NFL Football News and Notes Monday 12/7

BALTIMORE (6 - 5) at GREEN BAY (7 - 4)

Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

BALTIMORE vs. GREEN BAY
Baltimore is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Baltimore is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Green Bay is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

BALTIMORE at GREEN BAY
BALTIMORE: 4-0 Over off 2 straight home games
GREEN BAY: 11-3 ATS off cover as DD favorite

Intriguing Non-Conference Matchup for Monday Night
By Doug Upstone

Green Bay and Baltimore share wildcard aspirations in their respective conferences. The teams will go head-to-head at Lambeau Field on Monday night to wrap up the Week 13 slate, each hoping it turns out to be lucky. The Packers are 7-4 and facing a two-game road trip following this one, placing a premium on gaining a victory here.

Green Bay (6-4-1 ATS) has come a long way since a loss to previously winless Tampa Bay in Week 8 dropped them to .500. Their convincing 34-12 victory at Detroit on Thanksgiving Day was their third in a row and improved their chances in a wild-card race sure to come down to the wire as usual. They will come into this contest 24-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers tied a career-high with three touchdown passes and comes into Monday nights game at Lambeau Field against Baltimore in a serious groove with 881yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions since the defeat to the Buccaneers. It should also be noted hes been doing a better job in getting rid of the ball instead of holding onto it and has been sacked only three times in the last two games working behind a much-maligned offensive line that gave up 41 sacks through nine contests. Hes thrown an interception in only three games all year, and his 22-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 104.9 rating are among the best in the NFL.

The re-signing of tackle Mark Tauscher has solidified the offensive line and the combination of understanding Dom Capers defense better and facing a series of weak offenses has led to Green Bay having No.1 total defense coming into Week 13 and they are 14-4 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better. Cornerback Charles Woodson is seemingly only getting better instead of older and his team is 11-1 ATS at the frozen tundra vs. squads outscoring opponents by six or more points per game after eight contests have been played during the season.

For Baltimore (6-5 SU & ATS), this is their third prime-time game in four weeks. The last time they played on Monday their defense pitched a shutout at lowly Cleveland but the offense struggled to put points on the board. One of their two touchdowns in the 16-point victory was a pick six by Dawan Landry. Last Sunday nights overtime win over Pittsburgh put them a game over .500, but theyve produced just 58 points over the past month. The Ravens have been consistent money-makers with 21-10 ATS record in last 31 contests.

This week could ultimately determine if Baltimore returns to the playoffs following an appearance in the AFC Championship Game last season. After the Packers only one of its last four opponents has a winning record (Steelers) and the other three (Lions, Bears and Raiders) are floundering.

The Ravens need to get back to stretching defenses, and with pass-rushing linebacker Aaron Kampman and cornerback Al Harris missing from Green Bays lineup itll be up to offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to turn second-year quarterback Joe Flacco loose. Flacco completed only two touchdown passes in five November games and also had three sub-200-yard efforts. The Ravens own a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS mark vs. non-conference foes under John Harbaugh and their next three games are against NFC North opponents.

Betonline.com has Green Bay as three-point favorites, with total of 43, but they are just 2-5 SU (4-3 ATS) on Monday night under Mike McCarthy. The Packers will have had what accounts for almost a bye week before this one, with it being 11 days since dumping Detroit on Turkey Day and teams like the Pack are 18-7-1 OVER in next outing if they beat a division team on a Thursday. Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in last 10 road underdog assignments and 10-2 OVER as a visitor catching seven points or less.

Baltimore covers if they run the ball and control the clock. Their running attack is 14th in the league and they will take on the Packers defense which is fourth against the run. That means finding which of their three backs is the most effective vs. the Pack and go at them. Ravens coaches have to expect Green Bay will send pressure, as the offensive line did a poor job last week against Pittsburgh. They will have to clean this up to give Flacco time to work the ball downfield. Baltimore has to bring heavy pressure on Rodgers and force him to make quick decisions or have him revert to holding the ball, keeping the Ravens in positive down and distance situations that help pull the upset.

Green Bay covers if they stone the Birds running game and Woodson eliminates Derrick Mason. That leaves Flacco with few options and makes blitz packages more effective. Teams that have beaten Baltimore have chosen one method to start the game, either heavy run or heavy pass. Whichever way McCarthy chooses, stick with it to test for success and eventually take deep shots against ordinary secondary. If Baltimore decides to bring defensive pressure, utilize two tight end sets giving Rodgers a down the field threat for having to make quick throw.

Monday Night System - Play Against any road underdog that has failed to cover last two games. (21-10 ATS)

What Bettors Need To Know: Ravens at Packers
By JON KUIPERIJ

Two teams in the hunt for Wild Card spots clash Monday at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay (7-4 straight up, 6-4-1 ATS) has won three straight, but hasn’t since it pounding the Lions on Thanksgiving. Baltimore (6-5 SU and ATS) has alternated wins and losses the last six weeks. The Ravens are coming off an overtime win against the Steelers last week.

Line movement

Green Bay opened as a 3-point favorite and moved to 3.5-point chalk Friday afternoon. The total was posted at 44 and has been bet down to 43.

Injury report

The Packers lost two key parts of their defense recently with season-ending injuries to defensive end Aaron Kampman and cornerback Al Harris. Veteran left tackle Chad Clifton is questionable for this week with a hamstring injury.

Baltimore has also taken hits to its defense with knee injuries to cornerback Fabian Washington and linebacker Terrell Suggs. Washington may be out for the season, while Suggs missed last week's game and is listed as doubtful for Monday.

Safety Ed Reed (ankle) did not participate in practice this week and is questionable. Linebacker Ray Lewis continues to battle a foot injury but is expected to play Monday.

Let it snow

The Ravens got a sneak peek at the potential conditions for Monday night's game at Lambeau.

Heavy snow dumped down on the team's training facility in Owings Mills, Md. on Saturday.

"You learn how to deal with the footing, you learn how to deal with the elements," said Baltimore coach John Harbaugh. "I think that's good. It was good."

Lambeau has a heating system built underneath the turf and the field often gets soggy in snowy conditions.

According to Weather.com, the temperature Monday may dip into the low 20s and there is a 60 percent chance of snow.

Sack the pack

It's hard to throw a pass when you're sitting on your ass.

Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ranks third in the NFL in QB rating (104.9) and fourth in TD passes (22), while throwing only five interceptions. But he's also been sacked 44 times, nine more times than anyone else in the league.

Rodgers has acknowledged he has to get rid of the ball faster, but a porous offensive line is getting most of the blame.

"We've got to find a way to protect the guy longer," Packers left guard Daryn College told reporters. "When he's not on his butt, he makes plays. And we need to find a way to keep him standing."

Return to form

Baltimore's defense is getting back to its old self.

Dominant for years, the Ravens defense was ranked 19th in the NFL after the first seven games of this season, including 23rd against the pass. Now, after allowing less than 12 points a game in the last five weeks, Baltimore ranks 10th in overall defense.

"I think we've been great," said linebacker Ray Lewis. "We're playing smart football. Not just defensively, but as a team overall."

Kicking it

After struggling in the kicking game earlier this season, the Ravens appear to have found a solution in Billy Cundiff.

Cundiff was brought in last month to replace Steve Hauschka, who was cut after missing several important field-goal tries.

Cundiff booted five field goals in his Ravens debut two weeks ago and nailed the game-winner in overtime against the Steelers last week. Cundiff, who also played five games for the Browns earlier this season, has made 13 of 15 field goal attempts this year.

Baltimore let long-time kicker Matt Stover go in the offseason.

Trends

Green Bay has won four of the past five meetings between the two teams, though the Ravens routed the Pack 48-3 in the most recent meeting in 2005.

Baltimore is on a 10-4 ATS run on the road, 20-8 on grass and 17-8 overall. The Pack are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games as home faves.

The over is 13-3-1 in the Ravens' last 17 games as a road dog, 8-2 in Baltimore's last 10 Monday games, 24-11-1 in the Packers' last 36 games overall and 13-6 in the last 19 games at Lambeau.

MNF Week 13

Ravens (6-5) @ Packers (7-4)-- December night game in Lambeau; Packers are 5-2 since bye, winning last three games by 10-6-22 points. Green Bay defense held seven of last eight opponents to 81 or less rushing yards. Baltimore is 0-5 when it runs ball for less than 125 yards. Ravens lost three of last four road games, with lone win at 1-10 Cleveland. After scoring 30+ points in five of its first seven games, Baltimore scored 14.5 ppg in last four, scoring four TDs on its last 43 drives. Rodgers has been sacked 44 times this year, but Ravens are sackless in last two games. NFC North home favorites are 2-7 vs spread in non-division games. AFC North clubs are 5-3 vs number.

Baltimore (6-5 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (7-4, 6-4-1 ATS)

The Packers, who are trying to remain in the NFC playoff picture, shoot for their fourth straight victory when they welcome the Ravens to Lambeau Field.

Baltimore remains an AFC wild-card hopeful after beating Pittsburgh last week 20-17, but coming up well short as a nine-point home favorite. The Ravens have alternated wins and losses the last six weeks (3-3 ATS), but they have won two of their last three on the road (SU and ATS). Baltimore is 13th in the NFL on offense, averaging 353.4 yards per contest, and 10th in total defense (308.9 ypg) and sixth against the run (97.6 rushing ypg).

Green Bay ran its winning streak to three in a row (2-0-1 ATS) with its Thanksgiving Day 34-12 victory over the Lions, cashing as an 11-point road favorite. The defense has carried the Packers this season, ranking second in the NFL, allowing 281.5 total ypg, including just 89.1 ypg on the ground. Green Bay also ranks sixth in total offense (382 ypg), and QB Aaron Rodgers (3,136 yards, 22 TDs, 5 INTs) leads the sixth-best passing attack (262.8 ypg).

These teams haven’t squared off since 2005 when Baltimore crushed Green Bay 48-3 as a 3½-point home favorite. The Packers had won and covered the previous two regular-season contests dating back to 1998.

The Ravens are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against teams with a winning record, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 17-8 overall, 10-4 on the road, 7-3 as road ‘dogs, 4-1 in December and 13-6 following a straight-up win. Green Bay is on several ATS slides, including 0-6 in Week 13 games, 1-5-1 after a spread-cover, 2-5-1 as a home chalk and 3-7-2 at home against teams with a winning road mark.

For Baltimore, the “under” has been the play in four of the last five overall, but the “over” is on streaks of 9-4-1 on the road, 8-2 on Monday, 8-2-1 as a ‘dog and 5-2 after a non-cover. The Packers are on a plethora of “over” runs, including 24-11-1 overall, 13-6 at home, 18-7 as a favorite, 12-4 as a home chalk and 22-5 after a spread cover.

Finally, the “over” is 19-9-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (8-5 this year). However, the last four Monday contests have stayed under the total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Tips and Trends

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers

Ravens: Baltimore is 6-5 SU this season, having alternated wins and losses since their bye week in Week 7. The Ravens are 6-5 ATS this year, having lost 3 of their past 4 covers. Baltimore is 3-2 ATS on the road this season. The Ravens are 2-2 ATS this year as an underdog, and today represents the largest underdog point spread this season for the Ravens. QB Joe Flacco has thrown for nearly 2,750 YDS along with 13 TDs against 8 INTs. RB Ray Rice has emerged as one of the best multi dimemsional running backs in the NFL. Rice has 8 consecutive games of at least 100 total yards. Since Week 4, only Chris Johnson has more yards from scrimmage than Rice. Since their bye week, the Ravens have held 5 consecutive opponents to 17 PTS or fewer. This Ravens defense is allowing 17.1 PPG, 4th best in the NFL.

Ravens are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a road underdog.
Over is 13-3-1 last 17 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - LB Terrell Suggs (knee) is doubtful.
LB Prescott Burgess (hamstring) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Packers (-3.5, O/U 42.5): Green Bay has won 3 straight games to get to 7-4 SU for the season. They are 6-4-1 ATS, and 3-2-1 ATS at home this year. This is the second smallest spread Green Bay has faced this year. The last time they were -3.5 at home, they lost outright by 12 to the Vikings. QB Aaron Rodgers has been especially hot during their current 3 game winning streak. Rodgers has thrown for nearly 900 YDS with 6 TDs and 0 INTs with a 70% completion rate. WRs Donald Driver and Greg Jennings have over 1,500 YDS receiving combined, including 8 TDs. This Packers defense allows an NFL low 282 YPG. The Packers are the only team in the NFL that allows less that 200 YDS passing and 100 YDS rushing on the season. Green Bay also has the advantage of having 3 more days to prepare for this game than the Ravens.

Packers are 2-5 ATS last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 12-4 last 16 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - G T.J. Lang (concussion) is questionable.
DE Aaron Kampman (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total of the Day)