Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
The fans at Candlestick Park will be treated to a game between the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers when they take their seats on Monday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Cardinals listed as 3½-point favorites versus the 49ers, while the game's total is sitting at 44½.
The Cardinals defeated Minnesota 30-17 as a 3-point underdog in Week 13. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (48).
Kurt Warner passed for 285 yards with three touchdowns for Arizona and Anquan Boldin caught seven passes for 98 yards with two touchdowns in the win.
The 49ers lost to Seattle 20-17 as a 1-point favorite in Week 13. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (41.5).
Alex Smith threw for 210 yards with two touchdowns for San Francisco and Vernon Davis caught six passes for 111 yards and a touchdown.
Team records:
Arizona: 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS
San Francisco: 5-7 SU, 7-3-2 ATS
Arizona most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the division are 9-1
San Francisco most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
San Francisco is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Next up:
Arizona at Detroit, Sunday, December 20
San Francisco at Philadelphia, Sunday, December 20
ARIZONA (8 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (5 - 7)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Francisco is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Arizona
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO
ARIZONA: 8-2 Over off SU dog win
SAN FRANCISCO: 21-9 ATS on Monday night
Arizona (8-4 SU and ATS) at San Francisco (5-7, 7-3-2 ATS)
The Cardinals head to Candlestick Park in San Francisco looking to clinch a playoff spot and their second straight NFC West title with a victory over the 49ers.
Arizona is coming off last week’s dominating 30-17 rout of NFC North-leading Minnesota. Quarterback Kurt Warner threw for 285 yards and three TDs with big days from WRs Anquan Boldin (seven catches, 98 yards, two TDs) and Larry Fitzgerald (eight catches, 143 yards, one TD). The Arizona offense is ranked fifth in the NFL, averaging 266.8 yards a game, however the defense – despite last week’s strong effort against the Vikings – is ranked 24th, giving up 363 yards per contest.
San Francisco has alternated wins and losses in each of its last five games (2-2-1 ATS), coming up short in Seattle last weekend 20-17 as a one-point favorite. QB Alex Smith threw for a career-best 310 yards with two TDs against the Seahawks, but the offense is still ranked 28th in the league, managing just 285.4 total ypg.
The 49ers opened this season with a 20-16 victory at Arizona as a 5½-point underdog. However, Arizona swept the season series last year, including a 23-13 season-opening win in San Francisco as a one-point favorite. The visitor has cashed in eight straight meetings in this rivalry, and the Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to northern California.
Arizona is on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 4-1 overall, 6-1 on the road, 9-3 against NFC teams, 8-3 against division foes and 8-3 after a spread-cover. San Francisco is riding ATS streaks of 10-4-3 overall, 6-2-1 at home, 15-5 on Monday, 6-0-2 as an underdog and 5-2 against NFC West rivals.
The Cardinals have topped the posted total in 14 of 17 December games and 37 of 53 games against teams with losing records, but they are on “under” streaks of 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway and 4-0 as a road favorite. The Niners are on “under” streaks of 5-1 in December, 9-3 as a home ‘dog and 5-0 in NFC West games.
Finally, the last five Monday Night Football contests have stayed under the total, following a 19-5-1 “over” stretch on Mondays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and UNDER
MNF - Cardinals at 49ers
By Kevin Rogers
The NFC West race is all but wrapped up by the defending conference champion Arizona Cardinals, but the 49ers aren't ready to give up just yet. The Cards travel to the Bay Area to battle a Niners squad that has lost six games by less than a touchdown this season.
Arizona has proved that last season's run to the Super Bowl is no fluke, putting together an 8-4 record. Most of the Cardinals' damage has been done on the road, winning five of six contests away from Glendale. The lone road defeat came with quarterback Kurt Warner on the bench, as the Cards fell at Tennessee, 20-17 in Week 12. Arizona allowed a 99-yard touchdown drive to Vince Young and the Titans, ending the Cards' five-game road winning streak. In Arizona's five road victories, the Cards accumulated 20 points or more, while Ken Whisenhunt's team has been favored just once on the road prior to Monday's game.
The Niners continue to compete, but have found ways to come up short on multiple occasions this season. San Francisco enters Monday's matchup with Arizona at 5-7 SU, but is 7-3-2 ATS. Mike Singletary's squad is a solid 4-2 SU/ATS at Candlestick Park, including blowout victories over division rivals Seattle and St. Louis. In the four home victories, the Niners have allowed ten points or less, while going 'under' the total each time. In San Francisco's two home defeats, the Niners have given up 45 points to the Falcons and 34 to the Titans, easily finishing 'over' the total.
The Cardinals made a huge statement last Sunday Night, blowing out Brett Favre and the Vikings, 30-17. Warner returned to the lineup after missing the Titans game to throw for 250 yards and three touchdowns on a solid Minnesota defense. The most conspicuous stat-line belonged to Vikings' star running back Adrian Peterson, who was held to just 19 yards on 13 carries against the 12th-ranked rushing defense in the league. Arizona owns a three-game lead inside the NFC West heading into Monday, but the Cards have plenty of revenge on their minds.
The Cards fell into the old "Super Bowl loser" letdown spot in Week 1, hosting the Niners. San Francisco slowed down Arizona's high-octane offense with a 20-16 victory at University of Phoenix Stadium, cashing as 5½-point road 'dogs. The Niners' defense held the Cardinals to only one touchdown, despite Arizona outgaining San Francisco by nearly 100 yards. The Niners did very little on the ground against Arizona's rush defense, gaining 21 yards on 25 carries. However, the Niners did not have former top pick Alex Smith at quarterback or rookie wide receiver Michael Crabtree playing in that game, but still picked up the win en route to a 2-0 start.
The opening week victory by San Francisco improved the road team's record to 8-0 ATS in this series dating back to December 2005. Interestingly, these two clubs are meeting on Monday Night Football for the third straight season. San Francisco edged Arizona, 20-17 in the opening week of 2007 at Candlestick. The Niners captured that victory with a late Arnaz Battle touchdown catch, but the Cards cashed as 3½-point road 'dogs. Last season in Glendale, the Niners fell short in a 29-24 loss that was mostly remembered for San Francisco botching up a last-second play from inside the two-yard line. San Francisco still picked up the cover as 9½-point 'dogs, and the game easily sailed 'over' the total of 47½.
The tide has turned on Monday Night recently from a totals aspect. The 'over' hit in eight of the first nine Monday Night games this season, but the 'under' has rebounded nicely, cashing in five straight. Home teams have struggled in the Monday spotlight the last two months, compiling a 2-6 ATS and 3-5 SU mark, but the Packers and Saints have cashed at home the last two weeks. The home squad has been an underdog on Monday Night six times this season, but those clubs receiving points are only 2-4 ATS.
VI capper Bruce Marshall feels the Niners are in a good position to pull the upset Monday Night, "Although this is a revenge spot for the Cards from opening week, and Arizona is indeed looking better than it did at this stage a year ago, don't expect the 49ers to lie down in a rare Monday night appearance at Candlestick. San Francisco has offered good value for Mike Singletary, dropping just 5 of its last 20 spread decisions (13-5-2), and the 49ers deserved better last week at Seattle, when Alex Smith posted one of his better games, passing for 310 yards."
Marshall says whenever Arizona is involved, keep an eye on the underdog, "Games have been trending to the underdog when the Cards play this season, with the 'dog going 9-3 in Arizona contests. Even though the 49ers are almost eliminated from the playoff chase, expect them to dig deep before surrendering their postseason hopes. That hook on top of the three could come into play in what figures to be a very competitive Monday night game at cold and windy (and maybe rainy) Candlestick."
Fellow VI capper Joe Nelson notes the Cardinals have played up or down to its competition this season, "Arizona has lost to three losing teams this season as there have been some inconsistent performances, but one of those losses came without Warner, who has posted incredible numbers in his last four games. The Arizona defense stepped up in a big way last week for a huge Sunday night win against Minnesota. That win gets the Cardinals back in the NFC conversation and the defending NFC champions will be a scary team in the playoffs for the top seeds to potentially face."
However, similar to Marshall's feeling, Nelson sees value in the home underdog, "Arizona is likely to be overvalued this week and San Francisco has been an excellent ATS team this season even if the 5-7 record is a major disappointment after the promising start. The 49ers have only lost twice at home this season and San Francisco is a very solid defensive team even if the offensive numbers are among the worst in the NFL. This will be a much bigger game for the 49ers as the Cardinals have to feel pretty secure in their division lead and may be a bit overconfident following up its best performance of the season in the national primetime game last week."
The Cardinals opened up as a three-point road favorite at -120 (Bet $1.20 to win $1.00), but the line has moved up with 85% of the action on Arizona. According to BetED.com sportsbook manager Randy Scott, Arizona's performance last Sunday Night will have the money on the road team this week, "Arizona hasn't played strong at home this season, going 3-3. However, the Cards have a very good road record at 5-1 and in all five road victories this season they have covered the spread. Not long after opening the line at Arizona -3, there were enough early Arizona backers to move it up to -3 ½. The action looks to continue on the Cardinals, but don't expect this line to grow any further than this. If anything, additional juice will be added."
The total opened up at 44½, and hasn't seen significant movement during the week, according to Scott, "The total is interesting, as we expect movement towards the "over" will occur prior to game-time."
Currently, the Cardinals are laying 3½ points at most spots, while the total is sitting at 44½.
vegasinsider.com
What Bettors Need To Know: Cardinals at 49ers
By BILL CLOUTIER
Despite reaching the Super Bowl last year, Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals (8-4) continue to fly under the radar. That may change after dominating the Vikings as home underdogs last week. A win tonight and they’ll clinch the NFC West.
This is the last hurrah for Mike Singletary’s 49ers. Singletary promised the Niners would contend for a playoff spot, but at 5-7, they have to run the table and get some help to get there.
All is calm
Early reports call for perfect weather with light winds in the upper-40s. The Niners probably wouldn’t mind a little wind off the Bay to limit some of the Cardinals' downfield passing game.
On the line
Arizona opened as a 1.5-point favorite and immediately jumped to 3.5-point picks. The line has not changed the entire week and the total has remained 44.5.
Injury front
For Arizona, Tim Hightower, who caught 12 passes for 121 yards in the team's first meeting this season, is listed as questionable with a thumb injury. Beanie Wells will get a bigger workload if Hightower is limited.
Warner is listed as questionable with a hip injury. He took a big hit on his very last pass of the game in Sunday night’s win over Vikings. He’s practiced so he should be fine but always check the injury report since Warner is just two weeks removed from a concussion.
San Fran cornerback Nate Clements will not play with a shoulder injury. Offensively the Niners are healthy with the exception of tackle Joe Staley, who is out with a knee injury.
No Nate, no problem
Arizona's aerial attack could mean big trouble for San Francisco backers. The Niners' passing defense ranks at the bottom of the league and with top cornerback Clements on the sidelines, Shawntae Spencer will be the one handling All-Pro WR Larry Fitzgerald.
Clements did a good job of limiting Fitzgerald's big plays. The wideout averaged just 5.8 catches and 65 yards in his last five games against San Fran.
Spencer says he's not intimidated about covering his former Pittsburgh Panther teammate.
"He's not the first big receiver I've played, and it's not the first time I've played against him," Spencer told the Sacramento Bee. "I played against Andre Johnson, and I played against Reggie Wayne. So I don't think that's going to be a problem for me."
Stocking stuffers
Remember back in 2004 when Kurt Warner's career was seemingly over? Well, Warner has passed for over 3,000 yards again this season, his third straight year eclipsing the lofty mark.
He's thrown 23 touchdown passes this season and last week he clearly outplayed MVP candidate Brett Favre.
Arizona has won seven of its last nines games and one of those games the Cardinals lost, Warner was inactive with a concussion. Anquan Boldin was spectacular last week giving Warner two of the league’s top targets.
Second verse, same as the first?
The first time these two teams met this season Arizona was a 5.5-point favorite but San Francisco posted a 20-16 victory. It was the second lowest point total of the season for the Cardinals.
San Francisco went 80 yards for the game-winning drive in the fourth quarter but what bothered Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt even more was when his team got the ball back, penalties halted their potential game-winning drive.
"I'm really more upset by getting the ball back in the fourth quarter in plus territory and going back 15 yards," he said. "That's horrible. That's unacceptable, and it's what causes you to lose football games."
Since then things have changed on both sidelines. Warner has been red-hot, throwing for 10 TDs and over 1,000 yards in his last four starts and Alex Smith is starting under center for the Niners.
New-look Niners
In San Francisco's first six games of the season, the club's offense looked sad and predictable. Searching for a change, Singletary inserted Smith into the starting lineup and the Niners began to employ the spread offense.
Smith immediately excelled. San Francisco passed the ball on 21 of its first 24 plays last week and Smith finished 27-for-45 for 310 yards and two touchdowns. Still, the 49ers lost at Seattle 20-17. They couldn’t convert on third downs and dropped nine passes.
"In every situation we just found a way to screw it up," Singletary said. “Teams that talk about going to playoffs can't do that."
Trend-setting
If San Francisco can make some plays on offense this could be a high-scoring affair. Expect to see a lot of Michael Crabtree, who was targeted 12 times by Smith last week, and Vernon Davis, who has 10 touchdown receptions this year.
The Cardinals, however, are 5-1 on the road this season (5-0 in Warner starts) and typically strong defensively on the road. They are allowing 15.2 points per game in road games, second only to the Colts' league-leading average (15.0).
Arizona is 6-1 ATS the spread on the road in the last seven games.
The 49ers have been Monday night monsters covering the spread 15 of their last 20 appearances. They've won their past two home games despite totaling only 30 points in them.
The Cards have won six of the last nine meetings in the series.
MNF Week 14
Cardinals (8-4) @ 49ers (5-7)-- Niners (+6.5) beat Arizona 20-16 in season opener, back when they were fashionable choice to make playoffs, but Cards are 7-2 in last nine games, scoring 31-30 points in winning last two home tilts. Redbirds are 1-4 when they score less than 24 points- Warner didn't play in their last loss. 49ers held four of last six opponents under 24; they're 4-2 at home, losing 45-10 to Atlanta, 34-27 to Titans. SF is 0-7 when they allow 17 or more more points, 5-0 when they allow less. When Warner is healthy, the Cardinals are explosive (scored 21+ points in Warner's last eight starts).
Tips and Trends
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Cardinals (-3.5, O/U 45): Arizona is 8-4 both SU and ATS on the season. The Cardinals have played 6 road games, and are an impressive 5-1 SU and ATS. This Cardinals defense has been especially stout away from home, as they have held each opponent to 21 PTS or fewer. Arizona has been a very opportunistic defense, as they've forced 6 turnovers in their past 4 games. They also are 3rd in the NFL with 35 sacks. Offensively, the Cardinals move the ball with the arm of QB Kurt Warner. Warner directs the 5th best passing offense in the NFL with 267 yards PPG. Warner has thrown for over 3000 YDS with 23 TDs against 11 INTs. WR Larry Fitzgerald is the main target for Warner, as he is tied for the NFL lead with 10 TD receptions as well as 975 receiving YDS. The Cardinals lost to the 49ers in Week 1 as -5.5 favorites.
Cardinals are 6-1 ATS last 7 road games.
Over is 13-5 last 18 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Key Injuries - QB Kurt Warner (hip) is probable.
DE Bertrand Berry (heart) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)
49ers: This is a must win for San Francisco if they have any chance at a playoff berth. This Niners team is 5-7 SU and 7-3-2 ATS on the season. They are 4-2 both SU and ATS at home this year. San Francisco has not lost ATS as an underdog this season, going a combined 3-0-2 ATS. The Niners are in the midst of transforming their offense to a pass first spread offense. The main reason why is starting QB Alex Smith. Smith is again the franchise QB for this team, and he's led his team to a 3-3 SU record thus far. In his past 2 starts he's thrown for 4 TDs and no INTs with QB ratings in the mid 90's in each game. With his development and dedication to the passing game, the Niners have only averaged 14 rushing attempts per game over their past 3 games. The Niners only allow 19.4 PPG, and are 5th in the NFL at stopping the run, at 95.4 YPG. The Niners limited Arizona to 40 rushing yards their previous meeting this season.
49ers are 6-0-2 ATS last 8 games as an underdog.
Under is 9-4 last 13 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - T Joe Staley (leg) is doubtful.
WR Isaac Bruce (ankle) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 17