NFL Football News and Notes Monday 11/30

NEW ENGLAND (7 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (10 - 0)

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 56-33 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 72-44 ATS (+23.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

NEW ENGLAND vs. NEW ORLEANS
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
New Orleans is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing New England

NEW ENGLAND at NEW ORLEANS
NEW ENGLAND: 72-44 ATS as an underdog
NEW ORLEANS: 35-55 ATS as home favorite

Monday Night Football

Patriots (7-3) @ Saints (10-0)-- New England won four of last five games, the only loss 35-34 at unbeaten Colts; Pats have yet to win true road game, with losses at Jets (16-9), Broncos (20-17), Colts (35-34)- they beat Bucs over in England, a neutral site. Saints failed to cover last four games after covering the first six; they're 3-2 as home favorite, winning in Superdome by 18-14-21-8- 10 points. Saints ran ball for 203-183 yards in last two games; their offense is well-balanced. NFC South home favorites are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional tilts; AFC East underdogs are 5-8 against spread, 5-4 on road. Three of Pats' four games away from home stayed under the total.

MNF - Patriots at Saints
By Kevin Rogers

The undefeated New Orleans Saints will receive their toughest test of the season in front of the Monday Night nation, hosting the Patriots. These two clubs are a combined 17-3 on the season, as the Saints try to move closer towards locking up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Sean Payton's squad has been the story of the NFL this season, breaking out to the best start in franchise history at 10-0. The Saints own the most prolific offense in the league, averaging 420.5 yards/game, while lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of 36.9 ppg. The oddsmakers have adjusted to New Orleans' scoring prowess, making the Saints a double-digit favorite in each of the last four games. However, the Saints have covered just one of the contests, coming this past Sunday at Tampa Bay, blowing out the Bucs, 31-7, as 10 ½-point road 'chalk.'

New Orleans has been money this season as a single-digit favorite, compiling a 5-0 SU/ATS when laying less than nine points. Breaking that down further, that record may be a bit deceiving. No question it is tough to win on the road in the NFL, but three of those victories came at Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Miami.

The 48-22 victory in Week 2 at Philadelphia was impressive, but it did come against Eagles backup QB Kevin Kolb, as Donovan McNabb was out with bruised ribs. The following week, the Saints trampled the Bills, 27-7, as Terrell Owens was held without a catch, while the Bills' lone touchdown came on a fake field goal. Probably the most eye-opening win came at Miami in Week 7 as the Saints rallied from a 24-3 deficit to shock the Dolphins, 46-34, while shocking New Orleans backers who cashed as six-point road favorites.

The Saints are led by Drew Brees and his 22 touchdown tosses, but amazingly, New Orleans has a balanced offensive attack. Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, and Reggie Bush have combined for 14 rushing touchdowns, while the Saints rank fifth in the league on the ground, averaging 154.3 yards/game.

The Patriots are one of four AFC teams with seven victories (Broncos at 7-4 with Thursday victory over Giants), as the second seed in the conference is still up for grabs. New England has just about finished its home schedule, winning all six games at Gillette Stadium. The road, on the other hand, hasn't been as kind to Bill Belichick's team. The Pats are 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS away from Foxboro, and that lone win didn't even come in this country, as New England blasted Tampa Bay in London, 35-7.

In all fairness, the last two losses on the road were games that the Patriots gave away. Back in Week 5 at Denver, the Pats squandered a 17-7 halftime lead, as the Broncos rallied for a 20-17 overtime victory in their brown and yellow throwback uniforms. Fast forward to Week 10 at Indianapolis, the fourth down call heard 'round the world, as Belichick decided to go for it on 4th and 2 from the Patriots' 28 and failed. Peyton Manning led the Colts down for the go-ahead touchdown and kept Indianapolis unbeaten with a 35-34 shocker.

Earlier it was mentioned that the Saints own the top offense in the league. Nipping on New Orleans' heels is New England, as the Pats are averaging 416.1 yards/game, which ranks second in the NFL. Tom Brady is currently one of three quarterbacks that have amassed over 3,000 yards this season, with Manning and Aaron Rodgers just ahead of Brady.

Those numbers haven't translated into large totals for New England, as the Patriots have seen totals listed at 46 or below in seven of ten games. Back in 2007, when the Pats owned the greatest single-season offensive numbers of all-time, there were six games that had a total listed in the 50's. Only two of those games finished 'over' the total, and coincidentally they were both against NFC teams, a 48-27 victory at Dallas and a 31-28 squeaker over Philadelphia.

The Monday Night 'over' trend has taken a nosedive recently, as the 'under' has cashed in each of the last three weeks. The last 'over' on Monday Night came at the Superdome, when the Saints held off the Falcons, 35-27, in Week 8, eclipsing the total of 56. Since 2007, New England has been showcased on Monday just four times, including the 25-24 close call in this year's season opener against Buffalo. Perhaps the most memorable Monday Night game in the last three seasons for the Patriots was their late rally at Baltimore in '07, staving off the Ravens, 27-24 as 19-point favorites.

The Patriots have won 17 straight regular season games against the NFC, dating back to 2005, as the last team to knock off New England prior to the playoffs was Carolina in Week 2 four seasons ago. Of course, in the midst of this nice winning streak, notice the "regular season" caveat, as the Pats were tripped up by the Giants in Super Bowl 42 back in 2007.

VI capper Bruce Marshall feels betting the total may be worth a strong consideration, "This looks like one where the Saints might not get over the hump, although I actually might prefer the "over" (despite that bloated total). Expect an enhanced pace and tempo as Brady goes after an injured Saints secondary, while Brees & Co. will be treating each possession in must-score mode. The fact the Saints have been a bit careless with the ball over the past month increases the chances of a defensive or a cheaper score distorting the total on Monday night."

Marshall has found several solid 'over' trends in each team's direction, "Both have been trending 'over' in this role, with the Patriots going 'over' 14-9 the last 23 away from home, the Saints finishing 'over' 14-4 the last 18 at the Superdome, and the 'over' hitting in 21 of the last 31 overall for New Orleans since late '07."

Fellow VI capper Joe Nelson has found several interesting nuggets on the strength of each teams' resumes, "Much is being made of the easy schedule that the Saints have faced, having only defeated two winning teams all year. While New England has faced a tougher overall schedule, the Patriots have zero wins against winning teams, having lost to both Denver and Indianapolis. The best wins for the Patriots came against 5-5 Atlanta, 5-5 Baltimore, and 5-5 Miami, and the Saints have defeated two of those teams as well. New England also has failed to win a true road game this season, as its only win away from home came against Tampa Bay in London."

Both squads are coming off different hurdles the last two weeks, and according to Nelson, the advantage may lie with New Orleans in that respect. "The Saints have some concerns on defense, but this will be the biggest game of the season by far after slugging through games against lousy teams the past two weeks. New England has played Indianapolis in a huge national TV contest, and then faced the Jets in a critical division revenge game which will make it tough to get up for yet another huge test. While going against the Patriots is never an ideal situation, taking the Saints as a very small favorite at home has value this week and this is a team that has found ways to win, and usually win convincingly even with horrible starts in several recent games. There will not be a lack of intensity or flat performance out of the gate this week," says Nelson.

Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetEd.com says this game will definitely pique the public's interest. "This will be our most popular game of the year. Big action games like this usually brings solid two-way action. It's crucial to the book's earn percentage to hold a single number for as long as possible. Unnecessary line movement creates a wider lose margin. So don't expect much movement to this line," says Scott.

This line has seen change throughout the week, as Scott and his team has needed to make the necessary changes, "The line opened with the Saints -3 (+110), but quickly changed to Saints -2. The total dropped a half-point to 55 ½ since opening. The total however will see some flux. This is a relatively high starting number for an NFL total, which will cause the books to quickly react to incoming 'under' money."

The Saints are currently two-point favorites in most outfits, while the total is slowly climbing into the 57 range.

What Bettors Need To Know: Patriots at Saints
By JON KUIPERIJ

The last team to have an undefeated regular season looks to end the Saints' attempt at perfection Monday night in the Big Easy.

Tom Brady and the 7-3 Patriots roll into the Superdome for a clash with Drew Brees and the 10-0 Saints. The game features the top two offenses in the NFL, with both units averaging more than 400 yards per game.

Line movement

The Saints opened as 3-point favorites, but heavy action on the Patriots forced some books to move New Orleans to as low as 1-point chalk. The posted total of 55.5 has moved to 56.5, with the majority of bets coming in on the over.

Injury report

New Orleans has been banged up a bit in recent weeks, but hopes to have three significant starters back in the lineup this week. Running back Reggie Bush (knee), cornerback Jabari Greer (groin) and defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (knee) are all listed as probable on the team's injury report.

The Pats aren't expected to be missing any of their star players Monday, though a number of players were limited in practice drills this week. Tackle Matt Light, cornerback Shawn Springs and running back Sammy Morris are all listed as questionable.

Saints keep marching in

The Saints continue to light up the scoreboard, leading the league with an average of 36.4 points per game. New Orleans has not been held to less than 24 points in its first 10 games, eclipsing the 40-point plateau four times.

Oddsmakers have caught on, however. Despite putting up 30, 28 and 38 points the past three weeks, New Orleans has gone under in two of those games. The lone over in that span came by half a point, a 28-23 victory over the Rams two weeks ago.

The Saints are also 1-3 against the spread in their last four contests.

Brady's back

Early in the season, there were questions about how long it would take Pats QB Tom Brady to shake off the rust after missing nearly all last season with a knee injury. No one's asking those questions anymore.

After throwing for 300 yards only once in his first five games, the Michigan alum has tossed for 300-plus yards in each of his past five contests, with 14 touchdown passes and just four interceptions.

“I think we’re obviously playing a lot better football as a unit,” Brady said. “My job is pretty simple when they block the way they block and Randy (Moss) and Wes (Welker) are out there doing their thing.”

In the spotlight

Playing in front of a national audience is nothing new for the Patriots. Including playoffs, New England has been on national TV 20 times in the past four seasons. The Patriots have won 11 of those contests, going 11-8-1 ATS and 10-8-2 over/under.

New Orleans has been in the national spotlight only 12 times in that span, going 7-5 straight up and 5-6-1 ATS. Nine of those 12 games went over the total.

No lead is safe

Halftime leads haven't always been safe for the Patriots this season. In all three of its losses, New England held a halftime advantage before being outscored by a combined 47-10 score in defeats at the Colts, Jets and Broncos.

That could spell doom against the Saints, who have overcome sizable halftime deficits in two of their wins. New Orleans rallied from a 24-10 hole to beat the Dolphins 46-34 in Week 7, and outscored the Panthers 24-3 in the second half of a 30-20 victory in Week 9.

Trends

New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games as a favourite, and 12-4-1 in its last 17 overall. The Patriots are 37-17-2 ATS in their last 56 games on the road.

The over is 4-0 in the Saints'last four Monday games, 14-3-1 in their last 18 home games and 16-4-1 in their last 21 games on field turf. The Patriots have seen the over go 8-2-1 in their last 11 games on field turf and 12-5 in their last 17 games as an underdog.

New England (7-3, 5-4-1 ATS) at New Orleans (10-0, 7-3 ATS)

The top two offenses in the league will square off inside the Superdome when the Patriots visit New Orleans looking to upend the unbeaten Saints.

New England improved to 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games with last week’s 31-14 rout of the Jets, covering as a 10½-point home favorite. The Patriots have scored 27 points or more in their last five games and are averaging 37.2 ppg during this stretch. For the season, New England is putting up 29 points and 416.1 yards per game, which ranks third and second, respectively, in the league. Behind QB Tom Brady (3,049 yards, 20 TDs, 6 INTs), the Pats also field the league’s second-best passing attack (302.3 ypg).

New Orleans clobbered the Bucs last weekend, winning 38-7 and covering as a 10½-point road favorite, snapping a three-game ATS skid. The Saints, off to the best start in franchise history, have scored at least 24 points in every game this season, tallying 30 or more seven times. QB Drew Brees (2,746 yards, 22 TDs, 9 INTs) paces an explosive attack that leads the NFL in scoring offense (36.9 ppg) and total offense (420.5 ypg), and New Orleans also rates fifth in rushing offense (154.3 ypg).

These teams haven’t squared off since 2005 when the Patriots got a 24-17 home win, but came up short as 8½-point favorites. Going back to 1986, the Saints are 6-1 ATS against New England.

The Patriots are on ATS slides of 5-11 after a spread-cover and 4-9-1 in Week 12 games, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 38-17-1 on the road, 6-2 as an underdog and 5-1 on artificial turf.

New England quarterback Tom Brady is 23-12 SU and 23-10-1 ATS as an underdog, while Bill Belichick is 16-8 SU and ATS versus undefeated foes (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS this season).

New Orleans is on a plethora of ATS hot streaks, including 12-4-1 overall, 7-3 at home, 12-3 as a favorite, 5-0 in Week 12 and 5-1 after a spread-cover.

In terms of Monday night trends, the underdog has covered five of the last seven games with Tennessee winning outright as a road pup at Houston a week ago. That continued a streak of four consecutive covers for the road team – and five in six weeks – under the Monday lights.

New England is 8-13 SU on the Monday night road (10-11 ATS), while New Orleans is 3-8 both SU and ATS at the Superdome playing on Mondays.

New England has stayed below the posted total in four of five on the road and 10 of 14 Week 12 games, but the over for the Patriots is on streaks of 12-5 as an underdog, 4-1-1 in November contests and 8-2-1 on artificial turf.

For the Saints, the over is on upticks of 21-9-1 overall, 14-3-1 at home, 18-8-1 as a favorite, 12-3-1 as a home favorite, 4-0 on Monday and 47-21-2 against teams with a winning record.

Finally, the “over” is 19-8-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (8-4 this year). However, the last three Monday night affairs have stayed under the posted price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Bayou Air Duel
By SportsPic

The high-powered Saints put their perfect record on the line Monday night in the Superdome against New England Patriots. Saints recording 36.9 points per game behind QB Drew Brees' 2746 yards, 22 TD's and 1375 rushing yards, 14 TD's from RB's Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, Reggie Bush have steamrolled through the league winning their first 10 games by an average 16.5 points/game cashing seven of the contests for backers. Patriots 7-3 (5-4-1 ATS) on the year bring to the contest the leagues #2 total offense (416.1 yds) and the #3 scoring machine (29.0 PPG) on Tom Brady's 3049 yards, 20 TD's with Laurence Maroney (455 yds), Fred Taylor (201 yds) doing most of the ground work getting to the house eight times. Patriots who squandered a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in a 35-34 loss to the leagues only other undefeated squad two weeks ago will certainly be out to atone for that disaster. Patriots were 24-17 home winners the last time these two collided ('05) and 30-27 winners when the squads last played at the Superdome ('98). It is well to note the teams have split their last eight meetings however Saints are a near perfect 7-1 at the betting window. Other trends of interest: Patriots are 29-15 against-the-number as underdogs this millennium including 22-12 ATS on the highway, 7-3 ATS on the road in MNF. Saints enter 14-4 ATS it's last eighteen as favorites, 2-5 ATS at home under the Monday Night lights. In the QB battle of Brees vs Brady sportsbooks have made Saints a 1.5 to 2 point favorite depending on locale with the total set at 56.5.

New England attracting bettor's attention as underdogs
By Doug Upstone

With the exception of a game or two, the Monday Night football package has enjoyed a number of very entertaining contests. The excitement goes from exceptional to like a child waiting to open that first Christmas present with what is in store Monday night.

Two years ago, the New England Patriots started the season 10-0 on their way to perfect regular season record and had a prime time telecast against Philadelphia, in which the Eagles gave them everything they could handle, before they prevailed 31-28 as better than three touchdown home favorites. That was the first chink in the armor of New England all season and it would not completely manifest itself until they lost in Super Bowl XLII to the New York Giants.

Now the 7-3 Patriots head to the bayou in the role of spoiler, in the exact opposite situation two years later, trying to knock off the perfect 10-0 New Orleans Saints.

The Patriots (6-4 ATS) quickly put behind the notorious Bill Belichick decision against Indianapolis and jettison past the New York Jets 31-14. Tom Brady and receivers Wes Welker and Randy Moss are backing to tearing up defenses. New England is the AFC's highest scoring offense at 29 points per game and they are averaging 37.2 PPG over their last five outings. They are 37-18 ATS having won four out of their last five games.

Sportbet.com has the Pats in a shootout with New Orleans, as total is up to 56.5. This has not been a reason to back off the Brady bunch, who is 6-0 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards per game and 7-0 against the spread if they face a team scoring 29 or more points per contest.

But as good as the Patriots are and have been, New Orleans (7-3 ATS) has been better this season.

Drew Brees is in charge of the top scoring (36.9) team in the league and best offense (420.5) for gaining yards. The Saints increased production followed the offense live and its running backs. New Orleans can pound the ball to control the clock behind Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell averaging 4.8 yards per carry (4th) against teams that allow 4.4. Depending on how coach Sean Payton sets up the game plan and how the flow of the game emerges, New Orleans can play different styles with equal effectiveness. The Saints are 10-1 ATS vs. AFC opponent with .666 or better record in the Superdome.

Oddmakers opened New Orleans as garden variety three-point home favorites, but the wagering public still prefers the Patriots big game experience and have bet the Saints down to 1.5-point choice, despite the 13-4 ATS record as favorites.

New Orleans has scored 21 or more points in 18 straight home games and is 11-1 OVER when the line is +3 to -3. The three-time Super Bowl champions are 10-2 OVER versus rushing teams averaging 4.5 or yards a carry over the last three seasons.

New England covers if they handle the New Orleans blitz packages. More teams have been using combo coverages on Moss, which has left a lot of room for Welker to work underneath and move the chains. This allows the Patriots to move the chains and sets up Moss for later against a secondary that is less than 100 percent health-wise. Expect the Pats to be more patient in the running game than normal, since the Saints have surrendered over 150 yards per game the last four outings. Despite rumored opinions of coach Belichick having lost faith in his defense, the New England secondary is playing a much greater variety of coverages than earlier in the season and will have to mix press coverage with different Cover 2 looks and run exotic blitzes just to keep Brees guessing, which could lead to turnover.

New Orleans covers if they protect the ball. In weeks 7-10, they turned the ball over 13 times and not coincidently, failed to cover three of those four wins. Brees will see different looks than he's seen all season and has to exhibit patience. Coach Payton has really improved as play-caller, leaving out the "look how smart I am" plays that sometimes placed his team in bad spots in key moments of games. Where the coach has to be at his best is in the red zone, since New England is in the bottom third of the league in defending scores in confined area. The same holds true of Saints defense. Don't worry about giving up yardage; play tough in the red zone. The Patriots are surprising below average in this area (21 TDs on 44 possessions), which is pointed out ranking third in scoring and ninth in yards per point.

Monday Night System - Play Against any outdoor road team facing an opponent that plays in a dome. (32-14 ATS, 69.5 percent L12Y)

Tips and Trends

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints

Patriots: New England has struggled on the road this year. They're only 1-3 SU, with only 1 win ATS away from home. While they've struggled away from home, New England is playing their best football of the season right now. New England has scored 30 PTS or more in 4 of the past 5 games, while holding teams under 20 PTS during that same stretch. QB Tom Brady has more than 300 YDS passing in 5 straight games, including 14 TD's. WR Wes Welker leads the NFL with 79 receptions, while being the only NFL receiver averaging more than 100 YPG. His closest pursuer is his team, WR Randy Moss.

Patriots are 4-1 ATS last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 11-5 last 16 games as a road underdog.

Key injuries - T Matt Light (knee) is questionable.
CB Shawn Springs (knee) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31

Saints (-1.5, O/U 56.5): New Orleans puts their perfect regular season at risk against the last team to go undefeated in the regular season. The Saints feature the #1 ranked offense in the NFL, at 37 PPG. The Saints are 3-2 ATS in their 5 home games this season, losing the last 2 as double digit favorites. New Orleans has been favored in every game they've played this year. QB Drew Brees is having an MVP caliber season (2,750 YDS passing; 24 TDs) and is the leader of this team. Despite their perfect season thus far, the Saints have lost 3 of their last 4 games ATS.

Saints are 12-3 ATS last 15 games as a favorite.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games as a home favorite up to 3 points.

Key Injuries - CB Randall Gay (hamstring) is questionable.
RB Reggie Bush (knee) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 34 (OVER - Total of the Day)