NFL News and Notes Friday, December 25,2009

SAN DIEGO (11 - 3) at TENNESSEE (7 - 7)

Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

SAN DIEGO vs. TENNESSEE
San Diego is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego

SAN DIEGO at TENNESSEE
SAN DIEGO: 13-3 ATS vs. AFC South
TENNESSEE: 8-1 Under after a win by 6 or less points

Chargers and Titans Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone

San Diego and Tennessee try bring in some holiday cheer with a Christmas Night game on NFL Network. The Chargers have wrapped up a first round playoff bye thanks to their win over Cincinnati and will play as the AFCs #2 seed when the postseason kicks off in two weeks. Tennessee is still hoping to be part of that party and at 7-7, still has a chance in the crowded wildcard chase. The Titans will wrap up a three-game homestand in this contest before heading to Seattle for the season finale.

Philip Rivers fits into the same category of quarterback as Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, not in terms of Super Bowl titles or Most Valuable Player awards but shouldering nearly the entire offensive load.

The Chargers are 12-0 SU & 10-3 ATS in December under Norv Turner, and have won the L5 games between these teams, both SU & ATS. San Diego (11-3, 7-7 ATS) is also on a nice run of 13-3 ATS vs. AFC South foes.

San Diegos running game has been almost non-existent, save for the goal line, ranking 30th at just 86.2 yards per game. Its better than only Indianapolis and Chicago, while Rivers is on pace to set a career-high in attempts. He completed 24 of 38 throws in last weeks 27-24 non-cover win over Cincinnati, San Diegos ninth consecutive victory, and is only 34 attempts shy of his personal high in the category with two games to play. The Chargers are 16-5 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.

On the surface, Tennessee (6-7-1 ATS) would appear to have a ball-control offense, but the big-play ability of Chris Johnson, the NFLs rushing leader, gives the Titans the same type of score-from-anywhere element that the Chargers have with Rivers. His 20 runs of more than 40 yards are nearly double that of the next best back, Minnesotas Adrian Peterson, and he also has three 40-plus-yard receptions under his belt. Teams have had success pounding their way into the San Diego defense, averaging a healthy 116.9 yards per game, but few have found excessive free space. The Chargers have allowed just seven runs of 20 or more yards. Tennessee is just 1-8 ATS against teams with winning records.

Tennessee cornerback Cortland Finnegan missed all three October games, and his absence certainly showed. After losing three September games by a combined 13 points, the Titans lost their next three, sans Finnegan, by a combined 101. He returned to the lineup in November, has picked off three passes since and the defense has allowed more than 17 points in just three of the last eight games. The Titans have forced nine turnovers in last two games and are 7-0 ATS after consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better over the last two seasons.

Vince Young showed some flashes of his running ability in the Week 14 victory over St. Louis, but left after the 44-yard run because of a hamstring injury. He returned for last Sundays 27-24 overtime victory against Miami and played a more conventional game, rushing just twice for 24 yards. Young and the Titans are 5-2 SU & 4-2-1 ATS at home this season and 10-2-1 ATS in last 13 as hosts overall.

Betus.com has Tennessee as three-point favorites, with total of 47. The Titans are 17-4 ATS as a home favorite of three points or less, but are much less effective against teams with a strong passing game, posting 6-16 ATS mark if opponent throws for 260 yards or more a game. (San Diego averages 268.9 YPG) The total could also provide an answer, with the Bolts 18-6 ATS in road games when the total is greater than or equal to 45.5.

With both teams having played Over in the majority of their games, it would seem that is the best place to look until you dig a little deeper. San Diego is 6-2 UNDER after allowing 250 or more yards passing like they did against Bengals and is 3-1-1 UNDER in last five road games. Tennessee doesnt score a lot of points unless they create turnovers. Take away the Buffalo game; the Titans average 17.8 points per game when the opposition commits two or less turnovers. They are 8-1 UNDER after a win by six or less points over the last three seasons.

Xmas-Present
By SportsPic

The Tennessee Titans (7-7, 6-8 ATS) looking to improve their far-fetched playoff hopes can't count on San Diego (11-3, 7-7 ATS) tanking this Christmas Day matchup. The RED-HOT Bolts winners of nine consecutive (6-3 ATS) and seventeen straight December games (11-6 ATS) have clinched the AFC West but can earn themselves a first-round bye by beating Tennessee. Little doubt the Titans have been cooking since week-eight (7-1, 5-3 ATS) however devastating losses to the defense (LB's Keith Bulluck, David Thornton) is a huge blow heading into this must-win situation. Titans laying -3 points to a team on a different level is a gift under the tree, take the points. Bolts have been outstanding road underdogs going 13-5-2 against-the-number the past twenty situations, are 13-3 ATS facing AFC South. On the other side of the ledger, Titans are 1-8 ATS facing a team with a winning record, 1-6 ATS last seven hosting a team from the AFC West and 0-6 ATS overall since '97 clashing with Bolts.

San Diego (11-3, 7-7 ATS) at Tennessee (7-7, 6-8 ATS)

Two of the NFL’s hottest teams – despite their disparate SU records – get together when the red-hot Chargers take on the surging Titans in a Christmas night clash at LP Field.

San Diego squeaked past Cincinnati 27-24 Sunday on a 52-yard Nate Kaeding field goal in the waning seconds, notching its ninth consecutive SU win (6-3 ATS), but falling short of covering as a 6½-point home chalk. QB Philip Rivers (3,891 passing yards, 25 TDs, 9 INTs) continues to lead the league’s fifth-best passing attack (268.9 ypg), and the Chargers are fourth in scoring (27.8 ppg), having put up at least 27 points six times during their current win streak.

Tennessee, which started the year 0-6 (1-5 ATS), has since bounced back with a 7-1 run (5-3 ATS) to actually put itself on the edge of the muddled AFC playoff picture. Last week, the Titans topped Miami 27-24 in overtime, getting another solid day from RB Chris Johnson (104 rushing yards, 55 receiving yards). Johnson has a league-leading 1,730 rushing yards (5.7 ypc, 11 TDs), and he’s logged 2,176 all-purpose yards with 13 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns. Behind Johnson, the Titans’ running game is second in the NFL at 162.6 ypg.

In addition to Johnson’s heroics, once-fragile QB Vince Young has settled down nicely. Since replacing Kerry Collins as starter following the six-game season-opening slide, Young has 10 TD passes and just four INTs. The Titans have scored 27 points or more five times since he entered the lineup, after scoring 17 or less in five of the first six games.

San Diego is on a 5-0 SU and ATS tear in this rivalry, most recently winning 17-6 as a hefty 10½-point home favorite in the wild-card playoff round two years ago. Four weeks prior to that, in regular-season play, the Chargers rallied for a 23-17 overtime road victory as a 1½-point road underdog. During its five-game SU and ATS winning streak in this series, San Diego has cashed three times at home and twice at Tennessee.

The Chargers have now won 17 consecutive games in December (11-6 ATS), having not lost in the final month of the year since the 2005 season finale. Also, despite failing to get the cash against Cincinnati on Sunday, the Bolts remain on a handful of additional ATS upswings, including 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 on the highway, 20-6-3 as an underdog and 9-3 in December.

The Titans are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 starts as a home chalk of up to three points, but they are otherwise in pointspread ruts of 1-8 against winning teams, 3-7 as a favorite, 2-6 after a non-cover and 3-7 within the AFC.

The under is 3-1-1 in San Diego’s last five roadies, but the Chargers are on “over” runs of 6-1-1 in December, 8-3-1 against AFC foes and 11-5 coming off a SU win. The over for Tennessee is on streaks of 19-9-1 in December and 9-4 with the Titans a home chalk, but the under is on rolls for Tennessee of 14-6-1 against winning teams and 21-10-1 following a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO

Chargers (11-3) @ Titans (7-7)

Long road trip on short week for San Diego team that is pretty much locked in as #2 seed in AFC after beating Bengals last week. Chargers won last nine games, last three by 7-3-3 points; Bolts passed for 11.4/14.3/8.1/7.4 yards per pass attempt in last four games. Tennessee is 7-1 in last eight games after 0-6 start, with five of seven wins at home; they're 3-4 vs spread as underdog. Chargers are 2-2 as road favorite. AFC West faves are 3-5 vs spread in non-division games, 0-2 at home. AFC South underdogs are 5-5 vs spread. Over is 8-5 in last 13 Titan games, 3-1 last four Bolt games.

What Bettors Need To Know: Chargers at Titans
By BILL CLOUTIER

The Chargers are undoubtedly the hottest team in the NFL. Winners of nine straight, SD has outscored the opposition 265-147 over that stretch. SD has locked up the division title and needs one more win or a Patriot loss to lock up the No. 2 seed in the AFC which comes with an all-important first-round bye.

Do you remember when the Titans lost at New England 59-0? Well, since then, they’ve won seven of their last eight games and are actually in the playoff picture at 7-7. Tennessee needs to win its last two games and get a lot of help to earn a playoff berth, but the fact that it even has a pulse is impressive.

The Line

Motivation has been the biggest factor for this number. SD opened as the logical 1-point favorite but Titan backers jumped on it and now Tennessee is the 3-point favorite. Even Las Vegas oddsmakers felt that the Chargers should be the favorites but because SD is in good shape to get the No. 2 seed even if it loses, the Titans are the choice. The total has risen a point to 47.

Injury report

The Titans lost top tackler Keith Bulluck (ACL) and linebacker David Thornton (shoulder). Bulluck, who’s career may be over after the injury, calls the defensive assignments and that chore will go to Stephen Tulloch. Veteran Jamie Winborne was signed to replace Bulluck.

San Diego center Scott Mruczkowski, who did a fantastic job filling in for starter Nick Hardwick, was placed on IR. Hardwick missed the last 13 games because of torn ligaments in his left ankle, but says he’s ready to return Friday against Tennessee.

Defensive backs Eric Weddle and Quentin Jammer should both be ready to play as will defensive end Jacques Cesaire. Linebackers Shaun Phillips and Kevin Burnett are both questionable.

They’re not Secret Santas

SD’s Shawne Merriman still insists that he suffered a serious knee injury as a result of cheap shot in a game against Tennessee two years ago. Several players were hurt in that game and four players were fined for the physical play.

San Diego also eliminated Tennessee from the playoffs that year.

“They’re a physical team,” SD quarterback Phillip Rivers said. “They thought they could punk us and we obviously aren’t going to get punked. That’s Jeff Fisher’s style of play.

“He wants tough guys, he wants guys that go out there and get physical and get nasty and get after it and try to intimidate the opponent. That’s just his style of play. You’ve got to love a guy for that.”

Fisher, who’s 0-5 against the Chargers as the Titans head coach, responded to the criticism.

“We’ve had some great battles, great matchups, and didn’t wind up on the winning side of any of them,” said Fisher. “ … But I know there are some other teams I’ve heard of that don’t particularly care for the Chargers. Maybe it’s them.”

Young at heart

Let’s face it, the Titans’ season was virtually over after losing their first six games of the season, most of them in embarrassing fashion.

With nothing to lose, Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher gave Vince Young a shot at starting quarterback and the rest is history. Young is 7-1 as a starter and he’s also passed for 10 TDs and rushed for 243 yards.

Young’s presence has kept defenses keying on running back Chris Johnson, who is threatening to set the NFL single-season rushing mark. Last week the Dolphins tried to take CJ out of the picture so Young capitalized, connecting on two long TD passes to WR Justin Gage.

MVP race

While all the talk has centered on Peyton Manning and Drew Brees for MVP for most of the season, Phillip Rivers has jumped into the picture.

Rivers has thrown for 3,891 yards with 25 TDs and only 9 interceptions. He’s also made a star of wide receiver Vincent Jackson (1,097 yards, 9 TDs). The Chargers no longer rely on LaDainian Tomlinson, instead it’s been Rivers-to-Jackson or Rivers-to-Gates continuously.

Chris Johnson also has to be in the MVP picture. He’s gone over 100 yards in nine straight games.

You’re talking about playoffs?

San Diego’s stars hope to win this one and get some extra rest for the playoffs.

Tennessee’s playoff plight, however, is eerily similar to Vince Young’s first year in the NFL. In 2006 the Titans started 0-5 and won eight of the next 10. They went into the final game of the season needing to win and also needed three other teams to lose.

That seemed like a long shot but what happened made Young shake his head in disbelief afterward. All three of the other teams lost their games but Tennessee was routed by New England ending its hopes.

“I’ll take it as a learning thing for myself. I know what I have to do all this week to prepare, to get myself ready, to lead this team out and come back to get a win on Christmas,” Young said.

Said Chris Johnson: “Some things are falling our way, but at the end of the day, you can only control what you can control. A couple of years before we got here, it was the same situation and they went out and lost. If they had won, they would have gone to the playoffs. So, this year, we’re just going in and taking care of what we have to take care of.”

Weather

The forecast calls for cloudy skies with chilly temperatures in the upper 30s.

Trend-setting

The Chargers have won 17 straight games in December and are 11-6 ATS in those contests.

San Diego has gone over the total in eight of the last 11 games against AFC competition.

Tennessee is only 1-8 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

Tips and Trends

San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans

Chargers: San Diego has won an NFL record 17 consecutive games in December. They have also clinched their 4th consecutive Division title, yet they have plenty to play for today. With a win today, they clinch the #2 seed in the AFC and a 1st Round Bye. Lost in their 9 game winning streak is the fact that this Chargers teams is 6-1 SU on the road this year. San Diego is 2-1 both SU and ATS this season as an underdog. QB Phillip Rivers had directed an offense that has transformed into a passing attack this season. Rivers has thrown for nearly 3,900 YDS and has the 3rd highest QB Rating in the NFL at 102.8. Rivers has 25 TDs against only 9 INTs on the season. San Diego averages 27.8 PPG, which is the 5th most in the NFL. No team has scored more than 24 PTS against the Chargers during their current 9 game winning streak. They have allowed 5 straight opponents to rush for more than 100 YDS against them however.

Chargers are 20-6-3 ATS last 29 games as an underdog.
Over is 11-5 last 16 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - LB Shawne Merriman (foot) is questionable.
C Nick Hardwick (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27

Titans (-3, O/U 47): Tennessee still has faint playoff hopes, so they will be laying it all on the line tonight. They have battled back to 7-7 SU on the year, quite an achievement considering they were 0-6 SU to start the season. The Titans are 5-2 SU at home this season, riding a current 5 game home winning streak. The Titans are led by RB Chris Johnson, who leads the NFL in rushing with 1,730 YDS. Johnson has had 9 consecutive games with at least 100 YDS rushing. QB Vince Young has been stellar as well since taking over the QB job from Kerry Collins. Young has led his team to a 7-1 SU record and has a QB Rating of 92.5 this season. Young has 10 TD passes to only 4 INTs. Young is also coming off a career high 3 TD passes in his last game. Defensively, the Titans have held 4 of their past 6 opponents to 17 PTS or fewer. The Titans are injury riddled on the defensive side of the ball.

Titans are 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games as a favorite up to a field goal.

Key Injuriesw - WR Nate Washington (ankle) is questionable.
LB Keith Bullock (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (OVER - Total of the Day)