NFL home dogs winning 66 percent ATS
By: Michael Hill
A trend that we have been following all year proved to be profitable once again in Week 5 when home underdogs went 3-1 both ATS and SU. That pushes the records of home underdogs to an exceptional 19-10-1 (66%) ATS and 17-13 (57%) SU on the season.
Washington (+3) edged Green Bay 16-13 in overtime, Oakland (+7) knocked off San Diego 35-27, and Arizona (+6.5) downed New Orleans 30-20 with the help of three defensive touchdowns. The only home ‘dog to be defeated in Week 5 was Cleveland, which dropped a 20-10 decision to Atlanta.
The early lines for Week 6 show four home underdogs (with Denver hosting the Jets a likely fifth home underdog). Here are the four matchups, along with some information from the FoxSheets which make a case for each of the home ‘dogs:
San Diego at St. Louis (+8.5)
• The Chargers have been favored in all three of their road games this season and they are 0-3 both ATS and SU (Kansas City, Seattle, Oakland).
• The Rams are 2-1 both ATS and SU as a home underdog this season.
• Play On - Any team (St. Louis) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game, after the first month of the season. (49-19 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.1%, +28.1 units. Rating = 3*).
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5)
• Since barely covering the 4.5 spread in its opening night win over Minnesota (N.O. won by five), the Saints have gone 0-4 ATS. Play Against - Favorites (New Orleans) - after failing to cover the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (33-11 over the last 10 seasons.) (75%, +20.9 units. Rating = 2*).
• The Saints continue to be overvalued based on the fact that they are the reigning Super Bowl champs. Their offense just isn’t as potent as it was a year ago. The Saints have yet to score more than 25 points in any game this season after doing so in 12 of their first 13 games a year ago. In its 19 games last year (including playoffs), the Saints scored 30-plus on 12 occasions, including five games in which they scored over 40.
Indianapolis at Washington (+3)
• The Colts have lost twice as road favorites already this year (Houston and Jacksonville), while the Redskins already boast a pair of victories as home underdogs (Dallas and Green Bay).
• Play Against - Favorites (Indianapolis) - after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games against opponent after being outrushed by 100 or more yards last game. (34-10 since 1983.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*).
• Play Against - Road teams (Indianapolis) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against an average defensive team (18-23 PPG). (24-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 3*).
Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3)
• The Jaguars have won two straight games as underdogs (vs. Indianapolis, at Buffalo) while the Titans have lost two straight games as favorites (vs. Denver, vs. Pittsburgh).
• Play Against - Road teams (Tennessee) - off an upset win as an underdog, with a winning record on the season. (231-149 since 1983.) (60.8%, +67.1 units. Rating = 2*).