NFL News and Notes Monday 11/16

BALTIMORE (4 - 4) at CLEVELAND (1 - 7)

Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Baltimore

BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND
BALTIMORE: 16-5 ATS on grass
CLEVELAND: 6-0 Under off non-conference game

MNF - Ravens at Browns
By Kevin Rogers

Following several intriguing matchups on the Sunday card of Week 10 in the NFL, the schedule-makers provide for us on a silver platter…the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football. The Browns play the team that left Cleveland prior to the 1995 season, the Ravens in Northern Ohio on Monday. Baltimore is in desperate need of a victory, sitting at 4-4, while Cleveland is just desperate to get in the end zone.

The Ravens started the season with plenty of promise, as John Harbaugh's team won three straight games out of the gate. The offense was clicking behind second-year quarterback Joe Flacco, averaging 34 ppg in victories over the Chiefs, Chargers, and Browns. Baltimore hit a bump in the road the next three games, falling at New England, at home to Cincinnati, then at Minnesota.

The losses to the Bengals and Vikings were huge heartbreakers, as Cincinnati scored the go-ahead touchdown with under 30 seconds remaining. The Bengals won outright as nine-point road underdogs, 17-14. Baltimore rallied from a 17-point fourth quarter deficit at Minnesota the following week to take a late 31-30 lead, before the Vikings drove down for the game-winning field goal. The Ravens, though, did cover as three-point road 'dogs, 33-31.

Baltimore rebounded nicely after its bye week to pound previously unbeaten Denver, 30-7. The Broncos began the season at 6-0, but the Ravens shut down Denver's offense with a 24-7 second-half surge, capped off by a late Ray Rice touchdown run. The Ravens could not capitalize off the Broncos' victory, as Baltimore was tripped up by Cincinnati again, this time 17-7 at Paul Brown Stadium.

The Browns have been an utter disaster all season, and the number one reason why is still hard to figure out. It probably starts at the top with head coach Eric Mangini, who led the Jets to an 8-3 record last season before a late-season meltdown resulted in a 9-7 finish and no trip to the postseason. Mangini lost his job, and the Browns scooped him up to replace Romeo Crennel. Mangini walked into a quarterback controversy after the team was expected to give third-year quarterback Brady Quinn the starting nod over Derek Anderson.

Quinn got the job to start the season, but did very little to impress, throwing just one touchdown and three interceptions in three losses. If it is any consolation, the former Notre Dame star faced three tough defenses in that span (Minnesota, Denver, and Baltimore), but Cleveland tallied only 29 points those games. Quinn got the hook in the earlier loss to the Ravens in favor of Anderson, who didn't fare much better. The lone Browns' win came on Anderson's watch in Week 5, an ugly 6-3 triumph at Buffalo.

Amazingly, the Browns covered three straight games in which Anderson started - an overtime loss to the Bengals, the field-goal fest at Buffalo, and a road defeat at Pittsburgh. The last two games may have been the last straw for the former Pro Bowl QB, as Anderson led the Browns to nine points combined in losses to the Packers and Bears.

Quinn is back under center Monday night, trying to reinvigorate an offense with no substantial big-play receivers since the trade of Braylon Edwards to the Jets in October. The Browns' offense has found the end zone a mind-numbing four times this season, which is last in the league.

This series has been dominated by the Ravens recently, as Baltimore has won the last three meetings. The Ravens took care of the Browns at home in Week 3 by a 34-3 count, and swept the season series in 2008. Prior to that, Cleveland covered five straight meetings from the end of the 2005 season to 2007.

The Browns are no stranger to receiving plenty of points on Monday Night Football, shocking the Giants last season as nine-point home underdogs, 35-14 in Week 6 of 2008.

The 'over' trend on Monday Night Football hit the skids last week in Denver, as the Steelers and Broncos finished 'under' the total. The 'over' is now 8-2 on the season in Monday action, and up to 24-5-1 since the beginning of 2008.

VI capper Bruce Marshall feels that in spite of getting plenty of points to work with, it's tough to back the home team, "Although Baltimore has hit some bumps in the road, it is too hard to make a case for Cleveland. Perhaps Quinn gives the Browns a better chance than Anderson, but the team and organization is dysfunctional and apparently on the cusp of mutiny against the overmatched Eric Mangini. Indeed, this now might qualify as the most disorganized setup in the NFL, with GM George Kokinis recently hustled (literally) out of the organization and the Lerners realizing what a mistake was made with the Mangini hire."

Baltimore is currently on the outside of the AFC playoff picture at 4-4, but according to Marshall, this may be exactly what cures the Ravens' ills, "The Browns have shown up at just the right time on the Ravens' schedule, and we doubt Quinn fares much better than in the first meeting, when he was first pulled for Anderson. Remember that the Brownies have only scored an offensive TD in 4 of their 8 games, and five times have been held under 10 points."

Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetED.com says that the long number is warranted, despite it being seldom in a primetime spot. "This is a rare Monday Night double-digit home underdog line. Baltimore has been very unlucky in three of their four losses this season. There is a big bounce-back opportunity that is presented in this line after the Ravens lost handily last week to Cincinnati," Scott comments.

As far as which way the public is going, Scott says the Ravens are the choice of the people so far, "The public is one-sided so far betting Baltimore over 95%. The biggest bet is teasing Baltimore to -5 or lower. Despite the lopsided action and the expectation the action will continue one way, we don't expect the line to move up much, not higher that -11.5. The total of 40 points hasn't been touched yet, we expect to see that number come down a bit."

Currently, the Ravens are listed as 10½ point road favorites in most spots, with the number creeping up to 11 at several outfits. The total is setting steady at 40, but if you hustle up, you can still grab it at 39½.

vegasinsider.com

What Bettors Need to Know: Ravens at Browns
By MATT SOUTHARD

Line movement

The line opened at 11 and 10.5 at most books in favor of Baltimore and has stayed around that area. The total opened at 40 and has remained constant for the most part, with some dips to 39.5.

Weather

Temperatures should be in the upper 40s around kickoff with partly cloudy skies.

Injuries

Ravens defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (ankle) is questionable. Wide receiver Chansi Stuckey (calf), tight end Steve Heiden (knee) and cornerback Eric Wright (upper body) are questionable for the Browns.

Ravens nevermore in the first half

Baltimore has lost four of five games after a 3-0 start. The club’s slow starts are part of the reason for the slump.

The Ravens have not scored an offensive touchdown in the first half of their past four games. That translates to nine scoreless quarters and 25 fruitless possessions.

“I think it’s a combination of two things,” Baltimore wide receiver Derrick Mason said. “Mental errors and you’ve got to give credit to the other defense.”

Downward defense

The Ravens are trying to figure out how to fix their once-elite defense.

The offense needs to stay on the field to give the defense a break. In their past four defeats, the Ravens have allowed opponents to hold the ball for 143 minutes and 58 seconds compared to just 97:02.

A few more forced turnovers would be welcomed for Baltimore backers. The club has just one interception in its last five games. Baltimore did snare four picks in a 34-3 thrashing at home against the Browns earlier this year.

Cleveland’s quagmire

The bye week is supposed to be a time for rest, reflection, but the Cleveland Browns struggled to find any of that.

Browns general manager George Kokinis was fired on Nov. 2. The move followed a 30-6 loss to the Bears and Kokinis’ refusal to resign after being pressured by team owner Randy Learner. Kokinis had been on the job for less than a year.

To make internal matters worse, Mangini’s demanding practice regimen was criticized by running back Jamal Lewis, who claimed he has practiced in full pads this season more than any point in his NFL career.

“You can work as hard as you want. You can work all day, seven days a week all the way up to Sunday in practice. But at the same time, if you’re going to work like that, then maybe on Sunday you’re probably not going to get what you want out of your players,” Lewis said.

Quinn again

Mangini is going back to square one with opening day starter Brady Quinn.

Quinn was pulled at halftime of the Baltimore game earlier this season after throwing for just 34 yards and an interception. In 2.5 games this season, Quinn is 46-of-77 for 409 yards, one touchdown and two picks.

Mangini made the move due in part to Derek Anderson’s awful performance over the last five games and because Quinn was looking good in practice.

With Quinn as starting quarterback, the Browns are 0-3 ATS this season.

“I’m excited to play,” Quinn said. “I’m excited to be part of Monday night.”

Trends

Ravens are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing record.

Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.

Browns are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games.

Browns are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.

Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams.

Baltimore (4-4, 5-3 ATS) at Cleveland (1-7, 3-5 ATS)
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The Ravens travel to Cleveland Stadium looking to hand the hapless Browns a fourth straight loss in a battle between AFC North rivals.

Baltimore, which started the season 3-0 SU and ATS but is currently on a 1-4 SU (2-3 ATS) slide, is coming off last Sunday’s 17-7 loss at Cincinnati as a three-point road favorite. The Ravens’ vaunted defense ranks just 13th in the NFL, allowing 320.6 total yards per game, and it is 19th when defending the pass, allowing 225.8 ypg. Meanwhile the offense is 10th in the league, averaging 358.2 yards per contest and 11th in the passing game, netting 242.1 ypg through the air.

Cleveland, outscored 61-9 in its last two games, hasn’t been able to score more than 20 points in any game this season, scoring 14 points or less in four straight contests (7.25 ppg). Additionally, the Browns have produced a single field goal in two games and six points in three others, including a 30-6 loss in Chicago back on Nov. 1 before getting a bye last week. The Browns are dead last in the league in scoring offense (9.8 ppg), 31st in total offense (221.1 ypg) and dead last in passing offense (121.5 ypg).
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With their offense stuck in a season-long funk, the Browns are making another QB switch this week, going back to original starter Brady Quinn in place of Derek Anderson. Quinn completed close to 60 percent of his throws in starting the first three games of the season but had just 409 yards, one TD and three INTs, with Cleveland tallying 29 total points while going 0-3 SU and ATS.

The Ravens have won three in a row SU and ATS in this series, including a 34-3 blowout win back on Sept. 27, easily cashing as 13½-point favorites. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco threw for 342 yards in that game, and the Ravens’ defense picked off four passes, including one from Quinn in the first half and three from Anderson in the second half. Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last four trips to Cleveland, and the home team is on an 8-3 ATS run in this rivalry.
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Baltimore’s current 1-4 slump includes three straight road losses (1-2 ATS). Meanwhile, the Browns have lost all three home games (1-2 ATS).

The Ravens are on positive ATS runs of 20-8 overall, 12-5 against AFC teams, 9-4 on the road, 5-1 after a straight-up loss and 10-3 as a favorite, but they’re just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a road chalk. Cleveland is on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 3-10-1 overall, 1-6-1 at home, 1-4-1 in November and 2-9-1 after a straight-up loss. The lone bright spot for the Browns: They went 2-1 SU and ATS in Monday Night Football last year, including a 35-14 rout of the undefeated Giants as a nine-point home underdog.

Baltimore has topped the total in six of nine November games, seven of nine against losing teams, 10 of 14 on the road (4-1 last five) and four straight Monday contests, however the Ravens have stayed under the total in four straight as a favorite and four of five against AFC teams. The Browns are on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-2-1 after an ATS loss, 5-2 against the AFC and 18-8-1 on grass.
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The over is 4-1-1 in the last six clashes in this rivalry, and the over is 19-6-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (8-2 this year).

ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE and OVER

MNF Week 10

Ravens (4-4) @ Browns (1-7)-- Hideous Cleveland likely to go back to Quinn at QB this week, after they scored total of 29 points in last four games (two TDs on last 43 drives). Browns (+13.5) got squashed 34-3 in Baltimore back in Week 3 (outgained 479-186), as Ravens averaged 8.9 ypp and had TO ratio of +3. Ravens lost four of last five games; they're 3-2 as favorite, with wins by 14-5-31-23 points. Three of last four Baltimore games, five of Browns' last seven games stayed under total. Ravens won here 37-27 LY, after losing three of previous four visits to this site. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in AFC North games this season, with Browns' loss in Baltimore the only setback

Take the Cleveland Browns, Please!
By Doug Upstone

Even the biggest of Browns fans is fed up. "Dawg Pound Mike," whose real name is Mike Randall, could have an impact Monday night than anyone in uniform. The longtime season-ticket holder in the front row of the rowdy end zone bleacher section is encouraging fans to stay away from their seats for the opening kickoff of this game against Baltimore to send a message to owner Randy Lerner about the sad state of the franchise.

Cleveland is 1-7 (3-5 ATS) and is invoking sarcastic humor from long time comedians of the past like Henny Youngman and Rodney Dangerfield. The Browns' quarterbacks have been so bad they went massage parlor and found out it was self service.

Cleveland has scored only five offensive touchdowns in 2009, and quarterbacks Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn have combined for three touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. Even Josh Cribbs, the team's most spectacular player, has been picked off. The Browns are dead last in passing offense at 121.5 yards per game and average 4.2 yards per pass attempt. Cleveland is 20-51 ATS when they gain five or less net passing yards an attempt.

The Browns have had better than two weeks to get ready for this game and the only news out of Cleveland is turmoil. Eric Manginis players think hes more Atilla the Hun than their football coach. Internet reports of extremely long practices and Mangini being too heavy handed, has talk of Mutiny on Lake Erie. Mangini is looking more like some of the evil characters on the Sopranos, of which he made a guest appearance back when everything was much rosier as coach of the Jets.

The Browns are looking to snap a six-game losing streak vs. divisional foes, but they are 2-1 ATS in that scenario thus far. The Cleveland fans think there team is playing like dogs and have started calling the team "Egypt", because they leave a pyramid after each game. (Thanks, Rodney)

Sportbet.com has Baltimore as 10.5-point favorites with total of 38.5. The Ravens are presumed to win and Monday night road teams as chalk of nine or more are 11-5 ATS in most recent outings. The favorite has been the way to go in Cleveland's post-bye week games, 7-1 ATS in last eight contests. However, the Ravens have struggled in Cleveland of late, going just 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in five previous visits. Baltimore (4-4, 5-3 ATS) has lost four of last five, nevertheless is 15-7-1 ATS after losing as a favorite, which happened in Cincinnati last week.

The Cleveland Browns wives joined a bridge club, they jump off next Tuesday.

Baltimore covers if they change it up a bit. Cleveland is expected to make lots of miscues, thus go no-huddle and take the game to them. Most bad teams only need a reason to quit playing, give them one by having Joe Flacco flinging the ball around and opening up the field for Ray Rice. This is the perfect opponent to blitz like mad-men since Browns receivers are useless in creating separation. In truth, the Ravens just have to play Baltimore football, which should be good enough.

Cleveland covers if Brady Quinn can lead the Browns offense to early scores. Cleveland is devoid of any real game-breakers, thus must move the chains and be mistake-free, something they have been unable to do. Quinn needs to be accurate with his throws, since the Baltimore corners are nothing special. Hopefully the Browns coaching staff added Wildcat to their offense with the time off, giving their one true playmaker Cribbs a chance to at least try and make something happen. If the Brownies were playing attention on Sunday, a number of bad teams gave great effort and either almost won or did win against better teams by playing loose, with nothing to lose, why not do the same.

Monday Night System - Play Against home team off a bye hosting a division foe. (11-2 ATS, L16Y)

Tips and Trends

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Ravens (-11, O/U 39): Baltimore comes into tonights game strugglng, losers of 4 of their last 5 games SU. 3 of the past 4 games have seen the offense struggle, as they've been held under 100 YDS rushing and under 200 YDS passing. This Ravens offense hasn't scored an offensive TD in the first half of the previous 4 games. QB Joe Flacco (over 2000 YDS passing, 12 TDs) and RB Ray Rice lead this offense. Rice leads all NFL running backs in catches, with 46. This Ravens defense will look to stop the running game of the Browns. Easier said than done, considering the Ravens have given up more than 100 YDS rushing in 3 of their past 4 games.

Ravens are 9-3 last 12 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - DE Haloti Ngata (ankle) is questionable.
LB Ray Lewis (foot) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Browns: This is only the 3rd home game in the past 8 games for the Browns. Cleveland only has 1 win on the season, but have used their bye week to get ready for today. Browns are going with QB Brady Quinn today, and will look to improve an anemic offense. This offense is the 31st ranked total offense, and also has the 2nd most turnovers in football. Avoiding turnovers has been a key focus of their bye week. This Browns team has given up 88 points over the past 3 games. KR Joshua Cribbs is the Browns most dynamic player, and will need to play well on special teams to give his team a chance today.

Home team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games following a bye week.

Key Injuries - TE Robert Royal (flu) is questionable.
CB Eric Wright (upper body) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Can Quinn beat the Ravens?
By SPORTSBETTING.COM

If Baltimore (4-4) wasn’t feeling a sense of urgency heading into their Monday nighter vs. the dreadful Browns (1-7), they are now!

Bet NFL Week 10

The surging Cincinnati Bengals moved to 5-0 straight-up in divisional games Sunday with an 18-12 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Not normally known as fans of the Steel Curtain, there was probably more than a few Raven players glued to the set for that Bengal win, asking what everyone else is wondering: How did Cincy get so good, so fast?

With their focus now turned 100-percent on Monday Night Football, the person who should perhaps be feeling the most anxiety is Browns quarterback Brady Quinn. Benched during his awful Week 3 performance against this very Baltimore team, Quinn is back under center Monday for his second round of the season as starter.

Quinn’s numbers from the first three weeks, nor the stats Derek Anderson produced in his five-week post at No. 1 pivot, will not be hard to top. After all, Anderson (36.2) has the lowest QB rating in the league. Unfortunately the offense has thinned at talent, the defense is losing hope and until someone can make sense of the coaching and management fiasco at Brownsville, it looks like another limp to the finish is in store.

Baltimore looked great in its Week 8 home game vs. the then unbeaten Denver Broncos, treating bettors to a 30-7 win. Betting on the Ravens has been a losing proposition since Week 4, though, as the team is just 2-3 ATS in their past five outings.

Online sportsbooks opened the line for the Ravens-Browns game just a shade higher than 10 and the contest attracted very little attention through the past week. Cleveland is rested off a bye week but divisional home teams off a bye are just 2-12 ATS when playing under the Monday night lights. It has added up to an increase of betting on the road favorite that began late Sunday and will likely continue up until kickoff.

Ravens running back Ray Rice has been a big part of any success on offense this season and will be featured as a major part of the attack Monday. Leading all backs in receptions this year; Rice is second in net yards from scrimmage with 126.1 per game. He has also scored four rushing TDs in the past three games so against Cleveland’s 31st ranked run defense, Rice should flourish.

In the first meeting this season the Ravens throttled the Browns 34-3 and in eight games this year Baltimore has broken the 30-point barrier five times. It has been 15 games since Cleveland achieved such a lofty point total.

This is the first Monday Night game of the season for each of these teams and neither has played a single game under the lights since last year. The Browns were 2-1 ATS on Monday in 2008 while the Ravens went 1-0 ATS, losing straight-up vs. Pittsburgh in Week 4. Given the circumstances, Baltimore looks to have an upper hand in the motivation department and it now comes down to execution.

The line is currently -11 with the betting action heavily favouring the Ravens, with close to 80% of the volume on the big favourite.

Enjoy the game

Bet NFL Week 10