NFL Football News and Notes Thursday 12/10

PITTSBURGH (6 - 6) at CLEVELAND (1 - 11)

Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
PITTSBURGH is 80-51 ATS (+23.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Cleveland
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND
PITTSBURGH: 80-51 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
CLEVELAND: 6-1 Under last 4wks of the regular season

NFL Betting Guide
By SportsPic

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh off a 27-24 loss to the Raiders the 4th straight defeat are in danger of missing the playoff after winning the Super Bowl for the second time in four years. Steelers 6-6 on the season, 4-8 at the betting window are now 14-14 (11-16-1 ATS) post Super Bowl victory including 5-9 (4-9-1 ATS) on the highway. Thursday's tilt at Browns Stadium in Cleveland certainly has the markings of a gift, however Steel Town Boys are in dangerous betting territory. Steelers are 5-16 ATS this millennium laying double digits including 0-3 ATS on the road and are 1-3 ATS laying heavy lumber knocking heads with Browns. Keep in mind, Super Bowl Winners the following season haven't been the greatest bets on the road going 39-37-2 ATS including 8-12 ATS laying a touchdown or more. Historical trends should not be your only handicapping tool however the numbers suggest a closer look is in order when considering last years Super Bowl Champs.

Weather Alert

Thursday forecast for Cleveland.

Day: Snow Showers. High 27F. Winds W at 28 mph

Night: Snow Showers. Low 19F. Winds W at 28 mph

great teaser play-browns +17 and with that bad weather push up the under to 40/41.

great teaser play-browns +17 and with that bad weather push up the under to 40/41.

Both teams combined might go under 17. 😀

What Bettors Need To Know: Steelers at Browns
By SCOTT COOLEY

During the last decade, four Super Bowl champions have failed to reach the playoffs the following season. The Pittsburgh Steelers are in jeopardy of having the dubious distinction of doing it twice.

With a 6-6 record, the Steelers find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture and in a must-win situation on Thursday night against the one-win Cleveland Browns.

Inclement weather

The Cleveland forecast calls for a kickoff temperature of 20 degrees with a 60 percent chance of precipitation that includes snow showers. Howling winds from 25-30 mph throughout the game will complicate passing patterns and create a wind chill temperature of 1 degree.

Line dance

The total in the game has been directly affected by the weather report. An opener of 37.5 has been bet down four points to a low of 33.5 at some markets.

Pittsburgh opened as 9.5-point favorites and backers have pushed the spread up to a current number of 10.

Injury report

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin said veteran receiver Hines Ward will be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury. Ward leads the Steelers in receptions (72) and touchdowns (6).

"People on this team know that I'm a competitor," Ward said. "I'll try to do all I can to play."

Steelers starting cornerback William Gay is expected to miss the game after sustaining a concussion last Sunday.

For the Browns, defensive end C.J. Mosely broke his ankle last week and will miss the remainder of the season.

Curtain malfunction

The Steelers have dropped four games in a row, marking only the sixth time since 1970 Pittsburgh has experienced a losing streak of at least four games. The Steelers failed to reach the playoffs in any of those previous six seasons.

The Steel Curtain just isn’t the same stalwart of a defense without all-world safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fourth straight game. With Polamalu in the lineup this season, Pittsburgh went 4-1 and surrendered an average of 13.8 points per game, but without him the team is 2-5 and the defense has given up an average of 23.1 points per outing.

After Mike Tomlin vowed to “unleash hell” against the Raiders, and did not, the head coach confirmed that lineup changes would occur this week.

Rookie Joe Burnett is expected to start at left cornerback and defensive back Keenan Lewis will see expanded playing time. Tomlin also said he wants to get Steelers’ first round draft pick Ziggy Hood more involved.

"We can't stay status quo in terms of how we're approaching this thing and expect the pattern of behavior or outcome to change," said Tomlin. "I think our guys are of the same mindset, so I don't expect any surprise or discontent in regards to this approach."

Pittsburgh’s defense has given up 99 points in the fourth quarter this season and blown fourth-quarter leads in the last three games.

The Mighty Quinn

While Pittsburgh comes into this game in a must-win situation, the Browns could be in a must-lose scenario.

That tantalizing No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft is on the line with Cleveland tied at the bottom of the league standings with the Rams and Buccaneers as the three 1-11 teams. Just imagine… Ndamukong Suh paired alongside Shaun Rogers could create a ferocious defensive line.

But the Browns have looked like anything but a team that is willing to waive the white flag down the stretch. Cleveland has lost by an average 5.7 points over its last three games and scored a total of 67 points during that stretch after registering only 58 during its previous eight games.

Some of that offensive success can be attributed to the recent steady, not outstanding, play of quarterback Brady Quinn. Quinn has thrown for seven touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three games while completing 54.4 percent of his passes.

“I've been happy with [Quinn’s] overall decision making,” said head coach Eric Mangini. “I think his awareness of what the defense is giving us (has been good) and if it's not there, not trying to make something happen but going to the check-down or going to the underneath receiver.”

Cleveland ranks 29th in rushing defense (154.2 ypg) and last in total defense (400.3 ypg).

Trendy solutions

Pittsburgh has defeated the Browns in 13 straight games, including a 27-14 win in Week 6. During that 13-game span, the Steelers have gone 9-3-1 ATS.

Cleveland is 3-0 ATS in its last three games and 3-1 ATS during the last four meetings of this series.

The Steelers have played to the over in seven of their last 10 games while the over is 6-2-1 during the last nine of this series.

Pittsburgh (6-6, 4-8 ATS) at Cleveland (1-11, 6-6 ATS)

The freefalling Steelers, looking nothing like the defending Super Bowl champions, look to halt a four-game losing skid and get back in the playoff hunt when they make the quick trip to Cleveland on a short week to face the division rival Browns.

Pittsburgh is coming off Sunday’s shocking 27-24 loss to Oakland as an overwhelming 14½-point home favorite, giving up the game-winning TD pass with nine seconds remaining. The Steelers, who are now four spots out of even earning a wild-card playoff bid, allowed the pedestrian Raiders offense to roll up 396 total yards and score 21 points in the final 8½ minutes. Mike Tomlin’s troops have lost four in a row (1-3 ATS) by a total of 15 points, the last three defeats being three-point setbacks, and they had a fourth-quarter lead in all four games.

Cleveland rallied from a 27-7 fourth-quarter deficit to San Diego on Sunday but eventually fell short 30-23, though it managed to cover as a heavy 13½-point home underdog for its third straight ATS win. It was just the second time all season that the Browns scored more than 20 points, and they have now lost seven in a row (4-3 ATS).

Although Pittsburgh’s vaunted defense has surrendered 27, 20 and 27 points the last three weeks to sub-par offenses (Kansas City, Baltimore and Oakland), the Steelers are still allowing just 297.3 total ypg, which still ranks fifth in the NFL. Pittsburgh is also still in the top half of the league in offense, averaging 22.7 ppg (14th), 374.8 total yards per game (7th) and 258 passing ypg (10th).

Cleveland ranks dead last in total offense (242.4 ypg) and 30th in scoring (12.1 ppg), and the Browns are also last in total defense, allowing a whopping 400.2 ypg, and 27th in scoring defense (25.8 ppg).

Pittsburgh has won the last dozen meetings in this rivalry (8-3-1 ATS), including a 27-14 home victory Oct. 18, though the Browns narrowly cashed as a 14-point pup. The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS on their last six trips to Cleveland, and Pittsburgh has been the favorite in the last 11 contests, going 7-3-1 ATS.

Along with their current 1-3 ATS purge, the Steelers are on pointspread skids of 4-9 overall, 2-6 on the road, 0-5 against losing teams, 3-9 as a favorite and 1-6 as a road chalk. The lone bright spot: a 4-1 ATS mark in their last five Thursday games.

The Browns have dropped 17 of their last 18 regular-season games (6-11-1 ATS) and are on pointspread slides of 2-7-1 at home, 1-4 in December and 3-7 when catching double digits, but they still sport positive ATS runs of 5-1 against AFC foes, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 8-2-1 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points.

The over for Pittsburgh is on a bundle of tears, including 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 4-0 against losing teams, 5-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a non-cover and 19-7 against AFC foes. The over is also 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in this rivalry. However, for Cleveland, the under is on streaks of 9-2-1 in December, 5-2 in the AFC North and 7-3 in AFC action.

Finally, the total has stayed low in all six Thursday contests this season.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
By Brian Edwards

The defending Super Bowl champs are in trouble. After last week’s galling 27-24 home loss to Oakland as a 14 1/2-point favorite, Pittsburgh (6-6 straight up, 4-8 against the spread) goes to the Dawg Pound tonight looking to end a four-game losing streak.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Pittsburgh as a nine-point favorite with a total of 38. As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Steelers favored by 10 with the total reduced to 33. Gamblers can back the Browns to win outright for a plus-400 return (risk $100 to win $400).

Cleveland (1-11 SU, ATS) has more problems than its AFC North visitors, but at least they’ve hooked up their backers in their last three games. That’s right, Eric Mangin’s team has cashed tickets three consecutive times out, including last week’s 30-23 loss to San Diego as a 13 ½-point home underdog.

The Chargers got ahead of the number at 30-14 on a 22-yard field goal by Nate Kaeding with 4:16 remaining. But the Browns got the backdoor cover thanks to an eight-yard touchdown pass from Brady Quinn to Jerome Harrison with two minutes left. The Browns tacked on a field goal to make it a one-possession game with Phil Dawson’s 49-yard boot, but they would get no closer in their upset bid.

Quinn completed 25-of-45 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. The third-year quarterback out of Notre Dame is starting to get into a groove with a pair of promising rookie wide receivers, Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massoquoi.

Over the last three weeks, Quinn has produced seven TD passes without getting picked off. Robiskie had four receptions for 69 yards against the Bolts, while Massaquoi had five catches for 115 yards in a 38-37 loss at Detroit three weeks ago.

Back to the Steelers, who might be missing WR Hines Ward, who is “questionable” with a hamstring injury. Ward is enjoying another stellar year with 72 receptions for 922 yards and six touchdowns. He and Ben Roethlisberger have combined to win two Super Bowls, but you have to question the current chemistry between the QB-WR combo.

A few years back, Big Ben publicly urged the front office to acquire a “tall” WR for him to throw to, which came off as a shot at Ward. Then last week, Ward questioned Roethlisberger’s absence from the lineup in a loss at Baltimore when he was a late scratch due to lingering concussion symptoms.

In both instances, the QB and WR issued apologies, but is everything ‘all good?’ Whatever the case, there’s no doubt that Mike Tomlin’s team desperately needs a victory for morale and its playoff hopes.

Pittsburgh is one of four teams who are one game back of the Jags for the AFC’s last wild-card spot. Remember, the Steelers failed to make the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl in 2006. They are in this predicament because of their road struggles, limping to a 2-4 record both SU and ATS when leaving the friendly confines of Heinz Field.

Tomlin’s team has been a double-digit ‘chalk’ four times in 2009. The Steelers are 0-4 ATS in those situations. They are clearly missing play-making safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fourth straight game tonight.

The defense has given up fourth-quarter leads in each of the last three losses, including last week’s embarrassment against the Raiders. Bruce Gradkowski, the back-up QB for an offense ranked 31st in the NFL, found rookie WR Louis Murphy for a pair of touchdown passes in the final stanza.

But the Browns might be just what the doctor ordered for the Steelers, who beat them for the 12th straight time on Oct. 18. They won a 27-14 decision but Cleveland backers took the money as a 14-point underdog. Roethlisberger threw for 417 yards and a pair of TDs.

Cleveland ranks last in the NFL in total defense, giving up more than 400 yards per game. This unit is also missing its bets player, dominant run-stuffing nose tackle Shaun Rogers who is missing his second straight game after going on injured reserve. Veteran RB Jamal Lewis (concussion) is also on IR and DL C.J. Mosely joined them on Monday.

The ‘over’ has hit in three straight Pittsburgh games. For the season, the ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for the Steelers, 4-2 in their road games.

The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Browns, but the ‘over’ is 3-2 in their home games.

The conditions are going to be a major factor tonight. According to weather.com, the low temperature will be 14 degrees with heavy wind and snow. Winds could be in the 25-35 mph range.

The NFL Network will have the telecast at 8:20 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The ‘over’ is 6-2-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between the Browns and Steelers.

--For what it’s worth (if anything), the ‘over’ is 4-0 in Pittsburgh’s four games as a double-digit favorite this year.

--Houston RB Steve Slaton (thumb, shoulder) has been placed on IR and will miss the remainder of the season.

--Philadelphia RB Brian Westbrook returned to practice Wednesday on a limited basis. He has sustained two concussions this season and has missed three straight games. The Eagles are one-point underdogs in the Meadowlands against the Giants on Sunday night. Westbrook hasn’t been ruled out against the G-Men, but bettors should consider him “doubtful” until further notice.

--Jets head coach Rex Ryan has decided to start Kellen Clemens at quarterback in Sunday’s game at Tampa Bay. Mark Sanchez was ruled “out” Wednesday after spraining his knee in last Thursday’s win vs. Buffalo (in Toronto).

--The other rookie QB starter, Detroit’s Matthew Stafford, will also rest his sore shoulder against the Ravens. Veteran QB Daunte Culpepper will get the starting nod for the Lions, who are 13 ½-point road favorites.

vegasinsider.com

Stumbling Steelers big road favorites in Dawg Pound
By Doug Upstone

Already blanked at home by a division rival in prime time, the Browns get another crack to show the nation how hopeless they are when they host Pittsburgh in a Thursday night tilt on the NFL Network. Cleveland (1-11, 6-6 ATS), a 16-0 loser at home to Baltimore on Monday night in Week 10, has dropped 12 straight against the Steelers (3-9 ATS) and are 1-18 and 6-11-2 ATS against Pittsburgh, including its only playoff game in the past decade.

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin vowed to unleash hell in December after the loss to the Ravens in Week 12 and the Oakland Raiders channeled former AC/DC front man Bon Scott and found out Hell aint a bad place to be in stunning 27-24 road upset as 15-point underdogs.

Pittsburgh (4-8 ATS) is in great danger of missing the playoffs at 6-6 and facing three difficult remaining games, the defending champs are in a must-win state. That shouldnt be a concern this week, as win-often is something the Steelers have done in Cleveland, eight straight times while going 4-2-2 ATS.

Coach Tomlin has seen enough. "We can't stay status quo in terms of how we're approaching this and expect the pattern of behavior or outcome to change," Tomlin said. "That's unrealistic. That's hoping. This is not a hope business." Expect to see changes in the secondary, especially at cornerback, where the Steelers have been beaten. All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu will likely miss his fourth straight game with a knee problem and rookie receiver Mike Wallace will start if Hines Wards as presumed cant go with a bad hamstring. The Steelers are 21-9-2 ATS as division road team.

The Steelers took a messy first meeting with the Browns, 27-14, at Heinz Field behind 417 yards passing from Ben Roethlisberger. The Week 6 game featured eight turnoversfour by each team but thats about the only area the statistics were even. The Steelers outgained the Browns 543-197, enjoyed a 28-12 difference in first downs and held the ball for almost 37 minutes.

That victory for the defending Super Bowl champs was their third during a five-game winning streak, but a rough three-game stretch followed and put them squarely on the playoff bubble. Pittsburghs loss in Kansas City in Week 11 was particularly disturbing because it rolled up 233 more yards than the Chiefs and saw Roethlisberger wobble off the field in overtime with a concussion that kept him out of a key showdown at Baltimore, which also ended with a defeat in overtime.

The Steelers were in a similar position in 2005 when they won their last four regular-season games to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, then went on to win three times on the road in the postseason and beat Seattle in the Super Bowl. Repeating that accomplishment doesnt seem likely, though its entirely possible theyll be favored to win each of their remaining games. After this trip to the Dawg Pound they play Green Bay and Baltimore at home before closing at Miami. Coming into the season, the Steelers were 7-2 ATS as road favorite off a SU loss; however they have failed to win or cover in two attempts in 2009.

The Browns still are not winning, nevertheless positive signs are emerging. They have beaten the oddsmakers three consecutive times, as Brady Quinn has played more than adequate football, throwing for over 255 yards in two of last three games and hasnt thrown an interception in that time. Cleveland is 10-4 ATS at home off a home game.

BetUS.com has Pittsburgh as 10-point favorites; however, they are just 2-6 ATS in last eight double-digit favorite roles under Tomlin, following the loss to the Raiders Sunday, including 0-4 against the number this season.

Cleveland has won just one of its last dozen games vs. AFC North foes (4-8 ATS) and is trying to snap a 10-game home losing streak. They are 2-7-1 ATS at home since unthinkable Monday night 35-14 upset of the then defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. After last weeks 30-23 loss to San Diego, the Brownies are 23-12-1 ATS after scoring 23 or more points.

Bettors have hit the total hard, taking it from opening 37.5 to 34. Pittsburgh is 13-4 UNDER in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite and Cleveland is 7-13-1UNDER as a division home dawg.

It will be the usual 8:20 Eastern starting time for this AFC North matchup on the NFL Network, with the UNDER 7-0 on Thursdays this season.

NFL Week 14

Thursday, December 10

Steelers (6-6) @ Browns (1-11)-- Pittsburgh lost last four games, last three all by three points; they're 2-4 on road, winning 28-10 at Denver (-1), 28-20 at Detroit (-10.5). Steelers are 3-8 vs spread as favorite, 1-4 on road. Cleveland (+14) lost 27-14 at Heinz back in Week 6; Cribbs ran kick back for Brown TD; Steelers averaged 10.6 ypa, Browns 3.8 (completed just 9-26 passes). Browns lost last seven games but covered last three, losing by 1-9-7 points. In twelve games this year, Cleveland scored less than 10 points seven times. AFC North underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in divisional games, 3-1 at home.

The Mighty Have Fallen
By SportsPic

Pittsburgh off a 27-24 loss to the Raiders the 4th straight defeat are in danger of missing the playoff after winning the Super Bowl for the second time in four years. Steelers 6-6 on the season, 4-8 at the betting window are now 14-14 (11-16-1 ATS) post Super Bowl victory including 5-9 (4-9-1 ATS) on the highway. Thursday's tilt at Browns Stadium in Cleveland certainly has the markings of a gift, however Steel Town Boys are in dangerous betting territory. Steelers are 5-16 ATS this millennium laying double digits including 0-3 ATS on the road and are 1-3 ATS laying heavy lumber knocking heads with Browns. Keep in mind, Super Bowl Winners the following season haven't been the greatest bets on the road going 39-37-2 ATS including 8-12 ATS laying a touchdown or more. Historical trends should not be your only handicapping tool however the numbers suggest a closer look is in order when considering last years Super Bowl Champs.

Tips and Trends

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Steelers (-10, O/U 33): Should Pittsburgh really be 10 point favorites over anyone right now? This team is reeling, which is something you aren't accustomed to seeing this late in the season. Pittsburgh has lost 4 consecutive games SU in route to a 6-6 record on the year. The Steelers are 2-4 on the road this year ATS. Pittsburgh is 0-4 ATS this year when listed as a double digit favorite, with their past 2 being SU losses. Despite his injury concerns, QB Ben Roethlisberger has had a great season (3,100 passing YDS and a QB Rating of 100.) Roethlisberger is one of only 6 QBs with a QB rating over 100. WRs Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward have combined for 1,900 YDS receiving with 9 TDs. This Steelers defense is 1 of only 5 teams that allow less than 300 YPG. They also have the best rushing defense in the NFL, allowing only 77 YPG.

Steelers are 1-6 ATS last 7 games as a road favorite.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - WR Hines Ward (hamstring) is doubtful.
CB William Gay (head) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)

Browns: Cleveland continues to live a nightmare of a season. The Browns are 1-11 SU, including 0-5 SU at home. Cleveland is 2-3 ATS at home this year. The Browns are playing better, as they've won their past 3 games ATS. This will be the 7th game this season the Browns are a double digit underdog, going 3-3 ATS thus far. Cleveland is playing their best football offensively right now, with much credit to QB Brady Quinn. Quinn has 7 TD passes without an interception over the past 3 games. Quinn has thrown over 270 YDS and 300 YDS in 2 of his past 3 games. Despite the fact that this offense is playing better, they still are only averaging 12 PPG which is 3rd worst in the entire NFL. Defensively, the Browns give up a ton of yards, as they are the only team in the NFL giving up more than 400 YPG. The Browns lost by 13 SU earlier this season to Pittsburgh, but won ATS as 13.5 underdogs.

Browns are 8-0 ATS last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 last 10 vs. AFC.

Key Injuries - CB Eric Wright (hamstring) is doubtful.
DE Kenyon Coleman (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 7