What Bettors Need to Know: Friday NFL Preseason
By Nick Parsons.
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1, 37.5)
DRESS REHEARSAL
The Falcons were subpar in their 28-10 loss to the Patriots last time out, but backers will be happy to hear Atlanta’s starters are expected to play into the second half on Friday.
Head coach Mike Smith stated, “It’s the biggest tune-up in the preseason in terms of the number of snaps that our guys are going to play and we want to see them play well.”
There should be consistency at RB in the third and fourth quarters as well with Ryan Wolfe, Antone Smith, and Dmitri Nance vying for rosters spots. CBs Dunta Robinson and Brian Williams will be game-time decisions.
PRESEASON CHAMPS
The Dolphins earned their ninth straight preseason victory with a 27-26 win over Jacksonville. They were particularly impressive in the second quarter, when they scored 21 points. Chad Henne was responsible for 14 of those points going 11-for-14 for 151 yards and two TDs.
Like Atlanta, Miami is expected to give their starters a couple more snaps. Protection under center should be solid throughout with Jake Grove getting an unexpected challenge for his starting position from Joe Berger.
LINE MOVEMENT AND WEATHER
Very little movement on the spread with the game listed as a pick ’em at some books.
Thundershowers are expected for Friday’s game
Washington Redskins at New York Jets (-4.5, 34)
WHERE'D FAST WILLIE GO?
The Redskins put in two completely different performances in their preseason games exploding offensively for 42 points against the Bills and then just managing a field goal against the Ravens.
Donovan McNabb is ruled out for the game with a sprained ankle, along with FB Mike Sellers and WR Malcolm Kelly. More things change on offense as well with Willie Parker listed as the starting tailback for the game.
Parker sits behind Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Ryan Torain on the depth chart, so Friday night is pretty much a do or die for the former Steeler.
JETS, JETS, ZZZZZ
Most people are expecting a breakout season for Gang Green this year, but that is by no means reflected in their preseason performance. They got owned against the Giants in the battle of the new stadium and squeezed past Carolina, 9-3.
Coach Rex Ryan stated that he will be treating this game as a dress rehearsal with the first team not expected to play much next week against the Eagles.
“This will be the last preseason game with the starters I mean, we’ll get a series against Philly, probably, maybe a little longer than that but not much,” Ryan told reporters. “This will be a big test for us.”
LINE MOVEMENT AND WEATHER
The line opened up at -3.5 in favor of the Jets and it has seen movement up to -5 at some books. This probably is based off McNabb’s absence.
Clear skies and a high of 77 are expected by kickoff.
San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-3. 42.5)
STRAIGHT OUT OF CROMPTON
It’s unclear how long Phillip Rivers will be in for the Chargers, some sources say just for a quarter. So backers will have to rely on Johnathan Crompton and Billy Volek to lead the charge (pun intended)? Both have been mediocre in preseason. Volek has a 46.2 percent completion rate, while Crompton has thrown for two interceptions in just 17 pass attempts.
WHO DOES NO. 2 WORK FOR?
The Saints looked sharp against the Texans, with 28 of their 38 points coming in the first half. Backup QB Chase Daniel was solid in that game passing for 182 yards and three TDs.
But Saints coach Sean Payton indicated that Tulane alum Patrick Ramsey could see the majority of snaps.
“This week when Drew (Brees) finishes, we’ll give the majority – if not all – of the reps to Patrick (Ramsey).”
Payton said yes when asked if there was a genuine competition for the No. 2 QB spot.
LINE MOVEMENT AND WEATHER
The spread sits between -3 and -3.5 in favor of the Saints. Both Saints preseason games have gone over prompting of move of 40.5 to 42.5 on the total.
Rain is expected on Friday which should put a hamper on tailgaters’ plans and those stuck outside without tickets.
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (+1, 37)
PROMOTION DAY
Philly coach Andy Reid laid out his rotation for the game, stating that the starters would play three quarters and the backups with take up the fourth. Expect extra motivation on defense with the rookies. FS Nate Allen and DE Brandon Graham were recently promoted to the first team.
Not much can be said about Philadelphia’s game against Cincinatti except for the fact that David Akers’s job is safe for the regular season. The 35-year-old kicker scored all of the points in a 22-9 loss, but backers can put a bit more confidence in the Eagles with this being “the” key tune-up game.
RB Mike Bell, who hasn’t played in any preseason games, is expected to suit up on Friday.
BATTLE ROYAL
Most of the attention will be on the pre-game ceremonies with Friday’s contest marking the opening of the New Arrowhead stadium, but this is a critical game for players on the bubble.
Todd Haley suggested that the starters would play three quarters, but he did seem to hint that more time would be given to those fighting for positions.
“There are some guys that I maybe feel a little more secure about and some others for one reason or another, whether it’s just getting snaps under their belt, experience or for evaluation purposes that may go longer,” the Kansas City coach told reporters.
One defense the key battle is for the two MLB spots in Rommeo Crennel’s 3-4 defense, which has Corey Mays, Demorrio Wiliams, Derrick Johnson, and Jovan Belcher all competing for a spot. A new tug of war also emerged at DE between Tyson Jackson and Wallace Gilberry.
On offense, there is no doubt that Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles will split carries in the regular season, but they will still both be aggressively fighting for that No. 1 spot on Friday.
LINE MOVEMENT AND WEATHER
Both the total and the spread have seen little movement throughout the week, but popular opinion lies with the Eagles. The Chiefs are on a nine-game preseason ATS losing streak. The Eagles have hit the over eight times in their last nine preseason games.
Clear skies and a high of 86 are expected.
Stage set for a shootout between Chargers and Saints
By: StatFox
The third preseason game is traditionally when the starters see the majority of the action. That’s expected to be the case when the Saints host the Chargers on Friday night in an intriguing matchup that will be nationally televised on CBS. After posting a 25-10 win over the Bears, the Chargers dropped a 16-14 decision to the Cowboys in their second preseason outing. Philip Rivers was 11-for-15 for 125 yards and an INT, while adding a rushing TD. Billy Volek and Jonathan Crompton combined to go 8-for-18 for 102 yards and a pick in relief of Rivers.
The Saints bounced back from their opening loss to the Patriots by routing the Texans 38-20. Drew Brees led a pair of TD drives, capping off the second one with a 1-yard TD of his own. Chase Daniel performed well in relief, completing 15-of-21 passes for 182 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. The defending Super Bowl champs also piled up 198 yards on the ground.
Give the nod to the Saints at home, but expect both offenses to light up the scoreboard. Consider this from the FoxSheets. SAN DIEGO is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after allowing 200 or less total yards in its previous game since 1993. The average score was SAN DIEGO 26.3, OPPONENT 22.3 - (Rating = 3*).
Redskins to start Grossman for McNabb against Jets
By: StatFox
After an impressive 42-17 victory over the Bills in their opener, the Redskins were humbled by their neighbors from Baltimore, 23-3, last week. Donovan McNabb completed just 11-of-26 throws against the Ravens and was intercepted once. The Skins managed just 25 yards on the ground and allowed Baltimore to rush for 143 yards.
McNabb will sit out the game against the Jets because of an ankle injury, meaning backup quarterback Rex Grossman will start and likely play into the third quarter. You've got to believe that Jets head coach Rex Ryan will be licking his chops over the prospect of sending blitz packages at Grossman with Gang Green's first-team defensive unit.
The Jets failed to find the end zone in a 9-3 win over the Panthers, gaining just 112 yards of total offense. Mark Sanchez completed 5-of-10 passes for a measly 12 yards. Fortunately for the Jets, they only allowed 175 yards and forced 5 turnovers.
The Redskins should have a tough time scoring this week facing the vaunted Jets defense. FoxSheets suggest further trouble for the Redskins. WASHINGTON is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1993. The average score was WASHINGTON 12.7, OPPONENT 27.9 - (Rating = 3*).
Preseason betting trend favors Dolphins over Falcons
By: StatFox
The Falcons’ first-team offense has yet to find the end zone through two preseason games, settling for a pair of FGs, one in each game. Third-year QB Matt Ryan has completed 11-of-19 passes for 110 yards without throwing a pick. Michael Turner has performed well in his limited carries, gaining 61 yards on 12 rushes (5.1 avg).
Chad Henne rebounded from a poor performance in the Dolphins’ opener (5-11, 19 yds), going 11-for-14 for 151 yards and 2 TD in Miami’s 27-26 win over the Jaguars. Henne played well into the second quarter, connecting with TE Anthony Fasano on TD passes of 55 and 11 yards. Veteran backup Chad Pennington completed 3-of-4 passes in limited action, including a 10-yard TD pass to Ronnie Brown.
Miami gets the home-field edge playing outdoors on grass against a climate-controlled dome team. FoxSheets also show: Play On - Underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins, in the last two weeks of the preseason. (75-39 since 1993.) (65.8%, +32.1 units. Rating = 2*).