Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.
Odds aren't yet posted for this game, so check back later for the opening line and total.
The Colts defeated Denver 28-16 as a 6.5-point favorite in Week 14. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (43.5).
Peyton Manning passed for 220 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions for the Colts, while Dallas Clark caught five passes for 43 yards with three touchdowns.
The Jaguars lost to Miami 14-10 as a 2-point favorite in Week 14. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (43).
David Garrard threw for 139 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for Jacksonville, while Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 59 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries.
Current streak:
Indianapolis has won 13 straight games.
Team records:
Indianapolis: 13-0 SU, 9-4 ATS
Jacksonville: 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS
Indianapolis most recently:
When playing in December are 9-1
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 10-0
When playing within the division are 9-1
Jacksonville most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Indianapolis
Next up:
Indianapolis home to NY Jets, Sunday, December 27
Jacksonville at New England, Sunday, December 27
Indy at Jacksonville
By Brian Edwards
With homefield advantage throughout the playoffs already locked up thanks to its 13-0 start, Indianapolis (13-0 straight up, 9-3-1 against the spread) will come to Alltel Stadium to face division-rival Jacksonville by the St. John’s River on Thursday night.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Colts as 6 ½-point favorites with a total of 46 ½. As of Tuesday, most books were refraining from releasing a number out of fear that Indy may rest starters like quarterback Peyton Manning.
Jim Caldwell’s team stayed perfect this past week and won its 22nd straight regular-season game by beating Denver 28-16 as a 6½-point home favorite. The Colts raced out to a 21-0 lead before giving up 16 unanswered points that put the Broncos in position to collect a backdoor cover. However, Manning led a 14-play, 80-yard drive that was capped by a one-yard touchdown pass to Dallas Clark with 2:25 left, allowing Indy backers to cash tickets.
Jacksonville (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS) would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Jack Del Rio’s team currently owns the tiebreaker over three other AFC squads – the Jets, Dolphins and Ravens – for the final slot in the jumbled-up AFC wild-card mix.
The Jags had won four of their last five games before dropping a 14-10 decision to Miami this past Sunday as 2½-point home favorites. The ‘Fins dominated with a huge edge in first downs (22-10) and total offense (354-217), as the combination of Chad Henne and Ricky Williams outplayed David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew.
Garrard completed only 11-of-26 throws for 139 yards with zero TDs or interceptions. Jones-Drew rushed 18 times for 59 yards and one touchdown. Trailing by four with 1:26 left and the Jags facing a fourth-and-three from Miami’s 46, Garrard was stuffed on a quarterback draw.
The biggest question for gamblers in this game is the effort Caldwell’s bunch will put forth. Will Indy wait until next week to rest starters? Might Manning be yanked in favor of rookie Curtis Painter in the second half? Does DE Dwight Freeney get the night off?
If Caldwell’s stance on Monday doesn’t change, bettors should look for a 100-percent effort from the Colts. Caldwell told the Associated Press, "We're going to approach the 14th game exactly like we did one through 13. We've got a great rhythm in terms of our preparation and we're going to go out and play it just like we have done the previous 13."
Manning is enjoying another MVP-caliber campaign, completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 3,905 yards with a 29/14 touchdown-interception ratio. Wayne is Pro-Bowl bound again, hauling in 87 receptions for 1,078 yards and nine touchdowns. Clark has 82 catches for 902 yards and eight TDs.
Jones-Drew has rushed for 1,136 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. He also has 44 catches for 303 yards. Garrard has connected on 60.7 percent of his attempts for 2,987 yards with a 10/6 TD-INT ratio. Mike Sims-Walker has become Garrard’s favorite target, bringing down 53 receptions for 758 yards and six TDs.
Jacksonville has been a home underdog twice this season, winning outright over Tennessee and Houston in both instances. However, the Jags are just 2-5 ATS at home despite winning five of their seven games. After hosting the Colts, Del Rio’s team will finish the regular season with road games at New England (12/27) and at Cleveland (1/3).
Indy owns an incredible 6-0 record both SU and ATS on the road this year.
When these teams met on Sept. 13 in Indy, the Colts collected a 14-12 win but the Jags covered as 6½-point road underdogs. Jones-Drew ran for 97 yards and one touchdown, while Manning threw for 301 yards, including a 35-yard scoring strike to Reggie Wayne for a 14-6 lead midway through the third quarter.
Early in the final stanza, Jones-Drew responded with a seven-yard scamper to paydirt, but the Jags’ two-point conversion failed when the UCLA product was stuffed on a running play out of the Wildcat formation.
The ‘under’ has cashed in four consecutive Jacksonville games. For the season, the Jags have seen the ‘under’ go 7-6 overall, but the ‘over’ is 4-3 in their home games.
The ‘under’ is 7-6 overall for the Colts, 3-3 in their road assignments.
The NFL Network will have television coverage for Thursday’s 8:20 p.m. Eastern kickoff.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four Jags-Colts’ head-to-head meetings. The Jags are 3-1 ATS in those four encounters.
Jacksonville was missing a pair of starters – DT John Henderson and CB Rashean Mathis – in last week’s loss to the ‘Fins. Bettors should check the status of these players later in the week.
vegasinsider.com.
Thursday Night NFL Preview
By JH-Sportsline
Indianapolis Colts (13-0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6)
ATS Records: Colts (9-4) vs. Jags (5-8)
Current Line: Colts -3 Total: 41.5
The Colts will look to win their 23rd straight game overall, against division rival Jacksonville. The first game was close with the Colts winning 14-12 as 6-point favorites. If the Jags are going to upset the Colts they will need to pass for more than 114 yards, which is what they had in the first meeting. The Jags also rushed for 114 yards for a total of 228 yards on offense. That will not get it done. The Colts threw for 291 yards proving once again it's a passing league.
As little as five years ago teams that had more rushing yards would seemingly win 60-70% of the time. In today's NFL it's more like 50%. Turnovers will always be a "key" factor as teams with at least a +10 in takeaways all have winning records.
Since 2005, the team that had more passing yards has won the game straight-up 63% of the time. Keep in mind that number is impressive because most teams that are way behind must throw the rest of the game which pads the passing stats.
Better Offense
The Colts average 385 yards good for 27.6 points per game. The Jags average 341 yards good for 18.1 points per game.
Better Defense
The Colts allow 327 ypg good for 16.7 points against average. The Jags allow 346 ypg good for 22.1 points against average. How telling is that stat! You can see that the Colts have a bend but don't break philosophy. The Colts force the opposition into FG attempts nearly 75% of the time.
Better Special Teams
It's no shock the Colts have the #2 rated Special Teams in all of football while Jacksonville is ranked #19. A complex formula that calculates every aspect of special teams play. (kicking, punting, kick/punt returns/coverage, tackling, takeaways, giveaways, starting field position, and chemistry)
Any guess at which NFL squad is #1 this year in Special Teams play??????
Your right if you said Saints!
Intangibles
Jacksonville for sure. Consider this a playoff game for the Jaguars as three straight wins could mean a playoff birth. Even if Jax goes 2-1 down the stretch and finish 9-7. The Colts have said they don't care about going undefeated this season.
Side Selection
The Odds-makers have set the perfect Trap line here. I have a feeling the Colts long long winning streak comes to an end. Take the hungry Jags!
Top Trends
The Colts are 6-0 ATS on Thursday since 1992.
The Jaguars are 10-4 ATS when playing with same season revenge.
What Bettors Need To Know: Colts at Jaguars
By BILL CLOUTIER
The Indianapolis Colts (13-0) have locked up the division title, a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Jacksonville (7-6) controls its own playoff destiny. If the Jaguars win out they’ll make the playoffs because they hold tiebreaker edges on the rest of the 7-6 AFC teams. A Jags’ loss and their playoff hopes are just about over.
Drawing the line
With all the uncertainty about the Colts’ plans, even the offshore books were afraid to post a number here. Convinced that the Colts' starters will play, they finally listed Indy as a 3-point favorite with the total of 42.
Weather
The forecast calls for scattered showers with temperatures in the lower 60s.
Rest vs. Rust
Indy coach Jim Caldwell has said that Peyton Manning and Co. will play the entire game.
"We're going to approach the 14th game exactly as we did [games] 1 to 13," Caldwell said. "We're going to go out and play just like we have done the previous 13."
Should we believe him? If the Colts started resting their stars now, they wouldn’t play a meaningful game for 34 or 35 days and first-year coach Caldwell knows that’s too long. Look for Manning, Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai to begin their vacations next week against Jets.
The only disturbing statement in the entire matter was made by Manning himself, who said he hoped the coaching staff didn’t announce its game plans publically as it has in the past.
Still, all signs point to Manning going the distance here especially since he no longer has Jim Sorgi to back him up. Sorgi was put on IR a week ago leaving rookie Curtis Painter as Manning's back-up and he has not played all season.
The Marshall Plan?
Jacksonville wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker, who was listed as doubtful last week with a calf injury but still played the entire game, practiced fully for the first time in weeks on Tuesday. MSW was a non-factor in the team’s first meeting but has since become the leading wideout for the Jags with 53 catches, 758 yards and six TDS.
Sims-Walker has struggled mightily the past two weeks. He has just two catches despite being targeted 16 times in that span. He’s still the only Jag receiver with the size and speed to take advantage of a Colts secondary that watched Denver's Brandon Marshall catch a record 21 balls in last week's game.
Jags in disarray
The Jaguars may be gunning for a playoff berth but they sure aren't sharp. Last week the Jags had 12 men on the field twice and on a crucial fourth-down play in the fourth quarter they had only 10 men on offense. When Miami safety Yeremiah Bell realized he didn't have a receiver to cover because the Jaguars were short a player he freelanced and knocked down a pass to Sims-Walker that ended the drive at the Dolphins 45.
Colts-Jags part deux
Manning threw for 301 yards as Indy edged Jacksonville 14-12 in Week 1 as the road team covered for the fifth straight time in the series.
The Jaguars have given up 20 TD passes on the season and have just 14 sacks and that should mean that Manning, who leads the NFL with 3,905 passing yards will have a lot of time to throw.
Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 97 yards on 21 carries in the opener and should get a ton of touches in this one. He has scored 14 of the Jags’ 27 TDs.
Injury report
One thing’s for sure, anyone seriously injured for the Colts won’t play for the rest of the regular season. That should eliminate back-up running back Donald Brown, who’s been sidelined for several weeks with a chest injury.
Joseph Addai is not 100 percent but will play. Mike Hart will also get some carries.
DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are questionable and were among 10 players who did not participate in practice on Tuesday.
Jacksonville will be without fullback Greg Lewis (ankle). Montell Owens is expected to start. Cornerback Rashean Mathis is also questionable with a groin injury.
Short week, no problem
The Colts have played four games on Thursday after playing the previous Sunday and won them all. They’ve also scored at least 31 points in each of the games including a 31-24 win at Jacksonville last year.
Trend-setting
The Colts have won 13 of 17 in this series. They are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games.
Indianapolis is the best team in the NFL against the spread. The Colts are 9-3-1 against the number while the Jaguars are one of the worst at 5-8.
Jacksonville has scored less the 20 points eight times this year and is averaging a woeful 9.2 points in losses.
The over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Jacksonville.
Week 15 NFL Games
Thursday, December 17
Colts (13-0) @ Jaguars (7-6)-- Not sure how long Indy plays starters here at Jacksonville team fighting for playoff spot; Jags (+7) lost 14-12 in opener at Indy in Week 1, outrushing Colts 114-71 but gaining just 228 yards for game. Colts are 6-0 vs spread on road, winning away games by 4-21-22-36-2-8 pts. Jaguars scored three TDs on last 31 drives; in last five games, they have total of just 17 second half points. Game sold out, first Jacksonville home game to do so this season. Last four Jaguar games stayed under total. Visiting teams are 6-3 vs spread in AFC South games.
Unbeaten Colts look to tame Jaguars
By Doug Upstone
Week 15 of the NFL season begins with a divisional rivalry and arguably some very bizarre circumstances. The Indianapolis Colts are one of two undefeated teams still walking around the NFL and they have been known to shut it down, at least partially, once their playoff determination has been made. Jacksonville is fighting to make playoffs in the AFC, despite being outscored by 52 points per game.
The Setup
The game is critical on several fronts, as Indy has clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but doesnt want to lose momentum while trying to get healthier, while the Jaguars look to keep pace in the wildcard hunt. These teams have played a very competitive series of late, and in fact, with the Colts tight 14-12 win in the season opener, the visitor is on a five-game ATS winning streak. Jacksonville boasts a 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS mark versus AFC South foes, but is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home finales. Indy is a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS on the road in 09, outscoring opponents 30.5-15.0 on average.
Why Watch
In wagering circles, this game created a reported firestorm of activity. Most wagering outlets opened this matchup with Indianapolis at -5 and word spread late Sunday into early Monday that the Colts were going to rest many of their star players and walking wounded on a short week. Though not officially confirmed or acknowledged, there were internet reports of huge amounts of money wagered on Jacksonville taking the line on the Jags either to pick or slightly favored.
Colts head coach Jim Caldwell came out Monday and stated that his team wont willingly try not to win and those that are healthy enough to play, will on Thursday night and the rest of the (regular) season. This seemed to have calmed the situation and Indianapolis is listed as field goal favorite.
As of Tuesday, Indianapolis had 29 players listed on their injury report, including such notables as Joseph Addai, offensive tackles Ryan Diem and Tony Ugoh and defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Jacksonville is far from 100 percent healthy and the status of cornerback Rashean Mathis, defensive tackle John Henderson and receiver Mike Sims-Walker remains questionable.
Coaches and players can talk about getting ready for the playoffs, but once the game starts and the player is dressed, the juices are flowing and they want to compete. Some Colts players may not play the whole game, however their mission at least internally is to build enough of a lead, they can come out and let the reserves finish off the win.
Another reason to check this game out is a rare scene; all the seats will be full in Jacksonville Municipal Stadium with this contest an unusual sellout in northern Florida. That only helps the Jaguars be that much more ready for a must win game to keep postseason hopes alive.
Why Wager
Colts backers know how good theyve been on the road, and though this isnt a big rivalry for Indianapolis, they have always handled like a big brother-little brother situation and wanted to keep Jacksonville from feeling too good about themselves. Indy is 21-7 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite the last 17 years and is 13-3 ATS on the road after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games.
The truth is Jacksonville is ordinary at best, but is one of four teams that are 7-6, fighting for that last playoff slot. The Jaguars are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they have been a home underdog, which in part helps soothe their recent 3-12 ATS mark at home. Coach Jack Del Rios defense is wafer thin with all the injuries and was pushed around last week by Miami (352 yards) and they are 4-12 ATS after surrendering 350 or more yards.
Streak players have to love the UNDER is 8-0 on Thursday nights this season.
The Line
Colts by 3 with total lowered to 42.
What Happens
Indianapolis will look for fast start similar to what they did in 2007, when they jumped the Jaguars early on the way to a super easy 29-7 win as three-point favorites. That means Peyton Manning attacking soft corners and going for the throat in the red zone. After early season struggles in the red zone, the Colts have scored 17 touchdowns in last 23 tries inside the opponents 20-yard line. On defense, bottle Maurice Jones-Drew and make David Garrard beat you thru air.
Evidently Garrard missed the meeting on ball security, as he continues to put the pigskin on the ground when pressured. Coach Del Rio has to coach up the offensive line to pound away at injury-plagued Indianapolis defense. This gives Jacksonville best chance to pull upset and opens up play-action passing game. Defensively, force Manning to hit checkdowns. This strategy makes the Colts be more patient and forces them to drive the length of the field instead of hitting killer big plays, which the Jags lack the offensive firepower to recover from.
Indianapolis (13-0, 9-4 ATS) at Jacksonville (7-6, 5-8 ATS)
The Colts, who have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, continue their march toward a perfect season when they travel to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium to face the Jaguars.
Indianapolis raced out to a 21-0 lead against Denver on Sunday, then held off a second-half Broncos rally in winning 28-16 as a 6½-point home chalk, cashing for the fourth straight week. With the win, the Colts not only wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the set an NFL record with their 22nd consecutive regular-season victory. Indianapolis continues to roll on offense, ranking fourth in total yards at 384.4 per game and fifth in scoring at 27.6 points per game. Also, QB Peyton Manning (29 TDs, 14 INTs) leads the No. 1 passing attack (296.4 ypg), though he threw three INTs last week. Indy also boasts the league’s No. 2 scoring defense, yielding just 16.7 ppg.
The unknown for the Colts this week is how long first-year coach Jim Caldwell will keep his starters in. Caldwell has said his healthy first-stringers will start, but didn’t specify if or when he will start substituting with replacements.
Jacksonville’s playoff hopes took a big blow with a 14-10 home loss to Miami on Sunday as a three-point chalk, its third ATS setback in the last four games (2-2 SU). The Jags’ major issue has been an inability to score points, as they average just 18.1 ppg (23rd) while allowing four points more at 22.1 ppg (20th). Jacksonville has been held to 18 points or less seven times, losing six of those games.
Indianapolis narrowly topped Jacksonville 14-12 in Week 1, failing to cover as a 6½-point home chalk while winning SU for the fourth time in five games in this AFC South rivalry (2-3 ATS). The road team has cashed in five consecutive meetings, with Indy going 3-1-1 ATS on its last five trips to Jacksonville.
The Colts are 14-7-1 ATS during their 22-game regular-season win streak), and they are on a bundle of additional pointspread upswings, including 4-1 overall (all as a chalk, and all against the AFC), 6-0-1 on Thursday night, 15-5-1 on the highway, 5-0 as a road chalk and 4-0 in December.
The Jaguars have covered in four of their last five AFC South contests and are on an 11-4-1 ATS roll as a home pup. However, they also carry negative ATS streaks of 2-7 overall, 3-12 at home, 1-5 against winning teams, 2-6 in December and 3-7 following a SU loss.
The over is 5-2 in Indianapolis’ last seven Thursday games and 12-5-2 in Jacksonville’s last 19 contests against winning teams, and the total has gone high six of the last eight times these teams have met in Florida. However, the under is 5-1 in the Colts’ last six division tilts, and the Jags are on “under” runs of 4-0 overall, 6-1 in December and 4-1 as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
Perfection
By SportsPic
The Indianapolis Colts aim to extend their unblemished record at Jacksonville. Colts remarkable journey not only includes a 13-0 (9-4 ATS) mark this season but they've also set an NFL record for consecutive regular season victories at 22 (14-7-1 ATS). Although Colts walked a tight rope over the first ten games winning six of them by four or less the squad upped the ante the past three winning by an average 13.3 PPG. While Colts have nothing at stake having wrapped up the AFC's #1-seed for the playoffs, the Jags off a 14-10 home loss to the Dolphins have plenty riding as they need to win all remaining games to earn a playoff spot. Jags have given Colts some trouble the last four in the series with the games settled by a total 14 points, including Indy's 14-12 home victory back in week-one. Spread-wise, Jags have done well vs Colts picking up the cash in 3-of-4 (3-1 ATS) and 6-of-10 (6-3-1). Other trends of interest: Colts enter 9-0-1 ATS on the highway over it's 22 game streak, 7-13 ATS the past twenty overall vs AFC South opponents. Jags come in 3-12 ATS the last 15 home game but it is well to note Jags are a profitable 10-2 ATS the last twelve as home pups of 3 or less.
Tips and Trends
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Colts (-3, O/U 43): What else can be said about the Colts other than perfection? Indianapolis has already clinched the number 1 seed in the AFC during the Playoffs. Along with a perfect 13-0 SU record, Indianapolis is also 9-3-1 ATS on the season. This includes a road ATS record of 6-0 this year. This Colts offense really comes alive on the road, as they've scored 27 PTS or more in 5 of their 6 road games. This offense is a huge reason they are 5-0 ATS as a road favorite on the season. QB Peyton Manning has been remarkable this season, throwing for more than 3,900 YDS, including 29 TDs. Manning leads the NFL with 3,905 passing YDS, which is a per game average over 300 YDS. As a team, the Colts are 5th in the NFL with 27.6 PPG this season. Defensively, the Colts allow only 16.7 PPG which is 2nd best in the entire NFL. The Colts scored a season low 14 points in Week 1 against the Jaguars.
Colts are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite.
Under is 5-1 last 6 vs. AFC South.
Key Injuries - DE Robert Mathis (quad) is questionable.
T Tony Ugoh (knee) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 23
Jaguars: Jacksonville is in desperation mode, needing to win their final 3 games to have any chance at making the playoffs. These two teams met in Week 1, with the Colts winning by 2 points. The Jaguars were +6.5 underdogs and easily covered. Jacksonville is 5-3 ATS as an underdog this year, including a perfect 2-0 ATS record as a home underdog. In both home games as underdogs this season, the Jaguars combined score is is 60-35. QB David Garrard has thrown for nearly 3,000 YDS this season at a completion percentage of 60%. RB Maurice Jones Drew has nearly 1,450 total YDS with 14 TDs. This Jaguars defense has started to come alive over the past 4 weeks, as they've held 4 consecutive opponents to 20 PTS or fewer. This defense will have to again be stellar to give their team a chance to beat a Peyton Manning led Colts team.
Jaguars are 10-2 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog up to a field goal.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games overall.
Key Injuries - CB Rashean Mathis (leg) is questionable.
WR Mike Sims-Walker (calf) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)