Trend Setters - Week 4
By Kevin Rogers
As we look ahead to another week in the NFL, there are a number of solid trends to keep an eye on. With more scenarios unfolding three weeks into the season, not only will we give you trends on certain games, but also include situations with 3-0 and 0-3 teams.
First off, teams hosting 3-0 clubs the last five seasons are just 4-8 ATS, as the teams that qualify here are the Saints, Chiefs, and Patriots. Home teams that take on 0-3 clubs are 7-2 to the 'over' the last five seasons, as the Jaguars, Redskins, and 49ers qualify for this system. Away teams that travel to 3-0 clubs haven't fared well over the last five seasons, going 3-11 SU and 6-8 ATS. Teams that fall under this particular system are the Jets, Packers, and Seahawks.
Giants (-9, 42) at Chiefs - 1:00 PM EST
The Giants have looked strong out of the gate, starting 3-0, heading to 0-3 Kansas City. New York is laying plenty of points at Arrowhead, but that hasn't been a problem for the G-Men in the past. Since Tom Coughlin arrived in 2004, the Giants are 12-5 ATS as road favorites, while compiling a 29-14-1 ATS mark away from the Meadowlands.
This will be the third consecutive road contest for New York, following victories at Dallas and Tampa Bay. The last five seasons, teams playing their third straight road game are 19-8-2 to the 'over,' including a perfect 5-0 mark last season.
The Chiefs have been a horrible home play since 2007, going 4-12-1 ATS at Arrowhead. Despite all the personnel and coaching changes over the years, Kansas City has the cashed the 'over' in seven of the last nine home games against NFC opponents.
Lions at Bears (-10, 39) - 1:00 PM EST
The Bears have not been a profitable play under Lovie Smith when laying double-digits, going 1-6 ATS. The Lions have covered the last two meetings at Soldier Field, winning SU in 2007, while falling by four last season as 13-point underdogs.
Detroit is 10-3 ATS the last 13 games as double-digit 'dogs, including an 8-1 ATS mark if they are on the road. The lone loss came in Week 1 at New Orleans, losing 45-27 as two-touchdown underdogs.
Bengals (-5½, 38½) at Browns - 1:00 PM EST
The Browns continue to be the biggest circus in the league (even more than the Raiders) with all the changes at quarterback. Head coach Eric Mangini has decided to go with former Pro Bowler Derek Anderson at quarterback this week, replacing Brady Quinn after only two games. However, there is a fantastic trend that points to Cleveland this week.
The Browns are coming off a blowout loss at Baltimore, as home 'dogs off a road loss of at least 21 points are 26-13 ATS the last five seasons. If the home 'dog lost on the road by more than 28 points, the record improves to 14-5 ATS.
The Bengals are sky-high after victories over the Packers and Steelers as underdogs. Cincinnati is just 1-5 ATS the last two seasons as road 'chalk.' Even though Anderson has fallen hard following his Pro Bowl season of 2007, the Browns' QB threw for 328 yards and five touchdowns against Cincinnati in a 51-45 victory two seasons ago.
Packers at Vikings (-3½, 45½) - 8:30 PM EST (Monday)
The Brett Favre bowl happens on Monday night in Minneapolis, as the Hall of Fame quarterback takes on his former team for the first time. The Vikings come in at 3-0, while the Packers sit at 2-1, but Green Bay has been money in this spot.
Under Mike McCarthy, the Pack is 8-1 ATS on the road against division opponents, including a perfect 3-0 ATS mark at Minnesota. In fact, each of the last six meetings in Minnesota has been decided by less than seven points.
The Vikings are only 2-7-1 ATS the last two seasons off a home win, including an 0-5 ATS mark last season.
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Week 4
Sunday, October 5
Raiders (1-2) @ Texans (1-2)-- Road team won Texans' first three games, as Houston lost both home tilts, 24-7/31-24, after losing goal-line fumble late in Jaguar loss- they struggle to stop the run, allowing 190-240-184 yards in first three games. Foes converted 50% on third down in first three games. Russell is horrible as Oakland's QB, completing 19 of 45 passes for just 141 yards the last two games. Raiders covered six of last nine as road underdog- they're 9-16 vs spread as non-division road dog since 2003. Texans won two of last three against the Raiders, with all three of those games played in Oakland.
Titans (0-3) @ Jaguars (1-2)-- Third road game in four weeks for a Tennessee squad that is 0-3 and desperate; they've outrushed foes 353-182, usually good indicator of success, but they turned ball over twice in kicking game last week, and have eight turnovers in three games (-3). Titans are also just 13-38 on third down, which contributes to them losing field position battle by 11-8-14 yards in three losses. Jags don't have much of home field edge- they're the only NFL team that won't sell out any of their home games. Road team is 6-4 in last ten series games. Titans 3-2 in last five visits here, winning last two, 13-10/24-14.
Ravens (3-0) @ Patriots (2-1)-- Red-hot Baltimore scored 38-31-34 points in first three wins, scoring 13 TDs on 32 drives; they've picked off six passes in last two games, have outrushed opponents 470-153, but they've played both Chiefs, Browns, two awful teams. Patriots ran ball for 168 yards vs Atlanta last week; they only have three takeaways (+1) and are really struggling in the red zone, with one TD, seven FGs on last RZ eight drives. They've converted 18 of 34 on 3rd down in their two wins, 5-15 in their loss. Pats are 14-18-1 in last 33 games as home favorite. Ravens covered six of last eight as underdogs.
Bengals (2-1) @ Browns (0-3)-- Can Bengals back up huge win vs Pitt with a win vs hapless Browns, who have one TD on 32 drives this year, outrushed 553-214 with a minus-7 turnover ratio? Cincy is 6-2 in last eight series games, winning three of last four here- they shut Browns out in last two wins here, lost 51-45 here in '07. Palmer makes huge difference for Bengals; they're 12-26 on 3rd down last two weeks, converted two 4th down plays on winning drive vs Steelers. Browns failed to cover last seven tries as single digit dog. Bengals are 1-5 as road favorite last two years; they're in a Steelers/Ravens sandwich.
Giants (3-0) @ Chiefs (0-3)-- Big Blue had glorified scrimmage in easy win at Tampa last week, have another one here, against KC club that is 7-36 on third down this year, losing first three games by 14-3-20 points. Upsets in games like this need turnovers by favorite- KC has only two takeaways so far in '09, Giants have no giveaways last two weeks. Chiefs are just 4-7 as home dog last two years; Giants are 12-4 in last 16 tries as road favorite, 9-3 in non-division games. Chiefs lost last seven at home- they're 4-10 in last 14 as non-divisional home dog. Third game in row on road for Big Blue, a historic NFL soft spot.
Lions (1-2) @ Bears (2-1)-- Detroit ended 19-game skid last week; they're 6-2 vs spread in last eight tries as road dog, but lost six of last eight series games, dropping three of last four here, losing by 32-27-4 points. Underdog covered four of last five series games here. Bears won last two games but they haven't run ball well this year (86-43-85 yards)- they haven't led at the half yet, but outscored foes 41-21 in second half. Since 2001, Lions are 7-19-2 vs spread in game after a win. Former Lion head coach Marinelli is an assistant with Bears. Detroit is 13-5 as a double digit dog, but 0-2 this year, losing by 18-14 points.
Bucs (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2)-- Washington lost to Lions last week after shaky 9-7 win vs Rams week before, so natives are restless, but Tampa is really bad, losing first three games by 13-13-24 points. Bucs were outrushed 244-85 last two weeks and now 2nd-year QB Johnson gets first NFL start in only second game action. Bucs are just 9-38 on 3rd down. Redskins are 5-11-1 as favorite at home since '06; they've been outscored 37-13 in first half, and have no TDs in first half of last two contests. Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Redskin games. Home side won four of last five series games, all decided by 7 or less points.
Seahawks (1-2) @ Colts (3-0)-- Indy off pair of primetime road wins, are just 2-6 in last eight games as home favorite, winning 14-12 in only '09 home game. Colts has big Monday night game at divisional rival Tennessee next week; they are 4-5 in last nine games as double digit fave, but 8-6 as non-divisional home fave. Seattle is live if Hasselbeck goes, off-limits if Wallace is QB- they're 8-14 as road dog since '04, 6-14-2 in last 22 games as non-divisional road dog. Bad news for Colts is pass rushing star Freeney is out. Manning is on top of game, averaging 12.3/10.8 ypp last two weeks; they're better without Harrison????
Jets (3-0) @ Saints (3-0)-- Two hot teams meet here; Jets have yet to give up more than 4.6 ypp this year, while Saints averaged 10.5/8.0/5.0 in first three games, while also running ball for 157-133-222 yards, so they're balanced more than previous years. NO won its first three games by 18-26-20 points- they've covered five of last six as home fave, but are just 6-10 as non-divisional home fave. Jets are 13-6 as road dog since '06; they are 9-14-1 vs the spread vs NFC teams since '03. Saints' WR Colston played college ball at Hofstra, where Jets used to train, but Jets didn't draft him. Over is 5-2 in last seven Saints' games.
Bills (1-2) @ Dolphins (0-3)-- Pennington is out for year, Henne gets his first NFL start vs Buffalo team that is 7-3 in last ten series games, but lost twice to Miami LY (25-16/16-3). Dolphins ran ball for 239-149 yards last two games, but haven't averaged 5.0 ypp yet- they have only one takeaway this year (-6). Saints ran ball down Buffalo's throat in 4th quarter last week (222 yards for game) would expect to see lot of Brown/Wildcat here. Buffalo is 6-3 as a road favorite since '04. Miami is 8-13 as home dog. Owens didn't catch pass in a game last week for first time in 12 years, expect Bills to get him involved early.
Rams (0-3) @ 49ers (2-1)-- Niners had brutal loss in Metrodome last week as Favre pulled game out with :02 left, but SF is much-improved team that is 6-2 in last eight series games, with only one win by more than seven points. Rams lost best WR Robinson last week, but got upgrade at QB when Bulger hurt his shoulder and Boller came in; they've been outscored 30-3 in second half, when defense gets worn down from being behind so much. Rams are 6-11 vs spread in last 17 games as road dog, 0-6 in last six division road games. Gore is out for 49ers, which hurts running game; they've only turned ball over twice in 2009.
Cowboys (2-1) @ Broncos (3-0)-- Road game on short work week for Dallas team missing two best RBs; despite that, Cowboys ran for 251-212 yards in last two games. Denver is off quickly, giving up 5.5 ppg (one TD/31 drives); after getting lucky in opener at Cincinnati, they crushed woeful teams the last two weeks, running ball for 401 yards. Cowboys are 10-7-1 as home favorite since '06, covering six of last seven as favorite of three points or less. Broncos are 3-1 as home dog this decade, 4-6 as dog of three or less points. Defending Romo this week is huge step up, after seeing Quinn/Russell in last two games.
Chargers (2-1) @ Steelers (1-2)-- Pitt not running ball as well this season (84.3 ypg this year); they lost last two games by FG each, failing to stop Bengals on pair of 4th down plays on final drive last week. Chargers are throwing it well with LY out (6.2/9.0/8.2 ypp) but they've also given up 148-130-149 yards on ground, so interesting to see if Pitt can keep ball away from Rivers. Steelers are 11-7 as home fave since '06, 9-6 in non-division games- they beat Bolts twice LY, 11-10/35-24. Chargers are 15-4-1 vs spread in last 20 games as a road dog, but lost 12 of last 14 to Steelers, with both wins coming in playoff games.
Monday, October 6
Packers (2-1) @ Vikings (3-0)-- Favre plays first game against team that made him famous; rivals split last eight series games, with two LY decided by total of six points. Vikings are 8-10 in last 18 games as home favorite, pulling out a dramatic win on last play last week, overcoming getting FG blocked for a TD. Pack is already +8 in turnovers, picking off seven passes- they allowed 151-149 yards on ground last two games, good news for Peterson, who was held under 100 last week. Vikes scored 34-27-27 points in first three games, taking all three games, despite trailing all three at halftime. Rodgers has been sacked 12 times in three games, not good.