Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 7/30/18
NFL Futures - Odds to win NFC East
The Philadelphia Eagles are the defending Super Bowl champions and are returning nearly every key piece from a season ago. They have also added defensive end Michael Bennett among others so it is clear why they are the team to beat in the NFC East.
The Eagles won last year’s title despite losing quarterback Carson Wentz to a torn ACL. He should be good to go early on but even if Wentz has to sit for a few games backup Nick Foles is still a solid option. It’s hard to see the Eagles losing this division because they are so deep and talented.
The Dallas Cowboys figure to be the toughest competition to Philadelphia’s throne. They have quarterback Dak Prescott, running back Ezekiel Elliott and a stellar offensive line leading the way. Dez Bryant was released this offseason but the offense should be fine. Dallas struggled a year ago but figures to bounce back and be in playoff contention once again in 2018.
The New York Giants went through a dreadful 2017 after a rash of injuries. They could have started a rebuild by drafting a quarterback but went for more of a quick fix by choosing running back Saquon Barkley out of Penn State. Between Barkley and star wide receiver Odell Beckham, the Giants should have a pair of elite weapons for signal-caller Eli Manning. It should be apparent early in the season whether or not the decision to forgo a quarterback in the draft was the right one. New York was awful last season and it would be a pretty big surprise if it competes for the NFC East title.
The Washington Redskins are the biggest longshot to win the division. They downgraded at quarterback when Kirk Cousins left in free agency. The team traded for Alex Smith and he isn’t a bad replacement but there are questions as to whether there is enough talent around him. If Cousins couldn’t get this team to win consistently it stands to wonder if Smith can find any success. It’s going to be quite the ordeal for the Redskins to find a way to stay up with the powerhouse Eagles.
NFC EAST ODDS - per BookMaker.eu
Eagles -164
Cowboys +377
Giants +489
Redskins +785
NFC EAST STANDINGS (2017 Season)
Eagles 13-3
Cowboys 9-7
Redskins 7-9
Giants 3-13
Odds Analysis
The Eagles are the clear favorite but really these are decent odds. The Redskins and Giants do not seem to have a great shot at winning the NFC East, so all Philadelphia would need to do is hold off the Cowboys. Injuries happen to everyone, but the Eagles have the type of squad that can overcome these issues, as they showed a year ago. It’s not always smart to go with the favorite but these are solid odds for such a dominant Philly team.
The Cowboys are the other option. Teams with a solid quarterback and offensive line should have a chance each week, and Dallas boasts that. There are some questions on defense and in the end the chance to surpass the Eagles could rest on that unit.
The Giants are a very poor wager. New York may improve this season but have serious questions on defense and a suspect offensive line. It would be a huge upset for the team to win the division and the odds are not long enough for it to be a good bet. The Redskins, too, have very little chance of winning, but a quarterback switch at least makes them bring more intrigue and aren’t the worst longshot pick in the world.
In the end, this is an easy choice. Go with the defending champions to win the NFC East in NFL wagering.
NFC East ATS Pick: Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC East
NFL Futures - Odds to win NFC North
The NFC North is stacking up to be one of the more competitive divisions in the NFL, with a pair of teams that have a legitimate shot at making the Super Bowl. The Minnesota Vikings made it to the NFC Championship game a season ago and added standout quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency, which has it believing it can make another deep run.
While the Vikings are the favorite to repeat as division winners, they will have a legitimate challenger in the Green Bay Packers. The team dealt with a down season in 2017 but that was because superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers was lost for a significant chunk of the season due to injury. Rodgers is healthy now and will aim to lead his team to the NFC North crown.
There are a pair of longshots among the quartet. The Detroit Lions have a standout quarterback in Matthew Stafford and some other solid pieces but do not own the high-end talent of the teams they will be chasing.
The Chicago Bears added some intriguing pieces and are hoping for a step forward from second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky but even if the team improves it is hard to imagine it is in the same ballpark as the mighty Vikings and Packers.
NFC North ODDS - per BookMaker.eu
Minnesota Vikings +119
Green Bay Packers +145
Detroit Lions +640
Chicago Bears +846
NFC North STANDINGS (2017 Season)
Vikings 13-3
Lions 9-7
Packers 7-9
Bears 5-11
Odds Analysis
The Vikings cruised to the NFC North title a year ago but it figures to be much more difficult in 2018. The addition of Cousins makes this a more dangerous team but finishing ahead of Rodgers and the Packers will be no easy task. While there are reasons to be cautious, this is still a decent line for Minnesota. The Vikings lost starting quarterback Sam Bradford to a knee injury a year ago but still were a great team. They have solid options at wide receiver and a ferocious defense, so Cousins doesn’t have to do it all and should excel in these situations.
The Packers should never be counted out but they are not a great wager. Rodgers has to be great week in and week out for this team to win the NFC North. He is going to have a few bumps along the way and Green Bay is not nearly as talented across the board as Minnesota.
The Lions are in a perpetual state of mediocrity and that won’t change in 2018. Stafford should keep the team in games but there aren’t a ton of playmakers on offense and the defense has holes. Detroit needs to find a few more elite players to help lift the team into playoff contention.
The Bears are a more interesting longshot pick. Trubisky has the pure ability to make a big leap forward, and Chicago now has many more options on offense after a noticeable shortage of pass-catchers a season ago. It’s hard to know exactly what the offense will look like but there are plenty of reasons to see an improvement coming. The defense has been up and down in recent years and could have a tough time slowing down the three NFC North opponents consistently.
If Chicago was in an easier division it could be a viable underdog choice, but the presence of the Packers and Vikings makes it too much of a longshot. This seems to be a two-team race in 2018, and the deeper, more well-rounded team should emerge with a second straight NFC North title. Look for Cousins to play well and help the Vikings claim the division in NFL wagering.
NFC North ATS Pick: Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North
NFL Futures - Odds to win NFC South
The NFC South was one of the most talented divisions in the NFL in 2017 and it is stacking up to be so again this year.
The New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons all made the playoffs a season ago and each finished within a game of each other in the standings. The Saints won the NFC South by virtue of a tiebreaker over the Panthers and made it to the NFC Divisional Round before a last-second touchdown by the Vikings knocked them out of the postseason.
New Orleans returns a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, led by Drew Brees, and will enter this season as the favorite to capture the division once again. The Saints’ odds have improved because they have finally put a solid defense on the field to avoid forcing Brees to win shootouts. The running back addition of Alvin Kamara was also huge last season and the mixture of balance and Brees makes the Saints tough to beat.
The Falcons were on the precipice of winning the Super Bowl two years ago and then made it back to the playoffs a year ago, but the offense never quite performed like it did in 2016 under offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. The main pieces are still in place and if the offense can find its magic again this team has the potential to be very dangerous.
The Carolina Panthers have a solid defense once again and star quarterback Cam Newton. The team has been inconsistent often but always seems to find a way to win its share of games. The Panthers have lost many key members of their defensive coaching staff the past two years and it is fair to wonder if the departure of some smart minds will take its toll.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the extreme longshot in a three-team race. The Bucs are the least talented team in the division and won’t have suspended quarterback Jameis Winston for the first three games of the season. This team is likely going to fall into a hole early and have trouble getting out of it unless the three others in the division manage to beat up on each other and allow the Bucs to hang around.
NFC SOUTH ODDS - per BookMaker.eu
New Orleans Saints +150
Atlanta Falcons +173
Carolina Panthers +296
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +995
NFC SOUTH STANDINGS (2017 Season)
Saints 11-5
Panthers 11-5
Falcons 10-6
Buccaneers 5-11
Odds Analysis
Everything seemed to go right for the Saints last year while there were plenty of stumbles for the Falcons, and yet they only finished one game apart in the standings. Brees is a year older and it’s fair to wonder if he’s going to start slowing down at some point. The Saints are a chic pick because of Brees and some young talent, but the Falcons at higher odds are a better choice in NFL betting lines.
Atlanta has a star quarterback in Matt Ryan as well as some great weapons, led by Julio Jones, and a solid offensive line. The offense should take a step forward this year while the defense is good enough to get the job done with a lead.
The Panthers’ odds aren’t favorable enough to choose them, while Tampa Bay is going to finish in last place by a significant amount, so that is not a worthwhile flier. This should end up being a two-team race with the Falcons the pick to win the NFC South even as both they and the Saints make it into the playoffs in NFL gambling.
NFC North ATS Pick: Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South
NFL Futures - Odds to win NFC West
The NFC West has flipped upside down. The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals were the teams to beat in recent years but now have the longest odds to win the division. The Los Angeles Rams are the new power in the division after surprisingly winning it in 2017 and then loading up with talent in the offseason.
The arrival of coach Sean McVay last year kicked off a renaissance and now the Rams are expecting to be Super Bowl contenders. Quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley and defensive tackle Aaron Donald highlight the list of returners, while the team also added Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib to the defense. With all of this talent it is easy to see why the Rams are the prohibitive favorites to claim the division for a second straight year.
The San Francisco 49ers are the toughest team to judge in the division. They struggled for most of last year but played extremely well with Jimmy Garoppolo under center down the stretch after he arrived via trade. Cornerback Richard Sherman and others joined the team in free agency and now San Francisco is aiming to take a big step forward into playoff contention.
The Seattle Seahawks are no longer the team to beat in the West after a fantastic run. Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett are gone from a terrific defense, while safety Earl Thomas is unhappy with his contract and holding out. Seattle still has Russell Wilson and some good players on defense, but it’s hard to imagine the Seahawks being as good as they have been the past few years.
The Arizona Cardinals have extremely long odds to win the division. They made the NFC Championship game in 2015 but haven’t finished above .500 in either of the past two years and now have a new coach in Steve Wilks and a new quarterback in Sam Bradford. The Cardinals’ defense is underrated but the offense will need to play better than expected for the team to be competitive, and they have a tough schedule in NFL betting.
NFC WEST ODDS - per BookMaker.eu
Los Angeles Rams -193
San Francisco 49ers +300
Seattle Seahawks +523
Arizona Cardinals +2027
NFC WEST STANDINGS (2017 Season)
Los Angeles Rams 11-5
Seattle Seahawks 9-7
Arizona Cardinals 8-8
San Francisco 49ers 6-10
Odds Analysis
The Rams are definitely the best team but these odds are pretty tough. Los Angeles may get hit with an injury to a key player which would torpedo the season, something that happened to multiple teams a year ago. If everything goes as expected, the Rams should win the NFC West, but at -193 it’s not a great payoff.
The 49ers might look attractive but they are getting too much credit for the end of last season. Garoppolo looks good but it is still a small sample size and +300 is not enough of a longshot.
The Seahawks and Cardinals are the more attractive bets. While it’s easy to understand while the oddsmakers have made them longshots, each team has more talented players than given credit for. The Rams are the team to beat for a reason but if things don’t go right for Los Angeles, it would open up the door for one of these underdogs to win the division.
The Rams are the pick but it’s best to stay away from them at these odds in NFL gambling.
NFC West ATS Pick: Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC West