NFL Monday's Tip Sheet

Monday's Tip Sheet
December 24, 2017
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Steelers (-9, 45) at Texans – 4:30 PM EST – NBC

LAST WEEK

In the overturned catch heard ‘round the world, the Steelers (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS) went from potentially having home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs to potentially receiving only a first-round bye. Ben Roethlisberger hooked up with tight end Jesse James on a touchdown in the final minute against New England, but the ruling was reversed and called an incomplete pass. Roethlisberger would eventually get intercepted in the end zone as the Steelers fell to the Patriots for the fifth straight time, 27-24.

The loss ended an eight-game winning streak for Mike Tomlin’s club, who has already clinched the AFC North title. To make matters worse, the Steelers also lost star wide receiver Antonio Brown to a calf injury in the first half, as he will be sidelined until the playoffs. Running back Le’Veon Bell rushed for 117 yards and a touchdown, marking his first 100-yard rushing game since Week 7 against Cincinnati. Pittsburgh failed to cover for the fourth consecutive game, while falling to 2-4 ATS in its past six home contests.

The Texans (4-10 SU, 7-7 ATS) were due to fall apart following the season-ending knee injury to rookie standout quarterback Deshaun Watson in late October. Houston has lost six of seven games since Watson’s injury, including a 45-7 rout at the hands of Jacksonville as 10 ½-point underdogs. In all six losses without Watson, the Texans have mustered 16 points or fewer, while posting seven points in a game for the third time this season.

Houston put up 186 yards of offense against a terrific Jacksonville team, who limited the Texans to 14 points in eight quarters. Quarterback T.J. Yates completed 12-of-31 passes for 128 yards, one touchdown, and an interception for Houston as he hooked up wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the lone Texans’ touchdown. Houston owns a 1-4 record inside the AFC South as the Texans scored 57 points against the Titans in Week 4, but compiled a total of 41 points in the four divisional defeats.

SERIES HISTORY

The Steelers and Texans are meeting for the sixth time ever as Pittsburgh owns a 3-2 edge. These clubs haven’t met since 2014 at Heinz Field as the Steelers rallied from a 13-0 deficit to beat the Texans, 30-23 to cash as three-point favorites. Roethlisberger threw for 265 yards and two touchdowns, while Bell racked up 145 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. Pittsburgh lost in its last visit to Houston in 2011 as four-point underdogs, 17-10.

TOTAL TALK

Pittsburgh and New England barely finished UNDER the total of 52 ½ last week, snapping a four-game OVER streak for the Steelers. However, the Steelers have gone 6-1 to the UNDER away from Heinz Field as the lone OVER occurred in a 23-20 win at Cincinnati on a 42 ½ total. Houston was riding a three-game UNDER streak prior to the OVER against Jacksonville last Sunday. The UNDER is 5-2 the past seven weeks for the Texans, while going 2-1 to the UNDER against AFC North competition.

KEY TREND

VegasInsider.com handicapper Vince Akins provides a solid UNDER trend on the visitors, “The Steelers are 0-9-1 OU since Jan 09, 2016 on the road in games with a total under 46.” Five of those UNDERS have hit this season, while holding four of those opponents to 20 points or fewer.

BOOKMAKER’S TAKE

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu gives his thoughts on where the money is going, “We’re currently looking at 75 percent of the tickets on the Steelers, but the handle is almost 50-50. The public obviously loves Pittsburgh while the wiseguys are siding with Houston. We know that this team always plays down to the competition and with little to play for, Houston feels like a live dog.”

Raiders at Eagles (-9 ½, 46 ½) – 8:30 PM EST – ESPN

LAST WEEK

Oakland (6-8 SU, 4-8-2 ATS) was eliminated from playoff contention following Kansas City’s victory over Miami on Sunday as the Raiders last made the postseason in consecutive years from 2000-02. The Raiders fell short against the Cowboys last Sunday, 20-17 as quarterback Derek Carr fumbled the ball in the final minutes when reaching out for the go-ahead touchdown, resulting in a touchback. When Oakland doesn’t score, they lose, as the Raiders dropped to 0-8 when scoring 17 points or fewer this season.

The Raiders pushed as three-point home underdogs, as Carr threw for 177 yards and two touchdowns to Michael Crabtree. However, Oakland suffered its first loss at the Coliseum since Week 6 against the Chargers, while dropping its fourth consecutive game in the underdog role. The Raiders lost for the second time in three tries against NFC East foes, one season after compiling a 3-1 record against teams from the NFC South.

The Eagles (12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS) picked up a victory in their first game without MVP candidate Carson Wentz as Nick Foles stepped in to toss four touchdown passes in a 34-29 triumph over the Giants. Philadelphia failed to cash as 7 ½-point road favorites, as Foles hooked up with four different receivers for scores, while improving to 6-2 on the highway in its final regular season road game.

Since a 1-2 ATS start, the Eagles have covered nine of their last 11 games, including five consecutive covers at Lincoln Financial Field. The victory over the Giants wrapped up a four-in-five game stretch of road contests, as Philadelphia has played only one home contest since the bye in Week 10.

SERIES HISTORY

These teams met in Super Bowl XV in New Orleans as the Raiders crushed the Eagles, 27-10 in January 1981. Fast-forwarding to present day, Philadelphia ripped Oakland in its previous matchup, 49-20 in 2013 at the Coliseum. Foles had his breakout game in his first stint with Philadelphia by tossing seven touchdown passes and 406 yards, while the only current Eagle to score a touchdown in that game was tight end Zach Ertz. The Raiders are making their first trip to Philadelphia since 2005 as Oakland covered as nine-point underdogs in a 23-20 defeat.

TOTAL TALK

The Raiders are riding a five-game UNDER streak, although only one of those UNDERS came away from the Black Hole. The UNDER is 4-2 in Oakland’s six road games, while scoring 15 points or less in four of those contests. The Eagles hit three consecutive UNDERS following their bye, but are currently on a two-game OVER streak. There hasn’t been any solid trends for Philadelphia at home as they have hit the UNDER three times and the OVER three times at Lincoln Financial Field.

KEY TREND

Akins supplies a trend that supports Philadelphia, “The Eagles are 13-0 ATS since Nov 23, 2014 when each of their last two games have gone over the total.” Two of those victories came this season by 27 and 23 points at home.

BOOKMAKER’S TAKE

Cooley of BookMaker.eu checks in on the night action, “Both sides of the betting spectrum on Philadelphia in this one, which moved the number to double digits. The heavy smart money is on the UNDER, where we have nearly 80 percent of the action. We’re hoping the Raiders can find some sort of motivation to compete in this one.”