NFL Gaming Notes

NFL Gaming Notes - Part II
By Keith Fredrick

Miami Dolphins -­ This team was not as bad as the 1-15 record indicated in 2007, but they were not really good enough to be 11-5 last year either. Still, Tony Sparano and his staff have made the Wildcat a staple throughout the league, and with veteran Chad Pennington at the controls of the regular offense, this does figure to be a team in playoff contention most of the season. I really liked the draft, as while none of the players they selected figures to be a "star" ­ almost all should contribute, and that is a staple of a Bill Parcells draft. When a playoff team adds youth, speed and depth it is usually a very good thing, and that is the case here. The season win total is 7.5, with a HEAVY shade towards the Under as a bunch of the "sharp" money has come in on that. They take the Under since the Dolphins, as alluded to above, did get a bit lucky last year, no doubt, and also because "this year the Dolphins are playing a first place schedule." Forgive the rant here, but that is just ridiculous reasoning. Ever since the Texans came into the league the concept of the "Last Place Schedule" and its counterpart "First Place Schedule" have become obsolete. The fact of the matter is that, where it used to be eight games (HALF!!!) of the schedule was based on how a team finished the previous season, now just TWO games are delineated in such a way, as the other 14 games have been predetermined years in advance and the record the previous year has no bearing on that whatsoever. The impact on season wins is big, as the knee jerk "they will be better since their schedule is easier" no longer applies, and the same is true for a team expected to be worse. There are reasons the Patriots are always good and the Raiders are always bad of late, and much of it is due to the lack of scheduling parity that used to exist in the NFL. Back onto the Dolphins, while I do not think they will win the division again, 9-7 or 8-8 (a three game drop in record) is well within the realm of possibility, and as such a play on the Over is in order.

Minnesota Vikings ­- I hesitate to write this, as Brett Favre might change his mind again, but here goes: The Season Win total on this team is nine, certainly a reasonable number for a team that won ten games and the division crown a year ago. However, have to believe that he line was made with Favre in mind as the starter, and now (seemingly) that will not be the case. Hard for me to forecast how well this team will do in terms of overall wins, as no one knows how many game Adrian Peterson will actually remain healthy for, and also how many games the Tavaris Jackson/Sage Rosenfels combo will screw up. All in all, while this bunch is talented enough to get Over this total and as such I would not play the Under, just not enough trust in them to make an Over play. I will do what this team will not do all that well this year - pass.

New England Patriots -­ Pats were hard luck last year, going 11-5 but missing the playoffs. To get to 11 wins was quite an accomplishment seeing as though star Tom Brady played only a few plays, but all reports are that Brady is healthy now and ready to go, and his health was a big reason the team felt confident enough to let Cassel go to Kansas City. The Pats drafted well, bringing in a lot of players that will help what was already a talented roster. There is every reason to believe the Pats will be the class of the AFC East this year, and plays on them to win the AFC and the Super Bowl make a great deal of sense as well. However, none of those offer great odds, as the Pats are chalk to be sure. They also have the highest season win total ­ 11.5 at most spots ­ and even at that most of the action is coming on the Over. I cannot get involved here, as while I think they could win 12-14 games, just not willing to lay a price to find that out. One final note, and it is in regards to the preseason. This is a VERY deep team, and depth usually means wins in the preseason, as not only are better 3rd and 4th stringers playing weaker ones, but the competition for roster spots is strong, making each play important. I will be surprised if this team does not win at least three preseason games SU, so watch them if they are dogs at all.

New Orleans Saints -­ One of the most enduring images of the 2008 season came on the final play for the Saints, as after the Panthers had driven the length of the field for a game winning FG, then incredibly (on purpose?) kicked out of bounds Drew Brees needed 15 yards for the single season passing record. Getting the ball on the 40 yard line with :01 left, there was clearly confliction on the New Orleans sideline, as while they wanted Brees to get the record, tossing a 15 yard pass would not put them in a position to win the game. So, after a delay of game penalty a compromise was reached, and a 25-yard pattern was called, something that might allow for a miracle pitch or something to get a chance to win it, and thus still have a shot at the playoffs. Carolina was only interested in protecting the goal line, so no pass rush came, and Brees had plenty of time. He threw a perfect strike to Lance Moore, who dropped the pass. Just a shame for Brees, but it showed the real problem with the Saints last year, as this was an incredibly talented team that just made too many mistakes at key times to be truly successful. Cannot see a ton of evidence that things will be different this time around, and that hurts to say, as New Orleans is my second favorite team. Draft was not bad, nor was free agency, but do not see any massive improvements for this team either. This team won eight games last year and the season win total for them this season is 8.5 with a big shade to the Over. I hope they have things figured out this year, and if so the talent dictates a 10 or 11 win season, but will not be getting involved in this one.

N.Y. Giants -­ Super Bowl champs of 2007 season won twelve games a year ago and cruised to the NFC East title, but there are issues in Gotham City. First and foremost, despite being almost universally recognized as being better overall than the Super Bowl winning team, the Giants did not even win a playoff game last year. Much of the blame goes to Plaxico Buress, as his suspension cost the team a major offensive weapon, and while others did step up for one of the games Plax was out, it was clear the offense was just not the same without him, not at all. The G-Men addressed "Life After Plax" by selecting two WR's in the first three rounds of the draft this year, with the highlight being Hakeem Nicks of North Carolina. He has all the tools, but it will likely take him a while to become all of what Burress was for this team. There was not one draft pick I did not like, as the Big Blue haul was one of, if not the, best in the NFL. The season win total on this team is ten, and the only way to look here is Over, as a bet on the Under means a person expect the Giants to be three games worse than they were last year, and I see no reason to support that view. My ticket is on Over 10 @ Even money.

N.Y. Jets ­- "867-5309" -- "Hey Mickey" -- "Tainted Love" - Those were three of the biggest one hit wonders of the 1980's, and while that dates this writer more than I would like to admit, they are relevant to the discussion regarding the Jets, as the team has put all its eggs in the Mark Sanchez basket, and he very well might be a one hit wonder as well. He had an excellent senior year at USC, there is no doubting that, but he only saw the field for three games the previous year, playing behind the not exactly stellar John David Booty. Another reason for potential concern is that, in the game his team needed him most, he was unable to deliver against Oregon State, and that showing cost his team a shot at the national title. Also, Carson Palmer is the only recent USC (starting, see Matt Cassel) QB to have real success in the NFL, so there are lingering questions in that respect as well. One last note about the QB situation is that, even if none of those concerns about Sanchez are legit, the team is still switching from a legend in Brett Favre to a rookie in Sanchez (and no, Kellen Clemens is not winning this job, not after what Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco did last year), and that is going to represent a difference, both on the field and off, as the NY media has swallowed many a rookie whole. The season win total on the J-E-T-S is seven, and that sounds about right to me, so I am going to pass. (The Duchie on the left hand side?)

Oakland Raiders -­ The Raiders were not as bad as most think last year, as while far from "good" with a 5-11 record, that mark was better than six other teams and tied with Jacksonville. They easily could have won a couple of games early in the season to get to six or seven wins, and JaMarcus Russell did show some, albeit painfully slow at times, signs of improvement. The coaching situation has to be better than it was last year, as while Tom Cable is not going to make anyone forget John Madden, he is also not loose cannon Lane Kiffin, and that stability should help. Another thing that could help is the addition of Jeff Garcia. The nomad has come to different teams a lot lately, and the last two times there has been marked improvement. The 2005 Eagles were 6-10 and went 10-6 with Garcia at the helm or most of the season in 2006. The 2006 Bucs were 4-12 but went 9-7 and won the division the next year with Garcia as the starter. That is a combined nine game improvement (10-22 to 19-13) for the last two teams he has taken over. If he beats out Russell the Over on this team deserves a serious look. Sure the draft was bad, it always seems to be, but while I will be passing if Russell wins the gig, if it is Garcia I will have an Over ticket in my wallet for sure, so watch the news out of the Bay closely.

Philadelphia Eagles ­- This team brought in a very good veteran class through trades and free agent signings, with the highlight being Jason Peters. They also had a dynamic and (what should be) ultra productive draft, adding Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy on the first day and strong value picks on the second day. A good case could be made that the Eagles had the best off-season of any team. Remember, this was a team that was in the NFC Championship Game a last year, and they have gotten measurably better! Even though the Eagles only won nine games last year, was really surprised to see a season total of less than double digits for the Green Birds, as it is 9.5 at most spots, with a shade towards the Over. I noted above that I think Dallas will suffer a drop off, and that helps the Over on the Eagles as well, and also note that they did not "lose" seven games last year, as the Cincy game ended in a tie, dubiously for McNabb. Real good reasons for both the Giants and Eagles to win more than ten games this season, and like I do for Big Blue, I have a ticket on the Philly Over already.

Pittsburgh Steelers -­ If not for two humongous plays, the Steelers would not have won the Super Bowl last year. If either James Harrison's heroics at the end of the half or Santonio Holmes' great catch in the final minute do not happen then it is the Cardinals as NFL champs last year, and the public perception of each team coming into this season would be much different. As it stands, the Steelers' season win total is 10.5 after winning a dozen games a year ago, showing that the Vegas line makers think the Black and Gold will be a little bit worse this season. The "sharps" agree, as the money is coming in towards the Under. There was nothing overwhelming about the Steeler draft or free agent signings, and the recent off the field distractions regarding Ben Roethlisberger cannot help the situation, but while the Under would be my lean, I respect this team far too much to underestimate them, and as such I am not going to get involved here in regards to the season wins.

St Louis Rams -­ Sometimes a man has to know his limitations, and I freely admit mine in regards to this Rams team. The last time - at least it seems like the last time - I was right on this bunch was the 2001 season when I just UNLOADED, and I mean UNLOADED on a bet on the Rams -3.5 over the Vikings late in the season. It was an easy as they come winner, but one I have been slowly paying back ever since. After years of being stubborn I made a change in 2007, instituting a self-embargo on betting on Rams games, and thus giving them out to clients. I have stayed the course of that embargo, and will not be involved with a ticket in my hand on any of their preseason or regular season games this year. With that backdrop, will let you know that I REALLY like what the Rams did in the draft, as Smith and Luaranitis will be stars, and as long as Marc Bulger is able to stay healthy have to expect the point production will improve. Also improved will be coaching, as Scott Linehan had all the wrong stuff and new head man Spagnuolo seems to be the exact opposite. St Louis was 2-14 last year and absolutely will improve, but with a season win total of 5.5 they are going to have to improve four games to notch an Over, and that might be a little much. Would not take the Under either, so this is a No Play.

San Diego Chargers -­ There are lots, LOTS, of Chargers fans that come to Vegas every weekend, and as such the line makers have to made adjustments in the Charger "Futures" type lines, and season wins fit into that category. Not surprising then that the Bolts are the third team listed (behind Super Bowl Champ Steelers and Uber Public Pats) on most every "Season Wins" sheet in town, and that one Sportsbook Director of a locals oriented casino tells me that "San Diego Over 10" is by far the most popular bet of the season in pure ticket count, even though the actual amount of money wagered dwarfs that of some of the more popular plays that have elicited "sharp" play. This is a very talented team to be sure, but one that seems to find a way to mess things up at every opportunity. Part of the problem is Norv Turner, no doubt, as a team with this much talent should never sniff 8-8 (and need a four-game winning streak to get even that good), but the players have to at least share the blame, as they continually underperform. I like, do not love, what the Chargers did in the draft, and while they are heavy favs to win the division, you can read above that I think Oakland and Denver are better than given credit for this season. I probably will not bet this team¹s season wins, but if I did the only way I could go was Under. Maybe waiting for even more square action to come in on the Over, and then taking a better price in the Under, is the best course of action.

San Francisco 49ers - Every year one team gets a ton, a ton, of public acclaim as the "surprise team" of the season and usually falls flat on its face. For years it was the Cardinals, who consistently were touted to make a breakthrough only to falter, and then last year, amid lower expectations, they actually had a great season. Last summer the unquestioned "Smoke Up Your A$$" team was the Browns, and we all know how that trained wreck turned out. This year, while there is not one overwhelming team getting all the pub, the Niners certainly are getting a lot of it, and this same Sportsbook Director of a locals oriented casino tells me that the Niners are the fifth choice (in ticket count) to win the NFC and among the Top Ten in Super Bowl ticket count. It will be interesting to see if the Niners can avoid the jinx of high expectations in a division with the defending NFC champs, an improved Seattle team, and a Rams team that almost cannot help but be better. The Niners won seven games a year ago, their Season Win number is seven this year, and my projections are for seven wins. So, to paraphrase Coach Singletary: "Can't do it, I won't do it." ­ Pass!

Seattle Seahawks -­ Before getting to this team's outlook, must stop to pause and wonder if Charlie Frye and Mike Teel will get together in training camp, as that white hot battle for the third string job heats up, and try and devise some sort of friendly wager to grade which will make the most stupid decisions while logging time in preseason games. Both of these two can throw the ball a mile, but both might struggle with some of the mental calisthenics my six-year-old daughter works through every day in first grade. I can hear Jim Mora Jr. now: "Charlie, Mike ­ we are wearing white jerseys on offense today, so try to throw it to the guys in the SAME jerseys. Okay, go get em!" If either of these ever has to play, run for the hills Seahawk fans. My disdain for the reserve QB¹s aside, this is a team that can make some noise this season, as they suffered through a bad luck 4-12 season a year ago that was littered with injuries, and one has to expect better things this time around. If healthy, this is a talented that that added solid depth ­ as well as some serious star power in Aaron Curry ­ in the draft, making them a formidable foe. The Season Wins number on the Hawks is 7.5 with a strong shade to the Over (from -145 to -170 depending on where you shop), and while that price will keep me from making a big bet on the Over, that is the only way I would go with this team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ­- This was my first bet of the season, as I had the Under circled, and then was circling, waiting for one of the books here in town to open up the prop. Actually got down right after somebody else, with the same opinion, hit the Under first, but I still have Under 6.5 at a pretty nice number, and I am real confident on this play. Not only is new coach Raheem Morris changing schemes on both sides of the ball, the team has had a coaching staff exodus of massive proportions, and it is going to take a while for things to settle in. By the time that happens, this team might be 1-5 or worse, and if that is the case then there is going to be a groundswell of sentiment to start top draftee Josh Freeman to see what the team has. I am not a massive Freeman fan, as while he had a solid career at Kansas State and has a pure cannon for an arm, cannot shake the facts that he had his career game in a 20-point loss (450+ yards against Oklahoma last year) and did not lead his team to a bowl, posting just a 10-14 record. Maybe he will be great and the faith the team put in him when trading for his rights will be justified, but even if that does happen I cannot see it happening soon enough for him to have a positive effect on the season wins this year. Tampa won nine games a year ago but I will be stunned if they win five this season, especially in a very tough division. The Under here is my strongest Season Wins play of the year, and still has value even now, as the price (-140 or so in most spots) is still well within the playable range.

Tennessee Titans ­- I just love, LOVE, what the Titans did in the draft this year, as they got good players with their first seven picks and added some project type guys in the later rounds that could end up helping out long term. Remember, this team WAS 13-3 last year and now they are better! Sure, there is the QB issue with Kerry Collins and Vince Young, but Jeff Fisher is one of the smartest in the game, and he will find a way to make things work, and if ever there was a player fit for a role, Vince Young in a "Wildcat" type, change of pace offense could be virtually unstoppable. After a 13-win season the Total Wins line for this team is 9.5 with a generous shade to the Under, and as you may have guessed, I think the Over is the way to play here, very much so. In fact, this is my second strongest season wins play of the year behind the Bucs Under. In truth, I like both of them equally, but when in a situation like that I always put a little more on the team I like to go Under, as injuries can affect an Over play much more so than an Under play, as in fact a key injury actually helps an Under player. Back to the Titans, note that for them to go Under the 9.5 mark they are going to have to regress four full games from last year, and such a regression has happened just twice in Jeff Fisher¹s fourteen year career, and thrice he has followed up double digit win seasons with at least as good or better records the next season. (In the interest of full disclosure, he has never had three straight double digit win seasons, another reason the Bucs play is a bit stronger than the Titans!) With the draft haul in mind ­especially top draftee Kenny Britt, a potential star at WR that this team has not had in ages - I cannot see Tennessee with less than ten wins this season, and most of my projections show them with 11 or 12. For the record, I have also played the Titans to win the AFC South at 3-1, the AFC at 8-1, and the Super Bowl at 15-1.

Washington Redskins -­ The Redskins finished 8-8 last year and missed the playoffs in the first year of the Jim Zorn era. Things started out great (Hip Hip Hooray!) for the team but things did turn sour late in the year, but owner Daniel Snyder managed to restrain himself and not fire Zorn. That was a good thing, especially for QB Jason Campbell, who might finals get some stability, although he has to be wondering about his future after the team openly courted Jay Cutler in the off season. The draft was nothing special, as while top choice Brian Orakpo was a sack machine at Texas, after him not much help was brought in, especially on the O-line where all involved would have preferred to get better. This looks like another middling season for the Skins, and the Season Wins total reflects that as well, as it is eight. Sounds about right to me, so no action on the last team on the list.