What Bettors Need To Know: Packers at Vikings
By VICTOR RYAN
Revenge in the Air
It’s been two years in the making, but it’s finally here. Brett Favre is facing the Green Bay Packers.
Emotions will be running high in the latest renewal of this longstanding division rivalry. For his part, Favre has tried to downplay the storyline this week by giving it the ‘it’s just another game’ treatment.
“It’s a Monday night game, the only game playing and there’s more excitement because of that,” Favre said. “But you can’t treat it any differently. Trying to keep your emotions in check any time is part of it. But I think that’s a key part to any player’s success, too, is you want to be excited, emotional. If it doesn’t mean a whole lot, you shouldn’t be playing."
Aside from the emotional side of the game, Favre playing against his former mates also has more tangible aspects. The Vikings’ coaching staff has consulted with Favre extensively this week in hopes of gaining insight into how to stop quarterback Aaron Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy’s West Coast offense.
“There’s still some guys on the club he’s familiar with on their offense, and some of the things schematically that they’re doing, there’s some familiarity,” defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier told local media. “We’re picking his brain as much as we can to try to get some insight.
Favre was placed on the injury report for the first time this year because of a sore foot. While it limited his practice time, it’s not expected to a concern come game time.
Grant-ing a Wish
Yes, the Packers rushing attack ranks in the bottom half of the league through three weeks and it faces one of the league’s top rush defenses behind a patchwork offensive line. But things may not be as bad as they seem.
Packers’ running back Ryan Grant has excelled against the Vikings in three games since he became the Packers’ starting running back late in the 2007 season. The veteran out of Notre Dame has combined to rush for 286 yards on 53 carries against the Vikings, an average carry of 5.4 yards, and has rushed for two touchdowns.
On the run
The Packers run defense has allowed consecutive 100-yard rushers to drop to 23rd in the league in run defense and now must tackle Adrian Peterson, the league’s top rusher with 357 yards. Peterson has been especially productive against the Packers in the team’s four previous matchups. He has rushed for at least 100 yards in three out of those four games, including a 192-yard performance in the teams’ final meeting last season.
Injuries
It appears the Packers will be without the services of starting left tackle Chad Clifton for the second straight week because of an ankle injury. If he’s unable to go, Daryn Colledge will again get the call and draw the responsibility of blocking standout defensive end Jared Allen. Defensive linemen Johnny Jolly (abdomen) and B.J. Raji (ankle) were also added to the injury report as limited participants in practice Friday.
The Vikings come into this one in pretty good shape health-wise. The major concern is All-Pro left guard Steve Hutchinson, who is listed as questionable with a back injury. He practiced on a limited basis Saturday after missing the first two practices of the week. Punt returner Darius Reynaud is doubtful with a hamstring injury. Bernard Berrian or Jaymar Johnson will take over return duties if Reynaud is unable to go.
Head-to-Head
These teams split their two meetings last year. Green Bay beat the Vikings 24-19 as 1-point home favorites in September and Minnesota came back to avenge the defeat with a 28-27 win as 2.5-point home faves.
Line Movement
The Vikings opened as a 3.5-point favorite and have been moved up to -4 at most betting shops. The over/under opened at 47 and has been bet down to 45.5 at most outlets.
Trends
Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog. Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games. Vikings are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Vikings are 1-4 in their last five games as a home favorite. Over is 7-1-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings in Minnesota.
Green Bay at Minnesota
By Brian Edwards
I understand what life-long Packer fans will be going through Monday when their team goes to the Metrodome to face the Vikings. The Cheeseheads will be watching the franchise icon play in a purple uniform against the team he brought back to respectability.
Between Vince Lombardi and Brett Favre’s stays in Green Bay, there wasn’t much for Packer fans to be happy about. Favre changed that. He brought magic to Lambeau Field, won three NFL MVP Awards and took the Pack to a pair of Super Bowls. They beat New England to win the Lombardi Trophy in January of 1997. It was an incredible 16-year run for Favre and the Packers.
As a Florida alum, I watched Steve Spurrier guide the Gators to unprecedented heights. After a glorious, 12-year tenure, Spurrier tried his luck in the NFL and failed. Following a one-year hiatus, he wanted back in college coaching and ended up at South Carolina, one of Florida’s SEC East adversaries.
Truth be told, I couldn’t help but root for Spurrier and the Gamecocks in their first meeting against Florida. It wasn’t something I planned; it’s just how my rooting interest went in that odd first encounter. South Carolina took down UF by a 30-22 count in Columbia. That wasn’t the best Florida team and that’s probably why my heart went against my own team for the only time in my existence.
I have no idea if Packer fans will go a similar route for this week’s edition of Monday Night Football. Some will probably be disgusted by Favre, while others won’t be able to help rooting for him. And then there will be those whose emotions meet somewhere in the middle.
Whatever the case, the emotions will be running sky-high when these long-time NFC North rivals collide in a battle for first place in the division. ESPN will have television coverage at 8:35 p.m. Eastern.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Minnesota (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 46 ½. As of Sunday night, most books were listing the Vikings as four-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 45 ½. The Packers are plus-170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170).
Favre didn’t wait long to produce his first magical comeback as a Viking. It came in Week 3 in his home debut when he led them to an improbable last-second win over San Francisco. With no timeouts left trailing 24-20, Favre orchestrated a brilliant game-winning drive that was capped by a remarkable 32-yard touchdown catch by Greg Lewis with two seconds remaining.
Brad Childress’s team pulled out the outright win, but the 49ers took the money as seven-point road underdogs. Favre threw for a season-high 301 yards and two TDs, while RB Adrian Peterson rushed 19 times for 85 yards.
Green Bay (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) bounced back from a home loss to the Bengals by going into St. Louis and collecting a 36-17 victory as a 6 ½-point road favorite. The 53 combined points sailed ‘over’ the 42 ½-point total.
Aaron Rodgers threw for 269 yards and a pair of TD passes without an interception. Favre’s replacement in Green Bay had 38 rushing yards, including a four-yard touchdown scamper. Ryan Grant had 99 rushing yards against the Rams.
Just like last season when he had a 28/13 touchdown-interception ratio, Rodgers has been steady again in 2009. He has 714 passing yards through three games and hasn’t been picked off in 90 attempts. Rodgers has four TD passes.
Rodgers has a pair of big-time wideouts in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. Driver had four receptions for 95 yards and one TD at St. Louis, bringing his season tally to 14 grabs for 233 yards and two TDs. Jennings has eight catches for 209 yards to date.
Favre’s WRs aren’t as consistent or as established as the ones Rodgers is working with, but Favre has the best player on the field on his squad. That would be the aforementioned Peterson, who has an NFL-best 357 rushing yards and four touchdowns this year. The Oklahoma product is averaging 6.1 yards per carry.
The Vikings also have rookie playmaker Percy Harvin, who helped the Gators to a pair of national titles in his three seasons in Gainesville. Harvin has a touchdown in all three games this year, finding the end zone last week on a 101-yard kick return. He also had four receptions for 51 yards against the 49ers, including a pair of grabs on the game-winning drive.
Green Bay has covered the spread in four straight head-to-head meetings against Minnesota. With that said, the Vikings did win outright in last year’s encounter at the Metrodome, capturing a 28-27 victory. The Pack took the cash, though, closing as 2 ½-point road puppies.
Favre will make his return to Lambeau for the second meeting between these clubs on Nov. 1.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--The ‘under’ is 5-3-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between the Vikes and the Pack.
The ‘over’ is 2-1 for the Packers this year, 1-0 in their lone road outing. Likewise, the ‘over’ is 2-1 overall for Minnesota, 1-0 in its only home assignment.
Chicago improved to 3-1 on Sunday with a 48-24 win over Detroit as a 10-point home favorite. The 72 combined points easily jumped ‘over’ the 39-point tally. Jay Cutler had a pair of TD passes without being intercepted, while RB Matt Forte rushed for 121 yards and one TD on just 12 carries.
Jacksonville has now won back-to-back games following its 37-17 bludgeoning of winless Tennessee as a three-point home underdog. David Garrard was in 2007 form, throwing for 323 yards and three touchdowns without an interception.
vegasinsider.com
Green Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
Brett Favre makes his much-anticipated first-ever start against his former team when the Packers visit the Metrodome for a matchup against the Vikings.
After 15 seasons with Green Bay, Favre “retired” following the 2007 playoffs only to play the 2008 season with the Jets and “retire” again before signing with Minnesota in August. Now he faces the Packers, the team with whom he earned three consecutive league MVP awards and led to a Super Bowl title in the mid-1990s.
Green Bay has won five of the last six matchups in this rivalry, but Minnesota scored a 28-27 victory last November at home, falling short as a 2½-point favorite. The Packers have gotten the cash in four straight series clashes and five of six in Minnesota. Also, the underdog is 16-5 ATS over the past 10-plus seasons, and the road team has covered 11 of the last 14 meetings.
Favre’s successor, Aaron Rodgers has the Packers at 2-1 after last week’s 36-17 road win in St. Louis, cashing as a 6½-point road favorite. Rodgers passed for 269 yards and two TDs against the Rams while RB Ryan Grant contributed 99 rushing yards. Rodgers has thrown for 714 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions this season.
Favre has the Vikings shooting for their first 4-0 start since 2003 after his amazing 32-yard, game-winning touchdown pass with two seconds left to beat the Niners 27-24 last Sunday in his home opener. However, after cashing in the first two games on the road, Minnesota came up short as a seven-point favorite versus San Frnacisco. Favre has thrown for 566 yards with five TDs and one INT as a Viking.
Green Bay is on several positive ATS runs, including 15-5-1 on the road, 3-1-1 in October, 5-1 as an underdog, 7-1 against NFC North foes and 4-1 against teams with winning records.
Minnesota comes into this as a betting risk, currently on ATS slides of 0-4 at home, 0-4 in Week 4 games, 1-4 against the NFC, 1-4 in October, 2-6 against division rivals and 3-11 after a SU win.
Under the Monday night spotlight, Green Bay is 26-27-1 SU (29-24-1 ATS), while the Vikings are 24-24 SU (23-24-1 ATS) all time.
The Packers are on a plethora of “over” runs, including 20-7-1 overall, 10-3-1 on the road, 20-6-1 against NFC squads, 7-3 against division rivals and 5-2-1 as a road ‘dog. Conversely, the Vikings are on “under” streaks of 4-1 against the NFC, 8-3 on Monday and 28-13-1 after a SU win. In this rivalry, the “over” has been the play in 12 of 18 meetings overall and seven of nine in Minnesota.
Finally, the four of the first five Monday Night Football games this season have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
Old-Friends-Meet
By SportsPic
Brett Favre and the undefeated Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers in this Monday Night'r. Favre facing his old team for the first time is off a 24-of-46 performance with two touchdowns, one interception and 301 yards in a dramatic 27-24 home win over the 49ers. Though Favre has provided interesting highlight's the reality is that Minnesota is a run-first team and their chances at success is going to come on the ground with Peterson looking to shred a Packers defense torched for 151 rushing yards in week-two and 149 yards most recently vs Rams. Minnesota has had little success vs Packers of late going 1-5 both SU & ATS last six meeting and 2-4 (1-5 ATS) last six as host in the series however if the ground game breaks through (=>125) Vikings will be in a great spot. They're 37-9 (27-18-1 ATS) at home rushing 125 or more yards including 12-3 (10-5 ATS) as favorites of -.5 to -4.5. Keep in mind, Peterson was a nightmare for Packers defense last year recording 295 yards, two touchdowns in two encounters.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at The Metrodome.
The Packers defeated St. Louis 36-17 as a 6.5-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (43).
Aaron Rodgers passed for 269 yards with two touchdown passes and a TD run for Green Bay and Donald Driver caught four passes for 95 yards with a touchdown.
The Vikings defeated San Francisco 27-24 as a 7-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (39.5).
Brett Favre passed for 301 yards with two touchdowns and an interception for Minnesota, while Adrian Peterson rushed for 85 yards on 19 carries.
Current streak:
Minnesota has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Green Bay: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS
Minnesota: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS
Green Bay most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 7-3
Minnesota most recently:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the division are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Next up:
Green Bay home to Detroit, Sunday, October 18
Minnesota at St. Louis, Sunday, October 11
More than a game in Minnesota on Monday
BY Doug Upstone
In case you havent heard, President Obama has made this Monday national Brett Favre Day, as a way to celebrate the future Hall of Famer and everyone can quit their jobs, only to return the next day since they had a change of heart and time to think about. Make no mistake; while Green Bay and Minnesota is a heated rivalry known primarily in the Upper Midwest, it takes on a national meaning this Monday Night.
Like the graphic ESPN showed Saturday night, can you imagine Derek Jeter in Boston uniform, Larry Bird playing for the Lakers or for longtime college football fans, what about Woody Hayes wearing a blue and maize tie with a Michigan hat. Some things in life arent supposed to be yet, Joe Montana wore a Kansas City uniform and Emmett Smith played in Arizona before calling it quits.
The game everyone has been waiting for has taken on added significance because of its importance in the NFC North race. The Packers (2-1 SU &ATS) and Vikings (2-1 ATS) will be playing for more than just Brett Favre, when they get together on Monday. The Vikings are 3-0, thanks in large part to Favres last second heroics last week against San Francisco. They have won five straight games as divisional hosts but are 2-3 ATS in that span. Minnesota trails in the all time series 49-45-1, having lost five of last six, but is 19-8 ATS in home games after a win by six or less points.
Since the day Aaron Rodgers fell on draft day to the Green Bay Packers, his professional career has had a peculiar path, through no fault of his own. The next chapter is written tonight and he would love nothing better than to be the star that leads the Packers to victory in this arresting contest. Unfortunately, Rodgers has had to have more moves that a salsa dancer, since the best blocking scheme the Green Bay offensive line has come up with is the look out block, with Rodgers sacked 12 times already. The Packers are 17-7 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy and 14-5 ATS in divisional games.
The wagering public has been hitting Minnesota hard, moving them from three-point favorites to 4.5 at Betonline.com, with total at 45.5. Minnesota is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at the MetroDome. This head-to-head series has seen some significant trends, particularly the games in Minnesota, where dogs are on a 13-3 ATS run, and the OVER is 6-1.
Green Bay covers if their run defense holds up. The Packers are allowing a respectable 3.9 yards per carry; however teams have shown no fear in taking them on, averaging 33 attempts. This means keeping Adrian Peterson in check, no easy task. The offensive line has to perform. For all the talk over the last few years about the Vikings run defense, Mike McCarthys schemes have worked pretty well. Keep Rodgers from getting rug burns and attack Minnesota secondary with three and four receiver sets. The Vikes are notorious for weak special teams, win the under the radar stat decidedly to put offense in better scoring positions.
Minnesota covers if they do what everyone else has done to Packers O-line, abuse them. Jered Allen probably hasnt slept all week thinking about how many times he could sack Rodgers. Green Bays run game isnt strong enough to offset their lack of ability to move the chains without the pass. One word said three times- Attack, Attack, Attack. The Vikings have gained 407 yards rushing in last two games against the Pack, why shouldnt they do it again, especially if Favre can put them in right play against run blitzes. Feed Peterson like a hungry tiger. The pass rush isnt going to get Rodgers every time, the secondary has to make sure they stick with Packers receivers, as Rodgers is well-respected for ability to throw deep accurately.
This will be a spectacle.
Monday Night System - Play On a division favorite of a touchdown or less that has won two straight games. (26-9 ATS)