New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
The New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at Rogers Centre.
Oddsmakers currently have the Jets listed as 3-point favorites versus the Bills, while the game's total is sitting at 37.
The Jets defeated Carolina 17-6 as a 4-point favorite in Week 12. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (41.5).
Thomas Jones rushed for 75 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries for the Jets and Mark Sanchez passed for 154 yard with an interception
The Bills defeated Miami 31-14 as a 3-point underdog in Week 12. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (38.5).
Fred Jackson rushed for 73 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 15 carries for Buffalo, while Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 246 yards with a touchdown, an interception and a TD run in the win.
Team records:
New York: 5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS
Buffalo: 4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing in December are 4-6
When playing on turf are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When favored on the road are 4-6
Buffalo most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on turf are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When an underdog at home are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games
NY Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Next up:
NY Jets at Tampa Bay, Sunday, December 13
Buffalo at Kansas City, Sunday, December 13
Oregon State Beavers vs. Oregon Ducks
The Oregon State Beavers and the Oregon Ducks will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at Autzen Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Ducks listed as 9½-point favorites versus the Beavers, while the game's total is sitting at 63.
Sean Canfield tossed a pair of touchdown strikes in Week 12 as Oregon State rolled to a 42-10 win over Washington State.
The Beavers managed to cover the big 31-point spread posted for that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the day's posted total (56).
Jeremiah Masoli ran for the winning touchdown in double overtime to give Oregon a 44-41 win over Arizona in Week 12. Oregon failed to cover the 5.5-point spread, while the 85 points sailed OVER the posted total of 60.
Masoli completed 26-of-45 for 283 yards with three touchdowns, while rushing for 62 yards and three touchdowns in the win.
Current streak:
Oregon State has won 4 straight games.
Oregon has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Oregon State: 8-3 SU, 6-4 ATS
Oregon: 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS
Oregon State most recently:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the conference are 7-3
Oregon most recently:
When playing in December are 5-4-1
When playing on turf are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing within the conference are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon State's last 5 games when playing Oregon
Oregon State is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Oregon State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Oregon State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon's last 5 games when playing Oregon State
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will both be trying to pick up a win on Thursday when they battle at L.T. Smith Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Red Wolves listed as 6-point favorites versus the Hilltoppers, while the game's total is sitting at 51½.
Arkansas State held on to beat North Texas 30-26 in Week 13.
The Red Wolves failed to cover the 7.5-point spread, while the final score played OVER the posted total of 55.5.
Western Kentucky was downed 29-23 by Sun Belt rival Florida Atlantic at Lockhart Stadium in Week 13.
Western Kentucky covered as a 13-point road underdog while the final score played UNDER the 66-point total.
Current streak:
Western Kentucky has lost 11 straight games.
Team records:
Arkansas State: 3-8 SU, 2-8 ATS
Western Kentucky: 0-11 SU, 5-5 ATS
Arkansas State most recently:
When playing in December are 0-2
When playing on turf are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the conference are 4-6
Western Kentucky most recently:
When playing in December are 0-1
When playing on turf are 0-10
After being outgained are 0-10
When playing within the conference are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Arkansas State's last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arkansas State's last 7 games
Arkansas State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Arkansas State is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Western Kentucky is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Western Kentucky is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY JETS (5 - 6) vs. BUFFALO (4 - 7)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 4-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OREGON ST (8 - 3) at OREGON (9 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
OREGON ST is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
OREGON ST is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
OREGON ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
OREGON is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
OREGON is 1-1 against the spread versus OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
OREGON is 1-1 straight up against OREGON ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST (3 - 8) at W KENTUCKY (0 - 11)
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
ARKANSAS ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
ARKANSAS ST is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
ARKANSAS ST is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a road favorite since 1992.
ARKANSAS ST is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
ARKANSAS ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games
OREGON STATE vs. OREGON
Oregon State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Oregon State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Oregon is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oregon State
Oregon is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oregon State
ARKANSAS STATE vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Arkansas State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Arkansas State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Western Kentucky is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Western Kentucky is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY JETS at BUFFALO (played at Rogers Centre in Toronto)
NY JETS: 83-59 Under off an Under
BUFFALO: 8-20 ATS off DD division win
OREGON ST at OREGON
OREGON ST: 19-8 ATS off bye week
OREGON: 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points
ARKANSAS ST at W KENTUCKY
ARKANSAS ST: 1-10 ATS as road favorite
W KENTUCKY: 7-1 Under off an Under
Bills vs. Jets Preview
By Chris David
Will 10-6 earn you a playoff spot in the AFC?
Head coach Rex Ryan and the New York Jets (5-6 straight up, 5-6 against the spread) certainly hope so.
New York trails the Steelers, Jaguars and Ravens by one game for the last Wild Card spot with five games left. Winning out is tough for any team, especially when you have to play three on the road.
Actually, it’s closer to two road games since Thursday’s battle against Buffalo (4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS) will be played on a neutral field. The two divisional foes will square off from Toronto inside Rogers Centre. The Bills will be playing their second game in a series of five regular season home games to be played at this venue. Last year, Buffalo lost to Miami 16-3 in the first installment of the five-game series that will continue through the 2012 regular season.
The purpose of the game was to lure some of the Canadian fans into cheering for the Bills but a large majority of the attendance in last year’s turnout were cheering for the Dolphins.
Oddsmakers at Bodog.com have made the Jets three-point favorites for Thursday. New York has gone 2-3 both SU and ATS on the road this year, but is just 1-1 both SU and ATS as road favorites.
VegasInsider.com expert Matt Fargo believes the number is fair. He explains, “It has been a trying season for the Jets and their fans as four of their losses were not decided until the last possession of the game. They were thumped at New Orleans which is no surprise since every team is and also thumped at New England which was a revenge situation as well as a game coming off a loss for the Patriots. Despite going 2-4 in the last six games, New York has won the stat battle in four of those games and on the season. Conversely the Bills are minus 81.5 yards in differential on the season and that is a pretty big swing.”
The Jets will also be looking to avenge a 16-13 overtime loss to the Bills on Oct. 18. New York racked up 414 yards on offense, including 318 on the ground yet the team had 14 penalties and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez was intercepted five times.
Since that setback, New York has gone 2-3 both SU and ATS, which includes a 17-6 victory against Carolina last Sunday. The offense did nothing special in the win but the defense held the Panthers to 179 total yards and they picked off Jake Delhomme four times, including one that was taken to the house by defensive back Darrelle Revis. The six points given up was surprising, considering the team gave up 24 and 31 in their two previous outings, both losses.
The Jets’ offense might be tempered again this week when they face a Buffalo team that has been rejuvenated under interim head coach Perry Fewell. The Bills don’t have any chances of making the postseason but last week’s 31-14 home victory against Miami showed the locals at Orchard Park that they aren’t quitting. Looking back two weeks, you can see the team played hard in an 18-15 loss at Jacksonville and they had a chance to tie or win near the end of the game.
Buffalo posted 24 points in the second-half against Miami and 14 of them came when the game was all but over. The team didn’t consider the actions unsportsmanlike, considering the Dolphins destroyed the Bills 38-10 in their earlier meeting. Similar to the Jets, the Bills' defense was also opportunistic last Sunday, tallying four interceptions against the Dolphins.
Even though Buffalo's offense exploded late, gamblers might be a little hesitant backing QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (54.5%, 7 INTs, 4 TDs) in the long run. The question circling this game is do you put your money on Fitzpatrick or Sanchez? It's understood that Ryan is going to handcuff the rookie out of USC, which is what we saw last week.
However, that isn't the case for Fewell and Fitzy. In the last two weeks, he's attempted 31 and 26 passes, plus he's connected on two long bombs (98, 51) with Terrell Owens during this stretch. Keep in mind that the Bills are only converting 27% on third downs this year, which is ranked 31st in the league. The more chances you give Fitzy, the more prone he is too mistakes.
Defensively, Ryan and his troop are ranked second in total defense (283 YPG), while the Bills are allowing 362 YPG. The biggest weakness with Buffalo's defense is their inability to stop the run, which is giving up a league-worst 165 YPG.
The total on Thursday's tilt is sitting at 37, which has been consistent with the previous head-to-head meetings. Looking at the past two seasons, its been all about sweeps with the Jets and Bills. In 2007, Buffalo won both regular season battles and the 'under' cashed in each as well. Last year, New York went 2-0 (1-1 ATS) and the 'over' went 2-0. With Buffalo winning back in October and the contest going 'under', should we expect the same in the second go 'round?
After this game, the Jets stay on the road next week with a trip to Tampa Bay. The Bills leave town as well, for a battle at Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs.
NFL Network will provide national coverage at 8:20 p.m. EST.
Thursday Night Trends
# The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 on Thursday this year
# The home team is 5-1 on Thursday's this season
# Favorites have gone 4-2 SU but 3-3 ATS on Thursday
What Bettors Need To Know: NY Jets at Buffalo Bills
By SCOTT COOLEY
The Rogers Centre is the place to be Thursday in Toronto when the Buffalo Bills call the stadium home for a divisional game against the New York Jets.
Both teams snapped three-game losing streaks last week, but remain outside the playoff picture.
Whose line is it anyway?
The line opened at 3-even in favor of the Jets with a total of 37.
Senior oddsmaker with the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Mike Seba, told Covers.com on Monday that the location of the game as well as the audience influenced the numbers.
“If they are playing in Buffalo you are going to give [the Bills] 3 or 3.5 points, but here you are going to give them 2 points at the most,” Seba said. “It’s also a different crowd. This is more of a high-dollar crowd; this isn’t your lunch pail Buffalo Bills fan so you are going to discount the home field (advantage) for that.”
Cool your Jets
New York is coming off a gritty 17-6 win over the Panthers and can’t afford any more losses if it wants to stay in the playoff hunt.
The Jets love to pound the rock, leading the league in rushing attempts (389) and ranking second in rushing offense (161.3 ypg). Veteran back Thomas Jones spearheads that ground attack and rumbled for a career-high 210 yards on 22 carries against the Bills in Week 6.
Rex Ryan’s offense is completely one-sided however. Gang Green ranks No. 30 in passing offense, posting a paltry 176.8 ypg.
This disparity is likely a result of the offensive game plan not wanting to put too much pressure on Mark Sanchez. In the Jets’ 16-13 overtime loss to the Bills earlier this year, Sanchez had the worst game of his young career after completing only 10-of-29 passes for 119 yards and five interceptions.
“We played these guys down to the wire and we gave up the ball six times,” said Sanchez. “Without those interceptions you’d think we win the game. That’s the way we need to play – mistake-free.”
Foot the Bills
The first Bills Toronto Series game was held at the Rogers Centre in 2008, and Buffalo lost to the Dolphins, 16-3, as 1-point favorites.
Buffalo essentially needs to win out to have a chance of playing an extended season and if they don’t, 2009 will be 10th straight year the Bills will be absent from the playoffs.
The Bills have the worst rush defense in the NFL, surrendering 165.1 ypg and a total of 16 touchdowns on the ground. The Jets churned up 318 rushing yards against Buffalo in Week 6.
Give me Fewell, give me fire
Since Dick Jauron was fired on Nov. 15, interim head coach Perry Fewell has made some personnel changes.
Fred Jackson has supplanted Marshawn Lynch as Buffalo’s starting tailback. Last week Lynch totaled three carries for six yards while Jackson ran the rock 15 times for 73 yards and a pair of scores.
“I made that decision during the course of the week just watching us practice, watching our tempo,” said Fewell, who hasn’t publicly named Jackson the starter. “Fred has been very productive for us. It was just a gut feeling.”
Another lineup change Fewell implemented was benching quarterback Trent Edwards in favor of journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. In four games as the starter this season, the Harvard grad has led the Bills to a 2-2 record, going 3-1 against the spread.
Fewell provided one of best postgame quotes of the season after beating the Dolphins last Sunday. His remark was in regards to an audible called by Fitzpatrick that resulted in a 51-yard touchdown strike to Terrell Owens.
"I love it," Fewell said. "I told him, 'You have some big gonads.'''
Bucking the trends
The Jets offense tends to freeze in the month of December. The team has gone 0-5 ATS in its last five December games with the total going under in seven of the team’s last eight December contests.
The number 13 has been lucky for the Bills in recent years with the team going 6-1 ATS in their last seven Week 13 games. The total has gone over 10 times in Buffalo’s last 13 Week 13 games.
New York is 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings of this series while the underdog has cashed in 20 of the last 27 games.
Game Of The Day: Oregon State at Oregon
By Marc Lawrence
The Civil War takes on great importance when No. 8 Oregon hosts No. 16 Oregon State at Autzen Stadium in Eugene Thursday night. That’s because the winner of Thursday’s contest will represent the Pac- 10 in this year’s Rose Bowl.
Game time temperature will be in the low-40’s with a 10 percent chance of rain, winds 5 MPH out of the south.
Deja Vu
Last year when these two rivals met in Corvallis, the Beavers needed a win to advance to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1965.
Installed as 3-point home chalk, Oregon State suffered its most disappointing loss in school history, allowing the most points in any game under head coach Mike Riley, in a 65-38 setback. The Beavers allowed 694 yards of offense to the Ducks.
Ironically, OSU blanked Pittsburgh, 3-0, in the Sun Bowl a month later.
Oregon State’s coaches have tried to downplay the revenge factor, but there is no denying the fans and most of the players are salivating at their chance to inflict the same pain on the Ducks that they endured a season ago.
Meanwhile, a win by the Ducks puts them in their first Rose Bowl since 1995.
The bottom line: for the first time in 113 meetings between these two rivals, the winner is guaranteed a Rose Bowl bid.
Duck droppings
Thanks to the trickiest offense in the conference, one geared around speed and misdirection, the Ducks have scored at least 42 points in all seven of QB Jeremiah Masoli's Pac-10 starts this season (he missed the UCLA game).
Running back LaMichael James, filling in most of the year for suspended RB LeGarrette Blount, has been a nice surprise. The redshirt freshman has rushed for over 100 yards in eight of the past nine games, with the only exception being when his day ended early (13 carries, 81 yards) in a rout of Washington State. James is elusive and is a perfect fit for Oregon's tricky option attack.
Oregon's last Pac-10 title was in 2001. Led by All-Pac-10 QB Joey Harrington, the Ducks couldn't go to the Rose Bowl that year because that was the bowl's turn to host the BCS national championship game (between Miami and Nebraska). Instead, the Ducks ended up playing in the Fiesta Bowl and beating Colorado.
Beaver fever
Oregon State’s strength is its rushing defense, allowing 98.5 yards per game. The Beavers enter this game with wins in six of their last seven games with the only loss a six-point setback at USC (as 21-point underdogs).
OSU has turned the ball over only eight times this season. The offense is led by QB Sean Canfield, who leads the Pac-10 in passing yardage. His completion percentage of .703 is nearing the league record of .707.
Dynamic RB Quizz Rodgers has rushed for 1313 yards and 19 TD’s. His 120 points scored is 12 points short of the school record.
Wide receiver James Rodgers, Quizz’ brother, has 1910 all-purpose yards, which leads the Pac-10 and puts him within 95 yards of the OSU record (2015). James also leads the conference with 77 receptions.
What have you done for me lately?
Oregon has allowed 113 points in its last three games. The Ducks allowed 137 points in their first eight games.
Oregon State allowed 28 PPG in its first four conference games this season. They have allowed 16 PPG in the last four Pac-10 contests.
Coach speak
First-year Oregon coach Chip Kelly continues to downplay the importance of this game and the fact that this will be the first time in the history of the Civil War that each team has Rose Bowl hopes on the line.
"That's got nothing to do with us," Kelly told reporters. "Every game for us is the biggest game we play. Every game for us is like the Super Bowl. We don't need anybody to tell us how important this football game is. We practice the same for Purdue as we do for Oregon State. Every game we play is the most important one."
Looking back
OSU head coach Mike Riley is 14-6 SU and ATS when his team plays with rest, including 7-1 SU and ATS the last eight regular season games.
Riley is also 9-3 ATS as a dog with conference revenge.
Oregon is 12-9 SU but only 7-14 ATS the last 21 games in this series, including 3-1 SU and ATS when the Beavers own a win percentage of .700 or greater.
N.Y. Jets (5-6 SU and ATS) vs. Buffalo (4-7, 6-5 ATS)
(at Toronto)
The Bills and Jets head north of the border to the Rogers Centre for an AFC East clash, the second straight year that Buffalo has played a “home” game in Toronto.
Buffalo came up with a 24-point fourth quarter to erase a 14-7 deficit and whip Miami 31-14 Sunday as a 3½-point home pup. The Bills ended a three-game SU skid and have cashed in both their games under interim coach Perry Fewell, with Sunday’s effort marking their second-highest scoring output of the year. Prior to Sunday, Buffalo scored 20 points or less in eight straight games, including 15 points or less five times. Also, the defense has come to play in two games under Fewell, allowing 18 and 14 points after yielding a combined 72 points the previous two weeks in losses to Houston and Tennessee.
New York halted a three-game SU and ATS slide by topping Carolina 17-6 as a 3½-point home favorite Sunday, winning and covering for just the second time in the last eight games. The Jets field the NFL’s second-best total defense (283.9 ypg) and only allow 17.7 ppg (sixth), but their offense has produced 22 points or less in three straight games and six of 11 this year. Also, New York’s minus-5 turnover ratio rates 26th in the NFL.
Buffalo upended New York 16-13 in overtime on Oct. 18 as a 9½-point road underdog, picking off Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez five times, as the Bills won despite getting gashed for 318 rushing yards. Buffalo is now 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes in this rivalry. The road team has covered in the last four meetings, the underdog is on a 20-7 ATS run, and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 matchups.
The SU winner has cashed in New York’s last 13 games dating to last season and nine of Buffalo’s last 10 contests.
The Bills are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 starts against losing teams, but they are on ATS skids of 1-6 following a SU win and 0-4 as a pup of three points or less. The Jets’ current 2-6 SU and ATS purge is accompanied by pointspread slides of 0-5 in December, 0-4 in the division, 1-5 versus the AFC, 3-9 as a favorite and 6-14-1 against losing teams.
The under for Buffalo is on runs of 5-2 overall and 6-0 after a SU win, and the under has hit in seven of New York’s last eight December games. On the flip side, the over is 15-7 in the Bills’ last 22 December outings, and the over for the Jets is on upticks of 3-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 in the AFC and 5-2 from the favorite’s role.
In this rivalry, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings overall. Also, all five Thursday NFL contests this season – including last week’s trio of Thanksgiving games – have stayed under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and UNDER
(13) Oregon State (8-3, 6-4 ATS) at (7) Oregon (9-2, 7-4 ATS)
Oregon State and Oregon meet in the 113th edition of the annual Civil War battle, and for the first time in series history, the winner will claim the Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl berth.
Both teams were idle last week following victories on Nov. 21 that kept their conference championship hopes alive. Oregon State took down Washington State 42-10, barely covering as a 31-point road favorite, while the Ducks rallied from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit at Arizona, getting a touchdown with six seconds remaining to force overtime, then prevailed 44-41 in the second overtime, coming up short as a six-point road chalk.
Oregon (7-1, 6-2 ATS) is alone atop the conference standings, one game ahead of the Beavers (6-2 SU and ATS). Oregon is trying to claim its first outright league title and Rose Bowl trip since 1994, while the Beavers haven’t played in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day since 1964. Since then, Oregon State has only once managed a share of the conference championship, and that was in 2000.
Oregon State enters this game having won four in a row (3-1 ATS) and six of its last seven (both SU and ATS), a run that has occurred entirely in conference action. During this seven-game stretch, Oregon has scored at least 26 points in every game, averaging 35.6 points per outing, while holding five of the seven opponents to 21 points or less. Take away the one loss – 42-36 at USC – and Oregon State has surrendered just 18.2 ppg in its last five wins.
The Ducks have won nine of 10 games since a disappointing 19-8 loss at Oregon to start the season, and they’ve scored 31 or more points in nine of the last 10, including tallying between 42 and 47 points in their last five contests (44 ppg). Defensively, Oregon has had just two poor showings in Pac-10 play – allowing 51 points to Stanford and 41 to Arizona. Other than that, the Ducks have given up 13.2 ppg in their other six Pac-10 contests. Oregon has won nine straight home games overall and eight straight Pac-10 contests in Autzen Stadium.
The Ducks went to Corvallis last year and crushed Oregon State 65-38 as a 2½-point road underdog, ending the Beavers’ two-game win streak in this rivalry and coaching Oregon State the Pac-10 title. It was the most points Oregon State had ever surrendered in a game. The visitor has won the last two meetings following a 10-game run by the host. Also, the road team has taken the cash each of the last three years (all as an underdog) after the home team went 6-1 ATS and the favorite went 5-2 ATS in the previous seven years.
For the season, the Beavers put up 32.4 points and 422.2 total yards per game (149 rushing ypg, 4.2 yards per carry), with QB Sean Canfield completing 70.4 percent of his passes for 2,805 yards with 19 TDs and six INTs. Defensively, Oregon State yields 22.2 points and 340.5 yards per contest (98.5 rushing ypg.
QB Jeremiah Masoli (1,865 passing yards, 619 rushing yards, 26 total TDs, 4 INTs) paces a Ducks offense that ranks seventh in the nation in score (37.7 ppg) and 418.8 yards per game (231.4 rushing ypg, 5.5 per carry). The defense surrenders 22.7 points and 324 total yards per outing (130.6 rushing ypg).
The Beavers have covered in three Pac-10 games as a road underdog this season, including two outright upsets. They’re also on pointspread runs of 22-8 overall, 4-0 on the road (all as an underdog), 23-9 in Pac-10 action, 6-1 in December, 9-2 as an underdog, 5-0 as a road pup, 5-0 as a ‘dog of 3½ and 10 points, 4-0 against winning teams, 13-3 after a bye, 16-5 after an outright win and 48-19 after a spread-cover.
Oregon is riding positive ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 25-12 at home (5-0 last five), 8-2 in conference, 9-2 after a SU win, 8-1 after a bye, 5-2 as a favorite, 4-1 as a home chalk and 7-3 against winning teams. The lone negative for the Ducks: They’ve failed to cover in four straight games on Thursday, including the season-opening loss at Boise State.
Oregon State carries “under” trends of 7-1 on the road, 9-1-1 as an underdog of 3½ to 10 points and 9-3-1 after a bye. The under is also 4-0 in Oregon’s last four Thursday contests and 8-3-1 in its last 12 after a bye, but from there, the Ducks are on lengthy “over” runs of 5-0 overall (all in conference), 9-1-1 at home and 13-2-2 as a favorite.
Finally, each of the last seven meetings in this rivalry went over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Arkansas State (3-8, 2-8 ATS) at Western Kentucky (0-11, 5-6 ATS)
Western Kentucky tries one final time to get a victory in 2009 when it closes the season at home against the Red Wolves in a Sun Belt Conference clash.
Arkansas State snapped a four-game losing skid with Saturday’s 30-26 victory over North Texas, failing to cover as a seven-point favorite, its fifth ATS setback. It was the most points the Red Wolves had scored since a season-opening 61-0 win over Division I-AA Mississippi Valley State, as they had been held to 18 points or less (15.8 ppg) during their four-game losing streak.
The Hilltoppers have come up just short the last two weeks, losing on the road at Louisiana-Monroe (21-18) and Florida Atlantic (29-23). However, they easily covered as a double-digit favorite in both games and have now cashed in three in a row following an 0-4 ATS slump. Western Kentucky, which is giving up a whopping 41 points and 499 total yards per game this season, has lost 19 consecutive games overall, 25 straight to Division I-A opponents and 14 in a row to Sun Belt Conference foes. Head coach Dave Elson, who was fired on Nov. 9, will be on the Western Kentucky sidelines for the final time tonight.
This is the first-ever meeting between these schools.
On top of its current 0-5 ATS slide, Arkansas State is in pointspread funks of 8-23 overall, 1-11 on the road, 2-9 as a favorite, 1-10 as a road chalk, 7-20 in Sun Belt play, 6-19-1 after a SU win, 0-4 on Thursday and 8-22 versus losing teams. The Hilltoppers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games, 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a home ‘dog and 0-6 ATS in their last six against teams with a losing road record.
For the Red Wolves, the under is on runs of 19-7-1 overall, 16-5-1 on the road, 9-4 when laying points, 5-1 as a road favorite and 15-5-1 on grass. The under is also 6-2 in Western Kentucky’s last eight as a home ‘dog and 11-5 in its last 16 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Oregon St. at Oregon
By Christian Alexander
Just when you thought the college football season was ending, turns out its only just beginning. Last weekend we witnessed a host of classic rivalry games from the Border War for the Bronze Boot (Wyoming 17, Colorado State 16), to the Backyard Brawl (West Virginia 19, Pittsburgh 16), to the Border Showdown (Missouri 41, Kansas 39) to the Iron Bowl (Alabama 26, Auburn 21) and guess what? The best one might just be this Thursday night when Oregon State and Oregon hook up for the 113th edition of the “Civil War”.
This much we know already, it will be the most meaningful of all the rivalry games. That’s because they might as well rename this one the “War for the Roses” considering all that’s on the line is the Pac-10 title and a little trip to down the coast to Pasadena, CA to play in the “Granddaddy of them all”, the Rose Bowl.
Of course, the stakes were the same for Oregon State last year at this time. All the Beavers had to do was get past Oregon and Oregon State would have made their first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1964. When the dust settled however, Oregon had taken their hated rival out to the woodshed in a 65-38 beatdown. It was the most points that Oregon State had ever surrendered in a game.
This time around the stakes are the same for both teams, marking the first time in the long history of the Civil War that both teams are playing for a Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl trip. Needless to say, it will be quite a scene at Autzen Stadium.
Just for the sake of change it will be nice to see a different program grab the Pac-10 crown. USC has had a strangle hold on the title for the last seven years.
The great thing about this game is even if you stripped away the Pac-10 title, Rose Bowl, rivalry and revenge factors and implications, this would still be one hugely entertaining game with loads of offense.
For the Ducks, the offensive engine is definitely driven by QB Jeremiah Masoli. A classic dual threat, Masoli is a master at the read-option and can kill a defense with his arm and legs having totaled 1,865 yards, and 14 touchdowns through the air and 619 yards and 12 more scores on the ground. In seven games with Masoli under center this season Oregon has scored at least 42 points.
Of course, it’s not a one-man show for the Ducks as Masoli gets help from a host of others including RB LaMichael James who has rushed for over 100 yards in eight of the past nine games. The redshirt freshman has given the Ducks a huge boost this season, especially with the absence of LeGarrette Blount for most of the year.
It will certainly be interesting to see how well the Ducks can run considering they will be facing an Oregon State defense that only allows just over 98 yards per game on the ground. The Beavers will need special performances from LB’s Keaton Kristick, Dwight Roberson and Keith Pankey as well as DT Stephen Paea along the line to keep the Ducks from running wild as they did in last year’s Civil War.
But don’t forget, if it does turn into a shootout, Oregon State just might be able to trade blows with the Ducks. OSU QB Sean Canfield doesn’t get near the attention of Masoli but it’s worth noting that the fifth-year senior has completed 70% of his passes this season with just six interceptions. With Canfield under center the Beavers lead the Pac-10 in passing (272.5 yards per game).
One of the reasons that Canfield is a relative unknown outside of Oregon is that most folks know who the star of the OSU offense really is. RB Jacquizz Rodgers is clearly one of the best backs in the nation and a threat to score every time he touches the ball. “Quizz” as he is affectionately known, missed last year’s Civil War due to injury and would love to take over this game to make up for his absence last season.
To do so, Quizz will have to dent an Oregon defense that ranks 27th nationally in total defense, yielding 324 yards per game.
With two fairly similar programs, this game could easily be decided by the team that makes the fewest mistakes. In that case, Oregon State could have an advantage considering the Beavers have committed just eight turnovers this season, the second-lowest total in the nation (Cincinnati has seven).
One thing is for sure, this Civil War for the Roses will be fun to watch.
Civil War Notes:
--Oregon has played in the Rose Bowl four times with the most recent being 1994.
--Oregon State's losses this season were to Cincinnati, Arizona and USC.
--Oregon's last Pac-10 title came in 2001 with Joey Harrington under center. However, with the Rose Bowl hosting the BCS national championship game (between Miami and Nebraska) that year, the Ducks had to go to the Fiesta Bowl to face (and ultimately beat) Colorado.
--Oregon State is 6-4 against the spread (ATS) this season but an impressive 4-1 ATS on the road.
--Oregon lost its opener against Boise State and its lone conference game on the road at Stanford.
--Oregon State leads the Pac-10 and are ninth in the nation in third-down conversion, turning 48.4% of their third-down plays into first downs.
--Oregon leads the all-time series with Oregon State 56-46-10.
--In the red zone, the Beavers have scored 96% of the time, including touchdowns on 15 of their last 16 trips inside the opponent 20-yard line.
NCAAF Week 14
Thursday's games
Oregon-Oregon State winner goes to Rose Bowl; Ducks won 65-38 LY in Corvallis, running ball for 385 yards, keeping Beavers from going to Pasadena. State won 38-30 in last visit here, their first win in Eugene in last six visits. Oregon won nine of last ten games, scoring 42+ points in last five; they're 6-0 at home (5-1 vs spread)- their last five games went over total. Beavers won four in row, six of last seven games; they're 4-1 on road, losing 42-36 at USC. Pac-10 home sides are 21-18 vs spread.
Arkansas State snapped 4-game skid in last game; they are 0-6 on road, scoring 13.8 ppg in last four away games, and are 1-3 ve spread as fave this season. Western Kentucky is 0-11 after 29-23 loss last week, when they ran ball for 201 yards but still lost; they've run ball for average of 225.8 ypg in last four games. Hilltoppers covered their last three games, are 2-2 as home underdog this year. Five of last seven ASU games stayed under total. Sun Belt home dogs are 4-4 vs spread.
NFL Week 13
Thursday, December 3
Jets (5-6) vs Bills (4-7) (@ Toronto)-- Buffalo (+10) upset Jets 16-13 in OT first meeting in Week 6, despite giving up 318 rushing yards (first time that happened since 1944). In two games since they changed head coaches, Bills averaged 8.8/6.5 yards/pass attempt- in Jauron's last seven games, 5.4 was the most they had averaged. Jets lost six of last eight games, allowing 0-6 points in two wins- they're 0-5 when they allow more than 17 points, 2-3 on road, with wins at Houston/Oakland. Bills held five of last seven opponents to 18 points or less. Dogs are 5-3 vs spread in AFC East games this season. Five of last seven Buffalo games stayed under total.
Beavers and Ducks Decide Pac-10 Title
By Doug Upstone
ESPN undoubtedly would love to take credit for having the foresight to knowing this years Civil War between Oregon State and Oregon would have this much at stake. Alas, even the worldwide leader in sports knows that you luck into situations like this, having a Rose Bowl bid at stake. This is the first time ever the conflict has meant a trip to the Grand Daddy of them all for both schools.
Even the most optimistic of Oregon State backers saw a middle of the road Beavers team for 2009 and even a month ago would not have had a clue their team would be playing for the right to go to the Rose Bowl as Pac-10 champions.
But on Nov. 7, after upsetting California on the road 31-14 and Oregon losing at Stanford, things started to fall into place for these suddenly eager Beavers. After that win, coach Mike Riley tried to add perspective to his team about lie ahead, if you win a big game, then the next one gets bigger. His players accepted the challenge and are riding three-game winning streak (3-0 ATS) and is 6-0 ATS in road games after two straight Pac-10 games over the last two seasons.
Oregon State (8-3, 6-4 ATS) fans have not made the trek to Pasadena since the first day of 1964. Coach Riley might have a national power if his team could ever get off to fast start. After beginning 2-2 the Beavers have gnawed their way to six wins and covers in last seven games. Oregon State is 16-7 SU and ATS the last four games of the regular season since 2004.
Oregon (9-2, 7-4 ATS) was brilliant in coming from behind at Arizona, trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter and tying the game at 31 in the waning seconds before a frenzied crowded that was ready to storm the field. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli was unbelievable down the stretch and in overtime and placed his team in position to be outright Pac-10 champions with a victory against their most hated rival. The Ducks were last conference champions in 2001, but were moved to Fiesta Bowl because of BCS arrangement at the time. A win by Oregon has them playing New Years Day in the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1995. Oregon is 7-1 ATS with additional rest.
Oregon has scored 42 or more points in each Pac-10 game Masoli has started. Hes a master at running the read-option and powerful runner. His passing and judgment has improved all season. He'll lead the Pac-10s second ranked rushing offense against the top-rated run defense. The Beavers only allow 98.4 yards per game on the ground, but were lit up for 385 rushing yards last year at home by the Ducks. Oregons incredible efficiency has them 14-3 ATS after a game where they committed one or less turnovers.
Betonline.com has Oregon as 9.5-points favorites with total of 61.5. Oregon State knows to win quarterback Sean Canfield has to be on target for leagues best passing attack. The Beavers also have to be able to run close to their average of 147 yards, after gaining just 89 yards in last years battle. OSU is 14-3 ATS after the first month of the season and is 9-1 UNDER in road games off three straight wins against conference competition. The outcome could well be determined by the total score with the Ducks 8-1 OVER as a home favorite over the last two years, winning by over 17 points per game.
This Pac-10 title tilt starts at 9:00 Eastern and Oregon is 7-14 ATS since 1988 vs. Oregon State, however the home teams is 8-4 ATS in last 12.
Second-Home
By SportsPic
Defeating AFC East rival Miami Dolphins 31-14 snapping a three-game losing streak along with marking just their second victory of the season at Ralph Wilson Stadium the Buffalo Bills head to Toronto and the Rodgers Centre for an encounter with the New York Jets on Thursday night. Avoiding one of their usual late game collapses the Bills scored 24 unanswered 4th quarter points in the victory moving the record to 4-7 on the season with a 6-5 mark at the betting window. Meanwhile, Jets (5-6 SU/ATS) behind a defense firing on all cylinders snapped it's own three game slide defeating Panthers 17-6 keeping their flickering playoff hopes alive. The last time these two collided in week-6 the Bills walked off with a 16-13 OT win in a contest that saw Jets rookie QB Sanchez chuck five picks in the loss. That experience still fresh in coach Rex Ryan's memory bank expect Jets to give Bills a steady dose of it's 2nd ranked ground game (161.3 RYG) as they look to avenge the earlier loss. Trends of note: Bills are 1-5 ATS trying for consecutive wins, 8-20 ATS off DD division win, 3-14 ATS after playing Fish. Teams like Jets who pound out 30+ plays on the ground, out-rushing opponents by 30+ yards/game are a sparkling 45-17-2 against-the-number.
Tips and Trends
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Jets (-3, O/U 37): Despite winning last week, the Jets aren't playing good football. The Jets are only 2-6 SU and ATS over their past 8 games. Away from home, the Jets are 2-3 ATS this season. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has only thrown for more than 200 YDS in 3 of his 11 starts this season. Away from home, Sanchez has twice as many INTs than TDs with a QB rating under 60. Luckily, this offense is ground dominated. The Jets lead the entire NFL in rushing attempts, and are 2nd in the NFL in rushing average with 161 YPG. This Jets defense is only allowing 17.7 PPG, which ranks them 6th in the NFL. The Jets have the 2nd best passing defense in the NFL, thanks in large part to CB Darrelle Revis. Revis will be assigned Terrell Owens, who he held to 3 receptions for 13 yards earlier this season.
Jets are 3-9 ATS last 12 games as a favorite.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games in December.
Key Injuries - QB Mark Sanchez (knee) is probable.
CB Donald Strickland (concussion) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 17
Bills: Buffalo is coming off their best game of the season, a 31-14 win against the Dolphins. Buffalo is 4-2 ATS away from home this season. The Bills have been underdogs in 9 of their 11 games this season, winning 5 of those ATS. Buffalo has shaken up their offense a bit, going with new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and RB Fred Jackson. Fitzpatrick has led the Bills to a 2-2 SU record, including 3-1 ATS. Defensively, the Bills have the worst rush defense in the NFL, allowing more than 165 rushing YPG. They've also allowed 16 rushing touchdowns this season. The Bills have already beaten the Jets this year, despite allowing 318 yards rushing in that game. It's unlikely the Bills will get 6 INTs tonight, so they will need to improve on their league worst rush defense.
Bills are 1-6 ATS last 7 games following a SU win.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - CB Terrence McGee (knee) is questionable.
DT John McCargo (calf) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (Side of the Day)
Oregon State at Oregon
Oregon State: No doubt the Beavers are looking for revenge here, as Oregon scored 65 points last year at Oregon St. The Beavers would like nothing more than to win at Oregon to go to the Rose Bowl. Oregon St. has been great on the road this year, going 4-1 both SU and ATS this year. Oregon St. is also 4-1 ATS this year as an underdog. Today represents only the 2nd time this year that Oregon St. is an underdog of more than a touchdown. QB Sean Canfield directs the Pac 10's best passing offense at over 270 YPG. Canfield is also very accurate, completing 70% of his passes this year. The Beavers have scored 96% of their red zone opportunities this year, including 15 touchdowns in their last 16 chances.
Oregon St is 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
Key Injuries - DT Brennan Olander (knee) is questionable.
DT Mitchel Hunt (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 34
Oregon (-9.5, O/U 62.5): With the Pac-10 Championship at stake, Oregon wouldn't want to play anywhere else but at home tonight. They are a perfect 6-0 SU this year at home, including 5-1 ATS. Oregon is 3-2 ATS this season when favored by single digits. Oregon averages 42 PPG at home this season. RB LaMichael James is 3rd in the Pac 10 with over 1,300 rushing yards this season. QB Jeremiah Masoli is the key to this offense, as he makes it dynamic. Masoli is a duel threat QB that has nearly 2,500 total yards and 26 touchdowns this year. Defensively, Oregon is only giving up 12 PPG at home against league opponents. The Ducks rush defense has been solid as well, as they've held 5 of their past 6 opponents to 140 rushing yards or less.
Oregon is 8-1 ATS last 9 games following a bye week.
Over is 9-1-1 last 11 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - DE Zac Clark (knee) is questionable.
LB Bryson Littlejohn (foot) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 38 (OVER - Total of the Day)