NFL - NCAAF News and Notes Monday 12/28

MINNESOTA (11 - 3) at CHICAGO (5 - 9)

Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHICAGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
Minnesota is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO
MINNESOTA: 6-0 Under 2nd half of season
CHICAGO: 6-0 Under 2nd half of season

TEXAS A&M (6 - 6) vs. GEORGIA (7 - 5)

Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games after a bye week since 1992.
GEORGIA is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TEXAS A&M vs. GEORGIA
Texas A&M is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Texas A&M is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Georgia is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

Texas A&M vs. Georgia

Texas A&M
4-16 ATS off bye week
11-2 Over as an underdog

Georgia
21-6 ATS in non-conference road games
24-11 ATS Away off an Under

Texas A&M
6-6 bowlers are 20-7 ATS if they won three or more games last season… 0-5-1 ATS away or neutral vs SEC

Georgia
Bulldogs 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS as bowlers S/91… 3-11 ATS L14G as pick or favs

MNF - Vikings at Bears
By Brian Edwards

With the Bucs collecting a stunning win at New Orleans and Philadelphia taking care of business versus Denver, Minnesota (11-3 straight up, 8-5-1 against the spread) goes into Monday Night Football at Chicago with a renewed sense of urgency. The Vikings can attain homefield advantage throughout the playoffs by winning out if the Saints lose next week at Carolina.

On the flip side, the Eagles can steal the No. 2 seed in the NFC from Minnesota if they win next week and the Vikings falter. Regardless of the postseason ramifications, Brad Childress’s team needs to get back on track after losing two if its last three games.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Vikings as seven-point road favorites with a total of 41 ½. As of Sunday night, most betting shops had pushed Minnesota up to 7 ½ with total at 41 or 41 ½. Bettors can back Chicago (5-9 SU, 4-10 ATS) to win outright for a plus-270 return (risk $100 to win $270).

The prime-time games have not been kind to the Vikings recently. Three weeks ago, Minnesota went into Arizona on Sunday night and saw its four-game winning streak snapped in a 30-17 loss as a 3 ½-point road ‘chalk.’ After bouncing back with a 30-10 home win over the Bengals, Carolina humbled the Vikes last Sunday night by capturing a 26-7 win as an 8½-point home underdog.

Even more telling, Childress and Brett Favre had a heated conversation on the sidelines when then the head coach was considering yanking the veteran quarterback. That situation caused a media uproar all week, as it became evident that the QB and coach were not on the same page.

That’s what happens in the NFL when teams lose. Losses create drama and controversy that can only be cured by winning, which is exactly what needs to happen for the Vikings on MNF. Until then, all eyes will be on the Favre-Childress situation.

But the Vikings aren’t the only team with issues. The Bears made a huge offseason splash by trading for Jay Cutler, who has responded by leading the NFL in interceptions with 25. In the process, Cutler might be driving head coach Lovie Smith into unemployment.

Due to the economic climate, however, and Smith’s contract that has plenty of money left on it, the prevailing notion seems to be that Smith can still save his job. But a win over Minnesota to stop the bleeding might be imperative.

Chicago has lost six of its last seven games and has failed to cover the number in each of those contests. The Bears are off a 31-7 loss at Baltimore as 10½-point road underdogs. Cutler was horrible yet again, completing just 10-of-27 passes for 94 yards and three interceptions.

For the season, Cutler has a 19/25 touchdown-interception ratio. Meanwhile, Favre has a 27/7 TD-INT ratio. Favre’s career season-low total of interceptions is 13, further demonstrating how effective he’s been in this offense. He has connected on 67.8-percent of his passes for 3,565 yards.

Adrian Peterson has rushed for 1,235 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. Those are solid season numbers, but bettors should take note of five straight games in which Peterson has failed to eclipse the 100-yard mark. In fact, he’s only gone over 100 yards three times this year.

But the Bears and Solider Field could be just what the doctor ordered for the Oklahoma product. Peterson first visited the Windy City in October of 2007, rushing for what was then a franchise-record 224 yards. He has averaged 106.5 yards per game and scored nine TDs in five career games against the Bears.

Rookie Percy Harvin has enjoyed a banner campaign, but he hasn’t been much of a factor the last two weeks due to lingering migraine headaches. Harvin didn’t play against the Bengals. In last week’s loss to Carolina, he didn’t practice much during the week and had only one reception for 10 yards.

Harvin has 49 receptions for 691 yards and six touchdowns. He’s also been dynamic on special teams with a pair of kick returns for TDs. Harvin also has 13 carries for 113 yards for an 8.7 YPC average.

When these NFC North adversaries met at the Metrodome on Nov. 29, Minnesota spanked Chicago by a 36-10 count as a 10-point home favorite. The 46 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 47-point total thanks to a missed PAT by the Vikes after scoring with 6:46 left in the final stanza.

Favre torched the Bears for 392 passing yards and three TDs without being intercepted. Peterson rushed for 85 yards and one TD, while DE Jared Allen collected a pair of sacks and also had an interception.

The ‘under’ has cashed in six consecutive games for both of these teams. The ‘under’ is 10-4 overall for the Bears, 5-2 in their home games. The ‘under’ is 8-6 overall for the Vikings, 4-3 in their road games.

ESPN will have the telecast at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Since 2001, Minnesota has 1-7 record at Solider Field.

The ‘over’ is 5-2-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these long-time rivals.

Chicago is 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS at home. The Bears have been home underdogs three times, posting a 1-2 record both SU and ATS. They beat Pittsburgh 17-14 as three-point home ‘dogs way back in Week 2.

Minnesota is 4-3 both SU and ATS on the road this season. The Vikes are 3-2 both SU and ATS as road ‘chalk.’

Chicago WR Devin Hester is “questionable” with a calf injury that kept him out of last week’s loss at Baltimore. Hester leads the Bears in receiving with 54 catches for 682 yards and three TDs.

vegasinsider.com

Independence Bowl Preview
By Chris David

Prior to the start of the regular season, most expected the Big 12 to challenge the SEC as the best conference in football. The two will put their bragging rights on the line come Jan. 7, 2007 when Alabama and Texas square off in the BCS Championship from Pasadena. Does the one victory assure greatness over another group? Fortunately for us, we won’t have to answer that question since the two powerhouse conferences will meet three times this postseason.

Oklahoma State and Mississippi will tangle in the Cotton Bowl from Dallas on Jan. 2 but not before Texas A&M (6-6 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) and Georgia (7-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) battle from Shreveport, LA on Monday in the Independence Bowl.

The matchup between the Aggies and Bulldogs doesn’t appear to be sexy on paper, evidenced by their records, but the oddsmakers are expecting a shootout at Independence Stadium. The total is hovering around 66 points and if the offensive units come to play, this number could be eclipsed easily.

The Big 12 didn’t have as many juggernauts in its stable this season opposed to last year but a few of the schools knew how to rack up numbers, including Texas A&M. Quarterback Jerrod Johnson (3,672 total yards, 36 total TDs) led an offense that was ranked first in the Big 12 and fifth nationally in total yards (465). The unit averaged 33.9 points per game and Johnson was intercepted just six times in 12 games.

With these prolific offensive numbers, it makes you wonder how the Aggies lost six games. The answer is simple, the defense. Mike Sherman’s squad gave up 431 YPG and 32.7 PPG, which were both ranked dead-last in the Big 12. The team gave up 30-plus points in eight games, twice allowed 40-plus points and also surrendered 60-spots to Kansas State and Oklahoma.

The majority of the defensive issues for the unit came on the road. A&M gave up an average of 48 PPG in its four games outside of College Station, which produced a 1-3 record both SU and ATS. Total players watched the ‘over’ easily cash in all four. Besides having a swiss-cheese style defense, the Aggies do boast the nation’s leading sack machine in junior Von Miller (17 sacks).

Sherman and his defense is hoping Miller can step up in the bowl game when they face a Georgia team that has the ability to light up the scoreboard as well. Despite losing Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) and Knowshon Moreno (Denver Broncos) to the NFL, quarterback Joe Cox (2.426 yards, 22 TDs) hasn’t broken the record books but he’s done a decent job behind center. The signal caller helped Georgia close the year with bursts of 38, 31, 27 and 30 points in its final four games.

Cox was complimented with a solid running game towards the end of the season, which was led by freshman Washaun Ealey (637 yards) and sophomore Caleb King (534 yards, 5 TDs). When Cox wasn’t handing off this season, he was connecting with wide receiver A.J. Green (47 catches, 6 TDs). Green (shoulder) missed three of the four final games of the year but is expected to be healthy on Monday. Just his presence should keep men out of the box and help Cox with the deep ball.

Similar to A&M, the Dawgs have had major issues on defense. The unit allowed 26.4 PPG, which ranked 10th in the SEC and 70th nationally. Georgia gave up 34 points or more in five games this year, including three dismal performances of 40-plus points. Head coach Mark Richt was so disappointed with the defense, he decided to let go of his defensive coordinator and two other staffers after the season. Richt said he’ll help create the defensive scheme against the Aggies, which might not be a great idea since he’s a former quarterback and offensive coordinator. And, most would find it hard to come up with a solid strategy behind raw assistants.

The one statistic that stands out the most to this writer is Georgia’s turnover margin, which is minus-17 (10/27) in 12 games. In case you’re wondering, only Miami-Ohio (minus 24) was worse nationally.

Despite the below-average defensive numbers for both schools, the books still have the Bulldogs listed as seven-point favorites. Georgia hasn’t fared well as a ‘chalk’ this year, going 2-4 ATS.

Motivation is a big factor that gamblers use when handicapping bowls and VegasInsider.com college football money leader Mark Fox believes Georgia doesn’t have any.

“Georgia blasted Hawaii in the 2007 Sugar Bowl and then beat Michigan State in last year’s Capital One Bowl on New Year’s Day. It’s hard to imagine the team getting up for the Independence Bowl and it could be overlooking a 6-6 Texas A&M squad as well. On the other side of the football, I expect the Aggies to be excited for this matchup. The school is hoping to snap a three-game bowl losing streak and put the program back on the map, especially under the guidance of head coach Mike Sherman, who will be bowling for the first time,” said Fox.

Common opponents are another angle bettors look at and fortunately they have two, Arkansas and Oklahoma State. The Aggies were outclassed against both of the schools and weren’t able to contain the Razorbacks (19-47) or the Cowboys (31-36). Georgia couldn’t muster up any offense against Oklahoma State (10-24) but it did find away to light up the scoreboard in a road victory over Arkansas (51-42).

ESPN2 will be providing national coverage of this game which starts at 5:00 p.m. EST. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-forties at kickoff with clear skies.

vegasinsder.com

What Bettors Need To Know: Vikings at Bears
By RICKY DIMON

This week’s Monday Night Football showdown features a battle of NFC North rivals.

The Vikings (11-3, 8-5-1 ATS) have already clinched the division, but they are still battling for a first-round bye in the upcoming playoffs. Minnesota has lost two of its last three games, including a 26-7 setback last week at Carolina.

The Bears (5-9, 4-10 ATS) are mathematically eliminated from postseason contention having lost two straight games and six of their last seven.

Line movement

Minnesota opened as a 7-point favorite at most betting sites and the line has rarely wavered outside of 7 and 7.5 points. The total opened at 41 and has seen minimal fluctuation.

Injury report

Both Minnesota and Chicago are dealing with some injury trouble.

The Henderson brothers (linebackers Erin and E.J.) will be missed by the Vikings on Monday. Guard Steve Hutchinson (shoulder) and Pat Williams (elbow) are questionable, but rookie receiver Percy Harvin (neck) has participated fully in practice and is expected to play.

A host of Bears are listed as questionable, including receiver Devin Hester (calf), linebacker Lance Briggs (back), defensive tackle Tommie Harris (knee), tight end Desmond Clark (illness), and offensive tackle Orlando Pace (groin).

Windy City

The high in Chicago on Monday is expected to be 27 degrees and it should be around 20 degrees (not factoring in a 15 mph wind) for game time. There is a 30 percent chance of snow flurries.
Prior engagements

Minnesota hammered Chicago 36-10 in the Metrodome on Nov. 29 - just four weeks ago.

The Vikings dominated by outgaining the Bears 537 to 169 in total yards. Adrian Peterson ran for just 85 yards, but Brett Favre completed 32 of 48 passes for 392 yards and three touchdowns. The Bears mustered only 43 rushing yards.

The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between the two teams. Minnesota last won at Soldier Field in October of 2007.

Another chilly December?

Last season as a New York Jet, Brett Favre posted a 1-3 record in December while throwing two touchdowns and eight interceptions.

The Vikings, meanwhile, started this year 10-1, but it’s been more of a struggle for them in December. They beat Cincinnati in between losses to Arizona and Carolina, and Favre has thrown more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (three) in games this month.

More notably, Favre and head coach Brad Childress have been sparring after Childress wanted Favre to come out of the game in the fourth quarter of Minnesota’s loss to Carolina. Emotions have reportedly been boiling ever since, although the two parties have tried to dissolve further rumors.

“I think it's all resolved,” Favre said on Wednesday. “He (Childress) and I have talked.”

Yo Adrian

Peterson has rushed for 345 yards and five touchdowns in his two previous visits to Soldier Field.

“Just playing where Walter Payton used to play and Soldier Field, there is so much history there and tradition," Peterson noted. “Just being a Walter Payton fan, I'm always pumped up for that game. Plus, I love playing on grass fields.”

The third-year running back should have plenty of opportunities for another successful stint in Chicago. He is going up against a Bears defense that is 25th in the league in stopping the run, allowing 128.5 yards per game.

Trending topics

The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against NFC North opponents and they are 4-1-1 ATS against teams with losing records. Showing impressive consistency, Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a SU loss.

The Bears are 3-12-1 ATS in their last sixteen games against the NFC and they are 1-7 in their last eight against the NFC North. Chicago is also 0-4 in its last four home games and 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog.

Neither Minnesota (2-8 ATS in its last 10) nor Chicago (0-5-1 ATS in its last six) have fared well in December of late.

Both the Vikings (6-8 O/U) and the Bears (4-10 O/U) have been relatively strong over/under plays in 2009, especially during the second half of the season. The under is 6-0 in both teams’ last six games.

What Bettors Need To Know: Independence Bowl
By PATRICK GARBIN

In just their fifth meeting ever and first since 1980, Georgia and Texas A&M face off in one of the most appealing matchups in the 34-year history of the Independence Bowl

Line movement

The line opened with Georgia as a 7-point favorite and has held constant. The total opened at 64 but has since climbed two points as most bettors expect a high-scoring affair.

Although nearly three-fourths the betting public likes the Bulldogs -7, the Aggies and their moneyline odds (+245) and the over are overwhelming wagering favorites.

Significant injuries/suspensions

No meaningful players will miss the bowl for either team, although Georgia expects to return impact players safety Bacarri Rambo and wide receiver A.J. Green from injuries.

Green, arguably one of college football’s best players, suffered a shoulder injury and has missed the last three-and-a-half games.

Run, Dawgs, Run

As Georgia’s offensive line steadily improved the latter part of the season, the Bulldogs’ rushing attack began to produce. After averaging less than 3.4 yards per carry through its first six games, Georgia gained more than 5.5 per rush the last half of the year.

"We had a lot of success [running the football]," said freshman Washaun Ealey, who leads the Dogs with 639 rushing yards. "I hope we do it a lot in the future."

The “future” should start against Texas A&M; the Aggies are allowing more than 4.5 yards per carry.

Georgia head coach Mark Richt has said an effective rushing attack was the key to keeping the Aggies from monopolizing the football; Texas A&M averages 80.1 offensive plays per game, second most in the FBS.

Motivation and missing pieces

After playing in a January bowl in six of the last seven years, the Bulldogs are having to settle for a minor bowl. If Georgia could have won an additional game, it likely would have gone to the Outback Bowl. Instead, its 7-5 record and a presumed lack of traveling fans slipped the Dogs down to the Independence.

Texas A&M is just happy to go bowling after missing the postseason in four of its previous seven seasons.

Following Georgia’s regular season, three defensive assistants, including the defensive coordinator, were fired and decided not to coach in the bowl. Defensive line coach Rodney Garner, a graduate assistant, and program coordinator will fill in for the departed coaches.

Mistakes and miscues

Georgia shot itself in the foot all season with penalties and turnovers; the Bulldogs are 119th in the FBS in turnover margin (-1.42) and are being penalized 8.3 times for 70 yards per game.

In only two of its 12 games has Georgia had a better turnover margin than its opponent—against Auburn and Georgia Tech—and in just two games less than 40 penalty yards—against the same two opponents, the Bulldogs’ two most meaningful wins this season.

Texas A&M has forced more than twice as many turnovers as Georgia has (21/10). Senior Jordan Pugh leads the Aggies with three interceptions and lineman Von Miller, besides leading the nation with 17 sacks, has forced four fumbles. No other Aggie has forced more than one.

Key matchup

Texas A&M’s Jerrod Johnson is the perfect type of quarterback—a tremendous passer who often relies on his running—to give Georgia’s defense fits.

The Bulldogs don’t necessarily yield lots of yardage but, in often granting opposing offenses favorable field position, give up lots of points. Johnson and the Aggie offense’s up-tempo attack have scored 31+ points in nine of 12 games.

In his last game, the Aggie quarterback accounted for 439 total yards on 47 plays and guided A&M to 39 points on a Texas defense ranked third in the nation and allowing only 13 points per game.

"We feel we can match up with anyone in the country," Johnson said.

Trends

During Georgia’s current 12-year consecutive bowl streak, the Bulldogs are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS in bowls.

After going 6-3 SU and 6-3 ATS in bowl games from 1976-1990, Texas A&M is 2-10 SU and 5-7 ATS in its last 12 bowls, including 1-5 ATS in its last six.

Since its loss to Alabama a year ago, Georgia has given up 34 or more points in 10 of 21 games. During that same time, the Dogs are 6-15 ATS.

Minnesota (11-3, 8-5-1 ATS) at Chicago (5-9, 4-10 ATS)

The Vikings head to Soldier Field in Chicago looking to lock up the second seed in the NFC playoffs and remain in contention for the No. 1 seed with a victory over the division rival Bears.

Minnesota has dropped two of its last three games (SU and ATS), including last Sunday night’s 26-7 loss at Carolina as a nine-point road favorite. The Vikings, who have lost two in a row and three of their last four on the highway (SU and ATS), have struggled offensively the last three weeks, managing just 18 points and 291.3 total yards per game – far off their season-long averages of 28.3 points and 368.9 yards per game.

Chicago was crushed in Baltimore 31-7 last Sunday, never threatening to cover as a 10½-point underdog. Since a 3-1 SU and ATS start, the Bears have lost two in a row and eight of 10, and they’re just 1-9 ATS during this stretch, including seven straight non-covers coming into this contest. Chicago’s offense has managed just 12.7 points and 240.7 yards per game the last three weeks. Additionally, the Bears have the NFL’s third-worst rushing attack, managing just 88.3 yards per game on the ground, while QB Jay Cutler has offset 19 TD passes with a league-leading 25 interceptions.

The SU winner has covered the spread in 13 of Chicago’s 14 games this year and is 11-2-1 ATS in Minnesota’s 14 contests (7-0-1 ATS last eight). Also, the favorite is 9-3 ATS in the Bears’ last 12 outings and is 8-5-1 ATS in all 14 Vikings games.

Minnesota scored a 36-10 blowout home win over the Bears on Nov. 29, easily cashing as a 10-point favorite. The Vikings have won four of the last five matchups in this rivalry (3-2 ATS) but lost in the Windy City last season 48-41 as three-point underdogs. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series meetings, with the Bears holding a 5-1 ATS edge in the past six clashes in Chicago.

The Vikings are just 1-4 ATS in their last five Week 16 games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 December contests, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 4-0-1 against division rivals, 7-1 after a straight-up loss and 4-1-1 against teams with losing records. There is nothing positive about the Bears’ ATS streaks, as they’re in pointspread slumps of 0-7 overall, 0-4 at home, 6-18-2 against winning teams, 3-12-1 against NFC squads, 1-7 against division rivals, 0-5-1 in December and 1-11 as an underdogs.

Minnesota is on “under” runs of 6-0 overall (all as a favorite), 5-0 in December, 8-2-1 as a road favorite and 7-3 on the road against teams with losing records. Chicago also is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 6-0 overall, 4-1 at home, 56-26-2 as an underdog, 5-0 against NFC teams, 10-1 after a straight-up loss and 12-2 after a non-cover. In this series, the “over” is 5-2-1 in the last eight matchups.

Finally, six of the last seven Monday Night Football contests have stayed under the total, following a 19-5-1 “over” stretch on Mondays.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER

Texas A&M (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. Georgia (7-5, 4-7 ATS)

The Bulldogs, who were ranked 13th in the AP preseason poll but slid rapidly from there in the rugged Southeastern Conference, make their 13th consecutive bowl appearance when they take on Texas A&M at Independence Stadium.

Georgia got bounced at Oklahoma State 24-10 in its season opener, rebounded to win three in a row, then muddled through the rest of the season with a 4-4 SU mark (3-4 ATS). The Bulldogs managed to win three of their last four games (2-1 ATS in lined games) to get bowl-eligible for the 13th year in a row. The Dawgs capped the regular season in style, upsetting instate rival Georgia Tech 30-24 as a 9½-point road underdog on Nov. 28.

The Aggies also never really got a foothold on their season in the Big 12, winning their first three games, then losing three in row before finishing the year on a 1-3 SU skid (2-2 ATS). That said, Texas A&M battled hard against archrival and then-third-ranked Texas in the Nov. 26 regular-season finale before succumbing 49-39 but easily cashing as an overwhelming 20-point home ‘dog. That gave A&M a 4-2 ATS mark over its last six games.

These schools have met five times previously, but only twice since 1954, with Georgia most recently rolling 42-0 in 1980.

The Bulldogs played in New Year’s Day bowl games six of the past seven years, including last year when they dropped Michigan State 24-12 as a nine-point chalk in the Capital One Bow. That made Georgia 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 bowl games. Meanwhile, the Aggies’ most recent bowl appearance came two years ago when they lost to Penn State 24-17 as a five-point pup in the Alamo Bowl. Texas A&M is just 1-5 ATS in bowl games this decade.

Georgia scored 27 points or more in five of their last six games, averaging 29.5 points per game during this stretch. For the season, it put up 27.7 points and 361.8 total yards per game, including 157.1 ypg on the ground, mostly behind a three-headed RB attack of Washaun Ealey, Caleb King and Richard Samuel, who combined for 1,568 yards. The Bulldogs’ D surrendered 26.4 points and 328.4 yards per contest.

Texas A&M sports one of the nation’s most prolific offenses, rolling up 33.9 points and 465.3 yards per game, with the latter figure ranking fifth nationally. The Aggies were balanced with 274.9 passing ypg and 190.4 rushing ypg. QB Jerrod Johnson was the catalyst, throwing for 3,217 yards with 28 TDs against just six INTs, and he also ran for 455 yards and eight scores. However, the Aggies’ defense ranked among the worst in the nation, giving up 431.3 ypg (107th) and 32.7 ppg (104th).

In addition to its 11-4 ATS run in bowl games, Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven on neutral fields, but otherwise the Dawgs carry negative ATS streaks of 6-14 overall, 3-11 as a chalk, 0-5-1 after a spread-cover and 1-4 after a SU win. Meanwhile, the Aggies 1-5 ATS bowl slide is compounded by pointspread slumps of 0-5 at neutral sites, 0-4 as an underdog, 3-7 outside the Big 12, 0-3-1 against the SEC and 1-4 in December.

The over is 8-3 in Georgia’s last 11 bowl starts and 6-2 in its last eight December outings, but the under for the Dawgs is on rolls of 3-0 in non-conference action and 4-0 against the Big 12. The under is 5-2 in A&M’s last seven bowl games, but the Aggies are otherwise on a bundle of “over” runs, including 6-2 overall, 8-2 after a SU loss, 11-5-1 in non-conference play, 34-16-2 as a pup and 39-19-2 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and OVER

Vikings (11-3) @ Bears (5-9)

Minnesota lost last two road games by 13-19 points (three TDs on last 23 road drives); they've allowed 27.3 ppg their last four road games (1-3). Vikings waxed Chicago 36-10 four weeks ago (-10.5), outrushing Bears 159-43, converting 12-18 on 3rd down (Favre was 32-48/378 passing). Cutler has been awful at night, Bears have been terrible since its bye, losing eight of last ten games (0-7 vs spread last seven games)- they're 1-7 vs spread as underdog this year, losing home games by 20-4-7 points (4-3 SU). Favorites are 7-2-1 vs spread in NFC North games, 3-0 on road. Last six tilts for both teams stayed under the total.

Independence Bowl

7-5 Georgia had one of its worst seasons in memory; this is just second time in eight years they're not playing in January. Dawgs have only 10 takeaways all season (tied for worst in country) and are 2-5 vs spread as a favorite. Richt fired three defensive coaches after regular season, so the Georgia staff is coaching shorthanded. A minus-17 turnover ratio and a team missing three assistant coaches playing in Shreveport? Not the best scenario for Georgia fans.

Texas A&M is closer to Shreveport than Georgia; they didn't go bowling LY, so they should have more enthusiasm here, but Aggies lost last three bowls, while Georgia is 12-3 in last 15 bowls, winning the last three by 7-31-12 points. Richt is 6-2 in bowls, covering last two as the favorite.

First bowl game for former Packer coach Sherman; Texas Tech was only winning team they beat this season. Aggies allowed 47+ points in four of their games. /Considering Georgia ran ball behind young OL for average of 217 yards a game over last six games, would expect Dawgs to try and pound ball, while Aggies' terrific QB Johnson will throw it more. Aggies are 2-10 in last twelve bowls; this is their fourth bowl in eight years.

Big 12 teams are 9-6 in bowls last two years. Kentucky's loss Sunday makes SEC teams 19-8 in last 27 bowls. A&M has big edge at QB and also maybe in motivation. If weather is good, this should be hi-scoring.

Vikings favored to sink Chicago
By Doug Upstone

Formally known as the Purple People Eaters, Minnesota captured six straight NFC Central Division titles from 1973-78, appeared in four conference championship games and three Super Bowls. Along with Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota enjoyed four consecutive double-digit win seasons playing a 14-game schedule starting in 1973 and was entrenched as one of the leagus elite franchises.

Three decades later, the Vikings have yet to return to the Super Bowl but they took a considerable step last Sunday when Green Bays lost in Pittsburgh giving them back-to-back division crowns for the first time since the late 70s. Only two current Vikings Brett Favre and Pat Williams were alive when it last happened and theyll try to secure a first-round playoff bye for the first time since 1998.

Speaking of No. 4, he once again made himself the center of attention by refusing to exit last weeks loss to Carolina. Thus heading to the Windy City, Minnesota (11-3, 8-5 ATS) has unintentionally given ESPN a number of storylines heading into its last Monday night telecast.

Though Favre and coach Brad Childress have reportedly kiss and made up, questions have to remain, especially in the Vikings locker room, where players have to wonder who is really in charge. Enough players will back Favre, while others will support the coach. No matter who backs who, Minnesota backers are impassible with their team 5-22 ATS in final road of the regular season.

Favre has been remarkable, no matter what his age, as the Vikings have a had a top 10 offense all season and are fourth in scoring at 28.3 points per game. Minnesotas outstanding season has in part been because of how they played in division, showcasing a 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS record in NFC North games.

Minnesota got a potential belated Christmas gift, with New Orleans losing a second straight home game, blowing a 17-0 lead to Tampa Bay and losing in overtime 20-17, leaving ajar the door for Minny to be the top-seed in the NFC if they win out and the Saints falter at Carolina next week.

Chicago (4-10 ATS) fans couldnt have been happier this past off-season, they finally got their franchise quarterback, one problem; he needs to be able to throw the ball to somebody. Jay Cutler has thrown for over 3,100 yards and 19 touchdowns, but been picked off a league-high 25 times. Chicago receivers are arguably the worst in the NFL (good luck trying to find ones that are worse) and the combination of poor route-running and Cutler trying to force throws have sunk Chicago.

The Bears have fallen like the winter temperatures to 5-9 by losing six of its last seven games, including a 36-10 rout at the hands of the Vikings in November. Chicago has become THE play against team having dropped seven in a row against the spread. The Bears are 2-16 ATS this month as underdog versus team that is off SU and ATS loss.

In the previous matchup, Chicago had no answers for Favre, who completed 32 of 48 for 392 yards and three touchdowns. All three of his scoring tosses one each to rookie Percy Harvin, Chester Taylor and Visanthe Shiancoe came in the second quarter as the hosts built a 24-7 halftime lead. Cutler threw for 147 yards and a touchdown and was picked off twice and sacked four times.

The Bears have fared well at home in this head-to-head series however, going 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS dating back to 1998. They are also on a nice 12-3 ATS run when revenging a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent. However, coach on the hot seat Lovie Smith has seen his team at its worst against good teams, 0-7 ATS vs. clubs with a winning record in this campaign.

Betonline.com has Minnesota as seven-point road division favorite, with total of 41. The Vikings are 4-11 ATS as North Division visiting favorites and is a torpid 2-13 ATS in December as road chalk. The Vikes are 7-0 UNDER off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite. If Chicago has an ounce of pride, they should play well after another dismal effort, on home turf against rival with playoffs ahead of them. The Bears are 14-6 ATS at Soldier Field after posting 10 or fewer points and are 8-0 UNDER as an underdog this season.

Minnesota covers if they have the kind of game plan that has them jumping all over the Bears early. Get Adrian Peterson wide, play action pass deep and use Shiancoe over the middle. The Vikings running game has produced 62 or fewer yards in two of the last three weeks, this is opportunity to fix things against 25th rated run defense. The defensive front four can dominate the Chicago offensive and keep Cutlers miscues coming. Above all, Childress has to convince his team to play 60 minutes and finish their work, otherwise they could fall victim like the Saints or almost what happened to Philadelphia on Sunday.

Chicago covers if they can make Favre uncomfortable in the pocket. Over the last few seasons, the former Southern Miss product has not played well outdoors in the cold. After 12 touchdowns and no interceptions in November, Favre has just three TDs and four picks in the final month of 2009. Its going to be up to the defense to raise their level of play and force Vikings into mistakes. Chicago talk radio has brought up OC Ron Turner as a big part of offensive issues and Da Bears cant be too quick to abandon the run, as long as they are within two touchdowns. Cutler is a good play-action passer, dont leave him without options. Chicago must dominate the special teams to control field position.

Monday Night System - Play On a division team that outgained its opponent in earlier game by more than a 100 total yards. (18-5 ATS, 78.2 percent)

MNF Betting Guide
By SportsPic

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears December 28th 08:20 EST
Favre and the Vikings (11-3, 8-5-1 ATS) try to bounce back from their second loss in three games when they visit Soldier Field and the struggling Bears (5-9, 4-10 ATS) Monday night.

Playing a Chicago team in disarray seems to be the right medicine. Minnesota certainly has the edge in talent and should make enough big plays to walk off with a 'W'.

However, Vikings looking downright awful in road losses to Arizona (30-17), Carolina (26-7) and being 1-7 last eight at Soldier Field (2-5-1 ATS), 1-8 against the number the past nine trips on the field in December laying a touchdown puts the squad in dangerous betting territory. Keep in mind, Vikings are 0-3 ATS as road favorites in MNF, Bears are 5-2-1 ATS at home taking a touchdown or more.

Total players need to be aware the team enter a combined 14-2 'Under' the past eight games, Boat-Men are 8-2-1 'Under' as road favorites, Bears are 8-0 'Under' L8 as dogs, 10-2 'Under' L12 taking points.

Independence Bowl Texas A&M vs. Georgia
By John Ryan

This is an absolutely fantastic matchup that has every type of matchup for all sorts of fans. Georgia comes into this game sporting a 7-5 mark, which is always impressive in the SEC. Meanwhile, Texas A&M enters at 6-6, but is one of the best 6-6 teams in the country.

The matchup I will be most interested to observe will be between A&M QB Jerrod Johnson and WLB Rennie Curran. If I were the DC for Georgia (and they have a new one), I would make Curran the spy on Johnson for the majority of the game. Surprisingly, Johnson weighs about 20 pounds more than Curran, who is one of the best tackling linebackers in the country. He has tremendous quickness and reaction to the ball and the ball carrier. You will also see Curran looking like he is going to “spy,” but then could drop into coverage against a RB or the TE and has significant advantages over both. I think a new scheme like this would be effective especially in light of losing their DC Willie Martinez, whose contract was not renewed. Georgia’s defense vastly underperformed and has been blamed for the 7-5 mark. That should give them renewed motivation for this game.

Texas A&M will counter with Johnson at the helm and more than likely a few wrinkles of their own. As for the running game, keep your eye on the middle of the line of scrimmage. It is here where the game will be won. Whoever wins the battle between the Texas A&M OL and the Georgia defensive front will gain a significant advantage come the 4th quarter when fatigue becomes a bigger presence. Specifically, I want you to keep an eye on Georgia MLB Dowtin. If he has to fight off blocks to make tackles then the A&M OL is winning. If he is firing into the hole and hammering ball carriers than Georgia is winning. It will be that simple in my opinion.

Let's take a look at some of the technical features supporting each team. If you like A&M and systems then check out this system that has gone 19-11 against the money line making 26.3 units since 1999. Play on neutral field dogs versus the money line in a non-conference game between two teams with an experienced QB versus opponent with inexperienced QB. If you believe Georgia will be able to score points and specifically score between 35 and 41 points then you might want to know that Georgia is a solid 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) when they score 35 to 41 points since 1992. Texas A&M is just 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992. Georgia is just 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. A&M is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992.

Tips and Trends

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Vikings (-8, O/U 41.5): All is not well in Minnesota after a storybook beginning to their season. The Vikings have lost 2 of their past 3 games SU, and there are grumblings that QB Brett Favre is wearing down. The Vikings are still an impressive 11-3 SU, but all 3 losses have come on the road this season. Minnesota is 4-3 both SU and ATS this season, with the same result in each road game. The Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS as a favorite greater than 7 PTS this season. Favre had his best game of the season when he faced Chicago earlier this season, throwing for nearly 400 YDS and 3 TDs. RB Adrian Peterson has over 1,200 YDS rushing this season, but he hasn't rushed for more than 100 YDS in any of his past 5 games. Defensively, the Vikings have held 4 of their past 6 opponents to 10 PTS or fewer. The Vikings allow less than 90 rushing YPG, which is 4th in the NFL.

Vikings are 7-1 ATS last 8 games following a SU loss.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - CB Antoine Winfield (foot) is questionable.
G Steve Hutchinson (shoulder) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Bears: Chicago is clearly wanting this season to simply be over, as they've lost 8 of their last 10 games SU. That 10 game stretch also includes losing 9 of their last 10 games ATS, including 7 straight. The Bears are 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS at home this season. Chicago is only 1-7 ATS this year as an underdog. QB Jay Cutler has an NFL high 25 INTs this year, and is on pace to be the first QB in over 20 years to have 30 INTs. Cutler does have 3,100 passing YDS and 19 TDs on the season. RB Matt Forte is the main offensive weapon for the Bears, as he has over 1,000 total YDS this season. However, he is the only skill position player with at least 700 YDS this season. The Bears defense allows 23 PPG, as they struggle to stop the run this year. Chicago allows 128.5 YPG via the ground game. The Bears are playing on revenge, as they lost by 26 PTS earlier this season in Minnesota as 10 point underdogs.

Bears are 0-7 ATS last 7 games overall.
Under is 7-0 last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.

Key Injuries - LB Lance Briggs (back) is questionable.
WR Devin Hester (calf) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 10

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Texas A&M: Texas AM might have only finished the regular season 6-6 SU, but they certainly made their .500 record interesting. The Aggies gave Texas all they could handle in their last game, falling 39-49 to the Longhorns. Texas AM is 1-4 both SU and ATS this season away from home. The Aggies are also 2-2-1 ATS as an underdog this season. QB Jerrod Johnson anchors the overall 5th best offense in the country, averaging 465 YPG this season. Johnson has over 3,600 total YDS himself, including 36 TDs. Texas AM has scored at least 34 PTS in 4 of their past 5 games. Unfortunately, the Aggies defense has held them back this year, as they are 107th in the country in total defense. The Aggies gave up 35 PTS or more in 6 of their 12 games this year. Texas AM has struggled in bowl games of late, losing 10 of their past 12 bowl contests SU.

Texas A&M is 0-5 ATS last 5 neutral site games.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - DB Coryell Judie (shoulder) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Georgia (-6.5, O/U 66): Georgia has won 3 of their past 4 games SU to make yet another bowl this season. Georgia finished the season with a 7-5 SU record. The Bulldogs beat Georgia Tech to end their regular season, easily their best performance of the season. Georgia is 3-3 both SU and ATS away from home this season. The Bulldogs are also only 2-5 ATS as the listed favorite this season. The Bulldogs offense is starting to get in a groove, as they've scored 30 PTS or more in 3 of their past 4 games. With a commitment to the run, Georgia has rushed for an average of 250 YPG on the ground their last 4 games. Senior QB Joe Cox has thrown for over 2,400 YDS with 22 TDs against 14 INTs. The Bulldogs allow nearly 31 PPG on the road this season, and that's one of the reasons why they fired their defensive coordinator. Georgia has had recent success in bowls, winning 12 of their last 15 Bowl contests.

Georgia is 8-3 ATS last 11 bowl games.
Over is 8-3 last 11 neutral site games.

Key Injuries - S Bacarri Rambo (concussion) is probable.
DE Montez Robinson (suspension) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 41 (Side of the Day)