Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
If familiarity breeds contempt, there should be animosity aplenty on Monday when the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints meet at Louisiana Superdome.
Oddsmakers currently have the Saints listed as 12-point favorites versus the Falcons, while the game's total is sitting at 55½.
The Falcons lost to Dallas 37-21 as a 5-point underdog in Week 7. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (48).
Matt Ryan passed for 198 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions and Roddy White caught six passes for 50 yards and a TD.
The Saints defeated Miami 46-34 as a 6.5-point favorite in Week 7. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (48).
Drew Brees passed for 298 yards with a touchdown pass, three interceptions and two TD runs for New Orleans, while Jeremy Shockey caught four passes for 105 yards in the win.
Current streak:
New Orleans has won 6 straight games.
Team records:
Atlanta: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS
New Orleans: 6-0 SU, 6-0 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on turf are 7-3
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 4-6
New Orleans most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing within the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Atlanta is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Atlanta's last 25 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Next up:
Atlanta home to Washington, Sunday, November 8
New Orleans home to Carolina, Sunday, November 8
Atlanta (4-2 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (6-0 SU and ATS)
The Saints shoot for their seventh straight victory to open the season when they welcome the Falcons into the Superdome for a prime-time battle between NFC South rivals.
New Orleans brings the league’s top-ranked offense into this game, putting up 427.3 yards per game and a whopping 39.7 points per contest. QB Drew Brees is completing 67 percent of his passes for has 1,698 passing yards with 14 TDs and just five INTs. Last week in Miami, Brees had three-first-half turnovers as the Saints fell behind 24-3 at halftime before rallying for a 46-34 victory over the Dolphins, covering as six-point favorites as to remain perfect against the number this season.
Atlanta went to Dallas last weekend and fell 37-21 as a 5½-point underdog, snapping a two-game SU and ATS winning streak. The Falcons’ running game has been slowed with RB Michael Turner averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, more than a yard less than last season when he ranked second in the NFL with 1,699 rushing yards. The Falcons are surrendering just 19 ppg, which ranks 11th in the league, but they’re 25th in total defense, giving up 368.3 total yards per game, and 26th in pass defense (250.7 ypg).
These teams split last year’s two contests with the home team winning and covering in each. The Saints scored a 29-25 home win in December as a three-point favorites after Atlanta won 34-20 at home as a one-point chalk. New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 4-1 in the last five played in the Superdome.
The Falcons are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 divisional games, but otherwise are on pointspread surges of 8-1 after a straight-up loss, 4-1 in November, 8-2 after a non-cover and 8-3 over the last 11 years in Week 8 contests. The Saints are just 2-7 ATS in the last nine years in Week 8 games, but they are currently riding ATS waves of, 18-7-1 overall, 7-1 at home, 18-5 as a favorite, 6-0 as a home chalk and 7-1-1 against the NFC.
The total has alternated in all six of Atlanta’s games this year, with last week’s game at Dallas soaring way over the number. The Falcons have stayed below the posted total in 38 of 56 road games and 18 of 25 November contests, but otherwise the “over” is on streaks of 5-1 against the NFC, 8-3 in Week 8, 10-4 after a non-cover and 10-3 after a straight-up loss.
New Orleans is on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 19-7-1 overall (4-2 this year), 15-5-1 at home (2-1 this year), 34-16-1 against NFC teams, 6-2 in divisional games and 16-6-1 as a favorite. Also, the over has been the play in each of the last three meetings between these squads.
Finally, the “over” is 18-5-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (7-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NFL Week 8
Falcons (4-2) @ Saints (6-0)-- Home team won seven of last nine series games, with Atlanta losing last four visits to Superdome by 13-20-6-4 points, in what is NFL's most underrated rivalry. Saints have yet to win by less than a dozen points, scoring 36 second half points to blow past Miami 46-34 in game they trailed 24-3 in 2nd quarter. NO scored 11 TDs on 29 drives in last two tilts, getting 11 TDs, one FG in last 12 red zone drives. Falcons are 1-2 away from home, with both losses by 16 points (NE/Dallas); they scored 12 TDs on last 34 drives, with only one FG attempt- Dallas sacked Ryan four times, after he hadn't been sacked in his last four games. Four of six Saint games went over.
What Bettors Need to Know: Falcons at Saints
By VICTOR RYAN
Line movement
The Saints opened as 9-point favorites. The line has moved all the way to -11 and some offshore shops have it listed as high as -11.5. The total has been moved up to 55 most everywhere after opening at 53.5.
On the flip side
While it’s been the New Orleans’ high-octane offense that’s garnered most of the headlines this season, and deservingly so, the defensive unit has played nearly as big a role in the Saints perfect 6-0 start.
The Saints’ ‘D,’ led by safety Darren Sharper, has feasted on big plays this season. The group has forced 18 turnovers (tied for the league high) and scored six touchdowns. Three of those scores were registered by Sharper, who has six interceptions overall.
“That (turnover) statistic is one area that’s glaringly different for all of us. It has helped us a bunch as a team,” Saints’ coach Sean Payton told the Associated Press. “You hear each week talk about this Saints team scoring 39 points per game, and I think the myth initially is that the offense is scoring all those points. The reality of it is that there are turnovers involved in there. There’s a lot that goes into a number like that that can get skewed. So the takeaways have been significant.”
The Saints’ ball-hawking defense could be in for another big day. The Falcons have been struggling with turnovers of late. Quarterback Matt Ryan was intercepted twice and had two fumbles - losing one - in the Falcons’ 37-21 loss in Dallas last weekend. Ryan is coming off consecutive games with at least two interceptions for the first time in his young career.
“Any time you lose the turnover battle in this league, it’s tough to come back and win games.” Ryan said. “So that’s my focus this week, to be better with the football, but at the same time you can’t lose that aggressiveness. You have to continue to go out there and try to make plays.”
Injuries
The Saints will be without two significant contributors. Fullback Heath Evans was placed on injured reserve this week because of a torn ACL and starting defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis is also out because of a knee injury.
Evans has been a key blocker in the Saints’ running game, which ranks third in the NFL. He also had three touchdowns, two coming on short receptions near the goal line.
“He’s to date really played well for us both in the running game and the passing game,” Payton said. “You never like to lose a starter. It will be up to the rest of these guys at the tight end position, fullback position, potentially one of our halfbacks to take over that role, but it does change what you’ve been accustomed to with the starter that’s out.”
The Falcons have been hard hit by injuries, especially in the offensive backfield and along the defensive line. Jerious Norwood, who backs up Michael Turner at tailback, is expected to miss a second straight game because of a hip flexor.
Jason Snelling, who filled Norwood’s backup spot last week and responded with 68 yards on seven carries against the Cowboys, has been limited this week because of a hamstring injury and may not play.
Fullback Ovie Mughelli has also been limited at practice this week after missing the previous two games with a calf injury.
“Well, we are not going to make excuses, but we like to have our first-line players out there,” said Falcons’ coach Mike Smith. “I think Ovie is an outstanding blocking back and in our two-back running game he’s a big, big part of it.”
As for the defensive line, starters John Abraham (foot), Jonathan Babineaux (ankle) and Thomas Johnson (calf) are all listed as questionable. Kroy Biermann was also added to the injury report late in the week because of a neck injury.
Head-to-head
These teams split their two meetings last year. Atlanta covered as 1-point home favorites 34-20 in November and the Saints came back a month later to avenge the loss with a 29-25 home win as 3-point favorites. Both games went over the listed total.
Trends
The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a straight-up loss. The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up win. The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
The over is 10-3 in the Falcons last 13 games following a straight-up loss. The over is 11-2-1 in the Saints last 14 games as a home favorite.
The Falcons are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in New Orleans.
MNF - Falcons at Saints
By Kevin Rogers
The amount of undefeated teams in the NFL has trickled down to two, as the Saints look to move to 7-0 on the season, hosting the arch-rival Falcons on Monday Night. Amazingly, it has taken until November for New Orleans to play its first division contest of the season, as the Saints will play three of their next four games against the NFC South.
Drew Brees and the Saints have been one of the top stories in the NFL this season, especially with the way their offense has clicked. New Orleans ranks first in the league in yards a game (427.3), while putting up a shade under 40 points a contest (39.7). The last two weeks the Saints have tallied 94 points in victories over the Giants and Dolphins, but the path to those high outputs came in different fashions.
The Saints routed the Giants at the Superdome, 48-27, two weeks ago, handing New York its first loss of the season. New Orleans got in the end zone in five of its six first-half possessions, while Brees tossed four touchdown passes. The Saints were on the verge of dropping their first game last week at Miami, digging themselves a 24-3 hole. Brees scored on a quarterback sneak to end the half, giving the Saints some life, trailing 24-10. Miami's offense started to come apart in the second half, as New Orleans scored the final 22 points of the game to win 46-34, covering for the sixth straight time.
The Falcons seem to be lost in the shuffle in this discussion, as Matt Ryan's club sits at 4-2 and two games back of the Saints in the NFC South. Atlanta started the season on the right foot, winning consecutive home games over Miami and Carolina, two division champions from a season ago. Obviously both these teams have fallen by the wayside this season, but they were still solid victories at the time for Mike Smith's squad.
Atlanta has always been a strong play at the Georgia Dome, but on the road is a different story. The Falcons fell at Foxboro in Week 3 to the Patriots, 26-10, as Ryan was held to 199 yards passing and reigning rushing champion Michael Turner was limited to 59 yards on the ground. Atlanta made up for that loss following its bye week by pummeling San Francisco, 45-10. However, the Falcons were tripped up in Dallas last week, 37-21, as the Cowboys amassed more than 400 yards of offense.
The last two Monday Night matchups between these teams have incorporated interesting storylines - one prior to the game and the other after the game. Back in 2006, following the devastation to the city of New Orleans and neighboring areas due to Hurricane Katrina, the Saints' first home game back at the Superdome was a Monday Nighter against the Falcons. New Orleans came out with a vengeance by blocking a punt and taking it back for a touchdown, spurring a 23-3 rout, easily covering as four-point home 'dogs.
In 2007, a very forgettable Monday Night affair at the Georgia Dome saw the Saints blow out the Falcons, 34-14. The largest story came following the game, as Falcons head coach Bobby Petrino quit the next day to fill the coaching vacancy at the University of Arkansas. The suspension of Michael Vick and the Petrino departure actually was a blessing in disguise for this franchise, as the Falcons claimed a playoff berth in Ryan and Smith's first season in Atlanta in 2008.
The home team won both meetings last season, while both games finished 'over' the total. In Week 10, the Falcons took care of the Saints, 34-20, despite Brees throwing for 422 yards. Atlanta didn't allow New Orleans into the end zone in the first three quarters, while Turner grinded out 96 yards and a touchdown.
The Saints turned the trick in Week 14 at the Superdome, 29-25, covering as three-point favorites. Brees threw for just 230 yards, but did not toss an interception (as opposed to the three in Atlanta the previous meeting). A pair of Pierre Thomas touchdowns in the fourth quarter proved to be the difference for a Saints team that won just eight games last season.
In Sean Payton's tenure as coach of the Saints, New Orleans is just 3-9 ATS as a home favorite against an opponent off a SU loss. The Falcons have actually been a strong play off a defeat, going 8-1 ATS the last nine in that spot. Atlanta is 5-7 SU/ATS under Smith away from Georgia Dome, as this is the longest number the Falcons have seen as a 'dog since the start of last season.
The 'over' continues to dominate Monday Night Football, going on a 7-1 run to begin the season, and 23 of the last 28 since the beginning of 2008. Favorites are 4-4 ATS under the Monday Night Lights this season, while home teams possess the same record.
VI capper Bruce Marshall says the Falcons could have done a better job in the offseason fixing their defense, "Five key Falcon defenders (CB Domonique Foxworth, S Lawyer Milloy, DT Grady Jackson, and LBs Michael Boley & Keith Brooking) left town in the offseason, forcing Mike Smith into a full-blown re-tooling project for the stop unit. As a result the Falcons have been pretty soft against the run, especially since Ole Miss rookie DT Peria Jerry went down with an early knee injury, which along with Jackson's departure left the Falcons without a true run stuffer." The Saints currently rank third in the league in rushing at 154.5 yards/game.
A banged-up defense hasn't helped Atlanta either, according to Marshall. "Now more defensive injuries are piling up (key CB Brian Williams the latest casualty) and it is becoming harder for Smith to camouflage those deficiencies, which were ruthlessly exposed by Dallas last week. The hot Saints are certainly capable of doing the same and more, and don't forget about the Saints defense, either. While Brees & Company steal the headlines, the new Gregg Williams New Orleans "D" and its aggressive, attacking 4-3 scheme is making far more plays this season. Already the Saints have recorded five defensive TDs, a big upgrade from a stop unit that ranked low in forced turnovers before Williams arrived. For the moment, the Saints look awfully hard to beat."
Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetED.com says the home team is seeing the money this week, "One thing is for sure and that's New Orleans will be in every teaser made this weekend. Currently, the Saints are getting slightly more of the straight bet action. The line has moved up from opening -10 to -11 and that's to combat the teasers more than anything."
Following the devastating Sunday the books suffered last week, Scott doesn't believe that moving the spreads up is necessarily the way to go, "Jacking the favorites up is one way to combat these types of decisions, but the strategy here will be not to over-adjust the line and keep the action the same."
The Saints are currently listed as 11-point favorites at most shops, while the total sits at 55, which is the highest in the NFL this season.
vegasinsider.com
NFC South heats up MNF
By AllStar.com
The Atlanta Falcons will be in New Orleans for a prime time Monday Night Football match up against the Saints. The Saints would own a three-game lead over the Falcons with a victory, including a head-to-head win over Atlanta, their closest division competitor. And given the way New Orleans has played thus far, it would be hard to imagine Sean Payton's club relinquishing that type of lead. In the 10 games remaining the Saints' schedule isn't exactly daunting. New Orleans will face Carolina and Tampa twice, then St. Louis, Washington, Dallas, New England. Going unbeaten might be expecting too much, but finishing 15-1 or 14-2 with home field advantage for the entire NFC playoffs is very realistic.
The Saints' 46-34 win over the Dolphins last Sunday marked the fourth time in their six games this season that New Orleans had scored more than 40 points, though it was the Saints underrated defense that scored the two of the most important touchdowns in the game. Darren Sharper and Tracy Porter both took back interceptions for touchdowns in the second half of the win. The Saints defense, along with a running game is the biggest difference in the team from last years. The Saints' have a playmaking defense that is tied for the NFL lead in takeaways (18), interceptions (13), and is allowing opponents to complete a league-low 52.4 percent of their passes. The Saints have 14 sacks in six games.
The Saints' offensive attack is the NFL pace-setter in total offense (427.3 yards per game), touchdowns (31), and is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (12).
Drew Brees threw for three interceptions against Miami but recovered to hit on 22 of 38 for 298 yards and a touchdown pass. Brees was sacked five times in Miami. The Saints have scored 45 or more points in 4 of their games this season. Brees has 14 touchdown passes, thrown for 1698 yards and has a passer rating of 106.8 this season.
New Orleans has the third best rushing attack in the NFL, led by a balance of a Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. The Saints are dedicated to pounding the rock and average 154.5 yards per game.
Drew Brees definitely has the potential to torch the Atlanta secondary with starting cornerback Brian Williams out for the season. Tony Romo and Miles Austin lit them up last week what will Brees with Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Jeremy Shockey do to the 25th ranked NFL defense?
Matt Ryan (1360 passing yards, 11 TD, 6 INT) has not been at his sharpest over the past two outings. Ryan has posted two consecutive sub-70.0 passer ratings, been held under 200 yards by the Bears and Cowboys. Ryan has thrown four interceptions and four touchdown passes over that span. The Falcons attack may not be able to match New Orleans score-for-score if the turnovers (7) by the sophomore quarterback continue; they have hurt Atlanta's efforts this season. Ryan, who had been sacked just twice during the team's 4-1 start, was dropped four times by the Cowboys.
The Atlanta running game is a disappointing 19th in the NFL averaging 102.8 yards per game. Michael Turner is not putting up the same type of numbers as his Pro Bowl season of 2008. Turner was held to 50 yards on 18 carries by the Cowboys, but did score his seventh touchdown of the season. Jerious Norwood missed the Dallas game with a hip injury and is questionable for Monday.
Primary targets Roddy White (33 receptions, 5 TD) and Tony Gonzalez (27 receptions, 3 TD) combined for just 87 receiving yards in last week's loss to the Cowboys, though White did find the end zone for the third consecutive game.
Ryan and the Falcons attack may not be able to match New Orleans score-for-score, as the turnovers by the sophomore quarterback (six INT, one fumble) have hurt Atlanta's efforts. Ryan, who had been sacked just twice during the team's 4-1 start, was dropped four times by the Cowboys.
Atlanta's biggest concern may be with the team's 25th-ranked defense, which struggled to slow down Dallas' Tony Romo, who threw for 311 yards and three touchdowns. The Falcons defense has been vulnerable to the run game at times this season. Cornerbacks Grimes, Houston and Jackson also figure to have their hands full this week.
The Drive for the NFL South Title starts Monday Night in New Orleans on Monday Night Football.
SERIES HISTORY: Atlanta leads the all-time regular season series with New Orleans, 44-35, including a conventional home-and-home split last season. The Falcons were 34-20 winners when the teams met at the Georgia Dome in Week 10, and dropped a 29-25 decision to the Saints in the Superdome during Week 14. . The Falcons are 0-3 in series road games since 2005, and are 0-5 in New Orleans since last winning there in 2002.
Sean Peyton is 5-1 against the Falcons as a head coach, while Atlanta's Mike Smith is 1-1 against both Peyton and the Saints as a head man.
Injuries:
ATLANTA: 10 Questionable… DE Kroy Bierman, DT Thomas Johnson, RB Jerious Norwood, RB Jason Snelling, DE John Abraham, DT Jonathan Babineaux DT, OT Sam Baker, S Antoine Harris, CB Chris Owens, RB Ovie Mughelli. 2 Probable…LB Tony Gilbert, LS Mick Schenk
NEW ORLEANS: 1 Out..DT Sedrick Ellis 1 Questionable LB Scott Fujita.. 12 Probable K John Carney, LB Jonathan Casillas, G Jahari Evans, C Jonathan Goodwin, CB Malcolm Jenkins, LB Marvin Mitchell, CB Tracey Porter, TE Jeremy Shocky, OT Jonathan Stinchcomb, CB Leigh Young, S Usama Young
Betting Trends:
The Falcons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against the Saints
The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in New Orleans
The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games
The Saints are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games
The OVER is 19-7-1 in the Saints last 27 home games
ATLANTA (4 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (6 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-39 ATS (-23.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA: 8-1 Under off an Over
NEW ORLEANS: 8-1 ATS in home games
Tips and Trends
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Falcons: The Falcons rank eighth in scoring defense giving up an average of 19 points per game. But Atlanta will have to be at its best to hold the Saints, who are averaging an NFL-best 39.7 points per contest and are ahead of pace to break the Patriots’ single-season scoring record set two years ago. Atlanta has failed to cover in eight of the past 12 times it has been a road underdog. Michael Turner is averaging 3.4 yards per carry, more than a yard less than he averaged a year ago when he ranked second in the league with 1,699 yards rushing. Matt Ryan has thrown four interceptions the past two games, the most he’s thrown during any two-game stretch of his two-year NFL career. This is the highest over/under of the season. The last time these two teams scored more than a combined 54 points was 2005.
The Under is 38-17-1 in Atlanta’s last 56 road contests.
The Falcons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Week 8 games.
Key Injuries - Running backs Jerious Norwood (hip) is doubtful.
Running back Jason Snelling (hamstring) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 22 (Side of the Day)
Saints (-11.5, O/U 54.5): New Orleans has beaten Atlanta in five of its last six meetings, covering the spread four times. So far this has been the Saints’ best team ever. New Orleans is 6-0 straight-up and against the spread. The Saints have scored at least 24 points in every game. They have covered the spread in their six games by a combined 71 ½ points. Under new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, the Saints have picked off 13 passes, four of which were returned for touchdowns. Drew Brees has the third-highest quarterback ratings and has thrown for 14 touchdowns. The Saints have gotten more balanced with Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell combining for 50 carries the past two weeks. New Orleans has covered seven of its last eight games at the Superdome, including defeating Atlanta, 29-25, last December. The Saints are 18-5 against the spread the past 23 times they’ve been favored.
The Over is 11-2-1 in the Saints’ last 14 games as a home favorite.
The Over is 15-5-1 in the Saints’ last 21 home contests.
Key Injuries - Defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis (knee) is out.
Linebacker Scott Fujita (calf) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 33
NFL Bettors know "Who Dat?"
By Doug Upstone
The New Orleans Saints are one of two unbeaten teams remaining in the National Football League and are 6-0. They have built a two game lead in the NFC South without playing a single division contest. That will change on Monday Night at the Superdome when they welcome second place Atlanta.
The Saints and Falcons have long played a competitive and entertaining head-to-head series. Each division in football has their rivalries. Most are regional in nature and in the South; nothing is bigger for professional football fans than this matchup. The stakes are higher than ever with both teams legitimate playoff contenders and possibly more.
In the early years, Atlanta was the dominate player and still leads the all-time series 45-35, however in the last few seasons, New Orleans has had the better of it winning five of six with four covers.
The term "Big Easy" would be an accurate description of how Drew Brees and company have piled up the yards and points. The Saints offense has totaled a league-high 427.3 yards per game, averaging 39.7 points per game. The scary part is they have done it every way imaginable. New Orleans has passed for over 350 yards against Detroit and the New York Giants and run the ball down the throats of Buffalo for 222 yards. Last week, after being severely gashed by Miami in trailing 24-3 on the road, all they did was outscore the Dolphins 43-10 the last 31 minutes of the game. The Saints have covered all their games this season and are 6-0 ATS after two straight games where 50 total points or more were scored.
This is a big game for Atlanta who is 4-2, with matching spread record. Quarterback Matt Ryan has done a good job in his second season, with the Falcons averaging 24 points per game against teams that have allowed 21.3 PPG. Atlanta has stuck with the running game at 28 carries per game, however is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry. Astute football followers could see this coming since running backs like Michael Turner who carry the ball over 350 times in a season, typically see a fall in yards per carry by more than a half a yard the next year. Last season 4.5 YPC for Turner, thus far 3.4.
Atlanta's defense is very dependent on the pass rush, since they pass a soft Cover 2 to protect their mediocre cornerbacks. The Falcons are 27th against the pass (250.7), which is bad fit for New Orleans offense and its multiple weapons. They were abused by Dallas for 37 points and 414 total yards and are 25-8 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
The wagering public loves teams that score points and make this team the only football game on television, it's not hard to figure what way the public will bet, especially at home. Sportbet.com opened New Orleans as 8.5-point favorites and by Sunday morning, the money had been pouring in raising them to 11.
The Falcons will be looking to snap a four-game SU and ATS losing streak in divisional road games and this will be their fourth road contest in last five encounters. The unbeaten Saints are comfortable at home where they've won eight of their last nine games ATS. In the last nine meetings between these two clubs in New Orleans, six have gone UNDER the total. The total of 54.5 is worth following depending on point of view, since the Saints are 11-3 OVER after scoring 30 points or more last game and Atlanta is 12-4 OVER as an underdog of 10.5 to 14 points.
The Falcons cover if Turner or other Atlanta running backs find some explosiveness, sorely lacking thus far. Miami showed for a half how you beat New Orleans, by being physical on the offensive and defensive lines. Controlling the line on offense keeps the Saints offense on the sidelines. Atlanta's defense has to take away something, stop the New Orleans running game to at least force them to play one way. Gap discipline is vital and tackling effective is crucial. In the passing game, Brees has liked to go to Jeremy Shockey early, negate his catches. Matt Ryan has to look off Darren Sharper effectively, as he is smart and has great instincts in getting to the ball, work him underneath with Tony Gonzalez to keep him occupied.
The Saints cover if they play their game and don't become too anxious before a big TV audience and facing a NFC South rival. Coach Sean Payton has been aggressive as play-caller and cut down on the razzle-dazzle. Brees is playing smart football and letting the game come to him, not forcing the action. He will however attack the Atlanta secondary on all three levels. The Saints are 11th in total defense and could stop Birds running game. Ryan is an accurate thrower, but not when forced to throw on every down. The Saints know their good and play hard for 60 minutes, something seldom seen in these parts. Monday night home favorites of nine or more on are 15-5 ATS run.
Monday Night System - Play On a home team facing an opponent that allowed 35 or more points in last contest. (18-4 ATS)