Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 7/31/18 .
Futures Outlook - AFC North
July 18, 2018
By Phil Simon
NFL Futures – Odds To Win AFC North
The biggest surprise coming out of the AFC North is that the Cleveland Browns ( +1000 ) have the same odds as the Cincinnati Bengals to win the division. Not surprising is that the Pittsburgh Steelers are overwhelming favorites at -257 to win their third straight division title and fourth in five seasons.
On the surface everything looks great in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t hinted at retirement this offseason and the Killer B’s are back to form one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. However, there is no Ryan Shazier playing defense, Le’Veon Bell’s contract continues to be a mess, as does Antonio Brown’s head.
While that probably doesn’t lead to the Steelers falling from their perch at the top, it could be just enough of a distraction to give the Baltimore Ravens a chance. The best bet is that the Browns and Bengals will be battling for last place and it’s hard to think the Ravens have done enough to make up the difference from last season. It’s been three seasons since Baltimore has been to the playoffs, their longest stretch since their first four years in Maryland, and they are hungry.
AFC North Odds at BookMaker.eu
Pittsburgh Steelers -257
Baltimore Ravens +374
Cleveland Browns +1000
Cincinnati Bengals +1000
Division Breakdown
It’s Pittsburgh’s division to lose, and much like the Patriots in the East, the Steelers have a soft division schedule. The price isn’t as steep as the Pats’ but it’ll take a healthy wager to get some return. With Big Ben slinging the ball to Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Bell doing what he does, scoring points won’t be a problem. Bell’s ongoing contract dispute with the club could be a distraction, but this is a veteran group with stern leadership that will stick to playing football once the bell rings.
Finding a leader on defense to take over for Shazier is an absolute necessity. The Steelers were solid when he played, but they struggled after he was injured and giving up 45 points to the Jags in the playoffs was an embarrassment. Without help defensively, the Steelers aren’t good enough to win the AFC, but getting through the division is a likely scenario.
It’s hard to pick the second-best team in the division and one could make an argument that it isn’t Baltimore. The Ravens, and especially Joe Flacco, have regressed the last few seasons and the club drafted Lamar Jackson to push the veteran signal-caller. The Ravens have always been about defense and they’ve won a lot of games behind one of the best units in the NFL. That was the case last season as Flacco averaged less than 200 yards passing per game.
There were some issues, mainly with the receivers, and the Ravens addressed those by bringing in Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead to help out the 29th ranked passing game. Alex Collins was a stud over the final month of last season and Terrell Suggs is still plugging away on defense. I think the Ravens have a good shot at toppling the Steelers as long as the injury bug doesn’t sink them.
The Browns had another good haul in the draft and should win some games this season. Expecting them to compete for a division title is too much, though. This is a club that has only one victory in the past two seasons after all. And winning 10 games, which is the minimum it would take to get to the top, is an exaggeration. Winning six games would make a great season, and the earlier in the season the better for Hue Jackson.
Jackson staying in Cleveland after an ohfer last season was perplexing, but not as much as Marvin Lewis still being gainfully employed in Cincinnati. The Bengals haven’t won a postseason game under Lewis, but they got there seven times in an 11-year stretch. That was enough to keep him around. But after two sub-.500 seasons there is reason to be concerned. After playing near the top of the division and conference for many years, maybe it’s time the Bengals sneak up on the pack. The talent is there and the offense can be good with its bevy of weapons. The onus is on Andy Dalton and Lewis to pick up the rest of the club and if they do the stripes could make some noise in the North.
Futures Outlook - AFC West
July 23, 2018
NFL Futures - Odds to win AFC West
The Los Angeles Chargers didn’t make the playoffs or win the AFC West last year but the oddsmakers are believers in 2018. The Chargers have been labeled as the team to beat ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos.
The Chargers have longtime quarterback Philip Rivers under center once again but the key to their rise is an improved defense. Los Angeles has some elite players on that side of the ball and may be the most well-rounded team in the division.
The Chiefs made a bold move this offseason by trading away starting quarterback Alex Smith, which has given the reins to young signal-caller Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, and if Mahomes is simply competent this team figures to fight for the division title. The Chiefs may boast the widest variance among AFC West teams because of the unknown nature of Mahomes’ ability to lead the offense.
The Oakland Raiders struggled in 2017 but hope that between standout quarterback Derek Carr and superstar pass-rusher Khalil Mack, there is enough top-end talent to return into the divisional and playoff mix.
The Denver Broncos have some talent on defense but the quarterback position has been an issue for multiple years since Peyton Manning’s retirement. Case Keenum was signed in free agency and he will aim to stop the bleeding.
This is an interesting group of teams as it’s not out of the realm of possibility that any of them end up on top of the heap when the season concludes in AFC West betting odds.
AFC WEST ODDS
Los Angeles Chargers +124
Kansas City Chiefs +221
Oakland Raiders +419
Denver Broncos +522
AFC WEST STANDINGS (2017 Season)
Chiefs 10-6
Chargers 9-7
Raiders 6-10
Broncos 5-11
Odds Analysis
The Chargers are not a good bet because of the line. There are more established teams that are the favorites in their divisions and it’s smarter to go with those that have more of a track record. Los Angeles seems to have all the tools but this team has had high expectations before and failed to live up to them.
The AFC West is tough, as every team is capable of beating another on any given day. There is just too much unknown in this division to go with the favorite.
A much better bet is the Chiefs. The odds are longer but beyond the quarterback position Kansas City has everything it needs to win double-digit games. As long as Mahomes doesn’t turn the ball over too much this team could make a nice run. The Chiefs were willing to deal Smith after watching Mahomes in practice for a year, which bodes well for his ability to come in and play well. It’s not a given that the Chiefs play well this season but these odds are too good to pass up.
The Raiders are more than 4-to-1 to win but even that seems low. Carr is still trying to prove himself as an upper echelon quarterback and struggled throughout 2017 after a nice 2016. If the offensive line isn’t dominant this is a team that could have some issues. Oakland seems to have little chance of winning the AFC West.
When it comes to longshots, the Broncos are a better pick. If they get competent quarterback play from Keenum, Denver could be right back in the mix. With the type of defense the team has, Keenum won’t have to try to do too much, and that’s the situation in which he is the most comfortable.
While the Broncos are a good bet, the best choice is the Chiefs to win the AFC West in NFL odds.
AFC West ATS Pick: Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC West
Futures Outlook - AFC South
July 19, 2018
NFL Futures – Odds To Win AFC North
The Jacksonville Jaguars made it to the AFC Championship game in 2017 and nearly knocked off the mighty New England Patriots for a berth in the Super Bowl. They have their ferocious defense back and will be the favorites to win the AFC South as the Jaguars prep for another deep playoff run.
However, the division title is no given as there are a couple of up-and-coming teams competing with them.
The Houston Texans were riddled with injuries a season ago but flashed some serious talent. They have superstar defensive end J.J. Watt teaming with Jadeveon Clowney on the line, while safety Tyrann Mathieu was added in free agency and will aim to get back to his All-Pro ability after past knee injuries. The team’s hopes will likely come down to the star power of Deshaun Watson, the second-year quarterback who looked like a star a season ago before tearing his ACL.
The Tennessee Titans are another interesting team. They made the playoffs a year ago after an up-and-down campaign and hope the offseason additions of running back Dion Lewis and cornerback Malcolm Butler will help their cause. Marcus Mariota regressed in 2017 and will need to live up to his vast potential for this team to have a shot at the AFC South title.
The longshot among the group is the Indianapolis Colts. They do not have a lot of talent across the board and the team’s entire hopes will ride on the arm of Andrew Luck. He missed all of last season with a shoulder injury and it remains to be seen if he will ever return to the level of a star. It will be tough for the Colts to remain a competitor unless Luck is a Pro Bowler again in NFL betting.
AFC SOUTH ODDS - per BookMaker.eu
Jacksonville Jaguars +171
Houston Texans +208
Tennessee Titans +277
Indianapolis Colts +570
AFC SOUTH STANDINGS (2017 Season)
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
Tennessee Titans (9-7)
Indianapolis Colts (4-12)
Houston Texans (4-12)
Odds Analysis
The Jaguars were a much better team than the Titans last season even though they only finished one game apart in the standings. However, there are some worries. The offense isn’t that good as quarterback Blake Bortles needs to prove he is a better-than-average quarterback for the team. The defense is great but had fantastic health in 2017 and must hope none of its stars like Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye or Calais Campbell go down with ailments. Despite the worries, Jacksonville has the right odds.
The Texans are the only team that can realistically knock them off. If Watson can build on last year and Watt stays healthy, this team is dangerous on both sides of the ball. It’s a bit of an unknown on both fronts but Houston has some of the best talent in the division and should be in the mix.
The Titans’ odds are much too good, as are the Colts. Neither team has a legitimate shot at winning the AFC South as the other two teams are much better. Avoid Tennessee at all costs as the team may not even finish above .500 this year and do not pay out very well at all. The Colts are at least a bigger underdog but there is a lack of talent around Luck that makes another losing season likely.
Don’t over thing the pecking order in the AFC South as the Jaguars will win a second straight division crown in NFL wagering.
AFC South ATS Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South
Futures Outlook - AFC East
July 17, 2018
By Phil Simon
NFL Futures – Odds To Win AFC East
The AFC East has been owned by the New England Patriots over the last nearly two decades and 2018 doesn’t appear to be any different. There are questions surrounding the Pats, mainly the age of Tom Brady and the loss of Julian Edelman for the first quarter of the season. But even that isn’t enough to deter oddsmakers from setting the Pats as a heavy favorite. In fact, New England is the heaviest favorite at -680 to win any division in the NFL.
The Pats have won the East for a league record nine straight seasons and 15 times in 17 seasons since Brady became the starter. We can throw away the 2008 campaign when Brady went down in the opener with a knee injury and the Pats finished second. That means the duo of Brady and Bill Belichick were denied the division crown just one time. That’s a remarkable run. The Pats could slip to nine or 10 wins and still claim the division with a group of rebuilding teams.
2018 AFC East Odds at BookMaker.eu
New England Patriots -680
Miami Dolphins +845
Buffalo Bills +1400
New York Jets +1500
Division Breakdown
Are the Pats really worth taking a wager on? That’s the big question. Bettors will have to put down a good chunk to see a worthwhile return, but it will likely pay off for the 10th season in a row. New England’s dominance starts within the division where the Pats have won nine of the last 10 games against their AFC East foes. Over the last five seasons they are 22-8 against the Jets, Bills and Dolphins with Buffalo and New York winning just two games in that time.
New England is easily the best team in the division heading into 2018, but that will change soon. Brady will be 41 by the time the season starts and he looked old and slow in the Pats’ Super Bowl loss to Philadelphia in February. But despite that unusual showing, Brady had another MVP season, throwing for a league-best 4,577 yards with 32 touchdowns. He threw the most passes in the NFL last season and was intercepted only eight times.
There will be some changes to the roster in 2018. Danny Amendola and Brandin Cooks are gone and Edelman will miss the first four games due to a suspension. That leaves holes in the receiving corps. But it also opens up Rob Gronkowksi to have a big season. It doesn’t seem to matter who the Patriots are missing, Belichick is a master at bringing in players to fill needs. He’s done it his entire career and who doesn’t want to play for a team that contends every season?
We thought Brady was done last year, and the year before that. But he keeps coming back for more. As long as he’s running the offense, there are no problems. The Pats led the NFL in total yards last season while finishing second in scoring. They’ve finished among the top-four in points every year since 2010 twice leading the NFL. Defense was an issue in 2018. The Pats ranked 29th in yards allowed, but they stiffened when it mattered, giving up 18.5 points per game to place fifth in the league.
The battle is for second place in the division with the Dolphins getting the early edge at +845. The return of Ryan Tannehill plays a part in that, but the Fins lost some important pieces to their offense. Jay Ajayi, who was leading the team in rushing, was dealt during last season, and the NFL’s leader in receptions Jarvis Landry was traded to Cleveland this offseason. The defense lost Ndamukong Suh and it’s hard to imagine the Dolphins competing, despite the moves that improved team chemistry.
It was a season fans in Buffalo have waited nearly two decades for. The Bills ended the longest active playoff drought by qualifying for the playoffs last season for the first time since the 1999 season. It didn’t last long with an excruciating 10-3 loss to Jacksonville in the wild card game. And it’s hard to argue that the Bills are better heading into 2018. Tyrod Taylor was traded away and A.J. McCarron is the new starter, at least for now, keeping the seat warm for Josh Allen. Buffalo was arguably one of the worst playoff teams and the cloud surrounding LeSean McCoy could be a factor in their expected return to non-playoff combatant in 2018.
The Jets are the longshot at +1500 and they showed competitiveness that few expected last season. With the No. 3 overall pick in the draft the Jets landed what many believe is their franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold. Gang Green hasn’t had one of those since the days of Joe Willie Namath in the early years of the franchise and Todd Bowles isn’t in a hurry to rush the youngster. That means the Jets are at least a year away from contending, but they could finish second if things go their way.