Week 15 NFL games
Thursday, December 17
Colts (13-0) @ Jaguars (7-6)-- Not sure how lomg Indy plays starters here at Jacksonville team fighting for playoff spot; Jags (+7) lost 14-12 in opener at Indy in Week 1, outrushing Colts 114-71 but gaining just 228 yards for game. Colts are 6-0 vs spread on road, winning away games by 4-21-22-36-2-8 pts. Jaguars scored three TDs on last 31 drives; in last five games, they have total of just 17 second half points. Game sold out, first Jacksonville home game to do so this season. Last four Jaguar games stayed under total. Visiting teams are 6-3 vs spread in AFC South games.
Saturday, December 19
Cowboys (8-5) @ Saints (13-0)-- Skidding Dallas allowed 9.1/8.1 ypa in last two games, bad news vs explosive Saints, who gained 7.2+ ypa in six of their last seven games. Pokes lost last two home games, 17-7 at Packers, 31-24 at Giants. In their last seven games, Saint defense gave up five TDs. FG on first drive of game, so they're giving inferior foes a chance. Saints are 4-2 as a homw favorite, winning at home by 18-14-21-8-10-21 pts/ NFC South home faves are 7-3 vs spread in non-division games; NFC East road dogs are 1-3. Five of last six Dallas games stayed under total.
Sunday, December 20
Packers (9-4) @ Steelers (6-7)-- Two teams going in opposite directions, as Pack won last five games, allowing 13.3 ppg in last three, while Steelers are in 0-5 freefall, with losses to lowly Chiefs-Raiders-Browns. Pitt is 19 for last 67 on third down, and defense has three takeaways (no INTs) in last five games, as Polamalu's absence takes its toll. NFC North road teams are 6-9 vs spread out of its division (favorite 12-3 vs spread in those games). AFC North home teams are 8-9. Five of last seven Pittsburgh games, four of last five Packer tilts stayed under the total.
Dolphins (7-6) @ Titans (6-7)-- Red-hot Tennessee won six of last seven, but Young's hamstring injury has this off board as I type this; Titans won four in a row at home, scoring 34.5 ppg; they've run ball for average of 188.9 yards in last eight games. Miami won four of last five games, with three of four wins by four or less points. Fish converted 30 of 62 on third down in last four games, held last two foes under 100 yards rushing. Three of last four games for both teams stayed under total. AFC South home teams are 8-7 vs spread in non-division games, AFC East home teams are 10-6.
Patriots (8-5) @ Bills (5-8)-- NE is 0-5 in true road games this year, only win away from home was over Bucs in England; Patriots won season opener 25-24 in Buffalo (-11.5); Brady was 39-53/368 passing, converting 10-16 third down plays. Buffalo is 2-2 under Fewell, allowing 15.3 ppg, allowing only two TDs on 25 drives in last two games. Under is 7-2 in last nine Buffalo games, 3-0 in Patriots'last three. AFC East home underdogs are 5-1 vs spread. Patriots lost three of last five gmaes; will be interesting to see Moss' level of interest here, after he sleptwalked thru Carolina game last week, and got called on it.
Cardinals (8-5) @ Lions (2-11)-- Long trip on short week for Redbird squad that was awful in loss at Candlestick Monday; Arizona is on road for fourth time in last five weeks- their loss to 49ers was just second in seven games on road, but second in row. Detroit gave up 308 rushing yards last week in 48-3 debacle at Baltimore; they've completed less than 50% of passes in each of last three games. Last four Arizona games stayed under total. NFC West favorites are 5-4 vs spread in non-division games (0-0 on road); NFC North underdogs are 5-8, 4-1 at home.
49ers (6-7) @ Eagles (9-4)-- Red-hot Philly won last four games, scoring 32.5 ppg (3-1 vs spread); they're 4-2 at home, 2-2 as home faves, winning at home by 20-19-23-3 points. Eagles scored 12 TDs on last 43 drives, as McNabb has lot of weapons to throw to, and Vick has given spark as Wildcat QB. 49ers are 5-0-1 vs spread this season when dog, but they've lost last five road games, by 3-3-4-6-3 points. Niners close with Lions/Rams; upset here positions them for 9-7 finish. Over is 9-4 in Eagle games this season. NFC East home favorites are 7-7 vs spread. NFC West road dogs are 10-6 vs spread.
Falcons (6-7) @ Jets (7-6)-- Status of both starting QBs has game off board in mid-week; fading Atlanta lost four of last five weeks, taking ball away twice (one INT) in five games. Falcons lost last four road games by 16-9-8-3 points, with 34-31 OT loss to Giants on this field four weeks ago their last road game. Jets won last three games, giving up total of 22 points (one TD on 37 drives, with 16 3/outs). NFC South road dogs are 6-6 vs spread; AFC East favorites are 6-4 vs spread at home. Last three games for both sides stayed under total. Atlanta ran ball for 90-75-61-89 yards in last four games. Not good.
Bears (5-8) @ Ravens (7-6)-- Skidding Chicago is 2-7 since early bye; they've failed to cover six straight and eight of last nine games, going 1-5 on road, 0-4 as road dog- theur only road win was at Seattle, when Hasselbeck sat out with back injury. Ravens are 4-2 as home favorite (5-2 SU) winning home games by 14-31-23-3-45 points. In last five games, Bears gave up average of 149.3 yards on ground, bad news vs Raven squad that ran ball for 308 yards against Lions last week. Last five Bears, six of last seven Raven games stayed under total. NFC North road underdogs are 1-7 vs spread in non-division games.
Browns (2-11) @ Chiefs (3-10)-- KC has already lost at home to Raiders and Bills, they're favored for first time since Week 2 loss to Raiders. Browns had three extra days to prep after upset of hated Steelers; they've covered four in a row, seven of last ten games, are 3-4 as road dog, losing away games by 21-31-13-24-1-9 points. Chiefs lost last three games, scoring 12.3 ppg (four TDs on last 30 drives); they're just 1-6 at home (beat Steelers in OT). AFC North road dogs are 5-5 vs spread in non-division games. AFC West home faves are 3-1 vs spread. Five of last seven Cleveland games stayed under the total.
Texans (6-7) @ Rams (1-12)-- St Louis lost both starting Gs, Bell (hamstring), Incognito (cut after too many dumb penalties); starting RT Smith is out with concussion, so no wonder Ram offense is so feeble (four TDs last 49 drives). Not much home field edge for team that is 6-39 since start of '07; Rams are 0-6 at home, losing by 19-28-36-5-8-10 points (2-4 as home dog). Unsure who QB is for Rams, not that it matters; rookie Null threw five picks in debut, but he's more accurate than Boller. Texans snapped four-game skid last week; they are 3-3 on road this season, with wins by 3-11-21 points.
Bengals (9-4) @ Chargers (10-3)-- Red-hot San Diego won last eight games, are on 16-game December win streak; they covered five of last six games, are 3-3 as home favorite, with home wins by 10-8-8-29 points. Bengals so concerned with Palmer's play that owner went to trainers and asked if his elbow was OK. It is. Bengals are 4-2 on road, but scored 18-17-10 points in last three on road, scoring three TDs on 30 drives. Last week was first time this year a favorite covered a Cincinnati game. AFC North road dogs are 5-5 vs spread outside its division. AFC West home favorites are 3-1 against the spread.
Raiders (4-9) @ Broncos (8-5)-- Denver (-2) won 23-3 at Oakland in Week 3, running ball for 215 yards, outgaining Raiders 372-137; Denver is a home fave for just second time all year (beat Browns 27-6 in Week 2, -3); they're 4-2 at home, with wins by 21-7-3-20 points. Oakland lost QB Gradkowski for year last week (knee) after he emerged as gritty leader, so QB is now huge liability agan, with either Russell/Frye under center. Raiders are 3-3 as road dog, with road losses by 23-37-8-17 points. Home teams are just 2-8 vs spread in AFC West games this year. Under is 9-3-1 in Denver games this season.
Bucs (1-12) @ Seahawks (5-8)-- Favorite is 11-1 vs spread in Seattle games in '09, with Seahawks 4-1 vs spread as favorite this year, winning home games by 28-41-12-3 points (4-2 SU home).Stumbling Tampa Bay lost last five games; they are 3-4 as road underdog, losing road games by 13-3-19-28-2-3-10 points. Seattle already has seven losses by 11+ points; three of their last four games stayed under total, as have Bucs' last four games. Tampa Bay doesn't have a TD in its last two games (25 drives). NFC South dogs are 7-13 vs spread out of its division, 6-6 on road; NFC West home favorites are 5-4.
Vikings (11-2) @ Panthers (5-8)-- Minnesota won five of last six games; they are 4-2 on road, 3-1 as road fave, winning away games by 14-14-28-12 points. Carolina scored just 49 points in last four games (three TDs on last 42 drives); Panthers are 3-3 at home, with home losses by 28-11-7 points. Carolina does have eight takeaways in last two games (+6). None of Minnesota's last seven games was won by less than 10 points. Last four games for both sides stayed under total. NFC North road favorites are 5-2 vs spread outside its division; NFC South underdogs are 7-13 vs spread, 1-7 at home.
Monday, December 21
Giants (7-6) @ Redskins (4-9)-- Big Blue lost six of last eight games, allowing average of 32.4 ppg; they've given up 31 TDs on opponents' last 90 drives; in season opener, Giants (-6.5) beat Redskins 23-17, with Manning averaging a hefty 8.3 yds/pass attempt. Redskins covered last five games (2-3 SU); their last three losses are by 1-3-3 points. Skins are 3-3 at home, with the dog 5-1 vs spread in those games. Six of last seven Washington games went over total, as have nine of 13 Giant games. Underdog is 8-2 vs spread in NFC East tilts this season, road teams are also 8-2.
Trend Setters - Week 15
By Kevin Rogers
It's never easy handicapping the NFL with favorites and underdogs fluctuating on a weekly basis. The 'chalk' went 10-6 ATS last week following a 6-10 ATS mark by favorites in Week 12. The time is here to dissect the top trends for Week 15, including the Patriots heading to Orchard Park.
Patriots (-7, 40½) at Bills
New England looks for its first win outside of Foxboro in the continental United States this Sunday, traveling to Buffalo to battle the Bills. The Patriots own a one-game lead in the AFC East over both the Dolphins and Jets with three games to go. Buffalo is trying to salvage a lost season, winning two of its last three to improve to 5-8.
The Bills have not had much luck with the Patriots since Bill Belichick took over the reins in New England. Buffalo is 3-9 ATS and 0-12 SU the last 12 meetings with New England, including an 0-5 SU/ATS mark the last five at home in this series. The Bills haven't responded well at home off a road victory, compiling a 2-5 ATS mark since 2006.
Despite falling at Miami two weeks ago, the Pats own an 8-1 ATS record the last nine as road favorites of four points or more against division foes. New England has slumped recently on the offensive end, scoring 21 points or less in three straight games. This is actually a good thing for Pats' backers this Sunday, as New England is 4-1 ATS under Belichick coming off three consecutive contests tallying less than 21 points.
Falcons at Jets (-5)
Atlanta has completely fallen apart at the seams, dropping four of five, with the lone victory coming over the 1-12 Buccaneers. The Falcons need a miracle to get in the NFC playoffs, while Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are still banged-up. The Jets, meanwhile, have quietly snuck back into the AFC Wild Card chase, tied with the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Ravens at 7-6.
New York has succeeded at home against NFC opponents, putting together a 7-3 ATS mark since 2004. In the same span, the Jets have struggled in December as a favorite, owning a 3-7 ATS ledger.
The Falcons have lost two straight, but that has not stopped Mike Smith's team from cashing. Atlanta is 9-2 ATS off a SU defeat in the Smith tenure, and 11-2 ATS since December 2007. The Falcons own a perfect 7-0 ATS mark in December as underdogs off a SU loss against an opponent off a double-digit SU win.
49ers at Eagles (-8½, 42½)
Both these teams are coming off division victories, as the Niners and Eagles hook up in Philadelphia. San Francisco knocked off Arizona for the second time this season on Monday Night, but the Niners are still on the outside looking in the playoff race at 6-7. The Eagles control their own destiny inside the NFC East, owning a 9-4 record after holding off the Giants on Sunday night.
Mike Singletary has been straight money as an underdog since taking over in San Francisco last November. The Niners are 8-1-2 ATS when receiving points, including a 5-1-2 ATS mark as road 'dogs. San Francisco possesses a 4-0 ATS ledger under "Samurai Mike" off a SU win as an underdog.
The Eagles will likely not have a letdown this week, as Philadelphia brings a 10-1 ATS mark the last 11 games following a road divisional contest. December has been a solid month for Andy Reid's squad, with the Eagles going 7-2 ATS the last nine games in the season's final month.
Bears at Ravens (-11, 40½)
Baltimore bounced back nicely from a Monday Night setback at Green Bay by drilling Detroit, as the Ravens are right in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. The Bears, meanwhile, have been a huge disappointment in Jay Cutler's first season as quarterback in the Windy City, sitting at 5-8.
Chicago is very unappealing against the number, especially as an underdog. The Bears have failed to cover eight of their last nine games, including a 1-6 ATS record as a 'dog. Lovie Smith's team isn't scoring points, but isn't playing too bad defensively, either. Chicago has finished 'under' the total in five straight games.
The Ravens own a terrific record as a favorite under John Harbaugh, cashing on nine of 12 occasions. Baltimore easily covered in last week's blowout of Detroit, and that situation sets up nicely. The Ravens are 7-4 ATS in Harbaurgh's tenure off a SU/ATS win.
Texans (-10, 43) at Rams
This isn't exactly the most attractive matchup on the board, but if you can bet on it, mine as well give it a look. Houston snapped a four-game skid with a thrashing of Seattle last Sunday to improve to 6-7. St. Louis continues to have a miserable season, falling 47-7 at Tennessee to drop to 1-12.
How bad has the last two-plus years been for the Rams? Sunday's game against the Texans will mark the 35th consecutive game St. Louis will be listed as an underdog. The Rams are 14-20 ATS in this span, hitting at a 41% clip. St. Louis is just 6-15 ATS the last 21 games as a home 'dog and 1-5 ATS the last six at home against AFC opponents.
The Texans have struggled in the role of a road team off a home victory, going 5-15 ATS in franchise history. Houston is 1-1 in this situation in '09, losing at Arizona, but they did beat Buffalo. Gary Kubiak's team has done well at home in December, but on the road has been a different story, compiling a 1-5 ATS mark the last six.
vegasinsider.com
Week 15 Breakdown
By Bodog
The heavy favorites are back with a vengeance in the NFL. After the “chalk” went 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS last week, the odds we put up so far for Week 15 include just three contests that have a spread that is less than seven-points. Now those numbers will change as the board begins to fill up. For example, we’ve got a game coming up on Thursday night that should be a close one – depending on how hard the Indianapolis Colts want to play.
Lucky Thirteen
The Colts have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs at 13-0 straight up and 9-3-1 against the spread. Yet this is a club that has routinely rested its starters once the clinch all there is to clinch. Indianapolis’ head coach Jim Caldwell has told reporters that all his “healthy” starters would suit up to face the Jacksonville (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS) on Thursday night. What qualifies as “healthy” though? The list of players considered “probable” for Thursday features QB Peyton Manning (gluteus) and WR Pierre Garcon (knee), while RB Joseph Addai (knee) is questionable and WR Reggie Wayne (foot) is undetermined. The odds are good that all four will start on Thursday after participating in Tuesday’s practice.
As we get closer to Week 17, the closer we are to watching Indy send out its backup signal caller. Normally that would be Jim Sorgi (shoulder), but he is on injured reserve. That means we’ll see former Purdue gunslinger Curtis Painter make his NFL debut at some point. It could even be Thursday night. Keep checking the football betting lines at Bodog Sports for more on this matchup; live betting will be available as we watch along on the NFL Network (8:20 p.m. Eastern).
Losman Lives
It remains to be seen who will be under center for Oakland (4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS) as they head to Denver for an AFC West showdown with the Broncos (8-5 SU and ATS). Regardless of who gets the starting nod, the Raiders have been made 14-point road underdogs with a total of 37. Coach Tom Cable is forced into making a switch after QB Bruce Gradkowski sprained both his knees in last week’s loss to Washington. Cable’s options are former starter JaMarcus Russell, veteran third-stringer Charlie Frye, and the leader of your UFL champion Las Vegas Locomotives, J.P. Losman. He signed on Tuesday as a free agent.
The team hasn’t come out and said it, but they have no confidence in sending Russell out to play. He was sacked six times by the Redskins after replacing Gradkowski for the second half. That would leave Frye (16 TDs, 25 INTs, 70.5 passer rating lifetime) as Sunday’s likely starter, while Losman gets acclimatized to Oakland’s offense. The Raiders were 2-1 SU and ATS behind Gradkowski before he was injured.
Ware and Tear
The Cowboys (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) are determined to give New Orleans (13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS) its first loss of the season when they meet on Saturday night in what could be a possible playoff matchup. Dallas still doesn’t know if they’ll have its best defender on the field. Linebacker DeMarcus Ware appeared to have suffered a serious neck injury last week against the San Diego Chargers. The hospital tests showed that there was no structural damage, and Ware was lifting weights on Tuesday. Clearly, the linebacker is looking to play this weekend - provided he gets clearance from team doctors. Dallas was a 7-point ‘dog (-120) at press time with a total of 53.
The Cowboys also have a decision to make with who will be handling the kicking duties. Nick Folk is on the hot seat after missing six of his last nine field goal attempts. It’s not like Dallas hasn’t tried to help him out, changing holders for Folk, using quarterback Tony Romo over punter Matt McBriar. The next move would be to change kickers. Rookie David Buehler has improved the Dallas special teams unit by handling kick-offs; the USC product is sharing practice kicks with Folk this week in preparation for New Orleans. Neither specialist looked particularly impressive during the portion of Tuesday’s practice that was open to the media. Special teams coach Joe DeCamillis says Dallas is not interested in free agents Jason Elam or former Cowboy Shaun Suisham. The kicking situation in New Orleans is also in flux with Garrett Hartley playing the last two games in place of John Carney and shanking a PAT last week in Atlanta.
NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 15
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-7)
Why Cowboys cover: Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. NFC. New Orleans has struggled with shaky performances in their last couple of weeks.
Why Saints cover: They've won and covered in each of the last five meetings. They’re expected to get both Mike Bell and Lance Moore back from injuries. DeMarcus Ware (nine sacks) might not play due to a neck sprain suffered last week. With back-to-back losses to New York and San Diego, Dallas' annual December swoon is in effect once again.
Total (53.5): Under is 5-1 in Cowboys' last six games overall.
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-10)
Why Bears cover: They've won two of three meetings. Baltimore's offensive line is banged up.
Why Ravens cover: They're 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. Bears leading receiver Devin Hester will be a game time decision because of a calf injury.
Total (40.5): Under is 5-0 in Chicago’s last five games.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7)
Why Patriots cover: They've won 12 straight meetings. They're 5-1 ATS in the last six against the Bills and 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Buffalo. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
Why Bills cover: Patriots are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games. Randy Moss looked like he gave up last week and could spiral downward with all the controversy surrounding him. Bills covered as 13-point underdogs in a 24-25 loss in Week 1. Patriots have lost three straight road games.
Total (40.5): Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings and 8-3 in the last 11 matchups in Buffalo.
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+11.5)
Why Cardinals cover: They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Favorite is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings. Detroit will be without leading rusher Kevin Smith who has a torn ACL and QB Matthew Stafford. Daunte Culpepper (57.1 rating) has been terrible in place of Stafford.
Why Lions cover: Home team is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings. Kicker Neil Rackers will not play for Arizona because of a groin injury. WR Larry Fitzgerald will be limited by a knee sprain he suffered last week.
Total (46.5): Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-1)
Why Browns cover: They're 4-1 ATS in the last five road games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. They are 4-1 ATS since Brady Quinn has reclaimed the staring QB role.
Why Chiefs cover: RB Jamaal Charles is averaging 5.3 yards per carry since talking over for Larry Johnson and has five touchdowns in his last five games. He gets to face Cleveland's 29th-ranked rush defense. With Mike Holmgren visiting Cleveland this week, current coach Eric Mangini's confidence could be shaken.
Total (36.5): Over is 9-3-2 in Chiefs' last 14 home games.
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets (-6)
Why Falcons cover: They've won three of the last four meetings. They're 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. They could get leading rusher Michael Turner back from his ankle injury. Chris Redman has played surprisingly well in place of Matt Ryan.
Why Jets cover: They're 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Darrelle Revis has become one of the best shut down corners in the league and he’ll likely prevent Atlanta wideout Roddy White from having a big day. New York has the NFL's best defense and rushing attack.
Total (40): Over is 5-0 in Falcons' last five road games.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)
Why 49ers cover: Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. They need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive and they’re coming off convincing 24-9 victory over Arizona as 4-point underdogs.
Why Eagles cover: They've won four of the past five meetings. Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Big play threat DeSean Jackson should exploit the 49ers’ 27th-ranked pass defense. San Fran has dropped five straight road games.
Total (43.5): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
Houston Texans at St. Louis Rams (+12.5)
Why Texans cover: They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Mario Williams has really stepped of his play lately and will face a Rams team that has allowed 26 sacks this season. St. Louis has not won a game at home this season. With Marc Bulger out and Kyle Boller hurt and sick, Keith Null, who threw five picks last week, could start at QB for the Rams. Rams are also dealing with swine flu.
Why Rams cover: Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on turf. Steven Jackson could dominate Houston's 20th-ranked rush defense.
Total (43.5): Under is 5-0 in Texans' last five road games and 5-1 in their last six games overall.
Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-4)
Why Dolphins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Titans are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Vince Young might not be able to play because of a hamstring injury. Ricky Williams has averaged 104 yards per game since replacing injured Ronnie Brown.
Why Titans cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. RB Chris Johnson has been unstoppable and will test a Miami defense that allows over 106 rushing yards per game. Chad Henne's favorite target, Davone Bess has a sprained ankle.
Total (43): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14)
Why Raiders cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Denver and 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings overall. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Why Broncos cover: They've won six of the last eight meetings. Charlie Frye, who has only attempted 33 passes since 2006, will start at QB for Oakland. Brandon Marshall (21 catches, 200 yards) is coming off a record setting performance against one of the league's better pass defenses.
Total (37): Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings and 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Denver.
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-6.5)
Why Bengals cover: Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Shawne Merriman is dealing with plantar fasciitis in his foot. Carson Palmer threw for 440 yards and three touchdowns in his last game against SD. Team will be inspired to play well for WR Chris Henry who passed away this week.
Why Chargers cover: They've won seven of the last nine meetings. San Diego is on a roll right now winning eight straight (6-2 ATS) and outscoring its opponents by an average of 14 points per game during the streak.
Total (44): Over is 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
Why Buccaneers cover: Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck continues to battle injuries on a weekly basis. Seattle has the league's 29th-ranked pass defense.
Why Seahawks cover: Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings. Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman is really in a funk. He has zero touchdowns and eight interceptions in his last two games. The Seahawks have outscored their opponents by 54 points in six home games.
Total (39.5): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
Why Packers cover: They're 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games. Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. CB Charles Woodson is having the best season of his career and could make it hard on Pittsburgh's banged up receivers. The Steelers are reeling, having lost five straight games.
Why Steelers cover: They've won six of the last nine meetings. They're 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked a league leading 47 times. RB Ryan Grant could have a tough time going against the NFL's top rush defense.
Total (39.5): Under is 4-1 in Packers' last five games.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (+7)
Why Vikings cover: Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Carolina will be without both starting tackles. Carolina depends heavily on its running game which could struggle against the NFC's second-ranked rush defense.
Why Panthers cover: They're 2-0 ATS with Matt Moore at quarterback. Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Minnesota could be without standout rookie Percy Harvin. Due to injuries and suspensions, Minnesota's linebackers are depleted. Adrian Peterson hasn't cracked 100 yards rushing in his last four games.
Total (42.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+3)
Why Giants cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in Washington and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. Eli Manning is averaging 311 passing yards per game and has thrown eight TD passes since the Giants' Week 10 bye.
Why Redskins cover: They're 5-0 ATS in their last five games. Giants are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. They are expected to get Pro Bowl defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth back from his ankle injury. New York's secondary has allowed 19 touchdown passes in the last eight games.
Total (42): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Total Talk - Week 15
By Chris David
Week 14 Recap
The ‘under’ run in the NFL continued last weekend with a record of 11-4-1. The closing number on the Broncos and Colts closed at 44 according to our numbers but players taking the ‘over’ early may have gotten a winner as Indianapolis improved to 13-0 with a 28-16 victory.
Surprisingly, three of the ‘over’ tickets that cashed had total of 40 or lower. Blowout victories by Baltimore over Detroit (48-3) and Tennessee against St. Louis (47-7) saw closing numbers of 40 get jumped. Another whitewashing that went ‘over’ was the Redskins’ 34-13 road victory at Oakland, and the total on this contest was 37.5.
After witnessing Washington put up 30 and 34 in its last two weeks, dare we say Jim Zorn’s magic is finally coming together?
Tallying up the past three weeks, the ‘under’ has gone 33-14-1 (70%). And the weather hasn’t even played a serious factor yet in December. On the year, the ‘under’ stands at 110-94-3 (54%).
Finally, an OVER on Thursday
The Colts’ 35-31 victory against the Jaguars this past Thursday not only helped Indianapolis improve to 14-0, but the combined 66 points helped the ‘over’ snap an eight-game ‘under’ run on the nationally televised midweek clash. No games will be played next Thursday, but the Chargers and Titans square off in a Christmas battle on Friday. This will be the last midweek battle of the regular season.
Saturday Night in the Big Easy
Dallas and New Orleans meet from Louisiana on Saturday Night and total players could be scratching their head on this number. Oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com opened the total at 52.5 and it’s already up to 53.5, which could be a little surprising considering this year’s trends. Even though the stats might warrant an ‘over’ wager on paper, totals of 50 points or higher this year have watched the ‘under’ go 8-2. The Cowboys have seen five of their last six games go ‘under’ the number while the Saints have watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 in their last six. Despite those runs, gamblers should be aware that New Orleans has played three games against the NFC East this year and all three went ‘over’ the total, fairly easily too. The Cowboys have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 in their three meetings against the NFC South this season.
Divisional Battles
Week 15 only has four divisional matchups on tap and one is in the books, with the Jags and Colts playing on Thursday. The Giants-Redskins matchup concludes on Monday (see below), which leaves us with two on Sunday. Let’s take a quick look at the pair.
New England at Buffalo: Two of the last three in this series has gone ‘under’ the total and it could easily be 3-0 if it wasn’t for a lucky win in Week 1 this season. The Patriots edged the Bills 25-24, and the combined 49 points barely went ‘over’ the closing number of 47 with the help of 12 points scored by New England in the final two minutes. The Bills (8-5) and Patriots (9-4) have both been ‘under’ teams all season long, in particular New England on the road. Bill Belichick’s team is only 1-5 SU outside of Foxboro and a lot of the issues point to the offense. In the six road games, the team has been held to 21 or less in four of them. The ‘under’ is 5-1 in those games. Buffalo has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 at home. Last year, the Patriots blanked the Bills 13-0 in balmy conditions at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Inclement weather is expected again, so look for the number to drop on this game by kickoff.
Oakland at Denver: The Broncos have watched the ‘under’ go 6-0 at home this year and it’s hard to imagine this game going ‘over’, especially with the Raiders’ offense (12.7 PPG) using a backup quarterback (Charlie Frye). On the road this year, Oakland has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 and it could be 5-1 if it wasn’t for the team’s explosion at Pittsburgh (27) in Week 13. The Raiders’ defense hasn’t been too great the past three weeks, giving up 24, 24 and 34 points. The last two meetings between Denver and Oakland have gone ‘under’ the total, which includes the first encounter this year. The Broncos captured a 23-3 victory at Oakland on Sept. 27 and the total of 38 was never threatened.
Weather Woes on the East Coast
This is probably going to be the week that Mother Nature will flex its muscle. Always stay abreast with the latest updates HERE, but expect the below matchups to be affected greatly according to our friends at LVSC.
Green Bay at Pittsburgh: Wind Chill 18 degrees; 3-5 inches of snow expected.
New England at Buffalo: Wind Chill 14 degrees.
San Francisco at Philadelphia: Wind Chill 22 degrees; 4-7 inches of snow expected. This game will start at 4:15 p.m. EST, opposed to 1:00 p.m. EST due to the weather.
Atlanta at N.Y. Jets: Wind Chill 19 degrees; 3-6 inches of snow expected.
Chicago at Baltimore: Wind Chill 23 degrees; 7-10 inches of snow expected. Bears had their flight cancelled twice due to the weather. This game will start at 4:15 p.m. EST, opposed to 1:00 p.m. EST due to the weather.
Quick Hitters
-- Arizona has watched the ‘under’ go 4-0 in its last four games.
-- The Titans are averaging 29.8 PPG since Vince Young took over QB duties. Philadelphia has seen the ‘over’ go 5-1 at home.
-- The Falcons (3-1) and Jets (4-0) have both been solid ‘under’ looks the past four weeks.
-- Chicago has played six road games and its scored 15 points or less in five of them.
-- The ‘over’ has gone 9-4 in Kansas City’s games this year, including 5-2 at Arrowhead.
-- St. Louis has seen the ‘over’ go 5-1 at home but it will be starting a third-string QB on Sunday.
-- The Chargers have put up 23 or more in their six home games, which has helped the ‘over’ go 4-2.
-- Tampa Bay has scored seven or less in its last four games – the ‘under’ is 4-0 during this stretch
Seven Straight?
What a strange year it’s been for total players on Monday Night Football? The ‘over’ cashed the first eight weeks of the season albeit with some lucky breaks, but now the ‘under’ has roared back with six consecutive winning tickets. Will we see Lucky No. 7 this week?
The Giants and Redskins will be put to the test and both clubs have been lighting up the scoreboard lately. New York’s defense was exposed in Week 6 against the Saints, a game they lost 48-27. Prior to that defeat, the G-Men were 5-0 and gave up an average 14.2 PPG during that span. Since then, New York hasn’t held anybody under 20. The Giants have seen the ‘over’ go 9-4.
As mentioned above in the recap section, Washington is starting to turn up the heat. QB Jason Campbell has thrown for seven touchdowns and 820 yards in the last three games. The Redskins have seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in their last seven.
The two teams met in Week 1 at Giants Stadium, with New York capturing a 23-17 over Washington. The combined 40 points slid ‘over’ the closing number on a late Redskins score. The game also featured a defensive touchdown by N.Y. and a fake field goal, which resulted in another seven.
Prior to this affair, the ‘under’ had cashed in the previous four encounters between the two NFC East rivals.
Fearless Predictions
On the year, the Best Bets are 13-14-1 (-240) and our teasers haven’t been close at 3-10-1 (-700). Even if we win out the rest of the way in the regular season, it appears the goal of turning a profit is loss. The deficit has reached -940 based on one-unit plays. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!
Best Over: Bengals-Chargers 43
Best Under: Falcons-Jets 38
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Bengals-Chargers 34
Under Falcons-Jets 47
Over Patriots-Bills 49.5
What Bettors Need To Know: Vikings at Panthers
By JON KUIPERIJ
The playoff-bound Minnesota Vikings may have already locked up their second straight NFC North title by the time they kick off against the Carolina Panthers Sunday night.
Minnesota (11-2, 8-4-1 against the spread), coming off an impressive 30-10 win over the Bengals, would clinch the division with a Green Bay loss at Pittsburgh Sunday afternoon or a victory over Carolina.
The Panthers (5-8 SU, 6-7 ATS) are out of playoff contention after losing their past three games, including a 20-10 decision at New England last week.
Line movement
The Vikings opened as 7-point favorites but have since moved to 9-point chalk. The total was posted at 42 and has gone up a point to 43.
Injury report
The Vikings could be without one of Brett Favre's favorite targets, rookie Percy Harvin. The speedster, second on the team with 681 receiving yards and six touchdowns, sat out last week due to migraine headaches and his status for Sunday is uncertain. Harvin is also a dangerous weapon on special teams, ranking second in the league with 29 yards per kickoff return and two TDs.
The injury-plagued Panthers will again be without quarterback Jake Delhomme, who has missed the last two games with a broken finger. Carolina also lost right tackle Jeff Otah to a season-ending knee injury last week, meaning rookie Geoff Schwartz will get his first NFL start. Receiver Muhsin Muhammad (knee) and running back Jonathan Stewart (toe) are banged up, but are listed as probable. Defensively, corner Richard Marshall is questionable (ankle).
Weather
The temperature in Charlotte could dip down to as low as the mid-20s Sunday night. Rain is not in the forecast.
Favre from perfect
Favre's recent mediocre play has brought back memories of his late-season swoon of a year ago.
The aging gunslinger has been intercepted three times in the last two weeks, matching the number of picks he tossed in the first 11 games of the year. His outing last week against Cincinnati was the only time this season he's failed to throw for 200 yards.
Last year, Favre threw nine interceptions in his final five games. The Jets went 1-4 in those games and missed the playoffs after an 8-3 start. It was later discovered that Favre was playing with a torn biceps tendon during that stretch.
"I don't think I'm falling apart in December like most people seem to think," Favre said last week. "I don't feel much different than most guys in that locker room at this stage of the season."
Strength against strength
Carolina's only success on offense this year has come on the ground. Led by featured back DeAngelo Williams, the Panthers have the league's fourth-best running game with 149.9 yards per contest.
The Vikings, meanwhile, are known for their rushing defense. Minnesota allows only 86.9 rushing yards a game, ranking fourth in the NFL.
If the Vikes manage to stuff Williams and the Panthers' running attack, it could be a long night for Carolina. The Panthers' passing game averages less than 170 yards per contest and will be directed by backup Matt Moore for the third straight week.
Trends
Both the favorite and the home team have gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between the teams.
Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine December contests, while the Vikings are 2-7 ATS in their last nine December games.
The under has cashed in Minny's last five games overall and is 7-2-1 in the Vikings' last 10 games as a road favorite. The Panthers have gone under in their last four home games and in each of their last nine home games against teams with winning road records.
What Bettors Need To Know: New Orleans Bowl
By The Prez
How They Got Here
Sunday night’s game at the Louisiana Superdome is just the second bowl game for Middle Tennessee State since 1964. Southern Miss, meanwhile, is in its eighth consecutive bowl game and second straight New Orleans Bowl. It’s the first-ever meeting between the schools.
MTSU (9-3, 9-3 ATS) has had one of the better seasons in school history -- the Blue Raiders’ nine wins were their most in the regular season in 17 years and their seven conference wins the most since they joined the Sun Belt. MTSU actually holds the sixth-longest winning streak in the country at six victories in a row.
Southern Miss (7-5, 6-5 ATS) no doubt had bigger plans than the New Orleans Bowl yet again with BCS-caliber talent like RB Damion Fletcher and WR DeAndre Brown back this season. Still, the team earned its 15th consecutive winning season and nearly got into the C-USA championship game.
Scouting Report
The Golden Eagles had injury problems this year, which contributed to the mediocre record. Fletcher missed a loss to UAB because of injury and starting QB Austin Davis was lost after the fifth game.
Brown never seemed to be 100 percent most of this season after suffering a gruesome broken leg in last year’s New Orleans Bowl OT win over Troy. He did seem to finally get back to normal in the final three games of the regular season with 14 catches for 338 yards and three scores. He was huge in the season finale against East Carolina, which USM lost 25-20 with a spot in the C-USA title game on the line.
Fletcher is one of the most underrated backs in the country and has run for 5,224 yards and 44 touchdowns in his career. He is 63 yards shy of becoming the ninth player in FBS history to record four 1,000-yard seasons.
Martevious Young took over at QB for Davis and has been very good, passing for 1,590 yards, 13 touchdowns and just one interception. The Golden Eagles put up more than 5,000 total yards of offense for the third straight season. On defense, USM is strong against the run (No. 32) but weak against the pass (No. 113).
MTSU runs a spread offense paced by QB Dwight Dasher, who threw for 2,627 yards and 21 touchdowns, and rushed for a team-best 953 yards. He ranks ninth in the nation in total offense.
MTSU is averaging 41.2 ppg and nearly 470 yards during its win streak. The Blue Raiders defense is led by Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Chris McCoy, who led the team in sacks (7) and tackles for loss (20). He also blocked a field goal at Maryland (a win for MTSU), recovered a fumble and scored at Clemson. MTSU is among the nation’s leaders in sacks.
Line movement
USM is currently a 3.5-point favorite, and that’s been pretty steady at most books. The current total of 57.5 is down on average 1.5 points from the open. Approximately 65 percent of the public lean is on Southern Miss.
In closing
These two teams have one common opponent, but there’s not too much you can read into that. MTSU beat Memphis, 31-14, at home on Sept. 12, while the Golden Eagles beat the Tigers, 36-16, at home on Oct. 17.
MTSU’s dual-threat Dasher is similar to UAB quarterback Joe Webb, and he killed Southern Miss with his feet in a 30-17 Blazers victory. Another dual-threat QB, Virginia’s Jameel Sewell, torched the Golden Eagles through the air. There could be a trend there.
If Southern Miss is motivated, it should cover easily. But playing in the same lower-tier bowl for the fourth time in six seasons when you clearly had different goals has to cause some issues. MTSU, meanwhile, is more than happy to be playing in the postseason.
New Orleans Bowl Preview
By Brian Edwards
If the Vikings and Panthers aren’t doing it for you Sunday night, you have another gambling option. Even if Minnesota’s trip to Carolina does work, you can get in on additional action for the New Orleans Bowl at the Superdome.
Just 24 hours after the Saints and Cowboys go at it in the Big Easy, Southern Miss and Middle Tennessee will collide at the same venue. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Golden Eagles as six-point favorites with a total of 58.
As of Saturday afternoon, most books had Southern Miss (7-5 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) listed as a 3 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total either at 58 or 58 1/2. Bettors can take Middle Tennessee (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS) to win outright for a plus-150 return (risk $100 to win $150).
Larry Fedora’s team has won four of its last six games, cashing tickets at a 5-1 clip during that span. The regular season ended on a disappointing note when East Carolina beat the Golden Eagles by a 25-20 count. Nevertheless, Southern Miss hooked up its backers as a 6 ½-point road underdog.
Since losing back-to-back games to Troy and Mississippi State, Middle Tennessee has won six in a row both SU and ATS. Although each of those victories came against Sun Belt competition, bettors should note that five of the wins came by 17 points or more.
MTSU is averaging 41.2 points per game during its six-game surge. The offense has thrived under the direction of offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, who enjoyed big-time success at Troy before last year’s disaster in Auburn. Remember, Franklin was made the scapegoat and fired by Tommy Tuberville after a loss to Vandy last October.
Junior quarterback Dwight Dasher has been the catalyst for MTSU’s offense. Dasher led the team in rushing with 953 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. He also beat opponents with his arm, throwing for 2,627 yards with a 21/14 touchdown-interception ratio.
With senior running back Phillip Tanner going down in Week 2 with a season-ending injury, sophomore RB D.D. Keyes emerged to enjoy a breakout campaign. Keyes produced 822 rushing yards and three TDs on 127 carries during the regular season. That was good for an outstanding 6.5 YPC average.
So. Miss returns to the New Orleans Bowl where it beat Troy 30-27 in overtime as a 4 ½-point underdog last season. Just like last year, the Golden Eagles won’t get inside the Superdome until game day. Since the field was being painted Friday for the Saints’ Saturday night game, So. Miss was forced to practice at Tulane. However, Fedora wasn’t concerned about it.
“We had a great practice,” Fedora told the Hattiesburg American. “We were going to try to go over to the Superdome, but it didn’t work out. It was no big deal. Our guys came out and practiced hard and got a lot of polish in. We’ll get our walk-throughs (Saturday) and we’ll be ready to go.”
This will be the last hoorah for senior running back Damion Fletcher, who became the school’s all-time leading rusher (by 700-plus yards) as a junior. Fletcher has added on to those numbers in 2009, rushing for 937 yards and eight touchdowns on 202 carries. For his career, he has 5,224 rushing yards and 44 TDs.
So. Miss looked like it might be in trouble when sophomore QB Austin Davis (10/2 TD-INT) went down with a season-ending injury in October. But Fedora simply plugged in junior QB Martevious Young and the offense kept clicking.
Young has played so well that there’s certainly going to be a QB controversy this spring and/or next fall. He has connected on 58.2 percent of his throws for 1,590 yards with an incredible 13/1 TD-INT ratio. Young also brings a scrambling dynamic to the mix, as evidenced by 70 rushing yards and one TD in a 50-43 loss at Houston. He also had 59 rushing yards in a 44-34 home win over Tulsa.
When Young looks to throw, he has one of the country’s most underrated wideouts to look for in sophomore DeAndre Brown, a four-star recruit who chose So. Miss over LSU. Brown has 43 receptions for 720 yards and seven TDs. In his last two games, Brown has 10 receptions for 280 yards and two TDs.
For those of you who don’t follow C-USA or the Sun Belt much, let’s give you a better idea about these teams by going over who they faced in non-conference play. So. Miss played on the road against a team from the Big 12 and the Big East, in addition to hosting an ACC school.
The Golden Eagles beat Virginia 37-34 but never threatened to cover the ‘chalky’ 13 ½-point number. They lost 35-28 at Kansas but took the cash as 11 ½-point road underdogs. Finally, Fedora’s bunch lost a 25-23 heartbreaker at Louisville as 2 ½-point road favorites.
As for MTSU, it opened the season by losing 37-14 at Clemson as an 18 ½-point road underdog. In Week 2, the Blue Raiders bounced back to beat Memphis from out of C-USA 31-14 as one-point home underdogs. Next, they went to College Park and knocked off Maryland for a second straight year. MTSU edged the Terrapins 32-31 as a seven-point road underdog.
Rick Stockstill’s team hosted Mississippi St. on Oct. 17, but the Bulldogs bullied their way to a 27-6 victory as a five-point road favorite.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--If the 30-17 loss at UAB as an 11-point favorite stands out to you when looking at the Golden Eagles’ ATS log, don’t put too much emphasis on it. That’s because Fletcher and Brown both missed the UAB game nursing injuries.
--So. Miss has had all sorts of kicking problems this year, prompting Fedora to think about going for two-point conversions and bypassing field goals. The Golden Eagles have missed 10 extra points this year and have a failed PAT in six straight games.
--Earlier this week, Florida head coach Urban Meyer told Pat Dooley of the Gainesville Sun that reports of Ole Miss defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix being offered the same position at UF were false. Meyer did acknowledge speaking with Nix, who is staying with the Rebels. Meyer continues to look for the coach who will replace Charlie Strong, who is now the head coach at Louisville but will coach for the Gators in the Sugar Bowl vs. Cincinnati.
--Auburn RB Eric Smith has been ruled academically ineligible and will not play in the team’s bowl game against Northwestern.
vegasinsider.com
Week 15 NFL Betting Preview
By Vernon Croy
We are getting close to the end of the regular season and many fans have officially given up on their teams for the year. Other fans are still glued to the games as part of their team's playoff race. We still have two undefeated teams which many are speculating could lead to a Super Bowl of unbeaten teams. So what should we expect out of Week 15 in the NFL? Here are a few things to watch out for.
Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh -2). The Steelers are somehow the favorites in this game even though they have recently lost to the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns. I hope the Steelers realize that they are not playing a team as bad as the Browns this week. The Packers represent a very strong team that is trying to make a push for the playoffs. The Steelers are hoping that someone else collapses and they somehow back their way into the tournament.
New England vs. Buffalo (New England -7). The Patriots have been far from themselves lately. They got by the Panthers last weekend, but before that they lost to the Dolphins and didn't even put up a fight against the Saints. The Brady-to-Moss connection has taken quite a hit recently and is a shell of its former self. The Bills are still pretty bad, but they could play the Patriots close.
Arizona vs. Detroit (Arizona -12). After the Cardinals beat down the Vikings the previous week, last week they got killed by the 49ers. This league is crazy like that, so you never really know what to expect. The Cardinals are clearly the better team in this one, but you never know when the Lions are going to show up and play ball.
San Francisco vs. Philadelphia (Philly -8). The Eagles are a very talented team with some great skill players. Desean Jackson is one of the most dynamic players that the league has ever seen. He tied an NFL record last week for the most touchdowns over 50 yards in a season. The Niners do not really have anyone that can match up with him so he just might break the record this week.
Chicago vs. Baltimore (Baltimore -11). The Ravens just came off of a beat down of massive proportions over the Lions last week and this week they get the lowly Bears. The Bears have been pretty bad this year. They can't run the ball with Forte and they definitely can't pass the ball with Cutler at the wheel. Their defense has lost its bite and the Ravens are probably going to be too much for them.
Cleveland vs. Kansas City (Kansas City -2). This marks one of the only times this season that Kansas City has actually been a favorite heading into the game. Despite how bad both of these teams have been this week, they did both manage to beat the Steelers somehow. The Chiefs are the better team, but you never know how they are going to play. "Mangenius" will probably find a way to screw up the game again for the Browns.
Oakland vs. Denver (Denver -14). The Broncos just had a great game against the Colts last week that saw Brandon Marshall set the all-time record for receptions in a game with 21. 21 catches in a game is an unbelievable number of catches. If they decide to pull out that game plan again this week, the Raiders could be in trouble. However, the Raiders have the best cornerback in the league, so that probably will not work as well.
Tampa Bay vs. Seattle (Seattle -6.5). Seattle is coming into this game as the favorite, but their season has not exactly been strong. The Bucs have only managed to win one game and could be the worst team in the league. This one will be a very boring game to watch.
Minnesota vs. Carolina (Minnesota -9). The Panthers gave the Patriots all they could handle last week, but the Vikings are a lot better than the Pats right now. The Vikings had a tough game against the Cardinals, but they are still a very good football team. Expect the Vikings to keep on rolling in this one.
New York Giants vs. Washington (New York -3). The Giants are playing much better football lately. They are a very solid team all around and the Redskins are not that great. The Skins defense will probably keep them in this one, but the offense will not do them any favors.
Tennessee vs. Miami (Tennessee -3). The Titans have officially got their groove back now that Vince Young has taken over the reigns. However, Miami is also a pretty solid team. This should be one of the better games of the week.
New York Jets vs. Atlanta (New York -5). The Jets have had a roller coaster of a year, but have been playing a little better recently. The Falcons have been without Matt Ryan and at times without Michael Turner. This one should be a pretty entertaining game between two mid-level teams.
Houston vs. St. Louis (Houston -10.5). The Texans have had one of the best offenses in the league for the majority of the season. However, as they have gone, they keep getting injured. They lost one of the best tight ends in the league in Owen Daniels early on. Then Steve Slaton went down and Matt Schaub is playing with a bum shoulder. With all that being said, they should easily be able to score on the Rams.
San Diego vs. Cincinnati (San Diego -6.5). This is one of the better matchups of the week with two good teams. The Chargers are on a major roll with eight wins in a row. The Bengals have played well this year and are aiming for a playoff birth. Expect some good football in this one.
Tips and Trends
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers
Bengals: Tough situational spot here for the Bengals after the passing of Chris Henry. This team has shown character all season long, so we will see how they handle adversity today. The Bengals are 9-4 SU on the season, and have played especially well on the road this year. They are 4-2 away from home, including 3 outright wins as underdogs. In fact, the Bengals are 6-1 ATS as underdogs this year. A big reason for this underdog success is their defense. This Bengals defense allows the 2nd fewest points in the NFL at 16.7 PPG. Prior to last week, the Bengals had held 6 straight opponents to 20 PTS or fewer. Offensively, the Bengals have only scored more than 17 PTS twice in their past 6 games. RB Cedric Benson leads this team in rushing, but he is out with an injury. WR Chad Ochocinco is the only Bengals player with more than 500 receiving YDS.
Bengals are 8-1 ATS last 9 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - CB Johnathan Joseph (undisclosed) is questionable.
S Chris Crocker (ankle) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 14
Chargers (-7, O/U 43.5): To say the Chargers are streaking would be an understatement. Outside of the Colts and Saints, nobody is hotter than the Chargers. They've won 8 straight games SU to be 10-3 on the season. In that 8 game winning streak, they are 6-2 ATS, with both their losses ATS coming as double digit favorites. San Diego is 3-3 ATS at home this season, including 4-2 ATS when favored by single digits this season. QB Philip Rivers in having an MVP caliber season, as he's thrown for nearly 3,600 YDS with 22 TDs against 7 INTs. TE Antonio Gates has over 1,000 YDS receiving, and has 3 TDs in his past 3 games. Overall, this Chargers offense averages 27.8 PPG which is 5th best in the NFL. Defensively, San Diego gives up 19.9 PPG. The Chargers haven't allowed any opponent to score more than 23 PTS against them during this current 8 game winning streak.
Chargers are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games following a ATS win.
Key Injuries - C Nick Hardwick (ankle) is doubtful.
LB Shaun Phillips (ankle) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Vikings (-9, O/U 43): With a win today, the Vikings can clinch their division title. It's been a stellar year for the Vikings, as they are 11-2 SU on the season. They are also 8-4-1 ATS this year, including 7-3-1 ATS as the listed favorite. Better yet, the Vikings have only lost once ATS as a favorite of at least a touchdown. Lastly, the Vikings are 4-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. QB Brett Favre has had yet another brilliant season, as he's thrown for more than 3,300 YDS with 27 TDs against 6 INTs. However, 3 of those INT's have come in the past 2 games, as he has just as many INTs as TDs in those 2 games. RB Adrian Peterson has rushed for 1,200 YDS, which ranks him 4th in the NFL. The Vikings defense has only allowed 18.7 PPG this year, including a current 5 game stretch where they've held 4 of their opponents to 10 PTS or fewer.
Vikings are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
Key Injuries - WR Percy Harvin (migraine) is questionable.
CB Karl Paymah (knee) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Panthers: Carolina is simply playing out their season, as they are 5-8 SU this year. They've lost 3 of their past 4 games to lose any hope of making the playoffs. Carolina is 3-3 SU at home this season, including an ATS record of 2-4. The Panthers are 1-1 SU and ATS this season as a home underdog, as they've been 1 point underdogs twice this season at home. The Panthers are 3-1 ATS as a double digit underdog this year. QB Matt Moore has taken over the responsibilities of QB for the Panthers, and he's been merely average his past 2 games. RB DeAngelo Williams leads a rushing attack that is 4th in the NFL with 149 YPG. Williams has over 1,100 rushing YDS along with 7 TD's this season. Defensively, the Panthers are allowing 21.7 PPG this season. This Panthers defense really struggles to stop the run, as they allow 137 rushing YPG, which is the 7th worst in the NFL.
Panthers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 9-0 last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - QB Jake Delhomme (finger) is doubtful.
RB Jonathan Stewart (toe) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 10