 7-1 and that includes a run of five consecutive victories. New England has covered six of the seven wins and five have come by double digits, which includes its 27-0 victory over Houston in Week 3 this season. The Patriots have scored the Texans 150-49 in the four meetings at Foxboro.

Playoff Notes: Bill Belichick has gone 22-9 in the playoffs with the Patriots. At home, the team has gone 15-3 SU and 9-5-1 ATS during this span while the ‘under’ is 10-8. In the last eight postseason games played at Foxboro, the Patriots are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS with four of the victories come by double digits. Including last week’s win over Oakland, Houston is now 3-3 all-time in the playoffs and that includes a 0-2 record on the road. New England defeated Houston 41-28 in the 2012 playoffs as a 9½-point home favorite.

Total Notes: The ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the eight meetings between the pair but the ‘under’ has gone 2-0 in the most recent encounters. New England watched the ‘under’ go 10-6 this season, which includes a stalemate (4-4) from Gillette Stadium. The Texans saw the ‘under’ go 4-3-1 on the road behind an offense that only averaged 14.8 points per game as visitors. New England enters this game with the league’s best scoring defense with 15.6 PPG.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

Line Movement: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Pittsburgh as a 2½-point road favorite but the number flip-flopped quickly. Most books have Kansas City now listed as a 1½-point home favorite as of Tuesday. The total in this game also dropped, going from 46½ to 44½.

Pittsburgh Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Kansas City Home Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Steelers blasted the Chiefs 43-14 on Oct. 2 as 3½-point home favorites in wire-to-wire fashion. Pittsburgh led 36-0 behind five touchdown passes from QB Ben Roethlisberger and Kansas City added two meaningless scores in the fourth quarter. Including that outcome, Pittsburgh has now won four of its last five against Kansas City and the lone loss occurred last season when Landry Jones stepped in at QB for an injured Big Ben.

Playoff Notes: Pittsburgh improved to 12-6 in the playoffs with Big Ben as QB after last week’s Wild Card win over Miami. The Steelers have gone 6-3 away from home during this span and all three of the losses have been decided by seven points or less. Kansas City went 1-1 in the playoffs last season and the victory over Houston was the first for the franchise since 1994 and also the first for head coach Andy Reid with the Chiefs. Reid owns an all-time 11-11 record in the playoffs, which includes a 1-2 with KC. The last playoff win at Arrowhead Stadium took place in 1994 when coincidentally the Chiefs beat the Steelers 27-24 in overtime behind legendary QB Joe Montana. Since then, KC is 0-4 in its last six playoff games at home and 0-6 ATS in the previous six.

Total Notes: The Steelers have seen the ‘under’ 11-6 this season and that includes a 6-2 (75%) mark on the road. Kansas City has also been a very strong ‘under’ wager (10-6) and that includes a 6-2 lean to the low side at Arrowhead. Pittsburgh has scored 18 and 16 points in two playoff games on the road last season, both resulting in ‘under’ tickets.

NFC Divisional Notes
VegasInsider.com

Seattle at Atlanta

Line Movement: The Falcons opened as 3½-point home favorites last Saturday and the line has been pushed up to 4½ at most betting shops as of Tuesday. The total also jumped up, going from 48½ to 51½.

Seattle Road Record: 3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS
Atlanta Home Record: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams met in Week 6 and Seattle rallied for a 26-24 win over Atlanta from CenturyLink Field as the Seahawks outscored the Falcons 9-0 in the final five minutes of the game. Atlanta had a chance to earn the win but they couldn’t move the football late and didn’t get help from the officials, who missed a questionable pass interference call on Seattle. Despite not winning, the Falcons managed to cover as seven-point road underdogs. The previous meeting between these teams came in the 2013 regular season as Seattle earned a 33-10 road win at Atlanta as a three-point road favorite.

Playoff Notes: Atlanta defeated Seattle 30-28 in the 2012 playoffs, which was the second career playoff start for Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. The Falcons built a 20-0 lead at halftime and were up 27-7 entering the final quarter but the ‘Hawks scored 21 unanswered points. Atlanta regained its composure and managed to win on a late field goal.

Including that loss, Seattle has gone 8-3 in the playoffs with Wilson as its starting quarterback which includes a 3-3 mark away from home. Coincidentally, QB Matt Ryan’s only playoff win came in the aforementioned victory over Seattle. The signal caller is 1-4 all-time in the postseason and that includes a 1-2 mark at the Georgia Dome.

Total Notes: The Falcons were the best ‘over’ bet in the NFL season, going 13-2-1 and that includes a perfect 8-0 mark at home. Atlanta’s averaged 33.8 points per games and the offense was very balanced, ranked third in passing (295.3 YPG) and fifth in rushing (120.5 YPG). Including last week’s result in the Wild Card round versus Detroit, the Seahawks have seen the ‘ under’ go 9-8 and 4-4 on the road. The Seahawks have made three trips to the East Coast and they ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games. Seattle has seen the ‘over’ go 6-5 in 11 playoff games with Wilson and the ‘over’ is 4-2 in road and neutral games. Ryan and the Falcons are 4-1 to the ‘over’ in his five career playoff starts.

Green Bay at Dallas

Line Movement: The Cowboys opened as four-point home favorites last Sunday and the number is now 4½ as of Tuesday. The ‘over’ got some early action with the opener going from 51 to 52.

Green Bay Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
Dallas Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: Dallas defeated Green Bay 30-16 as a five-point road underdog in Week 6 behind a strong running game (191 yards) and an opportunistic defense that forced four turnovers (3 fumbles). Rookie QB Dak Prescott tossed three touchdowns for Dallas, two of the scores going to WR Cole Beasley. Prior to this outcome, Green Bay had won five straight (4-1) games versus the Cowboys with four of those victories coming at Lambeau Field. The Packers captured a shocking 37-36 win at Dallas in the 2013 regular season behind backup quarterback Matt Flynn, who was filling in for the injured Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay outscored Dallas 34-10 in the final two quarters.

Playoff Notes: Including last week’s 38-13 win over the Giants, the Packers are now 9-6 in the playoffs with Rodgers at QB. The signal caller has gone 5-4 in games away from home in the postseason and three of the losses came in overtime. Dallas is 2-8 in its last 10 playoff but went 1-1 in the 2014 playoffs. The loss came against Green Bay, a 26-21 decision at Lambeau Field.

Total Notes: The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in the last six meetings between the pair, which includes the Week 6 matchup earlier this season. Green Bay enters this game on a 5-0 ‘over’ run and its offense is averaging 35 PPG during this span. The Packers have also seen the ‘over’ 6-2 on the road this season. Dallas has leaned to the ‘under’ (10-6) and that includes a 4-4 mark at AT&T Stadium.

Total Talk - Saturday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Wild Card Recap

Total bettors caught a stalemate (2-2) in the Wild Card round and it could’ve been 3-1 to the ‘over’ but the Dolphins and Steelers couldn’t muster up much offense in the second-half. Including those results, the ‘under’ has gone 14-5-1 in the first round the last five years.

Divisional Playoff History

The ‘under’ has gone 7-5 in the last three years of the Divisional Playoff round despite teams putting up points, an average combined score of 46.8 points per game. In the postseason between 2010 and 2012, the average was nearly two touchdowns higher (60 PPG) and to no surprise, the ‘over’ was 11-1 during that span.

Seattle and New England will both be making their fifth straight appearance in this round and they’re both in action on Saturday.

Atlanta at Seattle

This total opened at 48½ and was quickly pushed up within the first day and now sits at 51½ as of Friday. This game is shaping up to be your typical offense vs. defense matchup and most pundits would give the edge to Atlanta’s attack, which leads the league in scoring (33.8 PPG) and is second in total yards (415.8 YPG).

That unit helped the ‘over’ go 13-2-1 this season and that includes a perfect 8-0 mark at the Georgia Dome. Seattle’s defense is ranked second in scoring (17.5 PPG) but the unit isn’t on the same level as previous seasons and key injuries have taken its toll on the group.

While Atlanta’s offense is great, the same can’t be said for a defense. The unit allowed 25.4 PPG this season and the numbers were surprisingly worse at home (27.8 PPG). Seattle’s offense put up 26 at home against Detroit last week in the Wild Card round but its overall road numbers (15.9 PPG) this season haven’t been great.

The Seahawks have produced a 4-4 total mark away from home this season and that includes a 2-1 ‘over’ mark when playing in the Eastern Time Zone. Followers of this year’s “Total Talk” column should be well aware of the “Coast to Coast” angle, which went 15-5 to the ‘over’ this season and is 26-10 (72%) the last two seasons.

Bettors leaning to the ‘under’ on Saturday could be going with “familiarity” angle since Atlanta’s head coach Dan Quinn is a disciple of Seattle head coach Pete Carroll. The pair met earlier this regular season on Oct. 16 from Seattle and the ‘Hawks rallied for a 26-24 victory and the ‘over’ (45½) connected. Including this result, the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings between the pair which includes a playoff matchup in 2013.

That was the first postseason for Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson and also his first trip to the Divisional Playoffs. Since that game, he’s been there four times and the Seahawks have averaged 26.5 PPG.

2016 – Seattle 24 at Carolina 31
2015 – Seattle 31 vs. Carolina 17
2014 – Seattle 23 vs. New Orleans 15
2013 – Seattle 28 at Atlanta 30

Wilson’s counterpart Matt Ryan has played in five playoff games in his career and his only win came against the Falcons. The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in those games. Ryan takes a lot of heat for his postseason record but bettors should note that all four of the teams he lost to went on to the Super Bowl that season and two of them won (Packers, Giants) and the other two just missed (Cardinals, 49ers).

Playing with rest certainly helps and Atlanta has taken advantage of the week off over the years. Since Ryan joined the team in 2008, the Falcons have gone 7-2 when playing with rest and the offense averaged 29.3 PPG which produced a 5-4 mark.

Fearless Prediction: I’m going to stay away from the game ‘over’ (51½) because I can see Seattle trying to establish the run again like they did last Saturday. Wilson’s numbers on the road this season aren’t great and that will keep me away from the total but I will step in with a play on the Atlanta Team Total ‘over’ (28½) in this spot, based on their consistency all season.

Houston at New England

As of Friday, bettors are leaning to the ‘under’ in the late-night game from Foxborough. The total opened 46 and has dropped to 44½. Temperatures are expected be in the mid-twenties but no precipitation is in the forecast.

Many believe that QB Tom Brady is the horse pulling the New England cart and while that’s true, the Patriots defense has been one of the biggest surprises this season. The unit ranked eighth in total yards (326.4) and first in scoring defense (15.6 PPG), which was the third best effort ever under head coach Bill Belichick. What’s more impressive is that they produced those results after trading two of their better players in Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins. The opponents certainly haven’t top notch and most believe Houston isn’t either.

The Patriots were tied as the second best ‘under’ team in the NFL this season with a 10-6 mark. Three of those results did occur without Brady and one of them came against Houston in Week 3. The Patriots blanked the Texans 27-0 at home behind its third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett. The Texans controlled the clock and outgained New England in the loss but three turnovers led to 17 points and that was the game.

Houston enters this game off a 27-14 Wild Card win over Oakland last week and that offensive effort was tied for the most this season. The Texans have struggled on the road this season (2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS) and their 14.8 PPG is ranked second worst in the league. Houston has watched the ‘under’ go 9-6-1 this season, 4-3-1 on the road.

The Texans do have the best total defense (295.5 YPG) in the league and they have a head coach in Bill O’Brien that’s familiar with the Patriots.

New England is 6-2 all-time against Houston and the Texans have only managed to score a total of six points in the last two encounters, both ‘under’ winners. Belichick and company will be playing with rest in this spot and the Patriots did lose at home off the bye this season. In Week 10, they surrendered a 31-24 decision at home to Seattle and the ‘over’ (49.5) connected in that game.

While that could be alarming for some, make a note that the Patriots have crushed in this round of the postseason lately. In the last five appearances in the Divisional Playoffs, New England is averaging 38.2 PPG and not surprisingly the 'over' has gone 5-0.

2016 - New England 27 vs. Kansas City 20 (Over 44½)
2015 – New England 35 vs. Baltimore 31 (Over 47½)
2014 – New England 43 vs. Indianapolis 22 (Over 51½)
2013 - New England 41 vs. Houston 28 (Over 50)
2012 – New England 45 vs. Denver 10 (Over 50½)

This will be Houston’s third trip to the Divisional Playoff round and seventh playoff game in franchise history. The total has gone 3-3 during this span.

Fearless Prediction: The Patriots were listed as double-digit favorites four times this season. They won all of those games and the ‘under’ in cashed in every contest as well. They allowed 10.8 PPG in those games, all wins, and I believe they do the same on Saturday. I’m going to agree with the early money and back the ’under’ (44½) plus I’ll take the Houston Team Total ‘under’ (14½) as well.

Seahawks at Falcons
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Atlanta (11-5 straight up, 10-6 against the spread) is the No. 2 seed in the NFC and is back in the playoffs for the first time in four seasons. If the top-seeded Cowboys beat Green Bay, this will be the last time the Falcons play at the Georgia Dome, as they’re set to move into the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium down the street next season. Seattle is returning to Atlanta where it was eliminated from the NFC semifinals during Russell Wilson’s rookie campaign.

How They Got Here

Seattle (11-5-1 SU, 9-8 ATS) advanced by knocking off Detroit 26-6 as a nine-point home favorite last week. The 32 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 45.5-point total. The Seattle defense held the Lions to 231 yards of total offense, limiting them to a pair of Matt Prater field goals from beyond 50 yards. Cliff Avril had a pair of sacks to bring his season total to a team-high 13.5, while Michael Bennett had one sack for the third consecutive game. Nevertheless, Pete Carroll’s team went into the fourth quarter leading by only four. A 27-yard field goal by Steven Hauschka extended the lead to 13-6 with 14:12 remaining. Thomas Rawls, who finished with 161 rushing yards on 27 carries, scored on a four-yard TD run to put the Seahawks in front of the number midway through the fourth quarter. Wilson completed 23-of-30 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, including a 13-yard scoring strike to Doug Baldwin to put the game on ice with 3:36 left. Baldwin hauled in 11 receptions for 104 yards.

Seattle won the NFC West thanks to a defense that ranks third in the NFL in scoring, holding opponents to 18.2 points per game. The Seahawks are fifth in the NFL in total defense, seventh against the run and eighth versus the pass. They are led veteran LB Bobby Wagner, who led the NFL in tackles with 168.

Wilson started all 16 games, completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 4,219 yards with a 21/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Baldwin had 94 receptions for 1,128 yards and seven TDs, while Jimmy Graham brought down 65 catches for 923 yards and six TDs. Without Marshawn Lynch, the running game struggled. Rawls averaged only 3.2 yards per carry in nine regular-season games, but Seattle had to be encouraged by his 161-yard effort last week.

Atlanta rode the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (33.8 PPG) and the hot right hand of veteran QB Matt Ryan to win the NFC South. Ryan, who had 90/1 odds to win NFL regular-season MVP honors to start the year, is now an enormous -500 ‘chalk’ to take down the award. This is after Ryan endured the worst season of his nine-year career in 2015 when he had a 21/16 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Boston College product and former first-round pick bounced back by posting career-high numbers in passing yards (4,944), completion percentage (69.9%) and TD passes (38) while throwing a career-low seven interceptions. Ryan became the first QB in NFL history to throw TD passes to 13 different players in a season.

Julio Jones has enjoyed another remarkable campaign, making 83 catches for 1,409 yards and six TDs in 14 games. The bye week certainly was beneficial for Jones, who missed back-to-back games in mid-December with turf toe. Mohamed Sanu has proven to be an excellent acquisition by GM Thomas Dimitroff. The former Bengal had 59 receptions for 653 yards and four TDs in 15 games. Taylor Gabriel, who was released by the Browns during training camp, was another outstanding pickup. He had 35 grabs for 579 yards and six TDs in 13 games. Gabriel missed the regular-season finale (foot), a 38-32 home win over New Orleans, but he’s good to go vs. Seattle.

You can’t have a high-octane offense without balance and Atlanta has a pair of dynamic running back to compliment its aerial attack. Devonta Freeman started all 16 games, rushing for 1,079 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He also has 54 receptions for 462 yards and two TDs. Tevin Coleman missed three games with an injury but still produced 520 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 4.4 YPC average. Like Freeman, he’s excellent at catching the ball out of the backfield, pulling down 31 catches for 421 yards and three TDs.

Atlanta starts four rookies on defense, including its top two tacklers. Deion Jones, a LB out of LSU who was a second-round choice, has made a team-high 75 tackles to go with 33 assists, 11 passes defensed, one forced fumble, three interceptions for 165 return yards and two TDs. Keanu Neal, the team’s first round pick from Florida, has 72 tackles, 34 assists, nine passes defensed, five forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and two interceptions. Brian Poole, another Gator rookie who somehow went undrafted, has started nine games and played in all 16. He has 43 tackles, 16 assists, 10 passes defensed, two fumble recoveries, one sack and one interception.

The Falcons’ first-round pick in 2015 was DE Vic Beasley, who was an immense disappointment as a rookie. However, the Clemson product enjoyed a breakout campaign by recording an NFL-best 15.5 sacks. Beasley also had six forced fumbles and one fumble recovery for a TD.

Series History

Atlanta beat Seattle four consecutive times from 2007-2013. Since then, however, the Seahawks have won back-to-back games in this rivalry, including a 26-24 win on Oct 16. Even though it was a loss, this is the game where the Falcons showed me they were legit this season. They easily covered the number as seven-point road underdogs, while the 50 combined points went ‘over the 45.5-point tally.

Dan Quinn’s team trailed 17-3 at intermission, only to outscore Seattle 21-0 in the third quarter. With a 24-23 advantage in the fourth quarter, Ryan was intercepted by Earl Thomas with 3:48 remaining. The Seahawks would get into field-goal territory for Hauschka, who buried a 44-yarder to give them the lead with 1:57 left.

After three straight incompletions from its own 25, Atlanta tried to go deep to Jones on fourth-and-10. Ryan put the ball right on the money and Jones was poised to make the catch in Seattle territory, but Richard Sherman grabbed his arm and basically tackled him. No flag came of it, however, and the Seahawks won the nail-biter.

Ryan connected on 27-of-42 throws for 335 yards and three TDs with one interception. Jones had seven catches for 139 yards and one TD. Meanwhile, Wilson completed 25-of-37 passes for 270 yards, while Graham had six receptions for 89 yards. Avril had a pair of sacks for the winners.

Four years ago, these clubs met at the Ga. Dome with a spot in the NFC Championship Game at stake. Wilson orchestrated a frenetic comeback in the fourth quarter, rallying his team from a 27-7 deficit into the lead on Lynch’s two-yard TD run with 31 seconds left. Wilson had scored on a one-yard TD run at the 13:01 mark to make it 27-14. Next, he found Zach Miller for a three-yard TD pass to trim the deficit to 27-21. However, the Falcons quickly moved into position for a game-winning field goal after Lynch’s go-ahead TD run. Matt Bryant, who has led all NFL kickers in points this year, buried the 49-yarder with eight ticks remaining to give his team a 30-28 win. Seattle did get the money, though, as a 2.5-point underdog.

Wilson threw for 285 yards and two TDs with one interception, while Ryan had 250 passing yards with a 3/2 TD-INT ratio. Wilson also rushed for 60 yards and one TD on seven attempts.

The ‘over’ is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings.

Playoff History

Atlanta is in the postseason for the 13th time in franchise history. The Falcons have only been to one Super Bowl, getting routed 34-19 by Denver in January of 1999. I was in the stands at the NFC Championship Game four years ago when they raced out to a 17-0 lead over San Francisco. However, the 49ers would rally to win 28-24, stopping a fourth-down play with Atlanta just 10 yards away from the wining score in the final minute.

Atlanta owns a 3-2 record in five postseason games at the Ga. Dome. Ryan was only at the steering wheel for one of those, the aforementioned triumph over Seattle. The franchise signal caller is just 1-4 in five playoff games.

Seattle owns a 16-14 record in 30 playoff games. This is the team’s fifth consecutive trip to the postseason. Since the loss at Atlanta four years ago, Seattle has won seven of nine playoff games, including a 43-8 win over Denver at Super Bowl XLVIII on Feb. 2 of 2014. The Seahawks returned to the Super Bowl a year later, only to drop a gut-wrenching 28-24 decision to New England when Wilson was intercepted at the goal line in the final minute.

Line Movement

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Atlanta as a four-point favorite with a total of 49.5 last Sunday morning. In less than three hours, the total was up to 51. By Tuesday afternoon, it was adjusted to 51.5 where it remained as of early Friday night.

As for the side, it moved to 4.5 by Sunday afternoon and was up to five on Tuesday night. Then on Friday, it dipped to 4.5 and briefly was at four before coming back up to 4.5 as of early Friday night.

The Seahawks were available on the money line for a +180 return (risk $100 to win $180). For first-half bets, the Falcons were favored by three (with a -115 or -120 price at most spots) with a total of 26 points.

Handicapper’s Corner

VI’s Kevin Rogers had this take on Saturday’s showdown: “This is an especially big game for Matt Ryan, who has lost four of five career playoff contests. Coincidentally, Ryan’s only playoff victory came in the wild, last-minute win over the Seahawks in the 2012 divisional round. It’s been a long time coming for Ryan and the Falcons, who haven’t reached the postseason since 2012, facing a Seattle team that was held to 10 points or less four times on the road this season.

Props

Sportsbook.ag has the following totals for Wilson: Completions (23.5, -115 odds either way), Passing yards (268.5, -115 either way) and TD passes (1.5, ‘over’ -150, ‘under’ +120). Baldwin’s totals are 6.5 for receptions and 76.5 for receiving yards, while Graham’s are 4.5 and 57.5.

Ryan’s totals look like this: 24.5 for completions, 290.5 for passing yards and 2.5 (‘under’ -165, ‘over’ +120) for TD passes. Jones’s numbers are 6.5 for completions and 97.5 for receiving yards.

There are adjusted line for gamblers who are extremely bullish on one side (or total) over the other. For those digging Seattle, it can be had at -3.5 points for a +240 return (risk $100 to win $240). On the flips side, the Falcons can be had at -14.5 for a +280 payout. Bettors can get on the ‘over’ at 58.5 points for a +210 return, or they can go ‘under’ 44.5 for a +210 payout.

Future Odds

Atlanta has the third-shortest odds to win Super Bowl LI at Sportsbook.ag, where it is available for a +750 return (risk $100 to win $750). Seattle has the next-to-longest odds (14/1) at the offshore book. The Falcons have +250 odds to win the NFC, while the Seahawks are at +525. Ryan has the third-shortest odds (12/1) to win Super Bowl LI MVP honors, while Wilson has 20/1 odds to win the same award. Freeman (35/1), Jones (35/1), Rawls (75/1), Baldwin (100/1), Vic Beasley (200/1), Sherman (250/1), Bennett (250/1), Gabriel (250/1) and Sanu (500/1) are also on the board.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

VI cohort Chris David pointed out this nugget to me. The four teams who have defeated Ryan in the playoffs have all gone on to play in the Super Bowl. Two of those teams, the Packers in 2011 and the Giants in 2012, won the Lombardi Trophy.

Seattle has faced five teams that made the postseason, winning four of those contests but going 2-3 ATS. We should note, however, that only one of those five games against playoff teams was on the road, a 38-10 loss at Green Bay as three-point favorites.

Atlanta has played four games against teams that made the playoffs, going 2-2 both SU and ATS. The defeats came at Seattle and vs. Kansas City. The Chiefs scored TDs on a fake punt, a fourth-and-goal play, a pick-six and a pick-two. When Atlanta went ahead 28-27 late in the fourth quarter, Ryan was intercepted on the two-point conversion attempt by Eric Berry, who took the pick back to the house in front of friends and family in his hometown for the two points that gave his team the victory. The wins came at Oakland (35-28) and vs. Green Bay (33-32).

Both teams are missing a key member out of the secondary. Thomas is out for the Seahawks, while Desmond Trufant is out for the Falcons.

Ryan has only missed two starts in his entire career.

Ryan has only five rushing TDs in his career, none since 2012.

Seattle went 3-4-1 SU and 3-5 ATS on the road this year.

The ‘over’ is 9-8 overall for the Seahawks, 4-4 in their road games. They saw their games average combined scores of 40.4 PPG.

The ‘over’ has been a monster money maker in Atlanta games, going 13-2-1 overall. The Falcons have seen the ‘over’ hit at a perfect 8-0 clip in their home games, with their lowest combined score in a home game (54) coming in a 41-13 win over San Francisco.

Texans at Patriots
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The top-seeded Patriots are back from their playoff bye as New England is laying more two touchdowns in the AFC Divisional Round against Houston. The Texans seem like the sacrificial lamb on Saturday as New England is expected to cruise to the AFC Championship, but Houston has won four of its past five games, including last Saturday’s Wild Card rout of Oakland.

HOW THEY GOT HERE

Houston (10-7 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) captured its second consecutive AFC South title this season, in spite of a 9-7 regular season record. The Texans began the season with plenty of hope at the quarterback position with Super Bowl champion Brock Osweiler signing a four-year, $72 million deal. However, Osweiler underachieved in his first full season as a starting NFL quarterback by not throwing for more than 270 yards in a game, while throwing 15 touchdown passes and 16 interceptions.

Osweiler led the Texans past the Raiders in the Wild Card round, 27-14 in spite of 168 yards passing. The Houston quarterback connected with wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins on a two-yard touchdown, while Osweiler ran for a score in the fourth quarter to put the game out of reach. Houston finished with an 8-1 home record this season, but stumbled to a 2-6 mark away from NRG Stadium. In four of those losses, the Texans were limited to 13 points or fewer.

New England (14-2 SU, 13-3 ATS) is riding a seven-game winning streak, while allowing a total of 20 points in its final three victories. After sitting out the first four games due to the Deflategate suspension, quarterback Tom Brady put together another outstanding season by throwing 28 touchdown passes and only two interceptions, while racking up 3,554 yards. What’s even more impressive is the 13-3 ATS mark overall, including a 4-1 ATS home record with Brady under center.

The Patriots took care of business as a double-digit favorite this season by winning and covering in all four opportunities. Granted, the Pats totally outmatched the Browns, 49ers, Jets, and Rams, but the defense yielded a total of 43 points in those victories. New England showcases its first 1,000 yard rusher since 2012 as LeGarrette Blount compiled a career-high 1,161 yards along with 18 touchdowns. Blount reached the end zone in 13 of 16 games this season, including five consecutive games with a score.

SERIES HISTORY

The Texans have had much success with the Patriots since entering the league in 2002 by going 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS. The latest setback in Week 3 at Gillette Stadium as New England blanked Houston, 27-0 in the pick-em role. Brady sat due to his suspension, but back-up Jacoby Brissett led the Patriots on three touchdown drives, while Blount found the end zone twice. The Patriots’ offense gained only 282 yards, but New England’s defense forced three Houston turnovers to hand the Texans their only shutout of the season.

Houston and New England are meeting for the second time in the postseason ever as the Patriots drilled the Texans in the AFC Divisional round in 2012 by a 41-28 count. Brady threw three touchdown passes in that victory as 9½-point favorites, while the Patriots grabbed a 38-13 lead in the fourth quarter. New England owns a perfect 4-0 record lifetime against Houston at Gillette Stadium with all four wins coming by double-digits.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

For the 13th time in 14 seasons, the Patriots are in the postseason as the only missed season in this stretch was 2008 when Brady tore his ACL in Week 1. Brady owns a 22-9 playoff record in his career, including a 15-3 SU and 9-8-1 ATS mark at Gillette Stadium. New England has won its playoff opener in each of the past five seasons, while scoring at least 35 points four times in this span.

The Texans are playing in their seventh playoff game in franchise history, going 3-3 in their first six postseason contests. Houston has never won a road playoff game, going 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in those matchups.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook listed the Patriots at -16 on Monday afternoon, while the total opened at 44½. The line has slightly dipped to 15½ at the Westgate, but the total hasn’t moved much as William Hill has the total at 45. The first half line opened at New England -9½ (-120) at the Westgate, as that number has increased -10.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says it hard to make a great case for Houston, “The Texans are the ultimate outlier in this season’s final eight, ranking 26th in the league in scoring differential in the regular season while the other seven remaining teams in the playoffs were the top seven scoring differential teams. Houston’s win last week certainly deserves some scrutiny with the Raiders left with rookie Connor Cook starting at quarterback in his first ever NFL start and predictably he had a costly turnover that helped Houston generate and early lead they held throughout the game.”

From a pointspread perspective, Nelson notes where this line ranks in postseason history, “This spread is poised to be the largest playoff number since Super Bowl XXIX (1994-95 season) when the 49ers bested the Chargers, covering at -19. The last six NFL playoff favorites of 14 or more points have all covered, but prior to that, the heavy underdogs had a great run of success. New England has hosted a divisional round playoff game 10 times in the Belichick/Brady era, going 9-1 SU and covering in four of the last five.”

PROPS

Houston

B. Osweiler – Total Completions
19½ - OVER (-110)
19½- UNDER (-110)

B. Osweiler – Total Touchdown Passes + Interceptions
2 – OVER (-110)
2 – UNDER (-110)

New England

T. Brady – Total Gross Passing Yards
285½ - OVER (-110)
285½ - UNDER (-110)

T. Brady – Total Touchdown Passes
2½ - OVER (+130)
2½ - UNDER (-150)

T. Brady – Will he throw an Inteception?
YES (+110)
NO (-130)

J. Edelman – Total Receiving Yards
72½ - OVER (-110)
72½ - UNDER (-110)

FUTURE ODDS

The Patriots opened the season as one of three favorites listed at 8/1 to capture the Super Bowl title in Houston at the Westgate Superbook. New England is the clear-cut favorite at 7/5 odds (Bet $100 to win $140) to win the Super Bowl, while Houston is the longest shot on the board at 60/1 odds to win it all.

Packers at Cowboys
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The final game of the divisional round takes place at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas as the Packers and Cowboys renew their rivalry with a spot in the NFC Championship game up for grabs. Dallas rode rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott to an NFC East title and the top seed in the playoffs, while Green Bay is seeking its third conference championship appearance since 2010.

HOW THEY GOT HERE

Green Bay (11-6 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) began the season with a 4-2 record, but fell apart in November with four consecutive losses. The defense was chewed up by allowing 33, 31, 47, and 42 points, but the Packers turned the corner after Thanksgiving by routing Philadelphia on a Monday night, 27-13 as four-point underdogs. Since that victory over the Eagles, the Packers haven’t lost a game by winning seven consecutive games, including a 38-13 blowout of the Giants last Sunday in the NFC Wild Card round.

The Packers easily cashed as five-point favorites in spite of holding a 14-13 advantage in the third quarter. Green Bay scored the final 24 points of the game as quarterback Aaron Rodgers connected with Randall Cobb on a pair of touchdowns in the second half (three in total). Rodgers finished the day by throwing for 362 yards and four touchdowns, including the Hail Mary toss to Cobb to close out the first half. The Packers finished their home schedule with a 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS mark, while scoring 30 points or more in each of the past five contests.

Dallas (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) captured its second division title in three seasons and their most victories in a season since going 13-3 in 2007. Prescott replaced the injured Tony Romo in the preseason and retained the starting quarterback job throughout the season by throwing for 3,667 yards and 23 touchdowns. Elliott busted out for 1,631 and the rushing title in his debut season out of Ohio State, while racking up seven games of 100 yards rushing or more.

Following an opening week one-point setback to the Giants, the Cowboys won and covered their next nine games, while winning 11 consecutive games before falling to New York again in Week 14. Dallas is currently riding a 1-5 ATS slump, including non-covers in home victories over Washington and Tampa Bay. The Cowboys cashed in five of eight games at AT&T Stadium, as Jason Garrett’s squad topped the 26-point mark in each of its past seven home contests.

SERIES HISTORY

The Cowboys made their biggest statement during their 11-game winning streak with a 30-16 triumph at Lambeau Field in Week 6 as five-point underdogs. Dallas grabbed a 17-6 halftime lead thanks to a Prescott touchdown connection with Brice Butler from 20 yards out, one of three touchdown passes by the former Mississippi State standout. Elliott compiled 157 yards on 28 carries, while the Cowboys played without injured receiver Dez Bryant.

The Packers had won the previous five meetings with the Cowboys prior to that loss in October, as Green Bay is making its first trip to AT&T Stadium since a 37-36 comeback victory in 2013. Rodgers missed that game due to injury as the Packers’ pro bowler is making his first start in Dallas since winning Super Bowl XLV in 2011.

The last time the Packers and Cowboys met in the postseason came two seasons ago in this round at Lambeau Field. The highlight from Green Bay’s 26-21 victory was the disallowed catch by Bryant in the four minutes remaining that would have set up Dallas for first and goal at the one-yard line. The Cowboys cashed as 5½-point underdogs, but fell short of its first NFC Championship appearance since 1995, as Dallas coincidentally knocked off Green Bay that season to advance to Super Bowl XXX against Pittsburgh.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

Dallas hasn’t had much luck in the divisional round recently, losing six straight times since 1996. The Cowboys have won each of their past two home playoff contests, beating the Lions in 2014 and the Eagles in 2009, both in the Wild Card round.

Rodgers has cashed in five of six opportunities as a road underdog, including a pair of covers at Washington and Arizona last season. Green Bay is in the playoffs for the eighth straight season with Rodgers under center, owning an 8-6 record, while losing three times in overtime. Since winning Super Bowl XLV six seasons ago, the Packers have dropped three of their past four playoff games away from Lambeau Field.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Cowboys opened as four-point favorites at Las Vegas Westgate Superbook, but that number has jumped up to five thanks to money and Green Bay wide receiver Jordy Nelson sitting out with a rib injury. The total opened up at 52, but that number slowly moved up to 52½ at several books.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says the Packers hope to turn around their recent playoff woes, “Aaron Rodgers has a Super Bowl under his belt and nine playoff wins, though also six playoff losses and a 3-5 record since winning the Super Bowl six seasons ago including going 1-3 in road games. His career playoff quarterback rating is 100.3 with 31 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, boosting those numbers with a great performance last week. Rodgers did take five sacks last week and with the limited running game for the Packers he could be vulnerable again, especially with Nelson out of action.”

From an ATS perspective, Nelson breaks down how top seeds have fared in this round, “This seems like a small spread for the NFC’s #1 seed, but in two of the last four years, the NFC’s top seed has been an even smaller favorite in the divisional round. Green Bay hasn’t been a particularly good underdog in recent years with an 8-12-1 ATS run in the role (though 3-1 this season), but since 2010 Dallas is just 12-29-1 ATS as a home favorite, though 4-2-1 ATS this season.”

PROPS

Green Bay

A. Rodgers – Total Completions
25½ - OVER (-110)
25½ - UNDER (-110)

A. Rodgers – Total Touchdown Passes
2½ - OVER (+140)
2½ - UNDER (-160)

Dallas

D. Prescott – Total Gross Passing Yards
239½ - OVER (-110)
239½ - UNDER (-110)

D. Prescott – Total Touchdown Passes
1½ - OVER (-110)
1½ - UNDER (-110)

E. Elliott – Total Rushing Yards
103½ - OVER (-110)
103½ - UNDER (-110)

D. Bryant – Will he score a Touchdown?
YES (+105)
NO (-125)

FUTURE ODDS

Dallas opened the season at 14/1 odds to win Super Bowl LI at the Westgate Superbook, as those odds have dropped to 9/2 with the Cowboys the favorite to capture the NFC title. Green Bay remains constant at 10/1 odds to grab the title, the same odds as the beginning of the season at the Westgate.

Steelers at Chiefs
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-1/44.5)

Once Oakland’s Derek Carr was lost for the season, these two became the biggest threats to New England’s quest to reach its seventh Super Bowl under Bill Belichick and eight title game in two decades. Although Pittsburgh crushed the Chiefs at home on Oct. 2, that result seems like ancient history when you consider how much more explosive Kansas City has looked over the past three months.

They’ll be the home team this time, having finished one game ahead of the Steelers despite the head-to-head loss. Kansas City enjoyed its bye week while Pittsburgh thrived in a relatively easy 30-12 win last Sunday afternoon that was clouded by QB Ben Roethlisberger injuring his ankle while being picked off on the team’s last meaningful drive. He left Heinz Field in a walking boot but was confident he’d be fine and practiced this week without incident.

Although the Chiefs will undoubtedly look to test his mobility, this divisional playoff showdown’s most important variable won’t be Big Ben’s ankle, but rather, nasty weather that forced this game to be rescheduled from its original time slot that had it set to start at noon CT. An ice storm is expected to have its way with the Kansas City area in the afternoon, so in what was described as a move made in the public’s best interest, the hope is for clearer conditions in what becomes the latest Sunday postseason start ever.

You can argue solid points over which team will be affected most by inclement weather and a slippery field, but the fact is that whoever handles Mother Nature’s obstacles best will end up punching their ticket to next Sunday’s AFC Championship game at Foxboro.

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin and Roethlisberger believe they thrive in cold weather and have historically held up well in steady snow and driving rain, so they’re confident. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley called a fantastic game against the Chiefs in Week 4, but had produced an average of just 16.3 points in the previous three meetings with the team that gave him his only head coaching opportunity from 2009-11. Even if the weather wasn’t expected to be the x-factor it’s likely going to be, you would’ve likely seen Andy Reid and Haley to rely on a conservative approach utilizing short, quick passes and plenty of runs.

They figure to play it close to the vest until someone makes a mistake, but both teams have plenty of home-run hitters who can generate big plays if a defender slips and misses a tackle. Although Roethlisberger’s deep-ball threat, Sammie Coates, may be hampered by snow, ice and wind, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown can turn it upfield at any time and have proven capable of steadily gaining yardage in small chunks consistently. Bell ran for a Steelers postseason-record 167 yards against the Dolphins and has a capable backup in D’Angelo Williams that can also take some carries, so play action should wind up being an effective weapon after a steady dose of the ground game is administered.

Kansas City QB Alex Smith’s ability to extend plays and drives with his feet may be mitigated by a Steelers pass rush that recorded five sacks of Miami’s Matt Moore last week, coming from all angles and off disguised blitzes. Expect the Chiefs game plan to hinge on him getting the ball out quickly to Jeremy Maclin, rookie speedster Tyreek Hill and star tight end Travis Kelce, one of the top athletes at his position.

Defensively, Kansas City has gotten elite play out of corner Marcus Peters, the NFL’s leader in interceptions, as well as All-Pro safety Eric Berry. They’ve got elite performers like Dontari Poe, Tamba Hali, Dee Ford and Justin Houston healthy and set to wreak havoc, so the Steelers offense won’t have many plays where they’ll feel comfortable when you consider the level of competition and the road atmosphere that awaits.

Pittsburgh’s key to success may be getting off to another great start like they did last week, when they scored on their first three drives, matching a feat they managed in the first quarter of their win over the Chiefs. Five different defensive starters will take the field for Kansas City this time around, and the homefield edge should aid the cause in attempting to disrupt the Steelers offensive timing. Despite one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL, the Chiefs are just 2-5 in home playoff games, the worst percentage in league history. The last time they prevailed at Arrowhead in the postseason came in the 1993 Wild Card round, when Joe Montana helped deliver an overtime win over Neil O’Donnell-led Pittsburgh.

Yep, that was a long time ago.

LINE MOVEMENT

This line opened as a pick'em or with Pittsburgh laying a point at most shops, but enough money came in on the Chiefs at home that they eventually got up as high as 2-point favorites before they settled in as a 1-point chalk entering Saturday. The money line hasn't gone higher than KC -135 and has decreased down to the -120 range, so buying the point may just be the way to go rather than flirting with a push if you're riding Kansas City. The total opened at 46.5 but has moved down to 44-44.5 due to the weather forecast. For the season, both teams surpassed their projected preseason win totals. The Chiefs surpassed the 9.5 set by the WestgateLV SuperBook rather easily, while Pittsburgh climbed over 10.5 in Week 17 in that comeback win in OT against Cleveland. Both paid off as divisional winners. The Steelers paid off 20-to-21 odds at the start of the season to win the AFC North, while the Chiefs were 8-to-5 to win the AFC West. Currently, WestgateLV has Pittsburgh and Kansas City at 4-to-1 to win the AFC and 8-to-1 to capture Super Bowl LI.

INJURY CONCERNS

Beyond the concerns over Roethlisberger's ankle, the Raiders are relatively healthy after last week's dominant win over Miami. The team was more optimistic about TE Ladarius Green returning from a concussion last week than they are today, so odds are he'll be unavailable going forward. Safety Shamarko Thomas has also been out wtith a concussion. Injuries could affect the return game since Fitz Toussaint (concussion) is questionable and CB Justin Gilbert, who may take his place, is dealing with a shoulder injury but should play. DE Ricardo Mathews is nursing an injured ankle. Left tackle Donald Penn, who has been among the best at his position this season, hasn't practiced and may be a game-time decision with a knee injury.

The Chiefs suffered key injuries to LB Derrick Johnson and DT Jaye Howard in December, losing them for the season. Although guys have been banged up, Kansas City has been able to get players healed up over the bye week and will have LB Justin Houston, WR Jeremy Maclin and RB Spencer Ware are healthy all good to go after getting rest. Only rookie LB Dadi Nicolas (patella) is out with a new injury.

116 DAYS AGO...

These teams took the field together for the Week 4 Sunday night game at Heinz Field and produced a laugher. The Steelers scored three touchdowns on their first six offensive snaps, piling on with an early two-point coversion that allowed them to build a 22-0 lead after a quarter, setting a franchise record. The score was 36-0 after three quarters and ended up 43-14 only because Smith hit Kelce with a short TD pass with four seconds remaining.

Pittsburgh was coming off an embarrassing 34-3 loss in Philly that remains one of the season's most puzzling results and its worst loss in 27 years, so that probably factored into the ferocity with which it took the Chiefs apart. Roethlisberger threw five touchdown passes and went 22-for-27 for 300 yards while getting 178 yards from Bell, who was playing his first game after being suspended three games for a substance abuse violation.

Rest assured, the Chiefs won't come out as flat here. Ironically, Hill scored and got the most action he'd received as a rookie in that game, so it wasn't a lost cause since he became such an integral part of the offense over the final two months. Kansas City enjoyed its bye week following the blowout loss, got focused and ran off five consecutive wins en route to its 10-2 finish. Ware fumbled to open the floodgates for the Steelers, so expect ball control to be foremost on his mind.

RECENT MEETINGS (Pittsburgh 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS last five; UNDER 4-1)

10/2/16 Pittsburgh 43-14 vs. Kansas City (PIT -3.5, 48.5)
10/25/15 Kansas City 23-13 vs. Pittsburgh (KC -3, 41.5)
12/21/14 Pittsburgh 20-12 vs. Kansas City (PIT -2.5, 49)
11/12/12 Pittsburgh 16-13 OT vs. Kansas City (PIT -12.5, 39.5)
11/27/11 Pittsburgh 13-9 at Kanas City (PIT -10.5, 40.5

PROPS

Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride with both running backs listed below finding the end zone.

Will LeVeon Bell score TD?: (-135 yes/+115 no)
Will Tyreek Hill score TD?: (+115 yes/-135 no)
Alex Smith completions 21.5: (-110 o/u)
Ben Roethlisberger passing yards 265.5: (-110 o/u)
Ben Roethlisberger TD passes 1.5: (-160 over/ +140 under)
Alex Smith TD Passes/INT 1.5: (-155 over/+135 under)
Total combined sacks 4: (+110 over, -130 under)
First score of game will be: (-150 TD, +130 other)
Total points: Chiefs 23, Steelers 21.5 (-110 o/u)

STEELERS AS A ROAD DOG

Pittsburgh was favored in every road game it played this season and went 5-3 SU and ATS, winning and covering its last four outright. The Steelers were last a road dog in last season's divisional playoff round, losing at Denver 23-16 as a 7-point dog. They went 3-3 SU/3-2-1 ATS as a road underdog last season, which includes the 23-13 loss in their last visit to Kansas City.

CHIEFS AS A HOME FAVORITE

The Chiefs have been a home favorite in all eight of their Arrowhead contests this season, but covered just three times. Two of those win/covers did come in December, helping avoid an awful season against the number despite a 6-2 mark straight up. They were just 3-5 ATS despite winning their final six home games last season, so while they've been excellent at home under Reid (23-9), they haven't been profitable.

Total Talk - Sunday
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Similar to Saturday’s slate, the two playoff games scheduled on Sunday are rematches from this year’s regular season and both matchups have one total going down and the other going up.

Of the four teams in action, Green Bay and Pittsburgh have the most playoff experience in this round while both Kansas City and Dallas enter as newbies.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

The Steelers blasted the Chiefs 43-14 in Week 4 as 3½-point home favorites in wire-to-wire fashion and the ‘over’ (48½) cashed with the help of a 21-point fourth quarter. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tossed five touchdowns in the win and posted a QBR (quarterback rating) of 98.3, his highest rating of the season. Running back Le’Veon Bell also went nuts in the game, racking up 178 total yards on 23 touches.

Since that setback, the Chiefs only allowed four other opponents to score more than 20 points in their final 12 games and only one team was able to do so at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City surrendered 15.8 points per game at home this season, which was the fourth best mark in the league. That production helped the ‘under’ go 6-2.

Even though Pittsburgh’s offense is widely considered a juggernaut, the team has watched the ‘under’ go 11-6 this season and that includes a 6-2 record away from home. Defensively, the Steelers have been better on the road (19.6 PPG) and the offense is averaging nearly a touchdown less on the road (21.6 PPG).

Kansas City’s offense (24.3 PPG) isn’t great and QB Alex Smith receives a lot of criticism and his playoff record (2-3) is nothing to boast about. However, he’s tossed 11 touchdowns and only one interception in those games and the three losses came by a combined 11 points.

Regular NFL bettors are well aware how good Kansas City head coach Andy Reid has been off the bye in his career. The record is eye opening at 19-2 and that includes a 3-1 mark in four seasons with the Chiefs. With the Eagles, the club earned a playoff bye three times and Philadelphia won all three of those games and the ‘under’ cashed in each contest as well behind an Eagles defense that only allowed 6, 17 and 14 points.

The last playoff win at Arrowhead Stadium took place in 1994 when coincidentally the Chiefs beat the Steelers 27-24 in overtime behind legendary QB Joe Montana. Since then, KC is 0-4 in its last six playoff games at home and 0-6 ATS in the previous six. The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in those games.

Including last week’s Wild Card win over Miami, the Steelers are now 7-5 in the playoffs under head coach Mike Tomlin. The ‘under’ cashed last Saturday and that was the third consecutive ticket to the low side for Pittsburgh. Prior to this mini run, the Steelers were on an 8-0-1 ‘over’ streak in the playoffs under Tomlin.

Even though the first meeting this season went ‘over’ with a late push, this series has seen the ‘under’ cash in the previous four encounters with an average combined score of 29.8 PPG.

If there is a game that could be affected by inclement weather this weekend, then this is the one. There’s a 90 percent chance of precipitation and temperatures are expected in the low thirties, even lower with the wind chill. The game was expected to start at 1:05 p.m. ET but has been changed to a 8:20 p.m. ET due to an ice storm that will hit Kansas City this weekend.

Fearless Prediction: This total opened 46½ and is already down to 43½ as of Friday and I expect it to drop further. Even though Pittsburgh has won eight straight, it hasn’t been tested during that run on either side of the ball. I believe the Chiefs will avenge the earlier loss and stifle the Steelers in this game. I’m playing the Team Total ‘under’ for both the Steelers (21) and Chiefs (22½) and will play the game ‘under’ (43½) as well.

Green Bay at Dallas

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay joked with VegasInsider.com earlier this week saying, "I think I'm going to get a tattoo that says Packers and Over. It happens all the time, so I might as well."

Based on the early betting trends, the public is riding the Green Bay-Over combination again this Sunday and the total has been pushed up to 52½ from 51 as of Friday.

These teams met in Week 6 and Dallas defeated Green Bay 30-16 behind a strong running game (191 yards) and an opportunistic defense that forced four turnovers (3 fumbles). Rookie QB Dak Prescott tossed three touchdowns for Dallas, two of the scores going to WR Cole Beasley. The total on that game closed at 47½ and the ‘under’ connected.

That was only the second time this season that the Packers were held under 20 points. Since that result, the Packers have seen the ‘over’ go 9-2 in their last 11 game and that includes a run of five straight.

During the current five-game ‘over’ streak, Green Bay is averaging 35 PPG and QB Aaron Rodgers has tossed 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions during this span. The Packers have also seen the ‘over’ go 6-2 on the road this season and their suspect defense (28.2 PPG) certainly contributed to that result.

The Dallas defense has been successful with a “bend but don’t break” style this season. Even though they’re allowing 343.9 total yards (Ranked 14th), the unit is ranked fifth in scoring defense (19.1 PPG).

Offensively, the Cowboys (26.3 PPG) have been very balanced this season despite starting a rookie QB and RB. Dak Prescott will be the second rookie QB playing in this year’s postseason and youngsters have struggled in these games. Since 1983, there have been 23 playoff games with a rookie starting at QB and those teams averaged 17.4 PPG.

Dallas has watched the ‘under’ go 10-6 this season and that includes a 4-4 mark at AT&T Stadium.

The Cowboys did make the 2015 postseason but the club is still in new territory with earning a bye to the Divisional Playoff round. Since head coach Jason Garrett took over in 2011, Dallas has gone 3-3 with rest in the regular season and the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in those games. The offense has been decent (24.8 PPG) during this span but the defense has been suspect (25 PPG). If you rewind back to Week 8, the Eagles had the Cowboys on the ropes but Dallas managed to escape with a 29-23 overtime victory at home while the ‘over’ (44) hit before the extra session began.

Green Bay has gone 5-4 in games away from home in the postseason under QB Aaron Rodgers and three of the losses came in overtime. The ‘over’ has gone 6-3.

Including the first encounter this season, the Packers and Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in their last six meetings. The pair met in the 2015 playoffs and Green Bay earned a 26-21 victory over Dallas and the ‘under’ (52½) cashed.

Fearless Prediction: Even though the Green Bay offense is banged up with two key players (Nelson, Montgomery), I still believe Rodgers will have plenty of time against a weak Dallas pass rush. With that being said, I’d lean to the Green Bay Team Total ‘over’ (23½).

NFC Divisional Playoffs Betting Preview: Packers at Cowboys
By Covers.com

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 52)

The Green Bay Packers painted themselves into a corner earlier this season on the heels of a four-game losing streak, prompting Aaron Rodgers to claim the club could "run the table" in order to gain its eighth straight playoff appearance. Six victories to end the campaign and a convincing rout in the wild-card game have the Packers surging into the NFC Divisional Round for Sunday's date with the well-rested Dallas Cowboys.

"They were off last week, and they're hosting the game (Sunday), so there's extra pressure on them as the No. 1 seed to win," Rodgers told reporters. "And we're coming in with a lot of confidence and riding the streak. We're feeling good about the way we've been playing." With good reason, as Rodgers threw for 362 yards and four touchdowns - three to wideout Randall Cobb - in a 38-13 victory over the New York Giants last Sunday. While Dallas liberally has rested its stars dating back to a Week 17 loss to Philadelphia, its rookie Pro Bowl tandem of quarterback Dak Prescott and tailback Ezekiel Elliott (NFL-best 1,631 yards, 5.1 per carry) shredded Green Bay at Lambeau Field in a 30-16 victory on Oct. 16. Prescott threw for three touchdowns while Elliott gashed the Packers' then top-ranked rush defense for 157 yards in the win.

POWER RANKINGS: Packers (-4) - Cowboys (-5.5) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -4.5

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 4-point home favorites and that line has been bet up half point to 4.5. The total hit the board at 51.5 and has inched up to 52. View the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Much like the Steelers, the Packers carry a 7-game win streak into the Big ‘D’ where they will look to avenge a 30-16 home loss suffered to the Cowboys in mid-October. Should Aaron Rodgers' magical touch continue (19 TDs and zero INTs in current win skein) the Cowboys will need to rely on a defense that is 22 YPG better than Green Bay’s stop-unit. The loss of star WR Jordy Nelson could prove pivotal against a hungry Dallas squad that had dropped 8 of its last 10 playoff games." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Cowboys -4 and took some sharp action at that number on the Cowboys that pushed us up to -5. We have since came down to Packers +4.5 as we are seeing over 65% of the action coming in on the Packers to cover. I can see this line coming back to to the opening number of Cowboys -4 as we get closer to game time." - Michael Stewart at CarbonSports.ag

INJURY REPORT:

Packers - LB Blake Martinez (probable, knee), WR Jeff Janis (probable, quadricep), WR Randall Cobb (probable, ankle), LB Clay Matthews (probable, shoulder), RB Ty Montgomery (probable, knee), G T.J. Lang (questionable, foot), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), LB Jayrone Elliott (questionable, hand), CB Quinten Rollins (questionable, concussion), CB Josh Hawkins (questionable, undisclosed), RB James Starks (doubtful, concussion), WR Jordy Nelson (out, ribs)

Cowboys - CB Morris Claiborne (probable, hernia), DE Demarcus Lawrence (probable, back), DL Cedric Thornton (probable, ankle), LB Justin Durant (probable, elbow), DT Tyrone Crawford (probable, shoulder), DT Terrell McClain (probable, ankle), OT Tyron Smith (probable, knee), OL La’el Collins (questionable, toe)

ABOUT THE PACKERS (11-6 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 11-6 O/U): Rodgers remains confident facing Dallas' 26th-ranked pass defense despite potentially playing without trusted wideout Jordy Nelson (NFL-leading 14 receiving TDs), who sustained a rib injury early in the wild-card game. Davante Adams set career highs with 75 catches, 997 yards and 12 touchdowns this season and had seven receptions for 117 yards and a score in a postseason encounter with Dallas two years ago. Cobb made eight catches for 116 yards in that playoff game versus the Cowboys and showed his ankle injury is a thing of the past with his performance last week, while his versatility to play in the slot or on the outside opens doors for promising rookie Geronimo Allison.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS, 6-10 O/U): While Prescott and Elliott have been the talk of the town this season, receiver Dez Bryant found himself taken back to January 2015 shortly after learning that he'd be facing the Packers in a divisional-round playoff game. "Everywhere I go, I still hear it 'til this day: It was a catch," the 28-year-old Bryant said of his overturned reception late in the fourth quarter in the Cowboys' loss. Bryant may find the sledding tough on Sunday as he is expected to be shadowed by cornerback LaDarius Gunter, who limited Giants star Odell Beckham Jr. to four catches and 28 yards last week.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Cowboys are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas.
* Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Dallas.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road underdog Packers with 65 percent of the action and the Over is getting 71 percent of the totals wagers.

AFC Divisional Playoffs Betting Preview: Steelers at Chiefs
By Covers.com

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 43.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers flashed their offensive might last week in a drubbing of Miami in their wild-card game, but their best offensive performance of the season came in a 29-point thrashing of the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4. The Chiefs get a chance to exact some revenge - this time on their home field - when they host Pittsburgh in the AFC Divisional Round on Sunday.

Kansas City fell into a 22-point hole after one quarter in the 43-14 loss at Pittsburgh, but it recovered to win 10 of its final 12 games to claim the AFC West title and No. 2 seed. “This team understands how far we’ve come from that game," Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith, who acknowledged the Steelers will be "a big challenge," told reporters. Pittsburgh was in a similar position to Kansas City a week ago, avenging a lopsided loss at Miami during the regular season with a resounding 30-12 victory. "We have to understand that the same passion and dedication that we put in to beat Miami, that's how Kansas City is going to try to beat us," Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell told reporters.

POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (-5) - Chiefs (-4.5) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -2.5

LINE HISTORY: The lined opened as a pick’em and early in the week went up to Chiefs -2.5, before fading back to -1.5 late in the week. The total hit the board at 45 and has been bet down to 44.5. View the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Steelers ride an 8-game win skein into this contest looking to replicate a 43-14 win over the Chiefs in Pittsburgh earlier this season. They will need to overcome the visiting team’s 1-8-1 ATS mark in Mike Tomlin’s playoff games, while Kansas City will look to win a home playoff game for the first time since 1994. The Chiefs will be banking on Andy Reid’s 18-0 SU and 14-4 ATS career mark in games with rest against sub .888 foes." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened this line at Steelers -1 and with the lingering ankle injury of Big Ben from last weeks game against Miami we took enough action on the Chiefs at +1 for us to flip the line to Chiefs -1, where we currently sit (as of writing this). We are seeing solid two way action at this number with just over 50% coming in on the Steelers to cover." - Michael Stewart at CarbonSports.ag

WEATHER REPORT: An ice storm forced the NFL to push the start of this game from Sunday afternoon to night. The forecast for kickoff at Arrowhead stadium is rain with temperatures in the mid-30’s.

INJURY REPORT:

Steelers - LB Vince Williams (probable, shoulder), QB Ben Roethlisberger (probable, foot), LB Bud Dupree (questionable, shin), S Sean Davis (questionable, shoulder), DE Stephon Tuitt (questionable, ankle), RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (questionable, concussion), S Robert Golden (questionable, ankle), DE Ricardo Mathews (questionable, ankle), LB Anthony Chickillo (questionable, ankle), CB Justin Gilbert (questionable, shoulder), TE Ladarius Green (doubtful, concussion)

Chiefs - DB Eric Berry (probable, achilles), LB Tampa Hali (probable, knee), LB Justin Houston (probable, knee), RB Spencer Ware (probable, ribs), LB Justin March-Lillard (questionable, hand), WR Jeremy Maclin (questionable, ankle), LB Dadi Nicolas (IR, knee)

ABOUT THE STEELERS (12-5 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 6-11 O/U): Pittsburgh has ripped off eight straight victories, scoring at least 24 points in each, and showed how explosive it can be in the first postseason game with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Bell all on the field. Roethlisberger burned Kansas City with five touchdown passes and last week tossed a pair of scoring strikes to Brown, who became the first player with two TD receptions of at least 50 yards in the first quarter of a playoff game. Bell set a franchise playoff record with 167 yards rushing and a pair of touchdowns last week and shredded the Chiefs for 144 yards on 18 carries in Week 4. Pittsburgh's defense feasted on Dolphins quarterback Matt Moore, sacking him five times and forcing three turnovers.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 6-10 O/U): While the home-field edge obviously should make a huge difference from the first meeting, both of Kansas City's losses since the rout at Pittsburgh game at Arrowhead Stadium - a pair of 19-17 setbacks to Tampa Bay and Tennessee. Quarterback Alex Smith long has carried the tag of "game manager," but he takes care of the ball in the postseason, throwing for 11 touchdowns against only one interception in five playoff games. Smith's favorite target is tight end Travis Kelce, who made 85 catches for 1,125 yards and four TDs, while rookie Tyreek Hill is an emerging weapon in the return game, as well as at wide receiver and in the backfield. The bye week allowed running back Spencer Ware (rib) and linebacker Justin Houston (knee) to heal.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.
* Chiefs are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 8-2 in Steelers last 10 games following a ATS win.
* Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
* Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Kansas City.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road pup Steelers with 53 percent of the action and the Over is getting 52 percent of the totals wagers.

Steve's Screenshot
By Steve Merril

Packers at Cowboys (-5.5, 52)

My power ratings make Dallas -5, so this line is right where it should be. The weather forecast is calling for rain, especially during the second half of this game.

Green Bay has been one of the hottest teams down the stretch as they are on a 7-game winning streak. Unfortunately for the Packers offense, they lost wide receiver Jordy Nelson to a rib injury in last week’s game. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has much better career numbers when Nelson is on the field, and with this game on the road, Nelson’s absence may have a bigger impact on the outcome. Overall, Green Bay is averaging 27.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season. The Packers’ defense has been their weakness, especially on the road where they are giving up 28.2 points per game on a horrible 6.7 yards per play.

Dallas won 30-16 in Green Bay back in October, and they did so by dominating the line of scrimmage. The Cowboys ran for 191 yards in that game, and that will likely be their game plan once again. The Dallas offense has been terrific all season while averaging 26.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that only allow 22.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. The Cowboy’s defense has allowed 19.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents that average 21.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.