Divisional Round Outlook
VegasInsider.com
New Orleans at Seattle
Opening Line: Seahawks -8½, 48
Seattle Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS
New Orleans Road Record: 4-5 SU, 2-7 ATS
Head-to-Head: The Seahawks destroyed the Saints in early December, 34-7 to cash as 6½-point home favorites. Seattle has won each of the last two meetings, including a 41-36 upset of New Orleans as 10-point home underdogs in the Wild Card round of the 2010 playoffs.
Playoff Notes: Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have split four playoff games, while posting a 3-1 ATS record. New Orleans edged Philadelphia in the Wild Card round, 26-24 to pick up its first road playoff win in the history of its franchise. In Sean Payton's tenure, the Saints had allowed at least 36 points in each of their three previous away playoff games prior to Saturday's victory over the Eagles.
Indianapolis at New England
Opening Line: Patriots -9, 53½
New England Home Record: 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS
Indianapolis Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Head-to-Head: The Patriots ripped apart the Colts in 2012 at Gillette Stadium, 59-24 as 10-point favorites. New England has won each of the last three meetings with Indianapolis (all at home), while Tom Brady has beaten the Colts in four of his last meetings.
Playoff Notes: Indianapolis overcame a 28-point deficit in Saturday's 45-44 shocker over Kansas City to win the franchise's first playoff game since 2009. The Colts have lost each of their last two road postseason contests, including a 24-9 defeat at Baltimore last season. The Patriots have been eliminated at home in three of the last four postseasons, as New England lost to Baltimore last January, 28-13.
San Francisco at Carolina
Opening Line: 49ers -1½, 43
Carolina Home Record: 7-1 SU, 6-1-1 ATS
San Francisco Road Record: 7-2 SU, 7-1-1 ATS
Head-to-Head: The Panthers edged the 49ers in early November, 10-9, as Carolina cashed outright as six-point road underdogs. Carolina has won four straight meetings with San Francisco since 2004, including home victories in 2007 and 2010.
Playoff Notes: The 49ers have won four of six postseason games under Jim Harbaugh, including a 2-0 record on the highway. Carolina is seeking its first playoff victory since 2005, while hosting its first postseason contest since a 33-13 defeat to the Cardinals in 2008.
San Diego at Denver
Opening Line: Broncos -10½, 56
Denver Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS
San Diego Road Record: 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS
Head-to-Head: These two divisional rivals split a pair of meetings with the road team winning each matchup. Denver held off San Diego in November, 28-20 as seven-point favorites, while the Chargers shocked the Broncos in Denver a month later, 27-20 as 10-point underdogs. Each of the two games finished 'under' the total.
Playoff Notes: The Broncos lost that epic second round matchup to the Ravens in double overtime last season, 38-35, while Denver is 2-2 at home in the playoffs since 2000. The Chargers and Broncos are meeting for the first time ever in the postseason, while San Diego is 4-4 in its last eight playoff contests since 2006.
NFL Playoff Time!
By Jim Feist
Freeplays.com
As the playoffs begin, those who earned the top two seeds in each conference have a key edge, as they get a bye the first week while watching the others duke it out. Sitting at home this past weekend were the Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks and Panthers. Why is that significant? A year ago the 4 bye teams were the Broncos, Patriots, Falcons and 49ers. The top NFC teams met in the title game, while the Pats hosted the AFC Championship game.
Gaining the bye is an advantage for teams to not only rest injured players, but to have two weeks to put together a game plan. Since 1990, 34 first and second round seeds have filled 46 Super Bowl slots and the No. 1 and 2 seeds, rested after the bye, have gone 60-20 in their first games in the divisional round. A last two years the rested teams have gone 6-2 SU/4-4 ATS. The Pats blew out Houston, 45-28 and the 49ers roasted Green Bay, 45-21. Denver stumbled against Baltimore thanks to some blown coverage in regulation, while the Falcons and Seahawks played a thriller.
The No. 1 seeded team in four of the last nine years in the NFC (Eagles, Seahawks, Bears, Saints) wound up in the Super Bowl. In the AFC it’s been a different story, as the only recent No. 1 seeds to make it were the 2003, ’07, ’11 Patriots and the ’09 Colts. Three years ago the Pats lost to the NY Jets and last season Denver failed to win a game. In 2001 and ’04 the Steelers were the No. 1 AFC seed and fell short, along with the 14-2 Colts and Chargers, plus the 13-3 Titans and last year’s 13-3 Broncos fell short. Here’s a look at the four teams that come into this weekend’s playoff games rested with home field.
Broncos (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS): Here they are again! Denver has the record setting pasing offense behind QB Peyton Manning (55 TDs, 10 INTs) with WRs Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and TE Julius Thomas. Good luck to defensive coordinators this month trying to develop a game plan defending that foursome. If there’s a weak spot it would be the defense, so good a year ago but hit hard by injuries and inconsistent play. For totals players, Denver is on a 49-22-1 run over the total, plus 36-18-1 over against the AFC.
Patriots (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS): New England enters the playoffs with the same record they had a year ago, but that’s one of the few things the same from this team. QB Tom Brady doesn’t have his top three targets from last season and the defense has been devastated by injuries, losing a pair of top notch run stuffers (Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly) and their top linebacker (Jerod Mayo). As a result, Brady uses less no-huddle on offense than the last two years and the defense plays a bend-but-don’t-break style, giving up a lot of yards but ranked in the Top 10 in points allowed. This team probably need the bye week more than any other with several players banged up, including star CB Aqib Talib (hip). The over is 27-12 in the Patriots last 39 home games.
Panthers: (12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS): Where did these guys come from? A young that flexed its muscles and let the league know it’s ready for prime time after wins over the 49ers (10-9), Patriots (24-20) and Saints (17-13). QB Cam Newton leads a run-first offense that ranks just 28th in passing, which makes you wonder what will happen if this team gets behind 13-0 in a playoff game? The defense is the bedrock of the Panthers, Top 10 against the run and the pass, keeping them in every game. The conservative offense, rock-solid defense explains a 11-4-1 season under the total.
Seahawks: (13-3 SU, 10-5 ATS): The Beast from the Northwest! Seattle gave the Falcons a wild ride in last January’s NFC playoffs, nearly pulling the upset. It really was a harbinger of things to come as Seattle has had a dominating season, with a balanced offense and a powerhouse defense. QB Russell Wilson (26 TDs, 9 INTs) is smart and mobile, making good decisions, and RB Marshawn Lynch is a workhorse on the NFL’s fourth ranked ground attack. The linebacking corps is outstanding and the secondary is better, tops in the NFL at defending the pass. The Seahawks are 27-10 ATS against the NFC and 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 home games! Looks like the NFC goes through Seattle this January.
Divisional Playoff Angles
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
NFL Divisional Playoff Perspective
Once again, after expanding its playoff format to 12 teams in 1990, the NFL left the door wide open to the possibilities of a Wild Card team running the table and hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
Since the Wild Card system began in 1970, only 10 wild card teams have advanced all the way to the Super Bowl. Of those, only six won the Super Bowl. And of those 10 wild card teams, only four teams managed to win three games on the road to make it to the Super Bowl - the last three of whom captured the crown.
In fact, five of the last seven Super Bowl champions have played in the first round of the playoffs, including the Baltimore Ravens last season.
Will the trend continue this season or will the top seeded teams have their say? And speaking of top ranked teams, the No. 1 seed from the NFC has not won a Super Bowl since 1999.
It’s important to remember that 39 of the last 47 Super Bowl winners have owned a Top 10 ranked defense. (Are you listening Carolina, New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle?)
Remember, it’s not always the best team that wins in the NFL playoffs… it’s the hottest.
Before we crown anyone just yet, let’s first check a few Divisional Round angles in the NFL playoffs that are noteworthy.
All results are since 1990 and are ATS (Against The Spread), unless noted otherwise.
Bye And Large Top Seeds Up To Speed
No. 1 seeds enjoy the luxury of not only hosting a game in this round but also play with an added week of rest.
For the most part these teams have met with modicum of success, going 67-25 SU and 48-42-2 ATS in this role.
The best the NFC has to offer has gone 37-9 SU and 28-17-1 ATS, including 22-8-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points.
The NFC spotlight shines on top-seeded Seattle this Saturday.
While not up to par with the NFC, top seeds from the AFC have gone 30-16 SU and 20-25-1 ATS, including 7-2 SU and ATS when facing a foe off a Wild Card round spread win of more than 17 points.
No. 1 seed Denver will look to improve on those numbers when they host division rival San Diego on Sunday.
Success Breeds Success
Speaking of the added benefit of an extra week to prepare this time of the year, rested hosts in this round that enjoyed success last season use that experience to their advantage.
That’s confirmed by the fact that teams that won 11 or more games last year are 32-6 SU and 24-13-1-1 ATS at home with a week to prepare in Divisional Round contests.
Denver, New England and Seattle all fit the bill this season, rather cautiously though as teams in this role are just 8-4 SU and 4-8 ATS the last seven years.
On the flip side, teams that were losing teams last years (seven or fewer wins) are just 4-24 SU and 11-16-1 ATS in this round, including 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS when playing off an upset, underdog win.
New Orleans and San Diego look to oblige this week.
Clint Eastwood Says
Here’s a brief capsule of this year’s Divisional Round combatants along with some relevant Good, Bad and Ugly trends…
New Orleans at Seattle
Good: Seahawks 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS home behind QB Russell Wilson
Bad: Saints 1-5 SUATS away all-time in the playoffs
Ugly: Seahawks 0-3 SUATS vs. Saints when New Orleans off SUATS win
Indianapolis at New England
Good: Colts QB Andrew Luck 6-1 SUATS as a dog vs. greater than .667 opp
Bad: Visiting team 5-13 ATS in Colts postseason games
Ugly: Pats QB Tom Brady 0-6 ATS playoffs w/rest vs. opp off BB wins
San Francisco at Carolina
Good: Niners QB Colin Kaepernick 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS away vs. non div opp
Bad: Playoff road favorites off playoff road favorite win are 1-3 ATS
Ugly: Niners are 3-15 ATS all-time vs. Panthers, 0-5 ATS last 5 away
San Diego at Denver
Good: Chargers QB Phillip Rivers 4-1 ATS as a playoff dog
Bad: Broncos 2-6 SUATS last 8 playoff games
Ugly: Broncos QB Peyton Manning 1-6 ATS home favorite vs. San Diego
Highway Blues
Life on the road for Wild Card teams who won at home has been rocky at best, especially if those who grabbed the cash as well.
These highwaymen are just 13-37 SU and 18-30-2 ATS in this role against well-rested higher-seeded foes.
And if these same Wild Card winners take to the road against .750 or les opponents, they dip to a filthy 3-24 SU and 8-18-1 ATS in these affairs.
Indianapolis will try its best to avoid becoming road kill this week.
Stat Of The Week
In NFL Divisional Round playoff game history since 1990, there have been only two home underdogs. They both won the game straight up.
Divisional Trends
By Mike Rose
VegasInsider.com
Divisional Round Breakdown
There are only eight teams left standing in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy, and today at Vegas Insiders, we're breaking down the four games with some great trends to remember for each of the games.
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
The Line: Seattle -8 (47.5)
The Seahawks won the first meeting of the year 34-7, and they still have only lost one game at home in the career of QB Russell Wilson. They've got four straight ATS wins against teams with a winning record at home, and they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 against teams with winning records. New Orleans did cover last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, but that ended a skid of six straight ATS losses away from home. New Orleans has gone just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 playoff games. The 'under' is 5-0 in New Orleans' last five road games, and it is 5-0 in Seattle's last five games played since their Week 12 bye.
Indianapolis Colts at. New England Patriots
The Line: New England -7.5 (53)
These two teams didn't meet this season, and this is the only matchup of the weekend where the two teams haven't squared off. Last season though, New England won 59-24 when these clubs met. There have only been two other teams in NFL history who have come back from down 24 points or more to win playoff games. The next week, those teams are 1-1 SU and ATS with extremely mixed results. The Buffalo Bills stormed into the AFC Championship Game after beating the Houston Oilers. The San Francisco 49ers collapsed and lost by 35 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Pats are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 playoff games, and they have played 10 of those 11 games here at Gillette Stadium (2-8 ATS). New England went 6-2 ATS this season at home. The 'under' has cashed in Indy's last six playoff games, but the 'over' is 44-18-1 in New England's last 63 games played on field turf. The 'over' is also 3-0-1 in New England's last four playoff games played in the Divisional Round of the postseason.
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
The Line: San Francisco -1.5 (43)
The Panthers are the only home underdogs this weekend, and this game also represents the lowest 'total' of the week to boot. The Niners didn't score an offensive touchdown in a 10-9 loss at home to these Panthers earlier this year. Carolina has only been to the NFC Championship Game two other times in its history. San Fran has been there in consecutive seasons. The Panthers are 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Niners have won seven games in a row and are 4-2-1 ATS in those games. The 'under' is 8-1 in Carolina's last nine games, but the 'over' is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in this series.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
The Line: Denver -10 (54.5)
The Broncos are the biggest favorites of the weekend, and this one has the highest 'total' on the board even though both games this season were decided by one score and neither got into the 50s. San Diego is the only team to win in Denver this season. The Bolts have gone 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight against AFC West teams, but both the loss and the push came against San Diego. The 'under' is 6-2 in the Chargers' last eight games overall, while Denver has pushed four straight playoff games past the closing number.
Divisional Playoff History
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com
Divisional Playoff games have historically been the territory of home teams and favorites (almost always one and the same), their dominance has not been especially pronounced in recent years. Indeed, since the 2004 postseason, road underdogs stand 23-16 against the number in the Division Round.
Remember some dynamics worth mentioning that are unique to this round. Since 1990, when the playoffs expanded from 10 teams to 12, all Division Round hosts have been off a "bye" and a week of rest.
And almost all of the "powerhouse" NFL teams in recent memory are from that first-round "bye" group, including 54 of the last 70 Super Bowl participants since '78 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced).
However, at least one top conference seed has met defeat in seven of the past eight seasons, including Denver in the AFC a year ago.
Also identifiable with this round are lopsided results, which have recurred with regularity over the decades. In fact, since 1975, more than half of these games have been decided by double-digit margins.
Favored teams laying a TD or more (usually representing the cream of the NFL crop) have covered at a 56% (42-33-1) in the Division Round since '75.
The strongest trend in recent years has been on the "totals" side, "overs" in particular, now 11-1 since the 2010 season playoffs (and 4-0 a year ago).
Following are the point-spread results in various spread categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1975. Our "charting" begins with the '75 season because, prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record.
A "margin of victory" chart for the games since 1975 is included as well.
CATEGORY RESULT
Favorites vs. line... 76-72-3 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up... 104-47
Favored by 0-3 points... 9-15-1
Favored by 31/2-61/2 points... 26-23-1
Favored by 7-91/2 points... 27-22
Favored by 10-131/2 points... 12-8
Favored by 14 points or more... 3-3-1
Home teams straight up... 107-45
Home teams vs. spread... 79-70-3
Home favorites vs. spread... 74-68-3
Home underdogs vs. spread... 4-2
Home picks vs. spread... 1-0
Over/under (since 1986...) 60-48
MARGINS OF VICTORY
1-3 points... 36
4-6 points... 12
7-10 points... 26
11-13 points... 12
14 points or more... 66
Total Talk - Divisional Notes
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Wild Card Recap
The ‘under’ went 3-1 last weekend and for the most part, all of the results were clear-cut. The 89 combined points by the Colts and Chiefs was certainly surprising but when you create short tracks with turnovers and execute big plays, you’re going to get points. The Saints and Eagles had the highest total (55½) and a scoreless first quarter was much-needed. Bettors chasing their ‘over’ bets in the second-half (27) were rewarded with 37 points and a winning ticket. Including last week’s results, the ‘under’ has now gone 7-1 in the Wild Card round the last two years and is 25-15 (63%) the past 10 seasons.
Divisional Playoff History
Unlike totals in the first round, the Divisional Playoffs have been all about shootouts recently. The ‘over’ has gone 11-1 in the second round of the playoffs the last three seasons and the scoreboard operator has certainly been busy. During this span, 13 teams scored at least 30 points or more and four clubs have scored in the forties.
Total System
In Week 14’s edition of Total Talk, I wrote about a solid total system that was brought to my attention and according to my numbers, it’s gone 35-15-2 (75%) the last 10 years. Put simply...
Play the ‘OVER’ for any team that is playing their consecutive game on the Road
The NFL schedule rarely has anybody playing three straight on the road anymore but it did occur twice this season:
Week 6 – Philadelphia 31 at Tampa Bay 20 (Over 45)
Week 14 – Tennessee 28 at Denver 51 (Over 50)
This weekend, the system is back in play with San Francisco. The 49ers played at Arizona in Week 17 and they defeated the Packers at Lambeau Field last Sunday in the Wild Card round. This week, the team heads to Carolina.
If either the Saints or Chargers pull off upsets this weekend, then the system would be alive for the conference championships next Sunday. I personally never used the angle for teams playing in their fourth straight road game or in the Super Bowl, since that’s not a true road game. However, Baltimore advanced to last year’s finale by winning two straight on the road (at Denver, at New England) and the Super Bowl turned out to be a shootout.
Saturday, Jan. 11
New Orleans at Seattle: The total on this game opened at 48 and it’s already dipped to 44½ points, due to inclement weather expected by kickoff. Even without that factor, it’s hard to argue for the ‘over’ in this spot. The Saints have watched the ‘under’ go 12-5 this season and that includes an 8-1 mark on the road. Plus, Seattle has closed the season with five straight ‘under’ tickets behind a defense that has an allowed an average of 10.4 PPG during the final month. One of those games was against the Saints, who the Seahawks defeated 34-7 on Dec. 2. Even though that matchup went ‘under’ (48), there were 34 points (27-7) scored at halftime. Prior to this encounter, the three previous games between the pair went ‘over’ and that includes the Seahawks 41-36 upset over the Saints in 2011 Wild Card round.
Indianapolis at New England: Temperatures are expected to be in the forties for this game but the combination of rain and wind could have bettors leaning ‘under’ in this primetime game. As of Friday evening, the opening number has dropped from 52½ to 51. The Indianapolis offense has been consistent the last six weeks, scoring at least 22 points in each game, and that includes 30 and 45-point efforts the past two weeks. Defensively, that’s where the Colts become inconsistent. During this span, they held four opponents to a combined 34 points but they gave up 42 and 44 in the other two outings. Even though New England has been hampered by injuries, the offense averaged 31.6 PPG in its last six games, which has helped the ‘over’ close the season on a 5-1 run. These teams met in the 2012 regular season and New England hammered Indy 59-24 in wire-to-wire fashion.
Sunday, Jan. 12
San Francisco at Carolina: Oddsmakers opened this game at 43 and the number has dropped to 41. These teams met on Nov. 10 in the Bay Area and Carolina captured a 10-9 road win while holding San Francisco to 151 total yards. The 49ers didn’t have WR Michael Crabtree in the lineup and TE Vernon Davis left in the second quarter with a concussion. Not having those options certainly didn’t help the offense, which settled for three field goals, all coming in the first half. Since Crabtree returned to the lineup on Dec. 1, the 49ers have put up five or more scores in all six of their games. However, there have been more field goals than touchdowns, which always hurt ‘over’ bets. Carolina (11-4-1) has leaned to the ‘under’ all season, especially at home (6-2) where the Panthers allowed an average of 12 PPG this season. Carolina doesn’t have a spectacular offense (22.9 PPG) and not having WR Steve Smith (knee) fully healthy could hurt the attack.
San Diego at Denver: This game has the highest number (54) of the weekend and you can argue that it’s inflated based on the perception of Peyton Manning and the Broncos high-scoring offense (37.9 PPG). Regardless of who’s on the field, high totals require high execution, usually from both teams too. Point being made with Denver, who scored 91 points in its final three games of the regular season but the ‘under’ went 3-0 in those contests. San Diego has been in a handful of high-scoring games this season yet the ‘under’ still owns a 10-7 mark. A lot of that has to do with the Chargers underrated defense, which has given up an average of 16.3 PPG in their last six games. What’s really surprising is that nobody has put up more than 24 points and the team to do that was Kansas City in Week 17 and it was using a backup QB and reserves. During the regular season, the Broncos and Chargers split their games with scores of 28-20 and 27-20. The road team won each matchup and both went ‘under.’
Fearless Predictions
Got a little change ($90) back last weekend but still down $100 on the season. With seven games left in the NFL, time is certainly running out to notch another winning season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: San Francisco-Carolina 41
Best Under: Indianapolis-New England 51
Best Team Total: Under 23½ Colts
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 32 Carolina-San Francisco
Under 60 Indianapolis-New England
Under 63 San Diego-Denver