NFL News and Notes Monday 11/22

Gridiron Angles - Week 11
By Vince Akins

Broncos at Chargers – The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since November 23, 2003 the week after scoring 34+ points at home. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since December 13, 1992 as a dog after playing at home as a dog. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS (12.7 ppg) since October 28, 2007 at home when they won and covered their last two games. The Broncos are 0-8 OU (-9.6 ppg) since October 02, 2005 when their ats mrgin increased over each of their past two games. The Broncos are 7-0 OU (14.8 ppg) since December 17, 1994 as a 7+ dog when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.

Tech Trends - Week 11
By Bruce Marshall

DENVER at SAN DIEGO...Broncos have actually split the last 2 years vs. SD and won a Monday nighter at Qualcomm LY, wearing the old-style unis, 34-23. Still, Bolts 6-1-1 vs. line last 8 in series, and Broncos have only covered 2 of last 12 meetings since ‘04. "Overs" 6-2 last 8 in series, and Denver "over" last 7 as visitor. Norv "over" 9-4 at home since LY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Bolts, based on "totals" and series trends.

Broncos at Chargers: What Bettors Need to Know
By Steve Merril

Current Odds

The Chargers opened as 10-point home favorites and the line has since dropped down to 9.5 and 9 in most locations. This isn’t a surprise since 56 percent of the public is supporting the Broncos according to the Covers.com consensus.

The over/under line opened at 48 and jumped up to 50 total points and 67 percent of the public is predicting a high-scoring game according to the Covers.com consensus. The weather will not be a factor as the forecast is calling for clear conditions with only a 10 percent chance of rain and temperatures in the low 60-degree range at kickoff.

Injury Report

Denver wide receiver Eddie Royal was limited in Saturday’s practice and remains questionable to play tonight with a hamstring injury. Royal is third on the team with 43 receptions and 466 receiving yards this season, and he’s also a key contributor on special teams.

Denver linebacker Robert Ayers and safety Renaldo Hill are both questionable, while cornerback Andre Goodman is expected to miss tonight’s game.

San Diego enters off a bye week, but they still have some serious injury concerns on offense. Tight end Antonio Gates has been downgraded to doubtful after missing the most recent game at Houston two weeks ago. Gates leads the team in receiving with 40 receptions and 663 yards this season and nine touchdowns.

Running back Ryan Matthews has also been downgraded to doubtful with an ankle injury. Mathews is the Chargers’ first-round draft choice from Fresno State this season and is second on the team with 382 rushing yards.

San Diego wide receiver Vincent Jackson has not played this season due to a suspension, while WR Legedu Naanee is doubtful with a hamstring injury.

The Chargers expect to have WR Malcolm Floyd back in the lineup tonight as he is probable after missing the past three games with a hamstring injury. Despite playing only six games this season, Floyd is still second on the team with 513 receiving yards and leads the team with an incredible 21.4 yards per catch.

One-Dimensional Offense

Denver is strictly a passing team. The Broncos average 297 yards through the air per game on a whopping 7.6 yards per pass attempt. They cannot run the ball a lick as they average just 77 yards on the ground per game. But, according to reports, the Broncos will make running the ball their top priority going forward.

”It’s important to be able to run the ball on the road during this time of year,” Broncos wide receiver Brandon Lloyd said.

And running back Knowshon Moreno hinted that may be Denver’s game plan against San Diego.

“Whatever they want, if they want to hand it to me 30 times, I’m down for it,” Moreno said. “I feel pretty fresh right now, feel like I'm hitting the holes pretty hard, pretty fast.”

Head coach Josh McDaniels agrees: “We need to get him going. We’ve always felt he’s an every-down back who had the skill set to play in a lot of different situations.”

It’s hard to change a team’s identity this late in the season so it will be interesting to see if the Broncos do run the ball more in this game.

Hamstrung No More

The Chargers’ offense, especially their wide receivers, has been hit hard by injuries this season.

San Diego’s offense was still putting up big passing numbers without their top receivers on the field, so it’s scary to think what they’ll do now that they’ve got Floyd back.

“I don’t think there’s a play we’ve been hesitant to call or a play that we’ll call more so now that Floyd and Naanee are back,” said Rivers. “Really, that’s the beauty of the system we have, with Norv Turner and the offensive staff.”

They’ll still be without Vincent Jackson who is finishing his three-game suspension and most likely without Antonio Gates who has a plantar fascia injury in his right foot. But Rivers is still confident in the guys he’s throwing to.

“A couple guys go down and we keep the ball rolling. It’s been impressive what those guys have done and, collectively, what the group has done. And now we’re heading into the stretch run.”

Rivers Owns Denver

Rivers has played some of his best games against the Broncos. In eight career games against Denver, Rivers owns a 117.1 passer rating which is his highest among teams he’s faced more than twice. He’s thrown 14 touchdown passes and just three interceptions in those eight games with San Diego winning six of the games.

“I do like playing them,” said Rivers. “All the division games seem like rivalries, but this one, maybe it’s because they have happened to be the team we’re battling to win the division every year.”

Denver’s secondary is allowing opponents to throw for 230 yards per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per pass attempt. The Broncos allowed Kansas City to throw for 433 yards last week, and Indianapolis threw for 325 yards on them earlier this season.

Since San Diego throws for 312 yards per game on an impressive 8.5 yards per pass attempt, there’s no reason to think Rivers won’t have another monster game against the Broncos.

MNF Betting Preview: Broncos v Chargers
By Jeff Mattingly

Denver enters this week with a chance to improve its AFC West standing with a win against a division rival for the second straight week, following a 59-29 blowout home win over the Kansas City Chiefs. "I think that was really the best example of a complementary football game that we've put together all year," head coach Josh McDaniels said. "I think it's a good thing for our team to be reinforced with what you're really capable of doing." A primetime matchup with the Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium is nothing new for the Broncos, as this game marks the fourth-straight year the teams have met in the national spotlight. Denver dropped two of those three games, with the exception being last season's 34-23 win on Monday Night Football. The team is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 10 points.

The Broncos will be making their 62nd appearance on Monday Night Football, which is tied for fourth-most in league history. "You're the only game in town - the only ones playing," said Justin Bannan. "So if we can go out and show the world what we're all about, that'd be great." Many anticipate a highly-offensive game, considering that the teams rank as the top two offensive units in the AFC in passes covering at least 20 yards and 40-plus yards, with 110 such plays combined. Quarterback Kyle Orton threw for a career-best 3,802 yards last season and is on pace to shatter that mark during the 2010-11 campaign.

San Diego enjoyed a bye week last week after picking up a 29-23 win at Houston despite missing Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates. He is likely going to miss tonight's contest with a right foot injury. "I'm going to do all I can do to get out there against Denver," he stated. "Whether I can do it or not, I'm always trying to play." Quarterback Philip Rivers would love to have his main weapon in the huddle, especially considering he has a 6-3 record against the Broncos in his career. He's completed 67.1 percent of his 222 attempts for 2,078 yards, with 14 touchdowns against just five interceptions in those games. The team is 1-3 ATS when playing on Monday night the past three years.

The Chargers have won seven consecutive November games and know that another division loss could be fatal in their attempt to win another AFC West title. "We're a win away from first place and a loss away from last place," said Rivers. "Everybody's in it and there's still a long way to go." San Diego has won six of the past eight meetings, but Denver owns a 20-14 record versus San Diego in November. The bye week did what head coach Norv Turner wanted it to do. "We've been able to get healthy in a number of areas," he stated. "We are rested." Neither running back Ryan Mathews or Gates has practiced since their last game.

Bettors will likely lay the Broncos due to their 7-18-1 ATS mark versus the AFC West, while the Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a bye week.

MNF - Broncos at Chargers
By Kevin Rogers

Two below .500 AFC West rivals meet in Southern California on Monday night to wrap up Week 11 in the NFL when the 3-6 Broncos visit the 4-5 Chargers. San Diego is fresh off the bye, while Denver snapped a four-game skid with a blowout win over Kansas City.

If there was ever any desperation for a team, it came last week for the Broncos in a crucial home divisional game against the Chiefs. Denver returned from the bye needing a strong performance in the worst way and received that in a 49-29 crushing of Kansas City. The Broncos jumped out to a 35-0 lead in the second quarter thanks to three early touchdown passes by Kyle Orton. The Chiefs picked up plenty of mop-up yards and points late in the game, but Kansas City failed to take over first place in the AFC West with its second straight loss.

Denver won as one-point home underdogs, its first victory in three tries this season when getting points at Invesco Field (lost to Colts and Jets). With the shootout win over the Chiefs, the Broncos improved to 7-2 to the 'over' this season. Denver's defense has been chewed up this season, thanks to the season-ending pectoral injury to linebacker Elvis Dumervil in the preseason. The offense hasn't been effective on the highway, scoring 17 points or less in three of four road games.

The Chargers are slowly getting back in the division race following a 2-5 start as San Diego is coming off consecutive victories over Tennessee and Houston. The offense has been paced by the career-season put up by quarterback Philip Rivers, who has thrown for a league-best 2944 yards and 19 touchdowns. The amazing part behind this aerial attack is the lack of name-weapons that Rivers has at his disposal with Vincent Jackson missing the entire season, while Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates missed the Houston win with a foot injury.

The Bolts and Texans played a back-and-forth affair at Reliant Stadium in Week 9 with San Diego coming out on top, 29-23 as three-point favorites. That victory was the first in five tries on the road for Norv Turner's team, who owns an 0-2 mark inside the AFC West following losses at Kansas City and Oakland. The San Diego offense has seen plenty of success this season, but broke out for good in the Houston and Tennessee victories by putting up a combined 62 points.

The oddsmakers are starting to notice the air attack by this Chargers' team as it regards to totals. San Diego saw its first 50 total this season against Houston, only its second game with a total of 50 or more since 2006 (season finale of 2008 against Denver, a 52-21 win). The tally goes to three with this week's total at 50 ½, as the Broncos will have their first total above 47 on Monday night (finished 'under' the total against the Colts in Week 3).

Last season, these two teams played on Monday night in San Diego with the Broncos pulling out a 34-23 triumph as 3 ½-point underdogs. That was the sixth straight victory to start the 2009 campaign for Josh McDaniels' club, as Denver would win only two of its last 10 games to finish 8-8. Eddie Royal was responsible for a pair of special teams scores as he took both a punt and kickoff for a score, while Orton tossed two touchdowns for the Broncos.

San Diego exacted revenge in Week 11 with a 32-3 stomping at Invesco Field as 6 ½-point 'chalk.' The Chargers took care of business with four field goals from Nate Kaeding, as the Bolts rushed for 203 yards to take over first place for good in the division. San Diego is now 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS since 2009 in the month of November, proving that this team turns the corner when necessary.

The Broncos are 4-5 ATS as a road underdog under McDaniels, including a 1-3 ATS mark this season with the lone win coming at Tennessee in Week 4. The Chargers own a 3-1 ATS ledger as home favorites this season, while compiling a 17-10-1 ATS since Turner's arrival in 2007 when laying points at Qualcomm Stadium. San Diego is 5-4 ATS at home against division opponents in Turner's tenure, with three of the non-covers coming as double-digit 'chalk.'

The Chargers are listed as 9 ½-point favorites across the board, while the total is set at 50. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM from Qualcomm Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

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Tips and Trends

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

BRONCOS: Denver played their best game of the season last week, a 49-29 SU thrashing of Kansas City. The Broncos need every win they can get, as they are only 3-6 both SU and ATS this year. Similar to San Diego, the Broncos have had the exact same result both SU and ATS in each game this season. Tonight will represent the 2nd time this season that Denver has been an underdog more than a TD. QB Kyle Orton has had an amazing season in his own right, as he's 2nd in the NFL with 2,806 YDS passing this year. Orton is completing better than 62% of his passes this season, with 16 TD's against 5 INT's. The Broncos can only move the ball through the air this year, because they have the worst ground attack in the NFL this year. Denver must play their best game of the season defensively if they are to have any opportunity of stealing this road game tonight. For the season, the Broncos are allowing 28 PPG, 3rd worst in the league. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Denver is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games against the AFC West. The Broncos are 6-19-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win.

Broncos are 2-5 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog.
Over is 10-1 last 11 games against the AFC.

Key Injuries - WR Eddie Royal (hamstring) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27

CHARGERS: (-9.5, O/U 50) San Diego is starting their usual trek up the standings as we get further into the season. The Chargers are only 4-5 SU on the year, but everyone in the NFL knows how talented this team is. San Diego is also 4-5 ATS this season, with every game having the same result both SU and ATS. San Diego is 2-2 ATS as a touchdown or more favorite this year. QB Philip Rivers has thrown for an NFL high 2,944 YDS this season, while completing 65% of his attempts. Rivers is the unquestioned leader of the Chargers, and is the biggest reason why San Diego is averaging 26.6 PPG this year. San Diego is the only team that is averaging more than 300 passing YPG this season. TE Antonio Gates is playing through pain this year, yet still has 40 receptions and 9 TD's this year. The Chargers defense will be tested tonight by the Broncos aerial attack. San Diego is only allowing 274.7 YPG this year, 2nd fewest in the NFL. The Chargers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of between 3.5 and 10 PTS. San Diego is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Chargers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. San Diego is 0-3-1 ATS against a team with a losing record.

Chargers are 5-0 ATS last 5 games played in November.
Over is 13-3 last 16 games following a ATS win.

Key Injuries - WR Malcolm Floyd (hamstring) is probable.

Projected Score: 34 (OVER-Total of the Day)