Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
The Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at Reliant Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Texans listed as 4-point favorites versus the Titans, while the game's total is sitting at 48½.
The Titans defeated Buffalo 41-17 as an 8-point favorite in Week 10. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41).
Chris Johnson rushed for 132 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries and he also caught nine passes for 100 yards for Tennessee in the win.
The Texans lost to Indianapolis 20-17 as a 7.5-point underdog in Week 9. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (50.5).
Matt Schaub threw for 311 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions for Houston, while Andre Johnson had 10 receptions for 103 yards.
Current streak:
Tennessee has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Tennessee: 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS
Houston: 5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS
Tennessee most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the division are 5-5
Houston most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Houston is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home
Next up:
Tennessee home to Arizona, Sunday, November 29
Houston home to Indianapolis, Sunday, November 29
TENNESSEE (3 - 6) at HOUSTON (5 - 4)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
TENNESSEE at HOUSTON
TENNESSEE: 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
HOUSTON: 12-3 Over vs. division
AFC South Showdown
By Judd Hall
Week 11 of the NFL season closes out with a tough test for bettors as Tennessee (3-6 straight up, 4-5 against the spread) and Houston (5-4 SU, ATS) gear up for ESPN’s Monday Night Football at 8:35 p.m. EST. Gamblers must decide whether to put their money down on a team that has won three straight games like the Titans or take a chance on a team that is coming off of a tough loss and doesn’t have all their weapons like the Texans.
If we’re going on what the sportsbooks think, then the Texans are your play as they’re listed as 4 ½-point home favorites with a total of 48. Sportsbook.com shows that 58 percent of the money they are seeing has bettors taking the Titans to cover the spread. Meanwhile, a mindboggling 97 percent of the action on the money line is on Tennessee to win outright for a plus-180 return (risk $100 to win $180).
Bodog’s sportsbook manager, Richard Gardner, helps explain why the line is set as it is. “Obviously when creating a number on a game we take into consideration how a team is currently playing. That means we’re taking into account public perception, but only for a half-point to one-point as the line already reflects that a team is hot at the moment.”
So are the Titans really worth that kind of action?
After the first six games of the season, Tennessee would have been avoided like Amy Winehouse at a nudist colony. The Titans opened the year with six straight losses with Kerry Collins under center, which is shocking since they were 13-3 the season before.
Titans head coach Jeff Fisher was pushed into starting Vince Young at quarterback by owner Bud Adams during the bye week. Tennessee has jumped out to three straight wins with Young running the offense on the field. The former Longhorn has completed 71 percent of his passes for 507 yards and two touchdowns during this win streak.
Tennessee has also been fairly effective at moving the chains on third down, converting 52 percent of those opportunities since the open date. Young, however, can’t lay claim to those conversions with his arm as he’s completed 10 of his 19 passes on third down. That’s why they’ve been relying on Chris Johnson to keep the offense going.
Johnson has been a force to be reckoned with over the last three games. He’s carried the ball 75 times for 495 rushing yards and six touchdowns during this stretch.
Despite the strong efforts of Johnson and Young, VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Bruce Marshall believes the winning starts on the other side of the ball. “More than Young, the fact the Titans have been getting healthier on defense has been a big boost. Remember, Tennessee was reduced to a pair of rookie CBs in October, including that disaster at New England, but has been getting healthier in the secondary; over the last two weeks, Cortland Finnegan, Vincent Fuller, and Rod Hood all have recorded interceptions TDs.”
“Young has not hurt the team and been an upgrade from this year's version of Kerry Collins, but Johnson's long-distance threat is really what makes the offense tick.” Marshall continues, “The bye week after the NE loss came at a good time, too; psychologically, the Titans were more easily able to put that 0-6 start behind them and start anew after the bye week. Credit also goes to Jeff Fisher for that, and keeping the troops together after that disastrous start.”
Tennessee’s defense will get a chance to show what they can do against the Texans. Houston went into its last meeting against the Colts knowing they were going to be without the talented tight end Owen Daniels. And while they held their own, the Texans still wound up losing to Indy as 7 ½-point road pups, 20-17.
Since Daniels is out for the year, Andre Johnson will be expected to pick up more of the catches now. Johnson had collected 10 receptions for 103 yards, but no scores – it’s his fourth straight game without a touchdown.
Marshall believes that the Texans must get their stopping unit in gear to be successful on the attack. “More than anything, Houston's improved play has been a result of its defense tightening the screws. No one has run effectively vs. this defense in over a month, a significant change from the first few weeks of the season. Check out the recent trend of ‘unders’ in its games; Schaub is able to run a bit more conservative offensive attack and slow down the pace of the game because his defense hasn't been putting him in tough holes the past several games (although they did have to rally from 3-13 at halftime vs. the Colts),” He concludes, “Notice in the Indy game how Peyton Manning basically abandoned the run, especially in the first half when throwing 40 mostly short passes. Opponents are starting to alter their gameplans based upon the Texas' new-found ability to stop the run, which is the real key to this team making a playoff push.”
Houston has been average at best when playing at Reliant Stadium, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at home. The Titans are just 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS so far on games outside of Nashville.
The home team has often walked away with the win in this game as evidenced by a 6-4 SU mark, but just 5-5 ATS. The ‘over’ has been the top play in this series as it has gone 8-2 in those 10 head-to-head meetings.
If you have been following season long trends, then you’re well aware that the ‘over’ has gone 8-3 this season. However, the ‘under’ is on a two-game streak. The road team is 6-5 SU on Monday night this season, with the visitors going 8-3 ATS for our purposes.
vegasinsider.com
Texans look for sweep
By AllStar.com
At the start of the season this figured to be a matchup of two of the AFC’s best teams. We now know better, but this is still should be a good game. The Titans have won three straight, and feel like they are back on track. Houston is a different story. On paper they have the talent to play with any team in the league, but have had a hard time keeping momentum. The Texans have told us they believe they have to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Look for a steady dose of Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson to control the clock, and keep the red hot Chris Johnson off the field.
Quarterback:
We are not ready to put Vince Young in the Hall Of Fame, but there is no question the Titans have responded to the decision to put him in the lineup. We still wonder why the decision had to come from Owner Bud (the finger) Adams instead of Jeff Fisher. Young’s numbers are not overwhelming (2 TD’s/2 Int’s 86RTG) but opposing teams understand that he is a different kind of weapon then Kerry Collins. We would like to see him stretch the field by throwing deep in order to open up the running game for Johnson.
Matt Schaub brings 17 touchdown passes into the game, but he also brings nine picks. The problem with Schaub all year has been his decision making, and the fact the he continues to try to force throws, which has led to some untimely turnovers. His main weapon is still Andre Johnson, but the Texans were devastated by the loss of TE Owen Daniels who led the team with five TD catches. Schaub had a monster game against the Titans in Week 2 throwing for more than 350 yards. We don’t see those kinds of numbers again against a healthy Titans secondary.
Running Back
It is too bad the Titans have struggled as much as they have in ‘09, because it has kept Chris Johnson from getting the kind of press he deserves. Johnson has been a monster as proven by the fact he became the first back in NFL history to have a 90+ rushing TD, 50+ rushing TD, and 60+ receiving TD in the same game. Since the Titans are keeping Vince Young on a short leash, we expect a steady dose of Johnson. It is tough to argue the game plan since Johnson averages more than six yards per carry. Lyn Dale White has become the forgotten man for the Titans in Johnson’s breakout year with just 59 carries, and 1TD to this point.
For the Texans Steve Slaton continues to be listed as the No. 1 back on the depth chart, but his five fumbles are making that a week to week decision for Head Coach Gary Kubiak. The rushing game for Houston has not been very good, and Slaton and Ryan Moats need to step up in order to take the pressure of Schaub. Moats has been impressive in limited duty. He has as many rushing TD’s as Slaton in half the carries, and averages a yard more per carry then Slaton. For a team that is fighting for its playoff hopes, it may be the time to give Moats more chances, especially against a Titans run defense that has a knack of giving up big plays.
Wide Receiver:
None of the names listed at WR for the Titans are guys that should start thinking about their speeches at Canton anytime soon. We have never been able to figure out why Jeff Fisher settles for guys like Nate Washington instead of going out in free agency or in the draft and getting a legit No. 1. Look at the best teams in the league, and they all have a legit threat for the passing game. It is no surprise that Chris Johnson leads the team with 30 catches. Washington is second with 25, but our point is confirmed when you read that Washington needs one TD catch for a new career high of six.
On the other side of the ball, Andre Johnson is one of the league’s best. He has 4 100 yard games already in ‘09, and has a history of pounding the Titans. Johnson is looking for his third straight 100+ game vs. the Titans, and has averaged 178 in his past two against Tennessee. With the season ending injury to Daniels, and Slaton’s problems holding on to the football, it would not be a surprise to see Johnson get plenty of looks. He will be matched up against one of the league’s best in Cortland Finnegan, but if history repeats itself, it could be a big night for the ESPN the Magazine cover boy.
Defense/Special Teams:
The Titans defense which has been brutal most of the year has started to show signs of life during the three-game win streak. Last week against the Bills, the Titans had two sacks, three tackles for a loss, and four QB hits. The bigger number that stands out is in the turnover department. In the six Tennessee losses, the Titans were -10 in turnover margin. During the win streak, the Titans are +7 with three INT returns for TD’s in the last two games. This could be a factor Monday night if Schaub again tries to force the issue in the passing game.
If you are the Texans, you will see on simple message written on the chalkboard during all defensive meetings this week…”Stop Chris Johnson and we win the Game”. If only it was that simple. Johnson has been the key weapon during the Titans resurgence averaging more than 165 yards rushing PER GAME, not to mention the fact he added 100 yard receiving against the Bills. The Texans will load the box and force Young to beat them with his arm which may contain Johnson rushing the ball, but how the Texans defend him coming out of the backfield will be a major concern.
Key Injuries:
HOU-TE Owen Daniels/knee-(out)
Betting Trends:
Titans are 0-5 ATS against a team with a winning record
Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the AFC South
Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the AFC South
The OVER is 4-0 in the Titans last four games
The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the two teams
The UNDERDOG is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the two teams
What Bettors Need to Know: Titans at Texans
By JEFF GOLD
The “old” team from Houston takes on the “new” team from Houston in a game featuring two clubs that are playing well.
The Texans (5-4 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) have won three of their last four, but lost a heartbreaker to the Colts two weeks ago.
The Titans have won three straight after their surprising 0-6 start.
Line movement
The line has been consistent all week. Most shops opened at 4 and it made it to 4.5 at a few places midweek before resting at 4. The total has been between 48 and 49 all week.
Injury report
Both teams are healthy at this stage of the season. The biggest injury is to Tennessee’s Justin Gage, the Titans’ No. 2 receiver. Gage has been ruled out with a back injury. He hasn’t had a great season with only 22 receptions for 302 yards, but he’s been a solid player throughout his career.
Back to the future
Running back Steve Slaton is having a disappointing season, rushing for only 359 yards with a 3.1 average. He lost the starting job to Ryan Moats two weeks ago because of problems fumbling the ball, but he regained first team status after a good week of practice.
Slaton is the more explosive option out of the backfield but he’s fumbled the ball seven times already this season.
Talking points
Tennessee has enjoyed great success over the years against its division rival. The Titans are 11-4 all-time against the Texans and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Houston is 2-0 SU and against the number in the last two matchups, but Titan players weren’t hiding their confidence heading into Monday’s big game.
“We owe them and they know we owe them,” tight end Bo Scaife told the Tennessean.
Linebacker Keith Bulluck promises to “destroy” Houston’s playoff hopes and secure Tennessee’s fourth consecutive win in the process.
Houston, we don’t have a problem
Andre Johnson is having another monster season but he grabbed headlines for other reasons this week. His uncle and agent, Andre Melton, told ESPN the Magazine that he has a plan to force Houston to trade Johnson if the Texans don’t make the playoffs.
The All-Pro wideout tried his best to squash the story during the week.
“That didn’t come from me,” he told the Houston Chronicle Friday after team practice. “I wish (Melton) hadn’t said what he said, but that’s his opinion. I make my own decisions, and I plan on being here until I retire.”
Born to run
The Titans have looked great in each of their last three games. Tennessee is averaging 35 points per game since Vince Young regained the starting quarterback spot.
The biggest reason for the success is the play of running back Chris Johnson. Johnson is averaging an absurd 6.4 yards per carry and leads the league with 1,091 yards.
Houston is middle of the road at stopping the run, but Johnson ripped the unit apart in the two sides’ first meeting this season. The East Carolina product gained 197 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries.
Extra points
The Texans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss and 5-1 ATS in their last six games against AFC South opponents.
The Titans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when getting between 3.5 and 10 points. They’re also 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog.
The under is 5-1 in Houston’s last six games while the over is 4-0 in Tennessee’s last four road games.
Tennessee (3-6, 4-5 ATS) at Houston (5-4, 5-3-1 ATS)
After beginning the season with six straight losses, the Titans now head to Reliant Stadium in search of their fourth straight victory as they take on the Texans in an AFC South clash.
Tennessee scored a 41-17 win over Buffalo last weekend, cashing as nine-point favorites as they broke open a 17-17 tie by scoring the final 24 points. During their 0-6 start to the season (1-5 ATS), the Titans topped the 17-point mark only once, but since coach Jeff Fisher made the switch at QB from Kerry Collins to Vince Young, the offense has exploded for 30 or more in three consecutive SU and ATS wins.
The Titans still ranks just 21st in total offense (332 yards per game), but they now have the league’s second-best rushing attack at 161.8 ypg. RB Chris Johnson leads the NFL in rushing and during the winning streak, the second-year pro has 495 rushing yards, 136 receiving yards and six total touchdowns. On the downside, Tennessee’s defense is 30th in the 32-team NFL in points-allowed (28.3 per game) and 31st in pass defense (270.4 ypg, just a yard better than lowly Detroit).
Houston won three of its last four (3-0-1 ATS) going into its bye last week. The Texans last played on Nov. 8 when they went to Indianapolis and fell 20-17, covering as 7½-point underdogs. Houston’s offense ranks sixth in the league at 374.9 ypg, with QB Matt Schaub leading the third most-prolific passing attack at 283.7 ypg. The Texans are middle of the pack when it comes to defense, ranking 17th in total defense (332.1 ypg), but they have not been able to get to opposing quarterbacks this season, ranking next to last in sacks with just 11.
These teams played a shootout in Week 2 this season with Schaub throwing for 357 yards and four TDs to lead the Texans to a 34-31 road win as seven-point road ‘dogs. Houston has won the last two meetings (2-0 ATS) after dropping seven in a row to the Titans (6-1 ATS). The underdog is on a 9-3 ATS streak in the last 12 meetings.
Tennessee is on ATS slides of 2-5 on the road, 0-5 against winning teams and 1-5 against AFC South rivals, but the Titans are on positive pointspread runs of 4-0 in November, 16-7 as an underdog and 4-1 in Week 11 games. Houston is on modest ATS runs of 4-0 in November games, 5-1 against AFC South rivals and 5-2 in Week 11.
The Titans are on “over” streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-1 in November and 5-1 against AFC squads. The Texans have topped the total in 20 of 27 against the AFC South but they’re also on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 after a bye week, 8-2 after a spread-cover and 7-2 against teams with a losing record. In this rivalry, the over has been the play in six of the last seven overall and five of the last six in Houston.
Finally, the last two Monday Night Football games have stayed under the total following a 19-5-1 “over” streak. The over is 8-3 on Monday this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Houston hungry for playoff run on Monday night
By Doug Upstone
Two weeks after Texans suffered a hard-fought 20-17 defeat in Indianapolis; their run defense will be put to the test by league rushing leader Chris Johnson, who had a career day in Tennessees Week 2 home loss to them with 284 total yards and three touchdowns. But Johnson, who rushed for 197 yards and two scores and caught a 69-yard touchdown pass from Kerry Collins that day, had the spotlight stolen from him by Matt Schaub (357 yards, four touchdown passes) as Houston won for just the second time in Nashville in eight tries.
The 5-4 Texans have had 15 days ponder its heartbreaking loss at Indy, as Kris Browns last second potential game-tying 42-yard field goal attempt sailed wide left, and now they prepare for first true franchise run toward the postseason. How Houston (5-3-1 ATS) comes out on Monday night vs. Tennessee will say a lot about how much theyve grown. They have won two straight against Tennessee, but only by a combined four points. At home, they are just 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four meetings and 4-10 ATS against a team who won last game by 14 or more points.
The Tennessee Titans (3-6, 4-5 ATS) have opened a Pandoras Box of questions in winning three in a row after losing first six games of the season. Should Tennessee and coach Jeff Fisher be praised for turning season around or chastised for protracted beginning of the year? Coach Fisher, who didnt appear to be any fan of Vince Young, was left with little choice but to play the former Texas star after humbling 59-0 pasting by New England.
Young has brought energy to the offense in his three starts and been efficient (44-for-62, 507 yards, two touchdowns, one interception) in leading his squad to a trio of wins and covers.
Coach Fishers club is just 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six AFC South contests, however is 12-3 ATS in road games after three or more consecutive wins against the spread.
Sportbet.com has Houston as four-point favorites with a total of 48 and Schaub assuredly will attack the Titans 31st ranked pass defense from the start. The Texans are 13-4 ATS when they gain eight or more net passing yards per attempt and are 12-3 OVER versus division opponents over the last three seasons.
Tennessees running game keys their offense and they are 16-6 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in two straight games. Tonights visitors are 10-2 UNDER on the road revenging a close loss by seven points or less.
Tennessee covers if they run the ball effectively against Houstons 14th ranked run defense. The Texans are not known for gap control, which is real plus for Johnson, who can pop into the secondary in a heartbeat. Last week Buffalo made life tough on the Titans by playing eight-men in the box and press coverage on their unimpressive receivers, before self-destructing. With Houston having two weeks to prepare, Tennessee will see more the same, which means taking shots down the field. Youngs arm is more than strong enough; he just needs the pass catchers to make a few plays. After a mediocre start, the Titans pass rush is coming along and they will need to pressure Schaub. Monday night road teams with only one appearance on the season are 34-17-2 ATS, including 5-2 ATS in 2009.
Houston covers if they create a semblance of a running game with zone-blocking scheme. Granted, the Texans are 28th rushing the pigskin, but Tennessee is nothing special stopping the run (16th) and is vulnerable against teams that run and pass the ball effectively. This helps Schaub, whose been forced to throw the ball too often, which has led to nine picks. Just keeping the Titans honest on defense allows Houston to play to their strength, the passing game, which is the best way to move the ball against them. Though Young has shown greater maturity and better decision-making, a steady pass rush that doesnt allow him to leave the pocket makes a below average passer even worse. Home teams own a record of 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in Texans post-bye week games since 2003.
Monday Night System - Same as last weeks, Play Against home team off a bye hosting a division foe. (12-2 ATS L16Y, 2-0 this season)
Tips and Trends
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Titans: Tennessee is playing their best football of the season, having won 3 straight games. QB Vince Young is managing this offense well, as his team has scored 105 PTS over the past 3 games. Tennessee is rushing the ball well, averaging 200 YPG on the ground over their winning streak. The turnovers that have plagued this team all season is gone. This offense only has 1 turnover over the last 3 games, while forcing 8 themselves on defense. The Titans are looking to avenge a 3 point loss at home earlier this season to Houston.
Titans are 9-1 ATS last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points.
Over is 4-0 last 4 road games.
Key Injuries - DE Jevon Kearse (knee) is questionable.
WR Justin Gage (back) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)
Texans (-4, O/U 48.5): Houston comes off their bye week anxious to rebound from their latest loss. The Texans have yet to lose 2 games in a row all season. The Texans have only won 1 of 4 games at home ATS this year. QB Matt Schaub is playing great this year (2,650 YDS passing and 17 TDs) leading a passing attack that is amongst the best in the NFL. Despite their prolific offense, this Texans team has played to the under in 5 of the last 6 games. They've held 5 straight opponents to under 100 YDS rushing. They will need to be at their best again tonight, as earlier this season they gave up 240 YDS on the ground to the Titans.
Texans are 6-0 ATS last 6 games following a SU loss.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games overall.
Key Injuries - TE Owen Daniels (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24