NFL Football News and Notes Sunday 11/29

Total Talk - Week 12
By Chris David

Early Start

As mentioned in our Turkey Day edition of Total Talk, the ‘under’ went 10-4-1 in Week 11 and all three of the primetime battles were low-scoring affairs. After this surge, the ‘over’ now stands at 80-78-2 (51%) on the season. We also talked about the ‘under’ trend on Thursday’s this year in pro football and it continued with all three games going ‘under’ on Thanksgiving. The ‘under’ is now 6-0 on Thursday this season and next week’s early battle between the Jets and Bills doesn’t look like a shootout on paper. Stay tuned!

Back to the Well

In our fourth edition of Total Talk, my colleague at VegasInsider.com Kevin Rogers pointed out a solid total trend on teams playing three-straight on the road. It’s more geared toward the playoffs, but situations do arise in the regular season. The numbers are incredible and we’ve got a great sample size to measure as well. Over the last five seasons, teams playing their third straight road game are 19-8-2 to the ‘over,’ including a perfect 5-0 mark last year.

This season, the Giants and Seahawks were the only two teams in the league that have to play three straight on the road, with no break either. New York already completed its three-game stint and the third battle against the Chiefs went ‘over’ but it was close. The Giants stopped the Chiefs 27-16, which barely eclipsed the closing number of 42.5.

In Week 12, Seattle can keep this trend rolling along when it plays its third consecutive contest outside the Great Northwest. The Seahawks face St. Louis at Edward Jones Dome on Sunday and the oddsmakers made the total 42.5.

Something has to give in this spot, since Seattle hasn't won on the road and St. Louis hasn't earned a victory at home this year. Anybody watching the Seahawks lately knows that its defense is garbage, especially on the road (32.2 PPG). The Rams have been crushed at home (0-5) but let it be known that the team has played the Packers, Vikings, Colts, Saints and Cardinals. Quarterback Kyle Boller gets the nod for St. Louis this week, with Marc Bulger (knee) nursing an injury. Even though Seattle's defense has been destroyed on the road, they did blank the Rams 28-0 in its Week 1 opener at home.

Including the G-Men victory, the ‘over’ is 20-8-2 (71%). No system or trend is 100% guaranteed folks, but keep it in mind down the road.

Quick Hitters – Divisional Style

Colts at Texans: Eight of the last nine have gone 'over' and the last four played in Texas have seen an average of 56 points scored.

Browns at Bengals: The 'under' is 3-1 in the last four, with the lone 'over' coming in Cincinnati's 23-20 overtime victory against Cleveland earlier this season.

Bears at Vikings: Last year, both games easily went 'over' the number. On the road this year, Chicago has averaged 14 PPG.

Redskins at Eagles: Philadelphia dropped Washington 27-17 in a MNF affair on Oct. 26. The Eagles have seen the 'over' go 7-3 this season. Six of the last nine in this series has gone 'over'.

Dolphins at Bills: Buffalo has seen the 'under' go 5-0 in its last five games. Miami blasted Buffalo 38-10 on Oct. 4, which easily went 'over' the number (37).

Buccaneers at Falcons: Last year, the 'under' went 2-0 in the two regular season meetings. In 2007, the 'over' went 2-0 and in 2006 the 'under' went 2-0. Does that mean both games go 'over' this year? Atlanta has seen its last five totals go 'over' and Tampa Bay has given up 25, 35, 33, 16, 33 on the road this year. The number is high (46) but seems doable.

Chiefs at Chargers: Three of the last four encounters at Qualcomm Stadium have gone 'under' the number.

Steelers at Ravens: The SNF battle between these AFC North rivals will be the first meeting of the season. Last year, they met twice in the regular season and then in the AFC Championship. The 'over' went 2-1 in those contests and is currently on a 5-1 run in the last six. After watching its first game go 'over' at home this year, the Ravens have seen the 'under' go 4-0 in the last four from M&T Bank Stadium.

Double-Nickel Plus

Last week we talked about totals listed at 50 points or higher while focusing on the Saints-Buccaneers matchup. New Orleans captured a 38-7 road victory and the 45 points went 'under' the closing number of 51. Even though statistics on paper can justify an 'over' play for these high totals, gamblers should be weary of the 50-spot the books post on totals.

Including this outcome, there have been eight games that featured totals of 50 points or more and the 'under' has gone 6-2 (75%) in those contests. New Orleans has been featured in five of those games and the 'under' is 3-2.

This Monday, the Patriots invade The Big Easy for an expected shootout against New Orleans. Oddsmaker Randy Scott of betEd.com believed the total would settle at 54 points but the betting public has already juiced the line up to 56.

Can this game go 'over' the number?

The Saints are averaging 36.4 PPG at the Louisiana Superdome this year and even though their defense (20.4 PPG) has been decent, the unit hasn't faced an attack like the Patriots (29 PPG) all season long. Since starting the season slow after last year's injury, QB Tom Brady has guided the team to 59, 35, 27, 34 and 31 the last five weeks.

This will be the final AFC East battle for the Saints this year. The 'under' went 2-1 in the first three against the Bills, Jets and Dolphins. New England has faced the Falcons and Buccaneers from the NFC South and those two teams combined for 17 points, which helped both contests go 'under' the total.

After watching the 'over' start the year 8-1 on Monday Night Football, the 'under' has cashed the previous three weeks.

Fearless Predictions

We tried to double-up with the three games on Thursday and we caught some bad luck. The Packers-Lions matchup had plenty of opportunities to go ‘over’ the number but when you put up field goals instead of touchdowns, you’re more than likely going to see an ‘under’ ticket. We did cash the ‘under’ between the Raiders and Cowboys, which helped the Best Bets go 1-1. On the year, the Best Bets are 11-10-1 (0) and our teasers are 3-8 (-500). The goal is turn a profit and with six weeks left the deficit is $500. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Colts-Texans 47.5

Best Under: Chiefs-Chargers 45

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Colts-Texans 38.5
Over Buccaneers-Falcons 37
Over Seahawks-Rams 33

Trend Setters - Week 12
By Kevin Rogers

The Thanksgiving holiday weekend loads us up with food and football, as there are plenty of games to wager on Sunday in the NFL. To make life easier, we'll provide you with valuable trends on five games, including four divisional matchups.

Browns at Bengals (-14, 38½)

The old battle of Ohio has obviously lost luster over the years thanks to the team that hails from the Northern part of the state. The Browns found a new way to lose last Sunday, squandering a 24-3 lead in a last-second defeat at Detroit, dropping Cleveland to 1-9. The Bengals didn't fare much better, getting upended at Oakland in the final seconds, 20-17.

Eric Mangini may not be the model NFL coach, but the Cleveland head man does own a solid 9-3 ATS mark in his career on the road against division opponents. The Browns picked up a cover despite the loss to the Lions, and this sets up nicely for Cleveland. Since 2004, the Browns are 8-3 ATS off a SU loss/ATS win. However, getting a lot of points isn't a good thing for Cleveland, as the Browns are 1-7 ATS the last eight games as an underdog of at least ten points.

The Bengals have been great as an underdog this season, but in the role of a favorite, Cincinnati is 'fade' material. Marvin Lewis' team is 0-4 ATS when laying points this season, and is 1-7 ATS as 'chalk' since 2008. The Bengals own a poor 3-15 ATS mark at home against division opponents coming off a SU loss.

Bucs at Falcons (-12½, 46)

Atlanta is happy to be home after losing its fifth road game of the season, falling in overtime to the Giants. The Falcons do own a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark at the Georgia Dome, as the Bucs invade Atlanta. Tampa Bay played better recently, upsetting Green Bay and losing on a late field goal at Miami. However, the Bucs were spanked last week against the unbeaten Saints, 31-7.

It's pretty evident the Falcons play more confidently inside the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome, as Atlanta is 7-3 ATS the last ten as a home favorite. Mike Smith's club has been a solid 'over' play recently, going 'over' the total in six of the last seven games. Dating back to last season, the Falcons are 12-3 to the 'over' against NFC foes.

The Bucs have achieved moderate success in Atlanta through the years, compiling a 7-2 ATS mark the last nine trips to the Georgia Dome. However, Tampa Bay is 2-9 ATS the last 11 games following a SU loss, and 4-9 ATS the last 13 games as an underdog of at least seven points.

Colts (-3½, 48) at Texans

Indianapolis remains one of the last two unbeatens in the league, alongside New Orleans, following a narrow 17-15 victory at Baltimore. Houston has slipped up recently, dropping two straight, including an outright loss as a home favorite against Tennessee on Monday.

Three weeks ago, the Colts squeezed by the Texans, 20-17, as eight of the last nine meetings have finished 'over' the total. Indianapolis has been money in the bank this season on the road for bettors, going 5-0 ATS away from Lucas Oil Stadium, including a 4-0 ATS mark when laying points on the road.

The Texans are listed as a home underdog for the first time this season, but it is a profitable role for Houston, going 7-1 ATS the last eight when receiving points at Reliant Stadium. Under Gary Kubiak, the Texans are a perfect 7-0 ATS as a home 'dog against an opponent off a SU win.

Bears at Vikings (-11, 47)

As Jay Cutler goes, so goes the Bears' chances at being successful. Chicago has dropped five of six since a 3-1 start, as the Bears head to Minnesota to battle the 9-1 Vikings. Minnesota continues to roll, as the Vikes drilled the Seahawks last week, 35-9, inching closer to securing at least a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs.

The Bears' offense has scored 21 points or fewer in seven games this season, going 1-6 ATS. However, Lovie Smith's team is a solid 5-0 ATS the last five as double-digit underdogs, including the opening week upset of the Colts to start 2008.

Minnesota was not a good play when laying double-digits early in the Brad Childress era, starting 0-3 ATS. The Vikings have rebounded nicely this season in that situation, going 3-0-1 ATS as ten-point favorites or higher. Following a strong defensive performance, however, has not been a strong suit for Minnesota. The Vikes are 2-6-1 ATS the last nine games after allowing ten points or less, coming off the big victory over the Seahawks this past Sunday.

Cardinals at Titans (-2½, 47)

Arizona is in full control of the NFC West, sitting atop the division at 7-3, but even more impressive is its 5-0 road mark. The Cards head to Tennessee to battle a suddenly-hot Titans squad that has won four straight to creep up to 4-6.

Interestingly, the Cards have been favored only once on the road this season, while this will be the fifth time Arizona is an away 'dog. Ken Whisenhunt's team is 4-0 ATS when getting points on the road, with the lone non-road cover coming this past Sunday at St. Louis. The Cards are 5-3 ATS the last eight road games against AFC opponents, including a Week 2 victory at Jacksonville.

Since 1985, home favorites riding a four-game winning streak off a road underdog victory are 21-9 SU and 18-10-2 ATS (64%), as the Titans fall into this situation. Also, Tennessee is 16-2 ATS the last 18 off a SU win against a non-division opponent coming off an ATS loss.

What Bettors Need To Know: Steelers at Ravens
By JON KUIPERIJ

Fierce division rivals, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, meet again Sunday night in a game that has serious playoff implications. With the Bengals (7-3 overall, 5-0 in the division) looking good to win the AFC North title, the 6-4 Steelers and 5-5 Ravens are likely battling for a Wild Card spot. Sunday's game in Baltimore is a rematch of last year's AFC title game, won 23-14 by Pittsburgh.

What's the line?

Due to the uncertain status of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (concussion), most books had not released a pointspread or total for the game. The few that have listed the Ravens as 2-point favorites and set the total at 42. Roethlisberger fully participated in practices this week but reports Saturday said the starter would sit out due to a concussion.

Injury report

Big Ben's status has received all the attention on the Steelers' injury report, but the Black and Gold will be without a couple other key players Sunday night.

Safety Troy Polamalu remains out indefinitely with a knee injury (Steelers are 1-4 ATS without him this season). Backup pivot Charlie Batch (wrist) is also unavailable, meaning third-stringer Dennis Dixon would be pressed into service if Roethlisberger can't make it through the game.

The Ravens could be without several of their Pro Bowlers for Sunday's clash. Safety Ed Reed (foot) and tight end Todd Heap (chest) were both limited in practice this week and are listed as questionable, while linebacker Terrell Suggs (knee) is out for a couple weeks. Linebacker Ray Lewis admitted his foot and ankle were bothering him against the Colts last week, but he's probable for Sunday.

History lesson

The Steelers won both their regular-season meetings with the Ravens last year, then beat Baltimore again in the AFC title game. The two regular-season contests were decided by less than a touchdown, while Polamalu's late interception return for a major gave the Steelers a nine-point win in the playoff clash.

"The way we play each other, it's always a physical ballgame, it's always going to come down to one of the last plays," Ray Lewis said. "It's just the way it is."

The teams will meet again Dec. 27 in Pittsburgh.

Unspecial teams

Pittsburgh has allowed an NFL-high four kick-return touchdowns in its past five games. The last team to allow that many in an entire season was the Minnesota Vikings in 1998.

"Five touchdowns on special teams coupled with 25th in the league in turnover ratio will make a team that's capable of moving the ball and stopping people 6-4," coach Mike Tomlin said.

Major shortage

Baltimore's offense has sputtered in the past three games, producing only one touchdown in that span. Quarterback Joe Flacco has not thrown a touchdown pass in those three games, the longest drought of his young career.

It won't be easy to snap out of that funk against the Steelers. Flacco completed only 44.9 per cent of his passes in three meetings with Pittsburgh last year, throwing one touchdown and five interceptions. He was sacked 10 times in those games.

Tough schedule

Baltimore's 5-5 record might look mediocre, but the Ravens have also played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. All five of Baltimore's losses have come to current division leaders (the Bengals twice, Colts, Vikings and Patriots).

"These losses have been against teams that are quality football teams," coach John Harbaugh said. "Call them elite football teams in the league, but we aspire to that."

The Ravens' schedule gets a bit easier after Sunday. Baltimore will play the Packers, Lions, Bears, Steelers and Raiders to close out the season.

Trends

The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the division rivals, going 6-4 against the spread. Five of the last six games have gone over the total.

The under has cashed in the Ravens' last four games overall, their last five games against the AFC and their last six home games against teams with winning road records.

Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games overall, but the Steelers are 16-2 straight up in night games under Tomlin.

NFL Week 12 Betting Options
By Steve Makinen

Thought this would be a good time for a changeup this week in the NFL. Well make a run through the entire Sunday day time slate, paraphrasing what Joe Friday from Dragnet used to say, Just the facts please. Take a look at key information on both sides and totals action for Week 12 of the NFL season. Lines courtesy of Betonline.com.

INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5, 47.5) at HOUSTON

The Texans (5-5, 5-4-1 ATS) come into Sundays game vs. Indianapolis as winners of their previous eight games as a home underdog against the spread. In six of those, they won outright but the two straight up losses came at the hands of the Colts, who won at Reliant Stadium by four points in both 2007 and 2008. Going back even further, Houston has won just once in seven home tries vs. Indianapolis, but has compiled a competitive 5-2 ATS mark. If the Colts (10-0, 6-4 ATS), who remain undefeated after winning at Baltimore, have had any weak spot when it comes to pointspreads, its been in divisional play, 7-14 ATS dating back to 2006. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight AFC South home games. Their contests vs. division foes have been high scoring as well, with 16-6 OVER mark.

CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI (-14, 39)

The Browns (1-9, 4-6 ATS) nearly handed Cincinnati a defeat back in Week 4, falling 23-20. That game was in Cleveland, and marked the third straight win in the head-to-head series by the visiting team. This second meeting is at Paul Brown Stadium in the Queen City, and would seem to favor Cleveland based upon that last trend, but unfortunately, the Browns have been dreadful, particularly on the road, being outscored by 14.5 points per game while going 1-5 SU & 3-3 ATS. The latest debacle was in Detroit where they lost 38-37, giving up a 24-3 lead. For the Bengals (7-3, 6-4 ATS), off the upset loss in Oakland, they have gotten to the top of the AFC North thanks to their performance against divisional foes. This will in fact be their last division game of 2009, and they are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS to date. Cincinnati is shredding poor pass defenses and is 16-3 ATS vs. teams allowing seven or more passing yards per attempt in the second half of the season.

CHICAGO at MINNESOTA (-11, 47)

The Vikings (6-3-1 ATS) wrap up a season long three-game homestand when they host Chicago. This head-to-head series has been one dominated by home teams in recent years, 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS since 2002. It will be the first matchup of 2009, with the next one in just four weeks. Chicago (4-6 ATS) has dropped five of its last six games to fall to 4-6, and with the logjam of teams in the NFC wildcard hunt, postseason hopes are dimming. The Bears boast a record of 25-12 ATS in November road contests, 8-5-1 ATS under coach Lovie Smith. The Vikings, now 9-1 after beating Seattle, have swept their divisional opponents so far this season, going 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. Last Novembers 34-14 win by host Minnesota marked the first time in six games where the winning margin was more than 10 points. Chicagos collapse could be extended since they are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. offensive teams scoring 29 or more points a contest, losing by almost 24 point a game.

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (-9, 40)

Washington faces a second straight divisional road tilt when it travels to Philadelphia (6-4 SU & ATS). The Redskins (3-7 ATS) look for better results than what happened in Dallas, a 7-6 defeat that dropped their record to 3-7. That was Washingtons third straight divisional loss of 2009; however theyve won their last two games in Philly, both as 6-1/2 point underdogs. The Eagles won the first meeting between these teams back on Monday night, October 26th, 27-17. That marked the fifth time in six games that the visiting team won outright. Head coach Andy Reids team is 1-1 SU & ATS vs. divisional foes at home this season and just 2-7 ATS in that scenario dating back four seasons. However, they are 25-10 ATS vs. bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%), and 18-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points in his tenure.

MIAMI (-3, 40) at BUFFALO

The Dolphins are .500 for the first time this season, and as much as its been an uphill climb to this point, it gets even tougher, as Miami (5-5 ATS) will be without stud running back Ronnie Brown against a challenging end of the year slate. This one at Buffalo is the easiest on paper, as the Bills (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are struggling and just last week fired their coach. Plus, the Dolphins boast an impressive 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS mark on the road in divisional play under coach Tony Sparano. They will however, be looking to snap a skid of eight straight ATS losses vs. poor offensive teams gaining 285 or fewer yards per game. Buffalo averages just 275.7 yards and is scoring just 13.2 points per game in its four home contests of 2009 (1-3 SU & ATS). The Bills are 8-4 SU and ATS in last dozen hosting Miami, and had won four straight prior to the last seasons defeat.

ARIZONA at TENNESSEE (-3, 46)

Arizona has yet to lose on the road in five games this season, covering four of them. A sixth straight win will be a challenge though, as the Cardinals (7-3, 6-4 ATS) will be visiting Tennessee, a team that seems to have awaken from the dead. After dropping their first six games, the Titans (4-6, 5-5 ATS) have rallied with running back Chris Johnson insisting they would finish 10-6. Considering HC Jeff Fishers team won its first 10 games on 2008, maybe the boast wasnt so outlandish. If the winning streak is still intact after Monday, Tennessee looks to make it five straight and extend a 32-14 ATS record vs. NFC foes under Fisher. Arizona has gotten hot itself, winning six of seven, regaining the Super Bowl form of 2008. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cards are 8-0 ATS vs. teams allowing 350 or more yards per contest and Tennessee concedes 376. Given the Titans turnaround, dont ignore their 7-0 ATS mark after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in three straight games.

SEATTLE (-3, 40.5) at ST LOUIS

A strange NFL scheduling twist finds St. Louis (1-9, 5-5 ATS) wrapping up a three-game homestand against Seattle (3-7 SU & ATS), a team finishing off a three-game road trip. Not only are three-game swings rare in general, but teams squaring off in opposite ends is almost unheard of. It will be the second meeting between the divisional rivals of 2009, with the Seahawks having taken the season opener 27-0 at home. It was their fifth straight win in the head-to-head series, both SU & ATS. In St. Louis, Seattle has taken four straight, none by more than six-points however. The Rams are on a 3-12 ATS slide vs. division foes, and 7-22 ATS in same-season revenge spots. A win by either side would be the first of the year in the current home/road setup, with Seattle 0-5 away, and St. Louis 0-5 as host.

TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA (-12, 46)

With two head-to-head matchups in the final six weeks of their respective schedules, Tampa Bay (1-9, 5-7 ATS) will have the chance to really impact Atlantas playoff hopes. As it is, those hopes are already fading, as the Falcons (5-5, 3-7 ATS) have lost four of five games to slip back to .500. They have been solid at home however, going 4-0 SU and ATS in 2009, and 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the year-and-half under HC Mike Smith. His team starts a key three-game homestand here against a Buccaneers team that has won just once, and is 1-13 SU and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 tilts overall. Tampa Bay has gotten the better of the head-to-head series between these divisional rivals of late, offering a 12-5 SU and ATS in last 12 years, including 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS over the last two. Atlanta has not been double-digit chalk since 2005 and the favorite is 16-5-2 ATS in this series.

CAROLINA at NY JETS (-3, 41.5)

Both the Panthers and Jets playoff hopes took a serious hit this past week, as losses dropped each team to 4-6 with six games left. It might take a miracle for both clubs, as their remaining schedules, particularly in late December, are loaded with quality opponents. Its hard to believe that New York (4-6 ATS) was once 3-0 and headed to a showdown with New Orleans. Including that setback, the Jets have lost six of seven games, with the last three at home, all by five points or less. The Panthers (4-6 ATS) have gone the opposite direction by winning four of seven games since their 0-3 start. However, their home loss to the Dolphins 10 days ago was a killer. They are 0-2 SU and ATS vs. AFC foes in 2009 after going 4-0 ATS a year ago and 0-4 ATS in 07. New York is on a 4-13 ATS slide vs. losing teams, while Carolina is 12-4-2 ATS as a road underdog of three or less.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN FRANCISCO (-3, 41.5)

The old saying indicates that if it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck, it must be a duck. Well, Jacksonville (4-6 ATS) doesnt look like a playoff team, and is being outscored by opponents (19.9 to 23.5) while allowing 5.9 yards per play, yet if the postseason started today, the 6-4 Jaguars would be in. They begin a stretch of three straight games that could have a great bearing on their eventual fortunes. This game vs. San Francisco will be followed up by a three-game homestand, all vs. AFC playoff contenders. Consider today the Jags are 3-12 ATS when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. Head coach Jack Del Rios team is on a 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS slide vs. NFC foes. The 49ers (6-2-2 ATS) dropped to 4-6 by losing at Green Bay, yet boast superior numbers in this matchup. The Niners are 6-1-2 ATS vs. teams with winning record. These squads have met twice previously, never in San Francisco. Both games went UNDER, with the 49ers totaling 12 points and they are 8-0 UNDER after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous contest.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO (-13.5, 45)

San Diego has completed the journey back to the top of the AFC West and will try to protect that lead when it hosts divisional rival Kansas City. The Chargers (5-5 ATS) are 7-3 and face only two remaining opponents boasting a winning record at this point. This will be the second meeting of 09, with San Diego winning 37-7 win at Arrowhead in Week 7. That could be an important score since the Chiefs (3-7, 5-5 ATS) are on an 8-1 ATS run revenging a loss in which they scored 14 points or less. Kansas City has also played competitively on the road vs. AFC West rivals, covering four straight times against the number. Coach Norv Turners team is 0-2 ATS as a divisional host this season after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in its previous five. Underdogs have gone 7-2 ATS in previous meetings of the series in San Diego, with the SU winner 24-5-2 ATS since 1994.

Indianapolis (10-0, 6-3-1 ATS) at Houston (5-5, 5-4-1 ATS)

The Colts, one of only two undefeated teams remaining, make the trek to Reliant Stadium for an AFC South battle with the Texans.

Indianapolis snuck past Baltimore 17-15 Sunday as a one-point road chalk, continuing to show it can win close games, as the last four victories (1-2-1 ATS) have been by a combined 10 points. Despite scoring 20 points or less in three of those games, the Colts are still tied for fourth in the league at 26.9 ppg on the year, and they sit third in total offense (398.5 ypg). Plus, they boast the No. 1 scoring defense, yielding just 15.7 ppg.

Houston fell to Tennessee 20-17 on a last-minute field goal Sunday as a four-point home favorite, ending a 3-0-1 ATS uptick (3-1 ATS). It was the Texans’ second consecutive SU loss – by the same score, as they fell at Indy 20-17 three weeks ago, prior to their bye. QB Matt Schaub leads the third-best passing attack (284 ypg), though Indy is No. 1 (313.5 ypg), and Houston is averaging 23.2 ppg (13th) while allowing 20.8 ppg (16th).

As noted above, Indy took the first meeting this season with Houston 20-17, but the Texans covered as a 7½-point road pup. In fact, the Colts are 9-1 SU in the last 10 clashes, though they are just 4-6 ATS in that span, with Houston cashing in the last two meetings.

The Colts are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 division affairs and 5-10-1 ATS in their last 16 as a division chalk, but they sport positive ATS streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 5-0 on the highway, 4-0 as a road chalk and 4-1 after a spread cover. The Texans are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five at Reliant, though they are on ATS rolls of 5-0-1 against winning teams, 5-0 after a pointspread loss, 6-1 after a SU setback, 7-1 getting points and 7-1 as a home pup.

For Indianapolis, the under is on surges of 4-0 in the AFC South, 5-1 in November and 9-3 against AFC foes, and the under for Houston is on rolls of 6-1 overall, 5-0 in the AFC, 4-0 in November and 6-1 as an underdog. However, the over for the Texans is on runs of 12-3-1 after a non-cover, 12-4-1 after a SU loss, 19-7 against winning teams and 20-8 inside the division. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in eight of the last nine overall and four in a row in Houston.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Cleveland (1-9, 4-6 ATS) at Cincinnati (7-3, 4-6 ATS)

The Bengals, coming off a stunning upset loss, return from a two-game road swing to face the hapless instate rival Browns at Paul Brown Stadium.

Cincinnati got knocked off by underwhelming Oakland 20-17 last week as a hefty nine-point road chalk, ending a three-game SU and ATS run that included back-to-back victories over division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, last year’s AFC title game participants. The Bengals have ridden their defense to success this year, allowing just 16.7 ppg (third) and 310.5 ypg (10th). Offensively, RB Cedric Benson is a surprising fifth in the league with 859 rushing yards, despite sitting out last week’s game with an injury.

Cleveland let a huge 24-3 first-quarter lead evaporate entirely, losing a shootout at Detroit 38-37, giving up a 1-yard TD pass on an untimed down after the Browns’ committed a pass interference penalty on the Lions’ desperation Hail Mary attempt. The Browns have now lost five in a row (2-3 ATS), but they covered as a 3½-point pup at Detroit. Despite last week’s offensive outburst, the Browns are still second-to-last in total offense (236.8 ypg) and 30th in scoring (11.5 ppg), while allowing a league-worst 402 ypg and 26.3 ppg (28th).

Cincinnati squeaked by Cleveland 23-20 in overtime Oct. 4, falling short as a six-point road favorite, and the ATS winner has now alternated in the last six meetings in this AFC North rivalry. Cincy is 8-2 SU in the last 10 clashes (6-4 ATS), and the underdog is on a 5-0 ATS run. Also, the underdog has cashed in every Bengals game this season.

Cincinnati is in ATS ruts of 7-18-1 as a favorite (1-6 at home) and 5-12 against losing teams, but it is on pointspread upswings of 9-4 overall, 4-0 after a non-cover, 5-1 in the division, 5-2 at home and 18-8-1 in November. The Browns, meanwhile, are on a bundle of ATS dives, including 4-11-1 overall, 4-9-1 as an underdog, 2-5 in division play, 2-6-1 against winning teams and 1-7 as a pup of more than 10 points.

Cincinnati is on “under” runs of 11-4-1 at home, 6-2 giving points, 6-0 as a home chalk and 4-1 against the AFC. Similarly, the under for Cleveland is on tears of 21-10-1 overall, 4-1 in November, 6-2 against AFC opponents and 33-16-3 after a SU loss. Also, last month’s meeting between these teams cleared the 37½-point posted price, ending a 3-0 “under” run in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI and UNDER

Washington (3-7, 4-6 ATS) at Philadelphia (6-4 SU and ATS)

The Eagles, coming off a split of two road games, look to keep pace in the NFC playoff chase when they take on the Redskins in an NFC East clash at Lincoln Financial Field.

Philadelphia topped Chicago 24-20 last Sunday night as a 3½-point road favorite, ending a two-game SU and ATS hiccup. The Eagles have been bolstered by the NFL’s fourth-best turnover margin (plus-8) and a defense allowing just 305.1 ypg (eighth), and their offense is running up 26.6 ppg (tied for sixth) and 354.7 ypg (11th).

Washington nearly pulled off the upset at Dallas a week ago, giving up a TD with less than three minutes to play to lose 7-6 as an 11-point ‘dog in dropping to 1-5 SU (3-3 ATS) in its last six games. The Redskins have one of the league’s least productive offenses, averaging just 14.6 ppg (29th) and 309.6 ypg (25th). They’ve scored more than 17 points just once all year and twice in their last 15 games.

Philly dropped Washington 27-17 four weeks ago on a Monday night, narrowly covering as a nine-point road chalk to end a 3-1 SU and ATS run by the Redskins in this rivalry. The SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes between these two, and the road team and the underdog are on identical 4-1-1 ATS runs.

The Eagles are on several positive pointspread streaks, including 6-2 at home, 5-1 laying points at the Linc, 5-1 against losing teams, 4-1 in conference action and 4-1 in the NFC East. On the flip side, the Redskins are on ATS slides of 5-11-2 overall, 2-5-1 in November and 1-5-1 coming off a SU loss, though they are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a division road pup.

The over for Philadelphia is on rolls of 8-3 overall, 7-1-1 at home, 5-1-1 as a home favorite and 6-2 in the NFC, though the under is 44-21-5 in the Eagles’ last 70 starts as a chalk. For Washington, the under is on streaks of 18-7-1 overall, 6-2 in November, 11-4-1 against NFC foes, 8-3 in the division and 7-3-1 on the road. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 8-3-1 in the last dozen meetings overall, including 4-1 in the last five in Philly.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA

Miami (5-5 SU and ATS) at Buffalo (3-7, 5-5 ATS)

The Dolphins, winners of five of seven games after an 0-3 start, make the trip to upstate New York to take on the AFC East rival Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Miami held off Carolina 24-17 as a 3½-point road pup in the Thursday game last week for its second consecutive win and third in four games (3-1 ATS). The Dolphins lost star RB Ronnie Brown to injury two weeks ago, but veteran Ricky Williams stepped in with 22 carries for 119 yards and two TDs, and also caught a TD pass. That effort helped Miami remain among the league’s elite rushing teams, averaging 156 ypg (fourth). The Dolphins are also averaging a respectable 24.2 ppg (11th), but they’re allowing 24.4 ppg (27th).

Buffalo fell short at Jacksonville 18-15, but easily covered as a nine-point ‘dog in its first game under interim coach Jerry Fewell, who took over for the fired Dick Jauron. Buffalo has scored 17 points or less in seven of its last eight games, including four games of 10 points or less, and the Bills are averaging 15.5 ppg on the year (28th).

Miami has won and covered the last three meetings in this rivalry, including a 38-10 home beatdown Oct. 4 as a one-point favorite. Prior to that, Buffalo was on a 6-0-1 ATS tear (6-1 SU). The SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes, the favorite and the home team are on 4-1-1 ATS runs, and the Bills have covered in four of the last five contests at Ralph Wilson.

The Dolphins are on ATS surges of 5-2 overall, 6-0 in the AFC East, 6-0 in road division games, 9-3 on the highway and 5-2 as a road chalk. But they are also just 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games laying points, 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 against losing teams and 13-28-1 in their last 42 coming off a spread-cover. The Bills are on ATS declines of 1-8 at home, 0-5 as a home ‘dog, 2-8-1 in November and 3-7 after a pointspread win.

Miami is on a 5-2 “over” streak, but also carries “under” runs of 5-1 on the road, 6-1 as a road chalk, 10-3 in November and 16-5 after a SU win. Buffalo is on “under” surges of 5-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-1 as a pup and 4-1 against the AFC, and in the last seven meetings in this rivalry, the total has stayed low five times.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Seattle (3-7 SU and ATS) at St. Louis (1-9, 5-5 ATS)

Two teams on the fast track to the offseason square off when the Rams play host to the Seahawks at the Edward Jones Dome.

St. Louis lost to Arizona 21-13 Sunday, but covered as a 9½-point home underdog to cash for the third straight game. The Rams are getting great production out of RB Steven Jackson, who is second in the league with 1,031 rushing yards (103.1 ypg), including 530 yards over the last four games. But that’s about all St. Louis is getting, as it stands 26th in total offense (304.9 ypg) and 31st in scoring (11.3 ppg), while yielding 385.1 ypg (29th) and 27 ppg (also 29th).

Seattle got thumped at Minnesota 35-9 last week as a healthy 10½-point pup, losing SU and ATS for the second straight week and falling to 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five starts. The Seahawks, who are 0-5 SU and ATS on the road this year, have scored more than 20 points just twice all year and average 19.6 ppg (22nd) and 325 ypg (21st). Defensively, Seattle is giving up 23.3 ppg (21st) and 347.3 ypg (20th).

Seattle opened the season with a 28-0 blanking of St. Louis as a seven-point home chalk and has now won nine in a row in this rivalry (7-2 ATS), including the last five SU and ATS, all from the favorite’s role. The SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes.

The Rams are on a 1-19 SU nosedive (9-11 ATS), and they are on ATS purges of 8-18 at home, 5-12 as a home ‘dog and 2-9 in the NFC West. However, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall (all as a pup) and sport additional positive ATS streaks of 4-0 against losing teams and 4-0 in November.

The Seahawks are on a pair of 4-1 ATS upticks, as a favorite and against losing teams, and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a division chalk, but they shoulder negative pointspread runs of 1-4 overall, 0-6 on the highway, 3-8 as a road chalk and 1-4 against NFC West rivals.

The over is 25-10-1 in Seattle’s last 36 games versus losing teams, and the over has hit in four of St. Louis’ last five home games (all as a pup). However, the under is 7-3 in the Seahawks’ last 10 November outings, 5-0-1 in the Rams’ last six NFC West contests and 4-1 in St. Louis’ last five November games, and in this rivalry, the under is on a modest 3-1-1 run.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Tampa Bay (1-9, 3-7 ATS) at Atlanta (5-5, 7-3 ATS)

The Falcons, who reached the playoffs last year but are quickly sliding out of this year’s postseason picture, return from a fruitless two-game road trip to face the dismal Buccaneers at the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta outscored the Giants 24-14 in the second half Sunday to force overtime but never saw the ball in the extra session, losing 34-31 for its fourth loss in the last five games (3-2 ATS), though the Falcons covered as a seven-point road pup. Atlanta is a middling 14th in total offense this year (343.7 ypg), but it has converted those yards into 25.2 ppg, good for ninth in the league.

Tampa Bay got pounded by unbeaten New Orleans 38-7 as a hefty 10½-point home ‘dog last week, ending a modest two-game ATS uptick (1-1 SU). The Bucs have lost 12 of their last 14 games (4-9 ATS), and this year they rate 29th in total offense (270.5 ypg) and 27th in scoring offense (16.4 ppg), while giving up 378.3 ypg (27th) and 29.4 ppg, the second-worst scoring defense in the NFL.

Tampa has cashed in the last four clashes (3-1 ATS) between these NFC South rivals, with Atlanta winning 13-10 in overtime and the Bucs covering as a 5½-point road pup last December in the most recent meeting. Tampa Bay is 7-2 ATS on its last nine trips to the Georgia Dome, and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests.

The Falcons are on a handful of positive pointspread rolls, including 5-2 overall, 9-3 at home (4-0 last four), 11-1 after a SU loss, 5-1 in November, 4-1 laying points and 6-2 within the NFC. The Bucs have covered in seven of their last 10 November games, but the ATS streaks head south from there, including 3-9 overall, 2-9 after a SU loss, 1-4 in division play and 3-7 as a pup.

Atlanta is on “over” tears of 5-0 overall, 4-0 in November, 4-0 against losing teams, 6-1 in the NFC South, 13-3 after a SU loss and 11-5 at the Georgia Dome. The total has also gone high in 12 of Tampa’s last 14 roadies, though the under is 5-2 in the Bucs’ last seven division games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER

Carolina (4-6 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Jets (4-6 SU and ATS)

The Jets, plunging rapidly after their 3-0 SU and ATS start, aim to get back on track with a non-conference clash against the Panthers at the Meadowlands.

New York got dumped by New England 31-14 last Sunday for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback, and the Jets’ lone win in their last seven games came against the dreadful Raiders. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez’s precipitous slide continued with four INTs against the Patriots, and he now has 16 INTs on the year, second-worst behind Chicago’s Jay Cutler (18). Sanchez has thrown three or more picks three times this year, negating the fact that New York sports the league’s second-best running attack (163.5 ypg).

Carolina, playing the Thursday game last week, fell short to Miami 24-17 as a 3½-point home chalk, which halted a three-game ATS run (2-1 SU). The Panthers have the NFL’s third-best rushing attack, at 159.1 ypg, but the passing game is averaging just 177.3 ypg (24th), and Carolina is putting up only 19.3 ppg (23rd). Like the Jets, the Panthers have their issues with turnovers, sitting at a minus-8 margin for the year (30th).

These teams have met just twice this decade, with Carolina covering in both and going 1-1 SU. Most recently, the Panthers rolled 30-3 as an 8½-point home chalk in November 2005. There have been just four meetings overall between these franchises, and the home team has cashed in all four. Also, the SU winner has covered in New York’s last 12 games.

The Jets are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 1-6 overall, 1-8 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 0-4 in November, 2-6 at home, 1-6 as a home chalk and 2-6 against losing teams. The Panthers, meanwhile, are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 as a road pup and 3-6 ATS in their last nine as a non-division road ‘dog, but they also sport positive spread-covering streaks of 10-4 after a SU loss, 12-4-2 as a road pup of three points or less and 4-1 in November.

The over for New York is on surges of 3-0-1 overall, 6-0-2 in November, 7-3 at home, 5-1 with the Jets favored and 4-1 against losing teams. Likewise, the over for Carolina is on runs of 7-2 on the highway, 7-2 after an ATS setback, 6-2 after a SU loss and 7-2 as an underdog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Jacksonville (6-4, 4-6 ATS) at San Francisco (4-6, 6-2-2 ATS)

The Jaguars, who have surged into the AFC playoff picture, make the long cross-country trip to Candlestick Park for a non-conference contest with the 49ers.

Jacksonville ran its winning streak to three in a row with last week’s 18-15 win over Buffalo, falling well short of covering as a healthy nine-point home favorite. The Jags, behind the league’s seventh-best rushing attack (136.3 ypg), stand 12th in total offense (354 ypg), but they’ve only converted those yards into an average of 19.9 ppg (21st), while the defense is giving up 356.1 ypg (23rd) and 23.5 ppg (23rd).

San Francisco has struggled since its 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS start, losing five of its last six. Last week, the 49ers went to Green Bay and stumbled 30-24, though they got the push as a six-point pup. Offensively, the Niners are mustering just 278.5 ypg (27th) along with a mediocre 20.8 ppg (19th), and the defense is giving up 350.8 ypg (22nd) and 21 ppg (17th).

These teams have met four times, with Jacksonville going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, including a 10-9 victory as a 16-point chalk in December 2005.

Despite their current three-game win streak, the Jaguars are on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 0-5 against losing teams, 1-5 in November, 3-9 after a SU win, 3-7 following a non-cover and 1-5 against the NFC. Conversely, the 49ers are on pointspread sprees of 9-3-3 overall, 4-0-2 after an ATS loss, 4-1-1 after a SU defeat, 6-1-2 against winning teams, 6-2-1 in November and 5-2 at Candlestick.

The under for Jacksonville is on upticks of 6-2 as a visitor, 9-4 when an underdog and 7-2 as a road pup, and the under is 6-2 for San Francisco in its last eight following a SU loss. However, the over is 12-5 in the Niners’ last 17 as a home favorite and 7-1 with San Francisco giving three points or less at the ‘Stick.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO

Kansas City (3-7, 5-5 ATS) at San Diego (7-3, 5-5 ATS)

The streaking Chargers go for their sixth consecutive victory when they meet the Chiefs in an AFC West battle at Qualcomm Stadium.

San Diego white-washed Denver last week 32-3 as a 6½-point road chalk, winning its fifth straight while covering for the fourth time in that stretch. The Chargers are a middling 16th in the league in total yards (336.2 ypg), but they’re racking up 26.9 ppg, tied for fifth in the league. San Diego has scored at least 21 points in every game this year, cracking30 points three times. The offense is getting it done despite ranking just 29th in rushing (87.9 ypg).

Kansas City comes in off a huge upset of defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh, winning 27-24 in overtime as an overwhelming 10½-point home underdog. It was the Chiefs’ second consecutive SU win and third straight ATS victory. That said, K.C. still rates just 30th in total offense (268.1 ypg) and 26th in scoring (16.9 ppg), with Sunday’s effort marking its highest scoring output of the season after netting 21 points or less in eight of its first nine games.

San Diego has won four in row in this longtime rivalry, though it has split the cash in those contests, most recently rumbling 37-7 on the road last month as a 5½-point favorite. The underdog is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 clashes, and the road team is on a 4-1 ATS run.

The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven laying more than 10 points, but along with their current 4-1 ATS streak, they are 23-10-4 ATS in their last 37 AFC West outings. The Chiefs, despite their sub-par SU mark, are on ATS rolls of 5-1 overall (all as a ‘dog), 10-4 as a pup against AFC West rivals, 9-1 catching more than 10 points, 8-1 as a road pup of that same price and 4-0 in November.

The over is 7-3-2 in San Diego’s last dozen division affairs and 4-1-1 in Kansas City’s last six versus winning teams. However, the under for the Chargers is on runs of 3-1-1 overall and 7-1 in November, and the under is 21-10-1 in the Chiefs’ last 32 as a road pup and 5-1-1 in K.C.’s last seven AFC West games. Finally, the total has stayed low in four of the last five Qualcomm meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO

Chicago (4-6 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (9-1, 6-3-1 ATS)

The Vikings, with the second-best record in the NFC, look to move closer to the North Division crown in a meeting with the rival Bears at the Metrodome.

Minnesota ripped Seattle 35-9 Sunday as a heavy 10½-point home chalk for its third win in a row (2-0-1 ATS). The Vikings are No. 2 in the league in scoring, piling up 30.6 ppg, which trails only the unbeaten Saints (36.9 ppg), and they’ve done it with a diverse offense that sits eighth in total yards (375.3 ypg), ninth in passing (249.1 ypg) and 10th in rushing (126.2 ypg). Minnesota is allowing 19.3 ppg (10th), and its high-pressure defense has a league-leading 36 sacks.

Chicago’s season is quickly circling the drain, as it has dropped three in a row SU and ATS, including a 24-20 home loss to Philadelphia last Sunday night as a 3½-point pup. QB Jay Cutler has thrown 15 TD passes but he also has 18 INTs, tied for the most in the league, but only because Detroit rookie Matthew Stafford hurled four INTs on Thanksgiving Day. Part of Cutler’s issue is a lackluster Bears running game averaging just 89.3 ypg (28th).

These rivals split last year’s two meetings, with Chicago winning a shootout 48-41 at home giving three points, and Minnesota rolling 34-14 as a five-point home favorite. In fact, the host is 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes, and the Vikes are on a 5-2 ATS run against the Bears at the dome.

The Vikings are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games and 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight when laying more than 10 at home, but they are still on positive pointspread streaks of 4-0-1 in November, 4-0-1 against the NFC, 3-0-1 against losing teams and 3-0-1 in the division. The Bears have cashed in their last four as a pup of more than 10, but they are otherwise on ATS skids of 1-5 overall, 1-6 on the road, 1-8 as a ‘dog, 0-6-1 as a road pup and 0-4 against winning teams.

In this rivalry, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings overall (5-1-1) and 3-1-1 in the last five at the Metrodome. Furthermore, the over is 10-4-1 in Minnesota’s last 15 November starts. But the under for the Vikes is on runs of 5-0 as a chalk of more than 10 points and 4-1 against losing teams, and Chicago is on “under” stretches of 10-4 on the road, 37-17-2 with the Bears a road ‘dog and 7-1 after a SU loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA

Arizona (7-3, 6-4 ATS) at Tennessee (4-6, 5-5 ATS)

The defending NFC champion Cardinals look to remain perfect on the road this year when they head east for a battle with the resurgent Titans at LP Field.

Arizona topped Seattle 21-13 Sunday as a 9½-point home chalk for its third consecutive victory and sixth win in the last seven games (5-2 ATS). The Cards, who are 5-0 on the road (4-1 ATS) in 2009, have scored 21 points or more in all seven of those contests and are averaging 25 ppg (10th), mostly due to the veteran arm of QB Kurt Warner, who has the Cards ranked fourth in the league in passing offense (270 ypg). Arizona is also allowing just 19.7 ppg (12th).

Warner, who has 20 TDs against 11 INTs, only played into the second quarter against the Seahawks, leaving after suffering a head injury. However, he’s on track to start this week.

After an 0-6 SU start to the season (1-5 ATS), Tennessee has peeled off four straight wins and covers, edging Houston 20-17 Monday night as a four-point road pup. The Titans haven’t lost since pulling QB Kerry Collins in favor of Vince Young, but the difference-maker is RB Chris Johnson, who had 151 rushing yards Monday and has piled up 646 yards during the winning streak. Johnson now leads the league with 1,242 rushing yards (6.2 yards per carry, 8 TDs).

These non-conference rivals haven’t met since October 2005, when Arizona posted a 20-10 home win laying 5½ points in the only clash this decade.

The Cardinals carry positive ATS trends into Nashville of 11-4 overall, 5-1 on the road, 7-0 as an underdog, 5-0 as a road pup and 7-3 after a SU win. The Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last six against winning teams and 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, but along with their current 4-0 SU and ATS run, they are on pointspread rolls of 8-4 at home, 5-0 in November, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 19-7 against NFC opposition.

Arizona is on “over” tears of35-17 overall, 5-1 in November, 40-19 on the road, 38-13 as a road pup, 21-8 after a SU win and 37-15 against losing teams. The over is also on a 7-3 surge with the Titans as a home favorite, but the under for Jeff Fisher’s troops is on stretches of 19-9-1 after a SU win, 12-5-1 against winning teams and 7-1 when laying up to three points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE

Pittsburgh (6-4, 3-7 ATS) at Baltimore (5-5, 6-4 ATS)

The Steelers and Ravens, last year’s AFC title game participants, both find themselves in need of a win when they face off at M&T Bank Stadium in a prime-time showdown of bitter AFC North rivals.

Pittsburgh went to Kansas City last week as a 10½-point road favorite and left with a stunning 27-24 overtime defeat, losing SU and ATS for the second straight week after a 5-0 SU roll (3-2 ATS). Not only did the defending champs lose the game, but they lost QB Ben Roethlisberger to a concussion in overtime, and then second-string QB Charlie Batch went down with a broken wrist. Batch is out for the season, and Roethlisberger will not play today, leaving the QB chores in the hands of third-stringer Dennis Dixon.

The Steelers have one of the NFL’s top offenses, averaging 379.8 ypg (sixth), and the defense is yielding a league-best 277.9 ypg and just 18.4 ppg (eighth). However, the problem has been in the turnover department, where Pittsburgh has a minus-5 margin (27th).

Baltimore fell just short to undefeated Indianapolis last week, losing 17-15 as a one-point home pup, and the Ravens have now alternated SU wins over their past five games (3-2 ATS). Baltimore is averaging 23.7 ppg (12th), but the past three weeks, it has generated a total of 38 points (12.7 ppg). Defensively, the Ravens are allowing 310 ypg (ninth) and 17.1 ppg (fifth).

This is the first meeting between these two since last year’s AFC Championship Game, won by Pittsburgh 23-14 as a six-point home chalk. The Steelers also swept the regular-season series last year (1-1 ATS) and are now 4-1 in the last five meetings (3-2 ATS). Conversely, Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups at M&T. Also, the SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

The Steelers are on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 3-8 overall, 1-6 on the highway and 2-5 against AFC opponents. Conversely, despite their middling SU season, the Ravens are on ATS rolls of 17-7 overall, 6-1 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a non-cover, 10-4 at home and 13-6 in conference action.

Pittsburgh is on “over” runs of 17-7 in the AFC, 4-1 after an ATS setback, 7-3 following a SU loss and 5-2 on the road, and in this rivalry, the total has hurdled the posted price in five of the last six clashes. However, the under for Baltimore is on surges of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-0 in AFC play, 4-0 inside the division and 4-1 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE

Week 12 NFL games

Colts (10-0) @ Texans (5-5)-- Tough, short week for Texans after 20-17 loss to Titans Monday night; they also lost 20-17 at Indy three weeks ago; Brown missed tying FG on last play in both games. Schaub was 32-43/301 passing at Indy; Texans converted 37 of last 71 third down plays. Colts have six wins by four or less points; their last four wins are by total of 10 points. they're 3-0 as road favorite, with road wins by 4-21-22-36-2 pts. Underdogs are 5-2 vs the spread in AFC South games. Houston held Colts to 5.8 ypp in first meeting, lowest figure for Indy this year. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Houston games. Houston lost three of its five home games.

Browns (1-9) @ Bengals (7-3)-- Cincy needed OT to win 23-20 in Week 5 on Lake Erie, in game where Browns had 19-yard edge in field position, and held Bengals to 4.8 ypp, their lowest of season. Cincy scored 18 or less points in five of last six games; they're 3-2 at home (0-2 as home favorite) winning its home games by 3-35-10 points. Browns scored 37 points last week, losing at Detroit after leading 24-3; they had scored total of 29 points in previous five games. Lions gained 473 yards on Cleveland, 75 more than in any other game they've played. Browns covered three of their last four road games. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in AFC North games.

Bears (4-6) @ Vikings (9-1)-- Chicago lost five of six since their bye (only win vs Browns), after 3-1 start; they're 1-4 on road, losing by 6-7-35-4 pts, with only win at Seattle when Hasselbeck didn't play. Bears scored three TDs on 30 drives in last three road games, allowing average of 149.7 rushing yards/ game in last three ga,es. Vikings won their last three games by 9-17-26 points, scoring 13 TDs on 34 drives; they're 2-2-1 as home favorite, winning by 3-7-2-17-26 points. Vikings are 4th in NFL in red zone offense (5.26 ppp). Three of last four Minnesota games stayed under total. Favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in NFC North games.

Redskins (3-7) @ Eagles (6-4)-- Philly (-7) won 27-17 at Washington back in Week 7, creating four Redskin turnovers, outrushing Washington 122-62, but Campbell was 29-43/246 passing for Skins. Washington lost five of its last six games, but played hearts out in 7-6 loss at Dallas last week, outgaining Pokes 324-305, holding Romo to 5.4 ypp. Philly is 6-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-4 when they don't; only two of last nine Redskin foes topped 24. Over is 7-3 in Philly games, 3-1 in Redskins' last four games. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in NFC East games. Eagles are 5-2 against the spread as a favorite this season, with home wins by 20-19-23 points.

Dolphins (5-5) @ Bills (3-7)-- Resurgent Miami (5-2 in last seven games) had three extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday last week; Miami won first meeting 38-10 in Week 4 (+2), their first win of year, getting a defensive TD and outrushing Buffalo 250-46. Fourth road game in five weeks for Miami squad that is 2-3 on road. Fish scored average of 25.6 ppg in last seven games; they still had 154 rushing yards last week, playing without star RB Brown for first time. Buffalo lost last three games by 21-24-3 points; last week, in first game for interim coach Fewell, they threw more to Owens and had success. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in AFC East games, 3-0 at home.

Cardinals (7-3) @ Titans (4-6)-- Tennessee is first-ever NFL team to be 4-6 after starting season 0-6; Arizona is 5-0 on road this year, so something has to give here. Warner didn't play in second half last week after being hit in head, is expected to play here. Redbirds scored 12 TDs on 35 drives in its three-game win streak, even with scoreless second half with Leinart at QB last Sunday. Titans scored average of 31.3 ppg in 4-0 streak since bye, coming after 59-0 tank job in snow at Foxboro. NFC West road dogs are 9-3 vs spread outside its division. AFC South home favorites are 3-7. Six of last eight Tennessee games, last three Arizona games went over the total.

Seahawks (3-7) @ Rams (1-9)-- Seattle is 0-5 on road, with closest loss 31-20 at Dallas four weeks ago; for them to be road favorite is surprising, seeing how Rams' last four home games were Vikings-Colts-Saints-Cardinals, and they've had chance to tie game on last drive last two weeks. Seattle (-8) won 28-0 on Opening Day, outgaining Rams 446-247, but first TD scored on muffed punt, and Rams had blocked FG for TD called back by penalty. Jackson's back has been balky this week, but he's expected to play. Bollet gets not at QB after Bulger broke his leg; thats an upgrade. Home teams are 5-2 vs spread in NFC West games this season. Three of last four Seattle games went over total.

Buccaneers (1-9) @ Falcons (5-5)-- Atlanta won, covered all four home games, winning by 12-8-7-14 points; home side won nine of their ten games in 2009, with last five games going over total. Bucs are 1-4 at home, with losses by 13-24-7-31 points (1-4 as home dog). Atlanta is 5-0 when it allows 20 points or less; they gave up 26-37-35-28-34 in its losses. Tampa averages 15.4 ppg on road (2-3 as road dog). Falcons are 4th in NFL in ppp on drives starting 80+ yards from goal line (58 points/29 drives). Bucs surprisingly lead NFL in ppp in red zone (5.39-- 97 points/18 drives). Road teams are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South games. Falcons lost four of last five games (all losses on road).

Panthers (4-6) @ Jets (4-6)-- Stumbling Jets lost six of last seven games, with rookie QB Sanchez struggling (eight turnovers in two games since bye); they've lost last three home games, giving up 28.3 ppg in last three games overall, and now team is giving Sanchez signals on when it is wise to take chances; thats a red flag. Carolina has been running ball well, averaging 204.8 rushing yards in last four games, Jets are allowing 122+ rushing yards over last seven games. AFC teams are 24-19 vs NFC clubs this season; Panthers are 2-3 on road (2-2 as road dog) with road losses by 8-14-10 points. Over is 4-1-1 in Jets' last six games. Panthers covered their last three road games.

Jaguars (6-4) @ 49ers (4-6)-- 49ers lost five of last six games, but are 3-2 as a favorite, winning home games by 13-35-4 points (3-2 SU). Jax'ville won last three games by combined total of 8 points; their last three losses are all by 14+ points. Jags are 3-2 as dog on road; six of their last nine games went over total. Underdog is 4-1-1 vs spread in Niners' last six games. Del Rio has been trying to get Jags to run ball better; in their last five games, they ran ball for average of 159.4 rushing yards/game. In their four wins, 49ers allowed 16-10-0-6 pts; they're 0-6 allowing more than 16 points. NFC West home favorites are 4-4 vs spread outside their division; AFC South road dogs are 5-4.

Chiefs (3-7) @ Chargers (6-4)-- San Diego (-5.5) crushed Chiefs 37-7 in first meeting, outgaining KC 403-203, averaging 8.9 yards/pass; Chargers are 3-2 at home, 2-3 as home favorites, winning at Qualcomm by 10-8-8 points. Chiefs won last two games, covered last three; they're 3-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-20-3 points, with wins at Washington, Oakland. Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Chief games, 1-3 in last four Charger games. Visitor is 7-1 vs spread in AFC West games this season. Chief WR Chambers faces team that released him; he's helped Bolts average 5.7/5.7/6.1 ypp in three games he's played, the highest average for them since the first two weeks of the season.

Steelers (6-4) @ Ravens (5-5)-- Raven offense scored only two TDs on their last 30 drives in last three games, scoring 7-16-15 points, losing two of three games. Steelers beat Baltimore in playoffs LY; this is their first meeting since then. Roethlisberger got kneed in head late in loss at Arrowhead last week; he is expected to play (backup Batch is out). Pittsburgh has horrible streak where they allowed four kick return TDs in last five games, allowed defensive TDs in three other games. Last four Baltimore games, three of Steelers' last four games stayed under total. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in AFC North games. Both of these teams are chasing Bengals in AFC North; loser is in deep trouble.

Monday's Game

Patriots (7-3) @ Saints (10-0)-- New England won four of last five games, the only loss 35-34 at unbeaten Colts; Pats have yet to win true road game, with losses at Jets (16-9), Broncos (20-17), Colts (35-34)- they beat Bucs over in England, a neutral site. Saints failed to cover last four games after covering the first six; they're 3-2 as home favorite, winning in Superdome by 18-14-21-8- 10 points. Saints ran ball for 203-183 yards in last two games; their offense is well-balanced. NFC South home favorites are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional tilts; AFC East underdogs are 5-8 against spread, 5-4 on road. Three of Pats' four games away from home stayed under the total.

Tips and Trends

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Colts (-3.5, O/U 47.5): The Colts are undefeated this year, and a big reason why is their road play. They are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS this year away from home. Indy needs to be careful though, as they've scored 20 PTS or fewer in 3 of their past 4 games. That's led to the Colts losing 3 of their last 4 games ATS. QB Peyton Manning directs the NFL's best passing offense, averaging over 310 YPG through the air. The Colts also are giving up an NFL low of 15.7 PPG. Indy has held 7 of their past 8 opponents under 20 PTS.

Colts are 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a road favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 vs. AFC South.

Key Injuries - DB Antoine Bethea (foot) is questionable.
DB Kelvin Hayden (leg) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23

Texans: Houston is going to have to play better at home to make the playoffs. Houston is 2-3 SU, with only 1 win ATS at home. QB Matt Schaub has thrown for nearly 3,000 YDS, including 19 TDs. Houston has one of the 3 worst rushing offenses in the NFL, so Schaub will continue to be active. Rookie LB Brian Cushing leads both the Texans and all NFL rookies with 88 tackles. Cushing will likely be active in the secondary, as the Colts move the ball through the air early and often.

Texans are 7-1 ATS last 8 games as a home underdog.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - CB Antwaun Molden (quad) is questionable.
LB DeMeco Ryans (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Bears: Chicago has lost 5 of their past 6 games SU. The acquisition of Jay Cutler isn't working out the way the Bears had imagined. The Bears are 1-4 both SU and ATS on the road this year. QB Jay Cutler has 15 of his 18 INTs on the road this season. Cutler needs to improve his decision making in order for the Bears to have a chance to win on the road. The Bears are giving up more than 155 rushing YPG. The Bears need to avoid turnovers today, and must limit Adrian Peterson from breaking the big play. The Bears have allowed 3 QB's this season to have QB ratings greater than 100 of late. Brett Favre has a QB rating of 112 for this entire season.

Bears are 0-6-1 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - G Roberto Garza (ankle) is questionable.
S Kevin Payne (back) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 13

Vikings (-11, O/U 47): QB Brett Favre is playing like the NFL MVP. Favre has led his team to a perfect 5-0 record at home, and 9-1 SU overall for the season. Minnesota has scored at least 27 PTS in every home game this season. RB Adrian Peterson has 999 YDS rushing, averaging nearly 5 YPC. Defensively, Minnesota has the 3rd best rush defense in the NFL, allowing less than 86 rushing YPG. The Vikings are giving up only 10 PPG in games where they were favored by double digits.

Vikings are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 vs. NFC.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or more.

Key Injuries - CB Antoine Winfield (toe) is questionable.
DT Frederick Evans (flu) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (UNDER - Total of the Day)